Sandoval

2010 Adjusted ESPN First Base Rankings

First base always seems to be deep and this year is no different. There’s a handful of elite first-basemen with very few questions and the position’s about 14 players deep before questions start popping up.

The only problems you’ll run into with first basemen is getting enough of them before they start falling off the board into UTIL spots across your league.

The Box-Plot to the left contains a total of 27 first basemen, all of whom exceed the minimum required for a beneficial UTIL-spot.

You’re almost guaranteed to get 30HR out of your first basemen and should be planning a contingency plan if you’re drafting a light-hitting first-basemen like James Loney.

As ESPN refuses to allow us access to their H/AB and rather just throws us a bone with AVG, we have to use CHONE’s AB guestimates.

Presented below are the standardized total points (Tts) and as you can see, the difference between Pujols’ and Howard’s batting average is large, but almost eliminated by Howard’s impressive HR and RBI totals.

PLAYER_NAME	R	HR	RBI	SB	ESPN_AVG	Tts
Albert Pujols	114	43	122	11	0.34	393.86
Ryan Howard	104	47	145	5	0.27	365.91
Prince Fielder	100	45	127	2	0.29	351.05
Mark Teixeira	104	38	125	2	0.3	341.34
Miguel Cabrera	106	32	102	3	0.31	324.83
Adrian Gonzalez	96	41	106	0	0.28	315.53
Mark Reynolds	96	38	102	18	0.25	312.04
Kevin Youkilis	97	28	102	5	0.31	299.31
Justin Morneau	88	33	111	0	0.28	288.99
Joey Votto	85	31	92	7	0.3	286.08
Derrek Lee	96	27	102	2	0.3	283.86
Billy Butler	90	29	99	1	0.3	283.28
Kendry Morales	88	30	101	3	0.3	282.07
Carlos Pena	90	39	103	1	0.24	275.13
Adam Dunn	83	38	100	2	0.24	271.02
Chris Davis	77	35	97	2	0.27	266.73
Lance Berkman	88	26	91	7	0.28	265.9
Pablo Sandoval	85	24	88	3	0.32	265.2
Michael Cuddyer	84	24	86	6	0.27	251.75
Adam LaRoche	72	28	88	1	0.27	245.78
Victor Martinez	86	18	93	0	0.29	244.83
Jorge Cantu	72	21	93	4	0.28	239.4
James Loney	69	17	85	5	0.3	237.16
Carlos Delgado	76	25	94	2	0.26	233.12
Paul Konerko	71	28	81	1	0.26	232.17
Nick Swisher	87	27	78	1	0.24	231.11
Garrett Jones	71	21	78	7	0.26	224.2
Todd Helton	75	13	75	0	0.31	216.87

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As you can see in the Histogram to the right, there’s one or two players in each tier after 300pts.  At 300pts, it becomes a complete and total crap-shoot.  If you care to compete, you absolutely need to get a first baseman no later than this tier.

Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto, Derrek Lee, Billy Butler, Kendry Morales, Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn are all very capable starters at first base.

The Differences:

In the ESPN Rankings, Ryan Howard is the fifth overall first basemen despite crazy projections.  It’s become fairly clear that ESPN over-values batting average and what a .270 Batting Average means in the overall scheme of things.

Assuming we have 9 positions with 600 AB each, the difference between Howard’s .270 average and Mark Teixeira’s .300 Average is about 20 Hits over the course of 600 AB.  With Ryan Howard as your first baseman on a team that hits .300 — You end up with a .2965 or almost a .297 Average.  With Teixiera on a .300 Hitting team, you end up with .300 obviously.  Whether or not you think 3pts in BA is equal to 9HR and 20 RBI is up to you…

Pablo Sandoval also takes a huge hit for the opposite reason.  In order to take advantage of Sandoval’s .323 Projected Average, you’ll have to live with the San Francisco Giants inept offense.  Sandoval’s ability to play third definitely helps his overall value, but in the first base rankings, he’s just too high.  I find it hard to believe that he hit line-drives less than 20% of the time, considering that he wasn’t smash-killing homers.

Teams made it abundantly clear that they have absolutely no problem pitching Sandoval outside the zone by throwing 60 percent of pitches off the plate.  Teams will continue to pitch Sandoval way out there until Sandoval actually stops swinging at ‘em:  Sandoval’s 41.5% swing rate on pitches outside of the zone is 16% higher than average and trails only Bengie Molina in the overall standings.   It’ll come down to whether or not you think Sandoval has the type of plate coverage to back it up.  I’m not sure if I throw Sandoval into the Guerrero/Suzuki realm of plate coverage at this point…

He did show the ability to take a walk last year, which is a good sign when you’re 2008 BB% was not even 3%.  In a nutshell, Sandoval absolutely kills the fastball-changeup combination.  Last year, he improved dramatically against the old uncle charlie, but that was more than likely statistical error in 2008– the kid can hit, but just how far he’ll chase pitches off the plate remains to be seen.  At this point, there’s just no reason to throw him anything even remotely close to the strike-zone.

