sleepers

Rick Porcello & Trevor Cahill: Past, Present, Future.

Heading into 2009, Baseball America did everyone a favour and ranked the top-100 prospects. After dominating Olympic competition, Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and his heavy fastball jumped into the top-20 as the 11th overall prospect, just behind super-prospect Neftali Feliz. Twenty-year old Rick Porcello wasn’t all that far behind as Baseball America ranked him the 21st overall for the second year in a row.

It’s Porcello, one year removed from his 7-million dollar prep-bonus, that’s adapted to the level of competition quicker — or so it appears. Porcello’s currently 6-and-2 with a sparking 3.48 ERA which is head and shoulders above Cahill’s 4.48 ERA and 2-and-5 record. Their Fielding Independent Pitching ERAs aren’t nearly as pretty, but Porcello once against bests Cahill with a 4.67 to 5.61 advantage. Neither Porcello nor Cahill has been as dominant as expected; both posted painfully low strike-out numbers, especially given their pure stuff.  Porcello posted surprisingly low strike-out totals in his first professional season, failing to tally 6-K per 9 in High-A.  Porcello’s continued to post mediocre strike-out totals in the show, notching only 5.57 K per 9, thus far.  Porcello’s succeeded on the strength of a ridiculous 54% ground-ball rate and by limiting free passes.

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The Jordan Zimmermann Dilemma

Jordan Zimmermann busted out of the gate and got shit poppin’ by shutting down two half-decent offenses in the Mets and Braves.  Zimmermann hasn’t looked nearly as dominant in the month of May, posting a 6.98 ERA in 5 May starts.  While May’s been a very forgettable month for Jordan Zimmermann, there have been a couple bright spots: Read more

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Keep an Eye Out For…Pitchers

It’s Sunday night and I’ve been busy as hoot the last week, but here’s a quick update using FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching (normalized to ERA.)

As we all know, baseball’s a game of variables, too many variables too isolate, so we end up with standard baseball statistics lying to our faces like a cheating girlfriend.

Clayton Kershaw ( 4.91 ERA / 4.16 FIP ) is actually putting up better ratios than last year. His walk rate’s almost identical, and he’s striking out almost a full batter more per nine innings. Kershaw’s BABIP is a smidgen low (.280 BABIP,) so any improvement in his 67% strand-rate will probably be negated. When batters are only hitting 13.3% line-drives off of you, things are looking good. His WHIP will never be terrific as he’ll continue to walk around 4 BB/9, but he’s still one of the few pitchers that can get to 200K on the season.

Ubaldo Jiminez ( 5.45 ERA / 3.65 FIP) is an interesting case, as are all Colorado pitchers.  Much like Kershaw, Jiminez will post an eye-popping K/9 ratio, but struggles with command (5.45 BB/9.) Batters are currently hitting an eye-popping .344 on balls in play even though he’s allowing 21% of hits for Line Drives. When all is said and done, Jiminez should settle down and show improvement from 2008.  His WHIP will still be average at best, but there’s no way it stays at 1.61 the entire seasaon.

Chris Young ( 4.76 ERA / 3.39 FIP ) has been having some issues holding base-runners at bay.  Dexter Fowler took him for five bases a couple weeks ago, and Nick Hundley is probably still having nightmares.  Unless this starts getting to Young mentally, he’s still a terrific option in all formats.  Young is generally the BABIP-King as his career average is .269 with his past three seasons being his best ( 2006-.237 / 2007-.252 / 2008 -.266).  Young’s current BABIP sits at .314 and should definitely regress to the .265-region.  Young’s one of the few cheaper pitchers that’ll contribute across the board with 7-8K/9, 1.15-WHIP, and a sub-4.00 ERA.

