Washington Nationals

Elijah Dukes, Man Crush, Recalled From The ‘Cuse.

Entering the year, everyone knew that Washington was going to have some serious problems with their rotation but, at the very least, their offense was going to be respectable.

Jim Bowden had assembled some terrific young talent, and brought in a couple key free agents.  Unfortunately, the Washington Nationals found a way to let their premiere talent waste away on the bench, or in the minors, while trotting out league average scrubs day in, and day out.

To many, it appeared as though Bowden was building a fantasy baseball squad, where Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham would fill the UTIL spots while Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Corey Patterson, Willie Harris and Austin Kearns would split time in the outfield.

Elijah Dukes looked to have broken through in 2008, leaving the past behind, and becoming an actual ball-player.  Dukes’ was a terrific power/speed guy that managed to get on base at a .386-clip in 2008 — things were lookin’ up.

Lastings Milledge had a realistic shot at 20 HR / 20 SB this year, but we all know how that turned out.  Everyone understands that the kid doesn’t listen, won’t take a walk, and strikes out too much, but the talent is definitely there.

So rather than giving these two legitimate shots of improving as ball-players, the Washington Nationals decided that 30-year old Josh Willingham, and 29-year old Austin Kearns were going to be the future of their franchise.

Willingham has had a spectacular year, posting a .300 AVG /.412 OBP/.933 OPS slash-line in 2009, but he’s also the proud owner of a .329 BABIP and 20% HR/FB ratio.   When we look at 2009, we’re looking at Josh Willingham’s ceiling as a ballplayer.

Austin Kearns has been under the Mendoza line for almost the entire year, but has still managed 210 plate appearances.

Nyjer Morgan, acquired in the Milledge-deal,  provides a nice little spark plug and an unholy defensive improvement, but why are the Nationals trading for outfielders to begin with?

Jim Bowden and Manny Acta are both gone now, but they’ve left one hell of a mess. A mess that Mike Rizzo is attempting to clean up by trading Nick Johnson, who’s departure essentially freed up an outfield spot as Adam Dunn slid over to first base.

With that said, Elijah Dukes has found himself recalled to the Big Club.  It was around this time last year that Elijah Dukes started to catch fire and absolutely rake.  In 2009, much like 2008, it’ll probably come down to AB’s and not much else.  Dukes destroyed AAA pitching over the past month, posting a 1.13 BB/K ratio to compliment his .943 OPS.

Last night against the Pirates, Riggleman trotted Dukes out in the number six spot.  It’s a great spot for Dukes, hitting after Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham, and should increase his RBI numbers substantially.  He may have the Catcher (Bard/Flores,) Second Baseman (Hernandez/Gonzalez,) and Pitcher hitting after him, but at least he’s not forced to hit after Christian Guzman and his .322 OBP.

At the start of the season, I predicted that Elijah Dukes and Washington’s incredibly solid offense would put up fairly surprising numbers.  Little did I know that Dukes would find his ass on the bench, and then in the Minors.  I’m still not ready to admit that I was wrong because there’s no explanation for the shit-show that went down in Washington but I’d recommend picking up Elijah Dukes as soon as possible, especially if he starts getting regular at-bats.

I’m left to wonder what kind of numbers Dukes would be sitting on if Acta had shown enough trust in him to give him regular at-bats.  The Nationals have the worst pitching in the league by a country mile, and I’ll never be able to wrap my head around why the Manager and General Manager didn’t let their young guys play.

Maybe I’m just clinging to the past, unable to admit that I was simply incorrect.

Washington Nationals

The Jordan Zimmermann Dilemma

Jordan Zimmermann busted out of the gate and got shit poppin’ by shutting down two half-decent offenses in the Mets and Braves.  Zimmermann hasn’t looked nearly as dominant in the month of May, posting a 6.98 ERA in 5 May starts.  While May’s been a very forgettable month for Jordan Zimmermann, there have been a couple bright spots: Read more

Washington Nationals

Christian Guzman Sweet Stroke?

During my injury induced hiatus, Washington Nationals’ super-shortstop Christian Guzman did the impossible: Christian Guzman took a walk, actually two walks!

In back-to-back games against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Guzman took a base on balls in each game.  Unfortunately, his On-Base Percentage (.382) no longer matches his batting average (.373) Read more

Washington Nationals

Washington: News-Worthy Notes, Note-Worthy News?

