I mentioned that I might just refrain from drafting a catcher earlier today and that statement may just have gotten a bit more realistic with the news that the Washington Natioinals are interested in chalking Wilson Ramos in as their Opening Day catcher.

Pudge is ailing and Ramos is playing quite well this spring and it looks like the Nats are comfortable with him handling the staff. Jesus Flores is finally healthy and absolutely capable of splitting time with Ramos behind the plate. There’s really no need for Ivan Rodriguez at this point unless you’re keeping him around to groom Ramos.

So what’s in store for Ramos both in the short-term and the long-term. In the short-term, you’ve got to be turned off by Ramos’ lackluster BB-Rate but guys can make it worth with a sub-5% BB-Rate. A.J. Pierzynski refuses to walk yet seems to find himself on a fantasy roster at least a couple times a year and he’s been doing this for a decade. Ramos possesses the skills behind the plate to guarantee him at-bats even if he’s slumping offensively, but Flores will provide ample competition.

Ramos does have some pop in his bat and the homers will eventually come, but his stroke seems tailored for line drives. His plate discipline statistics are painful to look at and I cant in my right mind recommend him, but I’m really starting to come around on these quick-batted phenoms that lack discipline.

I think Ramos has a mighty future ahead of him and will put up plenty of seasons in the top-third of the league, but no one keeps a catcher unless he’s dominant. In 2011, given full-time ABs, Ramos will provide one streaky-as-hell roller coaster ride of fun. I’m sure he’ll be on my roster a couple of times and he’s not the worst option out there. If everything goes perfect, Ramos could post the occasional 20-HR season.

Something like Miguel Olivo/Kurt Suzuki with upside and defensive prowess, comes to mind.

One of my favorite things to do early in the season is place small, rather arbitrary, but well-researched bets on win-total over/unders at Bodog’s Sportsbook.

First up, the NL West Projected Win Totals:

Atlanta Braves

Line: Over/Under @ 87.5 WINS

2010 Wins: 91 Wins

2010 Expected Wins: 94

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 87 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 88.5 WINS

GUT FEELING: Over

Subtractions: Rick Ankiel, Melky Cabrera, Matt Diaz, Kyle Farnsworth, Troy Glaus, Derrek Lee, Takashi Saito

Additions: George Sherrill, Scott Linebrink, Dan Uggla

Injuries: Kris Medlin, Out Until Late August.

Pitching: These aren’t the days of Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine, but the Braves has a fairly solid staff with plenty of youngsters that are almost ready to jump in if age takes its toll on Hudson and Lowe. Expecting a repeat of 2010 from Tim Hudson is a huge stretch, as it seemed every ball went his way in 2010.  He and Lowe should both be around or slightly under a 4.00 ERA in 2011. Tommy Hanson is one of the league’s best pitchers and Mike Minor is slowly coming along. Sherrill and Linebrink provide some great depth in the pen and Kimbrel can huck it.

Hitting: The Braves in 2011 will only go as far as their youngsters take ‘em. Jason Heyward is probably the best young player in the game and Freddie Freeman has all sorts of potential. Freeman’s replacing Lee who’s now an Oriole, but Freeman only has to replace Lee’s worst season. I have faith in Freeman topping Lee’s 20HR/80R/80RBI season. Dan Uggla should provide some more pop in this line-up, even with his atrocious average. Chipper Jones might have some issues staying healthy and isn’t anywhere near the player of old.

Conclusion: Florida, Washington and New York were all mediocre-to-bad last year and they’ve made some serious steps and the Phillies have only gotten better. I think the offense makes some huge strides in 2011, but the pitching will definitely regress. I think they go over, but juuuuust barely.

Philadelphia Phillies

Line: Over/Under @ 96.5

2010 Wins: 97

2010 Expected Wins: 95

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 91

EARLY CAIRO: 96.1 WINS

GUT FEELING: Under

Subtractions: Jayson Werth

Additions: Cliff Lee

Pitching: The Four Aces: Halladay, Hamels, Lee and Oswalt. Halladay will be 34, Lee will turn 33 in August, and Oswalt will be 34 in the same month. This is a great four, but someone’s going to get injured. I can’t see all four of them pitching 200+ innings in 2011. Then pen is also loaded with Lidge, Madson, the rejuvenated Contreras, and JC Romero.