Todd Wellemeyer ( 4.75 ERA / 3.80 FIP ) burst onto the  scene last year and manages to succeed without a sexy K-Rate. Batters are hitting .316 off of him after he held them to .248 in 2008.  Wellemeyer’s BABIP of .356 probably has quite a bit to do with this and should come down.  Expecting Wellemeyer to repeat his .273 BABIP of 2008 is probably asking too much, but it should regress at least to the league average. Unlike the aforementioned pitchers, Wellemeyer will only strike-out 5 to 6 batttters per 9, but he’ll keep his BB/9 down and post similiar K:BB numbers.  Obviously this limits Wellemeyer’s upside, but he’s still right on the cusp of being useful in 12-team mixed leagues.

Randy Wolf  (2.95 ERA / 3.71 FIP ) gets no love from fantasy players. If Wolf was 10 years younger, he’d be surrounded by hype.  Wolf was predicted to put up 7.50 K/9 and the last time he was in LA he posted an 8.24 K/9.  Thus far, Wolf has exceeded the projections by posting a 7.59 K/9 while only walking 2.95 batters per 9.  While Wolf’s ERA is artificially low due to a .249 BABIP, he’s still posting a league average strand rate.  Considering Randy Wolf is only allowing 16% of hits for line-drives, his lower than expected BABIP isn’t as out of proportion as you’d expect.  A lucky owner has undoubtedly picked up Wolf and will enjoy the ride while it lasts.  Wolf will eventually get unlucky and as a result post some less than spectacular statistics.  If you can get Wolf after this point, he’s going to be a steal: A Solid ERA, 1.35 WHIP, Solid Win totals, and above average strike-out numbers.  While Manny Ramirez’s suspension may cost Wolf a win, replacing his lack-luster defense will certainly help a neutral fly-ball pitcher like Wolf.

The Minnesota Twins’ Glen Perkins ( 3.73 ERA / 3.73 FIP ) and Kevin Slowey (5.50 ERA / 4.18 FIP ) are two pitchers I’m trying to acquire, with emphasis on Slowey.  Neither Perkins ( 1.75 BB/9) or Slowey (0.42 BB/9) walk batters which is an easy way to post a respectable WHIP without terrific stuff. Neither pitcher is particularly sexy, Perkins is posting an awful 4.83 K/9 compared to his projected number of about 5.5K/9. Slowey’s marginally better, with quite a bit more potential and 7K per 9 isn’t out of reach.  Regardless of average-at-best K-Rates, both Slowey and Perkins excel by posting terrific K:BB ratios.  Slowey leads the league at 12K/BB, and Perkins is currently at a respectable 2.75 K/BB.  Batters are currently hitting .380 on balls in play off of Slowey, which has inflated their overall average to .341.

Neither Slowey or Perkins consistently tops 90mph on the gun, but both can be effective control pitchers.  Slowey’s value will never be this low, so if you’re in the market for a SP — I’d bank on Slowey.

Scott Richmond ( 3.29 ERA / 4.47 FIP) just won AL rookie of the month — big ups!  I wouldn’t recommend Richmond in any league, and I haven’t the faintest clue as to why he’s succeeding or striking out almost 7 batters per 9.  He’s definitely more of a 4.50 ERA pitcher than a low-3.00 ERA pitcher.

Anyways, with the Yankees coming to town on Tuesday the Sky Dome should top 25K in attendance.

By the way, that Justin Verlander trade window is now closed until he posts a couple mediocre starts. As a general rule, your average fantasy competitor will remember about 2-starts and rely on the statistics for the rest of the evaluation.  Verlander’s ERA is going to remain above his FIP for a while, so you’ll just have to play the waiting game.

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Ricky Nolasco: Hey, Hey, You, You, I Want To Be Your Girlfriend

Ricky Nolasco will be taking to the bump shortly as the Florida Marlins take on the New York Mets tonight at Citi Field.  The Miami Herold has a nice little piece on Nolasco and his inability to finish off batters after an 0-2 count.  Hey Ricky, when Mortal Kombat tells you to finish him, you can’t just do a leg sweep, people will never forgive you for shit like that.  You’ve defeated him, and now must hit Forward, Down, Forward, Forward, X!!!

