The New York Times reports that Manny Ramirez has retired from baseball rather than facing his impending 100 game suspension for violating MLB’s performance enhancing drug policy.

In a news release, the commissioner’s office said it had recently notified Ramirez “of an issue under Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program.”

The statement added, “Rather than continue with the process under the Program, Ramirez has informed M.L.B. that he is retiring as an active player.”

The options are pretty interesting for deep-leaguers. The Rays called up Casey Kotchman who I’ve got a great feeling about. If Kotchman hits the ground running, there’s a great chance that he steals ABs from Johnson in the long-term. In the short-term, Kotchman will get the first basemen’s gig with Johnson moving to DH, but there’s a strong likelihood of Johnson returning to first base when the Rays want to shift anyone else to DH.

The Rays still have too many useful players for too few spots but Kotchman provides an interesting option. Kotchman’s shown himself capable of posting good OBP-rates thanks to a solid BB:K rate over his career. Kotchman was an awful option last year in Seattle, but he’s still just 28-years old.

The power has yet to develop as expected and almost certainly never will, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him return to an ISO reminiscent of his Anaheim days. The Rays aren’t packing quite the punch they used to, but the Trop should treat Kotchman well.

When Longoria gets healthy, Sean Rodriguez should return to second base with Zobrist heading back out to the field. This leaves Kotchman, Joyce, Fuld, Lopez, Elliot Johnson splitting time between one roster spot until Desmond Jennings gets the call.

The biggest winner here is probably Matt Joyce, but I’m not going to overlook what Casey Kotchman could potentially bring to the table. I’m not going to predict that Kotchman fills in well, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see him put up useful numbers until the Super-2 deadline passes and Desmond Jennings gets the call…

This isn’t exactly post-grad math or a groundbreaking thesis, I just really like Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez appears to have second-base locked up and I’m banking on him nabbing at least 450-500 AB in 2011. Jason Barlett’s gone and until Tampa brought in Damon and Manny, Rodriguez had probably secured himself everyday ABs. Still, knowing Manny and Damon, there’s going to be a place for Rodriguez in most of the games.

I think it’s fair to say that Manny will play no more than five games in the field and make at least a couple trips to the DL. With that in mind, Matt Joyce will probably get his fair share of ABs bouncing around the OF. When Joyce or Desmond Jennings plays, Ben Zobrist will probably end up playing a fair bit of second base and potentially a lot of first base if Dan Johnson stumbles. The Rays seem pleased enough with Johnson, but Joe Maddon loves flexibility and that translates into fantasy conundrums. Within that mess, there’s the potential that Sean Rodriguez sees enough ABs to justify a roster-spot.

For a second basemen, Sean Rodriguez has quite a bit of pop. Last year’s 0.146 Isolated Power was slightly lower than you’d expect given Rodriguez’s minor-league track record. Rodriguez should sit somewhere in the .160-.170 ISO area with a BB:K of 0.30 rather than last year’s 0.22 mark.

Rodriguez still has room for improvement and his approach at the plate is still pretty raw ( 30% O-Swing, 70% Contact Rate, 12.5% SwStr) but he’s only 25-years old and can absolutely punish the straight-stuff. How Rodriguez deals with the breaking stuff in 2011 will largely determine his overall value.

In deeper leagues, Rodriguez is a must. In shallower leagues, Rodriguez makes one of the best flyers out there. Rodriguez should lock down at least 15 SB, 15HR, a .255-.260ish AVG, and decent but not stellar Runs and RBI depending on where he hits. The Rays should score a fairly often in 2011 considering the addition of Damon and Manny along with the standard progression you’d expect from what seems like an eternally young line-up. Believe it or not, B.J. Upton’s still only 26-years old and still has room for improvement.

All sorts of potential here and a 20/20 season definitely isn’t out of the question if Rodriguez gets close to 600ish AB.

David Price’s final-line might not be something to write home about; it seemed like just another quality start.  It was against the Yankees, but 3 ER and a 1.30 WHIP over 7 and 2/3 isn’t a spectacular performance even with 7 strikeouts.

However, if you lop off the eighth inning when Price was noticeably fatigued, you’ve got yourself something to write home about:  7IP, 5 Hits, 2BB, 2 ER and 7 Strike-Outs.