Hitting: The hitting isn’t quite as good as the pitching, but it’s close. The loss of Jayson Werth is a killer not only because of his ability but he’s the only rightie with pop in that line-up and he’s been replaced by Dom Brown. Brown’s got all sorts of potential, but Ibanez, Howard and Utley are already lefties. Against left-handers, the Phils will have to rely on the switch hitting Shave Victorino and Jimmy Rollins. Ibanez and Rollins are both getting up there in age and while this offense is definitely great, I’m concerned.

Conclusion: I just cannot see this team staying healthy enough to get to 97 wins.

Florida Marlins

Line: Over/Under @ 82

2010 Wins: 80

2010 Expected Wins: 81

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 84 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 77.3 WINS

GUT FEELING: Under

Subtractions: Dan Uggla, Ronny Paulino, Will Ohman, Cameron Maybin

Additions: John Buck, Randy Choate, Javier Vazquez, Ryan Webb, Omar Infante, Mike Dunn

Injury: Ricky Nolasco is out until March. Omar Povedo is questionable for the regular season.

Pitching: The pitching on this squad is actually pretty amazing. Josh JOhnson always has a shot at the Cy Young, Javy Vazquez seems to go on and off, Ricky Nolasco and Anibal Sanchez will provide great value and Chris Volstad closes things out on a pretty high note. The bullpen will blow a handful of saves, but overall, this is a definite B- type of squad.

Hitting: So, damn, young. I think asking Logan Morrison, Gaby Sanchez, and Mike Stanton to provide the pop might be asking a bit too much. Hanley is still one of the best in the league and Omar Infante isn’t awful (but he’s not Dan Uggla). This is going to be a very, very streaky team.

Conclusion: I think this team is too young to get to .500, but they should be a blast to watch.

New York Mets

Line: 77

2010 Wins: 79

2010 Expected Wins: 81

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 80

EARLY CAIRO: 76.6

GUT FEELING: Over

Subtractions: Henry Blanco, Chris Carter, Elmer Dessens, Pedro Feliciano, Sean Green, Hisanori Takahashi.

Additions: Blaine Boyer, Taylor Buchholz, Chris Capuano, D.J. Carrasco, Scott Hairston, WIllie Harris, Ronny Paulino, Chris Young

Injury: Ronny Paulino is out w/ a 50 game suspension. Johan Santana is out until JUNE.

Pitching: The signing of Chris Young was a great flyer for the Mets. This isn’t a setellar squad, but they’re all pretty competent. I wouldn’t overvalue Johan Santana but he could have a pretty solid season once he gets healthy.

Hitting: The Mets were awful last year and the East curb-stompped ‘em. They were at the bottom of the league when it came to runs scored with only teams like the Nats, Indians, Orioles, Astros, Pirates and Mariners scoring fewer runs.  David Wright is still good. Jason Bay is still good. Jose Reyes is still good and Angel Pagan is incredibly useful. Ike Davis is going up at the same rate that Beltran is coming down.  This team should score more runs, no questions asked.

Conclusion: I think the Mets clear 77 games pretty easily (but I also don’t predict insane greatness for the Phils).  This is probably one of my favorite bets right now.

Washington Nationals

Line: 71.5

2010 Wins: 69

2010 Expected Wins: 72

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 71

EARLY CAIRO: 72.4

GUT FEELING: Over

Subtractions: Miguel Bautista, Adam Dunn, Willie Harris, Adam Kennedy, Kevin Mench, Wil Nieves, Joel Peralta, (essentially Strasburg), Josh WIllingham

Additions: Essentially Wang, Rick Ankiel, Todd Coffey, Jerry Hairston Jr., Adam LaRoche, Matt Stairs, Jason Werth, Henry Rodriguez, Tom Gorzelanny

Pitching: Livan Hernandez will do whatever Hernandez does, this time without the wild streak of incredibly lucky pitching. It was May 25th before his ERA topped 2.00!!! Unfortunately, there’s no strasburg but Jordan Zimmermann is back, along with Tom Gorzelanny and John Lannan. Chein-Ming Wang also has a shot in hell of cracking the rotation.  This isn’t an *awful* staff, but it’s not very good either.

Hitting: On offense, there’s a huge set of upgrades. Ivan Rodriguez can still play, as can Ankiel, and Nyjer Morgan. Jayson Werth got a giant contract and LaRoche did pretty well for himself. Ryan Zimmerman’s probably the best of the bunch though and with any help, he could eventually put up an MVP-type year.  Up the middle, Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa are youngsters without too much upside but they’re not the worst in the league. I like this offense eventhough there’s some OBP issues.

