Tampa Bay Rays
About Evan Longoria: Selling High and Throwing Strikes.
May 10, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
Evan Longoria is currently destroying Major League pitching and justifying his second round draft selection to the tune of .358 AVG/.408 OBP/.706 SLG. Longoria’s already knocked out eight home-runs and is the league leader in runs batted in with 35.
Longoria’s proving me quite wrong, considering I claimed he was nowhere near worthy of a second round draft selection. I have little doubt in my mind that Evan Longoria will be a perennial all-star selection, but I didn’t think he’d achieve MVP-type numbers quite this soon.
However, I wouldn’t be too quick to peg Evan Longoria as first round value quite yet, and I still tend believe he finishes somewhere in the late-20’s when all is said and done.
The Evan Longoria Question is, Why Are Pitchers Still Throwing Him Strikes?
Carlos Pena, the league leader in home runs, bats behind him is the simple answer but stay with me for a second.
Longoria’s has always had passable plate discipline given his power. In his first full season, Longoria whiffed 27% of the time compared to walking 9% of the time. Pitchers continued to pound the zone at a league average clip against Longoria, largely due to his below league average contact-rate.
Organized by slugging percentage, here’s a quick look at the league leaders thus far (stats are as of Thursday May 7th, when I started this Article):
| SWING % | Contact % | ||||||||||
| Name | BB% | K% | BB/K | SLG | Out | Zone | Total | Out | Zone | Total | Zone% |
| Albert Pujols | 16.1% | 9.1% | 2.11 | 0.747 | 21.9% | 73.5% | 43.7% | 85.2% | 91.7% | 89.8% | 42.3% |
| Kevin Youkilis | 15.2% | 20.2% | 0.89 | 0.719 | 17.1% | 62.1% | 38.5% | 61.5% | 88.3% | 82.0% | 47.5% |
| Evan Longoria | 7.6% | 23.9% | 0.35 | 0.706 | 29.4% | 68.4% | 49.3% | 53.1% | 78.2% | 70.9% | 51.1% |
| Raul Ibanez | 10.1% | 17.3% | 0.65 | 0.694 | 21.1% | 59.9% | 39.9% | 51.2% | 89.0% | 78.7% | 48.4% |
| Jorge Cantu | 9.2% | 14.6% | 0.69 | 0.685 | 31.1% | 67.4% | 46.2% | 67.2% | 89.9% | 81.0% | 41.6% |
| Carlos Pena | 13.9% | 33.3% | 0.49 | 0.676 | 18.2% | 71.6% | 43.9% | 53.3% | 74.4% | 69.9% | 48.1% |
| Russell Branyan | 8.9% | 25.6% | 0.38 | 0.659 | 32.5% | 73.8% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 86.4% | 74.0% | 43.4% |
| Miguel Cabrera | 11.1% | 14.6% | 0.86 | 0.656 | 29.0% | 73.1% | 50.0% | 60.4% | 90.2% | 81.1% | 47.7% |
| Victor Martinez | 12.4% | 8.0% | 1.78 | 0.655 | 19.1% | 58.6% | 38.4% | 78.4% | 92.0% | 88.6% | 49.0% |
| Torii Hunter | 9.5% | 13.7% | 0.77 | 0.653 | 30.2% | 73.5% | 49.6% | 66.7% | 91.6% | 83.2% | 44.9% |
| Ian Kinsler | 7.2% | 19.0% | 0.41 | 0.647 | 26.8% | 75.7% | 50.0% | 67.7% | 87.9% | 82.2% | 47.5% |
| Chase Utley | 17.3% | 13.6% | 1.55 | 0.642 | 17.7% | 55.3% | 35.3% | 58.3% | 89.0% | 80.9% | 47.0% |
| Manny Ramirez | 22.0% | 18.5% | 1.53 | 0.641 | 16.9% | 68.8% | 40.5% | 75.6% | 86.3% | 83.9% | 45.5% |
| Nick Swisher | 17.3% | 27.9% | 0.75 | 0.64 | 17.1% | 53.5% | 34.2% | 66.7% | 79.6% | 76.2% | 47.0% |
| Jason Bay | 23.7% | 27.8% | 1.12 | 0.622 | 13.7% | 60.2% | 35.0% | 44.4% | 82.7% | 74.6% | 45.8% |
| Adam Jones | 8.8% | 18.4% | 0.53 | 0.621 | 27.8% | 69.2% | 48.6% | 51.7% | 83.6% | 74.5% | 50.2% |
| Brandon Inge | 14.7% | 24.1% | 0.71 | 0.609 | 19.6% | 57.8% | 37.8% | 58.1% | 80.0% | 74.1% | 47.6% |
| Adrian Gonzalez | 14.3% | 28.4% | 0.59 | 0.608 | 26.6% | 77.2% | 50.7% | 52.4% | 78.9% | 71.6% | 47.6% |
| Michael Young | 6.6% | 19.3% | 0.36 | 0.605 | 26.4% | 70.0% | 48.1% | 51.8% | 85.7% | 76.4% | 49.8% |
| Mike Cameron | 14.4% | 18.9% | 0.89 | 0.6 | 11.2% | 65.0% | 39.8% | 70.0% | 87.1% | 84.9% | 53.1% |
| Nick Markakis | 13.0% | 13.1% | 1.14 | 0.598 | 21.9% | 60.1% | 40.0% | 75.9% | 89.5% | 85.6% | 47.3% |
| Adam Lind | 12.1% | 19.8% | 0.7 | 0.586 | 25.7% | 59.8% | 41.1% | 69.3% | 90.2% | 83.0% | 45.0% |
| Jorge Posada | 13.5% | 24.7% | 0.63 | 0.584 | 20.2% | 61.9% | 40.2% | 57.1% | 90.9% | 82.1% | 48.1% |
| Carlos Beltran | 15.5% | 18.4% | 1 | 0.582 | 20.9% | 69.1% | 43.0% | 79.1% | 91.7% | 88.4% | 45.9% |
| Brad Hawpe | 14.0% | 14.9% | 1.09 | 0.581 | 20.8% | 66.1% | 42.4% | 57.5% | 85.2% | 78.1% | 47.5% |
| Ryan Zimmerman | 8.3% | 19.8% | 0.45 | 0.568 | 26.4% | 60.7% | 43.0% | 77.8% | 84.6% | 82.4% | 48.4% |
| Aaron Hill | 6.9% | 14.9% | 0.5 | 0.567 | 29.1% | 69.4% | 49.6% | 63.2% | 91.1% | 83.1% | 50.8% |
| Ryan Ludwick | 6.1% | 16.3% | 0.4 | 0.565 | 29.7% | 73.1% | 51.6% | 62.8% | 87.5% | 80.5% | 50.4% |
| Alberto Callaspo | 9.8% | 5.4% | 2 | 0.565 | 24.4% | 73.3% | 47.1% | 84.2% | 97.0% | 93.4% | 46.4% |
| Mike Lowell | 3.5% | 12.7% | 0.29 | 0.564 | 26.1% | 58.2% | 43.1% | 83.3% | 93.4% | 90.5% | 53.1% |
| Nelson Cruz | 8.2% | 22.8% | 0.39 | 0.564 | 19.5% | 73.0% | 44.6% | 45.2% | 78.3% | 70.6% | 46.8% |
| Joey Votto | 13.8% | 21.0% | 0.76 | 0.56 | 22.6% | 74.8% | 47.0% | 67.9% | 83.4% | 79.5% | 46.8% |
| Andre Ethier | 16.1% | 15.4% | 1.25 | 0.558 | 24.5% | 67.4% | 44.7% | 72.3% | 93.1% | 87.1% | 47.1% |
| Adam Dunn | 22.8% | 28.4% | 1.04 | 0.557 | 16.7% | 60.5% | 36.1% | 62.2% | 77.7% | 73.7% | 44.3% |
| Ryan Braun | 13.4% | 22.7% | 0.68 | 0.557 | 27.4% | 59.9% | 42.6% | 63.9% | 88.1% | 79.9% | 46.9% |
| Justin Upton | 10.0% | 25.9% | 0.43 | 0.556 | 28.8% | 64.1% | 43.8% | 45.5% | 79.1% | 66.4% | 42.6% |
| Justin Morneau | 6.0% | 17.3% | 0.37 | 0.555 | 37.7% | 72.3% | 52.4% | 55.6% | 93.0% | 77.6% | 42.5% |
| Jason Kubel | 5.2% | 15.2% | 0.36 | 0.554 | 26.2% | 73.7% | 49.4% | 60.5% | 93.0% | 84.2% | 48.8% |
| Freddy Sanchez | 3.4% | 17.0% | 0.21 | 0.554 | 30.2% | 67.7% | 51.0% | 65.0% | 90.5% | 83.8% | 55.5% |
| Jermaine Dye | 6.3% | 29.2% | 0.23 | 0.551 | 25.3% | 67.6% | 45.5% | 60.0% | 86.2% | 78.6% | 47.9% |
| Mark Reynolds | 9.3% | 33.0% | 0.31 | 0.546 | 19.8% | 66.0% | 42.8% | 37.5% | 72.7% | 64.5% | 49.8% |
| Hank Blalock | 3.0% | 15.3% | 0.2 | 0.541 | 28.9% | 70.0% | 49.7% | 56.3% | 87.4% | 78.4% | 50.6% |
| Orlando Hudson | 12.7% | 10.3% | 1.42 | 0.538 | 15.9% | 66.4% | 40.4% | 55.3% | 91.3% | 84.0% | 48.6% |
| Bengie Molina | 0.0% | 12.6% | 0 | 0.537 | 53.6% | 81.2% | 65.7% | 67.5% | 90.9% | 80.2% | 44.0% |
| Jay Bruce | 10.9% | 22.2% | 0.55 | 0.533 | 25.9% | 75.3% | 49.1% | 51.9% | 86.6% | 76.9% | 47.0% |
| Johnny Damon | 11.5% | 14.0% | 0.93 | 0.53 | 21.1% | 64.2% | 42.2% | 77.3% | 90.7% | 87.3% | 49.0% |
| Shane Victorino | 6.9% | 9.3% | 0.8 | 0.528 | 29.9% | 63.0% | 46.3% | 72.7% | 93.9% | 87.0% | 49.6% |
| Curtis Granderson | 9.2% | 21.3% | 0.48 | 0.528 | 20.9% | 59.2% | 40.2% | 60.4% | 86.2% | 79.6% | 50.3% |
| Kosuke Fukudome | 19.2% | 18.8% | 1.27 | 0.525 | 10.7% | 54.2% | 31.1% | 52.2% | 90.3% | 83.3% | 46.9% |
| Elijah Dukes | 11.6% | 27.4% | 0.48 | 0.524 | 23.7% | 76.0% | 46.0% | 42.9% | 82.1% | 70.5% | 42.7% |
| Alfonso Soriano | 9.0% | 27.9% | 0.35 | 0.523 | 35.4% | 72.0% | 51.5% | 44.7% | 89.7% | 72.4% | 44.1% |
| Chris Duncan | 14.6% | 20.5% | 0.83 | 0.523 | 18.8% | 66.1% | 40.2% | 28.2% | 93.8% | 77.0% | 45.2% |
| Robinson Cano | 5.8% | 9.6% | 0.64 | 0.518 | 30.6% | 70.1% | 49.8% | 82.5% | 96.3% | 92.0% | 48.5% |
| Todd Helton | 10.1% | 15.7% | 0.71 | 0.517 | 22.3% | 70.4% | 45.7% | 81.3% | 89.5% | 87.4% | 48.6% |
| Carlos Quentin | 9.5% | 12.6% | 0.83 | 0.516 | 27.0% | 81.9% | 52.8% | 66.7% | 90.3% | 83.9% | 47.0% |
| Rod Barajas | 5.6% | 11.9% | 0.5 | 0.512 | 26.3% | 74.7% | 51.9% | 67.5% | 92.1% | 86.2% | 52.8% |
| Carlos Lee | 7.3% | 8.8% | 0.89 | 0.51 | 23.8% | 74.0% | 49.3% | 68.2% | 95.1% | 88.7% | 50.9% |
| Ryan Howard | 11.6% | 29.3% | 0.45 | 0.505 | 31.6% | 81.7% | 52.1% | 44.2% | 81.2% | 67.9% | 40.9% |
| Mike Jacobs | 9.9% | 29.7% | 0.37 | 0.505 | 26.5% | 65.9% | 44.2% | 54.2% | 85.0% | 74.9% | 44.9% |
I understand that this is a lot to digest, but it gives a much clearer picture of Longoria as a hitter. I’ve bolded the statistics that fall noticeably below the league average in any given category (B/KK, Swing Percentage Outside the Zone, Swing Percentages Inside the Zone, Contact Outside the Zone, Contact Inside the Zone, and Zone Percentage [or percent of pitches inside the zone.])
Onto the Question: Why’s Longoria Getting So Many Pitches to Hit?
