Steals
Tony Sanchez: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects
BDPP76, Tony Sanchez of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bowman Chrome Autograph
Buy or Sell: Sell
Projected Value: Medium
Sanchez is an interesting prospect, but there are a couple of things working against the value of his cards in the long-term.
First off, Sanchez looks to be staying put in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future. New Pirates General Manager, Neal Huntington, seems to be on the right track to building a mid-market franchise with budget constraints. Huntington probably won’t be around to see the majority of his maneuvers come to fruition, but the groundwork has been laid.
The move to draft Sanchez with the fourth overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft was a bit questionable, but you have to admire a GM that puts his faith into the hands of the Scouting Director and takes a leap of faith.
Unfortunately, Sanchez’s early draft slot and high signing bonus will lead to an early overvaluation of his cards.
Sanchez has all of the tools to be an above average catcher in the big leagues, but his name shouldn’t be amongst the highlights of any checklist. He had a terrific seasons in Low-A, where he showcased his potential.
Sanchez could make a claim for a promotion to Double-A early in the season. He’s not afraid to take a walk, a skill that’s translated well from BC, and the power’s starting to come around.
You’re going to have issues making money of Sanchez, though. People like to overpay for early first rounders and even if Sanchez hits the show before 2012, his cards will have a hard time standing up to fourth-overall selection prices.
Steals
2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects, Ranked and Rated.
November 29, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
This is going to be a headache, but with the economy down and the checklist looking a weak, I’m going to do the unthinkable: I’m going to share not only detailed reports, but also project the market values and steals for this year’s Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects baseball cards.
For the majority of fantasy baseball players outside of the insanely deep leagues, this’ll probably be worthless evaluation. For the card collectors that like to purchase a card for ten dollars and re-sell it for 50, this might be useful.
Here’s the Checklist (courtesy of CardboardConnection.com.) It’s a preliminary checklist, but I’ll update it as new information becomes available.
| Card Number | Player | Additional Notes |
|---|---|---|
| BDPP1 | Tanner Bushue | |
| BDPP2 | Billy Hamilton | |
| BDPP3 | Enrique Hernandez | |
| BDPP4 | Virgil Hill | |
| BDPP5 | Josh Hodges | |
| BDPP6 | Michael Taylor | |
| BDPP7 | Nick Lockwood | |
| BDPP8 | Jobduan Morales | |
| BDPP9 | Anthony Morris | |
| BDPP10 | Telvin Nash | |
| BDPP11 | Brooks Pounders | |
| BDPP12 | Kyle Rose | |
| BDPP13 | Seth Schwindenhammer | |
| BDPP14 | Patrick Lehman | |
| BDPP15 | Mathew Weaver | |
| BDPP16 | Brian Dozier | |
| BDPP17 | Sequoyah Stonecipher | |
| BDPP18 | Shannon Wilkerson | |
| BDPP19 | Justin Bloxom | |
| BDPP20 | Jamie Johnson | |
| BDPP21 | Christopher Lovett | |
| BDPP22 | Bryson Namba | |
| BDPP23 | Aaron Northcraft | |
| BDPP24 | Benjamin Carlson | |
| BDPP25 | Brock Holt | |
| BDPP26 | Ben Orloff | |
| BDPP27 | Christopher Sedon | |
| BDPP28 | Erik Castro | |
| BDPP29 | Ryan Sasaki | |
| BDPP30 | Cory Burns | |
| BDPP31 | Chris Wade | |
| BDPP32 | David Washington | |
| BDPP33 | Naoya Washiya | |
| BDPP34 | Brandt Walker | |
| BDPP35 | Jordan Henry | |
| BDPP36 | Austin Adams | |
| BDPP37 | Andrew Bellatti | |
| BDPP38 | Paul Applebee | |
| BDPP39 | Robert Stock | |
| BDPP40 | Michael Flacco | |
| BDPP41 | Johnathan Meyer | |
| BDPP42 | Cody Rogers | |
| BDPP43 | Matt Heidenreich | |
| BDPP44 | David Holmberg | |
| BDPP45 | Mycal Jones | |
| BDPP46 | David Hale | |
| BDPP47 | Dusty Odenbach | |
| BDPP48 | Robert Hefflinger | |
| BDPP49 | Buddy Baumann | |
| BDPP50 | Thomas Berryhill | |
| BDPP51 | Darrell Ceciliani | |
| BDPP52 | Derek McCallum | |
| BDPP53 | Taylor Freeman | |
| BDPP54 | Tyler Townsend | |
| BDPP55 | Tobias Streich | |
| BDPP56 | Ryan Jackson | |
| BDPP57 | Chris Herrmann | |
| BDPP58 | Robert Shields | |
| BDPP59 | Devin Fuller | |
| BDPP60 | Brad Stillings | |
| BDPP61 | Ryan Goins | |
| BDPP62 | Chase Austin | |
| BDPP63 | Brett Nommensen | |
| BDPP64 | Egan Smith | |
| BDPP65 | Daniel Mahoney | |
| BDPP66 | Darin Gorski | |
| BDPP67 | Dustin Dickerson | |
| BDPP68 | Victor Black | |
| BDPP69 | Dallas Keuchel | |
| BDPP70 | Nate Baker | |
| BDPP71 | Jeremy Barnes | |
| BDPP72 | Brian Moran | |
| BDPP73 | Nicholas Hernandez | |
| BDPP74 | Lance Durham | |
| BDPP75 | Adam Buschini | |
| BDPP76 | Tony Sanchez | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP77 | Eric Arnett | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP78 | Tim Wheeler | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP79 | Matt Hobgood | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP80 | Matt Bashore | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP81 | Randal Grichuk | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP82 | A.J. Pollock | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP83 | Reymond Fuentes | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP84 | Jiovanni Mier | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP85 | Chad Jenkins | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP86 | Zack Wheeler | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP87 | Mike Minor | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP88 | Jared Mitchell | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP89 | Mike Trout | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP90 | Alex White | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP91 | Bobby Borchering | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP92 | Chad James | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP93 | Tyler Matzek | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP94 | Max Stassi | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP95 | Drew Storen | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP96 | Brad Boxberger | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
| BDPP97 | Mike Leake | Bowman Chrome Autograph |
Steals
Daniel Murphy – OF, 2B, 3B – New York Mets
February 7, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
The Hype Machine loves New York and while it prefers the Yankees, the Mets will suffice. Daniel Murphy selected in the 13th round of the 2006 draft put up solid stats after an early August 2008 call-up.