Conclusion: Yup, even with lack luster pitching, this team gets over the hump. I can see the Nats winning 75-76 games this year.

Entering the year, everyone knew that Washington was going to have some serious problems with their rotation but, at the very least, their offense was going to be respectable.

Jim Bowden had assembled some terrific young talent, and brought in a couple key free agents.  Unfortunately, the Washington Nationals found a way to let their premiere talent waste away on the bench, or in the minors, while trotting out league average scrubs day in, and day out.

To many, it appeared as though Bowden was building a fantasy baseball squad, where Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham would fill the UTIL spots while Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Corey Patterson, Willie Harris and Austin Kearns would split time in the outfield.

Elijah Dukes looked to have broken through in 2008, leaving the past behind, and becoming an actual ball-player.  Dukes’ was a terrific power/speed guy that managed to get on base at a .386-clip in 2008 — things were lookin’ up.

Lastings Milledge had a realistic shot at 20 HR / 20 SB this year, but we all know how that turned out.  Everyone understands that the kid doesn’t listen, won’t take a walk, and strikes out too much, but the talent is definitely there.

So rather than giving these two legitimate shots of improving as ball-players, the Washington Nationals decided that 30-year old Josh Willingham, and 29-year old Austin Kearns were going to be the future of their franchise.

Willingham has had a spectacular year, posting a .300 AVG /.412 OBP/.933 OPS slash-line in 2009, but he’s also the proud owner of a .329 BABIP and 20% HR/FB ratio.   When we look at 2009, we’re looking at Josh Willingham’s ceiling as a ballplayer.

Austin Kearns has been under the Mendoza line for almost the entire year, but has still managed 210 plate appearances.

Nyjer Morgan, acquired in the Milledge-deal,  provides a nice little spark plug and an unholy defensive improvement, but why are the Nationals trading for outfielders to begin with?

Jim Bowden and Manny Acta are both gone now, but they’ve left one hell of a mess. A mess that Mike Rizzo is attempting to clean up by trading Nick Johnson, who’s departure essentially freed up an outfield spot as Adam Dunn slid over to first base.

With that said, Elijah Dukes has found himself recalled to the Big Club.  It was around this time last year that Elijah Dukes started to catch fire and absolutely rake.  In 2009, much like 2008, it’ll probably come down to AB’s and not much else.  Dukes destroyed AAA pitching over the past month, posting a 1.13 BB/K ratio to compliment his .943 OPS.

Last night against the Pirates, Riggleman trotted Dukes out in the number six spot.  It’s a great spot for Dukes, hitting after Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham, and should increase his RBI numbers substantially.  He may have the Catcher (Bard/Flores,) Second Baseman (Hernandez/Gonzalez,) and Pitcher hitting after him, but at least he’s not forced to hit after Christian Guzman and his .322 OBP.

At the start of the season, I predicted that Elijah Dukes and Washington’s incredibly solid offense would put up fairly surprising numbers.  Little did I know that Dukes would find his ass on the bench, and then in the Minors.  I’m still not ready to admit that I was wrong because there’s no explanation for the shit-show that went down in Washington but I’d recommend picking up Elijah Dukes as soon as possible, especially if he starts getting regular at-bats.

I’m left to wonder what kind of numbers Dukes would be sitting on if Acta had shown enough trust in him to give him regular at-bats.  The Nationals have the worst pitching in the league by a country mile, and I’ll never be able to wrap my head around why the Manager and General Manager didn’t let their young guys play.

Maybe I’m just clinging to the past, unable to admit that I was simply incorrect.

Jordan Zimmermann busted out of the gate and got shit poppin’ by shutting down two half-decent offenses in the Mets and Braves.  Zimmermann hasn’t looked nearly as dominant in the month of May, posting a 6.98 ERA in 5 May starts.  While May’s been a very forgettable month for Jordan Zimmermann, there have been a couple bright spots:

Zimmermann’s still posting a strike-out per inning and his 31Ks are good for 10th in the bigs over the last month.  More importantly, Zimmermann’s keeping his BB% rate under 3 batters per 9 which translates into a 3.44 K:BB.

Along with solid control, Zimmermann’s mixing his pitches well and attacking hitters with a 66.5% first pitch strike rate (MLB AVG is 57.8%.)

Aside from a couple of rate-stats, the only other bright spot is Zimmermann’s final May start against the Orioles.  The Orioles have a surprisingly effective offense, so going 7 IP with 6H, 1BB, 1HR and 8K is quite an achievement.