Price has never been one to shy away from a challenge and his velocity surely reflected his eagerness coming into the Yankees game.  Early in the game, Price’s fastball was jumping out of his hand, hitting between 96 and 97mph during the first 50 pitches of the game.  Price then settled in and worked around 95mph for the remainder of the game until the final inning.

Price worked with a pitch distribution similar to previous years, but both fastballs had a noticeable velocity spike.  Price’s fastball velocity was reminiscent of his playoff dominance of two years ago when he acted primarily as a reliever.   Rather than the 93mph 4-seam and 88mph 2-seam of 2009, Price was dealing 95 and 91 mph heat, respectively.

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Using the data from Brooks Baseball, it’s clear to see the contrast between David Price’s velocity during his last start of 2009 and his first start of 2010, both against the Bronx Bombers.

Furthermore, the movement of all Price’s pitches seems to have taken a leap forward.  Price had everything working last night and Joe Girardi wasn’t hesitant to praise Price’s curveball:  “He threw the ball extremely well, his command of his fastball was really good and his curveball was excellent.”

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The colored dots represent Price’s start last night, while the cubes represent his last start of 2009.  As you can see, other than the superior grouping of off-speed pitches that allowed MLB Game Day to differentiate between his slider and curveball, Price was simply getting more movement.

The slider (orange) is getting slightly more movement on the horizontal plane, but the vertical dip has suffered a little bit.  Price will still be sitting around his standard 4ish range on the Y-Axis, which isn’t concerning.

Price’s 4-seamer has straightened out a bit, and there’s a bit of an anomaly to the left.  Without looking at the contrasting velocity charts, I’m sure it’s just a matter of him ramping it up from time to time.

Essentially, Price is throwing harder and throwing independent sliders and curves rather than just working with a “slurve.”

When I see numbers like this, I can’t in my right mind say anything other than, “Buy, Buy, Buy!”

Evan Longoria is currently destroying Major League pitching and justifying his second round draft selection to the tune of .358 AVG/.408 OBP/.706 SLG. Longoria’s already knocked out eight home-runs and is the league leader in runs batted in with 35.

Longoria’s proving me quite wrong, considering I claimed he was nowhere near worthy of a second round draft selection. I have little doubt in my mind that Evan Longoria will be a perennial all-star selection, but I didn’t think he’d achieve MVP-type numbers quite this soon.

However, I wouldn’t be too quick to peg Evan Longoria as first round value quite yet, and I still tend believe he finishes somewhere in the late-20′s when all is said and done.

The Evan Longoria Question is, Why Are Pitchers Still Throwing Him Strikes?

Carlos Pena, the league leader in home runs, bats behind him is the simple answer but stay with me for a second.

Longoria’s has always had passable plate discipline given his power. In his first full season, Longoria whiffed 27% of the time compared to walking 9% of the time. Pitchers continued to pound the zone at a league average clip against Longoria, largely due to his below league average contact-rate.

Organized by slugging percentage, here’s a quick look at the league leaders thus far (stats are as of Thursday May 7th, when I started this Article):

I understand that this is a lot to digest, but it gives a much clearer picture of Longoria as a hitter. I’ve bolded the statistics that fall noticeably below the league average in any given category (B/KK, Swing Percentage Outside the Zone, Swing Percentages Inside the Zone, Contact Outside the Zone, Contact Inside the Zone, and Zone Percentage [or percent of pitches inside the zone.])

Onto the Question: Why’s Longoria Getting So Many Pitches to Hit?

Of the elite hitters on this list, you’ve got to go all the way down to Adam Jones and Mike Cameron to find the other hot-hitting players that are seeing more pitches inside, rather than outside, of the zone. This obviously has quite a bit to do with line-up protection and for the most part it’s still pick your poison (Jones or Markakis, Braun or Cameron). If these players continue their hot hitting ways, you’d expect them to see less pitches inside the zone even if they’re protected by some of the most elite hitters in the game.

Longoria’s plate discipline statistics do not predict a dominant hitter. Longoria’s stats actually resemble a Russell Branyan-type hitter at this point. Their stats are eerily similar:

Branyan chases a few more pitches, but he also makes more contact. The only real difference here is that Longoria’s seeing 7% more pitches inside the strike-zone. Comparing Russell Branyan and Evan Longoria is terrifying, so I’ll never do it again, but how does Longoria react when pitchers start throwing him more borderline strikes?

Longoria’s plate discipline statistics may be skewed because he’s seeing the ball so well, and making damn-hard contact so often — but I’m still concerned.

