Yankees

MSG’s The Lineup

MSG Network  is searching for the most overrated best New York based players of all time and you can help them by jacking off the egos of New Yorkers logging on and voting over at MSG.com

Titling the program The Most Overrated Players Of All Time probably wouldn’t appeal to viewers of the MSG Network, so they went with The Lineup.

The Lineup airs on Tuesdays at 10:30 PM, with the next episode airing on the 27th of April.

Speaking of which, my lone encounter with the MSG Network was catching a Canadian Football League game — Huzzah!  As a Canadian, I love the utter insanity that occurs prior to the snap of the ball in the CFL.  In the NFL, players can move parallel to the line of scrimmage, but any forward movement is a penalty.  In the CFL, wide-receivers (there are generally 5 to 6 of them) assault the line of scrimmage like a disobedient wife.

The LineUp has actually assembled a pretty knowledgeable panel:

Will Leitch made DeadSpin — This is Good.

God Save the Fan was also pretty decent book.  Leitch writes for New York magazine and contributes to the harem of go-to media sluts for any self-indulgent, self-loving, self-pleasuring male:  The New  York Times, GQ and Slate.

Steve Hirdt, the executive vice-president of Elias Sports Bureau, also contributes along with Sparky Lyle.

All of this goodness gets destroyed with the inclusion of Grade-A Jackass, Gary Carter.

In addition to this, MSG has apparently discovered the internetz.  They’ll be giving away free shit in their interactive fantasy game.

When I think of interactive fantasy games, I think some of pretty kinky shit.  I’d imagine there would be Donuts, Maple Syrup, Glory Holes and Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders somewhere in this game.

By playing such a lovely game, you can win terrific prizes:

Doc Gooden signed eightball baseball, anyone?  Memorabilia from Mattingly, Torre, Jackson or Jeter?

Speaking of which, if anyone ever wants anything pimped, share it.  I’ll drive your sales up at least 75% — I promise.  The best part, I charge absolutely nothing.

Yankees

Presents For Red Sox Fans. Jerry Remy, Brad Penny, and Fastballs.

It was like Christmas.

Sportsnet, essentially the Canadian FSN, decided to air the Red Sox / Yankees game on one of their alternate channels.  Don’t get me wrong, I enjoy watching the Jays, but I felt like watching professional baseball tonight (ZING!).  The Jays are currently hosting the AL-West leading Anaheim Angels and I’ll probably make it down for a game tomorrow or Sunday, but tonight featured M. Rzepczynski and S. O’Sullivan — No thanks.

Jerry Remy also returned to the NESN broadcast booth — Good on ‘em for that.

The Sox are getting trounced, however.  The Yankees have a 12 to 1 lead and Bowden’s already thrown 40 pitches after two-thirds of an inning.  It’s not Bowden’s fault though, it’s Big Fat Brad Penny’s.

This is an article about Brad Penny and why he’s so damn mediocre.  It’s also a story about Radar Guns, and why never to trust them.

For Penny, the wheels were put in motion five starts ago against the Baltimore Orioles.  Penny went six strong, yielding a single unearned run.  Penny’s fastball was jumping out of his hand and touched 98mph for the first time in a couple years.  Penny was overthrowing, of course, and while he continued to throw hard in his next start against the Athletics, he also allowed seven earned runs.  Penny’s next two starts were also disturbing as he could barely touch 95mph, let alone average it.

Then came tonight’s game, in all of it’s Multi-Major-Market alliteration hype.  Penny was pounding his fastball in there, hitting the high-90′s regularly against the Yanks.  The pin-stripers still managed to crush fastball after fastball, turning on Penny’s 97mph cheese as if he were Jamie Moyer.

Even former ROY Eric Hinske was crushing Penny’s fastball, which got me thinkin’.

