One of the strangest pitchers of the 2010 season was the Tampa Bay Rays’ James Shields. Despite posting his best xFIP (3.72) and K/9 (8.28), Shields posted his worst ERA by a landslide (5.14).

As the playoffs commenced last year, R.J. Anderson was stumped but concluded, “I’m not entirely certain what to pull from all of this other than Shields’ supposed hittability issues go deeper than him falling behind or being stubborn about giving up a free pass in certain situations.”

The first thing we notice is that more balls were dropping: Shields’ career BABIP heading into last season was around .300, but in 2010 he posted an unusually high BABIP of .341 (which Anderson concluded was mainly a result of balls dropping when Shields was pitching from the stretch).

After that, we see that it was two pitches that contributed to ERA and probably BABIP inflation:

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Shields’ fastball steadily declined in 2009 and 2010 and his cutter/slider was a negative pitch for really the first time in his career.

To the right, you notice that James Shields’ release point slowly trended towards 0 (the line on the right is zero, line on the left is -4, line on the top is 8, line on the bottom is four).

This may have been a result of Shields moving on the mound, but it’s more than likely a result of arm-slot. The best groupings of the bunch are 2007 and 2010 which correlates to Shields’ two best xFIPs: 3.78 and 3.72, respectively.

Did Shields’ arm-angle and release point have an effect on the movement of his pitches though?

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Shield’s fangraph pfx page is tough to analyze because so many of his cutters and two-seamers get mixed in with his four-seamer and make for tough data. To make things worse, his cutter and slider are essentially the same pitch and also get confused.

Unfortunately, those are the two pitches that we have to look at, so here goes:

Shields’ straight fastball slowly lost horizontal movement as you can see by the green dots trending closer and closer to 0. In 2007 and 2008, the difference between Shields’ straight fastball and cutter was noticeable, but by 2010 a decent percentage of Shields straight fastballs were just too straight and didn’t have the vertical movement to compensate. Shields did add almost a full mph on the pitch, but you’re not going to blow anyone away with a 91.5 mph fastball.

There is a concerning trend with Shields losing velocity on his cutter/slider combo. While Shields did at a fair amount of vertical movement on both pitches, there was a concerning loss of velocity. From 2008, his cutter and slider were down almost 2mph each. Almost all of the pitchers that succeed with a cutter do so because it’s close to their four-seamer and two-seamer in speed and in 2007-2008, Shields four-seamer came in at 90mph and his cutter at 88mph. By 2010, Shields four-seamer was at 91.5mph but his cutter had dropped to 86.7mph.

Shields’ fastball-cutter combo actually sort of turned into a bad-fastball and bad-slider combination with both pitches being incredibly hittable. It’s clear, at least to me, that James Shields needs to get his cutter back up to par in terms of velocity.

This is just a shot in the dark, but check out these numbers:

Every other pitcher with a large difference is a lefty. The righties seem grouped around the same general area; everyone except Dan Haren, of course.

Shields and Dan Haren, along with Ricky Nolasco, all have something in common though. They give up homers in bunches to same-handed hitters and they refuse to walk batters when the going gets tough.

In 2010, Shields gave up homers left, right and center. Despite HR/FB ratios of 9.8 and 8.7 against righties in 2008 and 2009, James Shields gave up an astonishing 17% HR/FB ratio in 2010. Against opposite handers, Shields HR/FB ratio was right around his career average of 11ish.

So the real question is how will James Shields fair in 2011, especially considering his 200+ Average Draft Position and the answer isn’t all that clear.

I think Shields does well, but the only thing we know is that he’ll underperform his FIP.  The New 8+ K/9 Shields will provide value, even if he falls somewhere along the lines of 2009 rather than 2010. A 4.14 ERA is playable, especially with 8K/9.

Do I think that the Toronto Blue Jays will light James Shields up for 8 (EIGHT!) Home Runs and 12 Earned Runs in in Two games and a total of 9IP? Probably not! Without the Toronto games, Shields’ ERA drops almost a full third of a run.

I’m drafting James Shields this year and while I know he’ll post a better xFIP than ERA, I’m confident that Reid Brignac can replace Jason Bartlett defensively and once Damon or Manny gets hurt, Desmond Jennings is an amazing fielder at any of the OF positions.

Raw, unabashed power. That’s Oakland’s Chris Carter in a couple of words. In 2010, the 23-year old Carter absolutely murder-killed AAA pitching to the tune of a .296 ISO, .529 SLG and 31 Homers.

Yet somehow the man with the big stick toppled down Baseball America’s rankings from 28th in 2010 to 91st in 2011. There was a tremendous influx of talent in the 2009/2010 MLB June Drafts, but Carter deserves to be much higher than 91st. Carter may strike out about 30% and may only walk in the low teens, but when he makes contact the ball goes far….real far.

