Shin-Soo-Choo

Sacks Juiced: May 26

Dallas Braden left the Oakland loss in the fourth inning with a sore ankle.  Braden had issued an unearned run and three hits in four innings before allowing a couple walks and being pulled.  Braden believes that he’ll make his next scheduled start.

Braden’s counterpart, Jeremy Guthrie, pitched six innings allowing one earned run for the quality start.  Guthrie walked three batters while only striking out a couple. As I’ve said before, Guthrie’s a rate-stat only fantasy pitcher with a penchant for keeping his BABIP low by inducing groundballs and catchable flies.  Guthrie’s FIP, xFIP and tERA will always trend above his actual ERA but hoping for a continuation of 3.64 ERA is a pipe dream.  Jeremy Guthrie is the king of average, and you should probably expect that going forward.

Jake Peavy got lit up by the Sizemore-less Cleveland Indians.  Peavy allowed 6ER on 8H but only walked a single batter while striking out 5.  Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald went deep off of Peavy.  Peavy hasn’t looked like this since his second year in the league (2007) where he went 12-11 with an ERA of 4.11 and a FIP of almost five.  The strike-outs are still there (8.02K/9) but the walks have ballooned past 3 and a half.

Mitch Talbot lowered his ERA to 3.73 and WHIP to 1.28 with a 7 inning, 2 earned run ball game against the Sox.  At this point, shutting down the Sox is nothing to celebrate.  After starting the season with an ERA in the twos, Talbot’s had 3 bad games in his last five (Jays, Detroit, and KC).

Travis Hafner’s average is up to .281 after a couple of hits but it’s an empty average.  Hafner’s power is nowhere near his career mark and his ISO is under .150.  There’s some good news on the horizon though, just not 30HR news.  Over the last 8-games, Hafner’s managed extra bases (4Doubles, 1HR) in five.  Hafner’s working on a 12-Game hitting streak, too!  For someone that started May with a .197 AVG and .324 SLG, closing it out with a .281 AVG and .430 SLG is pretty impressive.

Jason Heyward went 2-for-4 with a couple RBIs and now has a .296/.415/.578 line which makes for one hell of a .992 OPS.

Cameron Maybin had 2 hits and a DINGER! but this is me ignoring those numbers.

Maybe Anibal Sanchez gets his own article after 6.1IP of 5H, 2ER, 6K baseball.

Life sure is good for Martin Prado who now has 32 Runs on the year after a 3hit, 1R night.  Batting ahead of Heyward et. al means 52% of your pitches will be in the zone and almost 65% will be fastballs.

Doumit hit a homer and Andrew McCutchen had a couple hits to raise his BA to .324.  McCutchen’s .371 BABIP is high for even him — he’s more of a .290 hitter.

Mike Leake magically turned 10 hits and a walk into only a single earned run.  Leake went 7.1 innings and struck out three — This kid can pitch and if this were a different year (read. no Heyward,) he’d be the odds on favourite to win the NL ROY.

Lester walked FIVE! batters and gave up one hit in his 6 inning, 0ER, 9K performance.  Despite the walks, he’s back to being Jon Lester, future Cy Young award winner. A single by Wily Aybar was the only hit on the day against Lester.  I’m starting to think that the Rays enjoy being no-hit.

James Shields allowed 2 ER, 4H, 2BB while striking out 5 over his 8 inning stint.  Shields pitched a terrific game and is still amongst the elite.

Mike Cameron is back, yet it was Ellsbury rather than Hermida that sat.

Jose Reyes stole 2 bases, had 3 hits, and scored 3 runs last night.  He is an elite shortstop, even if the power’s not there.

R.A. Dickey had 7K in 6IP but I’d rather not discuss a knuckleballer.  Dickey managed to get his way out of three bases loaded jams in the first three innings, so thing’s aren’t exactly exciting.

Derrek Lee hit a homer but the BA is still a concern — Lee’s hitting 21% LD and his BABIP is .262 so there’s definitely room for improvement. ZiPS has him hitting .280 the rest of the season.

Ryan Dempster looked great holding LA scoreless while allowing three hits while striking out seven and walking a single batter.

Clayton Kershaw only allowed 4 H and a couple of walks but it once again took him 100+ pitches to get through 6IP.

Vladdy Guerrero went off for a couple of DINGERS! in his 5RBI performance.  Hamilton and Cruz didn’t miss out on the action, each hitting one of their own.

Billy Butler continued his hot hitting with a couple hits and a walk.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gil Meche is hurt; something’s wrong with his delivery and presence. Meche gave up 6 R (4ER) on 4HR and has a 6.66 ERA on the year.

Rich Harden continues to test my patience after allowing 6R (5ER) against the Royals.  Neftali Feliz got the save and looks to be doing his thang.

Rickie Weeks went 3-for-5 with 2R, 2RBI and a HR.  Weeks still strikes out too much and doesn’t walk nearly enough but this may be a sign that his mid-May slump is over.

Recent call-up, Jonathan Lucroy, has a couple hits in his first two games.  Unfortunately, the ballsy catcher saw it fit to try and steal a base — fail.  Lucroy did steal 8 bases in A-ball a couple years ago, but I wouldn’t count on more than 1 at the MLB level.  Lucroy will more than like split the platoon with Kottaras while Zaun’s out.

Both Jhouyls Chacin and Ian Kennedy pitched a’ight games.  If I had to pick one going forward, Chacin’s electric stuff takes it.

Yah, that’s Troy Tulowitzki’s third homer in 3 games and 4th in 5 games.

In THE pitching match-up of the night, Jon Garland tossed 7IP of scoreless baseball for the win but was outpitched by Adam Wainwright who, aside from a solo-knock by Hairston Jr, pitched brilliantly.  Wainwright struck out 12 Padres while only allowing a single walk and four hits — that’s how the cookie crumbles, I guess.

Jose Bautista hit another homer, as did Jeremy Reed and Aaron Hill, but it wasn’t enough.  Aside from the Dingers!, Ervin Santana pitched a masterful game by locating his fastball and getting the Jays to chase that dirty slider.  Santana pitched a complete game 4-hitter with 10Ks — going forward, I wouldn’t be too worried about those HR.

Mike Napoli is on fire: 4HR in his last 5G and 5HR in his last 8G.

Doug Fister got yet another win from a 7 inning, 3R, 2ER, 1K performance.  This guy blows my mind.

Maybe Milton Bradley’s finally rounding into form with a homer and 3RBI last night.

Livan Hernandez is finally regressing!!!!

4ER in 5IP on 7Hits last night.

Shin-Soo-Choo

Sacks Juiced: May 22nd.

Excuse me if this is brief, I’ve always had a long-standing mantra when it comes to sports that affected last night:  The Playoffs Rule.  If there’s a playoff game on in any of the four major sports leagues, it takes precedence.  As a Canuck, I probably should be more of a hockey fan but I’m not; it’s baseball and football for me.  With that said, I was pretty excited that the hockey team that plays in a market with winter beat the hockey team that plays in California in an overtime bonanza.  Today, the Canadian team will face the American team at 3:00PM as to not disrupt the 8:20PM Basketball game.

Shin-Soo Choo hit a couple of dingers in the CLE/CIN game.  Choo has a freaky way of maintaining a ridiculously high BABIP, so don’t worry about his .355 BABIP.  The LD% is down but remember that Choo had a .367 and .370 BABIP over the past couple years.  With Choo’s walk-rate up and K-Rate down, he should have absolutely no problem posting a 20-20 season in Cleveland.

Kerry Wood gave up a homer in a non-save situation but also struck out a couple of batters.  Wood’s probably an injury risk and Chris Perez has been solid but at this point, the stuff is there.

Joey Votto stole a couple bases — that’s 6 on the year.  I think Votto’s finally entered the “elite” category of first basemen, but keep an eye on his 50% GB-Rate.

Lefty J.C. Romero retired two batters to get the save for the Phillies against the Red Sox.  Romero relieved Baez, who’d put a man on first and second, in a 4-run game.  Romero got J.D. Drew to ground-out (advancing the runners) before plonking Beltre.  Finally, Romero got David Ortiz to fly out to deep-center.  Romero was more than likely brought in to deal with the lefties and did just that; even if it wasn’t pretty.

Jimmy Rollins was back atop the lineup with Victorino hitting behind  Ibanez.

Tim Hudson shutdown the Pirates.  Hudson has a 2.09ERA and a 3.88K/3.43BB rate — guh.  Obviously, Hudson’s gawdy 66% GB-Rate has been keeping him elite but at some point, the .213 BABIP and 87% LOB-Rate will abandon him.  I don’t see this ending well.

