With all of the recent injury troubles the ass-end of the 17-and-43 Baltimore Orioles bullpen has been encountering, David Hernandez might just be the answer.  The pickings will be slim but it appears as though David Hernandez is now the master of saves until Alfredo Simon returns.

Hernandez worked a fairly clean ninth inning against the Yankees’ 8th, 9th, leadoff and two-hole hitters.  After getting Marcus Thames to fly-out on a first pitch 95mph heater, Hernandez walked Kevin Russo.  Hernandez started Russo off with two fastballs that painted the black before issuing four consecutive balls.  The lack of aggressiveness exhibited is troublesome as you know Hernandez wanted to sit down the easy part of the Yankees’ order before facing Jeter.  However, Jeter flied out to Markakis on a 95mph fastball after seeing a 96mph heater to start the AB.  The inning was closed out and the save acquired after Nick Swisher chased a couple 96.5mph fastballs before grounding out to second base.

Hernandez, a converted starter, had averaged 93mph on his fastball in the two previous years but drastically pumped it up for the ninth inning of last night’s game.  Throwing only fastballs — two were identified as two-seamers — Hernandez averaged 95.9mph on his four-seamer.  In his initial outing as closer, Hernandez also induced his fair share of swing-and-misses (27% whiff) without having to reach into his repertoire of off-speed pitches.

In addition to the fastball, Hernandez has a decent slurve with mostly horizontal action and a show-me change-up.  The change-up doesn’t have the dive or tail that you’d expect but it still comes in almost 10mph slower than his straight heat.  In most of his ninth inning duties, Hernandez should rely heavily on his pair of fastballs and the slurve while vanquishing the change-up.

Heading forward, if you’re in dire need of saves, Hernandez probably isn’t the worst option.  His K-per-9 should improve from the current 5.98 if he’s able to maintain the increased velocity.  However, the lack of control (5.62BB/9) probably won’t improve past his 4.09-per-9 of 2009. Many of Hernandez’s plate discipline statistics are concerning but the O-Swing (curr. 21.7%) and Swinging Strike Rate (curr. 7.2%) should trend towards league average (O-Swing: 28%, SwStr: 8%) due to his increased velocity.

I figured with the closer shake-up in Chicago, I’d address the situation.  Eric Karabell over at ESPN.com starts yickin’ and yackin’ about Carlos Marmol’s control issues.

I’m surprised Kevin Gregg lasted this long with six blown saves and a four and a half earned run average to be honest.  Gregg’s longevity more than anything effected Marmol in 2009. Marmol’s always had his problems walks, but it’s never been this bad.  Marmol’s currently walking almost a full batter per inning pitched (8.31 BB/9).

As Spring Training came to a close, it was fairly clear that Marmol was disappointed with his role on the team.  At least to me, it seemed like Marmol had been appointed the “closer in waiting”. Furthermore, it seems like Carlos Marmol just doesn’t care as much as he used to.  Proclamations like this fly in the face of just about everything else that I write, but they’re equally as plausible.

This is why I’d be trying to get Carlos Marmol, if at all possible.  If the Cubs and Piniella give him a little bit of a leash, he could dominate. Marmol still throws hard, still has a nasty slider, and still brings the gas.

Karabell obviously proposes Angel Guzman as an option and that makes a lot of sense.  In most leagues, Marmol’s probably stuck on the bench of someone who gave up 2 months ago, so Guzman may be your only option.  At first glance, it appears as though Guzman’s getting fairly lucky leaving 86% of batters on base and posting a .217 BABIP.  Guzman does have the giddy-up and stuff to dominate during the dog-days.  Of course none of this matters if the Cubs continue their free-fall.

If Marmol is just disinterested, it’ll probably take him a bit to regain his form.  If he’s available and you can spare a bench spot for a week, it makes a lot of sense to take a flier and let him ride the pine for a week or so.

After a couple blown saves, George Sherrill’s been put on the hot-seat by Orioles manager, Dave Trembley.  Sherrill, who’s now referred to as “All-Star Closer, George Sherrill,” recorded only 3 saves after the all-streak break last year and has converted only four of six opportunities so far in 2009.

The Baltimore Sun reported that Trembley had this to say after Sherrill gave up a home-run to Toronto’s Aaron Hill:

I think No. 1, we have to do what’s best to get us on the winning track, and No. 2, I have to take a look at the situation and do what I feel is in the best interest of the team for today. Further than that, I’ll probably take it day by day.