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Welcome Back Phil, Don’t Call Me Philip, Hughes.

Welcome Back Mr. Phil(ip) Hughes!

Rapper turned preacher, turned preach-rapper, Mase, would like to say, “WELCOME BACK!” to Mr. Phil Hughes. Read more

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Just In Case You Haven’t Fulfilled Your High-SB, High-K, Low-BA Quota

So Carlos Gomez, Michael Bourn, and Nyjer Morgan aren’t available in your roto-league, what ever will you do?

Luckily for you, DeWayne Wise gone-done separated his shoulder diving for a catch.  Wise, the gamer that he is, got up to throw the ball after dislocating his shoulder and managed to toss the ball about 4 feet in typical 7-year old girl fashion.

Since Brian Anderson has rather large issues with maintaining a batting average over .230, the CF job may fall to newly recalled Jerry Owens.

Owens can boogy, but he’s probably not going to hit over .260-.270.  The projection robots have Owens hitting anywhere from .259 (CHONE) to .270 (Bill James & ZiPS)

Owens will sport a moderately tolerable .50 to .60 BB to K ratio. While this isn’t stellar, it at least helps to contribute to his lack-luster .330-.340 OBP.

Owens will have to get on base to steal, but once he’s there — the fun begins:

• Jerry Owens is quick-fast, and could easily swipe 6 bases in the 15 or so games 12 Weeks!!that Wise will miss. Edit: Apparently Grade III shoulder separations, mean that both ligaments were torn, and it’ll take 12 Weeks or longer for it to heal.  Possibly longer for full strength to return.. ruh roh. WikiLink Here: Grade III Shoulder Separation.
• The Southsiders really don’t have a lead-off man this side of Chris Getz, and Getz has issues of his own getting on base.  Getz’s is currently the proud owner of a .176/.286/.286
• Ozzie Guillen is crazy, and I think everyone has the green light, all the time.  I expect to see Paul Konerko match last-years career high of 2 SB

Unfortunately, Ozzie Guillen’s craziness cuts both ways.  I wouldn’t be even slightly surprised to see one-time prospect Brent Lillibridge play centerfield.

Either way, the most likely outcome is that Brian Anderson continues to be awful, and Jerry Owens Jr. manages to snag the lead-off spot.

If Owners grabs the lead-off spot, he should be quite useful in your fantasy league.  He’ll score runs, steal bases, and try his best not to kill your batting average.  Unfortunately, Owens considers .250 a success, a rip-roarin’ success.

If you said “YES! Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gomez and Michael Bourn ARE GONE,” then you probably want to pick up Jerry Owens.

image courtesy of mandolux flickr

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Lastings Milledge Gets Put in His Place: Triple-A?

Everything looked good for Lastings Milledge heading into the 2009 season.  Manny Acta had slotted him as the lead-off hitter, he was coming off a year in which he hit .268 while homering 14 times and stealing 24 bases.

Milledge was primed to be a terrific fantasy option for your outfield. Alas, the AP reports that Lastings Milledge has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Lastings Milledge lasted all of one week as the Washington Nationals’ leadoff hitter.

Off to an 0-7 start this season after finishing with a majors-high 102 losses in 2008, the Nationals optioned their starting center fielder to Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday. Milledge was hitting .167 with no extra-base hits, one RBI, one walk and 10 strikeouts atop the batting order.

“He is still a work-in-progress as a leadoff man,” assistant general manager Mike Rizzo said during a conference call.

“This is certainly a message that we need for players to perform,” Rizzo said. “We need for players to adapt to the major leagues, and we need players to succeed.”

In 24 Plate Appearances, Milledge had accumulated 4 singles and 1 walk to go along with his 10 strike-outs.

