Third Base

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Third Basemen

No Pedro Alvarez, Josh Vitters or Mike Moustakas in the Yahoo or ESPN Player Pool, looks like you’ll have to wait another year. There are plenty of solid keeper options at third base though, especially of the young and unproven variety.

Whether or not they’ll stick at third base, is a whole different ballgame however.  Currently Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Russell Martin, Mark DeRosa, Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez, Hank Blalock, Chase Headley and Jed Lowrie have third base eligibility in Yahoo Leagues, but they haven’t been included because I either don’t think they’ll stick or they’ll provide greater vlaue elsewhere.

Banking on Miguel Cabrera logging 15 Games at 3rd for the next 10 years is a bit iffy, and if you’re drafting Russell Martin — You’re playing him at catcher. A-Rod’s probably got a couple years at DH in him as well, which would warrant him a higher overall than positional rank.  He scoots ahead of Longoria in the overall ranks.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. David Wright – NY Mets – 26 - I thought he had another year to wait, but with Rodriguez’s injury, Wright’s the best third base option, and should continue stealing 15+ bases for the next 4 years.

2. Evan Longoria – TB Rays – 23 - Longoria’s a talent, but I’d expect somewhat of a sophomore slump this year. Blasphemy, I know. In the long run, he should provide you with 10 years of top-3 third basemen play.  A few more SB would be nice.

3. Alex Rodriguez – NY Yankees – 33 - Loses a few months to injury, but he’ll play well into his late 30’s. I’ll take 4 years of first-round talent over 8 years of 5th round talent, any day.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – WAS Nationals – 24 - It’s a tough choice between Zimmerman and Gordon. Gordon ends up being the better player, but Washington surrounds Zimmerman with more talent.

5. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 - Re-upped with Boston, and should produce at a high level for at least 5 more years.  There’s the possibility that Youkilis gets moved back to third to make room for Lars Anderson.

6. Alex Gordon – KC Royals – 25 - If Gordon wants to cash in on all that talent and become a superstar, 2009’s the year.  KC’s putting together a squad that can mash, and they’ll at least be fun to watch.

7. Edwin Encarnacion – CIN Reds – 26 – 2009 is the year Encarnacionn puts it together. I dont think he has the talent of a Zimmerman or Gordon, but the ballpark’s definitely in his favour.  I’d have no problem ranking Edwin above both Zimmerman and Gordon.

8. Aramis Ramirez – CHI Cubs – 30 - Same boat as Youkilis.

9. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 - I haven’t the slightest clue where Sandoval plays out his career, but his versatility can’t hurt.  There’s a good amount of risk associated with Sandoval, and I think you’ll probably have to overpay to get him in any keeper league.

10. Mark Reynolds – ARI Diamondbacks – 25 - Lots of power, not much average.  You’re getting what you pay for.

11. Chipper Jones – ATL Braves – 36 - Where to put Chipper? He can’t stay healthy, and he’s getting old.  He did post his best batting average ever as a 35 year old.  You’ve probably got two years of top-5 third basemen, and 1 year old top-10.  Adjust your rankings based on the depth of your league.

12. Garrett Atkins – COL Rockies – 29 - If Atkins stays in Colorado, he’s probably two spots higher.  Unfortunately, I can’t see him sticking around the mile-high city. Best case scenario: Atkins plays the year out at 3rd base, and eventually gets moved to first base — but he gets to stay in Colorado.  Worst Case: Atkins gets traded to a not-so-hitter-friendly park.

13. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - His next five years could be 30HR, 25HR, 8HR, 17HR, 32HR.  It’s really two bad that he was such a terrible second basemen.  The Marlins are stacked with young talent, so he should continue to put up R & RBI numbers.  There’s also the chance that Florida cleans house again.

14. Adrian Beltre – SEA Mariners – 29 - I can’t believe he’s only 29. He’s been underachieving for almost 10 years now!  Taking a peek at Beltre’s numbers is quite enjoyable. In a purely baseball sense, a sense that takes into account his stellar defense, the Mariners really didn’t waste that massive wad of cash-money signing Beltre.  Now, if only someone could get on base for him.

15. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Who knows what he develops into. He’s ceilings probably 7th or 8th, and his basement is about Joe Crede.

16. Aubrey Huff – BAL Orioles – 32 – Eligibility is going to be a problem going forth.

17. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 – Same boat as Stewart.  Wood’s massive power potential at the shortstop position is worth the risk, but at the third base position 30 HR isn’t all that uncommon.