Trembley hasn’t ruled out a closer by committee and lists the possibilities as Sherrill, Baez, Johnson and former O’s closer, Chris Ray.  Chris Ray is the most intriguing of the bunch and was the Orioles’ full-time closer from 2006 to 2007, when he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. Ray was incredibly effective in 2006 posting a 2.73 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 33 Saves while holding batters to a .193 batting average.

Unfortunately, the 2009 version of Chris Ray hasn’t been nearly as effective, posting a 7.56 ERA and a WHIP of 2.16.  Ray began the season on a terrible note, giving up 4 runs in 1.1 innings to the Yankees.  After pitching five scoreless innings and lowering his ERA to 5.14, Ray’s given up 3 ER over his last two appearances.

In 2009, Chris Ray’s statistics are down across the board and can almost certainly be attributed to his loss of velocity. At his peak in 2006, Chris Ray averaged almost 95mph on his heater, 86mph on his slider and 85mph on his change-up / split-finger fastball.  Ray routinely hit the high 90′s on his fastball and limited batters to hitting only 16% line-drives, while posting a K:BB of about two.  Ray’s had trouble regaining his velocity and has resorted to throwing his fastball a mere 46% of the time, a 20% decrease from his peak years.

There is still hope for Chris Ray to be a successful big-league closer though and it all comes down to trust.  After losing his entire 2008 season to injury, it makes perfect sense that Ray would lose trust in his arm.  As with any severe injury, it’s going to take some time for Ray to begin trusting his own body and regaining trust in his elbow.  After Tommy John surgery, pitchers go through a transitionary period before realizing they can pitch every bit as well post-surgery as they did before.  Gibson, Webner, Huffman and Sennett concluded in the American Journal of Sports Medicine that,

“Most major league pitchers return from ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction by the second season after surgery with no statistical change in mean innings pitched, earned run average, or walks and hits per inning pitched from preinjury levels.”

Using fangraphs terrific new tool, a pfx velocity graph, it’s clear to see that Chris Ray is regraining trust in his arm and elbow.

While Chris Ray hasn’t quite regained his pre-surgery velocity, he’s steadily increased his velocity to the point where he’s at least getting to 95mph.

Ray’s slider is also trending upwards at a fairly similar rate.

To say the very least, these are encouraging velocity charts.  At this point, a month or so into the season, Ray’s still only pitched 8 innings.  My gut tells me that Ray won’t regain a feel for his *new* elbow for another couples weeks, or 10 IP.  I don’t see Ray touching 100 mph anymore, but hitting the high-90′s on a somewhat regular basis seems like a distinct possibility.

Ray also appears to be getting quite unlucky, surrendering a .491 BABIP to opposing hitters.  Ray’s 4.14 FIP definitely gives Chris Ray owners a reason to ignore his 7.56 ERA.   Ray’s BABIP should be  on the higher end of the spectrum considering he’s allowing 21% Line Drives, but it shoudln’t be quite this high — keep in mind, we’re dealing with a sample size of under 10 IP and 157 pitches.

Ray will never be an elite closer, as his control still leaves  a lot to be desired, but he will be an above-average source of saves if he can get his velocity up.

Ray’s still got the stuff, he just needs to regain trust –  in himself, and from Dave Trembley.

Here’s a couple articles on the medicine behind Tommy John Surgery:

Scientific America Article on Post Tommy John Velocity Increase

American Journal of Sports Medicine Article

Journal of Bone and Joint Surgery

Taking Care of Business: The Closer Report

I need a catchy title for a bi-weekly column, preferably based on a Canadian Hit Record.  Currently, BTO’s the front runner, but that may change.

It’s the 6th Inning of the Jays and Tigers, and Brandon Inge has just hit another home-run.  That Catcher eligibility is going to mean a lot if you’re in anything but the shallowest of leagues.  Two catcher leagues, or anything over 12 teams, and Inge has value.

Closer Report:

Toronto Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan of the Blue Jays hasn’t looked right in a while. When Ryan’s on, it doesn’t matter that he’s a lefty closer with less than ideal splits.  Unfortunately, the same qualities that make him a great closer, also make him a huge injury risk.  The torque placed on his elbow and rotator cuff creates ridiculous spin on his slider, but also creates the dreaded “inverted-L”

Scott Downs, another lefty, is next in line for save opportunities.  Downs is owned in 6.1 percent of ESPN leagues, which is up 2.1 percent.

