After another subpar performance, Tim Lincecum faces questions regarding his health and his control.  Lincecum took the mound against the Nationals having uncharacteristically walked five batters in each of his previous two games and proceeded to make it three games in a row.  Lincecum walked five Nationals hitters and allowed six runs before being pulled in the fifth inning.  Lincecum’s quirky delivery doesn’t lend itself well to holding runners on and the Nationals reaped the benefits with 4 SB (Morgan, Kennedy twice, and Zimmerman).  Lincecum now sits atop the stolen bases allowed list with fellow teammate, Jonathan Sanchez.

Lincecum’s obviously in trouble with 15BB in his previous 17.2 innings pitched after allowing only 10 total BB over the previous 7 starts.  The question obviously becomes WHY? Why has Lincecum allowed 15 BB?  Why has Lincecum seen his ERA rise from 1.76 to 3.00 in the previous two games?

The San Jose Mercury News reports speculations that Lincecum has been dealing with a blister,

According to a pregame television report, Lincecum had a blister on his pitching hand. Manager Bruce Bochy refuted the report, saying Lincecum “wasn’t pitching with a blister (and) we wouldn’t have pitched him with a blister.”

Lincecum, his hands noticeably stuffed in his sweatshirt postgame interview, sidestepped the blister question.”It’s something I’ve dealt with before,” he said. “I go out there all the time, so … whatever.”

Bochy obviously displeased of the idea that he sent an injured Lincecum out to pitch had this to say,

“He was out of sync tonight, no getting around it. He lost focus with men on base. He’s pressing a little. He’s got to regroup. He’s done an incredible job (but) as good as he’s been, he’s going to have his streaks. The next bullpen will be an important ‘pen for him.”

There’s no real reason to prove or discredit Blister-Gate but there are some small signals that Lincecum’s been dealing with something.

The loss of velocity on his fastball was at first considered part of Lincecum’s maturation but logic would dictate that he’d have no problem dialing it up for the occasional high-leverage situation but he hasn’t done that thus far (graph court. fangraphs.com):

According to fangraphs, Lincecum’s lost over a mph on his fastball in 2010.  Lincecum has been experimenting with increased usage of the two-seamer, cutter and change-up to become a better pitcher rather than just a flame-thrower and it appeared to have been working — Until the wheels fell off, of course.

Contrasting the first seven games of the season and the previous three, it’s clear that not only is Lincecum having trouble locating but the pitches just aren’t moving as much:

Lincecum’s change-up, a pitch he was throwing 25% of the time to start the season, was a strike 75% of the time with batters whiffing 32% of the time after swinging at 68% of them. Conversely in his previous three starts, Lincecum was throwing changes 20% of the time, it was a strike 61.3% of the time with batters swinging at a 52% percent clip and whiffing almost 23% of the time.  Originally, the change had almost 3.5 inches of tail but it’s fallen flat with under 2″ in the past three games. Less spin and a breaking direction 20 degrees closer to straight down has all but removed the tail horizontal movement.

Lincecum’s early success featured him throwing a straight four-seamer 35% of the time and the two-seamer with horizontal movement 16% of the time.  In the previous three games, Lincecum has all but abandoned the two-seamer (down 7%) as it’s only drawing a strike 36.7% of the time compared to it’s earlier rate of 61%.

Here’s the full comparison of Lincecum’s pitch-use:

First 7 Games:

Last 3 Games:

Evidence of Blister-Gate is moderately supported by viewing Lincecum’s spin-rate comparisons from the previous couple years:

2009:

First Seven Games of 2010:

Compared to the previous 3 of 2010:

While some of the rotational loss between years can be attributed to the slowing of Lincecum’s overall movement and torque, the difference between the first seven and last 3 games of 2010 is quite noticeable.  Despite a stable velocity on his offspeed pitches, he’s been unable to impart the same degree of spin and rotation on the ball.

The easiest way to explain this is the one that Bochy’s been denying:  Tim Lincecum has SOMETHING — whether it’s a blister or hangnail — wrong with his finger(s).  Lincecum was given an extra day of rest going into last night’s start and it definitely didn’t help, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a DL trip in the near future.

I’m sure you’re not surprised to learn that Tim Lincecum leads the league in K/9 (11.92) but sandwiched in between him and Yovani Gallardo (10.72) are three formerly hyped prospects.  Brandon Morrow (11.83K/9), Bud Norris (10.75) and Justin Masterson (10.74) are posting jaw-dropping numbers.  Unfortunately, all three of the aforementioned pitchers have had issues throwing strikes, which all but negates their terrific strike-out numbers.

First up, Bud Norris, the hard-throwing Astros righty.  Norris recently put together a gem against the Cardinals, going eight innings without allowing a single walk!  Norris finished the game with a line of 8IP, 1ER, 8K, 0BB while throwing 65 of 99 pitches for strikes.

Other than walks, the biggest factor to Norris’ success will be his change-up.  The downward movement on the pitch appears to be greatly improved this year which has lead to him throwing it almost twice as much.

I  like Bud Norris going forward but it’s going to be a bumpy ride with instances where his control completely abandons him.  If Norris can put together one more start where he walks fewer than 3 batters, I’ll start tooting his horn a lot more.  For those of you that monitor FIP and xFIP, Norris’ is outplaying his ERA of 6.03 by quite a bit with a 3.48 and 4.15, respectively.