Milledge’s line of .167/.231/.167 isn’t something you write home about.  Milledge’s effort has been called into question since his days as a top-prospect with the Mets.  Many have referred to Milledge as an all-tools player, alas in fantasy baseball — tools are all we want:  Power and Speed, please.

How long the Nationals can keep Milledge in the minors is debatable.  Manny Acta, who loves Milledge, was enamored with Austin Kearns to start the year. Watching Acta trot out Kearns ahead of Dukes, was almost painful to watch.

I tend to believe this is a wake-up call for Milledge, and nothing more.  Getting Milledge riding buses rather than chartered planes should certainly wake him up.  Unless Milledge flops in triple-A, of course, in which case who knows what’ll happen.  Milledge looks off, real off, as he’s striking out at a 40 percent clip.

This move could backfire in the faces of the Nats management if Milledge starts pressing. If he decides he needs to make an immediate impression, he’ll continue his hard-swinging ways and continue to strike out. Which could result in more fail than Elijah Dukes’ book on parenting.

Instead of sending Milledge to the minors as a wake up call, the Nationals should have sat his butt on the bench. Whether or not Milledge gets the message, is really up in the air — I see him continuing to press.

However, one thing is for sure — If Milledge gets another chance in the next month, he’s bound to impress.  With a talented youngster like Milledge, fantasy-stud-dom is just a wake-up call away.

I do, however, still question Milledge as a lead-off hitter, both skill-set wise and pyschologically.

Fantasy Impact

Depending on who’s floating around on your waiver-wire, Milledge might just be worth holding onto.  Two weeks of riding a bus around in Syracuse should wake the kid up.  While I can’t see Milledge being down too long, the Nationals outfield is crowded as hoot with Dukes, Dunn, Kearns and Willingham.

I think I might even trade to acquire Milledge in a deep league, with the hopes that he gets a call in 2 weeks. Call me stupid, but I still think Milledge finishes with better numbers than someone like Jordan Schafer.  Then again, I’ve been baffled by just about every Nationals move this year, and wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him in Syracuse for the entire year.

In other Nats news, Willie Harris was placed on the DL and Anderson Hernandez was activated.  Hernandez is worth looking at in most formats, especially if he ends up batting early in that line-up. Dukes should get the CF AB, and we’re not sure who gets the call yet.

Full MLB Article On Milledge

By the by, I enjoy how the Syracuse Sky Chiefs still are sporting Blue Jays Colors on their Uniforms.  Ball-Out.

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Spinach and Brussel Sprouts, Your Fantasy Baseball Diet

Growing up, no one likes Spinach or Brussel Sprouts; but your mom’s a violent alcoholic, so you eat them to avoid the beatings. She just wants the best for you, and apparently nutrient-packed, dark green vegetables are indeed what’s best for you.

There’s a group of baseball players that you’ll hate to have on your fantasy squad, but they’re good for you. No one likes 35-year old San Francisco Giants on their squad, but if they’re putting up numbers, you gotta suck it up and roster them. It’s painful, i know, but it’s better than getting beat.

Top Spinach and Brussel Sprouts Hitters

Catchers:

Bengie Molina – Catcher – San Francisco Giants - Yup, He’s still hitting clean-up. 95 RBI in 2008.
A.J. Pierzynski – Catcher – Chicago White Sox - Almost a lock for 65/14/60/.280

First Base

Carlos Delgado – First Base – New York Mets  - 38HR and 115 RBI in 2008.
Todd Helton – First Base – Colorado Rockies - If he’s healthy, an .850 OPS is almost guaranteed

Second Base

Placido Polanco – Second Base – Detroit Tigers – Opening Series aside, he’s impossible to strike out. Enjoy the .300+ AVG.

Third Base

Adrian Beltre – Third Base – Seattle Mariners - Ah, why not. All he does his hit 25-HR, every year.  One of the most undervalued players in the bigs.
Melvin Mora – Third Base – Baltimore Orioles – 23 HR and 104 RBI in 2008, I wouldn’t expect that again but he is who he is.