Detroit Tigers

Well, this situation should be a blast to follow. After years of being the closer of the future, Fernando Rodney’s got the gig, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll hold onto the job with a walk rate approaching 5 batters per 9.

Brandon Lyon appears to be next in line, and he’s remarkably average which isn’t the high upside you’d like to see from a speculative closer.

Youngster Ryan Perry is where the action is at:  Perry was drafted in 2008 as the 21st overall pick and made the club along with fellow youngster Rick Porcello. Perry’s an interesting case, as he didn’t seem to catch fire until his Junior season with Arizona.  Perry has all sorts of K potential, and if he can continue to impress, he may be the Tigers best option at closer.

Baltimore Orioles

George Sherrill is another lefty closer with a lot of issues. Prior to the All Star break last year, Sherrill was on fire. Sherrill came tumbling back down to earth after the break, and posted a 4.73 ERA on the year.  Sherrill registered a  BB/9 on the wrong side of 5 in 2008, and he’s only projected to improve on it marginally in 2009. The projections range from Marcel’s 4.18 BB / 9 to ZiPS 4.69 BB / 9.

In steps Chris Ray, a proven closer, who missed all of 2008 due to injury that required Tommy John. In 2006, Ray converted 33 of 38 save opportunities. Ray exhibits slightly better control and strike-out ability than Sherrill, but whether or not he’s healthy is up for debate. If Ray’s fastball isn’t sitting around 95mph, you should take a wait-and-see approach. Ray’s combination of Fastball, Slider, Change, and Splitter is ideal for the closers spot. After allowing 2 ER versus the Yanks, Ray’s ownership is down 9 percent, to 42 percent in ESPN.

Washington Nationals

Joel Hanrahan seems to have the gig, and probably has about three or four blown saves worth of leeway after saving 9 games last year for the Nats. Hanrahan added almost 4 miles per hour to all of his pitches last year, and I’d definitely be checking his pfx data in the coming days (you can do this using gameday, or scooting over to fangraphs.com).

Steven Shell is next in line after posting a 2.16 ERA in 50 IP last year. Much of Shell’s success came down to luck, but he has the stuff to vault Rivera and the other Nats RP. Shell’s currently owned in .3% of ESPN leagues.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks closer role should keep you busy. It’s one of the few cloudy situations that could actually result in steady saves, if you guess right.  The closers role is currently occupied by 30-year old Chad Qualls, but Tony Pena and Joe Rauch are waiting in the wings. Qualls is currently owned in all but the shallowest fantasy leagues (94% ESPN Ownership)

Qualls has wonderful ratios, and a 8+ K per 9 rate, and 2ish BB per 9, makes for solid closer potential.  Qualls has great splits for a closer, and held both lefties and righties under a .230 batting average.

If Qualls fails, Rauch registered 17 saves with the Nats last year but looked terrible in his brief stint with the D-Backs (6.56 ERA).  The real value comes from Tony Pena, who has all the tools to succeed, but possibly lacks the make-up. Pena brings it at 95mph, and should register a 2.5-3 strike outs per walk. Pena’s currently owned in 2.7 percent of ESPN leagues.

The interesting part of this situation comes down to pitching philosophy.  Qualls, with his ground ball tendencies, is better suited for high leverage situations and Pena with his over-powering fastball, is much better suited for the 9th inning.

At this point however, the closer job is Qualls’ to lose.  With the amount of talent the Diamondbacks have in the pen, this situation could quickly become a closer by committee with no one getting more than 12 saves.

Atlanta Braves

Just a quickie here:  Gonzalez has a good amount of experience closing, but Soriano has a very live arm.  The job is Gonzalez’s until he loses it, but with Soriano’s K-Potential he’s definitely worth a look.  Even if he doesn’t have a closers job, he’s one of few relievers that can contribute to your ERA, WHIP, and K’s while you’re waiting for him to win the gig.  Everything depends on his health, though:  Soriano’s owned in 3.6% of ESPN leagues, and you probably want to key on his BB Rate.  If he’s on, we’re talking 2 or under per 9.  If he’s off…it could balloon well above 4 or 5 walked batters per 9.

