I’ve created the list of the best keepers for your dynasty league, and now it’s time to give a little follow-up as to why they’ve fallen into their corresponding places.

When ranking players, I generally analyze them in this order:

1. Big League Experience
2. Talent with heavy emphasis on K-Rate & BB-Rate for younger players.
3. Opportunity / Age
4. Ball Park
5. Random Tie-Breaker Determined By Gut Feeling

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Tim Lincecum – SF Giants – 24 - Perfect combination of all of the criteria. His slight frame may lead to injuries at some point however.
2. Cole Hamels – PHI Phillies – 25 – I favour lefties, they tend to stick around for a while.  Injury concerns are mounting, but he’s still entrenched at number 2.
3. C.C. Sabathia – NY Yankees – 28 – Sabathia seems like he’s older than 28.  Motivation is the only question with Sabathia.  Arrival in NY will up his W totals.
4. Johan Santana – NY Mets – 30 – Best pitcher in the game, but he’s starting to get up there in age.
5. Felix Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22 – He’s been around forever, but he’s still as young as they come.  He’ll eventually come around.
6. Chad Billingsley – LA Dodgers – 24 – Massive K potential, in a solid park with a solid line-up all but guarenteed year in and year out.
7. Jake Peavy – SD Padres – 27 – Still has five Ace-like years left in him, and a couple more top-20 pitchers-type years left.
8. Dan Haren – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Coming into his own since his arrival in the desert.
9. Zack Greinke – KC Royals – 25 – Maybe I have him a bit high, but everything’s in place for Greinke to be good for a long, long time.
10. Yovani Gallardo – MIL Brewers – 23 – Injured last year, but it wasn’t his arm.  No reason to doubt that Gallardo will fill in perfectly for the oft-injured Ben Sheets.

11. Scott Kazmir – TB Rays – 25 - An Injury waiting to happen, but he’s good, young and a lefty.
12. Clayton Kershaw – LA Dodgers – 21 – Maybe Price belongs here, but right now I’m liking Kershaw a bit more.
13. Francisco Liriano – MIN Twins – 25 - Liriano has all the talent in the world, but if the Twins limit the use of his slider to prolong his career– he’s ranked too high here.
14. Josh Beckett – BOS Red Sox – 28 - Injuries have plagued his career, and those gosh-darn blisters probably extended his career by a year or two.
15. James Shields – TAM Rays – 27 - Shields has really blossomed, and this is the year we’ll see if he’s f’real.  He posts amazing ratios, and pitches for a terrific Tampa team.
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka – BOS Red Sox – 28 -  Sooner or later those innings are going to catch up to him.  As Dice-K’s skill-set declines, he’ll become a better pitcher that relies on his stuff rather than nibbling on every god-forsaken corner.
17. Scott Baker – MIN Twins – 27 – Baker’s had the potential, and it looks like Minnesota knows what to do with these young guys.
18. Jon Lester – BOS Red Sox – 25 -  I’m still not completely sold on the big lefty.
19. Joba Chamberlain – NY Yankees – 23 – Who knows how the Yankees will end up using him in the long-run.
20. David Price – TAM Rays - Yup, 20th overall.  Give me more than 19 professional starts, and I’ll buy the hype.  If you’re a risk taker, Price is top-10 material, easily.

21. John Lackey – LAA Angels – 30 – I expect improvement over the next couple years from Lackey, even if he’s already 30.
22. Brandon Webb – ARI Diamondbacks – 29 – Sinker baller will continue to post amazing win totals and ratios.
23. Roy Halladay – TOR Jays – 31 – Probably still has a few great years left in him.
24. Max Scherzer – ARI Diamondbacks – 24 - I like Mad-Max, and the tools are there.  He needs to work on his control, a smidgen though.
25. Rich Harden – CHI Cubs – 27 – Top-5 Stuff, Top-1 Injury Risk.
26. Edison Volquez – CIN Reds – 25 – Control problems, and The Great American Ballpark will make for a very bumpy ride.
27. Clay Bucholz – BOS Red Sox – 24 – One of the best young pitchers in the game.  The only question is when he’ll get the opportunity to showcase his stuff without 3 guys breathing down his neck. Next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bucholz cracks the top 10.
28. John Danks – CHI White Sox – 23 – Unheralded on the south side. Danks is a top-tier talent with great stuff.  One of the better risk/reward type guys at this stage.
29. Kevin Slowey – MIN Twins – 24 – Ratio’s keep him a viable as a top-flight fantasy pitcher.
30. Adam Wainwright – STL Cardinals – 27 – If Wainwright doesn’t dominate this year, it’s time to give up hoping he’ll be a top 10-15 pitcher.