18. Mat Gamel – MIL Brewers – 23 – His defense is getting better, and he’s almost a below average third baseman.  I don’t know if he’ll stick at third, but he’s got a whoooole lotta potential.

19. Josh Fields – CHI White Sox – 26 – This could be Gamel four years from now.  Fields has got a boatload of potential, and I’d be taking a chance on him.  All of the reports out of Spring Training are encouraging.

20. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 – I probably screwed up this Figgins ranking, but it’s impossible to judge atypical performers in keeper leagues.  In a keeper league, you can’t really gameplan around Figgins by drafting a power-hitting MI to offset Figgins’ lack of power from a typical HR-hitting position. You just want to put together the best team without getting too cute.  With Figgins’ injury history, and almost all of his value coming from speed — I’d  avoid him as my third baseman.

21. Brett Wallace – STL Cardinals – 22 – Ooooh, Ahhhh! Baseball America has him only six spots lower than the mucho-hyped-upped-o, Mat Gamel.  Wallace comes in at the 40th best prospect, and a whole lotta power potential.  Glaus is getting old, and who knows how long Freese can hold Wallace off.  Well worth the risk at this point.

22. Kevin Kouzmanoff – SD Padres – 27 - I have an unhealthy hatred for San Diego third basemen.  I think it’s because I sat on Sean Burroughs for so long. Anyways, here’s a tidbit about Burroughs: After winning the league little world series, a team coached by his father and 1974 AL MVP, Jeff Burroughs; Sean was invited onto David Letterman.  When asked what his dream job was, instead of coming up with the obvious answer of:  “follow in my dad’s footsteps and become a ball player,” Burroughs told Letterman he wanted to be a gynecologist. Kids say the darndest things.  Anyways, I do not want the Kouz on my team.

23. Troy Glaus – STL Cardinals – 32 - Still has a few good years left in him, 2009 isn’t one of those years. He’s got Wallace breathing down his neck, too.

24. Carlos Guillen – DET Tigers – 33 – Detroit will find a spot for Guillen to play, and Guillen should produce for a couple more years.

25. Andy LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 25 - Now that he’s with his brother, and hopefully relaxed — LaRoche is probably a very profitable risk to take heading into 2009.

26. Joe Crede – MIN Twins – 30 – Signed a one-year deal with the Twins.

27. Dayan Viciedo – CHI White Sox – 20 – Cuba, Cuba.  Should be solid, if/when Josh Fields fails.  Even if Fields succeeds, Viciedo will probably snag a spot in the outfield.  At the very least, keep an eye on him.

28. Melvin Mora – BAL Orioles – 37 – I couldn’t believe that Mora was 37 Years old.  Maybe 1 or 2 seasons of 90+ RBI left in ‘em.

29. Bill Hall – MIL Brewers – 29 - Bill Hall should be in his prime, he’s not.  He’s having trouble making contact, let alone smash-killing.  With Gamel breathing down his neck, maybe this year’s the year.

30. Matt Tuiasosopo – SEA Mariners – Solid youngster, you might have to wait a couple years.  I dont see him being anything special though.

31. Mike Lowell – BOS Red Sox – 35

32. Wilson Betemit – CHI White Sox – 27

33. Ty Wigginton – BAL Orioles – 31

34. Jose Bautista – TOR Jays – 28

35. Jeff Keppinger – HOU Astros – 28

36. Brian Buscher – MIN Twins – 27

37. Conor Gillaspie – SF Giants – 21 – I think Gillaspie flops.  Maybe you want to move him above Tuiasosopo, but I dont.

38. Russell Branyan – SEA Mariners – 33

38. Jack Hannahan – OAK Athletics – 29

39. Eric Chavez – OAK Athletics – 31

40. Casey Blake – LA Dodgers – 35

41. Scott Rolen – TOR Blue Jays – 33

Unfortunately, I’m sick as a dog, and the regular season is only a few days ago — So if these seemed rushed, they are.

Third Base

Pudgy Third Base Review: Ryan Zimmerman

Third Base is unbelievably deep this year, like deep-deep;  like a “Dancer” from Thailand who illegally comes to Toronto to work at Zanzibar, deep.

I really don’t think I’ve ever started a third basemen at a UTIL or CI spot but things may change this year.  After Wright, Longoria, Rodriguez, Youkilis, Ramirez and Jones there’s a beautifully deep mess of third basemen with 30-HR potential.