Shortstop

Christian Guzman – Shortstop – Washington Nationals - He just keeps getting on base and hitting 300. When that Nats line-up comes together, he’ll score a lot of runs.
Yunel Escobar – Shortstop – Atlanta Braves – Great OBP, not as old as the other guys, but gets no love.

Left Field

Raul Ibanez – Left Field – Philadelphia Phillies - As consistent as they come, unfortunately it’s hard to predict how well he’ll react to switching leagues.  Still a grade-A talent.
Ryan Spilborghs – Left Field – Colorado Rockies – With Carlos Gonzlaez in the Minors for the foreseeable future, Spilborghs should see AB.  Dexter Fowler may steal some of his value.

Center Field

Marlon Byrd – Center Field – Texas Rangers - Marlon gets his AB, and he’s valuable in a deeper league.  Texas is the Coors of the AL.
Coco Crisp – Centerfield – Kansas City Royals – Elsbury stole his thunder, but Crisp can steal bases. Full time AB could easily result in 13 HR, and 30 SB.

Right Field

Jose Guillen – Right Field – Kansas City Royals – Gets No Love! Probably because he’s a bit of a dick – 20 HR and 97 RBI in 2008.
Michael Cuddyer – Right Field – Minnesota Twins - Can’t stay healthy, but he’s a solid talent.  Who knows how the Delmon Young experiment will play out, but Cuddyer’s an asset to any line-up.

UTIL / Designated Hitter

Travis Hafner – Designated Hitter – Cleveland Indians – Healthy?

Others that just missed, Randy Winn, Paul Konerko, Brandon Inge, Juan Rivera, Jeff Franceour, Jeff Keppinger, Brian Giles, and Chad Tracy

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High Impact Youngsters: Nick Adenhart

Edit: I learned this morning that Nick Adenhart tragically died in a car accident late last night. It’s sad to see such a promising career end so soon.

The Huffington Post also is reporting this.

The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics Game tonight was a big one.  It’s still only the 6th Inning, but I’m not too concerned with the score.  What I am concerned with is Nick Adenhart tonight, and Brett Anderson tomorrow.

In 2008, Baseball America ranked Nick Adenhart the 24th overall prospect. One year later, Baseball America ranked Brett Anderson the 7th overall prospect in all of baseball.

If either of these two guys were called up at mid-season, there would be Scherzer or Kershaw type hype.  Adenhart was called up late last year, and brought the fail pretty hard but we won’t hold that against him.

Adenhart is still going strong in the 6th inning, and has just been replaced by Arredondo which finalizes his line of 6IP, 7H, 3BB, 5K, and 0ER.

Adenhart has always been more of a tools guy rather than a numbers guy.  His strike-out rate has regressed slowly, from an 8.41 K/9 in A-Ball to about 6.80 K/9 in both AA & AAA. These numbers combined with a lackluster 3-4 BB/9 aren’t exactly screaming TOP-50 Prospect.

It’s Adenhart’s arsenal that saves him.  Adenhart was locating his fastball, and notching it up to 93mph.  On the night, Adenhart’s fastball averaged out at 91.5mph. His devastating curveball comes in at about 75-78mph, and his change-up splits the difference coming in at about 83mph.

Adenhart threw 61 of his 98 pitchers for strikes, which works out to a respectable 62 percent. While Adenhart walked 3 batters, walk-machine Jack Cust accounted for two of them. During both of Cust’s AB, Adenhart kept the ball painted around the corners, and at least a couple of the pitches could have been strikes.

What you should take from this game is that Adenhart kept his breaking pitches down, and was able to locate all three of his pitches.  With a kid like Adenhart, you’re going to want to concentrate on his walks and he couldn’t have faced a better team in order to showcase his improved control.

I’m not one to rush to judgment, but I loved what I saw from Adenhart tonight.  He’ll probably end up getting the W, and while the 5:3  strikeout to walk ratio doesn’t scream break-out, pitch fx tells a different story.