So is Zimmermann worth buying low?

Zimmermann’s cumulative ERA of 5.71 is quite a bit higher than his FIP of 4.26. The incompetence of the Nationals’ last placed defense will generally render an ERA higher than expected, but Zimmermann’s still been quite unlucky.

Zimmermann’s currently only stranding 66.5% of batters, including an awful LOB of 58% in the month of May.  In addition, batters are hitting .343 on balls in play off of Zimmerman which should regress to the .300-range.

Zimmermann does have quite a bit of break-through potential as he’s got the hard-part, the control part, down pat.  If a 4.00-4.25 ERA with great strike-out numbers plays in your league, Zimmermann has enough potential to outweigh the rookie-risk.

Unfortunately, Zimmermann and the Nationals have one-heck-offa-schedule coming up:

at Philly

vs. SF

vs. NYM

vs. Cinci

at Tampa

at New York

vs. Toronto

vs. Boston

San Francisco and the injury-plagued Mets are the only breathers on the Nationals’ schedule, and Zimmermann’s not even afforded the luxury of playing them on the road at two of the friendlier pitchers-parks out there.  He’s definitely got the stuff, but performing better than your statistics suggest doesn’t mean squat when you’ve got a schedule like that coming up.

Considering that Zimmermann will undoubtedly suffer from the late season dead arm syndrome that almost all rookies go through, he’s a risky add — but high-strikeout numbers make up for a whooooole lot…

During my injury induced hiatus, Washington Nationals’ super-shortstop Christian Guzman did the impossible: Christian Guzman took a walk, actually two walks!

In back-to-back games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Guzman took a base on balls in each game.  Unfortunately, his On-Base Percentage (.382) no longer matches his batting average (.373)

Walk? No!

As I lamented in the pre-season, Guzman blows my mind with his turn-around since missing the entire 2006 season with a shoulder injury.  A .260 hitter prior to the injury, Guzman has posted two straight seasons of a .300 batting average, and is well on his way to his third consecutive .300+ season.  The ZiPS projection system has Guzman hitting .315 for the rest of the 2009 season, which would give him a year-end batting average of .332!

Christian Guzman’s currently sporting a .422 batting average on balls in play, and is only hitting 12% of pitches for line-drives; so we’d expect his batting average to come down.  Although I’d also expect his Line-Drive Rate to increase as his Hamstring heals.  Historically Guzman’s always sported a high BABIP, and .350-to-.360 on balls in play isn’t out of the question.

Guzman’s plate discipline statistics do not suggest a change in approach, but rather a return to health.  Since his 2006 surgery, Guzman’s seeing less pitches inside of the zone and he’s swinging at more pitches outside of the zone.  This is not a recipe for success, but if he continues to make solid contact when he hits the ball, there’s probably no reason to worry.

Guzman’s simply refusing to hit fly-balls, and insisting on using his plus-speed to leg out groundballs and line-drives.  Guzman may no longer steal 28 bases like he did in his Minnesota years, but he’ll use that speed to get on base.  When the Nationals are healthy, Guzman will score plenty of runs.  Assuming Guzman hikes his BB% rate up towards his career-norm of 5 or 6 percent rather than his current 1.5%, his OPS will continue to astound and float around the .800 mark.

If you’re in a league that counts hits, Guzman’s definitely your man. I still cannot fully get behind Guzman’s ridiculous approach, but going into the season he was available for dirt cheap and he’s probably still out there in a good chunk of standard leagues.

The Washington Nationals Won!

vs.

President Obama Declares Amnesty for CIA Torture Mongers

I’ll start with the Nationals winning their first game as I watch the season premiere of The Deadliest Catch Season 5 and doze off, hopefully before 2:00 AM.

Joe Blanton looked somewhat solid, going 6 Innings and ONLY allowing 3 runs. I’m not sure what broke Joe Blanton, but I’ve got a feeling moving from Oakland to Philadelphia certainly helped.

1. Elijah Dukes hit 5th, played centerfield, and continued to smash the ball to the tune of a .360 Batting Average.  Dukes hit another Home Run and I can’t help but continue to hate Manny Acta for playing Austin Kearns over Dukes to start the season.
2. Christian Guzman didn’t play tonight, but he continues to blow my mind.  Guzman used to have issues getting his OBP to .300 and now he’s hitting above .300 with a solid walk rate.  I never would have called his 2008 in a million years, and I couldn’t fathom Guzman ever repeating it.
3. Nick Johnson hitting second is a SABR-Magicians dream.  It’s nice to see the Nationals making use of Nick the Stick.  I still think that so long as Johnson’s healthy, he’s a viable option in most fantasy leagues.
4. Zimmerman’s only batting .243, but the earth will end before he gets moved out of that three-hole.  If Zimmerman can stay healthy, he’s going to be a steal. I would however like to see Dukes in the 3-hole at some point during the season.
5. Hanrahan came in, even if it wasn’t a save situation.  I think Hanrahan eventually ends up with 20+ Saves.  The only caveat: The Nationals win at least 21 Games.