In his brief major league career, Carter’s posted some concerning yet predictable statistics for a power-hitter. His SwStr (15%) is too high. His contact rate (67%) is also too low, but most of that’s coming on bad pitches (O-Contact: 59%) and he’s not chasing more than average (O-Swing: 29.3%).

Carter is (along with Michael Taylor) the kind of player that will put up monsterous Spring Training numbers though. I’ll call it now, he’ll destroy the Spring and become one of the hottest sleepers out there.

Unfortunately for Carter, the Oakland Athletics don’t really have anywhere for Carter to play. The Athletics have compiled a wild assortment of depth at almost every position. In many cases, the bench players are just as solid as the starters. This team is built to withstand injuries on offense.

Carter’s natural position is probably DH, but the Athletics have brought in Hideki Matsui. He’s also a decent first basemen, but the Athletics currently have Daric Barton and Conor Jackson manning that spot. Carter’s pretty terrible but not insanely awful in left-field, but the Athletics now have Josh Willingham and fellow prospect, Michael Taylor out there. Ryan Sweeney’s also waiting in the wings for any one of the Athletics outfielders to end up on the DL.

Coco Crisp and David DeJesus both played under 100 games last year, and Willingham barely managed 114. Matsui is now 36 and Daric Barton and Conor Jackson are arguably the two most boring first basemen in the history of the game (although I’ve always sorta liked Jackson).

So, will Chris Carter find a spot to play? I think so. Something’s gotta give in Oakland eventually. I think the Athletics might be wise to keep Carter in AAA to get ABs rather than sit him on the bench, but he has proven everything he needs to prove down there.

Now, even if Carter does find himself the ABs, he plays in Oakland. Oakland is bad news for a power-hitting, flyball machine (54% last year). Carter isn’t likely to hit better than about 0.250, but the power’s definitely legit.  Oakland’s offense will also score a few more runs this year and while it’s not potent, it should be fun to watch that depth-chart shape up.

This isn’t exactly post-grad math or a groundbreaking thesis, I just really like Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez appears to have second-base locked up and I’m banking on him nabbing at least 450-500 AB in 2011. Jason Barlett’s gone and until Tampa brought in Damon and Manny, Rodriguez had probably secured himself everyday ABs. Still, knowing Manny and Damon, there’s going to be a place for Rodriguez in most of the games.

I think it’s fair to say that Manny will play no more than five games in the field and make at least a couple trips to the DL. With that in mind, Matt Joyce will probably get his fair share of ABs bouncing around the OF. When Joyce or Desmond Jennings plays, Ben Zobrist will probably end up playing a fair bit of second base and potentially a lot of first base if Dan Johnson stumbles. The Rays seem pleased enough with Johnson, but Joe Maddon loves flexibility and that translates into fantasy conundrums. Within that mess, there’s the potential that Sean Rodriguez sees enough ABs to justify a roster-spot.

For a second basemen, Sean Rodriguez has quite a bit of pop. Last year’s 0.146 Isolated Power was slightly lower than you’d expect given Rodriguez’s minor-league track record. Rodriguez should sit somewhere in the .160-.170 ISO area with a BB:K of 0.30 rather than last year’s 0.22 mark.

Rodriguez still has room for improvement and his approach at the plate is still pretty raw ( 30% O-Swing, 70% Contact Rate, 12.5% SwStr) but he’s only 25-years old and can absolutely punish the straight-stuff. How Rodriguez deals with the breaking stuff in 2011 will largely determine his overall value.

In deeper leagues, Rodriguez is a must. In shallower leagues, Rodriguez makes one of the best flyers out there. Rodriguez should lock down at least 15 SB, 15HR, a .255-.260ish AVG, and decent but not stellar Runs and RBI depending on where he hits. The Rays should score a fairly often in 2011 considering the addition of Damon and Manny along with the standard progression you’d expect from what seems like an eternally young line-up. Believe it or not, B.J. Upton’s still only 26-years old and still has room for improvement.

All sorts of potential here and a 20/20 season definitely isn’t out of the question if Rodriguez gets close to 600ish AB.

Without a doubt, Pedro Alvarez is one of the sexiest names this spring. Alvarez should open the year plunked in the heart of the Pirates line-up and that’s no longer death, doom and gloom. Neil Walker, Andrew McCutchen, Jose Tabata and Garrett Jones can rake.

The single knock on Alvarez is his contact rate and corresponding strike-out rate. Pedro Alvarez posted a contact rate (70%) about 10-full points below the league average and struck out a whooping 34.7% of the time. When he does make contact though, he hits the ball hard, real hard (.205 ISO).