The Orioles are actually starting to hit:  Adam Jones had his first homer since April 24th.

Javier Vazquez got well against the Mets.  Takahashi pitched a very solid game for his first start: 6IP, 5H, 1BB, 0ER, 5K.  Takahashi is now striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP with a 2.91 tERA and a 3.56 xFIP.  Definitely someone to take a look at in deeper leagues (even with a Mets’ bullpen that has WHIPs that resemble ERAs)

Colby Lewis shut down the Cubs even though he walked 3 in 6 IP.  Lewis is striking out a batter per inning and is a solid bet to post a sub-4.00 ERA on the year.  Lewis is going to his Slider quite a bit more than previous years — it’s up to 30% and the Curve’s down to 8% versus last year’s 13% SL/23% CU split.

That’s 12 Saves on the season for Neftali Feliz.  I don’t understand why Texas gave up so soon on the dream of Neftali being a starter but to each his own, I guess.

Brett Myers is now (3-3) on a 15-27 Houston team.  Seven strike-outs in seven innings certainly doesn’t hurt his value.  Myers allowed a single unearned run in the first inning.  Myers is still a grade-A douchebag but his O-Swing is up 5% and his contact-rate is down 5%.  Myers also hasn’t seen his Swinging Strike percentage at 9 in a couple of years.  Myers has been going to his slider more often which has the best downward movement in his career.

Matt Lindstrom picked up his 10th save of the year and has his BB-Rate below 2.  A 3.75 K:BB Matt Lindstrom is a very useful Matt Lindstrom.  He’s left 93% of runners stranded but every other indicator shows that Lindstrom is just better.

Mark Buerhle pitched a great game: 8IP, 3H,  3K.  Buerhle does this from time to time before reminding the world that he’s spectacularly average. Sergio Santos pitched the ninth and struck out a couple batters.  This is me tooting Carlos Quentin’s horn for the third straight day.

Nick Punto was the only Minnesota Twin to not touch home plate and score a run last night.  Nick Blackburn is now 5-and-1.  That’s that for that 15-3 rout.

Jose Guillen hit a couple more DINGERS!  Twenty-two percent of his fly-balls are going for a long ride over the fence.  Unless you’re a baseball purist, there’s absolutely no reason to dislike the hilarity that follows Jose Guillen.

Colby Rasmus tripled for his lone hit of the day.  As a Rasmus owner, I’m absolutely terrified.  Rasmus is striking out 35% of the time and has a .368 BABIP.  Rasmus has a .930 OPS and has been graded AAA by Moody’s, S  & P and Fitch — Obviously, it’s buying time. Banking Sarcasm!

I can’t believe I turned off the Blue Jays / Diamondbacks game last night.  The Diamondbacks (397K) are number one in strike-outs and the Blue Jays (361K) are number 2.  Almost as if these two things were connected, the Blue Jays are number 1 in DINGERS! (72) and the Diamondbacks are number 3 (56 HR).

Here’s the DINGERS! from last night’s game:  Fred Lewis, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, Chris Young.

In six and two-thirds innings, Trevor Cahill struck out four and only walked one.  Walks will be the biggest factor in Cahill’s development.  I love the kid.

Cliff Lee got the win after giving up 7ER?  The weird part is that the Padres didn’t take a single walk, they just aimed and fired en route to 15 hits.

Mike Sweeney hit a couple of DINGERS! but really doesn’t deserve too much attention at this point.

Austin Jackson had two more hits and is still hitting 36% line-drives.

Shin-Soo-Choo

It’s The Offense, Stupid.

Finding a break-out player is damn easy if you know what you’re looking for, and here’s what to look for (in order):

1. Does he play in a good offense?
2. Does he play in a good park?
3. Does he have a skill-set that could translate into major league success given ample playing time?

Ben Francisco of the Cleveland Indians fits the profile perfectly and has the stat-line to prove it:  Over the first couple months of the season Francisco has compiled a .275 AVG / .350 OBP / .458 SLG line to go along with 9 SB.

Here’s why I love me some Louis Ben Francisco going forward, though:  Even with Hafner and Sizemore out, the Indians still put up runs in bunches (The Indians currently rank fourth in runs scored behind only the Rays, Dodgers and Yankees.)  However, Francisco can also be incredibly useful in situations where the Indians aren’t scoring quite as many runs — In a sense, you’re hedging your bets by picking up a player like Francisco.  If he’s not scoring runs, or driving them in, I can promise you that he’ll be stealing bases.

Ben Francisco may have only stole 4 bases in 9 attempts prior to this year, but his minor league numbers show he’s quite the capable base-stealer. Over his entire MiLB career, Francisco went 124-for-158 in stolen base attempts; averaging about 20 SB a year and often surpassing that number when healthy.  Francisco also showcased potential 20-HR power and an above average slugging percentage – it’s actually quite surprising that it took Ben Francisco this long to find regular at-bats at the big-league level.

Francisco’s a legit 20/20 guy, but he does have flaws.  The main concern has been his lack of contact or high K-Rate, and his lack of a batter’s eye. Even while seeing fewer pitches in the zone in 2009, Francisco has managed to swing less, make better contact in the zone, and maintain his relatively high line-drive percentage of 19%.  While Francisco’s 20% K-Rate is still sub-par, he’s more than capable of functioning at a .40 – .50 BB:K rate, given his LD%.

Francisco’s luck indidcaters are generally a wash, his .315 BABIP and 10.2 HR/FB percent are nothing spectacular one way or another.  What’s intriguing about Francisco is his brand-spankin’ new line-up spot with the rash of Indians injuries.  Francisco’s spent the previous two games batting 2nd in the line-up squished between the hot-hitting Asdrubal Cabrera and the healthy Victor Martinez. Whether or not Francisco can stick in the two-hole largely depends on this stretch of games that Sizemore’s missing.  Even if Francisco gets thrown back to the ass end of the Indians line-up, he’ll still be batting between the Garkos and Shoppach’s of the world which isn’t all that terrible.

Of the players with 9 or more steals, only Jason Barlett, Matt Kemp, Torii Hunter, Derek Jeter, Brian Roberts, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth, Vernon Wells, and Mark Reynolds can lay claim to 5 or more HR.  I’ve obviously tinkered with the stats, but it does showcase Francisco’s unique blend of power and speed.  All that’s realistically missing, assuming Francisco can maintain a .270 BA (which shouldn’t be a problem,) are the RUNS and RBI.

In fantasy baseball, owners take a lot of stupid risks that often yield very little pay-out.  Rather than taking a risk on an often injured player or a 20-year old kid, I’d much rather bet that Ben Francisco finds a way to permanently move up in the line-up.  If Francisco sticks atop the Indians’ line-up, his 65 RBI / 65 R line suddenly becomes a 75 RBI / 80 RUN season without Francisco doing a damn thing.

Considering Francisco’s only seen 32 at-bats against left-handed pitchers and is currently exhibiting a reverse platoon split, there’s definitely room for improvement. I’m sure when all’s said and done, Francisco will come tantalizingly close to posting a 20/20 season and there’s a  50/50 shot that each of the starting outfielders for the Cleveland Indians post 20/20 seasons. Shin-Soo Choo may be garnering the majority of the hype with his .296 / 30 R / 7 HR / 31 RBI / 6 SB – line, but Ben Francisco isn’t a bad option either.

Shin-Soo-Choo

Diva On A Dime: Fantasy Baseball Edition

Diva on a Dime is a downright awful show, that I believe is truly 100% Canadian Goodness. If left unchecked, Canadian televisions stations would just play American TV shows all day, every day — this is how we end up with CANCON, which forces Canadians to sit through hours of awful television.

Anyways, it’s time to create a fantasy baseball roster without using a single player drafted in the top-200 picks according to ESPN’s Average Live Draft Position.  Obviously, with fun little gimmicks like this, we’re going to be going high-risk/high-reward.

Diva On A Dime Hitters (ADP>200)

C: Kelly Shoppach – Pick 211: Shoppach had 21 homers in 352 AB. A lot of people are going to shy away from him because he doesn’t have a spot to play. A healthy Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko really clog up his options.  Lucky for you, good hitters find spots in the line-up.

If you think all three of the aforementioned players stay healthy, then maybe go with Ramon Hernandez (Pick 202) or Jeff Clement (Pick 245).  I’d also take a risk on Saltalamacchia who doesn’t even register with ESPN at this point.

1B: Big Ole Billy Butler – Pick 242: At this point in the draft it makes sense to go with a lighter hitting first baseman with a solid batting average, rather than a masher like Mike Jacobs / Adam LaRoche. Butler’s competition comes from Loney (ADP: 166), Kotchman (ADP: 237) and a few over-the-hill sluggers (Helton, Giambi, Konerko).