31. Ricky Nolasco – FLA Marlins – 26 – Young and talented, just like every other member of that Marlins staff.  His second half last year was ridiculous.
32. Roy Oswalt – HOU Astros – 31 – Not much to say here.  Expect a steady decline from here on out.
33. Matt Garza – TAM Rays – 25 – Showed his worth in last year’s playoff push.  Great at spotting the fastball.
34. Ervin Santana – LA Angels – 26 – Added to his repertoire last year, and he’s still young enough to continue improving.  Expect a solid career out of this youngin’
35. Matt Cain – SF Giants – 24 – Life is going to be easier for this former top-prospect. Living in Lincecum’s shadow will allow him to excel.
36. Cliff Lee – CLE Indians – 30 – I am not, in any way, ever going to be a fan of Cliff Lee.
37. Brandon Morrow – SEA Mariners – 24 - High Risk, High Reward.  I don’t think he takes off until after the all-star break. He can throw that speed ball by ya, and make you look like a fool, boy.
38. Fausto Carmona – CLE Indians – 25 – He’s flying up draft-boards again this year. This sinkerballer has a lot left in the tank, even if the K’s will never be elite.
39. Carlos Zambrano – CHI Cubs – 27??? – I don’t believe he’s 27.  His control has abandon him.  If Zambrano can get those WHIP numbers down, he’ll elevate his game big time.
40. Erik Bedard – SEA Mariners – 30 – Bedard was a top 5 pitcher 2 years ago, but injury robbed him of his 2008 season.  Still lots of potential here.

41. A.J. Burnett – NY Yankees – 32 – Burnett was the hardest pitcher on this entire list to gauge.  He’s a talented strike-out pitcher, and he’s got a great line-up behind him.  He’s also a massive injury risk, and 32 years old.
42. Justin Verlander – DET Tigers – 26 – He’ll regain it, the question is when.
43. Andrew Miller – FLA Marlins - 23 – I’m huge on Andrew Miller and he’ll dominate as soon as this year.
44. Johnny Cueto – CIN Reds – 23 – Solid pitching prospect going into last year. He looked great in spurts.  I’m worried about injuries in the future.
45. Jared Weaver – LA Angels – 26 - Weaver’s a very solid pitcher, with lots of room to improve.  He’ll be one of the biggest surprises this year.
46. Ubaldo Jiminez – COL Rockies – 25 – If he can get out of Colorado, he’ll be golden.  As it stands, he’s just a great young pitcher with a tremendous fastball.
47. Josh Johnson – FLA Marlins – 25 – Solid as a Rock, but not as sexy as Miller.
48. Brett Myers – PHI Phillies – 28 – If he can put it together, he’ll be solid for at least 5 more years.  Myers is a roller coaster.
49. Chris Volstad – FLA Marlins – 22 - Young Marlins pitchers dominate this board, and Volstads experience last year bumps him above some prospects with better stuff.
50. Jeremy Guthrie – BAL Orioles – 29 – Finally putting it all together.  Should be a break-out guy in 2009.

51. Jair Jurrjens – ATL Braves – 23 – Jurrjens is a solid but safe bet if you’re going for a youngster you’d like to keep around for a while.
52. Chien-Ming Wang – NY Yankees – 29 – Lots of Groundballs, and Lots of Wins.  His lack of strike-outs really hurt him.
53. Phil Hughes – NY Yankees – 22 – Hughes has looked awful in the bigs, but believe it or not he’s one of the best young pitchers out there.
54. Ben Sheets – FA – 30 – Maybe you’ll get 4 more injury plagued years from Sheets? Other than Burnett, Sheets was the next hardest to place.
55. Chris Young – SD Padres – 29 - I love Chris Young this year, next year, and the year after that.  He puts up great ratios in PETCO and strikes out more than his fair share.
56. Mike Pelfrey – NY Mets – 25 – Young Met should finally live up to the hype this year.
57. Brett Anderson – OAK Athletics – 21 – Anderson ranks first among prospects with no big league experience at 57th overall! 57th!  Anderson and the next 5 or so prospects have all of the talent in the world, but I’m not risking my future on more than one of them until I see something tangible.
58. John Maine – NY Mets – 27 - The Maine Event should turn things around this year.
59. Javier Vazquez – ATL Braves – 32 – I’d say you have about 3 more years of very good K numbers.
60. Aaron Harang – CIN Reds – 30 - Harang was awful last year, and he’s a better pitcher than his rank would indicate.