The Washington Nationals Won!

vs.

President Obama Declares Amnesty for CIA Torture Mongers

I’ll start with the Nationals winning their first game as I watch the season premiere of The Deadliest Catch Season 5 and doze off, hopefully before 2:00 AM. Read more

Washington Nationals

Lastings Milledge Gets Put in His Place: Triple-A?

Everything looked good for Lastings Milledge heading into the 2009 season.  Manny Acta had slotted him as the lead-off hitter, he was coming off a year in which he hit .268 while homering 14 times and stealing 24 bases.

Milledge was primed to be a terrific fantasy option for your outfield. Alas, the AP reports that Lastings Milledge has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Lastings Milledge lasted all of one week as the Washington Nationals’ leadoff hitter.

Off to an 0-7 start this season after finishing with a majors-high 102 losses in 2008, the Nationals optioned their starting center fielder to Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday. Milledge was hitting .167 with no extra-base hits, one RBI, one walk and 10 strikeouts atop the batting order.

“He is still a work-in-progress as a leadoff man,” assistant general manager Mike Rizzo said during a conference call.

“This is certainly a message that we need for players to perform,” Rizzo said. “We need for players to adapt to the major leagues, and we need players to succeed.”

In 24 Plate Appearances, Milledge had accumulated 4 singles and 1 walk to go along with his 10 strike-outs.

Milledge’s line of .167/.231/.167 isn’t something you write home about.  Milledge’s effort has been called into question since his days as a top-prospect with the Mets.  Many have referred to Milledge as an all-tools player, alas in fantasy baseball — tools are all we want:  Power and Speed, please.

How long the Nationals can keep Milledge in the minors is debatable.  Manny Acta, who loves Milledge, was enamored with Austin Kearns to start the year. Watching Acta trot out Kearns ahead of Dukes, was almost painful to watch.

I tend to believe this is a wake-up call for Milledge, and nothing more.  Getting Milledge riding buses rather than chartered planes should certainly wake him up.  Unless Milledge flops in triple-A, of course, in which case who knows what’ll happen.  Milledge looks off, real off, as he’s striking out at a 40 percent clip.

This move could backfire in the faces of the Nats management if Milledge starts pressing. If he decides he needs to make an immediate impression, he’ll continue his hard-swinging ways and continue to strike out. Which could result in more fail than Elijah Dukes’ book on parenting.

Instead of sending Milledge to the minors as a wake up call, the Nationals should have sat his butt on the bench. Whether or not Milledge gets the message, is really up in the air — I see him continuing to press.

However, one thing is for sure — If Milledge gets another chance in the next month, he’s bound to impress.  With a talented youngster like Milledge, fantasy-stud-dom is just a wake-up call away.

I do, however, still question Milledge as a lead-off hitter, both skill-set wise and pyschologically.

Fantasy Impact

Depending on who’s floating around on your waiver-wire, Milledge might just be worth holding onto.  Two weeks of riding a bus around in Syracuse should wake the kid up.  While I can’t see Milledge being down too long, the Nationals outfield is crowded as hoot with Dukes, Dunn, Kearns and Willingham.

I think I might even trade to acquire Milledge in a deep league, with the hopes that he gets a call in 2 weeks. Call me stupid, but I still think Milledge finishes with better numbers than someone like Jordan Schafer.  Then again, I’ve been baffled by just about every Nationals move this year, and wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him in Syracuse for the entire year.

In other Nats news, Willie Harris was placed on the DL and Anderson Hernandez was activated.  Hernandez is worth looking at in most formats, especially if he ends up batting early in that line-up. Dukes should get the CF AB, and we’re not sure who gets the call yet.

Full MLB Article On Milledge

By the by, I enjoy how the Syracuse Sky Chiefs still are sporting Blue Jays Colors on their Uniforms.  Ball-Out.

Washington Nationals

Pudgy Third Base Review: Ryan Zimmerman

Third Base is unbelievably deep this year, like deep-deep;  like a “Dancer” from Thailand who illegally comes to Toronto to work at Zanzibar, deep.

I really don’t think I’ve ever started a third basemen at a UTIL or CI spot but things may change this year.  After Wright, Longoria, Rodriguez, Youkilis, Ramirez and Jones there’s a beautifully deep mess of third basemen with 30-HR potential.