Butler however brings the best value, and best power potential of the doubles-machines.  Loney has the better line-up, and batting directly after Manny will allow him ample opportunity to drive in runs, but Butler has a shot at 22-25HR.  Toss in his .300+ average, and an improved Royal’s squad and we have our first baseman.

Bill James’ Projection Model has Butler at: 73 R/ 18HR / 87 RBI / .295 BA with 15 SB — just kidding, but Zips and Marcel have Butler stealing 2 bases in 3 attempts.

2B: Felipe Lopez – Pick 216: I’m all over Lopez like white on rice. 2005 was a 23HR season, and 2006 brought us 44SB.  Lopez is still only 28 years old (turns 29 in May) but it seems like he’s been around forever.

With Lopez on a good team, and apparently wanting to play again — I expect big things.

SS: Khalil Greene – Pick 224: Greene has been smashing the hell out of spring-training pitching to the tune of a .400 average and .560 SLG percentage.  I’ve been high on Greene all winter, and this doesn’t change my mind.  I wouldn’t rate him terribly higher based on these spring training stats because he’s still Khalil Greene, which you can clearly see by comparing his .400 AVG to his .429 OBP.

MI: Orlando Cabrera – Pick 204: I was tempted to go with Elvis Andrus (ADP 228) here, because we’re going to need some serious steals — but we’ve already got Greene killing our BA.

I like Cabrera in the new and improved Oakland line-up, and expecting 20SB to go along with a solid .280 BA, and at least decent Run totals should fill the hole.

The potential for Andrus and his 50SB is tantalizing.

3B: Edwin Encarnacion – Pick 198: Hey, up until a couple days ago he was ranked right at 200th overall.  Every thing’s in-line for a break-out season. I did a write-up on Edwin a couple days ago, it’ll do all the ‘splainin’

CI: Mark Reynods – Pick 202: We need 30 HR from this spot, so this comes down to a brutal battle between Reynolds and Jason Giambi. I’d like to take a chance of Kendry Morales, who doesn’t even register on ESPN — but I’ll save him for later.

The battle between Reynolds and Giambi comes down to BA, and strangely enough Reynolds wins. All of the projection models believe his 2008 average of .239 was a mistake, and he should rebound to anywhere from .249 to .269.  I can live with that, so long as the HR, R, RBI are there.

We also just nabbed ourselves 10 more SB.

OF: Nelson Cruz – Pick 202: Bill James has him coming in at 31HR, 81R, 92RBI with a .280 average.  While i’m not completely sold, and I still somewhat see Cruz as a quad-A player — Cant turn him away at pick 202.

OF: Elijah Dukes – Pick 226: Oh Me, Oh My.  Dukes has all the talent in the world, and could easily go 25HR/25SB but he could also hit 3 HR and steal .75 Bases.  This is the high-risk/high-reward thing I was talking about.

OF: Chris Dickerson – Pick, I dont Know: Let’s drop the bomb and select another potential 25/25 guy with a whole lot of risk.  BJ Robot has him at 37 Steals and 21 HR! I’ll take that.  His skill set is nice, and Reds fan’s will appreciate him.

UTIL: Shin-Soo Choo – Pick 204: Might as well throw in another solid Power / Speed combo guy with a solid average.  At this point, the outfield and util spots have really saved this team.  Choo’s on many folks lists to break out in 2009, and I can’t blame ‘em.

…now onto pitching

SP1: Brandon Morrow – Pick 217: I thought with the hype Morrow was getting he’d be way above this point.  Take Morrow and Run.  He’s got a great K-rate, and while he’s a bit wild, don’t worry be happy.

SP2: Chris Young – Pick 219: Chris Young has bad luck, but isn’t a huge injury concern unless you think he’s been psychologically broken by that Pujols line-drive to the face. With Young you’re getting the potential for a Golden-WHIP (1.13 in 2006, and 1.10 in 2007) and at least 8K per 9.

SP3: Ubaldo Jiminez – Pick 227: You’ll notice we’re loading up on high-strikeout pitchers.  With the lack of saves available to us at this point, we’re probably going to have to punt the category and thus draft some very solid late-inning relievers.  They’ll be bringing low-era, low-whip to offset our massive control issues.

Jiminez is posed for a break-out year, even if half his games are pitched at Coors.

RP1: Jason Motte – Pick 210: Motte’s value will keep rising with the news that he’s won the closer role over Chris Perez, in St. Louis. We’ve got a shot at some saves here, so we might as well take it.

RP2: Jose Arredondo – Pick 233: There’s still a couple closers, but that’s no fun.  If you’re into Huston Street or George Sherrill, the choice is yours. At this point though, Arredondo brings a lot of goodies, like a solid era and a very good K-rate.

Expecting a return to 10-win-land is ridiculous, but pitching in late relief for the Angels will provide him with plenty of chances to nab those random-wins or even saves.  He should be one of the first non-closers off the board.

P: John Maine – Pick 226: Maine regressed in every possible category last year.  If he levels out, you should expect a sub-4.00 ERA, 180K, and round about 1.30ish WHIP.  This is pretty solid for a player who’s upside could easily eclipse these numbers.

P: Manny Parra – Pick 234: I’m banking on Parra improving in 2009, along with him pitching a full-season. Parra’s a solid lefty that should be able to put up 8ish K per 9. The K:BB ratio is only going to be around 1.5, which’ll limit your WHIP to around 1.40ish with a good amount of upside.  Parra won’t repeat the 1.54 disaster  that he called his 2008 WHIP, again.

P: Jared Weaver – Pick 216: Weaver was once a top-prospect that all the fantasy folk were drooling over.  Now, he seems to be an afterthought.  The man’s got terrible hair, but all the potential in the world.  His nearly 8 K per 9, combined with a very solid 2.81 strikesouts per walk, makes for a steal at this pick.

P: Hong Chih-Kuo – Pick 244: I figured I’d toss another reliever in here that’ll put up some solid rate stats.  We’ve got all these high-strikeout, high-walk rate starters that we need to offset. Kuo struck out 96 to only 21 walks in 2008, and in doing so posted a beautiful 4.57 K:BB ratio.

You can use this as a list of sleepers, or just something to kill time but each of these players are available after pick 200 and each could contribute to your team in even the shallowest of standard-leagues.

Shin-Soo-Choo

Top Fantasy Baseball Outfielders for 2009: Top 40? Top 60? Top 100? Who Knows.

There’s a lot of solid outfielders that can contribute to your fantasy squad.  Outfielders are like Starting Pitchers, there’s just too damn many of them. I tend to believe that ranking OF against each other is tough, as you have to choose a strategy and adjust your OF selections to fit that strategy.

The outfield positions will bring the most value to the table, and you’re liable to find the biggest steals here, as in most cases defense isn’t the largest priority.

Now, onto fantasy baseball’s 2009 top-whatever outfielders.

1. Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Grady Sizemore	634	33	38	101	90	0.268	0.374	0.502	0.75	0.876

Sizemore tops the list, at least for now. The only fault on Sizemore is his batting average, which he more than takes care of with a .374 OBP.  Most people are more than willing to live with a .275 average, as long as the other categories are amazing.  Sizemore is almost assured another 30/30 season, and his RBI and RUN totals should increase with an improved Indians offense.

If you’re planning on grabbing cheap steals later in the draft, which is a solid option, maybe Sizemore isn’t the choice for #1.  You’d probably be safer hedging your bets with a high BA guy like Hamilton, Holliday, or Manny as drafting a Carlos Gomez, Michael Bourn, or Jerry Owens tends to lead to a rather predictable drop in BA.

If you’re a believer in drafting well rounded fantasy players, then Sizemore is a great building block — but personally I find you pay more for the all around guys.

2. Manny Ramirez – Free Agent, Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Manny Ramirez	552	37	3	102	121	0.332	0.43	0.601	0.7	1.031

This could get ugly, but Manny Ramirez is one hell of a  baseball player.  It looks as though the Dodgers wont be giving many anything more than a year or two, so you can bet Manny will be giving his best.

If the Dodgers pay Manny too little, he’ll decide he doesn’t care for this whole baseball-game.  If they reward his idiocy with a long term contract, god help them because Manny will play when Manny wants to play.

With that said, Manny Ramirez isn’t going to run but everything else is the picture of perfection. In a potent Dodgers line-up his R and RBI totals should be terrific.  Manny’s batting average can fix a lot of high risk/reward guys and gives you a terrific safety net.

If Manny actually plays for the Dodgers, he’ll be better than Braun or Hamilton. If Manny and Boras decide to keep shitting the bed, who knows how far he’ll drop.

3. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Braun	611	37	14	92	106	0.285	0.335	0.553	0.33	0.888

Ryan Braun is a solid pick here, and he’s average across the board when you compare him to the elite guys. He’ll hit somewhere around 35HR, and steal somewhere around 10-15 bases. Braun’s got the potential to steal up to about 20 bases, but who knows if he’ll run that much.

The .285 average, and a combined 200 runs and rbi make a solid outfielder. Braun’s still very young and he’ll continue to improve so long as he maintains his plate discipline.

4. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Josh Hamilton	624	32	9	98	130	0.304	0.371	0.53	0.51	0.901

Hamilton was a steal last year, and now he’s ranked as the fourth best outfielder.  Who know’s if the wheels with just fall off, but I suppose you have to look at Hamilton in the same light as a productive sophomore.

There’s no sophomore slump in sight, and you can place a bit more confidence in his abilities than you would a normal rookie.

Hamilton proved to be an early season RBI machine, and Texas’ line-up is quite the machine. A 300 average to go with 35 HR, and ridiculous RBI numbers seem like a solid bet.

A .5 BB/K ratio should be enough to keep your doubts at bay.  Look for Hamilton to be productive throughout the season, and there’s no reason to expect a return to past-drug-addicted-form.

5. Matt Holliday – Oakland Athletics

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Matt Holliday	539	25	28	107	88	0.321	0.409	0.538	0.71	0.947

Matt Holliday’s numbers last year were terrific for his 539 AB, however without the trade to Oakland — things could change.

There was a recent article on fangraphs examining whether or not Holliday’s stolen base numbers would drop with the switch to Billy Beane’s Money-Ball loving style, and the answer was no. If Holliday continues to be successful stealing bases, the Athletics will let him run.

Aside from that, Holliday is going to an extreme pitchers park and leaving Coors’ field.  Problem.  Holliday is also switching leagues, and may take a while to adjust to American League pitching. Problem.

With that said, Holliday is a great ball player with a great eye.  He’ll still produce solid HR numbers, but most of his power will translate to gappers and extra-base hits.  This is good news for his RBI totals.

Since the departure of Giambi, the A’s really haven’t had anyone to knock in the trillions of guys they get on base with walks.  Now, they have that guy in Holliday to go along with the return of Jason Giambi.  Good news for A’s fans, Good news for Holliday owners.

6. Carlos Beltran – New York Mets

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Beltran	606	27	25	116	112	0.284	0.376	0.5	0.96	0.876

Beltran’s a solid player, and you could rank him as high as second in this list. The top-tier outfielders really tend to blend together, and you should draft one based on your strategy in the later rounds rather than who you think will perform best.  Beltran and Braun tend to be guys that’ll just contribute across the board, so if you’re solely drafting value: these are your guys.

Rarely will you win a draft with your first or second round pick, so it may be wise to play the safest bet on the board which favours Beltran.  Beltran’s 2005 mid-life crisis seems like eons ago, and he’s become a solid bet for 30/30 each and every year. While he’s never managed to get there as a member of the Mets; It’s a fair assumption to say his HR and SB will add up to around 60.

There appears to be a slight decline in Beltran’s power, but 30HR seems to be about the standard mark for prediction models.

…and then the sure things ended.

7. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
B.J. Upton	531	9	44	85	67	0.273	0.383	0.401	0.72	0.784

Upton’s numbers are enticing when you see how many at-bats he managed.  Maybe injuries continue to plague Upton, but more likely he’ll Man-Up and get it done.

The SLG percentage is worrisome for someone who was supposed to have it all, but as with many young players — he’ll grow into it.  All of the other indicators are there, and if you’re looking for a little bit of risk with a lot of upside look no further.

Upton could easily hit 50 steals to go along with 20 HR.  Lets just hope he stays healthy.

8. Alfonso Soriano

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alfonso Soriano	453	29	19	76	75	0.28	0.344	0.532	0.42	0.876

Everything looks good in Soriano land, other than the 453 AB.  Soriano is another guy who’s got a shot at going 30/30 but he’s far from a sure thing.  Soriano should be higher, especially if he finds his swing early in the season.

Playing in a stacked Cubs line-up keeps the risk to a minimum.  Basically, we’ve got ourselves another referendum on whether or not Alfonso Soriano can stay healthy.

9. Carlos Quentin – Chicago White Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Quentin	480	36	7	96	100	0.288	0.394	0.571	0.83	0.965

There comes a time in every can’t miss prospects life, where he’s just got ball the fuck out.  Carlos Quentin decides last year was that time.  If not for an injury that annoyed the hell out of fantasy owners enjoying the ride: Carlos Quentin would have been your AL MVP.

10. Jason Bay – Boston Red Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jason Bay	577	31	10	111	101	0.286	0.373	0.522	0.59	0.895

Commence operation over-valued. We have lift-off.  I’ve yet to play in a fantasy league where a Red Sox player is drafted ’round ’bout where they should go.  Jason Bay is a stellar talent, but odds are he’ll go too high.

If Bay doesn’t go in the first round, he’ll contribute across the board. So much so that his R and RBI totals will just look dandy with a health Red Sox line-up surrounding him for an entire year.

11. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Matt Kemp	606	18	35	93	76	0.29	0.34	0.459	0.3	0.799

It’s fun to predict improvement for absolutely no reason other than a gut feeling and the time-tested, but useless, mantra: “He’ll get better with age”.

Matt Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio isn’t pretty and his OBP of .340 isn’t all that sexy when you consider he’s a .290 hitter.

But Kemp’s young, and he’s definitely got a whole-hella lot of upside.  His HR should be closer to his steals this year. Whether or not that means his HR go up or his steals come down, is up to you.

12. Carlos Lee – Houston Astros

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Lee	436	28	4	61	100	0.314	0.368	0.569	0.76	0.937

Lee’s going to be a steal, wherever you draft him.  While throwing together this list, I even forgot about his all around awesomeness.

A .937 OPS will get it done, and done well. 28 HR in 436 AB also tends to get it done.  After so many years of 600+ AB, Bill James has him the highest at 573 AB for the 2009.  If Carlos returns to form and tops 600 AB, he’ll be a top 3 or 4 OF and probably put up Josh Hamilton type numbers.

Just keep an eye on Carlos Lee’s health and definitely mark him down in your under-ranked superstar category.

13. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Markakis	595	20	10	106	87	0.306	0.406	0.491	0.88	0.897

Nick Markakis is another guy with all-world talent, who can smash the shit out of the baseball if he chooses that option.

With an OBP of over .400 in 2008, he’s primed for a break out year — and I do mean breakout.  I have Markakis putting up stellar numbers in an Orioles offense that’ll prove its worth.  The Orioles seem to have all the pieces required to put together a solid season on offense.

Nick Markakis should hit 30 HR and drive in a bundle.  Maybe I’ll move Markakis up at some point.

…and now onto the mess that is stolen bases

14. Jacoby Elsbury – Boston Red Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jacoby Ellsbury	554	9	50	98	47	0.28	0.336	0.394	0.51	0.729

Ellsbury can boogy, but there’s no reason to think that he’ll improve dramatically on his HR numbers. Somewhere between 8 and 13 HR for the 2009 season seems about right, but you’re not buying Ellsbury based on HR.

Ellsbury’s stolen base numbers should float somewhere in the high-forties to low-fifties, and his runs scored should improve.

15. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ichiro Suzuki	686	6	43	103	42	0.31	0.361	0.386	0.78	0.747

Everything that Ichiro can control will remain consistent with career numbers, but I haven’t the slightest clue whom Ichiro Suzuki is going to drive in or who’s going to knock him in.

Maybe this is the year that Ichiro says screw it, and knocks out 20 HR.  He’s definitely got the power, but I’d expect a downturn in numbers not an upswing.

16. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Shane Victorino	570	14	36	102	58	0.293	0.352	0.447	0.65	0.799

A few more HR than Ichiro and a few less steals.  The BA isn’t going to top .300 but Victorino is a solid player, that’ll greatly benefit  from  a Jimmy Rollins comeback-year.

If Victorino can get off to a better start than 2008, he’ll have a terrific year and more than likely be a top tier-2 outfielder.

…and now back to reality

17. Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Vladimir Guerrero	541	27	5	85	91	0.303	0.365	0.521	0.66	0.886

How the mighty have fallen, or aged, or have just been plagued by a back-pain induced slump. 150 Games seems about right, which should bring Guerrero closer to the 30 HR, 100 R mark than he was last year.

Everything else should be the Guerrero you’ve come to expect.  About 110 RBI, and a .310 batting average.  There’s a good amount of risk that comes with Guerrero, but there’s also an insane amount of reward.