Justin Masterson is next in line and there’s no way in hell that I would’ve predicted this start.  When Masterson came up, I thought his K-numbers from the minors would completely evaporate.  Masterson is essentially a sinkerballer who floats between 90 and 93 on his two  seam fastballs.  Yet with just a 2-seamer and a slider, Masterson’s managed to induce a Swinging Strike Percentage of over 9.0% every year that he’s been in the league.   The strike-outs can’t possibly continue at this rate but I wouldn’t be surprised to see something higher than 8K/9 from him going forward.  Masterson has a few series coming up against NYY, BOS and TAM in the next couple of months but other than that, the schedule doesn’t scare me.  Masterson’s .412 BABIP against stands out like a sore thumb given his propensity to throw the sinker.  When the BABIP and LOB% regress, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 4.00 ERA pitcher emerge.

Brandon Morrow

Last outing against the Red Sox, Morrow just couldn’t throw strikes.  It was painful to watch and even more painful to examine (32 strikes to 35 balls.)

SideBar: As I type this, Morrow is once again getting hit hard courtesy of the Rangers.

Of all three, Morrow has the best ‘pure’ stuff:  95mph fastball, 88mph slider,  a change and a show-me curveball (that’s better than you’d imagine.)  Morrow’s combination of heat and offspeed stuff give him the highest ceiling but his inability to throw strikes will limit its attainability.

Right now and probably for the foreseeable future, Morrow will be a match-up guy.  If he’s facing a light-hitting team or a team that has a tendency to chase; Morrow’s worth a start.

Regardless of the Rangers’ power, they do chase a lot of pitches.  Today’s start should be a decent litmus test for Brandon Morrow.

Law and Order SVU hit the spot tonight and Delroy Lindo of Gone In 60 Seconds fame, rocked the house.  Delroy’s currently being represented by the Jamie Moyer of super hot chicks, Jeri Ryan.  Ryan’s still a spring chicken compared to Moyer though, she’s only 41 to Moyer’s 46.

Onto Fantasy Baseball!

IF you’re going to be making moves, here are some eye-catchers for Tuesday:

1. Josh Johnson – P – Florida Marlins
2. Colby Rasmus – OF – St. Louis Cardinals
3. Nick Johnson – 1B – Washington Nationals
4. Franklin Guetierrez – OF – Seattle Mariners
5. Erik Bedard – SP – Seattle Mariners (trade for?)
6. Emmanuel Burris – 2B – San Francisco Giants
7. Josh Fields & Chris Getz – IF – Chicago White Sox
8. Converted  OF Skip Schumaker / Mark Teahan – 2B – Cards/Royals
9. Wandy Rodriguez – SP – Houston Astros

Marlins / Nats

Josh Johnson looked great against the Nationals tonight, striking out 8 batters over 6 and two-thirds innings. Johnson also avoided walking a batter, which is nice to see from the kid.  With Johnson’s strike-out ability (~8K/9), he’ll be very valuable if he can limit his walks. He’s posted career BB/9 totals of between 3 and 4, so this is definitely a great start for the kid.

Keep an eye out for Johnson, if he can keep his walks down to under 3 per 9 — he’ll be a damn good investment in any league. You can do a lot worse than Johnson at this point.

This is the second straight game that Manny Acta has benched Elijah Dukes in favor of Austin Kearns.  It’s obviously not punishment as there are no news stories, and Dukes has been pitch hitting.  Maybe ownership wants to showcase Kearns?  If they’re lucky, they’ll get a player to be named later for Kearns.

Nick Johnson is healthy and raking, and if the rest of the Nationals ever start getting on base — Johnson will have value.  Unfortunately, Johnson will be hurt by that point.

Ronny Paulino and John Baker should form a nice little platoon down in Florida, neither will have value unless they get starter’s AB.

Pirates / Cards

Ian Snell of the Pirates had a rough day, surrendering 8 runs, 6 of which were earned, to the Cardinals.  Lots of good stuff coming out of Cardinals camp: Skip Schumaker’s start at second base didn’t go overly well, as he went hitless and committed a throwing error. Khalil Greene continued hitting, and Colby Rasmus got the start in right-field. Rasmus managed two singles and a walk in 5 plate appearances, not quite Schafer-esque. Strangely enough, both Rasmus and Duncan played with Ludwick riding the pine.  I still think this shapes up as Ludwick, Ankiel and Rasmsus as the starting outfielders.

M’s / Twins

A few line-up maneuvers that should peak your interest:  Guetierrez is batting second for the M’s, a spot in which he should flourish — I’d roster him in deep leagues, especially when Ichiro returns.  Denard Span is batting lead-off for the Twins with Gomez batting 7th.  Alexi Casilla, a nice sleeper, is batting in the 2-hole. Erik Bedard only went 5 innings, but struck out 8 — Hope you drafted him! In that park, with his skills, there’s going to be some serious value….if only he wasn’t a huge injury risk.

Jays / Tigers

Toronto’s 2-0, and first place in the AL EAST, thanks to the Detroit Tigers. On behalf of all Torontonians, Thank you!

Starting Pitchers Edwin Jackson and David Purcey looked stellar; each went 7 innings and gave up 2 and 3 ER, respectively.  Jackson struck out 4, while walking only a single batter. Purcey struck out one more batter, as he whiffed 5, but also walked 3.  Purcey should have more K-value long-term, but Jackson could be primed for one of those “never-saw-dat-coming” seasons.