Ryan Zimmerman is one of those guys. Zimmerman’s coming off the board as the 107th pick, which is comparable to Carlos Delgado and his 124th overall pick as a first basemen.

Zimmerman experienced a nagging left-shoulder injury that cost him about 60 games, and postponed which should have been his breakout year.  It’s now 2009, and Ryan Zimmerman is still a beast.

YR/PRO	AB	2B	HR	R	RBI	AVG	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO
05	58	10	0	6	6	0.397	0.25	0.419	0.569	0.988	0.172
06	614	47	20	84	110	0.287	0.51	0.351	0.471	0.822	0.184
07	653	43	24	99	91	0.266	0.49	0.33	0.458	0.788	0.191
08	428	24	14	51	51	0.283	0.44	0.333	0.442	0.774	0.159
BILLJAMES	576	42	22	84	87	0.29	0.54	0.351	0.484	0.835	0.194
CHONE	514	36	19	78	78	0.296	0.6	0.364	0.488	0.852	0.192
Marcel	454	30	15	63	65	0.282	0.51	0.345	0.456	0.801	0.174
OLIVER	449	31	15			0.284	0.44	0.336	0.463	0.799	0.179
ZIPS	553	33	24	82	76	0.28	0.52	0.342	0.481	0.823	0.201

Looking at Zimmerman’s solid power numbers, it’s pretty much a given that he’ll eventually develop 30-HR power. Zimmerman’s career best has been 24 HR, but the amount of doubles he consistently hits really sheds light on his power.

While Zimmerman’s swing is textbook, his batting average hasn’t reflected it.  Zimmerman appears to be a lock for .285, but he should have .300 potential somewhere in there. Walking half as much as you strike-out isn’t terrible, but with Zimmerman’s skill set, you should expect an improvement.  CHONE is the only projection model that predicts a noticeable increase in BB:K.

Zimmerman is consistently among the league leaders in doubles as he has terrific gap power: when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. After returning from the disabled list last year, Zimmerman went for .306 AVG, .370 OBP, and .455 Slugging percentage.

Now almost a full-year removed from his shoulder injury, the question on your mind should be: When’s Zimmerman going to turn his doubles power into home-run power?

The answer is probably this year.  If he doesn’t manage to get to that magical 30-HR mark, he’ll at least end up in the high-20′s.

The Washington Nationals line-up is also improved with the addition of Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn, and maturation of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. This may only be worth a couple runs and a few rbi when viewed against the backdrop of Zimmerman’s 2007 season, but it starts to put him amongst the elite.

Zimmerman should come ridiculously close to notching 200 combined R and RBI and there’s no reason to think he’ll bat anywhere but third, even with a miraculously healthy Nick Johnson. The top of the Nats line-up isn’t amazingly efficient at getting on base, but they’ll do.

Expecting a line of 95R/27HR/95RBI/.290 AVG/3SB seems about right, but with a third-base class this deep, I’m not sure where to rank Zimmerman. These numbers look fairly comparable to Evan Longoria’s projected numbers, other than Bill James’ 37-HR projection for Longoria. But Considering how much everyone is overrating Longoria, Zimmerman’s a steal at 106th overall.  At the same time, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gordon, Jorge Cantu or the extremely unlucky Mark Reynolds could also put up at least similar numbers and be gotten almost 100 picks later.

Zimmerman’s primed for a break-out year, but at the same time I’d just wait until later in the draft and take whichever third basemen is left.

Photo Courtesy Of Scott Ableman Flickr

Washington Nationals

Into The Hype-Machine, With Jordan Zimmermann!

Jordan Zimmermann, born in the year 1986, is a wonderful young pitching prospect in the Nationals organization.  He’s arguably their best pitching prospect, and he’s definitely the most major league ready of the bunch — or some combination of both.

Zimmermann appears to have the inside track on the fourth spot in the rotation, as he continues to battle with Collin Balester and Shairon Martis. Martis appears to be the odd man out, regardless of his sparkling 1.42 Spring ERA.

Up until last Saturday, Zimmermann had dominated Spring Training for the Nats, feeding the hype machine much needed complex carbohydrates. At which point, the St. Louis Cardinals beat the living pulp out of him, for 5 runs in 2 innings. Afterwards, Zimmermann did something astonishing, something so warranted of praise that I’ll type it in bold and italics: Zimmermann manned-the-fuck up.