The question with every youngster, Pedro Alvarez included, is just how much progression you can expect from season one to season two. If someone weren’t as hyped as Alvarez, there’d definitely be an aura of sophomore slump around him. Yet, his relatively mediocre production  has almost negated the possibility of a sophomore slump in fantasy circles.

This is where I shit on your parade: Players definitely succeed with a 10% BB-Rate and a 30% K-Rate, but it’s an uphill battle. Mark Reynolds, who himself, should be in for a banner year makes it work with almost a 40% K-Rate. In the recent weeks, Alvarez has actually surpassed Reynolds in Yahoo!’s ADP which seems like a slight stretch in terms of actual production. Fantasy owners always love to dream on players, but I think you genuinely have to examine how much progression (or regression) you think Alvarez will make in 2011.

The fangraphs prediction models seem to think Alvarez will make a healthy amount of progression, .265 AVG(ish) progression. It’s abundantly clear where Alvarez needs to make progression:

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Alvarez absolutely destroys right-handed pitching; so at the very least, I’d recommend grabbing someone that could fill a *just-in-case* roll when Alvarez faces lefties. The majority of his hot-streak to close out the season can be attributed to facing a righty-heavy streak of pitching:

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Realistically, you’re not even banking on whether or not Pedro Alvarez will progress, you’re banking on whether or not he’ll progress against lefties and away from home. Even if Alvarez fails to progress, he’s still a very valuable tool to have in the shed. I say this only because the Pirates offer up a fairly balanced line-up with Alvarez and Jones hitting from the left side, and ‘Cutch and Tabata swinging from the right-side. Walker provides a great linchpin and a lot of flexibility swinging from both sides. It’ll be tough for managers to LOOGY Alvarez to death.

Right now, Alvarez is sitting on the bubble around the 10th best third-base option, but entering next year I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised to see him in the conversation for the top-5. Yes, that list has Zimmerman, Rodriguez, Longoria, David Wright and Alvarez.

Would anyone be surprised if Adrian Beltre  had an off-year? What about if Jose Bautista came back down to earth? Aramis Ramirez got hurt? Michael Young suffered whatever old people suffer from? Would you be surprised to learn that Martin Prado should probably be played at second in your league?

Even with a replacement level player manning your third base spot while Alvarez faces lefties, you’ve essentially got a top-5 third basemen. Oh, and by the way, I think Alvarez starts out slow enough to break the hearts of a few owners. I’d be targeting him about 2-3 weeks into the season.

Matusz underwent a rough start to 2010, but managed to turn things around after the Orioles brought in Buck Schowalter. The numbers certainly do not lie:

So what’s the deal with Matusz and is there a reason to select him higher than his current 186th overall according to Yahoo?

The Orioles selected Matusz as the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft and he quickly made his way up Baseball America’s list of top one-hundred prospects. Heading into 2010, Matusz was the fifth best prospect in the nation, a couple of spots ahead of a Mr. Buster Posey. Matusz’s value has always come from his ability to competently throw four solid pitches for strikes and place them wherever the hell he wants. He doesn’t light up the gun and actually looked better operating in the high-80′s than he did early in the season when he was overthrowing.

Despite last year’s results (linear weights,) Matusz’s go-to pitches are still the curveball and change-up. Both have terrific movement and Matusz’s repeatable delivery adds quite a bit of deception. When you’re talking about young lefties, the kid pretty much has it all.  There’s still room to grow, though.  While Matusz’s strike-outs are probably just about right (7-8K/9,) there’s still plenty of room for growth with his walk-rate (3.23BB/9).

A deeper look inside of Matusz’s numbers shows just how dominate the kid is against left-handers: In about 40IP, Matusz posted an 11.87 K/9 while only walking 2.56-per-9. Matusz is still just a pup and if you can quantify nervousness, I’d say it’d look like this.

The only problem is the teams that he’s forced to toss to in his division.  Last year, Matusz handled the Red Sox (2.43 ERA / 1.18 WHIP), dealt with the Yankees (2.92ERA/1.38 ERA), did alright against the Rays (4.24 ERA/1.29 WHIP), but got absolutely destroyed against the Blue Jays (20.25 ERA /3.38 WHIP).

The Red Sox made some huge off-season moves, but Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez are both lefties (so are Ellsbury, Drew and Ortiz). Almost the entire punch of the Red Sox line-up bats lefty. As for the Yankees, Gardner, Granderson, and Cano all hit lefty, but most of the punch comes from the right side. The Rays are still up in the air, but almost everyone hits righty in that group. As for the Blue Jays, Lind and Snider both hit from the left side, but unless Bautista comes backs big, I doubt this team will have anywhere near the amount of punch as they had last year.