Ryan Zimmerman is one of those guys. Zimmerman’s coming off the board as the 107th pick, which is comparable to Carlos Delgado and his 124th overall pick as a first basemen.

Zimmerman experienced a nagging left-shoulder injury that cost him about 60 games, and postponed which should have been his breakout year.  It’s now 2009, and Ryan Zimmerman is still a beast.

YR/PRO	AB	2B	HR	R	RBI	AVG	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO
05	58	10	0	6	6	0.397	0.25	0.419	0.569	0.988	0.172
06	614	47	20	84	110	0.287	0.51	0.351	0.471	0.822	0.184
07	653	43	24	99	91	0.266	0.49	0.33	0.458	0.788	0.191
08	428	24	14	51	51	0.283	0.44	0.333	0.442	0.774	0.159
BILLJAMES	576	42	22	84	87	0.29	0.54	0.351	0.484	0.835	0.194
CHONE	514	36	19	78	78	0.296	0.6	0.364	0.488	0.852	0.192
Marcel	454	30	15	63	65	0.282	0.51	0.345	0.456	0.801	0.174
OLIVER	449	31	15			0.284	0.44	0.336	0.463	0.799	0.179
ZIPS	553	33	24	82	76	0.28	0.52	0.342	0.481	0.823	0.201

Looking at Zimmerman’s solid power numbers, it’s pretty much a given that he’ll eventually develop 30-HR power. Zimmerman’s career best has been 24 HR, but the amount of doubles he consistently hits really sheds light on his power.

While Zimmerman’s swing is textbook, his batting average hasn’t reflected it.  Zimmerman appears to be a lock for .285, but he should have .300 potential somewhere in there. Walking half as much as you strike-out isn’t terrible, but with Zimmerman’s skill set, you should expect an improvement.  CHONE is the only projection model that predicts a noticeable increase in BB:K.

Zimmerman is consistently among the league leaders in doubles as he has terrific gap power: when he hits the ball, he hits it hard. After returning from the disabled list last year, Zimmerman went for .306 AVG, .370 OBP, and .455 Slugging percentage.

Now almost a full-year removed from his shoulder injury, the question on your mind should be: When’s Zimmerman going to turn his doubles power into home-run power?

The answer is probably this year.  If he doesn’t manage to get to that magical 30-HR mark, he’ll at least end up in the high-20’s.

The Washington Nationals line-up is also improved with the addition of Josh Willingham and Adam Dunn, and maturation of Lastings Milledge and Elijah Dukes. This may only be worth a couple runs and a few rbi when viewed against the backdrop of Zimmerman’s 2007 season, but it starts to put him amongst the elite.

Zimmerman should come ridiculously close to notching 200 combined R and RBI and there’s no reason to think he’ll bat anywhere but third, even with a miraculously healthy Nick Johnson. The top of the Nats line-up isn’t amazingly efficient at getting on base, but they’ll do.

Expecting a line of 95R/27HR/95RBI/.290 AVG/3SB seems about right, but with a third-base class this deep, I’m not sure where to rank Zimmerman. These numbers look fairly comparable to Evan Longoria’s projected numbers, other than Bill James’ 37-HR projection for Longoria. But Considering how much everyone is overrating Longoria, Zimmerman’s a steal at 106th overall.  At the same time, Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gordon, Jorge Cantu or the extremely unlucky Mark Reynolds could also put up at least similar numbers and be gotten almost 100 picks later.

Zimmerman’s primed for a break-out year, but at the same time I’d just wait until later in the draft and take whichever third basemen is left.

Photo Courtesy Of Scott Ableman Flickr

Third Base

The Hype Machine Eats Mat Gamel – 3B – Brew Crew

Mat Gamel, The Heir Apparent? The Next Ryan Braun?

As a 23 year old, Gamel’s not quite to the point where he’s too old for Double-A but he’s getting close. For all you perverts out there, 23 in double-A is like 23 in women’s tennis: they just aren’t as sexy anymore.

In 2008, Gamel managed to grab a cup of coffee in both triple-A (5 Games) and the Show (2 Games). The sample size is obviously far too small for any reasonable analysis, however striking out 10 times in 21 AB in AAA leads me to believe he is indeed a human, and may have been pressing.

How Did Gamel Fair in AA? (Ryan Braun Mashed in Double-A and turned into an all-star. Sound Logic, Right?)

The internet’s ablaze with comparisons between Ryan Braun and Mat Gamel, all because they mashed AA pitching while proving that the mantra “No Glove, No Love” applies to players not just named, Roberto Alomar.