I’d be worried if I owned one of the closers in this game though.  Lyon’s technically not the closer, but earned a blown save after allowing the game-winning run in a tie ball game.  Ryan was also very hittable, and I’d be picking up Scottie Downs ASAP (if you’re in a league where closer speculating is required)

Braves / Phillies

The Braves handed it to Philly again, and Mike Gonzalez owners exhaled.  Jurrjens didn’t allow a run, but wasn’t all that sharp. Schafer fell back down to earth, but even if he’s going hitless, so long as he’s taking walks — I’m buying it. Nothing terribly interesting…

Red Sox / Rays

Tampa and Boston finally got their seasons going, and I ended up watching a good chunk of this sucker on mlb’s gameday application.  Beckett’s release point was noticeably different between his fastball/curveball, one-two punch — early season kinks, I’m sure.

Tampa’s 3-4-5-6 of Longoria, Pena, Burrell and Joyce is going to strike-out a lot.  I’m actually quite worried about this team, but Maddon’s a bright guy and I’m sure he’ll find a way to split this up.  Other than Iwamura, Bartlett and Gabe Gross each stealing a base, there’s not much of note in this game.  James Shields was hittable, but I’d expect him to post stellar WHIP and K numbers for the rest of the year.

Giants / Brewers

Tim Lincecum is apparently a mortal, a very, very pale mortal that’s starting to look more and more like Kate Moss during the ‘addicted-to-heroin-and-cocaine-era’ or…. Skeletor.

Rickie Weeks is hitting the ball, and JJ Hardy isn’t — Welcome to Bizzaro World.  Hardy left 7 men on base.

Burriss got the start at second base over Frandsen, and Travis Ishikawa is proving me wrong by looking like a big-leaguer.

The Brewers ran wild against Bengie Molina.

Royals / White Sox

Mark Teahan started at second base, and looked good.  Trey Hillman has way too many guys hitting ahead of his two best hitters, Gordon and Butler.  They’re both young, but they shouldn’t be batting 6th and 7th.

The White Sox’ Josh Fields is batting 9th, but I’m not sure where Ozzie Guillen moves him to even if he keeps up his hot hitting. You can flip the White Sox line-up backwards, and it’ll probably look just as good as it does now: Fields (9th), Ramirez (8th), Pierzynski (7th) and Konerko (6th) vs. Wise (1st), Getz (2nd), Quentin (3rd) and Thome (4th).

Cubbies / ‘Stros

Soriano struck out 3 times, but did manage to homer — I’m thinking there’s going to be a lot of these games for him, wadda leadoff hitter.

Wandy Rodriguez looked solid, and does have some pretty solid K potential.  He’s probably one of the top players left in your waiver-wire so keep an eye out.

Not really much to report out of this game, but someone should inform the Astros that Ivan Rodriguez is no longer a viable number-2 hitter.

Rockies / D-Backs

Summary: Lots of Strikeouts.

Ubaldo Jiminez has a blistering fastball, but until he learns to pitch he’s going to have some issues in Coors.  Dan Haren is still Dan Haren.

Justin Upton played, but hit 8th — not good for fantasy owners.

Games in Progress – Dodgers / Padres & Angels / A’s

I love Chris Young this year, and he hasn’t disappointed so far.  I didn’t realize that Chase Headley had third base eligibility in your standard Yahoo! league and if third wasn’t so deep this year, he’d have some value.  If he gets hot, snap him up — otherwise he’s going to be your league average third baseman (fantasy wise).

Kemp batting 7th lowers his value.  I understand starting with Furcal and Hudson but…c’mon!  Obviously, if Hudson sticks in the 2-hole, he’ll have value.

Top prospect, Trevor Cahill, went 5 but walked 5! He also gave up 5 hits! How did he only allow 2 ER?  He has more strike-out potential than the 1 that he posted tonight.

…hopefully the Blue Jays game will be on basic cable tomorrow.  It’s the second game of the year, and the game’s already been shifted into the 400′s on Rogers cable.

Luckily, I wasn’t fooled by Sportsnets’ trickery and promptly switched away from the Maple Leafs game.

Ted Rogers, if you’re reading this in Heaven? could you please magically allow our cable box to get MLB extra innings for free?

2008 brought us 10 pitchers who achieved the magical fantasy mark of 200 strike-outs. 2007 brought us only 8, and 2006 only 6 pitchers who managed to get to the 200K mark.

Obviously, other than skill, the main obstacle is health. With that said, lets break ‘em down into the gents that could achieve 200 strikeouts.

The Sure Things?

Johan Santana – New York Mets

Since grabbing a full-fledged starting gig in 2004, Johan Santana has notched 200+ strike-outs every year — this is good.  However, during the same period he’s never pitched less than 219 innings — bad.

Santana’s strike-outs per nine also took a huge hit in 2008, dropping from 9.6K/9 down to 7.91! K/9.  In his previous years, they hadn’t fallen below 9.25. Expecting 240IP from Santana is quite a bit, and probably too much — a more realistic goal is 215IP-or bust.

Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants

The littlest Lincecum has the “stuff” but he’s just so tiny. It’s always interesting to watch hard-throwers develop, and it’s best to find where the velocity comes from.  Chris O’Leary does a solid job analyzing Lincecum’s throwing motion, and notes that there is some inverted-L in there.  It’s hard to tell from the angles he provides, and while it looks the part — you really can’t tell how much twist/torque he puts on it.

Lincecum comes in at darn near 10K per nine, which means he does have the lee-way for a DL stint, or maybe two.  After last year’s Cy-Young push — I wouldn’t be surprised to see his pitch-count dialed down a bit.

Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers

Billingsley stands out because he hasn’t quite reached the “fantasy-ace” plateau yet, his other numbers aren’t quite there yet but he’s probably your third best bet to nab 200K. At 6’1-245lbs, Billingsley certainly fits the part of hard-throwing front of the rotation innings eater.

Billingsley is one of the few pitchers with a 9.00+ K per 9, and no outstanding risk.  I’d expect the peripherals to come down as well.

Injuries or Innings Pitched

Here’s the group of ball-players who will either battle injuries, or will have to put up crazy-nuts IP numbers to attain that magical mark.

C.C. Sabathia – New York Yankees

I’m terrified of C.C. this year, and while he’s sturdily? built, I’m not sure about those 253 Innings the Brewers piled on Sabathia during their playoff push.  Over the last two years, Sabathia is coming eerily close to 500IP — scary.  While there’s nothing to say that Sabathia can’t take it, the Yankees aren’t going to push him considering they’ll have him around for potentially 6 more years after 2009.

Sabathia’s career K per 9 isn’t staggering, but it’s solid. Expecting somewhere around 8K per 9 seems about fair, which would be a slight decline from last year’s stellar 8.93K per 9.  Which would put C.C. Sabathia at about 225 Innings Pitched to join the 200K club.

A.J. Burnett – New York Yankees

The Yankees other off-season toy, could be a dandy if he can stay healthy.  Burnett has buckets of talent, and the only thing keeping him from fulfilling his all-star potential is his elbow (which i discussed here).

Burnett has the dirty dirty, but signing him to a deal longer than 2-years is suicide. Burnett comes in at about a K per Inning, and has put up 9.5 K per nine over the past couple years.

Quite Simply: 200 IP = 200 K.

Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies

It seems as though Hamels is adjusting to the role of ACE, quite well. As his Innings increased, he’s clearly lowered his K rate.  His K rate as dropped each year he’s been in the bigs from 9.86, to 8.69, to 2008′s 7.76.

If Hamels stays under 8 K per 9, he’s going to have some issues getting to 200K.  It does however make sense to see Hamels K rate even off somewhere closer to the mid-to-low 8′s, which puts him in the right area to approach 200K without incurring crazy pitch-counts or innings-pitched.

Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres

The 200K club is indeed volatile, yet Peavy notched 200K three years in a row from 2005-2007 (216, 215, 240) and then fell off a cliff in 2008.  Injuries limited Peavy to 173 IP, and dropped his K:9 down almost a full point to 8.60.

If Peavy stays healthy, he’s a lock for 200K.  I’d mark him down for somewhere between his 8.60K/9 mark and his previous marks of 9.50-9.60K/9.  If Peavy goes for a K per Inning, as predicted by almost all of the projection models — he’s as good as bet as anyone to get 200K

Rich Harden – Chicago Cubs

He and Lincecum are the top strike-out pitchers in the game.  With a 10+ K per 9, Harden can rack up the strikeouts in under 200 IP.  The problem is, Harden rarely gets to that mark.

Javier Vazquez – Atlanta Braves

Mr. Reliable.  Vazquez seems to put up solid stats wherever he’s shipped off to. While Vazquez hasn’t put up a full 230 IP, since 2004 — with a high-8 k per nine, he doesn’t need it. There’s no reason to believe that Vazquez has hit the wall, and he’s got a solid shot of getting the 220 IP he’ll need to top the 200K mark.

Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw only went for 107 innings, starting 21 Games in 2008. Personally, I expected a bit more than 8.36 K per 9 from Kershaw considering his minor-league track record.  A slight increase to about a strike-out per inning seems reasonable, as Kershaw’s got a nasty one-two fastball-curveball combination.

Now, you have to ask yourself how many innings Kershaw will pitch in 2009.  He’s the franchise, and Joe Torre will keep him on the shortest leash you can think of.  There’s no reason to get his pitch-count too high and risk his future. Even if Kershaw starts enough games, he’ll be getting the quick-hook too often for him to nab 200 IP.

As with any Kershaw Article, I’ll link here: The Hardball Times Evaluates Kershaw.

Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners

This is the year for Felix, The King, Hernandez.  Felix is all but locked into his 8.50K per 9, and there’s very little reason to believe it’ll take a hit even if he starts pitching rather than throwing.  He’ll always be up there for top average velocity on his fastball, and he’ll always have 200K Potential.

Scott Kazmir – Tampa Bay Rays

I’m on the fence with Kazmir more than any pitcher in this group.  Kazmir’s tiny-little frame is always going to be a massive injury risk, but it doesn’t particularly look like he’s going to be be a complete waste. When Pitching-God, Rick Peterson, told the public that he could fix Victor Zambrano in one session, the entire trade got blown way out of proportion.

The Mets knew they were dealing away a pitcher in Kazmir that had all of the talent in the world, but was going to be plagued by injuries for the majority of his career. In return, they assumed they were snagging a solid K:9 guy who had one fatal flaw, that Peterson believed was fixable.  Well, Zambrano continued to suck it up and Kazmir has already provided enough value to make this one of the worst trades, in recorded history.

Last year Kazmir lowered the amount of sliders he threw by almost 10 percent, and for a pitcher with a wicked slider — this should have posed a problem.  Yes, he did drop from 10+ strike-outs per nine down to a very respectable strike-out per inning. He managed to come in at third behind Harden and Chamberlain in K per 9 for pitchers with at least 100IP (which to me eliminates relievers pretty much).

Kazmir is going to need to use his slider to maintain a strike-out per inning ratio, but it’ll more than likely shorten his career.  Even if he relegates his slider to a pure out-pitch, using it about 10 percent of the time as he did last year — he’s still an injury risk.