Pitching obviously has three factors:  velocity, deception, and movement. The velocity was there, but the Yanks knew Penny was bringing the cheese because he couldn’t locate his off-speed stuff, so the deception clearly wasn’t.  More importantly and this shouldn’t surprise Red Sox fans, Brad Penny throws one of the straightest fastballs in the league.  In Brad Penny’s hey-day, both his curveball and his fastball were positive pitches in that they were worth negative runs.

In 2008 as a Dodger, Penny’s fastball was predictably awful as it had slowed a full mph to average 92.4mph, but his curveball was still effective.  In 2009, his fastball has regained it’s velocity and effectiveness, but his curveball’s the proud owner of the Worst in Show award.

-- okay, so it was partially Bowden's fault, the Yanks now have a 15-5 lead --

Brad Penny’s fastball has 11.4″ worth of vertical movement whereas the league average is 8ish.  If you’re unfamiliar with pfx, more isn’t always better.  In this case, more is worse, much worse.  Penny’s fastball is as flat as they come, as the backspin counteracts gravity quite severely.  The horizontal movement is even worse, and in this case more is better.  Penny’s fastball only has 4 inches worth of horizontal movement versus the 6″ average.

We’re not talking straight as an arrow, but it’s damn close.  With Penny firing 97mph darts — lawn darts, not precise darts — was it the velocity detracting from the movement?

Ubaldo Jiminez throws hard, and he wasn’t having these issues.  Justin Verlander’s fastball had similar vertical movement, but almost double the horizontal movement. Edwin Jackson and Josh Johnson are next in line, and we begin to find some similarities.  Jackson’s fastball has been fairly average and the same goes for Johnson; it’s their off-speed offerings that’ve kept them dominant. The same goes for the rest of the league leaders in fastball velocity.

Penny’s curveball has maintained it’s vertical drop from previous years, it’s just been epically bad in 2009.  It more than likely has something to do with the massive deterioration of his change-up, a pitch that rarely dives like it used to.

All of this reiterates how important it is for a pitcher to be able to deceive a batter.  Brad Penny’s fastball and change-up are insanely flat and his curveball realistically only has vertical movement.  If you’re a pitcher and you can only control one axis at a time, you’re going to have a lot of games like tonight.

Somehow I’ve made it through 8 innings of this game, even with this 16-7 score.

Yankees

That’s A Lot Of Money For A Band Box

A grand coliseum it is, unfortunately what’s going on inside isn’t gladiatorial at all — it is far more reminiscent of Christians being fed to LIONS.

In the first three games at New Yankee Stadium, the visiting Cleveland Indians have scored, gulp, 37 runs.  The Yankees have managed a respectable,  but not spectacular, 12 Runs.
Read more

Yankees

The Curious Case Of The AL East.

As a native Torontonian and a Blue Jays season ticket holder, I get to behold the beauty that is the Yankees vs. Red Sox reloading period known as Free Agency.  People look at the Yankees and Red Sox as fantasy goldmines but with the recent reloading of their pitching staffs, combined with the maturation of the Rays; I’m curious as to how the rest of the AL EAST will fair.

How will the Orioles and Blue Jays offenses, and to a lesser extent the Yankees, Sox and Rays fair against pitching staff’s consisting of 4 and sometimes 5, potential aces. Unfortunately, it doesn’t end with the starting pitching as the bullpen’s in the AL East are also some of the best in the MLB.

Even in 2008, the numbers were:

BLUE JAYS

LOST: McGowan (Injury), Marcum (Injury), John Parrish, A.J Burnett. GAINED: Brian Burress, Mike Maroth, Matt Clement, Bryan Bullington,

RAYS

LOST: Edwin Jackson and Trever Miller. GAINED: Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier, Brian Shouse

YANKEES

LOST: Muissina (Retirement), Pavano, Ponson GAINED: Sabathia, Burnett

REDSOX

LOST: Timlin, Byrd, Schilling, Aardsma, Smoltz (Injury) GAINED: Tazawa (Japan), Ramon Ramirez, Penny, Smoltz, Saito

ORIOLES

LOST: Burress, Cabrera, Olson, Cormier GAINED: Uehara (Japan), Hendrickson, Rich Hill, David Pauley, Brad Hennessey, John Parrish

Onto the point young man, get to the point!