Thanks to The Baseball Cube, we can compare their Minor League statistics:

Player Name	Stat Type	Bavg	Obp	Slg	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HR	2B	R	RBI	SB
Ryan Braun	MLB	.301	.350	.588	938	264	1062	183	320	65	13	71	203	29	9	71	241	0.27	0.25	0.69	0.77	0.11
Mat Gamel	MLB	.500	.500	1.000	1500	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ryan Braun	Minor	.313	.375	.572	947	199	767	131	240	61	6	42	144	34	12	69	151	0.21	0.31	0.66	0.72	0.17
Mat Gamel	Minor	.305	.375	.489	864	447	1710	278	522	115	22	52	285	36	20	184	358	0.12	0.26	0.62	0.64	0.08

Statistics obviously, courtesy of the baseball cube.

Gamel’s played more games in this chart, as I haven’t included Ryan Braun’s college career. With that said, it’s pretty clear to see that Ryan Braun put up superior power and speed numbers than Mat Gamel.   With that said however, lets take a look at the Double-A seasons each had as a 22-year old:

Braun’s Line: .303 AVG/.367 OBP/.589 SLG / .956 OPS which translated into 15 HR in 59 Games.  You also must remember Braun spent 59 Games in High-A ball prior to being called up to Double-A in 2006.

Gamel’s Line: .329 AVG / .395 OBP / .537 SLG / .932 OPS which translated into 19HR in 127 G.

It’s fairly clear that Mat Gamel is lagging behind Ryan Braun in the power department, but not that far. It would be wise to assume, that like Braun, Gamel would start 2009 out in Triple-A.

So Gamel’s Got The Stick, What’s Stopping Him From Being TEH AWESOME?!

Right now, it appears as though Hall will break camp with the starting third base gig.  The Brewers have a back-up plan in Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell, both of which are proven commodities. So how badly will Bill Hall have to shit the bed, and how great will Gamel have to be?

When Ryan Braun got called up, he was slugging at a .700 clip in AAA.  If Gamel does this, he’ll get called up regardless of whether or not Hall finds his stroke.  Realistically, Gamel won’t do this because he is not one of the chosen people. If Gamel can maintain his current production against Triple-A pitching, he should be fine. It’s generally said that Double-A, and your adjustment to Double-A, is the make or break portion of your MiLB career.

It would serve Mat Gamel well to cut down on his near 21% K rate, but a 10% BB rate helps the medicine go down a bit easier. When Gamel’s doubles power translate into big league home run power, he’ll be dangerous.

Bill James’ robot has Gamel coming in at 150 Games in the 2009 season, which seems a bit ridiculous. Here’s the full-line:

150 Games, 539 AB, 35Doubles, 18 HR, 87 R, 89RBI, .302 AVG, 8 SB. 23.6 K%, 8.8 BB% and an OBP of .364.

Bill James is a brighter man than I, but these numbers seem a bit ridiculous; especially when you consider his projection model has Bill Hall down for 418 AB.

The Defense, It’s Always the Defense.

Gamel’s defense is awful, and while he’s improving, it’s a stretch to say that he’ll develop into even a below average third baseman.

Every Article written on Gamel explains why his defense is awful:

Fangraphs: It’s Almost Gamel Time

Diamond Cutter: Gamel’s Scouting Report

Sportsbubbler: Gamel #3 Brewers Prospect

Minorleagueball: Gamel, Again.

Hardballtimes: Yah, It’s Bad

Conclusion:

If Gamel gets called up, he’ll play.  The Brewers won’t call him up simply to sit on the bench while he could be refining his glove-work in Triple-A.

The problem is whether or not Gamel will get the call.  At this point, there’s no way he could step into the starting third base role without massive improvements over the winter and first month or two of the MiLB season.

If someone goes down in the outfield, definitely pounce.

If you’re sitting around watching a Brewers game and Ryan Braun starts taking grounders at third again, definitely pounce.

I’m just not sure that Gamel gets reps at third even if Hall plays terribly.

I don’t think I’d draft Gamel, but I’d definitely be the first guy on a WW claim for him because as I said, if he gets the call — he’ll play.

Third Base

Bill Hall’s Toe Tag: How Did This Get So Long? Why Didn’t I Mention Mat Gamel?

The Steroid Era has skewed the common perception of the good ol’ ball-player forever. Anyone associated with baseball, whether it be a writer or a fan, is stuck in limbo. Stuck, waiting for a definitive answer that will never come.