61. Jesse Litsch – TOR Jays – 24 – I don’t like Litsch and think he’s a massive injury risk.  Ever since the cut-fastball invaded the Blue Jays camp, pitchers have went down one after the next.
62. Oliver Perez – NY Mets – 27 - Entering his prime, still has room to improve.  Probably will never be that 200K guy Pittsburgh had.
63. Trevor Cahill – OAK Athletics – 21 – Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson both top Tommy Hanson due to Oaklands park.  They also are both vying for a roster spot this year, while Hanson has already been sent down.
64. Paul Maholm – PIT Pirates – 26 – He’s quietly putting together a very solid career.
65. Manny Parra – MIL Brewers – 26 - Talents there, but where’s the control?
66. Dustin McGowan – TOR Jays – 27 - Out for a few months, but he’s a good bet to pitch for  a while longer
67. Tommy Hanson – ATL Braves – 22 - Hanson has dominated the AFL and ST, but he won’t start the year for Atlanta.  Him and Anderson are neck and neck for the best pitching prospect.
68. Jonathan Sanchez – SF Giants – 26 - Control, Control, Control — Get some.  Great K’s from Sanchez, though.
69. Joe Saunders – LA Angels – 27 - Pretty gosh darn boring at this point.
70. Ryan Dempster – CHI Cubs – 31 - Getting up there in age, but should be a steady source of K’s

71. Neftali Feliz – TEX Rangers – 20 – I hadn’t the slightest clue as to where I should put Feliz.  Who knows where he starts the year, and who knows where he finishes it.  He’s got a ridiculous arm, but needs to work on the whole not walking batters thing.  Can he flourish in Texas though?  If you have roster room, Feliz makes for one of the more interesting keepers.
72. Armando Galarraga – DET Tigers – 27 - Boring filler entering his prime.  Some Upside here.
73. Gil Meche – KC Royals – 30 – Boring filler leaving his prime, some upside here too!
74. Justin Duchscherer – OAK Athletics – 31 - Injured filler somewhere around his prime.  Duchscherer’s injuries really put me off, and I wouldn’t touch him in a keeper league.
75. Wandy Rodriguez – HOU Astros – 30 - Great K potential and could be a late bloomer.
76. Shaun Marcum – TOR Jays – 27 - Great pitcher who’ll miss all of 2009 with injury.
77. Ted Lilly – CHI Cubs – 33 - You can probably expect a year or two before the tires fall off — at least he’s left handed.
78. Carlos Carrasco – PHI Phillies – 22 - Young and talented, and might just have a job as the Phillies 5th starter.
79. Gavin Floyd – CHI White Sox – 26 - Once, a top prospect. Later, a bust. Currently, somewhere inbetween.
80. Nick Adenhart – LA Angels – 22 - Adenhart makes for an interesting pick.  He’s not quite top-tier talent, but he’s close.  He pitched some last year, and looks to have a job this year.

Finally, the last 50 pitchers are just listed with the interesting ones bolded.

81. Ian Snell – PIT Pirates – 27
82. Derek Lowe – ATL Braves – 35
83. Chris Tillman – BAL Orioles – 22
84. Franklin Morales – COL Rockies – 23
85. Scott Lewis – CLE Indians – 25
86. Tim Hudson – ATL Braves – 33
87. David Purcey – TOR Jays – 27
88. Rick Porcello – DET Tigers – 20
89. Brian Matusz – BAL Orioles – 22
90. Derek Holland – TEX Rangers – 22

91. Jordan Zimmermann – WAS Nationals – 22
92. John Lannan – WAS Nationals – 24
93. Anibal Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25
94. Jon Garland – ARI Diamondbacks – 29
95. Carlos Villanueva – MIL Brewers – 25
96. Gio Gonzalez – OAK Athletics – 23
97. Sean Gallagher – OAK Athletics – 23
98. Andy Sonnanstine – TAM Rays – 26
99. James McDonald – LA Dodgers – 24
100. Jeremy Bonderman – DET Tigers – 26