Of the elite hitters on this list, you’ve got to go all the way down to Adam Jones and Mike Cameron to find the other hot-hitting players that are seeing more pitches inside, rather than outside, of the zone. This obviously has quite a bit to do with line-up protection and for the most part it’s still pick your poison (Jones or Markakis, Braun or Cameron). If these players continue their hot hitting ways, you’d expect them to see less pitches inside the zone even if they’re protected by some of the most elite hitters in the game.
Longoria’s plate discipline statistics do not predict a dominant hitter. Longoria’s stats actually resemble a Russell Branyan-type hitter at this point. Their stats are eerily similar:
| Name | BB% | K% | BB/K | SLG | Out | Zone | Total | Out | Zone | Total | Zone% |
| Russell Branyan | 8.9% | 25.6% | 0.38 | 0.659 | 32.5% | 73.8% | 50.4% | 52.4% | 86.4% | 74.0% | 43.4% |
| Evan Longoria | 7.6% | 23.9% | 0.35 | 0.706 | 29.4% | 68.4% | 49.3% | 53.1% | 78.2% | 70.9% | 51.1% |
Branyan chases a few more pitches, but he also makes more contact. The only real difference here is that Longoria’s seeing 7% more pitches inside the strike-zone. Comparing Russell Branyan and Evan Longoria is terrifying, so I’ll never do it again, but how does Longoria react when pitchers start throwing him more borderline strikes?
Longoria’s plate discipline statistics may be skewed because he’s seeing the ball so well, and making damn-hard contact so often — but I’m still concerned.
Other players like Adam Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds fall into the trap of walking too little, swinging too much, and making poor contact on those swings. It’s obviously been working for them just as well as it has been for Longoria, but they’re all young players who are still getting a large percentage of pitches inside the zone.
If Longoria keeps up his sweet swinging ways, pitchers are going to have to start respecting him or challenging him. Carlos Pena continues to be among the league leaders in Home Runs, but at some point pitchers are going to have to risk walking Longoria in order to test his plate discipline. It’s a tricky situation as the Rays’ line-up has been terrific thus far and Upton still hasn’t even come close to hitting his stride.
Opposing pitchers will eventually catch onto Longoria’s lack of plate discipline, and it’ll be up to Longoria to adapt. I’m not predicting the end of the Longoria-Era by any stretch of the imagination. Ryan Howard has obviously shown that a player can still be successful only getting 40% of their pitches inside of the zone.
Keep in mind, we’re really only working off 30 games worth of 2009 statistics so there’s going to be a small sample size warning. With Longoria, it’s quite clear why almost everything is prefaced with a small sample size caveat — Check out the pitchers that he’s faced thus far:
| vs. Baltimore Orioles | ||||||||||||||||
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | GIDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ||
| Danys Báez | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brian Bass | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 2.5 | |
| Adam Eaton | 6 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.167 | 1.667 | |
| Jeremy Guthrie | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 1 | 1.667 | |
| Mark Hendrickson | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 1.333 | 1.667 | |
| Jim Johnson | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Bob McCrory | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Koji Uehara | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0.667 | 1 | |
| Jamie Walker | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| vs. Boston Red Sox | ||||||||||||||||
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | GIDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ||
| Josh Beckett | 6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 0.167 | 0.333 | 0.5 | |
| Manny Delcarmen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.667 | 0.5 | 1.167 | |
| Hunter Jones | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | |
| Jon Lester | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0.667 | 1 | |
| Javier López | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| Justin Masterson | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1.25 | 1.75 | |
| Daisuke Matsuzaka | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2.333 | 3.333 | |
| Hideki Okajima | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brad Penny | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| Ramón Ramírez | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Takashi Saito | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 2.5 | |
| Tim Wakefield | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 1 | 1.667 | |
| vs. Chicago White Sox | ||||||||||||||||
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | GIDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ||
| Mark Buehrle | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 1.333 | |
| D.J. Carrasco | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Bartolo Colón | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0.667 | 1 | |
| Octavio Dotel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Gavin Floyd | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Clayton Richard | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| vs. Minnesota Twins | ||||||||||||||||
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | GIDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ||
| Luis Ayala | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Scott Baker | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.667 | 1 | 1.667 | |
| Nick Blackburn | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 0.5 | |
| R.A. Dickey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Francisco Liriano | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0.667 | 1 | |
| José Mijares | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| vs. New York Yankees | ||||||||||||||||
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | GIDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ||
| Jonathan Albaladejo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Brian Bruney | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| A.J. Burnett | 6 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 0.5 | 0.833 | |
| Andy Pettitte | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.333 | 1.333 | 1.667 | |
| Edwar Ramírez | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | |
| Mariano Rivera | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2 | 2.5 | |
| José Veras | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | |
| vs. Oakland Athletics | ||||||||||||||||
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | GIDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ||
| Dallas Braden | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.667 | 0.5 | 1.167 | |
| Trevor Cahill | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 | 1.5 | |
| Dana Eveland | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0 | 0.333 | |
| Dan Giese | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0 | 0.5 | |
| Russ Springer | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Michael Wuertz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| vs. Seattle Mariners | ||||||||||||||||
| AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB | CS | GIDP | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS | ||
| David Aardsma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Miguel Batista | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | |
| Roy Corcoran | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | |
| Félix Hernández | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Chris Jakubauskas | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 1.5 | 2.167 | |
| Mark Lowe | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Jarrod Washburn | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.667 | 1 | 1.667 | |
This isn’t exactly murderers row, but you’ve got to give credit to Longoria for killing the pitchers that he should be killing. He hasn’t had much luck against solid pitchers, and has thus far managed to run into the tougher pitchers are opportune times. Catching the Yankees and the Red Sox early in the season when their pitching is a mess has helped Longoria and all of the Rays. A large portion of Longoria’s counting stats have come off none other than the Baltimore Orioles — it’ll be fun to watch him take on some of the stronger rotations.
