Tony LaRussa is apparently a genius, but like most lawyers he’s also a prick. If you’re in LaRussa’s good books for whatever reason — Skip Schumaker had to dispose of 15 of Tony’s Taiwanese whores and play designated driver for a year — you’re good to go. If you’re Colby Rasmus on the other hand, you just have to shut up, grit your teeth and deal with it.

LaRussa is apparently floating the idea of platooning Rasmus and fantasy owners are shitting bricks. Those targeting Rasmus or contemplating dealing him in a keeper league before draft-day already have his K-Rate to worry about. They, and by they I mean me, don’t need this shit to worry about.

Rasmus’ average draft position on ESPN is a testament to the statistical savvy of today’s fantasy baseball players. In years past, everyone would just see a 24-year old kid that put up great numbers in 2010 and project a 10% increase and call it a day. Nowadays, everyone’s rootin’ around in splits, dickin’ around with BABIP and fixating on K-Rates and BB-Rates.

Rasmus does offer one of the best risk-reward picks in the entire draft, though. Despite his 30% K-Rate, Rasmus walks enough to make it work. He’s definitely not your typical center-fielder and I think part of Tony LaRussa is just pissed off that he cant bat his CF first or second in the line-up. Rasmus’ BABIP of .354 in 2010 should regress to the .325 – .330 range so his batting average probably won’t stick, but negating that should be a decreased K-Rate and more chances for balls to sneak through.

Everything else should remain static and even improve if Tony LaRusa gives the kid a shot at regular ABs. A 14% HR/FB rate is definitely fair for a player with Rasmus’ skills and his underlying statistics show a player that’ll go through streaks — like last year’s awful May, terrible July and putrid August — but should come out of it a better player. It’s really easy to get down on Rasmus and I want to, but it’s also really easy to predict an all-star season. If LaRussa accepts his young centerfielder for what he is rather than what LaRussa wants him to be, Rasmus will benefit. It’s fairly clear that plate discipline isn’t Rasmus’ best skill, so LaRussa should be thinking about hitting him in a spot where pitchers throw him more than 42.6% of balls inside the zone. Let’s not forget that Rasmus is very capable of putting up great OBP numbers and would look just dandy somewhere ahead of Pujols and Holliday.

This was going to be a simple article recommending Colby Rasmus and then jerking off his ego for a bit.  It’s still a good idea to go and pick up Colby Rasmus, especially if you’re the type to monitor rosters on a daily basis.  Colby Rasmus, like almost every other youngster, is handled with kiddie gloves when it comes to platooning. While I understand that putting the best line-up on the field is the manager’s job, I’m not completely sold on the premise that sitting a young player against a same-handed pitcher aids his development.  I’m more of a “throw ‘em to the wolves and see what happens” type of person.  Of course Rasmus is going to only hit .116 against lefties when he’s only faced them 43 times, and has rarely seen the same lefty twice in one game.  Baseball folk claim that sitting them will increase confidence, but I can’t fathom how showing a lack of confidence in a hitter increases their confidence.

This practice is definitely not limited to just Colby Rasmus; it pretty much spans every non-switching hitting uber-prospect.  Like Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider only saw 16 AB in 15 G against left handed pitching. Even if it’s a small sample size, Snider did manage to hit .313 in those 16 AB.  Jordan Schafer wasn’t ready, but he too only saw 52 AB in 27 games against lefties.  Carlos Gonzalez hasn’t been up long, but he too has only seen 4 AB in 4 games against same-handed pitchers.  Gerardo Parra rounds out the tentative list of top-100 prospects that simply do not get to face left handed pitching.

Can it be good for a young player to know that he’s sitting every time a left-hander starts?  Watching Travis Snider earlier this year was painful, as his frustration shone through.  There was no way that he was getting into a schedule and in turn, looked terrible against lefties and righties alike.  Strangely enough, he was sent down to the minors to get every day at-bats.  Whether you agree or disagree with the practice doesn’t particularly matter when gauging a player’s fantasy value.  You just have to know who sits, and when they sit.

If you’ve got a solid bench player, Colby Rasmus is entering must-own territory.  Against righties, Rasmus is hitting .331 with a .365 OBP and a .561 slugging percentage, which is good for a .926 OPS.  These are numbers that play in almost every league, even if his counting stats don’t match ‘em at this point. LaRussa still has Skip Schumaker leading off, but has let Colby Rasmus bat second 4 of the past 5 games. For obvious reasons, batting directly in front of Albert Pujols is beneficial.  If Rasmus can keep up his hot hitting against righties, his counting statistics which are currently pretty average, should sky-rocket.