101. Wade Davis – TAM Rays – 23
102. Jake McGee – TAM Rays – 22
103. Hiroki Kuroda – LA Dodgers – 34
104. Adam Miller – CLE Indians – 24
105. Edwin Jackson – DET Tigers – 25
106. Randy Johnson – SF Giants – 45
107. Collin Balester – WAS Nationals – 22
108. Homer Bailey – CIN Reds – 22
109. Justin Masterson – BOS Red Sox – 24
110. Ian Kennedy – NY Yankees – 23

111. Nick Blackburn – MIN Twins – 27
112. Brad Penny – BOS Red Sox – 30
113. Michael Bowden – BOS Red Sox – 22
114. Jarrod Parker – ARI Diamondbacks – 19
115. Aaron Cook – COL Rockies – 30
116. Jeremy Hellickson – TB Rays
117. Andy Pettitte – NY Yankees – 36
118. Jonathon Niese – NY Mets – 22
119. Josh Outman – OAK Athletics – 24
120. Jeff Samardzija – CHI Cubs – 24

121. Mark Buehrle – CHI White Sox – 30
122. Bronson Arroyo – CIN Reds – 32
123. Jeff Francis – COL Rockies – 27
124. Micah Owings – CIN Reds – 26
125. David Bush – MIL Brewers – 29
126. Randy Wolf – LA Dodgers – 32
127. David Huff – CLE Indians – 23
128. Radhames Liz – BAL Orioles – 25
129. Gaby Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22
130. Todd Wellemyer – STL Cardinals – 30
131. John Smoltz – BOS Red Sox – 41
132. Clayton Richard – CHW – 25
133. Kelvim Escobar – LAA – 32
134. Casey Janssen – TOR Jays – 27
135. Chris Carpenter – STL Cardinals – 33
136. Scott Richmond – TOR Jays – 29
137. Koji Uehara – BAL Orioles – 33
138. Kenshin Kawakami – ATL Braves – 33

…and done.  The pitchers are the end tend to be filler, with the possibility of contributing for another year or two or youngins who have a shot of falling flat on their face and becoming end of rotation-type guys.

Feel free to comment and tell me why your guy is ranked too low.

Determining Burnett’s fantasy value heading into 2009 is akin to flipping a coin, with heads being a healthy 200IP and tails being less than 100IP.

Now, a brief A.J. Burnett time-line (Courtesy of Canada’s Third-Most Awesome Sports Channel):

Burnett -- Phillustration Flickr

Dec 18, 2008: Signed as a free agent by the New York Yankees to a five-year contract.
Nov 5, 2008: Filed for free agency.
Sep 25, 2007: Missed 1 game (personal reasons).
Sep 24, 2007: Personal reasons, day-to-day.
Aug 12, 2007: Missed 35 games (right shoulder injury).
Jul 1, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 29).
Jun 28, 2007: Missed 13 games (right shoulder injury).
Jun 19, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 13th).
Jun 13, 2007: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 22, 2006: Missed 69 games (right elbow injury).
May 29, 2006: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow injury).
Apr 22, 2006: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Apr 15, 2006: Missed 10 games (elbow injury).
Apr 1, 2006: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Dec 6, 2005: Signed as a free agent by the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year contract.
Oct 27, 2005: Filed for free agency.
May 31, 2005: Missed 9 games (elbow injury).
May 23, 2005: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jan 17, 2005: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Oct 3, 2004: Missed 19 game (elbow injury).
Sep 19, 2004: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jun 3, 2004: Missed 53 games (elbow surgery).
May 12, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (elbow surgery).
Apr 3, 2004: Elbow surgery, 15-day DL.
Mar 28, 2004: Elbow surgery, sidelined indefinitely.
Dec 20, 2003: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Nov 19, 2003: Activated from the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
Oct 25, 2003: Missed 16 playoff and 139 regular season games (right elbow inflammation).
Apr 26, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL.
Apr 9, 2003: Missed 8 games (right elbow inflammation).
Mar 29, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 21).
Sep 14, 2002: Missed 24 games (right elbow injury).
Aug 19, 2002: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
May 6, 2002: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
May 7, 2001: Missed 29 games (broken right foot).
Apr 24, 2001: Sent on rehabilitation assignment to Brevard County (A).
Mar 31, 2001: Broken right foot, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 23).