Blue Jays and Orioles hitters are going to be facing the Rays, Sox, and Yankees 18-19 times each. Which means they’ll be facing an above average cast of stars, a third of their season which doesn’t include anyone outside their division or Jeremy Guthrie, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, etc. etc.

Season	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
Sabathia	BJ	16	10	3.48	34	34	240	226	21	70	205	7.69	2.63	2.93	0.79	0.25	1.23
Burnett	BJ	14	11	3.62	33	32	224	199	21	88	218	8.76	3.54	2.48	0.84	0.24	1.28
Wang	BJ	13	9	3.7	30	30	200	208	11	58	92	4.14	2.61	1.59	0.5	0.269	1.33
Petitte	BJ	12	10	3.9	30	30	192	205	18	51	147	6.89	2.39	2.88	0.84	0.275	1.33
Chamberlain	CH	8	4	3.39	21	21	101	88	9	39	112	9.98	3.48	2.87	0.8	0.236	1.26
Hughes	BJ	9	5	3.35	22	22	125	110	9	46	122	8.78	3.31	2.65	0.65	0.238	1.25
Beckett	BJ	13	8	3.57	29	29	189	176	21	55	176	8.38	2.62	3.2	1	0.248	1.22
Matsuzaka	BJ	12	8	3.58	30	30	184	160	17	77	174	8.51	3.77	2.26	0.83	0.236	1.29
Lester	BJ	12	11	4.02	32	32	212	209	19	88	168	7.13	3.74	1.91	0.81	0.259	1.4
Penny	BJ	8	7	3.92	22	21	130	134	12	42	90	6.23	2.91	2.14	0.83	0.268	1.35
Smoltz	CH	6	5	3.87	15	15	93	95	9	25	78	7.55	2.42	3.12	0.87	0.266	1.29
Bucholz	CH	7	6	4.27	24	24	116	114	13	51	111	8.61	3.96	2.18	1.01	0.258	1.42
Wakefield	BJ	10	8	3.91	28	28	160	151	21	55	107	6.02	3.09	1.95	1.18	0.251	1.29
Kazmir	BJ	10	8	3.8	29	29	162	144	17	74	177	9.83	4.11	2.39	0.94	0.24	1.35
Shields	BJ	14	10	3.65	32	32	212	210	24	44	178	7.56	1.87	4.05	1.02	0.26	1.2
Garza	BJ	11	9	3.85	29	29	183	181	16	63	153	7.52	3.1	2.43	0.79	0.26	1.33
Price	CH	4	5	4.9	16	16	79	84	12	34	59	6.72	3.87	1.74	1.37	0.274	1.49
Sonnanstine	BJ	11	10	3.92	31	31	195	206	25	40	145	6.69	1.85	3.63	1.15	0.273	1.26
Niemann	CH	5	7	4.86	22	22	111	116	17	47	86	6.97	3.81	1.83	1.38	0.27	1.47
Halladay	BJ	17	10	3.18	32	32	241	228	18	44	172	6.42	1.64	3.91	0.67	0.251	1.13
Litsch	BJ	9	11	4.06	27	27	180	190	21	45	108	5.4	2.25	2.4	1.05	0.272	1.31
Purcey	CH	7	8	4.71	24	24	128	132	18	53	105	7.38	3.73	1.98	1.27	0.268	1.45
McGowan	BJ	7	7	3.95	22	22	128	124	12	52	110	7.73	3.66	2.12	0.84	0.256	1.38
Richmond	CH	5	7	4.89	19	19	105	115	17	36	73	6.26	3.09	2.03	1.46	0.28	1.44
Janssen	CH	3	3	3.81	44	0	52	54	4	14	34	5.88	2.42	2.43	0.69	0.269	1.31

BJ: Bill James Projection Model CH: Chone Projection Model when there was no BJ Data.