To me, Longoria’s the epitome of a sell-high candidate. If you can get first round talent for him, I’m pulling the trigger pronto.
Tampa Bay Rays
The Price is Right, Tampa Bay Edition.
April 5, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
The Rays optioned David Price late last month, and the fantasy crowd lost their head. Today, the Rays have shown that they’re actually brilliant wizards with mythical, magical, MYSTICAL! powers:
Tampa Bay Rays
Acquired Minor League RHP Aneury Rodriguez from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for RHP Jason Hammel.
One down, one to go!
Jeff Neimann, who seemed like he was heading for the bullpen now fills the 5th starter role.
I find it next to impossible to believe that the Rays will keep Price in the minors until the end of June, which they’d probably have to do if they wanted to delay his Free Agent year. This isn’t exactly about money: Generally prospects are sent down to delay their arbitration year, but Price is already purchased for 6 years. This is about the possibility of delaying Price from entering free agency a year early. That’s the 2012/2013 season, I believe.
Maybe the old Rays would keep Price down, but the new Rays just got to the World Series. If things take a turn for the worst, I’d expect Price up pronto. There will come a point where someone gets hurt, or Niemann sucks it up. At that point, Price will get the call.
I’d say the odds of Price getting the call before the end of June, just doubled or tripled with the trade of Hammel.
By the way, RHP Aneury Rodriguez, is a solid power-pitching prospect who showed all around improvement last year with Modesto in A+. He’s still only 21 years old, and while he shouldn’t be on your fantasy radar for another 2 or 3 years, it shows that the Rays didn’t just give Hammel away; which would have been the case if they’d optioned him or Neimann instead of Price.
Tampa Bay Rays
Christopher Davis Vs. Carlos Pena
March 29, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
Continuing the trend of answering random Google search queries that bring people to this site, I’ll now attempt to answer the question: Chris Davis vs. Carlos Pena.
Chris Davis and Carlos Pena really aren’t that different. In 1998, the Texas Rangers made Carlos Pena the 10th overall pick. Skip ahead 8 years to 2006 and the Rangers select Chris Davis in round 5.
Pena’s enjoyed a roller-coaster career, ranking as high as the fifth overall prospect by Baseball America in 2002. That same year he began his free-fall, as he hit .218 for the Athletics before they shipped him off to the Tigers. Thus began Carlos Pena’s jet-setting ways, where in 2007 he landed in his 6th city, Tampa Bay.
Chris Davis has been on the fast track to the bigs after being drafted out of Navarro Junior College. Davis has been ranked as high as Texas’ second overall prospect, and the 65th overall prospect in all of baseball.
Both Davis and Pena started their careers as 20-year olds who smashed minor league pitching, but lacked contact skills. Davis possessed a higher slugging percentage while Pena had an incredibly superior walk-rate.
We’re not comparing Davis and Pena as 20-year olds though, we’re comparing 23-year old Christopher Davis with nearly 31-year old Carlos Pena.
The Art Of Hitting: Batting Average And On-Base-Percentage
Some things never change though: Christopher Davis has made a habit of striking out too much and is predicted to strike-out around 30 percent of the time in 2008. Carlos Pena, strangely enough is also predicted to strike-out, you guessed it: 30 percent of the time.
Comparing Carlos Pena and Chris Davis ends up being pretty interesting because of this. Christopher Davis is predicted to walk about 7 percent of the time and post a .25-.30 BB:K ratio in 2009. Regardless of his lack of plate discipline, he should have a superior batting average to Carlos Pena. Pena, who has at least a respectable 15% BB-Rate, will end up batting almost 25 points less then Davis. Obviously, if you’re in an OBP league rather than an AVG league things change.
According to MARCEL, Davis’ .288 batting average becomes a .345 OBP and Pena’s .261 average becomes a .379 OBP. Keep in mind, Pena does have the potential to post a respectable batting average, as seen by the .282 he posted in 2007.
The Art Of Smash-Killing Home Runs
The variance in Davis’ projections is ridiculous; he’s predicted to hit between 16 and 40 HR which puts him somewhere between waiver-wire bait, and second round pick. While the computers disagree on how many HR he’ll hit, they’re all pretty certain he’ll continue his smash-killing ways with a SLG of over .500 and an ISO of about .230.
Carlos Pena on the other hand is projected by all but one computer to hit 31 HR. Oliver, the odd projection system out, predicts a mind-boggling 32 HR. Yet I still can’t help but recall Pena’s 46 HR 2007 season.
Odds are this is going to be pretty close to a wash. Chris Davis could well blow up and hit 36 HR, but that’s probably only going to best Carlos Pena by five or so HR.
If pitchers adapt to Davis’ free-swinging ways though, he could be on his way to becoming the next Carlos Pena.
The Art of Knockin’ ‘em in, and Scoring ‘em Yourself.
I never bet against the Ball Park in Arlington when it comes to counting stats. Even marginal players start posting ridiculous totals when they play in Texas. Josh Hamilton, Micheal Young and Ian Kinsler are the only givens, but Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Elvis Andrus, Hank Blalock and the combination of Salty/Teagarden add a lot of intrigue to this lineup.
Christopher Davis has a very legitimate shot at posting at least 100 of both runs batted in, and runs scored.
Carlos Pena on the other hand should sit fairly comfortably in the middle of a young and talented Tampa Bay Rays line-up. With the addition of Burrell, Pena’s runs scored should also improve. It once again comes down to which version of Carlos Pena we’ll get though. The 2007 version hit for a solid average, got on base, and in turn scored almost 100 runs while driving in 121. In 2008 he remained a solid run producer, driving in 102 but his runs scored fell off drastically to 76. With Burrell and Joyce added to the equation, you’d have to expect a return to the 90-100 Runs scored region.
The Art of the Stolen Base
Neither Davis nor Pena will steal enough bases to warrant any added value.
The Conclusion:
Davis is coming off the board at 65th overall, which is essentially a round before Pena at 77th overall. Realistically, this is probably due to Davis’ multi-position eligibility and the perceived value of third base eligibility.
I’m honestly worried about both of these two though. Davis’ lack of plate discipline could spell disaster if pitchers ever adapt to his incredible power and Pena’s lack of consistency was showcased last year.
Both of these sluggers are coming off the board fairly early considering the talent that’s around them, and I’ll be implimenting draft and trade strategies with both of them.
There’s really no clear cut winner in this competition. Davis’ average notches him ahead of Pena, but the risk of immense failure negates this advantage.
In shallow leagues, it pays to take extremely large risks because you could fill Davis’ spot with a solid but not spectacular third basemen, should Davis fall flat on his face.
In deeper leagues, I’d wait the 30 picks and take a safe bet like Garrett Atkins who has most of the potential, but not nearly the risk.
Unfortunately Pena belongs to a large group of first basemen with some variety of risk. You can’t just wait a while and take the safe pick, so you’re going to have to pick what type of risk you want to incur: Votto’s inexperience, Delgado’s age, LaRoche’s slow-stars, or Conor Jackson’s lack of power.
I’d have to go with 10 teams and under, pick Chris Davis. 14 Teams and over is Carlos Pena Time.
Tampa Bay Rays
David Price: Leavin’ On A Jet Plane, Don’t Know When He’ll Be Back Again
March 26, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
…and this is why it’s important to know who’s out of options on any given team. David Price, last year’s play-off hero and this year’s fantasy wet-dream, has been sent down.
Maybe it’s because Price’s change-up needs work, or maybe it’s due to his grand total of 19 professional starts. What makes the most sense is that Jeff Niemann and Jason Hammel are out of options.
If you option Niemann or Hammel to the minors, they’re gone faster than David Price’s fast-ball. There’s maybe 5 teams that wouldn’t be able to roster either of those two.
Optioning Price to the minors at the very least, buys the Rays time. It buys them time for a trade, and it buys them time for an injury. Injuries happen, and it’s not like Scott Kazmir is the picture of health. Niemann, who’s almost twice times the size of Kazmir, is an injury waiting to happen as well.
Price will be back up, it’s just a matter of time.
Analysis Time:
David Price:
In the short term, Price’s value goes down. I have trouble believing that Price is in the Minors for more than a month unless he experiences some growing pains. I understand the Rays’ concern with Price, as a full major league season may just be too much, too soon.
Did anyone think that Price would get to 200 IP? It was tantalizing to look at his stats and adjust them for 200IP, but did you really think it was going to happen?
Price doesn’t need to work on his change-up, or his make-up. He just needs to pitch professionally. Price needs to learn how to limit his pitches, as many strike-out pitchers often need to learn. While it’s nice to notch a strike-out per inning, it’s going to take a minimum 5 or 6 pitches per strike-out. Price can save himself quite a few pitches by throwing his ridiculous fastball-slider combo in *hittable* but not *crushable* locations. Use your infield young man.
I’ll still stick with 140-150 IP for Price.
Niemann and Hammel:
Niemann has the upside and the downside. He was drafted 4th overall out of Rice in the 2004 first year player draft. He hasn’t lived up to the hype, as his career has been side-tracked by injuries almost yearly. Niemann’s got the stuff, and has been improving throughout Spring Training.
Niemann may become rosterable at some point, for a 3 or 4 starts at a time. That’s if he manages to snag the job away from Hammel.