Buyer Beware.

The Rest of the Best?

Dan Haren – Arizona

Ridiculously close, Haren seems to have broken the “Billy-Beane-Decided-To-Trade-Me-So-Now-Imma-Suck-It-Up” curse that so many Athletics have fallen into. I’m not sure if Danny Haren can maintain his 8.50 K per 9, as prior to last year he was regularly posting sub-8.00 K per nine.

Haren has improved each and every year, from his days as a Cardinal to his most recent season as a Diamondback.  I’d bank on a mid-7′s K to 9, with about 200-220IP.

Ervin Santana – Los Angeles Angels

Santana just signed himself a big ol’ deal and every thing’s looking up for Ervin.  I do however have a hard time believing he’ll replicate his 2008 numbers.

You can trace his drastic improvement to cutting the junk, and throwing his slider harder and more often. He upped the velocity of his slider from 81mph to 84mph, to go along with a 2mph increase in fastball velocity.

This obviously lead to an almost 16 percent improvement (or decrease) in O-Contact. Batters went from making contact with balls tossed outside of the zone from 70 percent in 2007, to 53.6%.

An increase like this in velocity always worries me, as they may know A-Rod’s cousin which could spell injury.  Speculation will kill you in fantasy leagues though — or maybe it’ll save you.

Zach Greinke – Kansas City Royals

Everything looks right for a Zach Greinke break-out. A full season, and a slight increase in K per 9 should mean an easy 200K for Greinke.

At this point, I’m banking on Greinke to outperform comparable starters such as Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Ryan Dempster, and Matt Cain.  If someone in this list floats your boat, then go with it.  Nothing feels better than cashing in on a gut feeling.  My second stomach says Nolasco.

Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays

Halladay has to log a lot of innings to come close to 200K and the last time he touched the magic mark prior to last year was 2003 when he went for 266 IP (which he followed up by going for 133IP). Halladay increased his K per 9 to 7.5 last year, which he’ll have issues replicating.  Halladay seems like the most likely to fail.

Edison Volquez – Cincinnati Reds

Volquez is another starter I have issues believing will end up with 200 Ks when all’s said and done.  This is independent of the amount of fail Volquez will bring to the table, as even with a stellar 2008 9.50 K:9 — I’m not sure if he manages.

Something definitely seems off with Volquez going into 2009, and you have to remember this is the same pitcher that’s constantly battled control issues.  If the batters stop swinging, the K’s go down. 2008′s 83 percent contact rate in the ZONE, is a huge drop from his previous seasons of ’round aboot 90ish.

Erik Bedard – Seattle Mariners

Bedard, like Harden, is a ballin’ ass Canadian who has some  serious issues staying healthy.  Bedard looked to be the Saviour of Seattle, until they realized they gave up way too much to get him (and Adam Jones still  hasn’t come close to his potential).

In 2007, Bedard put up a ridiculous 10.71 K per 9 and managed 221 strikeouts in 182 Innings pitched. It’s probably stupid-silly to expect another 10+ K per 9 from Bedard as he’s going to be concentrating on his health –but– a strike-out per  seems like a fair ceiling.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Boston Red Sox

In 2007, Dice-K went for 201 strike-outs in 204 IP.  If he manages to go a full-season, of 220-230IP he shouldn’t have a problem hitting 200K.

He will however kill your WHIP, and if he ever decides to stop painting corners his K per 9 is bound to come down.

Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs

Something’s fishy about Ryan Dempster, and I can’t put my finger on it.  It’s not like Dempster hasn’t done this before: In 2000, Dempster went for 209K in 226 IP. But then, Bingo-Bango-Bongo, Dempster’s K per 9 slowly fell from 8.31 to 6.59 over the next 2 years.

Then Dempster was moved to reliever/closers role, where he hiked thems K’s back up.  Last year, as a starter Dempster revisited the nice side of 8 K per 9 posting an 8.14K:9.  Which brought him to 187 K’s in 206 Innings.

I’d tend to expect another drop-off from Dempster, and realistically don’t give him a shot at making the 200K club.

Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers

He didn’t injure his arm, shoulder or wrist. There’s no reason to expect anything other than a return to form for Gallardo. The problem is, Gallardo only pitched 110 Innings in his Rookie Season of 2007 — so what is a return to form?  He spent a full year soaking in the mental aspects of the game, so he should be more mature than you’d expect from someone who hasn’t even pitched 200 total innings in the bigs.

It’s fair to assume Gallardo will continue to put up at least 8 K per 9 at the very minimum. Bill James and CHONE prodjection models have Gallardo coming in at 9.23-9.25 K per 9.

Gallardo definitely isn’t your standard injury risk, but 200 innings may be a lot to ask of him in his first full season in the majors.

We’re Not There Yet

Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox (194 K), Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks(194K), and John Lackey – Anaheim Angels (199K)

None of these fantasy aces have reached 200K’s, ever.  They’ve all come tantalizingly close, though.  Any one of these guys could put together a season of 200K.  You get to choose between whether Beckett gets to 200IP, Webb to 230IP, or Lackey to 225ish.

During the course of this list, I realized that the prevailing thought was that it was more likely for a pitcher to break habit and pitch 200+ innings than it was for a pitcher to raise his K per 9, even half a K.

At this point, I think that’s the opposite of reality.

Let Us Get Crazy: From an Outside Shot to Downright Crazy.

This is where I get to throw out some ridiculous names, and hope for the best.  While some of the names may not be completely off the wall, they’ll do.

