Z-Swing

Carlos Gonzalez, CarGo – OF – Colorado Rockies

Carlos Gonzalez is a superior talent and will develop into a 25/25 or 35/15 player with superior defensive skills. This is of course true — IF — CarGo can get an idea of what the strike-zone is.

The sky is the limit with this guy, but the basement is not that pretty. We’re talking serial killer-type basement, with limbs in the freezer and Detroit Lions games  on a constant loop. We’re talking Wily Mo Pena + Juan Encarnacion + A Bit More Defense. 30% K-rate, and 5%-BB rate type basement.

Last year Baseball Prospectus came in with Carlos Gonzalez at 26th overall, while Baseball America had him at 22nd overall.  CarGo is a great player, but that strike-out rate and swing-rate are potential deal-breakers. Whether or not these two things are tied to skill level or just the lack of desire to improve is up for debate.

As I mentioned in the Dexter Fowler article, the Rockies outfield is crowded.  Right now, it looks like the left-field job is a toss up between Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith. While Gonzalez has more upside, it looks like S. Smith is more MLB-ready which I’ll get into in the next article.

Carlos Gonzalez: Statistically Speaking

So the table isn’t particularly beautiful, but it is courtesy of fangraphs.com. Open Office was unstoppable in converting 5% to .050, but it’s 9am on a Saturday so we’ll wage that war at a later point in time.

Season	Team	G	AB	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2006	DB (A+)	104	403	452	121	61	35	4	21	82	94	30	104	15	8	0.3
2006	DB (AA)	18	61	69	13	5	6	0	2	11	5	7	12	1	0	0.213
2007	DB (AA)	120	458	499	131	79	33	3	16	63	75	32	103	9	5	0.286
2007	DB (AAA)	10	42	48	13	7	5	0	1	9	11	6	6	1	0	0.31
2008	A’s (AAA)	46	173	189	49	35	9	1	4	23	28	16	35	1	1	0.283
2008	A’s	85	302	316	73	46	22	1	4	31	26	13	81	4	1	0.242
Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
2006	DB (A+)	0.069	0.258	0.29	0.356	0.563	0.919	0.263	0.36	78	16.8	0.392
2006	DB (AA)	0.103	0.197	0.58	0.294	0.41	0.704	0.197	0.234	7.8	0.4	0.328
2007	DB (AA)	0.065	0.225	0.31	0.33	0.476	0.806	0.19	0.339	69.4	9.9	0.357
2007	DB (AAA)	0.125	0.143	1	0.396	0.5	0.896	0.19	0.343	8.4	2	0.392
2008	A’s (AAA)	0.085	0.202	0.46	0.344	0.416	0.76	0.133	0.336	22.8	-2.8	0.329
2008	A’s	0.041	0.268	0.16	0.273	0.361	0.634	0.119	0.318	24.9	-13.1	0.278

The Strike-Out Rate stands out, as Gonzalez constantly puts up about 25%. It’s somewhat comical that whenever there’s a small sample size warning, Gonzalez has cut down on his K-Rate. His walk rate is atrocious for someone who strikes out that much.

We’ve almost got all of the bad out of the way:  Carlos Gonzalez swings at everything, absolutely everything.  Dave Cameron over at fangraphs put together an analysis of Cargo and his absolutely ridiculous Swing Rate, and O-Swing Rate (how often does he swing at pitches outside the zone). I really can’t praise the gentlemen over at fangraphs enough for putting together smart analysis and putting together the stats in an easily readable package.

Carlos Gonzalez in the Venezuelan Winter League: A New Hope

Carlos Gonzalez Regular Season VWL numbers:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
ZUL	VWL	0.292	25	89	8	26	2	0	2	14	34	11	21	1	1	0.369	0.382	0.751

MLB LINK

The 21 strike-outs in 100 PA, seems about in-line with Gonzalez’s regular numbers but an 11% BB rate is a nice improvement.  When you follow it up with his playoff numbers, we might just be on to something.

Gonzalez’s Venezuelan WL Playoff Numbers

Name	Team	POS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS
Carlos Gonzalez	ZUL	OF	14	45	5	13	3	0	2	6	22	11	13	1	0	0.439	0.489	0.289	0.927

MLB LINK

Of course there is the requisite small sample size warning, but he walked 11 times in 14 games. Maybe Carlos is starting to come due, and understand the game?

Opportunity and Final Analysis

The Rockies starting left-fielder job is about an open a competition as there is. Currently Gonzalez is listed as the starting left-fielder, but other than Brad Hawpe in RF no-one’s assured a job. (CBS seems to have the most-updated Depth Charts, why? no-one knows)

Gonzalez could hold onto the job with a strong camp, but Major League Ready Seth Smith could also nab the job.  Matt Murton was once listed as one of the Cubs’ better prospects, so technically he’s also got a shot at the job.  If Dexter Fowler breaks camp with the starting CF job, there’s a chance that Clint Hurdle could even move Ryan Spillbroghs over to left. If Spillbroghs ends up in CF, Scott Podsednik may steal the LF job as the Rockies desperately need a lead-off hitter.

There’s probably a few more possibilities, but for the most part — those are the more likely scenarios.

I have Gonzalez listed as a top-100 OF, as odds are that he’ll break camp with the job.  We all know how hitter-friendly Coors Field is, and Gonzalez has pop.  Even if Gonzalez can get his BB-Rate up to 8 or 9 percent, it’ll make a 20 percent K-Rate more palatable.

Gonzalez has about a 75 percent chance of breaking camp with the job, and I’d imagine he’d bottom out at about 350AB.  The Rockies should be looking to shop one of their young outfielders, or veterans as the depth is nutty.

Carlos Gonzalez has the opportunity to put up top-30 OF numbers if everything goes well, but a more realistic goal is top-50.

Gonzalez is one of my favourite sleepers going into 2009, but the bust potential is massive.

If you buy Cargo’s hype, then you better have a back-up plan or at least have suitable replacements on the waiver-wire.  He could be a very nice late round gamble though as there are very few players that you can nab in the very late rounds that have the potential to put up early mid-round numbers. Most of them have already been through the ringer more than a few times and everyone in your fantasy league will know their name.

If you’re in a keeper league, regardless of Gonzalez’s Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ratings, he’s far from a sure thing.  The risk and reward is exponentially increased when you’re dealing with Gonzalez in a dynasty-type league. Devaluing Gonzalez in a dynasty league is probably a wise move as there are safer “top prospects”.

Photo Provided By Kimberly* Flickr