In my opinion, Matusz is defintely the kind of player that you can ride for a couple months. You should be able to tell pretty early whether or not the kid has it and the upside is terrific. Especially with a revamped O’s line-up.

Heading into 2009, Baseball America did everyone a favour and ranked the top-100 prospects. After dominating Olympic competition, Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and his heavy fastball jumped into the top-20 as the 11th overall prospect, just behind super-prospect Neftali Feliz. Twenty-year old Rick Porcello wasn’t all that far behind as Baseball America ranked him the 21st overall for the second year in a row.

Rick Porcello - Rivals.com

It’s Porcello, one year removed from his 7-million dollar prep-bonus, that’s adapted to the level of competition quicker — or so it appears. Porcello’s currently 6-and-2 with a sparking 3.48 ERA which is head and shoulders above Cahill’s 4.48 ERA and 2-and-5 record. Their Fielding Independent Pitching ERAs aren’t nearly as pretty, but Porcello once against bests Cahill with a 4.67 to 5.61 advantage. Neither Porcello nor Cahill has been as dominant as expected; both posted painfully low strike-out numbers, especially given their pure stuff.  Porcello posted surprisingly low strike-out totals in his first professional season, failing to tally 6-K per 9 in High-A.  Porcello‘s continued to post mediocre strike-out totals in the show, notching only 5.57 K per 9, thus far.  Porcello‘s succeeded on the strength of a ridiculous 54% ground-ball rate and by limiting free passes.

Trevor John Cahill

Cahill on the other hand, …what the hell happened to Trevor Cahill?

Cahill doesn’t throw quite as hard as Porcello, but he’s got a solid repertoire of pitches to go with his heavy two-seamer. Prior to his 2008 promotion to Double-A, Cahill was consistently notching 10+ K-per-9. Even after his promotion (as a 20-year old,) Cahill managed 34 strike-outs in 37 IP or 8K/9.  Upon Cahill‘s arrival in Oakland, he’s either been told to pitch to contact or has been abandon by his secondary offerings, as he’s seen his K-per-9 level off at 3.95 batters per 9. Coincidentally, 3.95 batters per nine is also the number of free passes Cahill’s allowing in the majors, good for a 1.00 K:BB rate.  It’s not the walk rate that’s been surprising though, it’s the drastic decline in strike-outs — even the most conservative models didn’t peg Cahill as a sub-4.00 K/9 pitcher.

It’s almost certain that both of these future aces will be demoted at some point to fine tune their mechanics, but viewing their future through the paradigm of a re-draft fantasy baseball league should be interesting at the very least.

When it comes to pure stuff, Porcello notches out Cahill based on pure velocity. Both pitchers throw hard, but Porcello has no issues firing his fastball upto 95mph whereas Cahill generally tops out in the 93-94mph area.  Porcello also changes speeds marginally better, as his curveball and slider drop below 80mph.  Both pitchers rely on their two-seamer heavily and while Cahill has the potential to get more vertical and horizontal movement, it’s Porcello that throws the pitch with consistency.  Cahill‘s clearly experiencing major issues with his release point, and replicating pitches as we use http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/ to compare their most recent starts on May 27th.

Trevor Cahill Release Point vs. Seattle May 27th

Porcello Release Point Vs. Kansas City

It’s pretty clear that Porcello‘s (bottom) finding and replicating his release point fairly well for a young kid, a 6-foot-5 kid at that.  Cahill (top) on the other hand is having issues finding his release point, with almost a full 2 inch disparity on some pitches.  Of all Cahill‘s problems, this is a minor one, but it may be contributing to his trouble finding the zone.

Cahill Strike Zone Plot By Pitch

Porcello Strike Zone Plot

Cahill (top) is all over the map, but he’s keeping the majority of his strikes down in the zone.  Trevor’s still leaving more than his fair share of change-ups up in the zone, but for the most part he’s keeping his ‘strikes’ down in the zone. Porcello on the other hand, pounded the zone against the Royals en route to six strong innings of 4-hit baseball.

Cahill's Vertical and Horizontal Break Chart

Porcello's Horizontal Vertical Break Chart

It’s pretty clear that both Cahill and Porcello threw an insane amount of two seamers, even if Porcello‘s 2-seamer was often misclassified. Porcello‘s two seamer shows a tonne of movement, but doesn’t match the difference between Cahill‘s 4-seam and 2-seam fastball.  Cahill‘s 4-seamer has quite a bit of backspin, and a tremendous amount of tailing action to it.  Porcello’s off-speed offerings, along with a greater change of speed, also have superior movement. In the end, based on their two latest games, it’s clear that Porcello‘s exhibited superior refinement. However, if Cahill can clean up his delivery and release point, he does have the arsenal to drastically lower his walks while increasing his strike-outs.