The benefit of rostering Guerrero, is you’ll generally know ahead of time when he’s getting a day off.

18. Magglio Ordonez – Detroit Tigers

This isn’t annoying. I type for 2 hours only to have my data erased by WordPress. God love it.  Remember when Magglio hit .363 and drove in 130-something runs?  How about we average the last two years of his career and stick him here.  The Detroit Tigers will be better.

19. Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays

Remember when Carl Crawford was a first round pick in almost every league? He’s still that good.  2008 was a down-year but he’ll fix that quick-fast.

20. Curtis Granderson – Detroit Tigers

Remember when everyone talked about Granderson being the only guy to hit x number of doubles, triples, and homers..  ever?  Well he started last year like crap, and just managed to be average for the majority of the year.  He’ll score a lot of runs, and come pretty close to the 25+ bases he stole 2 years ago.

21. Alex Rios – Toronto Blue Jays

Remember how the scouts said Alexi Rios was a 4.5 tool player, and that he should develop power to go with his massive frame? Well, instead of improving on his 24 HR season, he regressed but managed to steal 30+ bases.  Screwy, huh?

22. Adam Dunn – Free Agent

Dunn’s a top 10 OF if your league uses OBP instead of average. Dunn’s also a great choice if you decide to go ahead and punt average.  However, if you’re just playing it based on value you’re going to need 2 guys to cancel out the potential for another .240 season from Dunn. The upside is he only registers 500 AB, making that .240 a bit more tolerable.

23. Corey Hart – Milwaukee Brewers

I hate great white hopes, especially fast ones.  Hart Swings at everything and it’s annoying, but he gets the job done none the less. He’s got a boat-load of upside and he’ll be cashing in on that upside sooner rather than later.

24. Raul Ibanez – Philadelphia Phillies

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Raul Ibanez	635	23	2	85	110	0.293	0.358	0.479	0.58	0.837

Ibanez is undervalued each and every year, and yet he produces each and every year.  This may be a reach, but the switch to Citizens Bank Ballpark should do more than offset the league switch.  Maybe you’re best bet is to trade for Ibanez a month into the season before he’s found his grove.

Either way, in that line-up Ibanez is going to be dangerous. Some of his doubles, will turn into homers as soon as he realize he’s no longer in baseball hell.

25. Bobby Abreu – Free Agent

Where does he land? I dont know. Rumors have him going to the south side of Chicago.  I wouldn’t expect 20/20 but this old guy can still boogy.

26. Jermaine Dye – Chicago White Sox

An oldy but a goody! Expect another slight decline in Dye’s numbers

27. Nate McLouth – Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m not sure if he’ll repeat the power numbers, but bad teams seem to steal.  I’m just not sure if he can repeat.

28. Ryan Ludwick – St. Louis Cardinals

Same holds true for Ludwick.  Batting between Pujols and Glaus will make even the worst power-hitter viable.  With Glaus out, who know’s what kind of pitches Ludwick will see in 2009.

29. Johnny Damon – New York Yankees

Will Johnny Damon stay healthy in a massively crowded Yankees outfield / designated hitter mess? That is the question.

30. Torii Hunter – Anaheim Angels

He just keeps producing.  In 6 years, this is what Chris Young will be.

31. Pat Burrell – Tampa Bay Rays

A change of scenery should be nice for Burrell. Hopefully he can break his streak of being down-right awful after posting a great season.

32. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks

Speed, Power, everything you look for in a young kid.  Unfortunately he has no eye, which terrifies most of the younger Diamondback fans.

33. Brad Hawpe – Colorado Rockies

Improved on his splits, and has a boat-load of power.  Could finally put it together?

34. Xavier Nady – New York Yankees

Another piece of the crowded Yankees outfield.  If there is one thing that’s certain in life, it’s that Xavier Nady will have a ridiculous first month and a half of the season.

35. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros

Still young enough to remember what it’s like to hit above .300 with power and speed.

36. Lastings Milledge – Washington Nationals

Breakthrough year? Yes please.  I like each and every part of this Nationals outfield, with Milledge leading the way.

37. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds

When you’re universally considered one of the top prospects in baseball, you’re normally pretty good.  Bruce had a mediocre 2008 after a torrid start to the season.  Temper your enthusiasm, but he’ll be great as soon as this year.

38. Jack Cust – Oakland Athletics

Power o’ Plenty.  With the amount of low-average guys out there, i’m starting to think that this may be the perfect year to punt AVG.

39. Nick Swisher – New York Yankees

With that said, if you’re going to go ahead and punt average go ahead and pick Nick.  Swisher’s skill-set remained the same, but he got very very unlucky.  He’ll score a lot of runs, and get on-base a tonne.

40. Eric Byrnes – Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks outfield situation is pretty confusing, but when Byrnes plays he’s a difference maker.  Since he’s already injured both his left and right hamstring, there’s nothing left for him to hurt — right?

41. Jason Werth – Philadelphia Phillies

I’m a huge Jason Werth fan, and i’m hoping he gets the lions share of the AB in right field.  Geoff Jenkins is nice, but he isn’t a body double for “The Edge”.

42. Mike Cameron – Milwaukee Brewers

Another low-average guy that you may just want to own. He hit 25 HR and stole 17 Bases in only a 140 games last year.  If you can deal / cope with the sure-fire sub-.250 average, you’ve got yourself a steal.

43. Vernon Wells – Toronto Blue Jays

Vernon was plagued by injuries, again.  He wont run, because he’s always hurt.  He wont hit long bombs, because he’s already gettin’ paid.  One of the most overpaid, overvalued, plays in the game finally sings a redemption song. Maybe he gets back to topping 30HR and 15SB.

44. Milton Bradley – Chicago Cubs

An OPS machine, that has a temper. Where you value him depends largely upon how many games you think he’ll play.  I cannot make that decision for you, but I’m banking on 130 G.

45. Shin-Soo Choo – Cleveland Indians

The BABIP is ridiculous, which leads to all his other stats being stupid silly.  The hype-machine is hungry,  so  I shall feed it.

46. Jose Guillen – Kansas City Royals

I’ve got a soft-spot in my heart for this former top-prospect.  Mainly because he can do absolutely everything you’d want from an outfielder. Guillen never walks, and he swings for the fences.  If Guillen can keep his BA around the .290 range — he’s good to go.  Personally, I’m willing to admit that I have Guillen rated too high, but he does hit 25 HR and drive in almost 100 every year.

47. Elijah Dukes – Washington Nationals

My most favouritest sleeper out there.  Dukes can ball, but he’s got a whole lot of Guillen in him.  If he can stay on the field, and out of stank-ass cooters, he’ll have a break-out year.

48. Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins

Here we go again with another low-average gentleman.  Gomez is quick-fast and will steal you 40 bases in 2009.  He’s just gotta keep that average above .25o become a very useful cog.

49. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks

He’s a year away, but he could put up solid numbers through the 2009 season.  As mentioned earlier, the Diamondbacks situation is confusing and I’m not sure how many .250 hitters they plan on rostering.  There’s really no harm in taking a shot on Upton at this point because if he hits, he’s really going to hit.

50. Hideki Matsui – New York Yankees

The Yankees DH. ‘Nuff said.

51. Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins

Stolen from the Tigers, Cameron Maybin’s got a tonne of athletic ability but no hitters eye in sight. If he can retain the starting field gig for the entire year, 40 SB and 20 HR could be a possibility.  Maybe a pipe dream.  Hell, everyone’s gotta take some risks.

52. Andre Ethier – Los Angeles Dodgers

Can hit.  Not quite sure how the Dodgers situation will play out, but it seems as though Ethier always finds a way to work himself into the line-up.  You could do worse.

53. Delmon Young – Minnesota Twins

Delmon lost his power stroke and started hitting copious amounts of ground-balls.  He’s still a Grade-A hunk of beef and he’s got muscles on-top of muscles, but somethings off.  If Delmon realizes he’s awesome, the improvement wont come in baby-steps. It’ll come in giant, 30HR season type leaps.

54. J.D Drew – Boston Red Sox

Great line-up, Can’t stay healthy.

55. Rick Ankiel – St. Louis Cardinals

Ankiel is making a nice transition, but when is this party going to end.  He should be the one benefiting from the loss of Glaus, and I woudln’t be surprised to see Ankiels numbers go up and Ludwicks dip.

56. Travis Snider – Toronto Blue Jays

Far too high, but the potential is crazy nutty.  In case you haven’t noticed, I’m a Jays season ticket holder who <3s the Travis Snider.

57. Willy Taveras – Cincinnati Reds

Run Willy Run.  He’ll score a good amount of runs in the Cincinnati line-up and he’ll steal just as many bases as you’d expect. I expect 55.