Hammel’s boring, and while he’s a good pitcher that any team could use — he’s not a fantasy pitcher. He’s got a solid arsenal, and he knows how to use it, but he’ll always be average. Unless you’re in New York, Boston, or Chicago, fifth starters are normally below average, obviously.
Even if Hammel snags the starting gig, and puts up 2 or 3 great starts; I wouldn’t roster him. Average players put up average stats in most cases. Great stats become average stats by adding, you guessed it, awful stats.
Conclusion
Some people may assume Price will be kept down for a while, I disagree. The Rays have so much pitching depth, talented pitching depth, in their minor league system that Hammel is really only needed for a year.
With the NCAA tournament going on, and Michigan State doing their thing; I can’t help but be reminded of Tom Izzo’s use of Morris Peterson. Peterson was obviously the best player on that MSU squad, but he didn’t start. Mateen Cleaves and Charlie Bell would do their thing, and when you needed a shot in the arm – BAM! – In comes Mo-Pete, and boy did it work.
Was that really 9 years ago?
If the Rays start out slow, which is a definite possibility, they’ve got their shot in the arm.
Price is just an injury or a trade away and if the Rays are going to option either Niemann or Hammel, they’re going to do it as early as possible. If Niemann starts slowly, and is essentially useless, the Rays are going to want to force the hand of whomever nabs him off waivers. A lot of teams will want Niemann on their roster, but whether or not they can keep him on the roster the entire year is a different story.
The Rays are in a Win – Win. If Hammel and Niemann play well, they’ve increased their stock and should be able to shop them fairly easily. If they play terribly, they’ll probably return to Tampa at some point during the year.
There’s probably a 75 percent shot that Price returns due to an injury, and a 20 percent shot of a return due to trade. Throw in another 5 percent shot of either Hammel or Niemann going on waivers, and we’re good to go.
Tampa Bay Rays
Matt Joyce’s Bum-Leg Prohibits Smash-Killing of Baseballs.
March 25, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
It’s almost opening day, and it’s about time to look at some roster-fillers in moderately deep leagues. I’ve always been hesitant to blabber on about early round draft picks, because for the most part you’re not going to win or lose the draft in the first 10-rounds, unless your competition is a group of no-nothing idiots.
Matt Joyce
Joyce was acquired by the Rays late last year for Edwin Jackson, in what was widely heralded as a brilliant move for the Rays. The Rays, who are stuffed full of nutritiously delicious starting pitcher depth, magically turned a 2009-arbitration eligible starting pitcher into a power hitting right fielder with a cheap price-tag for 2 more years.
Unfortunately for the Rays, Matt Joyce has been battling a mysterious calf strain. The MRI’s have shown it to just be a strain, but it has plagued him essentially the whole of spring training. Joyce finally did pitch hit and DH against the Yankees on Sunday, the 22nd.
Joyce was originally slated to be the Rays starting right fielder, giving the Rays one of the better defensive outfields in the game. At this point, after missing all of camp, it’ll be interesting to see what the Rays do. Almost all of the media outlets are reporting that there’s a better than average shot that Joyce doesn’t even start the year in the Bigs.
While I understand Joyce is a young kid who needs all the seasoning he can get, he’s still a better option in right field than anyone the Rays can throw out there. Even if we assume Joyce doesn’t play for a month, or is limited to platoon duty — what should be expected?
- Hits Righties
- Good Power
- Low Average
- Lots of Strike-outs
- Lots of Walks
- Very Solid Defense
We’re basically looking at a guy, like Adam Dunn, who possesses less fantasy value than real world value (assuming your league doesn’t use OBP or award points for BBs).
It’s going to be tough to project Joyce’s batting average this year. While he did hit a very solid .270 in triple-A before the call-up, which he followed up with a .252 AVG in Detroit; We may have a player who hits for somewhere between .220 and .240.
It’s somewhat painful projecting an optimistic-ceiling for Joyce’s batting average at .270, but it’s gotta be done.
Joyce should come in somewhere in the low-.250’s, if he’s played substantially from each side of the plate. If Joyce is limited to platoon duty, he may emerge as a Jayson Werth-lite, posting somewhere in the neighborhood of .270ish with power.
Joyce’s consistent walk rate of 10+ percent, doesn’t negate his striking out over a quarter of the time, but it helps. If Joyce can float somewhere in the .50 BB to K rate, he’ll provide useful pop to the back-end of your fantasy line-up.
With the front of the Rays line-up solidified, it looks as though Joyce will be manning the 6 or 7th spot behind Iwamura, Crawford, Upton, Longoria, Pena and Burrell. You shouldn’t be fooled by Pena and Burrell’s low averages, as their high-OBP (both are projected above .375-OBP) will produce ample RBI opportunities for the power-hitting Joyce.
Even if Joyce bats at the tail end of the Rays line-up, he’s still in position to knock in his fair share with Barlett and Navarro manning the other two spots. The depth in Tampa renders Joyce’s position in the batting order negligible when determining his fantasy value. Joyce’s solid ~.35oOBP should also keep him on-base enough to score his fair share.
Assuming Joyce gets healthy, and nabs the starting gig no more than a month into the season — What should we expect?
65 to 70 of both Runs and RBIs should be in the cards, to go along with 20-25 HR power. The majority of the statistical models project Joyce below the 20-HR mark for the upcoming 2009 season, but I couldn’t disagree more. The only thing keeping Joyce from hitting ‘taters is his playing time. If he gets 460, or 451 AB as predicted by Zips and Oliver respectively, he’ll smash-kill the ball.
Whether or not a final line of 22HR, 68 RBI, 70 R, .245 AVG and 2 SB is useful, really depends on your league.
If it isn’t, I can guarentee you that there will at least be a few hot-streaks where Joyce is rosterable even in the shallowest leagues. Of course a great month doesn’t make a great season.
Keep an eye out for Joyce, as Gross and Zobrist can only man that RF spot for so long. If Joyce continues to be plagued by this injury, we’ve got a problem. All the signs were there, and technically still are there, for a hidden gem but nothing kills a fantasy sleeper like missing Spring Training.
Assume Joyce goes for 16HR/60R/60RBI/.250 if he stays in that platoon for too long, and lower it further if his injury really lingers. One bright spot, if you can call it that, is Joyce’s average will improve the more he’s platooned (to a ceiling of about .260 – .270, let’s not go crazy here).
Tampa Bay Rays
Evan Longoria, The Hype Machine.
The hype-machine would like to welcome your reigning American League Rookie of the Year and member of the American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays, Sir Evan Longoria.
Longoria seems to have his head on right, and is definitely one of the nicer guys around the league. Always taking time to chat with fans, sign autographs, and generally remain in high spirits. There is however, a whole lot of weight on his shoulders this year. There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Longoria and the Rays to repeat their unbelievable, unexpected, unpredicted, unprecedented success in 2008.
The question is: Will They Live Up To The Hype
As a Reference Point, here’s our Evan Longoria Fantasy Stat Index
| YR | LVL | AB | HR | R | RBI | SB | AVG | BB% | K% | BB/K | OBP | SLG | OPS | BABIP |
| 2006 | (A-) | 33 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 1 | 0.424 | 13.20% | 15.20% | 1 | 0.487 | 0.879 | 1.366 | 0.417 |
| 2006 | (A+) | 110 | 8 | 22 | 28 | 1 | 0.327 | 10.60% | 17.30% | 0.68 | 0.402 | 0.618 | 1.02 | 0.337 |
| 2006 | (AA) | 105 | 6 | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0.267 | 0.90% | 19.00% | 0.05 | 0.266 | 0.486 | 0.752 | 0.278 |
| 2007 | (AA) | 381 | 21 | 78 | 76 | 4 | 0.307 | 11.80% | 21.30% | 0.63 | 0.403 | 0.528 | 0.93 | 0.344 |
| 2007 | (AAA) | 104 | 5 | 19 | 19 | 0 | 0.269 | 17.50% | 27.90% | 0.76 | 0.398 | 0.49 | 0.889 | 0.329 |
| 2008 | (AAA) | 25 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.2 | 13.80% | 20.00% | 0.8 | 0.333 | 0.2 | 0.533 | 0.25 |
| 2008 | Rays | 448 | 27 | 67 | 85 | 7 | 0.272 | 9.30% | 27.20% | 0.38 | 0.343 | 0.531 | 0.874 | 0.318 |
| 2009 | BILLJ | 599 | 37 | 102 | 116 | 9 | 0.28 | 10.30% | 23.70% | 0.49 | 0.358 | 0.534 | 0.892 | 0.312 |
| 2009 | CHONE | 452 | 22 | 71 | 80 | 5 | 0.265 | 10.10% | 25.00% | 0.45 | 0.346 | 0.476 | 0.822 | 0.309 |
| 2009 | Marcel | 400 | 21 | 60 | 71 | 7 | 0.28 | 9.50% | 24.00% | 0.44 | 0.351 | 0.515 | 0.866 | 0.322 |
| 2009 | Oliver | 475 | 24 | 0.272 | 8.70% | 23.40% | 0.41 | 0.339 | 0.486 | 0.825 | 0.309 | |||
| 2009 | ZiPS | 515 | 28 | 78 | 91 | 6 | 0.264 | 9.80% | 23.70% | 0.46 | 0.342 | 0.489 | 0.831 | 0.296 |
Longoria has been on the fast track to the big leagues since he was drafted 3rd overall way back in the year 2006. Longoria was generally considered the best hitter of the bunch and the scouts raved about how quick his hands were.