There’s some evidence that Cahill‘s beginning to put it together after a rough start to the season, even if he’s faced lack-luster competition thus far.  As sinkerballers are prone to do, Cahill’s had two blow-ups where he failed to make it through 3 innings while giving up 7 ER ( @Detroit, May 24th, and vs. Tampa, April 24th.) 

Excluding those two outings leaves Cahill with a line of  55.1 IP, 15 ER, 46 H, 22 BB, 25 K or a 2.44 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP!

While randomly eliminating two data-sets for shits and giggles isn’t exactly statistically professional, Trevor Cahill has proven to be capable of putting together solid outings.  More importantly, prior to last night, Trevor Cahill had put together two straight 5 strike-out performances in 6.0 & 7.1 IP against Arizona and Seattle.  Having a good outing versus Arizona is nothing special, but overlooking Cahill‘s performance against a mediocre Mariners team would be a mistake.  The Seattle Mariners had already seen Trevor Cahill twice and after being held to a single run in each of those games, they should’ve been comfortable with his entire arsenal.  Cahill‘s continued domination of the M’s showcases his elite stuff, rather than extended beginners luck.

Much like Cahill, Rick Porcello had a couple early season jitters but has been lights-out since allowing 4 ER to TOR and KC, and 6 ER to the Yankees. Since his Yankee blow-up, Porcello’s allowed 1-run three times, 2 runs once, and shut-out then Twinkies. Porcello has also seen his strike-out numbers increase, and stabilize at 5 or 6 K per 9.

Neither Cahill or Porcello is initiating that many swings-and-misses inside or outside of the zone.  I wouldn’t expect either of these future aces to surpass 6 – 6.5 K per 9 with their current philosphy, however they both have room to improve in the K-department. It’s pretty clear that both of these kids are really starting to put it together, but like most rookies they’ll be proned to blow-ups.  Quantifying composure is obviously a difficult thing to do, but Cahill should have the edge over Porcello at this point.  A few terrible starts for Porcello could spell the end of his 2009 Big League season, as the Tigers would prefer not to ‘Bonderman’ yet another future star.

]]> http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/06/rick-porcello-trevor-cahill-past-present-future/feed/ 0 http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/05/the-jordan-zimmermann-dilemma/ http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/05/the-jordan-zimmermann-dilemma/#comments Thu, 28 May 2009 03:43:56 +0000 kris http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/?p=1614 Tweet

Jordan Zimmermann busted out of the gate and got shit poppin’ by shutting down two half-decent offenses in the Mets and Braves.  Zimmermann hasn’t looked nearly as dominant in the month of May, posting a 6.98 ERA in 5 May starts.  While May’s been a very forgettable month for Jordan Zimmermann, there have been a couple bright spots:

Zimmermann’s still posting a strike-out per inning and his 31Ks are good for 10th in the bigs over the last month.  More importantly, Zimmermann’s keeping his BB% rate under 3 batters per 9 which translates into a 3.44 K:BB.

Along with solid control, Zimmermann’s mixing his pitches well and attacking hitters with a 66.5% first pitch strike rate (MLB AVG is 57.8%.)

Aside from a couple of rate-stats, the only other bright spot is Zimmermann’s final May start against the Orioles.  The Orioles have a surprisingly effective offense, so going 7 IP with 6H, 1BB, 1HR and 8K is quite an achievement.

So is Zimmermann worth buying low?

Zimmermann’s cumulative ERA of 5.71 is quite a bit higher than his FIP of 4.26. The incompetence of the Nationals’ last placed defense will generally render an ERA higher than expected, but Zimmermann’s still been quite unlucky.

Zimmermann’s currently only stranding 66.5% of batters, including an awful LOB of 58% in the month of May.  In addition, batters are hitting .343 on balls in play off of Zimmerman which should regress to the .300-range.

Zimmermann does have quite a bit of break-through potential as he’s got the hard-part, the control part, down pat.  If a 4.00-4.25 ERA with great strike-out numbers plays in your league, Zimmermann has enough potential to outweigh the rookie-risk.

Unfortunately, Zimmermann and the Nationals have one-heck-offa-schedule coming up:

at Philly

vs. SF

vs. NYM

vs. Cinci

at Tampa

at New York

vs. Toronto

vs. Boston

San Francisco and the injury-plagued Mets are the only breathers on the Nationals’ schedule, and Zimmermann’s not even afforded the luxury of playing them on the road at two of the friendlier pitchers-parks out there.  He’s definitely got the stuff, but performing better than your statistics suggest doesn’t mean squat when you’ve got a schedule like that coming up.