After a rain-out last night, the new and improved Washington Nationals, sans Lastings Milledge, looked like a solid ball club. It’s one of those addition by subtraction things — moving Milledge to Syracuse is akin to taking Valtrex to reduce your herpes outbreaks:  The problem’s still there, but at least it’s no longer visible.

I still think their pitching is going to be hit or miss for the majority of the season.  The offense should be solid though, and it best be, considering I drafted their entire outfield.

I thought a line-up of Guzman, Johnson, Zimmerman, Dunn, Dukes, Milledge, Hernandez, Flores would be damn solid.  They definitely have enough OBP-guys to make it count, and an intense amount of line-up flexibility.

With the amount of guys in the Nationals line-up sporting a .385+ On-Base Percentage, you can mix and match that line-up however you see fit.

Milledge was of course the wild-card — a toolsy player with none of the qualities you look for in any single type-cast batting order position.

Lots of tools though, everything scouts drool over: Milledge has speed and power, but strikes out too much and doesn’t get on base nearly enough.  He was tossed into the hype-machine by the New York Media after his first round selection and eventually pawned off to Washington for Brian Schnieder and Ryan Church.  Who knows how long he’ll be down in AAA Syracuse for…

Josh Willingham and Austin Kearns don’t really bring anything special to the table and probably aren’t worth looking into.  Willingham was a keeper when he had catcher eligibility, but now he’s just another outfielder.

…and about that Obama thing, I’m sure these guys wished their government pardoned them because they were just following orders.

Everything looked good for Lastings Milledge heading into the 2009 season.  Manny Acta had slotted him as the lead-off hitter, he was coming off a year in which he hit .268 while homering 14 times and stealing 24 bases.

Milledge was primed to be a terrific fantasy option for your outfield. Alas, the AP reports that Lastings Milledge has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Lastings Milledge lasted all of one week as the Washington Nationals’ leadoff hitter.

Off to an 0-7 start this season after finishing with a majors-high 102 losses in 2008, the Nationals optioned their starting center fielder to Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday. Milledge was hitting .167 with no extra-base hits, one RBI, one walk and 10 strikeouts atop the batting order.

“He is still a work-in-progress as a leadoff man,” assistant general manager Mike Rizzo said during a conference call.

“This is certainly a message that we need for players to perform,” Rizzo said. “We need for players to adapt to the major leagues, and we need players to succeed.”

In 24 Plate Appearances, Milledge had accumulated 4 singles and 1 walk to go along with his 10 strike-outs.

Milledge’s line of .167/.231/.167 isn’t something you write home about.  Milledge’s effort has been called into question since his days as a top-prospect with the Mets.  Many have referred to Milledge as an all-tools player, alas in fantasy baseball — tools are all we want:  Power and Speed, please.

How long the Nationals can keep Milledge in the minors is debatable.  Manny Acta, who loves Milledge, was enamored with Austin Kearns to start the year. Watching Acta trot out Kearns ahead of Dukes, was almost painful to watch.

I tend to believe this is a wake-up call for Milledge, and nothing more.  Getting Milledge riding buses rather than chartered planes should certainly wake him up.  Unless Milledge flops in triple-A, of course, in which case who knows what’ll happen.  Milledge looks off, real off, as he’s striking out at a 40 percent clip.

This move could backfire in the faces of the Nats management if Milledge starts pressing. If he decides he needs to make an immediate impression, he’ll continue his hard-swinging ways and continue to strike out. Which could result in more fail than Elijah Dukes’ book on parenting.

Instead of sending Milledge to the minors as a wake up call, the Nationals should have sat his butt on the bench. Whether or not Milledge gets the message, is really up in the air — I see him continuing to press.

However, one thing is for sure — If Milledge gets another chance in the next month, he’s bound to impress.  With a talented youngster like Milledge, fantasy-stud-dom is just a wake-up call away.

I do, however, still question Milledge as a lead-off hitter, both skill-set wise and pyschologically.