After last years’ rookie of the year campaign, it appears as though nothing has changed. Longoria is still very quick through the zone, and has the ability to adjust quickly.
The question fantasy owners want answered is whether or not Evan Longoria will IMPROVE upon last years’ numbers. The odd thing about fantasy drafts is that young players are always projected to improve in the eyes of fantasy owners, while projection models almost always predict a slight regression in the non-counting stats.
The first thing required to guestimate the chance of improvement is Longoria’s ABs. Longoria started out 2008 in AAA, and after posting mediocre numbers, he got the call. Some wonder why the Rays even bothered to send him down for 25 AB, but to each his own.
Longoria logged 448 at-bats in 2008, and missed games due to his minor league stint and late season injuries. Longoria broke his left wrist during the dog-days of August, but made it back for the playoffs where everything seemed fine.
Bill James’ Projection Model comes the closest to predicting a full-season for Longoria, at 599AB. As there appeared to be no lasting effects from the wrist injury, there’s no reason to assume that Longoria won’t play a full season. BJ’s robot also predicts a slight increase in batting average, which brings us to this stat line: 37HR/102R/116RBI/9SB/.280 average.
This is bringing us awful close to David Wright territory (32HR, 112R,119RBI,17SB, .309AVG) and it’s definitely putting Longoria somewhere between tier-1 and tier-2. A-Rod’s injury currently leaves tier-1 with a single occupant, David Wright. Longoria’s projected line bests Aramis Ramirez’s, and with Chipper’s injury concerns – Is Longoria the second best 3rd Basemen out there?
What’s Keeping Longoria From Being Great
Of the ELITE third basemen (Rodriguez, Wright, Chipper, Ramirez and Longoria,) Longoria stood out in a couple categories, bad categories; strike-out and walk percentage, which we’ll combine into BB:K.
O-SW is O-Swing, or Swing Percentage Outside the zone. Z-SW is swings within the zone, and SW is total Swing percentage. CON is contact percentage, with the same sub-categories.
| Name | BB% | K% | BB/K | O-SW% | Z-SW% | SW% | O-CON% | Z-CON% | CON% |
| Alex Rodriguez | 11.30% | 22.90% | 0.56 | 22.90% | 68.00% | 46.10% | 51.60% | 83.50% | 75.80% |
| Aramis Ramirez | 11.80% | 17.00% | 0.79 | 26.20% | 70.10% | 48.00% | 60.40% | 87.80% | 80.30% |
| Chipper Jones | 17.00% | 13.90% | 1.48 | 15.20% | 67.20% | 40.10% | 65.10% | 87.00% | 82.70% |
| David Wright | 13.10% | 18.80% | 0.8 | 21.90% | 69.60% | 45.20% | 64.80% | 89.50% | 83.40% |
| Evan Longoria | 9.30% | 27.20% | 0.38 | 26.50% | 66.40% | 46.70% | 58.10% | 83.50% | 76.40% |
So here’s our problem: Longoria walks the least and strikes-out the most, giving him a tolerable but not preferable BB/K ratio. Normally we see these numbers with pure power hitters rather than someone who projects more in the David Wright mold.
Longoria also swings the most often at pitches outside the zone, and swings the least at pitches inside the zone. His low Z-Swing percentage artificially lowers his actual Swing percentage. When it comes to plate discipline, we’re talking more Aramis Ramirez than David Wright or Chipper Jones.
Considering Longoria has the “worst” eye of the bunch, you’d assume he’d make up for it with his quick wrists but his contact rate floats around Alex Rodriguez who’s far more of a pure power hitter.
I’m hesitant to overly criticize Longoria because different players make different approaches work, and a year from now maybe we’ll be comparing the freshest face with Longoria’s approach. However, these numbers are troublesome until we actually know what Longoria is: a pure-power hitter, a doubles-machine that hits 35HR a year, or a patient hitter that capitalizes on mistakes.
The good news is that we should expect improvement in all of these fields as Longoria gains experience and matures as a hitter. The bad news is that if Longoria hasn’t made strides during the off-season to curb these bad habits, pitchers will adapt. This is why so many talented rookies experience the dreaded sophomore slump.
Conclusion:
According to ESPN, Evan Longoria is coming off the board as the second third basemen drafted but he’s nearly 21 positions below David Wright who averages the 4th overall draft spot, or the third player chosen. Overall this puts Longoria somewhere in the neighborhood of Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday.
It’s tough to price Longoria out at this spot, as both Holliday and Beltran run and Fielder plays first base. Alex Rodriguez is going off the board in around the same spot but with his recent injury woes, we can’t exactly judge Longoria against A-Rod either.
However, it’s fairly clear that Longoria’s draft spot reflects a common view that not only will Longoria will play a full season, he’ll also improve. This is not a stance I’d be willing to take, so long as you can get Youkilis 10 picks later, Ramirez 16 Picks later, and Chipper Jones nearly 30 picks later. After the elite players there’s a plethora of high-risk / high-reward players that run almost 25 deep.
Evan Longoria has a decent shot of meeting these lofty expectations, but I can’t recommend buying into the hype. As with any young player, there are going to be some ups and downs and the Tampa Bay Rays will undoubtedly come back down to earth which’ll lower Longoria’s Rib-Eyes and Runs.
If Longoria stole 20 Bases, or hit .300, both of which he theoretically COULD do — it’d be a different ball-game. But as a .280 hitter that doesn’t run that much, 25th overall or the end of the second round is just too high.
Instead, take a risk on Edwin Encarnacion or Chris Davis that could realistically put up very similar numbers at a much cheaper price. Davis does however suffer from all of the strike-out, contact, and plate discipline problems that may plague Longoria.
Photo's Courtesy Of Keith Allison - Flickr
Tampa Bay Rays
The Curious Case Of The AL East.
February 17, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
As a native Torontonian and a Blue Jays season ticket holder, I get to behold the beauty that is the Yankees vs. Red Sox reloading period known as Free Agency. People look at the Yankees and Red Sox as fantasy goldmines but with the recent reloading of their pitching staffs, combined with the maturation of the Rays; I’m curious as to how the rest of the AL EAST will fair.
How will the Orioles and Blue Jays offenses, and to a lesser extent the Yankees, Sox and Rays fair against pitching staff’s consisting of 4 and sometimes 5, potential aces. Unfortunately, it doesn’t end with the starting pitching as the bullpen’s in the AL East are also some of the best in the MLB.
Even in 2008, the numbers were:
| TEAM | BLUE JAYS | RAYS | SOX | YANKEES | ORIOLES |
| MLB RANK | 1st | 3rd | 9th | 15th | 29th |
| ERA | 3.49 | 3.82 | 4.01 | 4.28 | 5.15 |
BLUE JAYS
LOST: McGowan (Injury), Marcum (Injury), John Parrish, A.J Burnett. GAINED: Brian Burress, Mike Maroth, Matt Clement, Bryan Bullington,
RAYS
LOST: Edwin Jackson and Trever Miller. GAINED: Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier, Brian Shouse
YANKEES
LOST: Muissina (Retirement), Pavano, Ponson GAINED: Sabathia, Burnett
REDSOX
LOST: Timlin, Byrd, Schilling, Aardsma, Smoltz (Injury) GAINED: Tazawa (Japan), Ramon Ramirez, Penny, Smoltz, Saito
ORIOLES
LOST: Burress, Cabrera, Olson, Cormier GAINED: Uehara (Japan), Hendrickson, Rich Hill, David Pauley, Brad Hennessey, John Parrish
Onto the point young man, get to the point!
Blue Jays and Orioles hitters are going to be facing the Rays, Sox, and Yankees 18-19 times each. Which means they’ll be facing an above average cast of stars, a third of their season which doesn’t include anyone outside their division or Jeremy Guthrie, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, etc. etc.