An Example:

Nick Markakis is one of the best young outfielders in the league, and most people have him improving upon his 20HR in 2008, and 23HR in 2007.  Some think this is a stretch, but it’s the prevailing thought.

Markakis will be facing Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Petitte, Chamberlain, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Penny, Smoltz/Buchholz, Wakefield, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine, Halladay and McGowan with the possibility of Hughes being thrown in there.

Sonnanstine, Penny, Wakefield, and McGowan come in as average players with the possibility of sub-4.00 ERAs.

The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays all have stellar bullpens as well.

The question is whether or not Markakis projections should be adjusted based on the level of competition?

A Non-Math Conclusion — For Now.

As much as I’d like to assume that somehow, someway, the AL EAST pitching will be no better or no worse than it normally is, or the rest of the schedule will even everything out — I CANT! The talent either came from the NL, or within the AL EAST.

Thankfully, other than Alex Rios and Vernon Wells the Blue Jays really do not have any notable offensive fantasy contributors.

The Orioles on the other hand are filled with players that could potentially be effected by not only the front five, but also the depth of the Sox and Yankees. Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Matt Wieters, and Brian Roberts are all going fairly high in 2009. Felix Pie, Adam Jones, Ty Wigginton and Melvin Mora are also on many people’s sleeper lists.

I’m not sure how this will play out, but with so much talent bunched at the top — I’m going to downgrade players on the Orioles and Blue Jays.

Players on the Rays, Yankees and BoSox should roughly stay the same as the O’s and J’s are a mess up front.

If you have the slightest clue as to how this will actually play-out, feel free to comment. For the time-being, I’ll attempt to put together some variety of maths to explain what a reasonable prediction would be a possible unexpected drop in production.

photo courtesy of keith allison flickr

Yankees

A.J. Burnett – Starting Pitcher (SP) – New York Yankees

Determining Burnett’s fantasy value heading into 2009 is akin to flipping a coin, with heads being a healthy 200IP and tails being less than 100IP.

Now, a brief A.J. Burnett time-line (Courtesy of Canada’s Third-Most Awesome Sports Channel):

Dec 18, 2008: Signed as a free agent by the New York Yankees to a five-year contract.
Nov 5, 2008: Filed for free agency.
Sep 25, 2007: Missed 1 game (personal reasons).
Sep 24, 2007: Personal reasons, day-to-day.
Aug 12, 2007: Missed 35 games (right shoulder injury).
Jul 1, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 29).
Jun 28, 2007: Missed 13 games (right shoulder injury).
Jun 19, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 13th).
Jun 13, 2007: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 22, 2006: Missed 69 games (right elbow injury).
May 29, 2006: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow injury).
Apr 22, 2006: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Apr 15, 2006: Missed 10 games (elbow injury).
Apr 1, 2006: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Dec 6, 2005: Signed as a free agent by the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year contract.
Oct 27, 2005: Filed for free agency.
May 31, 2005: Missed 9 games (elbow injury).
May 23, 2005: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jan 17, 2005: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Oct 3, 2004: Missed 19 game (elbow injury).
Sep 19, 2004: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jun 3, 2004: Missed 53 games (elbow surgery).
May 12, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (elbow surgery).
Apr 3, 2004: Elbow surgery, 15-day DL.
Mar 28, 2004: Elbow surgery, sidelined indefinitely.
Dec 20, 2003: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Nov 19, 2003: Activated from the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
Oct 25, 2003: Missed 16 playoff and 139 regular season games (right elbow inflammation).
Apr 26, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL.
Apr 9, 2003: Missed 8 games (right elbow inflammation).
Mar 29, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 21).
Sep 14, 2002: Missed 24 games (right elbow injury).
Aug 19, 2002: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
May 6, 2002: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
May 7, 2001: Missed 29 games (broken right foot).
Apr 24, 2001: Sent on rehabilitation assignment to Brevard County (A).
Mar 31, 2001: Broken right foot, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 23).