Here are the averages and standard deviations from Pujols to Helton:

AVERAGE	CAT	STD_DEV
87.5	R	11.99
30.21	HR	8.66
98.79	RBI	16.05
3.61	SB	3.9
0.28	AVG	0.02

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With the Z-Scores, or standard deviations away from the mean, for just first basemen.   This is a great reference point for how much a first basemen will hurt vs. help you in any given category –  We’re assuming everyone get’s the same number of AB in this chart, which is different from the overall rankings which uses projections for AB.

PLAYER_NAME	Z-Score-R	Z-Score-HR	Z-Score-RBI	Z-Score-SB	Z-Score-AVG	Total
Albert Pujols	2.23	1.48	1.45	1.89	2.85	9.89
Ryan Howard	1.39	1.94	2.88	0.36	-0.6	5.96
Prince Fielder	1.05	1.71	1.76	-0.41	0.6	4.7
Mark Teixeira	1.39	0.9	1.63	-0.41	0.95	4.46
Miguel Cabrera	1.55	0.21	0.2	-0.16	1.6	3.4
Adrian Gonzalez	0.71	1.25	0.45	-0.93	0.2	1.68
Mark Reynolds	0.71	0.9	0.2	3.69	-1.6	3.9
Kevin Youkilis	0.8	-0.26	0.2	0.36	1.3	2.4
Justin Morneau	0.04	0.32	0.76	-0.93	-0.1	0.1
Joey Votto	-0.21	0.09	-0.42	0.87	1.15	1.48
Derrek Lee	0.71	-0.37	0.2	-0.41	0.75	0.88
Billy Butler	0.21	-0.14	0.01	-0.67	0.95	0.36
Kendry Morales	0.04	-0.02	0.14	-0.16	1.05	1.05
Carlos Pena	0.21	1.02	0.26	-0.67	-1.9	-1.08
Adam Dunn	-0.38	0.9	0.08	-0.41	-1.85	-1.67
Chris Davis	-0.88	0.55	-0.11	-0.41	-0.75	-1.6
Lance Berkman	0.04	-0.49	-0.49	0.87	-0.1	-0.16
Pablo Sandoval	-0.21	-0.72	-0.67	-0.16	2.15	0.39
Michael Cuddyer	-0.29	-0.72	-0.8	0.61	-0.45	-1.65
Adam LaRoche	-1.3	-0.26	-0.67	-0.67	-0.3	-3.2
Victor Martinez	-0.13	-1.41	-0.36	-0.93	0.5	-2.32
Jorge Cantu	-1.3	-1.06	-0.36	0.1	0	-2.63
James Loney	-1.55	-1.53	-0.86	0.36	1.1	-2.48
Carlos Delgado	-0.97	-0.6	-0.3	-0.41	-0.95	-3.23
Paul Konerko	-1.39	-0.26	-1.11	-0.67	-0.9	-4.32
Nick Swisher	-0.04	-0.37	-1.3	-0.67	-1.9	-4.28
Garrett Jones	-1.39	-1.06	-1.3	0.87	-0.8	-3.68
Todd Helton	-1.05	-1.99	-1.48	-0.93	1.45	-4

Sandoval

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers By Team

Fantasy Baseball has its share of guys drafted in the late rounds, or picked up for a dollar that really pan out.  You’re generally not going to get anyone who absolutely kills it for a buck, or in the last round, unless you’re in a 10-12 team default league.  But here are some guy’s that’ll fill in nicely.

Minor Leaguers / Hot Prospects will have their own list, so they are excluded from this one.

Position Players

Anaheim Angels

Kendry Morales (1b) came over from Cuba in 2005 with a boatload of hype, and then proceeded to become spectacularly average.  The Fantasy World was abuzz just a few years ago about the Angels’ corner infielders, Dallas McPherson and Kendry Morales.  Then, they just stopped maturing, and when called up couldn’t produce.  None the less, Morales has had an incredible winterball season and obviously the talent is there.  Power hitting first basemen aren’t going to be gotten for a buck, but he’ll be cheaper come draft day.  Hopefully the Angels stay with Morales and resist the temptation to sign a first baseman.  Morales will produce and 25HR, 85RBI, 75R, and a .270 AVG seems reasonable.