Outside Shot:

Ted Lilly – Chicago Cubs: His K per 9 always seems to flutter in the high-7′s or low-8′s.  He’s obviously got a shot at eclipsing 200K. Verdict: No.

Aaron Harang – Cincinnati Reds: 216 K’s in 2006, 217 K’s in 2007, Mad Suckage to the tune of 153K in 2008.  K per 9 bottomed out at about 7.5 last year, a bounce back year? What ever happened to Harang?. Verdict: Close, Real Close. But No.

Ubaldo Jiminez – Colorado Rockies: One of the hardest tossers of the bunch, but pitching at Coors really kills.  Regardless, he still puts up a high 7′s K per 9 so he does have a shot.  Verdict: O/U 199K.

David Price – Tampa Bay Rays: There’s no way in hell he gets the Innings needed but a 7.5-8K per 9 certainly is attainable for this over-hyped future stud. Verdict: BUZZZ, No.

Joba Chamberlain – New York Yankees: Joba’s struck out 10.5 batters per nine innings last year, and while it’s bound to come down if he switches to a full time starter; you’re still looking at a strike-out per inning.  The only question here is, how will Joba be used? The Yankees have improved across the board, and at this point — I dont really consider Joba in the equation.  It’s not “How will Joba do in Relief vs. Starting?”, the question is “Will we get more value from Phil Hughes starting and Joba in the pen, than we will with Joba starting and Hughes in the Pen?”

I tend to think that Hughes should start, and Joba dominate the ass-end of the ballgame, at least to start.  Someone on that Yankees staff is going to get hurt, and I doubt they’ll have all four guys (Sabathia, Burnett, HGH-Andy, and Chairman-Wang) healthy at one time.

Joba notches 170 IP, which’ll put him close but no cigar. Actually, lets say 171 IP to make the math easier:  171IP = 19 Games (per 9s) * 9 K per 9 = 171 strike-outs (or times 10 = 190 K)

Close, but no cigar.  If Joba starts and finishes with a starting gig, it’ll be wise to assume somewhere in the region of 8.75-9 K per 9.  So, with a strike-out per inning pitched, you can do the math. 200IP = 200K. Verdict: If the Yankees rotation can stay somewhat healthy, The Fail.  Otherwise, the success

Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins

Nolasco put up some great late-season numbers last year, and he goes into 2009 as everyone’s favourite Sleeper at the starting pitcher position.

I like Nolasco’s 7.88 K’s per 9, but based on his Minor League numbers I’d expect a small dip.  Even at 7.5 K per 9, Nolasco is the kind of pitcher that can eat enough innings to spit out 200K. Verdict: One of the best sleepers out there, but not a 200K man.

Time To Inhale Some Crack Cocaine…

Chris Young – San Diego Padres: There’s absolutely no piece of imperical data that shows Chris Young can come close to 200IP.  The man does bring the nasty though, and with somewhere on the nice side of 8 K per 9, he doesn’t have to go for crazy Innings — just get by 200IP. Verdict: I’m buying it.

John Maine – New York Mets: Not sure about this one, and I dont particularly feel like predicting a return to 8.48 K per 9 for Maine to go along with 215IP. Verdict: Fail.

Wandy Rodriguez – Houston Astros: Wandy didn’t even get to 150 innings pitched last year, but he made ‘em count.  Posting an 8.58 K per 9 opens eyes, and while it might be a bit much to ask of Wandy to go for 200K — he is a nice little sleeper going into 2009. He’s also got a great name, and crazy-awesome home/road splits. Verdict: Better Pitcher in 2009, Worse K to 9 Ratio.

Oliver Perez – New York Mets: In 2004, Perez had one of the best sliders in the game and he posted darn-near 240K. Then Perez turned on the suck-switch, and the free-fall began. Over the last two years, Perez has went for 8.85 and 8.35 K per nine but hasn’t had the IP to top the 200K mark. If Perez can manage himself 220 IP, he’ll come darn close to 200K. Verdict: 185K’s isn’t 200.

Randy Johnson – San Francisco Giants: There’s no way the Big Unit stays healthy. Other than that, he switched to a lovely park, and posted a 8.46 K per 9 last year. That’s higher than young-guns like Kershaw, Cueto, Parra, Greinke. Verdict: No, Not Possible. Dagger!

Jonathan O. Sanchez – San Francisco Giants: The ERA looks ugly, but the K per 9 is gorgeous.  Right now Sanchez sits as the Giants’ fifth starter, and 200 IP is a bit of a longshot but…

Rich Hill – Baltimore Orioles: Really, it could seriously happen. The whole 8 BB per 9 last year is sort of AWFUL, but he’s got the K potential.  In 2006, and 2007, Hill went for 8.15 and 8.45 respectively.

Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins: Even after Tommy John Surgery, Liriano is still coming darn close to a strike-out per.  He’s no longer that 12K per 9 guy, and his slider no longer has the bite but he’s still got a darn good shot if he can get to 200 IP. Verdict: Naw..Well Maybe..Close..Okay, Sure.

Now, The List (in no particular order).

• Johan Santana
• Tim Lincecum
• Chad Billingsley
• Jake Peavy
• Javier Vazquez
• Felix Hernandez
• Zach Greinke
• Erik Bedard
• Chris Young (ouch)
• Yovanni Gallardo
• Danny Haren

Obviously guys like Sabathia and Burnett, even Harden have a better shot at touching 200K’s than Chris Young or Erik Bedard.