While Murphy isn’t quite the prospect that Fernando Martinez is, he’ll be the one to break camp with a starting gig. He’ll be battling former Baseball America top-prospect Jeremy Reed, veteran journey-man Fernando Tatis and everyone’s favorite oxymoron Angel Pagan for at-bats in the left field position.
Daniel Murphy, welcome to the hype-machine.
| Year | Team | G | AB | R | H | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | CS | OBP | SLG | AVG |
| 2008 | NYM | 49 | 131 | 24 | 41 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 2 | .397 | .473 | .313 |
| Total | 49 | 131 | 24 | 41 | 2 | 17 | 18 | 28 | 0 | 2 | .397 | .473 | .313 |
It’s pretty clear that we’re dealing with a tiny sample size, when examining Murphy’s professional career. So, to the minors we go:
| Year | Age | Team | Level | G | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | SB | CS | BB | SO | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
| 2004 | 19 | JCK | NCAA | 32 | 77 | 12 | 29 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 13 | 0.377 | 0.455 | 0.506 | 0.961 |
| 2005 | 20 | JCK | NCAA | 54 | 219 | 35 | 72 | 12 | 2 | 2 | 31 | 11 | 3 | 11 | 23 | 0.329 | 0.381 | 0.429 | 0.81 |
| 2006 | 21 | JCK | NCAA | 57 | 221 | 54 | 88 | 10 | 1 | 6 | 55 | 15 | 7 | 34 | 13 | 0.398 | 0.47 | 0.534 | 1.004 |
| 21 | KIN | Rk | 9 | 33 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.273 | 0.351 | 0.455 | 0.806 | |
| 21 | MET | Rk | 8 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.056 | 0.227 | 0.056 | 0.283 | |
| 21 | BRO | A- | 8 | 29 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.241 | 0.324 | 0.276 | 0.6 | |
| 2007 | 22 | ST. | A+ | 135 | 502 | 68 | 143 | 34 | 3 | 11 | 78 | 6 | 3 | 42 | 61 | 0.285 | 0.338 | 0.43 | 0.768 |
| 2008 | 23 | BRO | A- | 3 | 14 | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 1 |
| 23 | BIN | AA | 95 | 357 | 56 | 110 | 26 | 1 | 13 | 67 | 14 | 5 | 39 | 46 | 0.308 | 0.374 | 0.496 | 0.87 | |
| 23 | NO | AAA | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.4 | 0.25 | 0.65 |
An impressive 2007 gave way to a spectacular 2008, which lead to an incredible MLB-rookie debut. Daniel Murphy probably wont continue raking at a .340+ clip as he did in the Minors, or even a .313 rate that he posted in the first 49 MLB games.
There’s no reason to believe that Daniel Murphy can’t at least hit between .290 and .300 over the course of a season while posting a .360 OBP.
In 2008, Murphy posted a stupid-silly BABIP of .386 which is bound to come down. This is why the stat-heads always warn you about small sample-sizes. Of course Murphy’s batting average will drop as his BABIP drops, but his 33% LD rate seems like a half-decent indicator of a higher than average BABIP for the rest of Murphy’s career.
The problem is whether or not he’ll stick at the big-league level. Murphy can competantly play the outfield, third-base, and first-base. Last year the second base experiment began, and while he’s not naturally suited to the position, it’s one of the few places on the diamond where he has an above average bat.
If Murphy sticks at 2nd base going into 2009, he’ll be a steal. Whether or not he bats in the two-hole, or in the 7th or 8th spot will also make a difference.
Murphy’s got double-digit HR potential, and should post a solid average. Even if he hits at the end of a decent Mets line-up the R & RBI should be fine.
Bill James’ prediction model has Murphy at 74 RBI / 73 RUN / 14 HR / 14 SB / .296 AVG.
This looks pretty rosterable to me.
Murphy also had a solid Arizona Fall league season posting a .397 AVG / .487 OBP / .619 SLG
The Verdict: Murphy’s going to be a great late round flyer in the outfield, with the upside of transforming that power into a starting second base gig. As long as Murphy finds a way to play, he’ll be worth rostering in deeper leagues. Feed the machine, it feasts on doubles hitters in high-octane offenses.