When You sign a 5yr-82.5 million dollar contract, you get tossed into the hype machine. There’s a nice post over at fangraphs.com explaining how Burnett’s contract plays out, and their general players current value vs. how much they’re being paid.

So whats the deal with Burnett when it comes to his fantasy value?

If he pitches 200 IP, you’re getting at least 200K, a sub-1.25 WHIP, and round about 3.50ish ERA.  This is pretty much the second tier of starting pitchers. Very few pitchers can get to 230-240 strike-outs in a season, and a healthy Burnett is one of them.  You’re basically getting Edison Volquez’s numbers with a better WHIP, or Brandon Webb’s numbers with a few more K’s.

He’s not quite in the class of Lincecum and Santana but his high K-Rate, really makes up for the slight downgrade in the ERA & WHIP from all-stars like Hamels, and Peavy.

Burnett is now also pitching for the best offense money can buy, which means if he goes 6 — he’ll get a W.  Twenty wins seems more like a basement than a ceiling with that line-up behind him.

STATS: 9.5K per 9, 3.50 BB per 9, 2.5ish K:BB.

So if Burnett goes 230 IP, he’s a top-5 or 6 Pitcher.  Now, please factor in the risk. Burnett’s had elbow issues his entire career, and that probably isn’t going to change.  As ridiculous as the A-Rod speech on wanting to prove to the world that he was indeed worth 200 Million dollars was, it does hold true.

Burnett and Sabathia are going to have to prove their worth.  While this contains no statistical data at all, and is nothing more than a gut feeling; Burnett is going to be using his insane-uncle-charlie quite a bit.  He’ll be throwing hard (is 100mph still a possibility?), and if anything goes wrong he’ll start forcing it.

Obviously, no-one is going to draft Burnett based on 220 IP — So you’ve got to decide upon a number that you feel is reasonable.  Two 15-day DL stints seems about right to me. There’s nothing to Burnett to analyze other than his injuries.  When he’s healthy he puts up devastating numbers, and while his control could use some work — most fantasy players can live with a 1.25-WHIP.

When Burnett is off, Burnett’s got control issues but Burnett’s normally only off when he’s tweaked his elbow. He’s shown he can pitch through minor inflammation in contract years, so the question becomes whether or not he’ll pitch through injuries in New York.

Bank on 160IP from Burnett, plus 50-60 IP from your fantasy league’s replacement level player. If you assume a 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 5-6 K / 9 for your replacement level player you’re getting pretty much Burnett’s 160 strikeout’s plus about 40 from your replacement level guy.  So 220 IP nets you 200 K.

I arrived at these numbers arbitrarily, but in a normal league a 4.50 ERA,  1.40 WHIP and 5-6K per 9 seems fair.

160 IP nets you 62 Earned Runs at a 3.50 ERA, and combine that with 30 ER in 60 IP (4.50ERA) and you’ve got 92 ER in 220 IP. Burnett’s probable 3.50 ERA becomes a 3.76 ERA when you combine it with your 60 IP from a replacement level pitcher.

Burnett’s WHIP will be the most volatile, but I’ll consider the ceiling of 1.30ish + 60IP of 1.40ish. Burnett has 208 BB+H in 160IP, and Replacement has 84 BB+H in 60 IP.  Combined that’s 292 BB+H in 220 IP = 1.33 WHIP.

Our combined AJ Burnett (160IP) + Player X (60 IP) stats are as follows:

3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 200K

The only thing I can add as a native-Torontonian, is that it wont be a contract year for another 5 years.

USEFUL ARTICLE HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/aj-to-ny

and HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/aj-burnett-to-the-yankees

Lovely Elbow Shot courtesy of Larry Page / Flickr