Zimmermann refused to make excuses for his poor performance, although the excuses were there. There’s absolutely nothing I hate more than watching a player decide he’s healthy enough to play, but also sick enough to make excuses if he fails.

Tangent Time:

Last night’s Syracuse / Oklahoma game definitely resulted in plenty of curse words being hurled at the television.  Jonny Flynn who was hurt enough to limp around like a 3-legged dog on defense, was also healthy enough to dribble-drive and fly by Oklahoma defenders for easy lay-ups.  Watching Flynn limp around right before jumping in front of a pass was about as irritating as a case of crabs.

Hey, did you see the HAIR on Blake Griffin’s mother? Jesus Christ, Lord Allmighty! That is some big hair. The side-view really doesn’t do it’s fullness justice.

Furthermore, BAM! Watching Griffin hit his head on the backboard after schooling the Orangemen and Flynn on how to successfully dunk, was uh-may-zing.

If only Wake Forrest didn’t shit the bed, my bracket would be pretty gosh darn solid at this point.

End of Tangent Time

Zimmermann’s spring numbers have been just as uh-may-zing as Griffin’s dunk: 20 Strikeouts to 2 Walks in 14 innings pitched while not allowing an earned run outside of that St. Louis fiasco.

Drafted in the second round (67th overall) of the 2007 draft,  Zimmermann ranks as the Nationals’ number 1 prospect heading into 2009, that’s after he ranked #7 in 2008.

Zimmermann dominated the early minors posting 103 strike-outs in 106.1 IP in AA last year. Throw in his 1.20-WHIP and 3.20-ERA and we’ve got ourselves a legitimate phenom. Zimmermann’s low-minors numbers are even more jaw-dropping as he posted 12K-per-9 in low-A, and 10K-per-9 in high-A. Zimmermann does all this while only walking about 3 batters per 9.

Zimmermann’s Arsenal:

1. 90-94mph heater, with decent movement.
2. low-90′s sinker
3. over-the-top curveball
4. work-in-progress change
5. decent to good slider

Courtesy of Yahoo, Manny Acta loves the kid:

He’s quite impressive. He attacks the strike zone. He had a very sharp slider today. For those guys that haven’t seen him, they struggled with that slider. He locked up a couple good hitters in that lineup…We’ve got three weeks to go. If he doesn’t get anybody out from here to the last day of the season, then I’m going to have to eat my words if I put him in the rotation today. We’re going to make the decision on whether it’s going to be the best for him or for us. Right now, it looks like it will be the best thing for us.

What’s In Store For Zimmermann?

Well, it looks like he has his roster spot pretty much locked up.  He dominated this past Thursday against Triple-A Round Rock. Anything could potentially happen, but Zimmermann should probably get to 150 IP one way or another this year.  Unless the remainder of the Nats rotation massively exceeds expectations, they probably won’t be in the play-off picture past July.  This’ll lead to the Nats doing the wise thing, and carefully treading these dangerous waters with Zimmermann.

It’s really not that hard to ruin a top-tier pitching prospect, and while it generally takes a little bit of help from the kid; you can probably name at least 10 pitchers whose development was delayed by early missuse/overused.

However, if Lannan, Olsen, and Cabrera exceed expectations, there’s no reason why the Nats couldn’t contend for a playoff spot which would probably push Zimmermann’s numbers up towards the 180 IP mark. Zimmermann did pitch about 135 innings between Single and Double A last year, so 180-190 isn’t a massive stretch.

Brad Evans over at Yahoo Fantasy Sports has Zimmermann pegged for 135 IP, 8 W, 4.34 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 101 K which seems like a conservative but fair estimate.

The Projection Models aren’t nearly as kind to Zimmermann. ZiPS has him getting 131IP, 4.81-ERA, 1.47-WHIP, to go with 88 Ks. Things get even worse with CHONE, to the tune of: 82IP, 5.05-ERA, 1.55-WHIP, and 69Ks.

Conclusion of Sorts

Just because you draft Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t mean you have to keep him the entire year.  Yahoo’s assessment that he’ll Cueto the situation is pretty on-point.  I see Zimmermann having a slightly better ERA throughout the season, as Cincinnati is probably the last place you’d want a youngin’ to pitch this side of the Mississippi — Just ask Homer Bailey.