Considering that Zimmermann will undoubtedly suffer from the late season dead arm syndrome that almost all rookies go through, he’s a risky add — but high-strikeout numbers make up for a whooooole lot…

It’s Sunday night and I’ve been busy as hoot the last week, but here’s a quick update using FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching (normalized to ERA.)

As we all know, baseball’s a game of variables, too many variables too isolate, so we end up with standard baseball statistics lying to our faces like a cheating girlfriend.

Clayton Kershaw ( 4.91 ERA / 4.16 FIP ) is actually putting up better ratios than last year. His walk rate’s almost identical, and he’s striking out almost a full batter more per nine innings. Kershaw’s BABIP is a smidgen low (.280 BABIP,) so any improvement in his 67% strand-rate will probably be negated. When batters are only hitting 13.3% line-drives off of you, things are looking good. His WHIP will never be terrific as he’ll continue to walk around 4 BB/9, but he’s still one of the few pitchers that can get to 200K on the season.

Ubaldo Jiminez ( 5.45 ERA / 3.65 FIP) is an interesting case, as are all Colorado pitchers.  Much like Kershaw, Jiminez will post an eye-popping K/9 ratio, but struggles with command (5.45 BB/9.) Batters are currently hitting an eye-popping .344 on balls in play even though he’s allowing 21% of hits for Line Drives. When all is said and done, Jiminez should settle down and show improvement from 2008.  His WHIP will still be average at best, but there’s no way it stays at 1.61 the entire seasaon.

Chris Young ( 4.76 ERA / 3.39 FIP ) has been having some issues holding base-runners at bay.  Dexter Fowler took him for five bases a couple weeks ago, and Nick Hundley is probably still having nightmares.  Unless this starts getting to Young mentally, he’s still a terrific option in all formats.  Young is generally the BABIP-King as his career average is .269 with his past three seasons being his best ( 2006-.237 / 2007-.252 / 2008 -.266).  Young’s current BABIP sits at .314 and should definitely regress to the .265-region.  Young’s one of the few cheaper pitchers that’ll contribute across the board with 7-8K/9, 1.15-WHIP, and a sub-4.00 ERA.

Todd Wellemeyer ( 4.75 ERA / 3.80 FIP ) burst onto the  scene last year and manages to succeed without a sexy K-Rate. Batters are hitting .316 off of him after he held them to .248 in 2008.  Wellemeyer’s BABIP of .356 probably has quite a bit to do with this and should come down.  Expecting Wellemeyer to repeat his .273 BABIP of 2008 is probably asking too much, but it should regress at least to the league average. Unlike the aforementioned pitchers, Wellemeyer will only strike-out 5 to 6 batttters per 9, but he’ll keep his BB/9 down and post similiar K:BB numbers.  Obviously this limits Wellemeyer’s upside, but he’s still right on the cusp of being useful in 12-team mixed leagues.

Randy Wolf  (2.95 ERA / 3.71 FIP ) gets no love from fantasy players. If Wolf was 10 years younger, he’d be surrounded by hype.  Wolf was predicted to put up 7.50 K/9 and the last time he was in LA he posted an 8.24 K/9.  Thus far, Wolf has exceeded the projections by posting a 7.59 K/9 while only walking 2.95 batters per 9.  While Wolf’s ERA is artificially low due to a .249 BABIP, he’s still posting a league average strand rate.  Considering Randy Wolf is only allowing 16% of hits for line-drives, his lower than expected BABIP isn’t as out of proportion as you’d expect.  A lucky owner has undoubtedly picked up Wolf and will enjoy the ride while it lasts.  Wolf will eventually get unlucky and as a result post some less than spectacular statistics.  If you can get Wolf after this point, he’s going to be a steal: A Solid ERA, 1.35 WHIP, Solid Win totals, and above average strike-out numbers.  While Manny Ramirez’s suspension may cost Wolf a win, replacing his lack-luster defense will certainly help a neutral fly-ball pitcher like Wolf.

The Minnesota Twins’ Glen Perkins ( 3.73 ERA / 3.73 FIP ) and Kevin Slowey (5.50 ERA / 4.18 FIP ) are two pitchers I’m trying to acquire, with emphasis on Slowey.  Neither Perkins ( 1.75 BB/9) or Slowey (0.42 BB/9) walk batters which is an easy way to post a respectable WHIP without terrific stuff. Neither pitcher is particularly sexy, Perkins is posting an awful 4.83 K/9 compared to his projected number of about 5.5K/9. Slowey’s marginally better, with quite a bit more potential and 7K per 9 isn’t out of reach.  Regardless of average-at-best K-Rates, both Slowey and Perkins excel by posting terrific K:BB ratios.  Slowey leads the league at 12K/BB, and Perkins is currently at a respectable 2.75 K/BB.  Batters are currently hitting .380 on balls in play off of Slowey, which has inflated their overall average to .341.