When You sign a 5yr-82.5 million dollar contract, you get tossed into the hype machine. There’s a nice post over at fangraphs.com explaining how Burnett’s contract plays out, and their general players current value vs. how much they’re being paid.

So whats the deal with Burnett when it comes to his fantasy value?

If he pitches 200 IP, you’re getting at least 200K, a sub-1.25 WHIP, and round about 3.50ish ERA.  This is pretty much the second tier of starting pitchers. Very few pitchers can get to 230-240 strike-outs in a season, and a healthy Burnett is one of them.  You’re basically getting Edison Volquez’s numbers with a better WHIP, or Brandon Webb’s numbers with a few more K’s.

He’s not quite in the class of Lincecum and Santana but his high K-Rate, really makes up for the slight downgrade in the ERA & WHIP from all-stars like Hamels, and Peavy.

Burnett is now also pitching for the best offense money can buy, which means if he goes 6 — he’ll get a W.  Twenty wins seems more like a basement than a ceiling with that line-up behind him.

STATS: 9.5K per 9, 3.50 BB per 9, 2.5ish K:BB.

So if Burnett goes 230 IP, he’s a top-5 or 6 Pitcher.  Now, please factor in the risk. Burnett’s had elbow issues his entire career, and that probably isn’t going to change.  As ridiculous as the A-Rod speech on wanting to prove to the world that he was indeed worth 200 Million dollars was, it does hold true.

Burnett and Sabathia are going to have to prove their worth.  While this contains no statistical data at all, and is nothing more than a gut feeling; Burnett is going to be using his insane-uncle-charlie quite a bit.  He’ll be throwing hard (is 100mph still a possibility?), and if anything goes wrong he’ll start forcing it.

Obviously, no-one is going to draft Burnett based on 220 IP — So you’ve got to decide upon a number that you feel is reasonable.  Two 15-day DL stints seems about right to me. There’s nothing to Burnett to analyze other than his injuries.  When he’s healthy he puts up devastating numbers, and while his control could use some work — most fantasy players can live with a 1.25-WHIP.

When Burnett is off, Burnett’s got control issues but Burnett’s normally only off when he’s tweaked his elbow. He’s shown he can pitch through minor inflammation in contract years, so the question becomes whether or not he’ll pitch through injuries in New York.

Bank on 160IP from Burnett, plus 50-60 IP from your fantasy league’s replacement level player. If you assume a 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 5-6 K / 9 for your replacement level player you’re getting pretty much Burnett’s 160 strikeout’s plus about 40 from your replacement level guy.  So 220 IP nets you 200 K.

I arrived at these numbers arbitrarily, but in a normal league a 4.50 ERA,  1.40 WHIP and 5-6K per 9 seems fair.

160 IP nets you 62 Earned Runs at a 3.50 ERA, and combine that with 30 ER in 60 IP (4.50ERA) and you’ve got 92 ER in 220 IP. Burnett’s probable 3.50 ERA becomes a 3.76 ERA when you combine it with your 60 IP from a replacement level pitcher.

Burnett’s WHIP will be the most volatile, but I’ll consider the ceiling of 1.30ish + 60IP of 1.40ish. Burnett has 208 BB+H in 160IP, and Replacement has 84 BB+H in 60 IP.  Combined that’s 292 BB+H in 220 IP = 1.33 WHIP.

Our combined AJ Burnett (160IP) + Player X (60 IP) stats are as follows:

3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 200K

The only thing I can add as a native-Torontonian, is that it wont be a contract year for another 5 years.

USEFUL ARTICLE HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/aj-to-ny

and HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/aj-burnett-to-the-yankees

Lovely Elbow Shot courtesy of Larry Page / Flickr

At 6’5 / 218lbs with good body control, Samardzija should be a solid jump-ball artist and red-zone target at the next level. Samardzija is your prototypical possession receiver, and gets a solid release off the line.

..wait, Samardzija picked the Cubs instead of the NFL? I guess that makes sense when you run a 4.62 / 40 Yd Dash.  It worked out for Drew Henson, right?

Stat time!

SKILLS

So, first off what the hell happened when Samardzija hit AAA last year? For some reason Jeff decided to become a solid pro-prospect and put up respectable K/9 numbers after a couple seasons of mediocre numbers.