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gregg vs. Carlos Marmol.  We all know who the better pitcher is, the question is where the Cubs want their best relief pitcher to pitch. Marmol was ranked ahead of Gregg in almost all of the pre-rankings and was drafted as if he were the closer.  Marmol’s got dirty stuff, and he’ll continue to be among the percent ownership leaders for non-closing relief pitchers. Marmol’s currently sitting at 85 percent ownership, which is only 11 percent less than Kevin Gregg’s 96 percent.

Colorado Rockies

Huston Street and Manny Corpas both have closer experience, and neither one’s a sure thing.  Street had an epic melt-down last year, which lead to his departure from Oakland. Corpas doesn’t quite have the K-potential that Street does, but he does have a Coors friendly ground-ball rate nearing 50% compared to Street’s 40%.

You’ll want to keep an eye on Street’s BB-Rate, as he posted a career high 3.47 BB / 9 in 2008.

With Street’s ownership at 91 percent, and Corpas sitting at 46%, the best value may come from Taylor Bucholz who’s owned in under 1 percent of leagues.  After Bucholz’s career year in 2008, he’s one guy to keep an eye on.

Florida Marlins

Currently Matt Lindstrom (91% Owned) has the closers job, and should have at least a few blown saves in the reservoir before he gets the hook.  Florida’s bullpen is filled with a lot of young, live, arms.

Leo Nunez is one of my “he’s definitely on the roids” guys, as he’s a wiry reliever that magically added 4mph to his fastball, and consistently posts inconsistent statistics.  His K rate has ranged from 4 to 8 batters per 9. ESPN owners are prospecting pretty hard-core on Nunez, as his ownership is at almost 6 percent.

Renyel Pinto (.1%) is a lefty option that tops out at 90mph, but has solid K potential.  Unfortunately, with the K’s come an abundance of walks.

Logan Kensing (.1%) appears to fit the closers role the best, as he’ll hit 95mph on the gun with great K potential.  Like Pinto, Kensing has some serious control issues but a breakthrough could definitely be in the cards.

Oakland Athletics

I talked about Brad Ziegler and the Oakland bullpen here.

St. Louis Cardinals

Simple explanation here, and great prospecting.  Jason Motte ( 87%) has the job until he loses it, and it’ll take more than a couple blown saves for LaRussa to strip the job from Motte.  It’s going to take a lack of control. Motte has shown, and the projection models agree, that he can keep his BB Rate around 3.  With the strike-out ability he possesses, that’s a rosterable control deficiency.

If Motte falters, Ryan Franklin (2.4%) will fill in and probably get himself 5-8 SV until Chris Perez gets his shot. Perez’s ownership declined 9 percent upon his demotion to the minors, and he now sits at 8% ownership.

Seattle Mariners

I didn’t agree with Brandon Morrow’s shift to the rotation, and thankfully it hasn’t happened yet.  Morrow has all the stuff in the world to be a top-rate closer, but whether or not he’ll succeed is up in the air.

Morrow has some serious control issues, and looked AWFUL last night. Morrow walked 3 batters in 2/3rds of an inning, and nothing will get a closer pulled faster than a lack of control.  Managers can stomach walk off home runs, but they tend to have issues with walking the bases full.

Next in line is Mark Lowe, who’s owned in under 1 percent of ESPN leagues. Lowe can bring the fastball almost as hard as Morrow, and his ratios are average enough to warrant consideration.  At Lowe’s ownership, he’s definitely one of the better values.

Chad Cordero who’s currently in the Minors rehabbing is the wild card.  Cordero came into the league as one of the better pitching prospects, and didn’t disappoint.  He’s coming off injury, but if he gets the call — he’ll be ready to go.  The Mariners won’t bring him up if he’s not completely healthy, and Cordero’s time table is looking more and more advanced.

Tampa Bay Rays

Take a look at how last year unfolded, add in Isringhausen, and you’re set.  Wheeler should continue to be a decent source of cheap-as-hell saves, while contributing stellar ERA & WHIP numbers. Wheeler’s already owned in 44 percent of leagues, though.

If you’re just in it for Saves, I guess that Percival is your best bet. Isringhausen’s only owned in 1.5 percent of leagues, and he’s currently on the DL, so if you have a  DL-spot — he’ll probably provide the best bang for your buck; 6 or 7 saves seems reasonable.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Broxton obviously has this job, but Hong-Chih Kuo provides an intriguing buy.  Kuo’s only owned in 9.2% of leagues, and he shouldn’t hurt you while you’re waiting on Broxton to fail.

There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty around Broxton considering he’s essentially a tailor-made closer.