| Season | Team | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | HR | BB | SO | K/9 | BB/9 | K/BB | HR/9 | AVG | WHIP |
| Sabathia | BJ | 16 | 10 | 3.48 | 34 | 34 | 240 | 226 | 21 | 70 | 205 | 7.69 | 2.63 | 2.93 | 0.79 | 0.25 | 1.23 |
| Burnett | BJ | 14 | 11 | 3.62 | 33 | 32 | 224 | 199 | 21 | 88 | 218 | 8.76 | 3.54 | 2.48 | 0.84 | 0.24 | 1.28 |
| Wang | BJ | 13 | 9 | 3.7 | 30 | 30 | 200 | 208 | 11 | 58 | 92 | 4.14 | 2.61 | 1.59 | 0.5 | 0.269 | 1.33 |
| Petitte | BJ | 12 | 10 | 3.9 | 30 | 30 | 192 | 205 | 18 | 51 | 147 | 6.89 | 2.39 | 2.88 | 0.84 | 0.275 | 1.33 |
| Chamberlain | CH | 8 | 4 | 3.39 | 21 | 21 | 101 | 88 | 9 | 39 | 112 | 9.98 | 3.48 | 2.87 | 0.8 | 0.236 | 1.26 |
| Hughes | BJ | 9 | 5 | 3.35 | 22 | 22 | 125 | 110 | 9 | 46 | 122 | 8.78 | 3.31 | 2.65 | 0.65 | 0.238 | 1.25 |
| Beckett | BJ | 13 | 8 | 3.57 | 29 | 29 | 189 | 176 | 21 | 55 | 176 | 8.38 | 2.62 | 3.2 | 1 | 0.248 | 1.22 |
| Matsuzaka | BJ | 12 | 8 | 3.58 | 30 | 30 | 184 | 160 | 17 | 77 | 174 | 8.51 | 3.77 | 2.26 | 0.83 | 0.236 | 1.29 |
| Lester | BJ | 12 | 11 | 4.02 | 32 | 32 | 212 | 209 | 19 | 88 | 168 | 7.13 | 3.74 | 1.91 | 0.81 | 0.259 | 1.4 |
| Penny | BJ | 8 | 7 | 3.92 | 22 | 21 | 130 | 134 | 12 | 42 | 90 | 6.23 | 2.91 | 2.14 | 0.83 | 0.268 | 1.35 |
| Smoltz | CH | 6 | 5 | 3.87 | 15 | 15 | 93 | 95 | 9 | 25 | 78 | 7.55 | 2.42 | 3.12 | 0.87 | 0.266 | 1.29 |
| Bucholz | CH | 7 | 6 | 4.27 | 24 | 24 | 116 | 114 | 13 | 51 | 111 | 8.61 | 3.96 | 2.18 | 1.01 | 0.258 | 1.42 |
| Wakefield | BJ | 10 | 8 | 3.91 | 28 | 28 | 160 | 151 | 21 | 55 | 107 | 6.02 | 3.09 | 1.95 | 1.18 | 0.251 | 1.29 |
| Kazmir | BJ | 10 | 8 | 3.8 | 29 | 29 | 162 | 144 | 17 | 74 | 177 | 9.83 | 4.11 | 2.39 | 0.94 | 0.24 | 1.35 |
| Shields | BJ | 14 | 10 | 3.65 | 32 | 32 | 212 | 210 | 24 | 44 | 178 | 7.56 | 1.87 | 4.05 | 1.02 | 0.26 | 1.2 |
| Garza | BJ | 11 | 9 | 3.85 | 29 | 29 | 183 | 181 | 16 | 63 | 153 | 7.52 | 3.1 | 2.43 | 0.79 | 0.26 | 1.33 |
| Price | CH | 4 | 5 | 4.9 | 16 | 16 | 79 | 84 | 12 | 34 | 59 | 6.72 | 3.87 | 1.74 | 1.37 | 0.274 | 1.49 |
| Sonnanstine | BJ | 11 | 10 | 3.92 | 31 | 31 | 195 | 206 | 25 | 40 | 145 | 6.69 | 1.85 | 3.63 | 1.15 | 0.273 | 1.26 |
| Niemann | CH | 5 | 7 | 4.86 | 22 | 22 | 111 | 116 | 17 | 47 | 86 | 6.97 | 3.81 | 1.83 | 1.38 | 0.27 | 1.47 |
| Halladay | BJ | 17 | 10 | 3.18 | 32 | 32 | 241 | 228 | 18 | 44 | 172 | 6.42 | 1.64 | 3.91 | 0.67 | 0.251 | 1.13 |
| Litsch | BJ | 9 | 11 | 4.06 | 27 | 27 | 180 | 190 | 21 | 45 | 108 | 5.4 | 2.25 | 2.4 | 1.05 | 0.272 | 1.31 |
| Purcey | CH | 7 | 8 | 4.71 | 24 | 24 | 128 | 132 | 18 | 53 | 105 | 7.38 | 3.73 | 1.98 | 1.27 | 0.268 | 1.45 |
| McGowan | BJ | 7 | 7 | 3.95 | 22 | 22 | 128 | 124 | 12 | 52 | 110 | 7.73 | 3.66 | 2.12 | 0.84 | 0.256 | 1.38 |
| Richmond | CH | 5 | 7 | 4.89 | 19 | 19 | 105 | 115 | 17 | 36 | 73 | 6.26 | 3.09 | 2.03 | 1.46 | 0.28 | 1.44 |
| Janssen | CH | 3 | 3 | 3.81 | 44 | 0 | 52 | 54 | 4 | 14 | 34 | 5.88 | 2.42 | 2.43 | 0.69 | 0.269 | 1.31 |
BJ: Bill James Projection Model CH: Chone Projection Model when there was no BJ Data.
An Example:
Nick Markakis is one of the best young outfielders in the league, and most people have him improving upon his 20HR in 2008, and 23HR in 2007. Some think this is a stretch, but it’s the prevailing thought.
Markakis will be facing Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Petitte, Chamberlain, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Penny, Smoltz/Buchholz, Wakefield, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine, Halladay and McGowan with the possibility of Hughes being thrown in there.
Sonnanstine, Penny, Wakefield, and McGowan come in as average players with the possibility of sub-4.00 ERAs.
The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays all have stellar bullpens as well.
The question is whether or not Markakis projections should be adjusted based on the level of competition?
A Non-Math Conclusion — For Now.
As much as I’d like to assume that somehow, someway, the AL EAST pitching will be no better or no worse than it normally is, or the rest of the schedule will even everything out — I CANT! The talent either came from the NL, or within the AL EAST.
Thankfully, other than Alex Rios and Vernon Wells the Blue Jays really do not have any notable offensive fantasy contributors.
The Orioles on the other hand are filled with players that could potentially be effected by not only the front five, but also the depth of the Sox and Yankees. Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Matt Wieters, and Brian Roberts are all going fairly high in 2009. Felix Pie, Adam Jones, Ty Wigginton and Melvin Mora are also on many people’s sleeper lists.
I’m not sure how this will play out, but with so much talent bunched at the top — I’m going to downgrade players on the Orioles and Blue Jays.
Players on the Rays, Yankees and BoSox should roughly stay the same as the O’s and J’s are a mess up front.
If you have the slightest clue as to how this will actually play-out, feel free to comment. For the time-being, I’ll attempt to put together some variety of maths to explain what a reasonable prediction would be a possible unexpected drop in production.
photo courtesy of keith allison flickr
Tampa Bay Rays
Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers in 2009: Top 100 (11-30)
February 8, 2009 by kris · 2 Comments
Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009: Eleven to Thirty.
#11 John Lackey – SP – LA Angels
Bill James Prediction: 11-9, 141K, 3.81ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.25 K:9
2008: 12 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130K, 7.16 K:9, 3.25 K:BB
Bill James isn’t kind to John Lackey, and his predictions seem a bit low to me. Lackey has a good chance to raise his K:9 to at least 8 or 9 which combined with 200-220 IP should lead to a 200K season.
His other ratios have continued to improve throughout his career, so expecting a season of 8K per 9, and 2BB per nine seems about right. Along with a decent WHIP of 1.20ish, and a decent ERA.
He put up an ERA of 3.01 in 2007, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops it below 3.00 after a full year of recovery from his strained bicep issue of 2008.
This list is obviously more about value than actual draft position. John Lackey may not be drafted as the 11th best pitcher — but he’ll more than likely produce at this level. I’m not sure how long you can wait on Lackey as he looks to be bouncing up draft boards.
#12 Felix Hernandez – SP – SEA Mariners
Bill James Prediction: 11-12, 188K, 3.86ERA, 1.35WHIP, 8.25 K:9
2008: 9 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 175K, 7.85 K:9, 2.19 K:BB
I find it hard to believe that Hernandez will settle into a career WHIP of 1.35-1.40. In 2008, he walked 3.59 batters per nine innings which is up from 2.51 the year before.
Hernandez has some of the best stuff in the league, and last year was just a mess for the entire Seattle organization. It’s not unthinkable that Hernandez will drop his walks back down to the mid-to-low twos.
If Hernandez can stop walking batters, he’ll become the dominant pitcher that everyone’s been waiting for. A decrease in BB would probably result in a drop in ERA, and obviously WHIP.
An ERA of 3.35, and a WHIP of under 1.30 is a good possibility. I think this is the year Hernandez really puts it together and capitalizes on his unbelievable talent.
There’s obviously a good amount of risk here, but pitching at Safeco eliminates a chunk of that risk. It’s somewhat worrisome to see his Line Drive percentage rising over the past few years.
#13 Scott Kazmir – SP – TAM Rays
Bill James Prediction: 10-8, 177K, 3.80ERA, 1.35WHIP, 9.83 K:9
2008: 12 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 166K, 9.81 K:9, 2.37 K:BB
Once again, Kazmir comes with a bit of risk. Kazmir is a guy that can put up almost 10K per 9, along with a 1.25ish WHIP. However, expecting a full 220 innings from him is a bit of a reach.
Currently, I’m banking on about 200 IP from Kazmir in 2009. As with Lincecum is just scary to see such a small guy throw the ball 90+ MPH. Kazmir also has a dirty slider to go with his 92mph heat.
As with Sabathia, Halladay and Beckett, I’m somewhat worried about AL East Pitchers. The offenses are now so stacked that there isn’t a break in the schedule.
Who knows how many wins Kazmir will garner, but I expect a pretty solid 2009 season from Scott Kazmir.
#14 Zack Greinke – SP – KC Royals
Bill James Prediction: 12-10, 156K, 3.98ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.24 K:9
2008: 13 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 183K, 8.14 K:9, 3.27 K:BB
I’m about as high on Zack Greinke as one can get. Hell, I”ll finance Greinke’s depression meds if he ever falls back off the wagon.