Other players like Adam Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds fall into the trap of walking too little, swinging too much, and making poor contact on those swings. It’s obviously been working for them just as well as it has been for Longoria, but they’re all young players who are still getting a large percentage of pitches inside the zone.

If Longoria keeps up his sweet swinging ways, pitchers are going to have to start respecting him or challenging him. Carlos Pena continues to be among the league leaders in Home Runs, but at some point pitchers are going to have to risk walking Longoria in order to test his plate discipline. It’s a tricky situation as the Rays’ line-up has been terrific thus far and Upton still hasn’t even come close to hitting his stride.

Opposing pitchers will eventually catch onto Longoria’s lack of plate discipline, and it’ll be up to Longoria to adapt. I’m not predicting the end of the Longoria-Era by any stretch of the imagination. Ryan Howard has obviously shown that a player can still be successful only getting 40% of their pitches inside of the zone.

Keep in mind, we’re really only working off 30 games worth of 2009 statistics so there’s going to be a small sample size warning. With Longoria, it’s quite clear why almost everything is prefaced with a small sample size caveat — Check out the pitchers that he’s faced thus far:

This isn’t exactly murderers row, but you’ve got to give credit to Longoria for killing the pitchers that he should be killing. He hasn’t had much luck against solid pitchers, and has thus far managed to run into the tougher pitchers are opportune times. Catching the Yankees and the Red Sox early in the season when their pitching is a mess has helped Longoria and all of the Rays. A large portion of Longoria’s counting stats have come off none other than the Baltimore Orioles — it’ll be fun to watch him take on some of the stronger rotations.

To me, Longoria’s the epitome of a sell-high candidate. If you can get first round talent for him, I’m pulling the trigger pronto.

The Rays optioned David Price late last month, and the fantasy crowd lost their head.  Today, the Rays have shown that they’re actually brilliant wizards with mythical, magical, MYSTICAL! powers:

Tampa Bay Rays
Acquired Minor League RHP Aneury Rodriguez from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for RHP Jason Hammel.

One down, one to go!

Jeff Neimann, who seemed like he was heading for the bullpen now fills the 5th starter role.

I find it next to impossible to believe that the Rays will keep Price in the minors until the end of June, which they’d probably have to do if they wanted to delay his Free Agent year.  This isn’t exactly about money: Generally prospects are sent down to delay their arbitration year, but Price is already purchased for 6 years.  This is about the possibility of delaying Price from entering free agency a year early. That’s the 2012/2013 season, I believe.

Maybe the old Rays would keep Price down, but the new Rays just got to the World Series.  If things take a turn for the worst, I’d expect Price up pronto.  There will come a point where someone gets hurt, or Niemann sucks it up.  At that point, Price will get the call.

I’d say the odds of Price getting the call before the end of June, just doubled or tripled with the trade of Hammel.

By the way, RHP Aneury Rodriguez, is a solid power-pitching prospect who showed all around improvement last year with Modesto in A+.  He’s still only 21 years old, and while he shouldn’t be on your fantasy radar for another 2 or 3 years, it shows that the Rays didn’t just give Hammel away; which would have been the case if they’d optioned him or Neimann instead of Price.

Continuing the trend of answering random Google search queries that bring people to this site, I’ll now attempt to answer the question: Chris Davis vs. Carlos Pena.

Chris Davis and Carlos Pena really aren’t that different.  In 1998, the Texas Rangers made Carlos Pena the 10th overall pick.  Skip ahead 8 years to 2006 and the Rangers select Chris Davis in round 5.

Pena’s enjoyed a roller-coaster career, ranking as high as the fifth overall prospect by Baseball America in 2002. That same year he began his free-fall, as he hit .218 for the Athletics before they shipped him off to the Tigers.  Thus began Carlos Pena’s jet-setting ways, where in 2007 he landed in his 6th city, Tampa Bay.

Chris Davis has been on the fast track to the bigs after being drafted out of Navarro Junior College. Davis has been ranked as high as Texas’ second overall prospect, and the 65th overall prospect in all of baseball.

Both Davis and Pena started their careers as 20-year olds who smashed minor league pitching, but lacked contact skills. Davis possessed a higher slugging percentage while Pena had an incredibly superior walk-rate.

We’re not comparing Davis and Pena as 20-year olds though, we’re comparing 23-year old Christopher Davis with nearly 31-year old Carlos Pena.