Milwaukee Brewers

I can’t picture Hoffman as a set-up man, and Villeneuva is too valuable to just pitch 1 inning.  Even if Charlie V succeeds, I have trouble believing he’ll stick at the closer spot.

Hoffman’s probably going to fall off the edge at some point this year — I’m unsure at this point if that cliff is a performance or injury barrier; quite possibly it’ll be a combination of both.

In the end, prospecting for closers is something that’s a necessity in a deep league but somewhat goofy in shallow leagues.  If you’re in a head to head league, it makes sense to prospect so long as you can make the playoffs. In roto-leagues, or points-leagues; the risk associated with prospecting for closers often times outweighs the rewards.

ESPN offers their take on the CLOSER DEPTH CHART.

Hanrahan Photo Courtesy of Scott Ablemann

Soriano & Lowe Photo Courtesy of Mark Sobba

Broxton by Photography By Rueben

Joey Devine, who was appointed the Athletics’ closer during Spring Training was placed on the 60-Day Disabled List on Saturday, and will probably require surgery on his elbow ligaments, essentially ending his season.

In steps Brad Ziegler, one of the genuinely nice guys in the big leagues.  Ziegler came to fame during his record setting streak of 39 scoreless innings to start a career. Ziegler throws from a side-arm, not quite submarine, delivery and was ridiculously effective in 2008.

…but maybe it was just luck, Ziegler had a lot of things working for him:

1. Batters hadn’t seen Ziegler’s unconventional delivery
2. Ziegler’s strand rate of 92.3% was unbelievable
3. Ziegler’s BABIP of .246 was equally as insane
4. All of this resulted in Ziegler’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.72 grossly outpacing his actual ERA of 1.06

So what’s the deal with Ziegler?

He’s a ground ball pitcher (67% GB) that pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, in front of a very solid defense. The A’s home stadium rated as the 5th most favorable park for pitchers according to ESPN’s park factors. Mind you, Ziegler’s ground ball tendencies don’t benefit quite as much from the spacious foul territory that makes McAfee Coliseum a pitchers-paradise.

Even with these things working for him, Ziegler still isn’t a prototypical closer. In 2008, Ziegler didn’t miss bats (4.53K/9), and in turn, posted a terribly mediocre BB:K rate of 1.36.

Ziegler’s splits are terribly concerning, as is generally the case with submariners. Ziegler allowed 2 HR all year, and both came against lefties. Ziegler’s WHIP against lefties was 1.52, compared to his 0.88 WHIP against righties. His batting average against echoed these sentiments as Righties hit .198 compared to the .280 that lefties hit.  In addition to Ziegler having issues with lefties, you should expect his LOB% and BABIP to regress towards the mean.

This isn’t good news for Ziegler owners, and I’d ship him as soon as he gets a couple saves under his belt.

Who Steps In?

Santiago Casilla was nearly un-hittable until a May 15th elbow injury forced him onto the DL.  Upon his return, his ERA slowly rose from a May 11th mark of 0.47, all the way to his season-ending number of 3.93.

Unlike Ziegler, Casilla does have your typical closers stuff: 94-95mph fastball, 87mph slider, and a mid-80′s change-up. His change seemed to be incorrectly categorized quite a bit last year, as it was clocked at an average of 88mph.

Casilla has better splits, and has predicted stats of: 8-9 K per 9, 3-4 BB per 9 and 2.00-2.50 K:BB

25 year old Jerry Blevins is another solid option, as the tools are there but he tops out at about 92mph.

Journeyman Russ Springer has nice peripherals, and a nice mix of pitches but they’ll probably be best served earlier in the game. Like Blevins, he tops out at about 92mph.

Andrew Bailey also has high strike-out potential, but his control doesn’t bode overly well for his status as a closer.  He’s best suited for mid-to-long relief.

In the end…

The saves will be spread around, but I think Casilla ends up with better save totals than Ziegler.

There’s really only one conclusion that I’d be willing to stake my name on, and that’s Brad Ziegler doesn’t succeed as a closer.  Unless everyone else falls flat on their face, he wont Brian Wilson or Kevin Gregg the situation either.

Ziegler’s a solid pitcher, and a nice weapon to have, but he’s best suited as a situational pitcher.

Whoever wins the closers gig, will benefit from the stadium, defense, and improved offense of the Athletics.

Photo Courtesy of Ztil301 & Kimberly*, Flickr