Rasmus is going to have to start adapting shortly as he’s now been up long enough for pitchers to have fairly precise scouting reports.  He’s currently sitting below a 6% BB which will have to change if he plans on being successful through September.  There’s definitely a lot of risk associated with Rasmus, any youngster for that matter, but as a plug-and-play candidate against righties, Rasmus brings very solid value to the table. In the end, Rasmus should show some regression, as he’s been getting slightly lucky on his balls-in-play but that should be off-set by him running a little bit more.  There’s no reason why an athlete the calibre of Colby Rasmus shouldn’t be allowed at least a shot at stealing 10 bases

In standard 12 team mixed leagues, you’re accustomed to seeing Khalil Greene’s name atop the waiver wire.  The man just sits there like a plague, each and every year, waiting for some fool to notice his latest power surge between stints of being downright awful and add him to their roster.

A locale change and a terrific preseason resulted in Greene accomplishing something noteworthy — Greene opened the year rostered in almost all fantasy leagues.

The buzz was short-lived however, as Greene’s returned to his typical sub-.250 batting average and is now owned in a mere 43% of Yahoo leagues.

I’m in the business of blowing minds, and it’s time to go to work: 

Khalil Greene should be owned in all but the shallowest fantasy baseball leagues!

The Cardinals’ line-up is stacked with power hitters and Greene no longer plays half of his games at PETCO Park which consistently rates as one of the least hitter-friendly parks.  Even if nothing else had changed, this alone should keep Khalil Greene fantasy-relevant.

Tony LaRussa has shown the willingness to bat Khalil Greene just about anywhere in a potent Cardinals line-up. Pujols owns the number 3 spot, and at this point Greene isn’t a lead-off man, but other than that, the only place Greene hasn’t hit was in the 8-spot.  Whether Greene’s batting between Pujols and Ludwick, or Ludwick and Ankiel, makes very little difference to his overall fantasy value.

None of this would be relevant if Khalil Greene hadn’t showed the signs of a break-out. The knock on Khalil Greene has always been his low-average, high-strike out tendencies, which hit the breaking point last year in San Diego when Greene hit .213 and struck out 25.7% of the time, en route to posting an atrocious .22 BB:K ratio.

In sixty-four 2009 plate appearances, Greene has walked 8 times compared to only 7 strike-outs.  Greene definitely will not finish the season walking more than he strikes out, but this change in plate approach is mind-boggling. Through the month of April, Greene’s already more than a third of the way to his 2008 walk total of 22.   Greene’s well on his way to destroying his career-high 54 base on balls, which he posted in 2004.

Not only is Greene walking more, but he’s striking out less.  Once again, due to the tiny sample size, it’s insane to predict that Greene will maintain a K% of under 15 percent for the entire year, but this is a great sign. Greene’s lowest strike-out rate was again in his rookie campaign of 2004, where he struck out 19.4 percent of the time.

Greene’s rookie campaign of 2004 was by no means his most powerful campaign, but it was arguably his best campaign. In 139 Games, Greene posted career highs in AVG (.273) , OBP (.349) , OPS (.795), and wOBA(.338, ) and didn’t come close to them over the next four seasons.

Greene’s Plate Discipline has even reverted to the levels that were once expected after his stellar rookie season.  After two consecutive seasons of swinging at absolutely everything, Greene’s reduced his Swing-Rate nearly 10 percentage points, posting a 40% Swing Rate.  Once again, Greene’s previous low occurred in 2004, where he posted a 43% Swing Rate.

Of course, Swing Rate means very little by itself, but it’s components also look promising.  Compared to last year, Greene’s swinging at 15 percent less would-be Balls and only 9 percent less would-be Strikes.

His increased discipline has resulted in a career high Contact Percentage of 87.5%, which is well above his career average of 78.5%.  Greene’s making contact with 94 percent of pitches in the strike-zone that he offers at and 70 percent of pitches outside of the zone.

All of these numbers will certainly regress, but all of the signs are there for a Khalil Greene Break-Out Campaign are definitely there.

So What Gives? Greene’s Still Hitting Under .230!