Zimmermann should dominate in his first month or so, and a mid-threes ERA isn’t out of the question.  His K-Rate will probably fall in the 7 to 7.5-per-9 range, with a whip of around 1.30ish.

After the first three or four starts is when the fun will begin. Zimmermann’s definitely got low-4′s ERA potential in him to go along with a 1.35ish WHIP.  A Solid 7K-per-9, and about 3.5BB-per-9, should keep him around the talented rookie standard of 2K-per-BB.

In shallow leagues where you can replace Zimmermann with a competant pitcher, by all means draft him for his upside.  In deep leagues where you’re looking at replacing Zimmermann with someone that pitches for the Seattle Mariners, I’d hedge my bets by picking an innings eater.

Zimmerman projects out as a solid number-2 or spectacular number-3 guy, in just about any rotation — for you keeper league guys.  Gil Meche-ish? Yah, I’m going with Gil-Meche-ish.

Just like Meche, Zimmerman is probably going to have to throw his slider and risk injury to remain a dominant strike-out pitcher.  The knock on Zimmerman is no out-pitch, but he clearly has one and it’s his slider — The Nats just don’t want him using it all the time as they’d prefer he avoid the fate of Gil Meche and his two rotator cuff surgeries.

Washington Nationals

Adam Dunn, A Washington National? Fantasy Implications.

ESPN is reporting, along with just about everyone else, that Adam Dunn is ready to become a Washington National (link).  Assuming Dunn suits up for the Nats come spring, what exactly are the implications?

Position Alignment Washington Nationals:

The Nationals OF, is looking like Willingham in left-field, Milledge in Center, and Dukes in Right.  First base is occupied by the oft-injured Nick Johnson. Wily-Mo Pena, Austin Kearns and Corey Patterson were also figuring to get some ABs, and post a sub-.250 OBP but it looks like that may be put on hold.

Logically, it’d make sense for Willingham to be the first guy off the bench if everyone’s healthy. Milledge and Dukes have the raw talent, and Nick “the stick” Johnson is a perfect compliment for Dunn.

Reality is a different beast.  Josh Willingham will get his bats, because:

1. Nick Johnson has a season ending injury in Game 7 of the season.
2. Elijah Dukes can’t keep his head out of trouble
3. Milledge screws his hamstring up, somehow.

Dunn in Left, Milledge in CF, and Dukes in Right with Nick Johnson at first.  They have a tonne of versatility though, as both Dunn and Willingham can do a reasonably decent job at first.

Fantasy Impact of Adam Dunn Signing:

Nationals Park is no RFK stadium, which is good.  The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and Chase Field in Arizona, generally are a bit kinder to hitters than Nationals Park which finds itself in the middle of the pack based on limited data.

Park factors from ESPN

The Nationals are really pursuing a High-OBP type guys that I’m quite fond of, Line-up:

1. Christian Guzman — IF he can hit 300 and get on base at a .370 clip again — he’s my 1. He wont, so he’ll end up batting 6, with Milledge 1 and Dukes 2.

2. Lastings Milledge — If Milledge proves his ability to be a lead-off man, and actually get on base — this line-up becomes a lot better.

3. Zimmerman batted in the 3-hole all last year, and I doubt that’ll change.

4. Dunn bats fourth, and while that OBP may be better suited earlier …its hard to convince managers of such things

5. Johnson while he’s healthy.  If he’s *fully* healthy, he’s probably their best hitter and he’ll bring a .420 OBP to the table.  If the Nats didn’t have the speed they do, it’d be nice to see Johnson and Dunn batting early in the line-up.

6. Dukes is either my #2 or number 6.  I love Duke’s high OBP and decent average and he’ll scoot up once Guzman fails.

7. Jesus Flores

8. Anderson Hernandez

9. P

I’d like to obviously see a few changes in this line-up, like Dukes and Zimmerman switching it up. Maybe Zimmerman batting 5th? Either way, the OBP of this line-up is solid as a rock. The only problem is the “speedsters” Milledge and Guzman haven’t proven a consistent ability to get on base.

Dunn stays about where you’d value him in any other line-up and, I tend to think the entire Nationals line-up gets a boost from his acquisition.

Give everyone above Dunn a bump in RUNS of about 3-5 and everyone Below Dunn and Johnson an RBI bump of about 6.

This team will be one of the most interesting offenses in the league.  Lots of guys on base, lots of running, lots of homers.

What’s your take on the Nats line-up?