The K/9 numbers hung in there at almost a strike per inning, once he arrived in the bigs.  It’s pretty tough to judge Samardzija based on 70 Innings Pitched between AAA and the MLB.

The 1.40 WHIP and 4.88 BB per 9 aren’t pretty stats, and maybe he’ll improve on them, or maybe he’ll continue making power-pitching rookie  mistakes.

However, a big HOWEVER, Samardzija has the tools to work with:

95 MPH fastball, 83MPH slider, 85MPH change-up, and a 85mph Splitter.

Samardzija also has a 2-seam fastball, which like his 4 seamer, has a good amount of action on it. It may be Samardzija’s addition of the Splitter that’s brought him up to the bigs, and increased his K-Rate.

That’s what gets my vote anyways. I’d like to look into the PFX data on his change-up, but that’ll have to wait. He doesn’t appear to hide the change-up at all, and a full off-season and camp should help with that.

Samardzija has the stuff to excel, it’s just a matter of controlling it which will take time.  I’d like to see him spend a full year in Triple-A, but he’s in that in-between phase.

Opportunity

According to the Chicago Tribune, Samardzija at least hopes to be the Cubs 5th starter. So, at least that’s good.  Hopes and dreams make for all-stars!

Unfortunately, the only shot that Samardzija has to start is nabbing that number 5 spot. The Cubs rotation is pretty much set in stone, at least until an injury:

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Rich Harden
3. Ryan Dempster
4. Ted Lilly

So, who’s Samardzija battling with for that number five spot?

1. Sean Marshall
2. Aaron Heilman
3. Chad Gaudin
4. Angel Guzman
5. Kevin Hart
6. FREE AGENT / TRADE

Starting with Guzman and Hart, Samardzija has probably a better shot than either of those two.  Everyone’s inexperienced, and Samardzija has got the inside track. Guzman used to be considered front-line starter material, so keep an eye out.

Heilman and Gaudin, are also probably best stuck into the same group.  Heilman went from being Seattle’s potential closer to a Chicago Cub without a job. I’m not quite sure why the Cubs would have traded Olson for Heilman if they planned on filling that SP #5 with them. To me, it seems like it’s almost guarenteed that Heilman is going to be traded again — or — work in a relief role.

Gaudin has started before, and he’s good in spurts.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gaudin land the spot starter role, on this club. It’s almost a given that someone on the Cubbies rotation is going to get hurt for a length of time; So Gaudin will step in.

This still leaves that number five starting pitcher spot open, wide open.

Marshall, Samardzija, Free Agent

Marshall used to be quite the prospect, and he’s a servicably back-end starter at this point.  He’s got more experience than Samardzija and he’s also got the benefit of being another lefty. Right now, It’s about as much of a coin-flip as you could ever imagine. Pitchers and Catchers will report in a couple days, so this may actually be a battle that’s waged during Spring Training.

Free Agent / Trade?

I’m considering this a pretty realistic option, as the market is still doing it’s thing.  Ben Sheets is obviously tarnished goods at this point.

Heilman could have been picked up from the Mariners to be swung in a Peavy? trade. Right now it seems downright IDIOTIC, that the Cubs would have traded Felix Pie for Aaron Heilman — somethings got to be in the works, right?

Peavy trade situation courtesy of MLB.com, says maybe the trade will go down after the Cubs sale.

and here’s the Sun Times’ take as of the end of January

The problem with the Peavy deal is that the Cubs are running out of back-up plans.  The lower-tier free agent pitchers are now starting to get signed, as pitchers and catchers report to camp in under a bloody week. Pedro’s still out there, but do the Cubs need another Injury risk?

Verdict:

I’d put Samardzija at about a 1/3 shot of breaking camp with the job.  That doesn’t particularly mean he’ll have no value though.

If the Cubs don’t get Peavy, then Samardzija has a shot of making the rotation in the first month of the season.  Someone will get hurt, and/or Marshall may suck it up.

Maybe Gaudin gets the first shot at the Spot-Starter Role, maybe not.

I’d have to say feed the machine, but your league better be deep as all hell. I can think of plenty of other pitchers I’d gamble on.

Photo Courtesy of TheWestEnd

Clayton Kershaw will turn 21 on the 19th of March, and he’s already been through a couple tumble-cycles in the hype machine. Obviously, big things are expected from Kershaw this year as he’s penciled in the second slot in the Dodgers’ rotation behind Chad Billingsley.