Greene’s BABIP ( .227 ) – Greene isn’t going to blow your mind with his BABIP, but it should be a lot closer to his career average of .283

In The End…

Courtesy of Baseball Almanac

Brendan Ryan isn’t much of a threat at this point and while Tony LaRussa is capable of doing anything — Greene’s been walking enough to maintain a rather strong grip on the starting shortstop gig.

When the hits start dropping, Greene will more than likely be moved back to the heart of the line-up and will produce.

There’s always the possibility that all of these numbers could just be a random distribution, but there seems to be a solid pattern screaming, “Improved Plate Discipline.”

Everyone should be writing Hal McRae a thank-you note because it appears as though his time spent with Khalil Greene could produce a Middle Infield Steal.

Greene’s always had the talent, he’s just had some serious issues putting it together.

For those about to add Greene, We Salute You.

I wrote an article about Rasmus vs. Schafer, but really didn’t get around to finishing it.  Alas, over the past couple days, rosters are really starting to shape up.  The Hot-Lanta Braves traded away one of my fav-five for cheap steals in 2009, Josh Anderson.  This blind-sided me, bigtime.  I realize that Schafer’s been smash-killing the ball to the tune of a .375-ish average this spring, but Schafer hadn’t been above AA.  His .269 AVG in Double-A last year was misleading, and all signs pointed to a smash-kill season, just not in the show.

Going into Spring Training, I’d say this is a no-brainer:  Rasmus over Schafer in a walk.

But in Bizzarro world, it’s Schafer with the starting gig and Rasmus fighting for AB.  There’s really no way that Chris Duncan can hold off Rasmus, unless Rasmus goes through some serious woes.  The only thing that could derail Rasmus is Skip Schumaker forgetting that he played a competent second-base all spring long.  I followed Rasmus early in ST, and the results were not pretty.  He was batting .200 for a damn long time, and striking out way too much:

Top prospect Colby Rasmus seemed to take La Russa’s advice to heart after a five-for-26 start to camp that included seven strikeouts. La Russa suggested a pressing Rasmus strive to hit for average rather than power while trying to work the middle of the field. Rasmus, 22, hit .328 after March 3 and made the opening-day roster as no worse than fourth outfielder. -stltoday.com

Schafer on the other hand has put that HGH-problem (snitches get stitches) behind him and killed the ball all spring. He looks to have the job all to himself, as he’s really the only capable center-fielder of the bunch, with the exception of Brandon Jones who was just optioned.

If Bobby Cox believes in Schafer, then so do I.

If we’re just looking at skill set, and pure talent: Rasmus wins, hands down — or at least as hands down as your average-joe can predict development, hands down.

Schafer’s still tough to judge, especially when you consider the HGH scandal.  I’m not sure how long that shit stays in your system for, but I’m guessing it’s longer than the 50 Game suspension.  Rasmus does project to have better power, and a better knack for picking the right time to steal.

This is why Rasmus cracks the top-5 on Baseball America’s rankings, and Schafer comes in around 50th.

Opportunity is a whole different ballgame.  Schafer will probably start out batting 8th, but could easily be moved up into the lead-off spot in that Atlanta line-up.  Rasmus on the other hand will undoubtedly fill LaRussa’s wonderful creation, the ‘second lead-off man’, for a good chunk of the season.

Part of what makes Rasmus great, his plus-power for a CF, will be negated if he ever steps up to lead-off for St. Louis. If Rasmus takes what LaRussa said to heart, he’ll continue to hit for average rather than power, which should at least in theory, keep his K-rate at a respectable percent.  With Rasmus’ walk rate, realistically he only needs to hit .270 to be a useful lead-off hitter, even if he does strike-out 15-18% of the time.

Rasmus will eventually develop into a 3-hole guy, with the perfect combination of power-speed-patience; but at this point in his career his best shot at fantasy success is the lead-off role ahead of Ludwick, Pujols, Ankiel, and Schumaker.

In the end, both Rasmus and Schafer have a very solid shot at hitting atop of their respective line-ups by May.  Unfortunately, breaking Rasmus of many of the habits that’ve helped him succeed thus far, could be a challenge.

This one might not be close in the end, as I’m assuming one of these two is going to smash-kill the fail-button pretty hard. At this point though, Rasmus’ upside really negates Schafer’s initial advantage out of the blocks.

One of these two could end up with 15 HR and 20 SB, which sits pretty well in deep leagues, even if they both end up batting in the .260-.270 range.  I’m tempted to predict slightly better Run and RBI numbers for Rasmus, with Schafer not that far behind.