A “Career Year” during the steroid era is now almost impossible to attribute to the values our society preaches: hard work, patience and perseverance. It may be laziness on behalf of the baseball fan to just assume that a player is guilty of taking performance enhancing drugs (PEDs); but the easiest answer is most often the correct answer.

Bill Hall - jodieandlarry.flickr

With that said, onto The Mess That Is Bill Hall’s Career:

RECENT INJURIES:

Considering Hall is fighting for his job tooth and nail, he probably didn’t want to start out 2009 with a torn right calf on the first day of camp. The initial reports out of Brewers’ camp figured upon a 4-6 week recovery period, which would probably keep Hall out of the opening day line-up and start him down in Triple-A for some seasoning. Recent reports are hinting that while the time-table remains the same, Hall is feeling quite optimistic about an early return and should resume hitting shortly.

POWER SURGE:

In 2006, Bill Hall hit 35 HR, Scored 101 Runs, Drove in 85 batters, stole 8 bases, and hit .270.  The numbers surrounding such a power surge, should be examined — So, we will.

It’s pretty clear that Hall’s power-surge had it’s gestation period during the 2005 season as he managed to slug at a .495 clip. With this number in mind, it’s not that radical to assume that he would follow it up with a career year of 35HR while slugging .553.  However, aside from these two years, there is nothing else in Bill Hall’s professional career that shows his ceiling  is anything more than slugging at a .450 mark.

So I’m quick to judge: Steroids, is the answer.

In 2007, Bill Hall signed a delicious 4-Year/24M dollar contract. The old way of thinking dictates that Hall, now financially sound for life, simply lost the desire to play baseball. Yet the steroid question looms: Did Bill Hall just make himself 24 Million Dollars by sticking a needle in his ass for a year and a half?

We’re not Baseball-Philosophers though, we only care about statistics.  So the next logical set of questions are:

1. If Bill Hall lost the desire to improve, has his pride suffered enough to warrant a comeback of sorts? or…
2. If Bill Hall used PEDs to improve his performance, has his pride or pocketbook suffered enough to warrant a return to his mischievous ways?

We’d be fooling ourselves if we believed that there weren’t undetectable PEDs available to any player that wanted them.  Even after A-Rod’s recent omission of  ” I attained steroids from a cousin in the Dominican, and I didn’t know what it was…” — I refuse to believe that ALL baseball players are idiots.  If someone wants to inject themselves with an undetectable steroid, they’ll find a way to make it happen.

What Does The Future Hold for Bill Hall?

Hall underwent LASIK surgery to improve his vision this off-season; which has the benefit of removing annoying-ass contacts from the equation, in addition to helping you see better — duh.  In sports like baseball, where a batter is turning his head quickly to adjust to the pitch or a fly-ball, LASIK has been shown to help.  There’s an article on Denard Span and his LASIK surgery here.

Whether or not this can help Bill Hall’s consistently ridiculous 25-30% K is debatable.  Even during Hall’s banner year of 2006, he struck out a third of the time while walking less than 10 percent of the time. The difference was power. Hall had never posted a SLG percentage of .550, and he certainly hadn’t come close to his isolated power statistic (ISO) of .283.

The power came from a drastic change in plate approach. Hall has maintained a relatively stable line-drive rate throughout his career, posting a high of 24% in 2005 and a low of 19.1% in his 2006 season. The change comes from the amount of fly-balls and ground balls Hall hit. More specifically, the ratio of Ground balls to Fly balls (GB/FB).  Prior to 2006, Bill Hall hit 1.15 (2004) to 1.20 (2005) ground balls for every fly ball.  In 2006, Hall almost completely reversed the percentages and hit .69 Ground balls for every Fly ball.

Combine these findings with Bill Hall’s ridiculous 19.4% HR / FB ratio in 2006, and we have an issue.  Hall’s HR/FB plummeted after the 2006 season and has since regressed to his career average of between 12-13 percent.

Bill Hall’s competition mainly comes from Mat Gamel, who’s an incredibly intriguing prospect at this point.  I must stress the word prospect, however.  Hall is going to have a repeat of last year’s terrible, inexplicable, .225 BA and sub-.300 OBP for Gamel to get a shot. Unless Gamel comes out and pulls a Ryan Braun, slugging AAA pitching at a .709 Clip for first couple months of the season.