Neither Slowey or Perkins consistently tops 90mph on the gun, but both can be effective control pitchers.  Slowey’s value will never be this low, so if you’re in the market for a SP — I’d bank on Slowey.

Scott Richmond ( 3.29 ERA / 4.47 FIP) just won AL rookie of the month — big ups!  I wouldn’t recommend Richmond in any league, and I haven’t the faintest clue as to why he’s succeeding or striking out almost 7 batters per 9.  He’s definitely more of a 4.50 ERA pitcher than a low-3.00 ERA pitcher.

Anyways, with the Yankees coming to town on Tuesday the Sky Dome should top 25K in attendance.

By the way, that Justin Verlander trade window is now closed until he posts a couple mediocre starts. As a general rule, your average fantasy competitor will remember about 2-starts and rely on the statistics for the rest of the evaluation.  Verlander’s ERA is going to remain above his FIP for a while, so you’ll just have to play the waiting game.

Ricky Nolasco will be taking to the bump shortly as the Florida Marlins take on the New York Mets tonight at Citi Field.  The Miami Herold has a nice little piece on Nolasco and his inability to finish off batters after an 0-2 count.  Hey Ricky, when Mortal Kombat tells you to finish him, you can’t just do a leg sweep, people will never forgive you for shit like that.  You’ve defeated him, and now must hit Forward, Down, Forward, Forward, X!!!

Ricky Nolasco Is A Great Buy-Low Candidate!

Expectations were high for Nolasco who broke-through after the All Star Break in 2008. Nolasco started 14-games posting a 3.29 ERA and a 0.99-WHIP, including a sub-3.00 ERA in the final two months of the season.

Alas, 2009 hasn’t been kind to Nolasco who’s currently 1-2 with a 6.86 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 17K, and 6BB in 21 innings pitched.

While Nolasco’s line isn’t pretty, all of the indicators for future success are there:

1. Batters are hitting .390 on balls in play against Nolasco.  While Florida’s defense is pretty terrible, one should expect this number to regress down to somewhere between .300 and .310
2. Nolasco’s Left On Base percentage is also uncharacteristically unlucky, as it sits at 57.2%. An educated guess using the projection models show that this number should be a lot closer to 70-75%
3. Nolasco’s FIP (fielder independent pitching) normalized to ERA sits at 3.82 which is noticeably lower than his actual ERA of 6.86.

While Nolasco hasn’t been quite as sparkling as he was in 2008, he hasn’t been nearly as bad as his numbers indicate thus far.

What makes Nolasco special is his penchant for throwing strikes and refusal to walk batters. This mentality lead to a spectacular 4.43 BB:K ratio in 2008. Over at MLB.com, Nolasco offers up this little tidbit:

“I’ve always thrown strikes. It’s something that I was always taught to do,” Nolasco said. “All my dad cared about was if I left it on the field. The way I took it was to throw strikes and not be afraid of anybody.

“In the big leagues, when you give guys extra outs, extra opportunities on base, they always score. It’s unbelievable. I don’t know the exact percentage, but it just seems that 100 percent of those who walk score.”

Nolasco’s repertoire isn’t devastating, but it is vast:  Nolasco throws a 4-seamer, sinker, splitter, slider, curve, and a slurve.  Nolasco has no trouble throwing any of them for strikes and has actually improved upon his First Pitch Strike Rate of 2008, raising it a full 4 percent to 68 percent (league average is about 58%.)

Nolasco’s BB/9 is up marginally from 2008 (1.78 BB/9 –> 2.57 BB/9,) but he’ll almost certainly finish the year with a walk-rate in-line with most projections of 2.00 to 2.20 batters per nine. Nolasco’s also managed to keep his K/9 on the right-side of seven batters per nine, and should remain a solid fantasy number two.

If there is one statistic that concerns me, it’s Nolasco’s GB/LD/FB rates in 2009.  You can check out Nolasco’s Fangraph Here, but the 10% increase in his Line Drive percentage, which comes directly from his FB%,  hints at hitters picking Nolasco up easier and hitting him harder.

The Mets/Marlins game is underway, and of course Nolasco looks terribly average.  He’s walked 2 batters, given up 4 hits, 3ER, and notched 3 strike-outs in 3 innings of work.  I guess Nolasco was right — those walks do always come into score.

Welcome Back Mr. Phil(ip) Hughes!

Rapper turned preacher, turned preach-rapper, Mase, would like to say, “WELCOME BACK!” to Mr. Phil Hughes.