58. David Murphy – Texas Rangers

I take this back, I didn’t mean it.

59. Adam Jones – Baltimore Orioles

Jones should improve and Orioles fans can continue mocking Mariners fans.  God  what a terrible trade.

60. Jeremy Hermida – Florida Marlins

When your swing is as sweet as Hermida’s you cant be this awful. Damnit, nutsac stop striking out.

61. Josh Willingham – Washington Nationals

The final piece of the Nationals OF should knock in the other two pieces.  Maybe Willingham can still play Catcher?

62. Coco Crisp – Kansas City Royals

He should steal, and he can still play.  I like the Royals quite a bit this year. They shoudl be fun to watch.

63. Jeff Francoeur – Atlanta Braves

Hrm.  Can Francoeur be this bad?  He coudln’t hit the broad side of a barn last year.  All signs point to yes, he can be this bad.  I have a hunch he’ll break out, but do you have a hunch?

64. Michael Bourn – Houston Astros

He’ll steal bases and improve with the stick. If you’ve sacraficed steals early in order to nail down a solid BA, it’s now time to grab a guy like Bourn.

65. Juan Pierre – Los Angeles Dodgers

This is a tentative agreement between me and Juan Pierre assuming that Manny isn’t signed.  If Pierre plays, he’ll get on base with cheap little singles and then proceed to steal.

66. Kosuke Fukudome – Chicago Cubs

Pitchers adapted to him, and now it’s his turn to adapt to the pitching.  He should be solid, I promise you.  If you’re board take a look at his month by month BABIP, it’s wacko.

67. Jason Kubel – Minnesota Twins

The Kubes. I draft this scrub every year, but not this year.  Which means Kubel goes for 30 HR and a .285 average.

68. Chris Dickerson – Cincinnati Reds

Well, he started to impress me, and then stopped. Keep an eye on the situation over in Cincinnati, it could get interesting.

69. Adam Lind – Toronto Blue Jays

Realistically, Lind and Snider should be switched on this list.  But we don’t deal in realism. Lind should be in for a super-solid season, and he’ll be a steal come draft day.

…and there comes a time where you decide whether or not you want someone with a starting gig for an entire season or crazy-awesome potential.

70. David DeJesus – Kansas City Royals

71. Cody Ross – Florida Marlins

72. Matt Joyce – Tampa Bay Rays

73. Randy Winn – San Francisco Giants

74. Felix Pie – Baltimore Orioles

75. Jerry Owens- Chicago White Sox

76. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies

77. Michael Cuddyer – Minnesota Twins

78. Daniel Murphy – New York Mets

79. Ryan Church – New York Mets

80. Melky Cabrera – New York Yankees

81. Marcus Thames – Detroit Tigers

82. Nelson Cruz – Texas Rangers

83. Fred Lewis – San Francisco Giants

84. Juan Rivera – Anaheim Angels

85. Denard Span – Minnesota Twins

86. Chase Headley – San Diego Padres

87. Ryan Spilborghs – Colorado Rockies

88. Jerry Hairston Jr. – Cincinnati Reds

89. Colby Rasmus – St Louis Cardinals

90. Franklin Gutierrez – Seattle Mariners

91. Ben Francisco – Cleveland Indians

92. Matt LaPorta – Cleveland Indians

93. Steven Pearce – Pittsburgh Pirates

94. Nyjer Morgan – Pittsburgh Pirates

95. Seth Smith – Colorado Rockies

96. Luke Scott – Baltimore Orioles

97. Aaron Rowand – San Francisco Giants

98. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates

99. Brian Giles – San Diego Padres

100. The Entire Oakland A’s outfield, ugh. Seriously: Davis, Patterson, Sweeney, Buck, and Cunningham.

Keep an eye on…

101. Ryan Freel – Baltimore Orioles

102. Josh Anderson – Atlanta Braves

103. Eric Hinske – Pittsburgh Pirates

104. Jason Heyward (wishfull thinking) – Atlanta Braves

105. Skip Schumaker – St. Louis Cardinals

106. Mark Teahan – Kansas City Royals

107. Gary Matthews Jr – Anaheim Angels

108.  Andruw Jones – Parts Unknown

Shin-Soo-Choo

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers By Team

Fantasy Baseball has its share of guys drafted in the late rounds, or picked up for a dollar that really pan out.  You’re generally not going to get anyone who absolutely kills it for a buck, or in the last round, unless you’re in a 10-12 team default league.  But here are some guy’s that’ll fill in nicely.

Minor Leaguers / Hot Prospects will have their own list, so they are excluded from this one.

Position Players

Anaheim Angels

Kendry Morales (1b) came over from Cuba in 2005 with a boatload of hype, and then proceeded to become spectacularly average.  The Fantasy World was abuzz just a few years ago about the Angels’ corner infielders, Dallas McPherson and Kendry Morales.  Then, they just stopped maturing, and when called up couldn’t produce.  None the less, Morales has had an incredible winterball season and obviously the talent is there.  Power hitting first basemen aren’t going to be gotten for a buck, but he’ll be cheaper come draft day.  Hopefully the Angels stay with Morales and resist the temptation to sign a first baseman.  Morales will produce and 25HR, 85RBI, 75R, and a .270 AVG seems reasonable.

Houston Astros

J.R. Towles (C) came into last year as the second hot catching prospect behind Soto. While Soto excelled as a major league backstop, Towles really shit the bed.  It Wouldn’t be out of the question to see Towles hit 15-20 HR, and Bill James has him hitting 17HR. Keep an eye on the starting Catcher’s job as Toby Hall was recently brought in to clean up the mess if Towles struggled.

Oakland Athletics

There’s going to be some value here, the problem is there are a lot of players around the same talent level fighting for jobs.

Ryan Sweeney (CF) wins the starting CF job, and has the possibility of going 15HR, 15SB.

Travis Buck (RF) has a tonne of talent, and flopped horribly last year.  He’s a top-tier young player that should develop power to go along with his solid batting eye.  As with all the stupid Athletics — Buck walks a lot and strikes out more.

Eric Patterson’s (OF /2B) AAA averages of .300+ have not translated well to the big leagues.  The Athletics acquired Patterson in the Harden deal, and will eventually end up with a solid player.  He’s got speed and, above all, second base eligibility.  If the Athletics can find a place for Patterson, he’ll be worth the dollar or two you’ll have to spend on him. His MLB strike-out rate isn’t a pretty sight though, so lets just hope he can drop it below 20%.

Daric Barton (1B) is yet another On Base Machine in the Oakland Athletics system.  He hit .347 in 84 PA in 2007, and then proceeded to stink up the joint (AAA and MLB) in 2008. Barton should have the inside gig on the first base job, with Jason Giambi as the DH.  If he continues to stink it up though; Giambi will move to first with Cust to DH which opens up the outfield for the two names above (Patterson or Buck).

Toronto Blue Jays

Travis Snider (OF / 1B) probably wont come as cheap as I’d like, but he should put up a solid rookie/sophmore season.  He came up for a cup of coffee in 2008, and impressed.  Generally listed among everyones top 10 MLB prospects, Snider is only 21 and has flown through the Jays system.  In limited action in 2008, he hit .300 with a couple dingers. There’s always the possibility the Jays start Snider off in the minors and keep him there for a good chunk, to save cash in the long run.  If Snider can keep ahold of the starting gig for the entire season, 20 HR aren’t out of the question.

While Snider may have more future potential, Adam Lind (OF) looks primed for a solid and productive 2009 campaign.  The Jays babied Lind quite a bit as he was coming through the system, and many Jays fans wanted Lind to stick with the big club a year earlier than he did.  Adam Lind has a realistic shot of hitting between .290 and .305 and, while his power numbers are sick-awesome, he should get to 20-25 HR on the season.  Lind brings incredible value to the table, and should be cheap come draft day.

Atlanta Braves

Josh Anderson(CF) will find a place to play in 2009, he’s gots-ta.  Anderson has quick-fast feet and should steal plenty of bases, cheaply.  He’ll hopefully get on-base somewhere between 33-35 percent of the time and could steal 35-40 bases this year if given the chance. Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones sit ahead of him, both of which have hopes and dreams of their own.  Anderson should be able to snake the starting CF job away from Blanco.  Anderson’s one of my favourites going into the season.

Martin Prado (UTIL) is a second baseman by trade, but has filled in for Chipper Jones and will continue to fill in at third whenever Jones goes down.  While Prado doesn’t have a starting gig, he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.  His .320 batting average last year was a result of a silly-stupid .360 BABIP but he appears to be a legitimate .290 – .300 hitter with not much else.  He gets on base, and has a good LD%.