Chris Young Photo Courtesy Of SD Dirk / Flickr

Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009

Which starting pitchers will excel in 2009? A quick little look at the numbers each SP should put up, combined with a gut feeling of what they’ll actually put up.

#1 Johan Santana – SP – NY Mets

Bill James Prediction: 18-7, 234K, 3.01ERA, 1.07WHIP, 9.16 K:9

2008: 16 W, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206K, 7.91 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

Great things were expected of Santana last year after a tremendous 2007 campaign and while he didn’t disappoint, his strikeout numbers drastically decreased. 2008 was the first year that Santana failed to strikeout at least one batter per inning since becoming a starting pitcher.

Santana’s other 2008 numbers remained similar to career averages, and the slight increase in BB:9 isn’t concerning.

At this point, Santana is the safest bet. While another pitcher or two may finish ahead of Santana in the final standings — they’ll also come with larger risks.

CitiBank will almost certainly favour pitchers in the same manner that Shea did as the dimensions are almost exactly the same.

If Lincecum wasn’t 160lbs soaking wet, and Sabathia didn’t have the potential to eat the big apple; they’d both be able to give Santana a run for his money. As always, pitchers are a fickle bunch and even the dominant ones manage to get themselves hurt ruining your fantasy season.

#2 Tim Lincecum – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 17-9, 272K, 3.02ERA, 1.19WHIP, 10.2 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 265K, 10.5 K:9, 3.26 K:BB

Lincecum has potential to put up big boy stats, and quite possibly lead the league in just about every meaningful pitching category. I’d almost certainly put him as the top pitcher if not for his petite frame. At 5’11, 170lbs, the body just isn’t made to throw 95mph. His delivery is also a concern, and the possibility of injury is just to great to put Lincecum at number 1.

Everything else is great for Lincecum. He pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, and he’s got great ratios.

While his WINS may not stack up against the kids in New York, he’ll manage more than a couple. Wins are the most random stat of the bunch anyways, so banking on them is generally a silly idea.

James’ predictions are almost always insanely conservative, so to see Lincecum improving on last years strike out numbers is a great sign. If you think Lincecum pitches all year without injury — there’s no harm in drafting him above Santana.

#3 C.C. Sabathia – SP – NY Yankees

BJP: 16-10, 205K, 3.48ERA, 1.23WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 17 W, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251K, 8.93 K:9, 4.25 K:BB

Personally, I wouldn’t touch Sabathia with a ten foot pole. You’re going to have to pay too much for him in an auction draft, or draft him too early in a snake. Unless he falls into your lap, he’s probably going to be a reach due to the New York hype machine.

Sabathia also seems to have a bit of Manny Ramirez in him and now that he’s got the big fat contract, he may just let himself go.

Everyone will remember his 2008 finish, but the start of his 2008 season was concerning.

With all that said, C.C. Sabathia will fill the stat sheet for you. He’ll obviously put up solid win totals playing for the rebuilt Yankees.

C.C. Sabathia should top 200 Ks easily, and his ratios will remain as some of the best in the majors.

#4a Jake Peavy – SP – SD? Padres?

BJP: 14-8, 202K, 3.26ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.0 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166K, 8.60 K:9, 2.81 K:BB

Peavy’s 2008 numbers weren’t as flashy as normal which has more to do with his IP totals than the slight decline in K:9.

Peavy probably has the best value in the top 10 SP, as many experts have him rated lower.

Peavy pitches in a pitcher’s park, and generally keeps his WHIP in the 1.05-1.10 range. His 2008 strained right elbow more than likely raised his WHIP while his GS fell.

Predicting a “bounce back” year for Peavy is easy to do. The potential for 210Ks with a sub-1.10 WHIP, and sub-3.00 ERA is hard to resist.

The difference between Peavy and the next group of pitchers simply comes down to ratios. Peavy’s ERA the past five years is 2.27, 2.88, 4.09, 2.54, 2.85 along with a 1.20, 1.04, 1.23, 1.06, 1.18 WHIP.

#4b Cole Hamels – SP – PHI Phillies

BJP: 16-8, 214K, 3.24ERA, 1.12WHIP, 8.64 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196K, 7.76 K:9, 3.70 K:BB

The difference between Hamels and Peavy is negligible and you can’t go wrong with either one. Personally, I think you’re going to have to pay more for Hamels for the same amount of production. Both have similiar ceilings, but Hamels has an offense behind him — which should lead to increased wins. Philadelphia also has a rock-solid bullpen that’s capable of holding onto leads, even with the loss of J.C. Romero.

If you can get Hamels cheaper than Peavy, by all means take him for the guaranteed wins.

Hamels has been injury free since he came to the Majors, but I believe he had a small series of minor league injuries. The potential is always there when you’re not built like a brick shithouse.

Hamels is the last of the guaranteed 200K, 1.20WHIP guys without injury worries. If you’re going to draft a starting pitcher early, I’d recommend getting in before this cut off point.

#6 Brandon Webb – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 15-9, 176K, 3.37ERA, 1.24WHIP, 7.14 K:9

2008: 22 W, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183K, 7.27 K:9, 2.82 K:BB

Webb has been solid for a while now, and seems to go through an un-hittable phase each and every year. He’s got ridiculous sinking action on his fast ball which he throws about 3/4 of the time, at around 88-90mph.

He’s not a pure strike out pitcher, but he’ll creep up on 200k if he can notch 220-230 IP. This is a bit concerning however as he’s entering the “DEAR GOD- HIS ARM JUST FELL OFF” stage after 5 seasons of 200IP in a row. There’s the potential there for injury, but its limited.