In the end, you’re not going to have to pay that much to grab Bill Hall.  With last year’s production, I’d imagine he’d be heading for the last round of your draft. When you consider the hype that a “30-HR potential” prospect brings to the waiver-wire; Bill Hall might just be a steal. You’ll also know fairly quickly whether or not Hall will excel or flop, which leaves the door open for snagging that prospect who has “30-HR Potential” — It might just be Mat Gamel.

Realistically in deeper leagues, or leagues based in Milwaukee — You may want to avoid Hall.

Third Base

Andy LaRoche – Third Base (3B) – Pittsburgh Pirates

Whether or not this is the hype-machine or the post-hype machine is up for debate. The Manny Ramirez / Jason Bay trade brought Andy LaRoche along with Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen, and Brandon Moss to the Pirates.

LaRoche was once a top-tier prospect, a can’t miss prospect.  Almost every publication had LaRoche in their top-10 position players, if not overall.

Yet LaRoche is proving to be a AAAA player, and his stock has plummeted. Is Adam LaRoche worth the risk after batting a paltry .177 last year between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh.

Here come the stats:

Year	Team	G	AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2006	AA	62	230	9	42	46	6	0.309	15.10%	13.90%	0.419	0.483	0.901	0.174	0.328
2006	AAA	55	202	10	35	35	3	0.322	11.00%	15.80%	0.4	0.55	0.95	0.228	0.344
2007	AAA	73	265	18	55	48	2	0.309	12.80%	15.80%	0.399	0.589	0.987	0.279	0.312
2007	LAD	35	93	1	16	10	2	0.226	17.70%	25.80%	0.365	0.312	0.677	0.086	0.294
2008	AA	6	22	0	5	1	1	0.318	12.00%	27.30%	0.4	0.364	0.764	0.045	0.438
2008	AAA	39	123	5	35	28	2	0.293	23.10%	11.40%	0.452	0.439	0.891	0.146	0.298
2008	LAD.PIT	76	223	5	17	18	2	0.166	9.70%	16.60%	0.252	0.256	0.508	0.09	0.177

When you look at LaRoche’s minor league numbers you see a future All-Star, then he goes up to the big leagues and gets eaten alive which ends up effecting him negatively upon his return to the minors.

There’s no way to explain this other than LaRoche has been relying solely on his athletic ability, and using it to make up for  mistakes.  LaRoche is the type of player that can guess fastball, get a curve, react and drive the pitch.

When you get to the big leagues, this type of approach doesn’t work. Looking at LaRoche’s K% and BB% tells the story, and the easiest explanation seems to be a poor approach.

The first trip up to the big club in LA brought with it an increase in K% and BB%, which screams of a player emotionally overwhelmed by the switch. When LaRoche realized that hacking wasn’t the way to go, he started taking pitches.

In the 2008 Triple-A season, LaRoche did everything you’d expect a player to do after starting the year in the Minors.  He decased that 25 percent strike-out rate and increased his walk rate to a nutty 23% which lead to a .452 OBP.  Some may view this as a great thing but when a hitter loses his aggressiveness, he tends to fall apart when pressed.

His .439 SLG percentage was nowhere close to his previous Triple-A mark of .550 and .589.  LaRoche was a broken man, a patient broken man.  Rarely will I fault a hitter for being patient, but in LaRoche’s case his patience flew out the window when he was called up again.

What gives me the slightest bit of hope, is that an approach can be changed with work and time.  LaRoche doesn’t appear to be have a hole in his swing and the only thing that stands out is his stupid-silly ground ball rate.

There’s no reason why LaRoche wouldn’t have put in the work this off-season, and the only problem here is time.

Pittsburgh acquired former ROY Eric Hinske, who can play third in a pinch this off-season and waiting in the wings is Pedro Alvarez.  Pedro Alvarez is one hell of a prospect, and Keith Law has him third behind Vitters and Brett Wallace.

With the way Alvarez smashed NCAA pitching over the course of three years, I’d be surprised if he didn’t follow the Evan Longoria path to excellence. There’s no particular reason other than financial that Alvarez wouldn’t get a shot at a September Call-Up.  I really can’t see Alvarez in the minors for more than a year, year and a half.

So, LaRoche’s got a year to prove himself.  I think he gets it done.

Verdict: Feed the post-hype? machine.  You really shouldn’t have to invest that much into LaRoche, and he’s definitely worth the gamble.  His ceiling is limited by the offense he plays in, but playing with his brother should help ease the burden of being a top-prospect.

Photo Courtesy of Matt Bandi Flickr