With the recent signing of Randy Wolf (1-year, 5-million) the Dodgers’ rotation is starting to take shape.  Considering Pitchers and Catchers are only a week away from reporting, it’s a safe bet to project the rotation as follows: Billingsley, Wolf, Kershaw, Kuroda, with Schmidt, Vargas and a handful of others fighting for the last spot.

So, for the sake of fantasy owners’ sanity, we’ll assume that Kershaw will have a starting gig throughout the entirety of 2009.

When dealing with young hurlers, you really only have to concern yourself with a few things.

1. A High Strike-out Rate (K%, or K per 9):  If the kid doesn’t strike batters out,  they’re generally not worth the risk.  There are very few exceptions where a players WHIP, and ERA will be useful and draft worthy but it can easily blow up in your face.  Ian Kennedy of the Yankees comes to mind.
2. Control, Control, Control. A kid can have all the stuff in the world, but at some point batters will stop swinging if he cant control at least two of his pitches.
3. Change Speeds / Keep Batters off balance.  Most of the young guys that get thrown into  the hype machine will be tossing at least 94-95 MPH but if he doesn’t have something else — he’ll more than likely end up in a relief role.

Now, lets see what Kershaw brings to the table:

Dominant Strike-Out Pitcher: Even though Kershaw’s dirty strike-out per nine numbers took a dip when he came to the bigs, he’s still dominant in the strike-out department.  Expecting anywhere from an 8 to 11 strike-outs per nine is realistic.

Strike-outs aren’t a problem, as Kershaw’s bringing 94-95mph heat to the mound with him.  If Torre lets Kershaw loose, which probably wont happen until at least the All-Star break, watch out.

Control, Control, Control: Statistically speaking, 100 innings pitched isn’t quite enough to go on especially when you consider it was Kershaw’s first major league action.  However, his BB/9 are ’round about where you’d expect a young power pitcher to be. If Kershaw continues pitching at around 8 or 9 K per 9, his walk rate should improve in 2009. If Kershaw starts going all out, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his K-Rate skyrocket to 11ish, and his BB rate bounce up to about 5ish.

Either way, Kershaw is going to be useful.  However, there are going to be some serious rough patches. For the most part Kershaw’s BAD games, were somewhat predictable.

6 ER in 4 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies on August 23.

5 ER in 3 IP agaist the Colorado Rockies in Coors on July 22.

5 ER in 2.1 IP against the Washington Nationals on August 28th. Guh?

It’d be nice to see Kershaw improve on his walk rate, and his minor league stats don’t particularly lean one way or another. In his final season in the Minors, Kershaw cut his walk rate to 2.79 per nine which looked like a good sign.

Change Speeds & Buckle Knees: Kershaw’s got the right stuff and once he learns to control it, he’ll be great. What stands out is his ability to go from 94-95 on average, with about about a 97mph ceiling, and then buckle knees with what is already considered one of the best curve-balls in the game and comes in at about 74-75mph.

Kershaw’s change-up is getting better and while he’s only throwing it 5-6 percent of the time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this jump to about 12 % with a off-season and spring-training under his belt.

Spring-training generally means absolutely nothing, but watch Kershaw.  I’m sure they dont have the lovely PFX data during spring camp, but you can tell the difference between his change and curve pretty easily.

There’s a great article on Clayton Kershaw’s future from the hardballtimes.com that showcases a few things about his arm-angle, release point, and future projections.  The HardBallTimes.com is one of the best reads on the web.

The Verdict: Feed the machine, and throw Kershaw straight to the head of the young-pitchers pack. Lincecum, who was drafted the same year as Kershaw, had the benefit of college to hone his control skills and all of the little things. Keep in mind  that Lincecum is almost 4 years older than Kershaw, and Kershaw might requiring a bit of babying by Torre.

Kershaw’s breakout year could come as soon as 2009, but I’d instead be banking on about 185 IP / 8.5 K per 9 / and a 3.25 BB:9 / which puts Kershaw in pretty elite company. Expect improvement, and as long as he’s pitching in the pitcher-friendly NL West, enjoy the ride.

David Price may garner more hype going into 2009, but Kershaw is probably a slightly safer bet with equal, if not greater, upside.

Photo: wish_nbk flickr