When Greinke came into the league, he was supposed to be the next big thing — then he shat the bed, developed social anxiety, and just stopped caring.
Now, Greinke is back and fulfilling his potential. If anyone comes out of nowhere to post a 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 220 Ks — It’s Zack Greinke.
Greinke has four damn good pitches, with his fastball pushing 94-95ish on a good day. He has amazing control, and I have a pretty big man crush on him.
One of my favourite websites, The Hardball Times, has a great article on Greinke. Apparently I’m not the only one in love with Greinke.
Realistically, I’d be willing to rank Greinke as high as 9th on this list if he starts shooting up expert charts. I’d have absolutely no problem trading Zack Greinke for Josh Beckett straight up. He’ll give you a good return on investment, wherever he’s drafted.
#15 Cliff Lee – SP – CLE Indians
Bill James Prediction: 14-9, 146K, 3.90ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.77 K:9
2008: 22 W, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170K, 6.85 K:9, 5.00 K:BB
I’m not a Cliff Lee fan, but I’m not sure how much further I can drop him after his 2008 Cy Young season. Who knows what kind of win totals Lee will put up in 2009, but Cleveland still has a good bullpen that’s been bolstered by the acquisition of Kerry Wood.
I still think Lee is risky, though. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him drop a 4.00 ERA on his owners. Lee’s always put up solid WHIP numbers, but when you examine last year in detail it just doesn’t seem sustainable.
Lee allowed less than half a HR per 9 and dropped his BB per 9 down to 1.37 after averaging around 1+ HR/9 and somewhere between 2.5 and 4 walks per 9.
Cliff Lee may have a Cy Young award to his credit, but he’s as risky as anyone. Bill James has as good of a guestimate as anyone, so I’ll go with that. If Lee does put up those numbers though, he doesn’t deserve to be drafted this high. Lee’s probably going to get drafted too high based on name recognition anyways, so none of this even matters at 15th overall.
#16 Chad Billingsley – SP – LA Dodgers
Bill James Prediction: 12-9, 189K, 3.69ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.81 K:9
2008: 16 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 201K, 9.03 K:9, 2.49 K:BB
Chad Billingsley is another sexy strike out guy that carries at least a bit of risk with him. As with Felix Hernandez, Billingsley’s risk is minimized by the ballpark he pitches in.
Generally, I’d sacrafice a bit of talent for a pitcher-friendly park or a weak schedule. Billingsley has all three. The teams in the NL west aren’t great. Most of the parks out there are extreme pitchers parks (SD, LA, SF) and Billingsley has crazy potential.
On the other hand, Billinglsey has some serious control issues. Billingsley can barely keep his walks per nine on the right side of 4.00 let alone 3.00.
Billingsley isn’t going to have a stellar WHIP because of this, and you’re probably going to be stuck with a 1.30, if you’re lucky.
Billingsley does make up for it with his crazy K:9 numbers, striking out more than a batter an inning which keeps his K:BB ratio at a respectable 2.50.
Billinglsey should improve this year, and I’d imagine his main focus would be control.
#16 Ricky Nolasco – SP – FLA Marlins
Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 176K, 3.98ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.73 K:9
2008: 15 W, 3.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 186K, 8.06 K:9, 4.51 K:BB
I’m torn on Ricky Nolasco: There’s a lot of upside, but there’s a huge amount of risk.
There’s really no data to go off of, and if you draft him you’re more than likely in for a bumpy ride / sophomore slump. However, he put up great numbers, in what was essentially his first full season in the majors.
He put up such great ratios last year, and he pitches in such a pitchers park that he should be worth the cash-money. While I personally wouldn’t draft him in front of the next few guys he does have the potential to finish here with even the slightest increase in stats.
He’ll be much cheaper than the big name guys like Burnett, Lester, Vazquez and even Volquez.
At this point it becomes quite difficult to get high strikeout and low whip pitchers and his finish to the 2008 season is just too hard to look past.
#18 James Shields – SP – TAM Rays
Bill James Prediction: 14-10, 178K, 3.65ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.56 K:9
2008: 14 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160K, 6.70 K:9, 4.00 K:BB
Shields isn’t sexy and it’s iffy for him to pass 200K, but he should put up a stellar WHIP and ERA.
Some fantasy players end up falling in love with strikeouts and don’t pay nearly enough attention to a .10 decrease in WHIP or ERA. It’s easy to see the difference between 220 Ks and 190 but it’s a bit more difficult to wrap your head around the difference between a 1.35 and 1.19 WHIP.
It’ll be interesting to see whether 2008’s decrease in K rate is a permanent drop or just a temporary abberation. If Shields keeps his K:9 above 7.5 he’ll put up some great stats.
Shields stands out due to his gaudy K:BB ratio: 4.00K:BB is a great ratio for someone who strikes out as many batters as Shields does.
#19 Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – BOS Red Sox
Bill James Prediction: 12-8, 174K, 3.58ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.51 K:9
2008: 18 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154K, 8.27 K:9, 1.64 K:BB
Dice-K is the Tracy McGrady of fantasy baseball. Just as McGrady will put up 20pts and 10 rebounds on 6-23 shooting; Dice-K will go and put up a 2.90 ERA while walking 5 batters per nine innings.
Each and every one of Dice-K’s stats lead you to believe that he’s primed for an off-year. A walk rate of 5.05 per 9, a BABIP of .267, a Left on Base percentage of 80.6% and a HR/FB ratio of 6.1 percent.
However, you get the feeling that if Dice-K stops nibbling on the corners and just pitches using his vast reservoir he’ll be just fine. He probably wont repeat his stellar 2008 season, as he was incredibly lucky, but he should be fine.
All of this is probably pointless considering that some fool will draft Dice-K far earlier than warranted.
#20 Francisco Liriano – SP – MIN Twins
Bill James Prediction: 11-8, 171K, 3.62ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.27 K:9
2008: 6 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 57K, 7.93 K:9, 2.09 K:BB
I’m making a habit of ending each list with a massive injury risk.
Liriano missed 2007 with Tommy John surgery after an incredible 2006 in which he posted a 2.16 earned run average, a 1.00 walks/hits per innings pitched, and a remarkable 10.71 strikeouts per 9 in 28 games and 121 innings.
In 2008, not quite a full year removed from TJ surgery, Liriano started the season struggling mightily. After a minor league rehab stint, Liriano came back and showed flashes of his previous self.
There’s reason for concern as well as optimism with Liriano going forward. Last year, he shied away from using his devastating slider too much in order to protect his elbow. Now two years removed from surgery, he’ll hopefully be back to normal but you should keep an eye on his velocity and pitch selection to know for sure.
In 2005 and 2006 Liriano threw his fastball about 45% of the time at around 95 MPH. In his first year back, he threw it more (54%) at a lower velocity (91MPH)
To preserve his elbow he threw his slider 26% of the time at 84MPH in 2008 which is much less than the 37% and 87MPH he threw in the previous two years.
With Liriano, it comes down to velocity and pitch selection. You’ll be able to tell quite early in spring training whether or not he has it this year. Liriano is still a great pitcher when he throws his FB at 91 and his slider at 84 — but he’s not the 10+ K per nine guy, who’ll win you a fantasy league.
#21 Yovani Gallardo – SP – MIL Brewers
Bill James Prediction: 13-9, 141K, 3.61ERA, 1.30WHIP, 9.23 K:9
2008: 0 W, 1.88 ERA, 1.25WHIP, 20K, 7.50 K:9, 2.50 K:BB
Gallardo was primed for a break-out 2008 season, and then his ACL exploded while covering first base. Unlike just about every other sport, an ACL injury isn’t a career changing injury for a starting pitcher. Gallardo actually stayed in the game and recorded five outs after tearing his knee up.
Gallardo managed to come back from knee surgery to pitch seven innings in the 2008 playoffs.
With that said, Gallardo has buckets of talent and should come close to a strikeout per inning. He should be fully healthy by spring training, and more importantly regained complete faith in his knee. You’d have to imagine he’d probably improve on his K and BB numbers.
He’s one of the top young pitchers in the game and Bill James and CHONE have him at 9.30 K per nine, while MARCEL has him at 8K:9IP.
There’s obviously some risk here, as Gallardo has only pitched 134 innings in the show. With such a small sample size, anything could potentially happen. Gallardo’s been around for what seems like a while, but he’s still only going to be 23 when the season rolls around.
There is the potential that Gallardo starts to get too much fantasy hype rolling into the 2009 season. Anything higher than 18th or 19th is really just too high for Gallardo. He has the talent to be a top 10 pitcher, but he also comes with a bunch of risk. Liriano probably has a bit more talent, along with a bit more injury risk than Gallardo. Gallardo’s risk is probably composed of 25% injury and 75% lack of data.
#22 Ervin Santana – SP – LA Angels
Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 177K, 3.90ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.59 K:9
2008: 16 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.12WHIP, 214K, 8.79 K:9, 4.55 K:BB
Santana put up some great numbers last year, as he finally put everything together. It all seems to come down to the number of batters walked, and essentially BB:9.
Santana walked fewer batters in 2008 (47) than in 2007 (58) while pitching 70 more innings. His BB:9 went from 3.5 in 2007 to under 2.0 in 2008.
I’m not sure where this came from, other than the fact he was getting a 67% first strike, and getting batters to swing 32 percent of the time at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%).