The Art Of Hitting: Batting Average And On-Base-Percentage

Some things never change though:  Christopher Davis has made a habit of striking out too much and is predicted to strike-out around 30 percent of the time in 2008.  Carlos Pena, strangely enough is also predicted to strike-out, you guessed it: 30 percent of the time.

Comparing Carlos Pena and Chris Davis ends up being pretty interesting because of this. Christopher Davis is predicted to walk about 7 percent of the time and post a .25-.30 BB:K ratio in 2009. Regardless of his lack of plate discipline, he should have a superior batting average to Carlos Pena.   Pena, who has at least a respectable 15% BB-Rate, will end up batting almost 25 points less then Davis.  Obviously, if you’re in an OBP league rather than an AVG league things change.

According to MARCEL, Davis’ .288 batting average becomes a .345 OBP and Pena’s .261 average becomes a .379 OBP. Keep in mind, Pena does have the potential to post a respectable batting average, as seen by the .282 he posted in 2007.

The Art Of Smash-Killing Home Runs

The variance in Davis’ projections is ridiculous; he’s predicted to hit between 16 and 40 HR which puts him somewhere between waiver-wire bait, and second round pick.  While the computers disagree on how many HR he’ll hit, they’re all pretty certain he’ll continue his smash-killing ways with a SLG of over .500 and an ISO of about .230.

Carlos Pena on the other hand is projected by all but one computer to hit 31 HR.  Oliver, the odd projection system out, predicts a mind-boggling 32 HR. Yet I still can’t help but recall Pena’s 46 HR 2007 season.

Odds are this is going to be pretty close to a wash.  Chris Davis could well blow up and hit 36 HR, but that’s probably only going to best Carlos Pena by five or so HR.

If pitchers adapt to Davis’ free-swinging ways though, he could be on his way to becoming the next Carlos Pena.

The Art of Knockin’ ‘em in, and Scoring ‘em Yourself.

I never bet against the Ball Park in Arlington when it comes to counting stats.  Even marginal players start posting ridiculous totals when they play in Texas.  Josh Hamilton, Micheal Young and Ian Kinsler are the only givens, but Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Elvis Andrus, Hank Blalock and the combination of Salty/Teagarden add a lot of intrigue to this lineup.

Christopher Davis has a very legitimate shot at posting at least 100 of both runs batted in, and runs scored.

Carlos Pena on the other hand should sit fairly comfortably in the middle of a young and talented Tampa Bay Rays line-up.  With the addition of Burrell, Pena’s runs scored should also improve. It once again comes down to which version of Carlos Pena we’ll get though.  The 2007 version hit for a solid average, got on base, and in turn scored almost 100 runs while driving in 121. In 2008 he remained a solid run producer, driving in 102 but his runs scored fell off drastically to 76.  With Burrell and Joyce added to the equation, you’d have to expect a return to the 90-100 Runs scored region.

The Art of the Stolen Base

Neither Davis nor Pena will steal enough bases to warrant any added value.

The Conclusion:

Davis is coming off the board at 65th overall, which is essentially a round before Pena at 77th overall. Realistically, this is probably due to Davis’ multi-position eligibility and the perceived value of third base eligibility.

I’m honestly worried about both of these two though.  Davis’ lack of plate discipline could spell disaster if pitchers ever adapt to his incredible power and Pena’s lack of consistency was showcased last year.

Both of these sluggers are coming off the board fairly early considering the talent that’s around them, and I’ll be implimenting draft and trade strategies with both of them.

There’s really no clear cut winner in this competition.  Davis’ average notches him ahead of Pena, but the risk of immense failure negates this advantage.

In shallow leagues, it pays to take extremely large risks because you could fill Davis’ spot with a solid but not spectacular third basemen, should Davis fall flat on his face.

In deeper leagues, I’d wait the 30 picks and take a safe bet like Garrett Atkins who has most of the potential, but not nearly the risk.

Unfortunately Pena belongs to a large group of first basemen with  some variety of risk.  You can’t just wait a while and take the safe pick, so you’re going to have to pick what type of risk you want to incur: Votto’s inexperience, Delgado’s age, LaRoche’s slow-stars, or Conor Jackson’s lack of power.

I’d have to go with 10 teams and under, pick Chris Davis.  14 Teams and over is Carlos Pena Time.

…and this is why it’s important to know who’s out of options on any given team. David Price, last year’s play-off hero and this year’s fantasy wet-dream, has been sent down.