Casey Kotchman will outperform his value, but by no means is he a sleeper.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bill Hall (3B) hit 290 in 2005, and everything was looking up. Then his strike out rates went as follows, presented with the corresponding averages: 2005 20 K%, .291  AVG, 2006 30 K%, .270 AVG, 2007 28 K%, .254 AVG, 2008 31 K%, .225 AVG.  To expect things from Hall is nutty, but if he can just manage to keep that bloody K percentage down to even 23-25%, he’ll be useful.

Anyone know if Alcides Escobar can play a solid third-base?

St. Louis Cardinals

Khalil Greene (SS). I like Greene this year, and I’m crazy for it.  It’s one of those doesn’t make sense gut feelings, that will either win you or lose you a fantasy league. Maybe he hits .260 and pulls his typical week with 5 HR, 4 Weeks with 0 HR type season.

David Freese (3B) went from three years of high and low A ball with the Padres to killing in triple A with the Cardinals.  Something smells fishy, but he’s listed as the guy behind Glaus.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Fontenot (2B) is the closest thing to a sleeper on this team, and who knows if he’ll out-perform his value.  He deserves to start over Aaron Miles, but weird shit happens in the windy city.  Keep an eye on this little situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Felipe Lopez (2B) will be filling the void at second left by Orlando Hudson, the O-Dog. I’m pretty high on Lopez, but he’s got some attitude issues.  Lopez probably makes my list of top 10 sleepers going into 2009. He should get down to business and put up some incredibly solid numbers.  He’s capable of batting .290 and stealing 30 or more bases, which cant be said for the other guys Melvin might think of batting atop the order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lopez occupy the 1 or 2 hole, and reap the rewards of a solid Arizona Diamondbacks line-up.

Lopez played 13 G at SS, 13 G at 3B, 17 G in the OF, and 101 at 2B.  Check your league settings because Lopez could be the ultimate fill-in.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Do the Dodgers get a deal done for Manny Ramirez?  If not Juan Pierre (OF) might become a bit more attractive with his huge contract floating around. However, Pierre’s name may add a couple bucks to his actual price tag, which you might care to avoid. 40 SB from someone who wont kill your batting average is always nice though.

Blake DeWitt (2B / 3B) has the inside line on the second base job over Mark Loretta.  He doesn’t bring anything particularly sexy to the table, but the kid can play.  The second and third eligibility helps.  All and all nothing overwhelming in Dodger-land.

San Francisco Giants

Lots of Fun in Giants camp! Pablo Sandoval (3B, 1B, C) is everyones favorite sleeper for the entirty of Fantasy Baseball for 2009.  He’s not a sleeper anymore, but the kid can play and did play 11 games at Catcher, 12 at third base, and 17 at first.  It looks like he’ll be playing third this year, but check your league settings.  Nothing is more annoying than finding out someone isn’t eligible for a position.  If he’s eligible for catcher in your league, snatch him the hell up.

Emmanuel Burriss (SS / 2B) should win the job over Kelly Frandsen, maybe.  Along with Burriss, Eugenio Velez (2B) has a shot of snagging that opening.  Velez will bring you ridiculous SB, and could be solid but is going to have issues matching Burriss defensively.  It’ll be itneresting to see how this plays out, as both Burriss and Velez should be able to get you a bunch of SB, assuming they win the job.

Cleveland Indians

Matt Laporta (OF / 1B) will go with the rookie rankings but hopefully he plays this year for the big club.

The Indians have quite a few guys with room for improvement and maturity, yet none of them really classify as sleepers. Shin-Soo Choo (OF / RF) looks darn good and had quite the season in just under 100 games for the tribe last year. The .309 BA is nice, but the .373 BABIP is ridiculous. His Line Drive percentage is nice and pretty above 20%, but .373 is ridiculous.  He got lucky, but he can still go and hit 20+ HR for the tribe this year, and he does still have some speed in the tank (enough for 10SB? Maybe)

Keep an eye on Ben Francisco as well, the other corner outfielder.

The Entire Indians Infield (DeRosa, Cabrera, Peralta, and Garko) have the ability to eclipse their dollar value / draft round, in 2009.  Not sleepers, but worth a look. I’m especially high on Cabrera and Garko, as the other two have gotten their fair share of pre-season hype.

Seattle Mariners

What a waste-land.  I’m not a fan of the Mariners, at all. Everytime they come to Toronto, hoards of japanese people come out and scream their faces off at Kenji Johjima and Ichiro Suzuki.  They’re like rockstars, and the 16-22 year old Japanese girls that scream for them act like their white peers at an All American Rejects concert.

Jeff Clement (C) isn’t a sleeper, but he should outperform his draft stock.

Florida Marlins

Much better, the Florida Marlins have some sleepers. Jeremy Hermida (RF) has all the tools to be great, not just good — but GREAT.  Most fantasy owners get pissed off when they read about sleepers for a couple years, and they just never pan out. Hermida falls into this group, the post hype sleeper group. 2008′s 28 percent strike-out rate is a weeeeeeeee bit concerning, but sometimes you just gotta trust your eyes and go with that sweet sweet swing.

Cameron Maybin (OF) should be good, not quite yet though — He’ll be hanging out with LaPorta in the “rookies who can make a difference” room.

John Baker (C), Oh how I like thee.  His outlook looks good, and he’ll be great value in the last round or two of your draft — If he flops, which he could well do, just cut bait.  Otherwise, I’m fixin’ on predictin’ 350-400 AB to go with 15 HR

Dallas McPherson (3B) should be good but the hype machine is starting it’s engines, and with the ridiculous amount of homers he’s put up in the Minors the past couple years — the experts are remembering just how much they LOVED McPherson 5 years ago.

New York Mets

The Mets’ outfield other than Beltran looks to have a good bit of talent floating around it. I’m generally against listing sleepers from big market teams, as ESPN tends to showcase the hell out of them but Ryan Church (OF) has been solid, but not spectacular for sometime now, and other than a broken brain looks good. With Church, you might get 20 HR, a handful of steals, and a guarenteed .275 average.  He’s quite serviceable in deeper leagues. The 20-25% K rate is concerning, but if he’s adding power while doing it — I’ll take it.

Daniel Murphy (OF / 2B? / 3b?) could make a big impact in fantasy circles this year. His .386 BABIP last year inflated his stats, but he’s still only 24 years old. Murphy can play just about anywhere, but will start the season qualifying only as an OF.  There’s a chance with the right set of circumstances that he snags eligibility at 2B and/or 3B.  If he comes out of camp as the starting second baseman, he’s value is going to be solid as all hell. His LD rate was a stupid-silly 33 percent last year, which makes that .386 BABIP not so ridiculous and while his K rate was 20+ percent last year — he should drop it down below 20 (if minor league stats have any influence whatsoever on MLB stats). If Murphy can steal 10 bases, which he’s more than capable of, he’ll be useful in all but the most shallow of leagues. If you consider him a sleeper, Murphy is top 5.

Jeremy Reed (OF) came over from Seattle, and the talent’s there.  He hasn’t managed to put it together, and his top-prospect status is long gone. Maybe he’ll react well to being out of Seattle and begin putting up the numbers once expected of him.

Washington Nationals

Their outfield is stacked with former top prospects, absolutely stacked.  I’m not sure if it’ll ever gell considering the attitude that’s out there but:

Lastings Milledge (OF) was the chosen one in the Mets farm system for a few years before coming over to the Nats.  As with all New York prospects, the great ones are blown up way too big, and the smaller ones get lost in the shadows to become great players. Milledge does have the talent though, as he can easily steal 25 bases to go along with his developing power.  Last Years 14 HR season should be improved upon, actually all of his numbers should be improved upon. If he can keep his LD rate above 20, and his K rate below it — he could outperform the massive hype surrounding him..lets hope.  He’s not a one dollar sleeper, and you’ll have to pay to get him but the potential is there.

Elijah Dukes (RF / OF) has more power than Milledge, but also has more issues.  If Dukes has 15 wives and each wife has 2 children, and each child has 3 Daddies,  how many children is Dukes really the father of? Dukes has all the talent in the world and if everything goes well he could smash his draft day value. Read this carefully: Elijah Dukes could reasonably go 30HR and 30SB, with a .275BA given he reaches about 600PA.

Josh Willingham (LF / OF) could get to 25 HR pretty easily, but keep in mind his BA isn’t pretty and he strikes out a hella-lot.

Jesus Flores (C) could be one to keep an eye on, but he’s not particularly a sleeper.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore and Mike Flanagan are doing a terrific job building their organization the right way — by fleecing other teams of their young talent.