The Phil Hughes Story:

• First Team High School All-American.
• Drafted 23rd overall by the Yankees in the First Year Players Draft.
• Baseball America ranked him the number four overall prospect in 2007.
• MLB Line: 106.2 IP, 5.15 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 81 K

Hughes’ Stuff

• 91-95 mph 4-seamer
• 87-90 mph 2-seamer
• low-70s mph Curve Ball
• low-80s mph change-up
• mid-80s Cut-Fastball / Slider

Hughes In The Minors: 2007 to 2009

Hughes garnered immense hype prior to his first big-league start as is generally the case with Yankees’ prospects.  Unfortunately, Hughes has yet to get a fair shake and has been quite mediocre in limited MLB action because the Yankees continually stock-pile free-agent pitching.  Considering Hughes’ mound-presence and major-league readiness, it’s a surprise the Yankees have relegated Hughes to spot-start duty and withering away in the minors.

Hughes has dominated minor-league hitters across all levels and continues to impress in 2009. In 19.1 innings for AAA-Scranton, Hughes is the proud owner of a 1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 19K, and has won each of the three games he’s started.  Quite simply, Phil Hughes is too damn good for AAA.

2008 was a mess for Hughes who suffered a strained oblique muscle to go along with a cracked rib-cage and a diagnosis of near-sightedness. All and all, 2008 was a year that you can probably ignore when looking at Hughes’ minor-league track-record.

2009 Fantasy Impact

Chien-Ming Wang and the case of the disappearing velocity has lead to a 2009 ERA of 34.50 and a DL-stint. With Wang on the DL, it appears as though Hughes will get every opportunity to impress making his first start on Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers.

1. If you’re a Yankees fan you should be thanking your lucky stars that he’s starting in Comerica rather than New Yankee Stadium.  While Hughes is calm, cool and collected — he’s still a 22-year old.  Pitching in Detroit should provide some distance for Hughes and a successful first start could be the beginning of a long career in pin-stripes for the perennial prospect.
2. The Yankees have a nice little schedule coming up, and if Hughes is fully inserted into the rotation he’ll pitch to Detroit, Anaheim, Baltimore, Toronto and Minnesota. If the rotation stays in line, and starts aren’t skipped; Hughes will luck-out and miss both Tampa Bay and Boston.

The stars seem to line up perfectly for Phil Hughes and facing the Angels at Yankee Stadium will be Hughes’ toughest task, but other than that, he’ll have a very good shot at success over the next month.

With everything lined up and Hughes throwing his dirty curveball consistently for strikes; the only question remaining is whether or not Hughes can convert his potential into cold-hard-statistical data.

Unlike previous years, Hughes should be able to carry-over his potent K-9 rate.  Expecting Hughes to continue striking out 1 major-league batter per inning may be asking a little too much, but he should be able to maintain a rate somewhere in the ballpark of 7.50 – 8.00 K/9 (over the next month.)

Hughes is worth rostering in all but the shallowest of leagues, even if you’re just taking a wait-and-see approach.  I really like the way that the next month stacks up for Hughes, and he seems to be in rhythm once again.

Hughes should’ve learned from experiences and after the kid gets a few wins under his belt — The Yankees will have to pry him from the rotation with a crowbar.  If  Hughes falters early, Ian Kennedy, another interesting Yankees’ Prospect that was equally as unimpressive in his 2008 big-league stint, could get the call.  Kennedy has bested Hughes with 21 strike-outs in 18 innings, and has also dominated AAA hitting, to the tune of a 2.00 ERA.

Where Hughes separates himself from Kennedy and almost every other imaginable prospect, is his control.  Hughes has only walked 3 batters, and currently owns a 6.33 K:BB ratio.

The only concern, especially the way Yankee Stadium is playing, is Hughes’ two home-runs allowed.  Kennedy excels at keeping the ball down (at least in theory,) and may well be a better fit for Yankee Stadium until the ball stops leaving the park.

My gut is telling me that Bill James’ predictions may not be that ludicrous, and the statistics seem to back it up.  Hughes has dominated AAA only to fail at the big league level before, so by no means is this a sure thing.  If you’re a risk-taker though, Phil Hughes could pay huge dividends.

Bill James Projection Model: 125 IP, 9 W, 3.38 ERA, 121 K, 1.26 WHIP, 8.71 K/9, and a 2.63 K:BB

By The Way: I do consider Standard ESPN, 10 Team Leagues, to be very shallow leagues.  It actually upsets me playing in these leagues because so few players are drafted, and it really comes down to who’s team stays healthy. Winning a league like this gives you zero bragging rights, unless you are the kind of person that likes bragging about winning money on a slot-machine.