Everything points to Brandon Webb keeping his WHIP in the 1.20 range. However, Webb went through a couple stints last year where he’d give up 5-7 runs per contest, which is worrisome.

There’s very little risk in drafting a player like Webb, and while he may not put up crazy K numbers he’ll hold his own as the ace of any staff.

#7 Dan Haren – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 14-10, 174K, 3.59ERA, 1.20WHIP, 7.46 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206K, 8.53 K:9, 5.15 K:BB

When the Oakland Athletics get rid of a pitcher, he almost always becomes terrible. Dan Haren actually improved, however.

Haren was a machine in 2008, and with a BABIP of .315 after 4 years of .305 and below — he may actually improve.

Pitchers generally get a bump when they switch leagues as the hitters haven’t timed their delivery, nor have they seen their arsenal. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Haren come back down to earth a little bit although he had pitched a year and a half in Cardinal red and white.

With a 2008 K:9 of 8.58, a WHIP of 1.13, and a remarkable K:BB ratio of 5.15 — Haren is looking solid.

As mentioned earlier, Bill James is generally quite conservative and will rely on a three year average rather than a stunning previous year, if the data is available. I tend to agree with this approach, unless you believe a player has turned the corner. Obviously, you can’t tell simply based on stats whether or not a player has turned the corner.

So it’s up to you. Haren could easily put up numbers better than Webb and on par with Peavy and Hamels. There’s a bit of risk here, but not enough to keep you up at night.

#8 Roy Halladay – SP – TOR Blue Jays

BJP: 17-10, 172K, 3.18ERA, 1.13WHIP, 6.42 K:9

2008: 20 W, 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 206K, 7.53 K:9, 5.23 K:BB

Roy Halladay’s totals rely on how many games he starts. Halladay is a great pitcher, and a must have in any league that considers Complete Games or Quality Starts a category.

Roy’s K:9 took a huge leap last year, after many years of a consistent 5.5 to 6.5 ratio. To predict a repeat of his 2008 7.54 K per 9 is somewhat foolish.

When you draft Halladay, you’ll get your wins, era, and whip — guaranteed.

Unfortunately, his strike out numbers are going to depend heavily on innings pitched. He’s made a habit of throwing 230+ inninngs, and when he does that, he’ll put up solid K numbers.

While I have no data to suggest that Halladay ends up with a major shoulder injury this year, it seems quite possible given his workload and the Blue Jays dependance on him.

#9 Josh Beckett – SP – BOS Red Sox

BJP: 13-8, 176K, 3.57ERA, 1.22WHIP, 8.38 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172K, 8.88 K:9, 5.06 K:BB

Josh has the dirty dirty and can hang with anyone. Over the past two years, he’s drastically cut back on his walks per nine (from 3+ to under 2.00), which fantasy owners love.

Unfortunately, Beckett has blister issues. He’s always has blister issues, and they’re certainly caused by his uncle charlie. His Curve is probably his best strike out pitch and he needs it to be an elite pitcher.

To add to this, he’s now becoming a dirty old man who bitches about his back all the time. So, he’s got some serious injury issues and if you’re banking on 200IP you may be in for a ride.

When Josh Beckett does pitch however, it’s beautiful. He strikes out a batter an inning, he’ll put up a sub-1.20 WHIP, his K:BB is 5 and he plays for the Red Sox.

#10 Rich Harden – SP – CHI Cubs

BJP: 11-5, 151K, 3.02ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.44 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 181K, 11.01 K:9, 2.97 K:BB

Yah, this is stupid.

Rich Harden is going to get hurt.

This pick / rating depends on how deep your league is. In a deep league, Harden gets moved down. But in a shallow league, where when Harden makes his eventual DL trip you’ll be able to spot start guys with favorable match-ups and keep your ERA under four: Harden goes here.

Harden’s numbers last year were ridiculous: 11! K! per! 9! , 1.06 WHIP

Basically, sit down and realistically figure out how many innings you think Harden will pitch. If you think he pitches more than 150 innings, its worthwhile to draft him. Even at 150 innings, he’ll strike out 160-170 and when you add that with 50 innings of spot starting nice matchups — you’re going to end up with a 200K guy, with a 1.20 WHIP, a 3.20 ERA.

Harden does have a huge history of injuries, and he’ll probably go down. How you value him really depends on what kind of waiver wire you think you’ll have. If the top 80-90 SP are gone, you’re probably going to want to wait on Harden.

Harden’s the biggest boom / bust of the entire draft.

Generally, I like to see at least a 7.5 to 8 strikeouts per nine, to throw this tag on. However, if a pitcher has a realistic shot of accumulating enough innings to reach 200 Ks with a lower ratio he should still be viewed as a source of K’s

ESPN uses an incredibly simple formula to determine which ball parks favor hitters, and which favor pitchers. Its called park factors, and since your pitchers play half of their games at home — it’s pretty important.

Greg Maddux-type accuracy is great to have on your roster. Dice-K type accuracy, is not. Dice-K can hit all of the spots, and ends up walking quite a few batters because he’s going for the perfect pitch each and every time. This is as much about WHIP as it is about accuracy.

Simple: he’s either coming off an injury, has a history of injuries, or he’s someone who’s 5’10, 170lbs, and throws 100mph. Tiny frames aren’t meant to throw that hard.

If you play with fire, you get burnt. These are just risky players, and a few of them on a roster is brilliant, but stacking your roster with boom/bust guys will end you up losing more often than winning.

Tim Lincecum Photography From Dave Nelson, Flickr