Fantasy Impact

Depending on who’s floating around on your waiver-wire, Milledge might just be worth holding onto.  Two weeks of riding a bus around in Syracuse should wake the kid up.  While I can’t see Milledge being down too long, the Nationals outfield is crowded as hoot with Dukes, Dunn, Kearns and Willingham.

I think I might even trade to acquire Milledge in a deep league, with the hopes that he gets a call in 2 weeks. Call me stupid, but I still think Milledge finishes with better numbers than someone like Jordan Schafer.  Then again, I’ve been baffled by just about every Nationals move this year, and wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him in Syracuse for the entire year.

In other Nats news, Willie Harris was placed on the DL and Anderson Hernandez was activated.  Hernandez is worth looking at in most formats, especially if he ends up batting early in that line-up. Dukes should get the CF AB, and we’re not sure who gets the call yet.

Full MLB Article On Milledge

By the by, I enjoy how the Syracuse Sky Chiefs still are sporting Blue Jays Colors on their Uniforms.  Ball-Out.

Third Base is unbelievably deep this year, like deep-deep;  like a “Dancer” from Thailand who illegally comes to Toronto to work at Zanzibar, deep.

I really don’t think I’ve ever started a third basemen at a UTIL or CI spot but things may change this year.  After Wright, Longoria, Rodriguez, Youkilis, Ramirez and Jones there’s a beautifully deep mess of third basemen with 30-HR potential.

Ryan Zimmerman is one of those guys. Zimmerman’s coming off the board as the 107th pick, which is comparable to Carlos Delgado and his 124th overall pick as a first basemen.

Zimmerman experienced a nagging left-shoulder injury that cost him about 60 games, and postponed which should have been his breakout year.  It’s now 2009, and Ryan Zimmerman is still a beast.

Looking at Zimmerman’s solid power numbers, it’s pretty much a given that he’ll eventually develop 30-HR power. Zimmerman’s career best has been 24 HR, but the amount of doubles he consistently hits really sheds light on his power.

While Zimmerman’s swing is textbook, his batting average hasn’t reflected it.  Zimmerman appears to be a lock for .285, but he should have .300 potential somewhere in there. Walking half as much as you strike-out isn’t terrible, but with Zimmerman’s skill set, you should expect an improvement.  CHONE is the only projection model that predicts a noticeable increase in BB:K.

Zimmerman is consistently among the league leaders in doubles as he has terrific gap power: when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. After returning from the disabled list last year, Zimmerman went for .306 AVG, .370 OBP, and .455 Slugging percentage.

Now almost a full-year removed from his shoulder injury, the question on your mind should be: When’s Zimmerman going to turn his doubles power into home-run power?

The answer is probably this year.  If he doesn’t manage to get to that magical 30-HR mark, he’ll at least end up in the high-20′s.

The Washington Nationals line-up is also improved with the addition of Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn, and maturation of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. This may only be worth a couple runs and a few rbi when viewed against the backdrop of Zimmerman’s 2007 season, but it starts to put him amongst the elite.

Zimmerman should come ridiculously close to notching 200 combined R and RBI and there’s no reason to think he’ll bat anywhere but third, even with a miraculously healthy Nick Johnson. The top of the Nats line-up isn’t amazingly efficient at getting on base, but they’ll do.

Expecting a line of 95R/27HR/95RBI/.290 AVG/3SB seems about right, but with a third-base class this deep, I’m not sure where to rank Zimmerman. These numbers look fairly comparable to Evan Longoria’s projected numbers, other than Bill James’ 37-HR projection for Longoria. But Considering how much everyone is overrating Longoria, Zimmerman’s a steal at 106th overall.  At the same time, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gordon, Jorge Cantu or the extremely unlucky Mark Reynolds could also put up at least similar numbers and be gotten almost 100 picks later.

Zimmerman’s primed for a break-out year, but at the same time I’d just wait until later in the draft and take whichever third basemen is left.

Photo Courtesy Of Scott Ableman Flickr

Jordan Zimmermann, born in the year 1986, is a wonderful young pitching prospect in the Nationals organization.  He’s arguably their best pitching prospect, and he’s definitely the most major league ready of the bunch — or some combination of both.

Zimmermann appears to have the inside track on the fourth spot in the rotation, as he continues to battle with Collin Balester and Shairon Martis. Martis appears to be the odd man out, regardless of his sparkling 1.42 Spring ERA.