If I was in a deep league, I’d be taking a shot on Adenhart.  You might be able to wait another start before you pick up the kid, but if he posts another solid outing (lets say, 6IP, 2ER, 5K, 2BB) a line of 12 IP, 2 ER, 1.50 ERA, 10 K and 5 BB really starts to look appealing and you may have lost your shot.

Adenhart’s going to have some serious ups and downs, but he’ll get to skip Boston and the rest of his April will look like this: @Seattle,vs.  Detroit, vs. Seattle with the possibility of Minnesota rather than Detroit.

This schedule is perfect for speculating on a kid like Adenhart.  Seattle’s got a mediocre-to-awful team, Ichiro’s hurt, and they play in an extreme pitchers park.  Even if Adenhart has major issues locating, he shouldn’t hurt you *too* badly.

Hopefully one of the pfx guys does something up on Adenhart’s start, if not I’ll fire up the ol’ pfx database and throw up some graphs.

sleepers

Taking Care of Business – A Closer Report

Taking Care of Business: The Closer Report

I need a catchy title for a bi-weekly column, preferably based on a Canadian Hit Record.  Currently, BTO’s the front runner, but that may change.

It’s the 6th Inning of the Jays and Tigers, and Brandon Inge has just hit another home-run.  That Catcher eligibility is going to mean a lot if you’re in anything but the shallowest of leagues.  Two catcher leagues, or anything over 12 teams, and Inge has value.

Closer Report:

Toronto Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan of the Blue Jays hasn’t looked right in a while. When Ryan’s on, it doesn’t matter that he’s a lefty closer with less than ideal splits.  Unfortunately, the same qualities that make him a great closer, also make him a huge injury risk.  The torque placed on his elbow and rotator cuff creates ridiculous spin on his slider, but also creates the dreaded “inverted-L”

Scott Downs, another lefty, is next in line for save opportunities.  Downs is owned in 6.1 percent of ESPN leagues, which is up 2.1 percent.

Detroit Tigers

Well, this situation should be a blast to follow. After years of being the closer of the future, Fernando Rodney’s got the gig, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll hold onto the job with a walk rate approaching 5 batters per 9.

Brandon Lyon appears to be next in line, and he’s remarkably average which isn’t the high upside you’d like to see from a speculative closer.

Youngster Ryan Perry is where the action is at:  Perry was drafted in 2008 as the 21st overall pick and made the club along with fellow youngster Rick Porcello. Perry’s an interesting case, as he didn’t seem to catch fire until his Junior season with Arizona.  Perry has all sorts of K potential, and if he can continue to impress, he may be the Tigers best option at closer.

Baltimore Orioles

George Sherrill is another lefty closer with a lot of issues. Prior to the All Star break last year, Sherrill was on fire. Sherrill came tumbling back down to earth after the break, and posted a 4.73 ERA on the year.  Sherrill registered a  BB/9 on the wrong side of 5 in 2008, and he’s only projected to improve on it marginally in 2009. The projections range from Marcel’s 4.18 BB / 9 to ZiPS 4.69 BB / 9.

In steps Chris Ray, a proven closer, who missed all of 2008 due to injury that required Tommy John. In 2006, Ray converted 33 of 38 save opportunities. Ray exhibits slightly better control and strike-out ability than Sherrill, but whether or not he’s healthy is up for debate. If Ray’s fastball isn’t sitting around 95mph, you should take a wait-and-see approach. Ray’s combination of Fastball, Slider, Change, and Splitter is ideal for the closers spot. After allowing 2 ER versus the Yanks, Ray’s ownership is down 9 percent, to 42 percent in ESPN.

Washington Nationals

Joel Hanrahan seems to have the gig, and probably has about three or four blown saves worth of leeway after saving 9 games last year for the Nats. Hanrahan added almost 4 miles per hour to all of his pitches last year, and I’d definitely be checking his pfx data in the coming days (you can do this using gameday, or scooting over to fangraphs.com).