It looks like Santana should be able to maintain his success, but he’s 26 yet somehow managed to add a good chunk of velocity across the board. I’m not certain how easy it is to add velocity after a certain age, but the usage of performance enhancing drugs definitely crossed my mind. Increased work ethic would probably be a better way to explain the increase in velocity, but its hard to ignore PEDs as a possibility in this day and age.
Just for the record, his Fastball the past 4 years: 93.4mph, 93.1mph, 92.2mph, 94.4mph.
His Slider, same period: 81.0mph, 80.9mph, 81.0mph, 83.9mph.
#23 Ben Sheets – SP – Free Agent
Bill James Prediction: 13-8, 159K, 3.39ERA, 1.15WHIP, 7.69 K:9
2008: 13 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.15WHIP, 158K, 7.17 K:9, 3.36 K:BB
SURGERY FOR MR SHEETS. CHECK BACK in the DOG DAYS!
I’m not sure where Ben Sheets is going to go, nor am I sure if he’ll stay healthy enough in 2009 to pitch 200 innings.
There’s a lot of possibilities with Ben Sheets though, and you’ll probably want to cash in on it. Sheets will more than likely go to a contender, and be assured at least a few wins throughout the season.
As with many of the elite pitchers, drafting Ben Sheets is essentially a referendum on whether or not he’ll stay healthy.
Since Sheet’s unbelievable 2004, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. His 2004 season was jaw dropping, as he posted a 2.70 ERA to go with 264 strikeouts. In 2008 he almost reached 200 innings, but his K numbers dropped drastically.
From a high of 10K per nine in 2004, Sheets has slowly declined to his 2008 total of 7.17K per nine. Sheets still has the talent to put up a K per IP, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the decline continues.
Hopefully Sheets can bounce his K rate up to at least 8K per 9, and he’ll be golden. Keep an eye on where Sheets goes this off-season.
#24 Matt Cain – SP – SF Giants
Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 192K, 3.57ERA, 1.30WHIP, 8.11 K:9
2008: 8 W, 3.76 ERA, 1.36WHIP, 186K, 7.69 K:9, 2.04 K:BB
Matt Cain started out 2008, terribly — awful, Painful.
He managed to salvage his season with some stellar 10, and 11 K performances. He still sprinkled in some stat lines of 5ER in 6IP, but all and all he ended the season very well.
Cain’s a power pitcher, and he’s built like a brick shit-house — so injuries aren’t a concern.
He pitches in the NL west and the Giants have a great stadium, and a half decent defense. Cain’s fastball tops out around 95, and he’ll throw 3 other pitches at you. All four of his pitches can be used as strike-out pitches.
Cain should keep his K:9 somewhere around 8, and pitch 200 IP easily.
Cain’s a pretty safe bet, with some upside which is hard to come by. Most of the pitchers with room for improvement and upside are risky as fuck. Cain’s going to give you some solid innings, and some great strikeout numbers.
#25 Erik Bedard – SP – SEA Mariners
Bill James Prediction: 5-5, 86K, 3.72ERA, 1.31WHIP, 8.7 K:9
2008: 6 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 73K, 8 K:9, 1.95 K:BB
What a 2008 Bedard had. An injury plagued, sporadically dominant, sporadically awful season had the Seattle media out for Bedard’s throat.
Bedard was traded for by Seattle idiot-GM, Bill Bavasi, who gave up roughly seven arms and two legs to get him ( Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler)
Bedard is one hell of a pitcher though: The question is whether or not he’ll actually want to pitch for Seattle. The media hates him, everyone in Seattle looks back at his acquisition as stooopid, and he’s injury plagued.
If Bedard wants to put up 220 innings and 200K’s, he will. Otherwise, he’s just going to sit out with every ache and pain and pitch less than 100 innings again.
The Mariners aren’t even sure what they want to do with Bedard going forward. There’s no way they can realistically get anything solid for him in a trade and unless he has a great year, he’s only going to garner Type-B compensation when he hits the Free Agent Market.
So, I think Bedard pitches crazy-awesome this year and leaves to further screw over the Mariners.
Go Canada.
#26 A.J. Burnett – SP – NY Yankees
Bill James Prediction: 14-11, 218K, 3.62ERA, 1.28WHIP, 8.76 K:9
2008: 18 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 231K, 9.35 K:9, 2.69 K:BB
A.J. Burnett is a top 12 pitcher if he stays healthy, which he more than likely do now that he’s a Yankee.
I’m a Blue Jays fan, and like all Jays fans; I think A.J Burnett is a douche-bag. Of course everyone understands that you gotta make the cheddar but A.J. never seemed to want to be in Toronto.
A.J. Burnett does have some of the nastiest stuff in the majors, and his curveball is argueably the best in the league. He’s been plagued with injuries throughout his entire career in Florida and Toronto.
At some point, I’ll move AJ up to his rightful place among the top 20 pitchers but I just have trouble believing A.J. will stay healthy let alone duplicate his stellar numbers from last year.
Hopefully Mr. Burnett crumbles under the pressure of New York, or decides to once again stop trying because he’s made his money.
#27 Javier Vazquez – SP – ATL Braves
Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 195K, 3.80ERA, 1.24WHIP, 8.20 K:9
2008: 12 W, 4.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 200K, 8.64 K:9, 3.28 K:BB
The Braves acquired Javier Vazquez late last year, when their talks with the Padres f or Jake Peavy fell through.
Vazquez is probably going to give you some of the best value in the 2009 draft. He’s got all the talent in the world, and has put up terrific ratios, but for some screwy reason always seems to put up 4.00+ ERA numbers.
With Vazquez’s return to the NL, you can assume that his already great 8.5ish K:9 is going to rise a wee lil’ bit. Vazquez striking out a batter an inning is not out of the realm of possibility.
Vazquez at 33 is starting to get up there in age, but over the last 4 years h is velocity hasn’t declined even a smidge. He’s still topping out on his fastball at around 94-95, slider 84mph, and curve about 74mph.
Last year Vazquez put up a stupid-silly .328 BABIP, and you’d have to assume that’d regress to career averages + the mean. Bill James properly predicts a BABIP of about .310.
Vazquez also does not get injured: The man keeps trucking along posting 200IP seasons.
All told, you should expect one hell of a season from Javier Vazquez and should draft him as high as 15th, if you’re risk-adverse.
#28 Edinson Volquez – SP – CIN Reds
Bill James Prediction: 11-11,191K, 4.08ERA, 1.41WHIP, 8.95 K:9
2008: 17 W, 3.24 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 206K, 9.45 K:9, 2.22 K:BB
Volquez has always had a solid repitoire of pitches, and a big boy fastball (94-95MPH). Last year came as a complete surprise however. Volquez had been regularly awful in Texas for the past 2 or 3 years.
He put up impressive 2008 pre-season numbers, and showed improved control — but pre-season numbers are generally deceitful.
Volquez pitches in the Great American Bandbox, and there’s no way in hell he’s going to put up similiar numbers. After the all-star break last year, Volquez put up a 4.60 ERA and gave up 9 HR which was a drastic increase from his first half stats.
He still managed to put up an incredibly respectable 3.24 ERA, but that’s going to balloon. His HR/FB ratio is definitely going to go up from 8, and his numbers will suffer.
#29 Carlos Zambrano – SP – CHI CUBS
Bill James Prediction: 13-9,163K, 3.56ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.48 K:9
2008: 14 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.29WHIP, 130K, 6.20 K:9, 1.81 K:BB
There’s no way Zambrano can live with himself after posting 6.20 strike outs per nine. In 2008, Zambrano became a bitch-ass soft-tosser rather than a burly 250lb power pitcher.
He decreased his BB / 9 down 3.43 after two years of 4.80 and 4.34BB per nine. While Zambrano’s increased control is reminiscent of his amazing 2004 & 2005 numbers, his strike out rate took a major hit.
Zambrano is pretty much useless if he’s not putting up at least 7.50K per 9, and I obviously expect a return to that. If Zambrano isn’t putting up at least a 2.00 K to BB ratio, he’s pretty much useless other than his contributions to Wins.
Wrigley is a half decent park to pitch in, until the winds start blowing out.
All and all, Zambrano is capable of putting up 200+ K’s and he’s got the frame to stay healthy. He’ll generally be around league average in WHIP, but he should be up solid win totals as Chicago is once again favoured to win the central.
#30 Jon Lester – SP – BOS Red Sox
Bill James Prediction: 12-11,168K, 4.02ERA, 1.40WHIP, 7.13 K:9
2008: 16 W, 3.21 ERA, 1.27WHIP, 152K, 6.50 K:9, 2.30 K:BB
If Lester puts up similiar numbers to last year, there’s a couple pitchers that make more sense at this spot (Oswalt, Lilly, Garza).
However, Lester is a young guy who’s bound to improve. While Lester’s K per 9 decreased in 2008, he improved his control quite a bit, lowering his BB:9 from 4.43 to 2.82.
Pitching for Boston affords Lester a good chance at 20 Wins, and he’s Boston’s only reliable lefty. Last year, Lester was probably Boston’s best pitcher and while his dominance doesn’t transfer particularly well into the fantasy world; he’s primed for a break out year.
Lester’s a fairly safe bet, with decent potential. 200 strikeouts is probably a bit of a reach for Lester, but 18 Wins, 1.25WHIP, 3.25 ERA and 180K’s isn’t unreasonable. Lester will help you in all categories without hurting you in any one category.
Photo Of Liriano: Aturkus / Flickr