In the end, this is a PUSH.  If you like Risk, go with Rasmus.  If you’re down for the safer bet, take Schafer and his opening day gig.  Basically, I’m bitching-out fairly hard-core on making a decision, but if this were a starting spot in my line-up, I’d more than likely lean towards Schafer.  If this were a bench spot, or a keeper league — Rasmus for sure.

Schafer Photo Courtesy of Wallyg-flickr
Rasmus courtesy of MWLguide-flickr

It appears as though St. Louis is more than just a stop over for migrating internally displaced, yet fully functional, gang members.

Feel free to let “Ross Kemp On Gangs“ verse you on the subject. He’ll brief you on how to tell if PCP is real, and what an ounce in St. Louis will run you.  Rather than reading this article, I highly suggest spending 45 minutes watching that documentary solely for the laughs.

So Tony LaRussa  has this crazy idea whereby your ninth hitter is your second lead off hitter. Tony’s kind of nutty, but his “snitches get stitches” frame of mind has saved many careers.

Remember Tony’s interview with the Bryan Burwell of the  St. Louis  Post – Dispatch?

Q: You have more than your fair share of Mitchell Report guys on this team.
Does it bother you that there’s a perception that you give safe harbor to steroid guys?

LaRussa: “No, and I’ll tell you why not. One way I was taught to survive is my No. 1 accountability factor is myself. This is my 30th year doing this at the major league level. There isn’t anybody – the commissioner, our owner, the fans, you – there isn’t any person, man or woman, who can make me any more accountable than I am now right now because of myself. And I know there isn’t anything we’ve done in all those years that was – with one small exception where we stole signs, a little hiccup – there isn’t anything else that has happened on our ballclubs in Oakland or St. Louis that there’s a hint of illegality. There isn’t anything that we didn’t actively and proactively attempt to do it right.”

http://www.stltoday.com/

Anyways, Tony generally brings the awesome and with his recent move to turn Skip Schumaker into a second basemen — he brings it hard.  Now I recall reading something about Schumaker playing second at some point during his career, but all I can find is 6! games at third base during his 2004 season in AA with Tennessee.

With Schumaker presumably moving to second, Brendan Ryan gets left out in the cold. While this may be a heart-breaking loss to Brendan’s family — I think the fantasy world will survive.  What this does do is open up the RF spot for none other than CHRIS DUNCAN!

Wait, I mean: COLBY RASMUS! Remember him? Top-10 Prospect Colby Rasmus?

Rasmus has the perfect range and arm combination to play any of the outfield spots. Tony LaRussa digs this, and has hinted that Rasmus may just fit the role of SECOND-LEAD-OFF-MAN.

Now, I’m not sure who gets the bigger bump due to these circumstances.  Schumaker will make one hell of a late round draft pick, and his value only increases if he plays second base but isn’t eligible out of the gate.  If you’re in a league where you can’t spare a roster-spot for 10 Games…You need a reality check, or OCD meds.

Schumaker has a great deal of value as a MI and while his offensive stats may take a dip, he should be just fine. Schumakers a legit .300 hitter, and that oughta do something for his run scoring / producing numbers.

Rasmus on the other hand had a few injury issues in 2008, just a few. Rasmus’ batting average has been free-falling over the past few seasons, and it’s at the point now where the ROBOTS predict him to hit .250 in the Show.  If Rasmus suits up for the Red Birds, I’d expect closer to a .275 average with a month or two of .300+ smash-kill-ball type hitting. This obviously means that he’s going to have more than a couple of months where he battles the Mendoza line (and wins! victory, at last!)

So long as Rasmus can keep his BB% above 10, there’s no reason to fret. If he stops taking the free pass, his 20+ percent strike-out rate will haunt him though. Even if Rasmus ends up splitting time with Duncan, he’ll get AB against lefties as Duncan’s OPS splits are stupid-silly: .893 OPS against righties vs. .602 OPS vs. lefties. Mather could also factor into the equation with a good camp, and a hot start.

Conclusion:

Watch Ross Kemp. Rasmus is still young and although he was mentioned in the same breath as Jay Bruce last year, things have changed.  Rasmus is worth a risk in just about any format if he breaks camp with a starting job.  If you have to pencil him into a starting position though, you’re playing with fire.

Photos:
Skyline of St. Louis Courtesy of Express Monorail (Hiatus) - Flickr,
Arch: hz536n - flickr