Matt Weiters (C) cannot possibly be considered a sleeper, and he’ll join Laporta, Maybin, and Escobar in the Rookie Category.

Even Adam Jones (CF / OF), one of the nicest guys in baseball, isn’t particularly a sleeper.  He’ll improve upon his numbers of last year, and he’s a super prospect but you’ll probably have to pay some cash money to get him.  Jones has 20 HR pop in his bat as soon as this year, and on a team that loves to just go out and have fun — he should be fun to watch.  Throw in 10-15SB, and you’ve got yourself a ballplayer.

Felix Pie (LF / OF) will more than likely be a second half sleeper.  It may be worth it to draft him, but I’d wait a few months before grabbing him.  If your league is shallow, feel free to grab the speedy young OF whom the Cubs gave the Orioles for essentially nothing.  If he’s allowed to run free, expect a cheap source of stolen bases.

San Diego Padres

I’m not sure where I stand on Chase Headley (OF / 3B?). The Kid has all of the talent in the world, but is it too soon? Chase strikes out too damn much, 31.4% K Rate! but when he does hit the ball he’s a line-drive machine, 25% LD! The Homers aren’t there, but he’ll grow into it eventually — He’s a sleeper, but not one i’d like to have on my team unless I’ve got balls of steel. If Kouzmanoff gets hurt and Headley can move to third, we’ve got a whole new ball-game.

Edgar Gonzalez (2B) might be worth a look if not for that pesky David Eckstein.

Philadelphia Phillies

World Champs don’t produce sleepers.

Raul Ibanez (OF) might be worth a long, long, look though.  He’s no world champ — but he is a .290 hitter with power, who’s numbers have been skewed by Seattle’s awful ballpark.

Who know’s how he’ll adjust to NL pitching after 10 years in the AL, but he’s worth a very very long look.  He wont come for a buck, but i bet he outperforms his cost by at least 3 to 5 dollars.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Rookie Outfielders Andrew McCutchen (OF), Steve Pearce(OF), Jose Tabata(OF) could all make a difference in your fantasy league this year depending on its size.  They’re getting hucked into the Rookie category. I was thinking of putting Pearce here, but it’s easier to put him with the other two star prospects.

Really only Andy LaRoche (3B) sticks out as someone I’d genuinely like to have on my roster.  While Freddy Sanchez (2B) could put up a solid batting average, he’s too hit or miss.

Andy’s brother Adam LaRoche (1B) is primed for a breakout year but is in no way a sleeper.

Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus (SS) can boogey, and he’s won the starting shortstop gig. The Rangers were wise to sign Omar Vizquel (SS) just incase.  Andrus gets thrown in with the other rookies later, to a lesser extent.

Anyone in the Texas Line-Up should produce solid numbers, as Arlington is a  bloody Band-Box.

Take David Murphy (OF) if he takes the LF job, and all signs point to yessir — he’ll put up stellar numbers.

Chris Davis (1B / 3B) lost his position as a sleeper the day he was born, so please dont ask.

Tampa Bay Rays

I cant seem to find a sleeper here; eveyrone on their squad should probably perform up to par. Ben Zobrist (OF / SS) qualifies at shortstop and could well snag the right field job, but I still woulnd’t count on that many AB. His power seemingly came out of nowhere and with a 13% LD rate and a corresponding .255 BABIP, things dont look particularly solid moving forward. He’s got a solid walk rate (13%) which negates most of his 20% strike-out rate.  Hrmm, it’s interesting.

Matt Joyce (OF) who’s penciled in ahead of Zobrist at RF could provide you with solid power numbers to go with a beautifully awesome .260 AVG. Joyce strikes out about a quarter to a third of the time, but he’s a true masher. Against righties Joyce should put up solid numbers, and maybe your league undervalues him.

If you can get Joyce on the cheap, you’ll be incredibly happy as he’ll put up great numbers.  Just dont over-pay, mind you — what is overpaying for 30HR in 500 AB?

Keep his name on your cheat sheet and snag him if the time is right.

Boston Red Sox

There’s no sleepers on this team, who are we kidding. If Ortiz gets dead, Rocco Baldelli (OF / DH) should put up solid numbers.

Cincinatti Reds

Jay Bruce (OF) is a sleeper, sort of — I tend to think he’ll be overvalued come draft day but there’s no way to dismiss his raw talent.  He’ll be thrown in with the rookies as he compares best to them.

I like Jerry Hairston Jr (OF / SS) to be a solid source of steals for your middle infield, assuming he can hold off newly arrived masher Johnny Gomes (OF). If Gomes can get himself 350 AB, he seems to hit 20HR.  If he can land a full time gig, expect those numbers to go up in the Great American Bandbox. Striking out 30% of the time isn’t optimal, but if the HR come with it — The Reds will take it.

The whole Reds’ team should play well, with Encarnacion putting up a few more dollars than he’s worth along with Brandon Phillips.  There’s no reason to not take a Red this year.

Colorado Rockies

You’ve gotta take anyone with talent pretty serious in Colorado.

Ian Stewart (2b? / 3b?) has entered the hype machine and as of January, Garrett Atkins is in LF?? Stewart’s not a sleeper, but he should produce and strike out given playing time.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF) the 243 tooled player acquired in the Holliday deal should rake given the chance.  I have him in my top 5 sleepers.  The man swings at everything, in the zone or outside of it and he strikes out too damn much but whatever.

Sometimes swinging at everything works — oh wait, you have to make contact when you swing at everything? Shit.  Gonzalez is still in my top 5.

Kansas City Royals

Mark Teahen (OF / 2B) is a solid player, and a half decent corner outfielder.  He is not a Second Basemen, but if the Royals switch him to second base as the rumours indicate — he may well be useful. Optimally, Teahan would gain second base eligibility and then return to the outfield but we’ll see. Teahan had a down year last year, and he’s still striking out at a 23% clip — so buyer beware.

Big Fat Billy Butler (1B / DH) and Kila Ka’Ailhue (1B / DH) along with Mike Jacobs (1B) should all see time.  Butler was everyones favourite sleeper last year, and Jacobs can just straight up mash. 25 to 30 homers seems about right for Jacobs, considering all things — but you’ll lose out on the counting stats. Ka’Ailhue should be interesting — i’m not sure if he’s a sleeper at this point or not, but boy can he hit.

Ka’Ailhue would have been a huge addition to any team if not for the Mike Jacobs trade, and maybe he’ll still contribute to a lesser extent. Maybe the youngster can sit down with Jacobs and explain to him why it’s beneficial to Walk almost as much, if not more, than you strike out.  Everything is there except playing time.

Alberto Collaspo (2B) just as a side note, i really like Alberto Collapso and whenever playing Baseball Mogul 2007? I made sure to add him to my team — he always got good around 2009.  Computers rule!

Detroit Tigers

Nothing seems to pop out about the Tigers. Maybe Gerald Laird (C) away from Texas? No thanks. Nice line-up though.

Minnesota Twins

Alexi Casilla (2B) isn’t a sleeper but should put up solid stats. If people start snoozing on Delmon Young (OF), this might be the year.  I’d be more than willing to take a risk on Young, banking that he finally put stuff together in his head.  Young’s got all the talent in the world but like so many of these uber-talented top-prospects, maybe his work ethic isn’t quite there.  I’m not going to predict 20 HR for Young, but you should know incredibly early in the season whether or not he’s going to continue grounding balls harmlessly into the outfield.

Nick Puntu (UTIL / Everywhere) should also contribute.

Chicago White Sox

Should be interesting.  Josh Fields (3B) can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown he can hit, yet. If Jerry Owens (OF) takes the CF job he should be a huge source of steals and more than likely Runs — if he can get on base at a decent clip.

I’m a big fan of super utility man Wilson Betemit (1B/3B/14G @ SS) but whether or not he gets playing time is a different story. His strike out rate is an ugly 25%, but I’d still give him a chance.

New York Yankees

Welcome to the hype-machine. Robinson Cano (2B) will bounce back but the only real sleeper here is Nick Swisher (1B / OF), who could well be dealt.

Swisher hit .219 last year, which is awful. Swisher generally doesn’t hit that well, and expecting more than .260 is goofy but boy does he walk. Expect a nice little return to the .375 range for Swishers OBP, and he’ll regain his .840 OPS form.

Swisher was apparently one of the most unlucky players in 2008, and many are predicting a rebound.

Very rarely do you see a players LD rate go up, while his BABIP dips 50 pts. If Swisher can find a way to get full time playing time, he’s a top 5 sleeper. I just don’t know how he does that in a crowded Yankees outfield — mind you, it’s a crowded AGING Yankees outfield.