Up until last Saturday, Zimmermann had dominated Spring Training for the Nats, feeding the hype machine much needed complex carbohydrates. At which point, the St. Louis Cardinals beat the living pulp out of him, for 5 runs in 2 innings. Afterwards, Zimmermann did something astonishing, something so warranted of praise that I’ll type it in bold and italics: Zimmermann manned-the-fuck up.

Zimmermann refused to make excuses for his poor performance, although the excuses were there. There’s absolutely nothing I hate more than watching a player decide he’s healthy enough to play, but also sick enough to make excuses if he fails.

Tangent Time:

Last night’s Syracuse / Oklahoma game definitely resulted in plenty of curse words being hurled at the television.  Jonny Flynn who was hurt enough to limp around like a 3-legged dog on defense, was also healthy enough to dribble-drive and fly by Oklahoma defenders for easy lay-ups.  Watching Flynn limp around right before jumping in front of a pass was about as irritating as a case of crabs.

Hey, did you see the HAIR on Blake Griffin’s mother? Jesus Christ, Lord Allmighty! That is some big hair. The side-view really doesn’t do it’s fullness justice.

Furthermore, BAM! Watching Griffin hit his head on the backboard after schooling the Orangemen and Flynn on how to successfully dunk, was uh-may-zing.

If only Wake Forrest didn’t shit the bed, my bracket would be pretty gosh darn solid at this point.

End of Tangent Time

Zimmermann’s spring numbers have been just as uh-may-zing as Griffin’s dunk: 20 Strikeouts to 2 Walks in 14 innings pitched while not allowing an earned run outside of that St. Louis fiasco.

Drafted in the second round (67th overall) of the 2007 draft,  Zimmermann ranks as the Nationals’ number 1 prospect heading into 2009, that’s after he ranked #7 in 2008.

Zimmermann dominated the early minors posting 103 strike-outs in 106.1 IP in AA last year. Throw in his 1.20-WHIP and 3.20-ERA and we’ve got ourselves a legitimate phenom. Zimmermann’s low-minors numbers are even more jaw-dropping as he posted 12K-per-9 in low-A, and 10K-per-9 in high-A. Zimmermann does all this while only walking about 3 batters per 9.

Zimmermann’s Arsenal:

1. 90-94mph heater, with decent movement.
2. low-90′s sinker
3. over-the-top curveball
4. work-in-progress change
5. decent to good slider

Courtesy of Yahoo, Manny Acta loves the kid:

He’s quite impressive. He attacks the strike zone. He had a very sharp slider today. For those guys that haven’t seen him, they struggled with that slider. He locked up a couple good hitters in that lineup…We’ve got three weeks to go. If he doesn’t get anybody out from here to the last day of the season, then I’m going to have to eat my words if I put him in the rotation today. We’re going to make the decision on whether it’s going to be the best for him or for us. Right now, it looks like it will be the best thing for us.

What’s In Store For Zimmermann?

Well, it looks like he has his roster spot pretty much locked up.  He dominated this past Thursday against Triple-A Round Rock. Anything could potentially happen, but Zimmermann should probably get to 150 IP one way or another this year.  Unless the remainder of the Nats rotation massively exceeds expectations, they probably won’t be in the play-off picture past July.  This’ll lead to the Nats doing the wise thing, and carefully treading these dangerous waters with Zimmermann.

It’s really not that hard to ruin a top-tier pitching prospect, and while it generally takes a little bit of help from the kid; you can probably name at least 10 pitchers whose development was delayed by early missuse/overused.

However, if Lannan, Olsen, and Cabrera exceed expectations, there’s no reason why the Nats couldn’t contend for a playoff spot which would probably push Zimmermann’s numbers up towards the 180 IP mark. Zimmermann did pitch about 135 innings between Single and Double A last year, so 180-190 isn’t a massive stretch.

Brad Evans over at Yahoo Fantasy Sports has Zimmermann pegged for 135 IP, 8 W, 4.34 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 101 K which seems like a conservative but fair estimate.

The Projection Models aren’t nearly as kind to Zimmermann. ZiPS has him getting 131IP, 4.81-ERA, 1.47-WHIP, to go with 88 Ks. Things get even worse with CHONE, to the tune of: 82IP, 5.05-ERA, 1.55-WHIP, and 69Ks.

Conclusion of Sorts

Just because you draft Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t mean you have to keep him the entire year.  Yahoo’s assessment that he’ll Cueto the situation is pretty on-point.  I see Zimmermann having a slightly better ERA throughout the season, as Cincinnati is probably the last place you’d want a youngin’ to pitch this side of the Mississippi — Just ask Homer Bailey.