Steven Shell is next in line after posting a 2.16 ERA in 50 IP last year. Much of Shell’s success came down to luck, but he has the stuff to vault Rivera and the other Nats RP. Shell’s currently owned in .3% of ESPN leagues.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks closer role should keep you busy. It’s one of the few cloudy situations that could actually result in steady saves, if you guess right.  The closers role is currently occupied by 30-year old Chad Qualls, but Tony Pena and Joe Rauch are waiting in the wings. Qualls is currently owned in all but the shallowest fantasy leagues (94% ESPN Ownership)

Qualls has wonderful ratios, and a 8+ K per 9 rate, and 2ish BB per 9, makes for solid closer potential.  Qualls has great splits for a closer, and held both lefties and righties under a .230 batting average.

If Qualls fails, Rauch registered 17 saves with the Nats last year but looked terrible in his brief stint with the D-Backs (6.56 ERA).  The real value comes from Tony Pena, who has all the tools to succeed, but possibly lacks the make-up. Pena brings it at 95mph, and should register a 2.5-3 strike outs per walk. Pena’s currently owned in 2.7 percent of ESPN leagues.

The interesting part of this situation comes down to pitching philosophy.  Qualls, with his ground ball tendencies, is better suited for high leverage situations and Pena with his over-powering fastball, is much better suited for the 9th inning.

At this point however, the closer job is Qualls’ to lose.  With the amount of talent the Diamondbacks have in the pen, this situation could quickly become a closer by committee with no one getting more than 12 saves.

Atlanta Braves

Just a quickie here:  Gonzalez has a good amount of experience closing, but Soriano has a very live arm.  The job is Gonzalez’s until he loses it, but with Soriano’s K-Potential he’s definitely worth a look.  Even if he doesn’t have a closers job, he’s one of few relievers that can contribute to your ERA, WHIP, and K’s while you’re waiting for him to win the gig.  Everything depends on his health, though:  Soriano’s owned in 3.6% of ESPN leagues, and you probably want to key on his BB Rate.  If he’s on, we’re talking 2 or under per 9.  If he’s off…it could balloon well above 4 or 5 walked batters per 9.

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gregg vs. Carlos Marmol.  We all know who the better pitcher is, the question is where the Cubs want their best relief pitcher to pitch. Marmol was ranked ahead of Gregg in almost all of the pre-rankings and was drafted as if he were the closer.  Marmol’s got dirty stuff, and he’ll continue to be among the percent ownership leaders for non-closing relief pitchers. Marmol’s currently sitting at 85 percent ownership, which is only 11 percent less than Kevin Gregg’s 96 percent.

Colorado Rockies

Huston Street and Manny Corpas both have closer experience, and neither one’s a sure thing.  Street had an epic melt-down last year, which lead to his departure from Oakland. Corpas doesn’t quite have the K-potential that Street does, but he does have a Coors friendly ground-ball rate nearing 50% compared to Street’s 40%.

You’ll want to keep an eye on Street’s BB-Rate, as he posted a career high 3.47 BB / 9 in 2008.

With Street’s ownership at 91 percent, and Corpas sitting at 46%, the best value may come from Taylor Bucholz who’s owned in under 1 percent of leagues.  After Bucholz’s career year in 2008, he’s one guy to keep an eye on.

Florida Marlins

Currently Matt Lindstrom (91% Owned) has the closers job, and should have at least a few blown saves in the reservoir before he gets the hook.  Florida’s bullpen is filled with a lot of young, live, arms.

Leo Nunez is one of my “he’s definitely on the roids” guys, as he’s a wiry reliever that magically added 4mph to his fastball, and consistently posts inconsistent statistics.  His K rate has ranged from 4 to 8 batters per 9. ESPN owners are prospecting pretty hard-core on Nunez, as his ownership is at almost 6 percent.