Maybe it’s because Price’s change-up needs work, or maybe it’s due to his grand total of 19 professional starts. What makes the most sense is that Jeff Niemann and Jason Hammel are out of options.

If you option Niemann or Hammel to the minors, they’re gone faster than David Price’s fast-ball. There’s maybe 5 teams that wouldn’t be able to roster either of those two.

Optioning Price to the minors at the very least, buys the Rays time.  It buys them time for a trade, and it buys them time for an injury.  Injuries happen, and it’s not like Scott Kazmir is the picture of health. Niemann, who’s almost twice times the size of Kazmir, is an injury waiting to happen as well.

Price will be back up, it’s just a matter of time.

Analysis Time:

David Price:

In the short term, Price’s value goes down.  I have trouble believing that Price is in the Minors for more than a month unless he experiences some growing pains. I understand the Rays’ concern with Price, as a full major league season may just be too much, too soon.

Did anyone think that Price would get to 200 IP? It was tantalizing to look at his stats and adjust them for 200IP, but did you really think it was going to happen?

Price doesn’t need to work on his change-up, or his make-up.  He just needs to pitch professionally. Price needs to learn how to limit his pitches, as many strike-out pitchers often need to learn.  While it’s nice to notch a strike-out per inning, it’s going to take a minimum 5 or 6 pitches per strike-out.  Price can save himself quite a few pitches by throwing his ridiculous fastball-slider combo in *hittable* but not *crushable* locations.  Use your infield young man.

I’ll still stick with 140-150 IP for Price.

Niemann and Hammel:

Niemann has the upside and the downside. He was drafted 4th overall out of Rice in the 2004 first year player draft.  He hasn’t lived up to the hype, as his career has been side-tracked by injuries almost yearly. Niemann’s got the stuff, and has been improving throughout Spring Training.

Niemann may become rosterable at some point, for a 3 or 4 starts at a time.  That’s if he manages to snag the job away from Hammel.

Hammel’s boring, and while he’s a good pitcher that any team could use — he’s not a fantasy pitcher.  He’s got a solid arsenal, and he knows how to use it, but he’ll always be average.  Unless you’re in New York, Boston, or Chicago, fifth starters are normally below average, obviously.

Even if Hammel snags the starting gig, and puts up 2 or 3 great starts; I wouldn’t roster him.  Average players put up average stats in most cases. Great stats become average stats by adding, you guessed it, awful stats.

Conclusion

Some people may assume Price will be kept down for a while, I disagree.  The Rays have so much pitching depth, talented pitching depth, in their minor league system that Hammel is really only needed for a year.

With the NCAA tournament going on, and Michigan State doing their thing; I can’t help but be reminded of Tom Izzo’s use of Morris Peterson.  Peterson was obviously the best player on that MSU squad, but he didn’t start.  Mateen Cleaves and Charlie Bell would do their thing, and when you needed a shot in the arm – BAM! – In comes Mo-Pete, and boy did it work.

Was that really 9 years ago?

If the Rays start out slow, which is a definite possibility, they’ve got their shot in the arm.

Price is just an injury or a trade away and if the Rays are going to option either Niemann or Hammel, they’re going to do it as early as possible.  If Niemann starts slowly, and is essentially useless, the Rays are going to want to force the hand of whomever nabs him off waivers. A lot of teams will want Niemann on their roster, but whether or not they can keep him on the roster the entire year is a different story.

The Rays are in a Win – Win.  If Hammel and Niemann play well, they’ve increased their stock and should be able to shop them fairly easily.  If they play terribly, they’ll probably return to Tampa at some point during the year.

There’s probably a 75 percent shot that Price returns due to an injury, and a 20 percent shot of a return due to trade.  Throw in another 5 percent shot of either Hammel or Niemann going on waivers, and we’re good to go.

It’s almost opening day, and it’s about time to look at some roster-fillers in moderately deep leagues. I’ve always been hesitant to blabber on about early round draft picks, because for the most part you’re not going to win or lose the draft in the first 10-rounds, unless your competition is a group of no-nothing idiots.

Matt Joyce

Joyce was acquired by the Rays late last year for Edwin Jackson, in what was widely heralded as a brilliant move for the Rays. The Rays, who are stuffed full of nutritiously delicious starting pitcher depth, magically turned a 2009-arbitration eligible starting pitcher  into a power hitting right fielder with a cheap price-tag for 2 more years.