Zimmermann should dominate in his first month or so, and a mid-threes ERA isn’t out of the question.  His K-Rate will probably fall in the 7 to 7.5-per-9 range, with a whip of around 1.30ish.

After the first three or four starts is when the fun will begin. Zimmermann’s definitely got low-4′s ERA potential in him to go along with a 1.35ish WHIP.  A Solid 7K-per-9, and about 3.5BB-per-9, should keep him around the talented rookie standard of 2K-per-BB.

In shallow leagues where you can replace Zimmermann with a competant pitcher, by all means draft him for his upside.  In deep leagues where you’re looking at replacing Zimmermann with someone that pitches for the Seattle Mariners, I’d hedge my bets by picking an innings eater.

Zimmerman projects out as a solid number-2 or spectacular number-3 guy, in just about any rotation — for you keeper league guys.  Gil Meche-ish? Yah, I’m going with Gil-Meche-ish.

Just like Meche, Zimmerman is probably going to have to throw his slider and risk injury to remain a dominant strike-out pitcher.  The knock on Zimmerman is no out-pitch, but he clearly has one and it’s his slider — The Nats just don’t want him using it all the time as they’d prefer he avoid the fate of Gil Meche and his two rotator cuff surgeries.

ESPN is reporting, along with just about everyone else, that Adam Dunn is ready to become a Washington National (link).  Assuming Dunn suits up for the Nats come spring, what exactly are the implications?

Position Alignment Washington Nationals:

The Nationals OF, is looking like Willingham in left-field, Milledge in Center, and Dukes in Right.  First base is occupied by the oft-injured Nick Johnson. Wily-Mo Pena, Austin Kearns and Corey Patterson were also figuring to get some ABs, and post a sub-.250 OBP but it looks like that may be put on hold.

Logically, it’d make sense for Willingham to be the first guy off the bench if everyone’s healthy. Milledge and Dukes have the raw talent, and Nick “the stick” Johnson is a perfect compliment for Dunn.

Reality is a different beast.  Josh Willingham will get his bats, because:

1. Nick Johnson has a season ending injury in Game 7 of the season.
2. Elijah Dukes can’t keep his head out of trouble
3. Milledge screws his hamstring up, somehow.

Dunn in Left, Milledge in CF, and Dukes in Right with Nick Johnson at first.  They have a tonne of versatility though, as both Dunn and Willingham can do a reasonably decent job at first.

Fantasy Impact of Adam Dunn Signing:

Nationals Park is no RFK stadium, which is good.  The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and Chase Field in Arizona, generally are a bit kinder to hitters than Nationals Park which finds itself in the middle of the pack based on limited data.

Park factors from ESPN

The Nationals are really pursuing a High-OBP type guys that I’m quite fond of, Line-up:

1. Christian Guzman — IF he can hit 300 and get on base at a .370 clip again — he’s my 1. He wont, so he’ll end up batting 6, with Milledge 1 and Dukes 2.

2. Lastings Milledge — If Milledge proves his ability to be a lead-off man, and actually get on base — this line-up becomes a lot better.

3. Zimmerman batted in the 3-hole all last year, and I doubt that’ll change.

4. Dunn bats fourth, and while that OBP may be better suited earlier …its hard to convince managers of such things

5. Johnson while he’s healthy.  If he’s *fully* healthy, he’s probably their best hitter and he’ll bring a .420 OBP to the table.  If the Nats didn’t have the speed they do, it’d be nice to see Johnson and Dunn batting early in the line-up.

6. Dukes is either my #2 or number 6.  I love Duke’s high OBP and decent average and he’ll scoot up once Guzman fails.

7. Jesus Flores

8. Anderson Hernandez

9. P

I’d like to obviously see a few changes in this line-up, like Dukes and Zimmerman switching it up. Maybe Zimmerman batting 5th? Either way, the OBP of this line-up is solid as a rock. The only problem is the “speedsters” Milledge and Guzman haven’t proven a consistent ability to get on base.

Dunn stays about where you’d value him in any other line-up and, I tend to think the entire Nationals line-up gets a boost from his acquisition.

Give everyone above Dunn a bump in RUNS of about 3-5 and everyone Below Dunn and Johnson an RBI bump of about 6.

This team will be one of the most interesting offenses in the league.  Lots of guys on base, lots of running, lots of homers.

What’s your take on the Nats line-up?