Renyel Pinto (.1%) is a lefty option that tops out at 90mph, but has solid K potential.  Unfortunately, with the K’s come an abundance of walks.

Logan Kensing (.1%) appears to fit the closers role the best, as he’ll hit 95mph on the gun with great K potential.  Like Pinto, Kensing has some serious control issues but a breakthrough could definitely be in the cards.

Oakland Athletics

I talked about Brad Ziegler and the Oakland bullpen here.

St. Louis Cardinals

Simple explanation here, and great prospecting.  Jason Motte ( 87%) has the job until he loses it, and it’ll take more than a couple blown saves for LaRussa to strip the job from Motte.  It’s going to take a lack of control. Motte has shown, and the projection models agree, that he can keep his BB Rate around 3.  With the strike-out ability he possesses, that’s a rosterable control deficiency.

If Motte falters, Ryan Franklin (2.4%) will fill in and probably get himself 5-8 SV until Chris Perez gets his shot. Perez’s ownership declined 9 percent upon his demotion to the minors, and he now sits at 8% ownership.

Seattle Mariners

I didn’t agree with Brandon Morrow’s shift to the rotation, and thankfully it hasn’t happened yet.  Morrow has all the stuff in the world to be a top-rate closer, but whether or not he’ll succeed is up in the air.

Morrow has some serious control issues, and looked AWFUL last night. Morrow walked 3 batters in 2/3rds of an inning, and nothing will get a closer pulled faster than a lack of control.  Managers can stomach walk off home runs, but they tend to have issues with walking the bases full.

Next in line is Mark Lowe, who’s owned in under 1 percent of ESPN leagues. Lowe can bring the fastball almost as hard as Morrow, and his ratios are average enough to warrant consideration.  At Lowe’s ownership, he’s definitely one of the better values.

Chad Cordero who’s currently in the Minors rehabbing is the wild card.  Cordero came into the league as one of the better pitching prospects, and didn’t disappoint.  He’s coming off injury, but if he gets the call — he’ll be ready to go.  The Mariners won’t bring him up if he’s not completely healthy, and Cordero’s time table is looking more and more advanced.

Tampa Bay Rays

Take a look at how last year unfolded, add in Isringhausen, and you’re set.  Wheeler should continue to be a decent source of cheap-as-hell saves, while contributing stellar ERA & WHIP numbers. Wheeler’s already owned in 44 percent of leagues, though.

If you’re just in it for Saves, I guess that Percival is your best bet. Isringhausen’s only owned in 1.5 percent of leagues, and he’s currently on the DL, so if you have a  DL-spot — he’ll probably provide the best bang for your buck; 6 or 7 saves seems reasonable.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Broxton obviously has this job, but Hong-Chih Kuo provides an intriguing buy.  Kuo’s only owned in 9.2% of leagues, and he shouldn’t hurt you while you’re waiting on Broxton to fail.

There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty around Broxton considering he’s essentially a tailor-made closer.

Milwaukee Brewers

I can’t picture Hoffman as a set-up man, and Villeneuva is too valuable to just pitch 1 inning.  Even if Charlie V succeeds, I have trouble believing he’ll stick at the closer spot.

Hoffman’s probably going to fall off the edge at some point this year — I’m unsure at this point if that cliff is a performance or injury barrier; quite possibly it’ll be a combination of both.

In the end, prospecting for closers is something that’s a necessity in a deep league but somewhat goofy in shallow leagues.  If you’re in a head to head league, it makes sense to prospect so long as you can make the playoffs. In roto-leagues, or points-leagues; the risk associated with prospecting for closers often times outweighs the rewards.

ESPN offers their take on the CLOSER DEPTH CHART.

Hanrahan Photo Courtesy of Scott Ablemann

Soriano & Lowe Photo Courtesy of Mark Sobba

Broxton by Photography By Rueben

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