Unfortunately for the Rays, Matt Joyce has been battling a mysterious calf strain.  The MRI’s have shown it to just be a strain, but it has plagued him essentially the whole of spring training. Joyce finally did pitch hit and DH against the Yankees on Sunday, the 22nd.

Joyce was originally slated to be the Rays starting right fielder, giving the Rays one of the better defensive outfields in the game.  At this point, after missing all of camp, it’ll be interesting to see what the Rays do.  Almost all of the media outlets are reporting that there’s a better than average shot that Joyce doesn’t even start the year in the Bigs.

While I understand Joyce is a young kid who needs all the seasoning he can get, he’s still a better option in right field than anyone the Rays can throw out there. Even if we assume Joyce doesn’t play for a month, or is limited to platoon duty — what should be expected?

1. Hits Righties
2. Good Power
3. Low Average
4. Lots of Strike-outs
5. Lots of Walks
6. Very Solid Defense

We’re basically looking at a guy, like Adam Dunn, who possesses less fantasy value than real world value (assuming your league doesn’t use OBP or award points for BBs).

It’s going to be tough to project Joyce’s batting average this year. While he did hit a very solid .270 in triple-A before the call-up, which he followed up with a .252 AVG in Detroit; We may have a player who hits for somewhere between .220 and .240.

It’s somewhat painful projecting an optimistic-ceiling for Joyce’s batting average at .270, but it’s gotta be done.

Joyce should come in somewhere in the low-.250′s, if he’s played substantially from each side of the plate.  If Joyce is limited to platoon duty, he may emerge as a Jayson Werth-lite, posting somewhere in the neighborhood of .270ish with power.

Joyce’s consistent walk rate of 10+ percent, doesn’t negate his striking out over a quarter of the time, but it helps. If Joyce can float somewhere in the .50 BB to K rate, he’ll provide useful pop to the back-end of your fantasy line-up.

With the front of the Rays line-up solidified, it looks as though Joyce will be manning the 6 or 7th spot behind Iwamura, Crawford, Upton, Longoria, Pena and Burrell. You shouldn’t be fooled by Pena and Burrell’s low averages, as their high-OBP (both are projected above .375-OBP) will produce ample RBI opportunities for the power-hitting Joyce.

Even if Joyce bats at the tail end of the Rays line-up, he’s still in position to knock in his fair share with Barlett and Navarro manning the other two spots.  The depth in Tampa renders Joyce’s position in the batting order negligible when determining his fantasy value.  Joyce’s solid ~.35oOBP should also keep him on-base enough to score his fair share.

Assuming Joyce gets healthy, and nabs the starting gig no more than a month into the season — What should we expect?

65 to 70 of both Runs and RBIs should be in the cards, to go along with 20-25 HR power. The majority of the statistical models project Joyce below the 20-HR mark for the upcoming 2009 season, but I couldn’t disagree more.  The only thing keeping Joyce from hitting ‘taters is his playing time.  If he gets 460, or 451 AB as predicted by Zips and Oliver respectively, he’ll smash-kill the ball.

Whether or not a final line of 22HR, 68 RBI, 70 R, .245 AVG and 2 SB is useful, really depends on your league.

If it isn’t, I can guarentee you that there will at least be a few hot-streaks where Joyce is rosterable even in the shallowest leagues.  Of course a great month doesn’t make a great season.

Keep an eye out for Joyce, as Gross and Zobrist can only man that RF spot for so long.  If Joyce continues to be plagued by this injury, we’ve got a problem.  All the signs were there, and technically still are there, for a hidden gem but nothing kills a fantasy sleeper like missing Spring Training.

Assume Joyce goes for 16HR/60R/60RBI/.250 if he stays in that platoon for too long, and lower it further if his injury really lingers.  One bright spot, if you can call it that, is Joyce’s average will improve the more he’s platooned (to a ceiling of about .260 – .270, let’s not go crazy here).

The hype-machine would like to welcome your reigning American League Rookie of the Year and member of the American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays, Sir Evan Longoria.

Longoria seems to have his head on right, and is definitely one of the nicer guys around the league.  Always taking time to chat with fans, sign autographs, and generally remain in high spirits.  There is however, a whole lot of weight on his shoulders this year.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Longoria and the Rays to repeat their unbelievable, unexpected, unpredicted, unprecedented success in 2008.

The question is: Will They Live Up To The Hype
As a Reference Point, here’s our Evan Longoria Fantasy Stat Index

Longoria has been on the fast track to the big leagues since he was drafted 3rd overall way back in the year 2006.  Longoria was generally considered the best hitter of the bunch and the scouts raved about how quick his hands were.

After last years’ rookie of the year campaign, it appears as though nothing has changed.  Longoria is still very quick through the zone, and has the ability to adjust quickly.

The question fantasy owners want answered is whether or not Evan Longoria will IMPROVE upon last years’ numbers. The odd thing about fantasy drafts is that young players are always projected to improve in the eyes of fantasy owners, while projection models almost always predict a slight regression in the non-counting stats.

The first thing required to guestimate the chance of improvement is Longoria’s ABs.  Longoria started out 2008 in AAA, and after posting mediocre numbers, he got the call.  Some wonder why the Rays even bothered to send him down for 25 AB, but to each his own.

Longoria logged 448 at-bats in 2008, and missed games due to his minor league stint and late season injuries. Longoria broke his left wrist during the dog-days of August, but made it back for the playoffs where everything seemed fine.

Bill James’ Projection Model comes the closest to predicting a full-season for Longoria, at 599AB.  As there appeared to be no lasting effects from the wrist injury, there’s no reason to assume that Longoria won’t play a full season. BJ’s robot also predicts a slight increase in batting average, which brings us to this stat line: 37HR/102R/116RBI/9SB/.280 average.

This is bringing us awful close to David Wright territory (32HR, 112R,119RBI,17SB, .309AVG) and it’s definitely putting Longoria somewhere between tier-1 and tier-2.  A-Rod’s injury currently leaves tier-1 with a single occupant, David Wright. Longoria’s projected line bests Aramis Ramirez’s, and with Chipper’s injury concerns – Is Longoria the second best 3rd Basemen out there?

What’s Keeping Longoria From Being Great

Of the ELITE third basemen (Rodriguez, Wright, Chipper, Ramirez and Longoria,) Longoria stood out in a couple categories, bad categories; strike-out and walk percentage, which we’ll combine into BB:K.

O-SW is O-Swing, or Swing Percentage Outside the zone.  Z-SW is swings within the zone, and SW is total Swing percentage.  CON is contact percentage, with the same sub-categories.

So here’s our problem: Longoria walks the least and strikes-out the most, giving him a tolerable but not preferable BB/K ratio. Normally we see these numbers with pure power hitters rather than someone who projects more in the David Wright mold.

Longoria also swings the most often at pitches outside the zone, and swings the least at pitches inside the zone.  His low Z-Swing percentage artificially lowers his actual Swing percentage.    When it comes to plate discipline, we’re talking more Aramis Ramirez than David Wright or Chipper Jones.

Considering Longoria has the “worst” eye of the bunch, you’d assume he’d make up for it with his quick wrists but his contact rate floats around Alex Rodriguez who’s far more of a pure power hitter.

I’m hesitant to overly criticize Longoria because different players make different approaches work, and a year from now maybe we’ll be comparing the freshest face with Longoria’s approach.  However, these numbers are troublesome until we actually know what Longoria is: a pure-power hitter, a doubles-machine that hits 35HR a year, or a patient hitter that capitalizes on mistakes.

The good news is that we should expect improvement in all of these fields as Longoria gains experience and matures as a hitter. The bad news is that if Longoria hasn’t made strides during the off-season to curb these bad habits, pitchers will adapt.  This is why so many talented rookies experience the dreaded sophomore slump.

Conclusion:

According to ESPN, Evan Longoria is coming off the board as the second third basemen drafted but he’s nearly 21 positions below David Wright who averages the 4th overall draft spot, or the third player chosen. Overall this puts Longoria somewhere in the neighborhood of Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday.

It’s tough to price Longoria out at this spot, as both Holliday and Beltran run and Fielder plays first base. Alex Rodriguez is going off the board in around the same spot but with his recent injury woes, we can’t exactly judge Longoria against A-Rod either.

However, it’s fairly clear that Longoria’s draft spot reflects a common view that not only will Longoria will play a full season, he’ll also improve.  This is not a stance I’d be willing to take, so long as you can get Youkilis 10 picks later, Ramirez 16 Picks later, and Chipper Jones nearly 30 picks later.  After the elite players there’s a plethora of high-risk / high-reward players that run almost 25 deep.

Evan Longoria has a decent shot of meeting these lofty expectations, but I can’t recommend buying into the hype.  As with any young player, there are going to be some ups and downs and the Tampa Bay Rays will undoubtedly come back down to earth which’ll lower Longoria’s Rib-Eyes and Runs.

If Longoria stole 20 Bases, or hit .300, both of which he theoretically COULD do — it’d be a different ball-game.  But as a .280 hitter that doesn’t run that much, 25th overall or the end of the second round is just too high.

Instead, take a risk on Edwin Encarnacion or Chris Davis that could realistically put up very similar numbers at a much cheaper price. Davis does however suffer from all of the strike-out, contact, and plate discipline problems that may plague Longoria.

Photo's Courtesy Of Keith Allison - Flickr

As a native Torontonian and a Blue Jays season ticket holder, I get to behold the beauty that is the Yankees vs. Red Sox reloading period known as Free Agency.  People look at the Yankees and Red Sox as fantasy goldmines but with the recent reloading of their pitching staffs, combined with the maturation of the Rays; I’m curious as to how the rest of the AL EAST will fair.

How will the Orioles and Blue Jays offenses, and to a lesser extent the Yankees, Sox and Rays fair against pitching staff’s consisting of 4 and sometimes 5, potential aces. Unfortunately, it doesn’t end with the starting pitching as the bullpen’s in the AL East are also some of the best in the MLB.

Even in 2008, the numbers were:

BLUE JAYS

LOST: McGowan (Injury), Marcum (Injury), John Parrish, A.J Burnett. GAINED: Brian Burress, Mike Maroth, Matt Clement, Bryan Bullington,

RAYS

LOST: Edwin Jackson and Trever Miller. GAINED: Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier, Brian Shouse

YANKEES

LOST: Muissina (Retirement), Pavano, Ponson GAINED: Sabathia, Burnett

REDSOX

LOST: Timlin, Byrd, Schilling, Aardsma, Smoltz (Injury) GAINED: Tazawa (Japan), Ramon Ramirez, Penny, Smoltz, Saito

ORIOLES

LOST: Burress, Cabrera, Olson, Cormier GAINED: Uehara (Japan), Hendrickson, Rich Hill, David Pauley, Brad Hennessey, John Parrish

Onto the point young man, get to the point!

Blue Jays and Orioles hitters are going to be facing the Rays, Sox, and Yankees 18-19 times each. Which means they’ll be facing an above average cast of stars, a third of their season which doesn’t include anyone outside their division or Jeremy Guthrie, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, etc. etc.

BJ: Bill James Projection Model CH: Chone Projection Model when there was no BJ Data.

An Example:

Nick Markakis is one of the best young outfielders in the league, and most people have him improving upon his 20HR in 2008, and 23HR in 2007.  Some think this is a stretch, but it’s the prevailing thought.

Markakis will be facing Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Petitte, Chamberlain, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Penny, Smoltz/Buchholz, Wakefield, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine, Halladay and McGowan with the possibility of Hughes being thrown in there.

Sonnanstine, Penny, Wakefield, and McGowan come in as average players with the possibility of sub-4.00 ERAs.

The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays all have stellar bullpens as well.

The question is whether or not Markakis projections should be adjusted based on the level of competition?

A Non-Math Conclusion — For Now.

As much as I’d like to assume that somehow, someway, the AL EAST pitching will be no better or no worse than it normally is, or the rest of the schedule will even everything out — I CANT! The talent either came from the NL, or within the AL EAST.

Thankfully, other than Alex Rios and Vernon Wells the Blue Jays really do not have any notable offensive fantasy contributors.

The Orioles on the other hand are filled with players that could potentially be effected by not only the front five, but also the depth of the Sox and Yankees. Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Matt Wieters, and Brian Roberts are all going fairly high in 2009. Felix Pie, Adam Jones, Ty Wigginton and Melvin Mora are also on many people’s sleeper lists.

I’m not sure how this will play out, but with so much talent bunched at the top — I’m going to downgrade players on the Orioles and Blue Jays.

Players on the Rays, Yankees and BoSox should roughly stay the same as the O’s and J’s are a mess up front.

If you have the slightest clue as to how this will actually play-out, feel free to comment. For the time-being, I’ll attempt to put together some variety of maths to explain what a reasonable prediction would be a possible unexpected drop in production.

photo courtesy of keith allison flickr