Houston Astros

J.R. Towles (C) came into last year as the second hot catching prospect behind Soto. While Soto excelled as a major league backstop, Towles really shit the bed.  It Wouldn’t be out of the question to see Towles hit 15-20 HR, and Bill James has him hitting 17HR. Keep an eye on the starting Catcher’s job as Toby Hall was recently brought in to clean up the mess if Towles struggled.

Oakland Athletics

There’s going to be some value here, the problem is there are a lot of players around the same talent level fighting for jobs.

Ryan Sweeney (CF) wins the starting CF job, and has the possibility of going 15HR, 15SB.

Travis Buck (RF) has a tonne of talent, and flopped horribly last year.  He’s a top-tier young player that should develop power to go along with his solid batting eye.  As with all the stupid Athletics — Buck walks a lot and strikes out more.

Eric Patterson’s (OF /2B) AAA averages of .300+ have not translated well to the big leagues.  The Athletics acquired Patterson in the Harden deal, and will eventually end up with a solid player.  He’s got speed and, above all, second base eligibility.  If the Athletics can find a place for Patterson, he’ll be worth the dollar or two you’ll have to spend on him. His MLB strike-out rate isn’t a pretty sight though, so lets just hope he can drop it below 20%.

Daric Barton (1B) is yet another On Base Machine in the Oakland Athletics system.  He hit .347 in 84 PA in 2007, and then proceeded to stink up the joint (AAA and MLB) in 2008. Barton should have the inside gig on the first base job, with Jason Giambi as the DH.  If he continues to stink it up though; Giambi will move to first with Cust to DH which opens up the outfield for the two names above (Patterson or Buck).

Toronto Blue Jays

Travis Snider (OF / 1B) probably wont come as cheap as I’d like, but he should put up a solid rookie/sophmore season.  He came up for a cup of coffee in 2008, and impressed.  Generally listed among everyones top 10 MLB prospects, Snider is only 21 and has flown through the Jays system.  In limited action in 2008, he hit .300 with a couple dingers. There’s always the possibility the Jays start Snider off in the minors and keep him there for a good chunk, to save cash in the long run.  If Snider can keep ahold of the starting gig for the entire season, 20 HR aren’t out of the question.

While Snider may have more future potential, Adam Lind (OF) looks primed for a solid and productive 2009 campaign.  The Jays babied Lind quite a bit as he was coming through the system, and many Jays fans wanted Lind to stick with the big club a year earlier than he did.  Adam Lind has a realistic shot of hitting between .290 and .305 and, while his power numbers are sick-awesome, he should get to 20-25 HR on the season.  Lind brings incredible value to the table, and should be cheap come draft day.

Atlanta Braves

Josh Anderson(CF) will find a place to play in 2009, he’s gots-ta.  Anderson has quick-fast feet and should steal plenty of bases, cheaply.  He’ll hopefully get on-base somewhere between 33-35 percent of the time and could steal 35-40 bases this year if given the chance. Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones sit ahead of him, both of which have hopes and dreams of their own.  Anderson should be able to snake the starting CF job away from Blanco.  Anderson’s one of my favourites going into the season.

Martin Prado (UTIL) is a second baseman by trade, but has filled in for Chipper Jones and will continue to fill in at third whenever Jones goes down.  While Prado doesn’t have a starting gig, he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.  His .320 batting average last year was a result of a silly-stupid .360 BABIP but he appears to be a legitimate .290 – .300 hitter with not much else.  He gets on base, and has a good LD%.

Casey Kotchman will outperform his value, but by no means is he a sleeper.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bill Hall (3B) hit 290 in 2005, and everything was looking up. Then his strike out rates went as follows, presented with the corresponding averages: 2005 20 K%, .291  AVG, 2006 30 K%, .270 AVG, 2007 28 K%, .254 AVG, 2008 31 K%, .225 AVG.  To expect things from Hall is nutty, but if he can just manage to keep that bloody K percentage down to even 23-25%, he’ll be useful.

Anyone know if Alcides Escobar can play a solid third-base?

St. Louis Cardinals

Khalil Greene (SS). I like Greene this year, and I’m crazy for it.  It’s one of those doesn’t make sense gut feelings, that will either win you or lose you a fantasy league. Maybe he hits .260 and pulls his typical week with 5 HR, 4 Weeks with 0 HR type season.

David Freese (3B) went from three years of high and low A ball with the Padres to killing in triple A with the Cardinals.  Something smells fishy, but he’s listed as the guy behind Glaus.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Fontenot (2B) is the closest thing to a sleeper on this team, and who knows if he’ll out-perform his value.  He deserves to start over Aaron Miles, but weird shit happens in the windy city.  Keep an eye on this little situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Felipe Lopez (2B) will be filling the void at second left by Orlando Hudson, the O-Dog. I’m pretty high on Lopez, but he’s got some attitude issues.  Lopez probably makes my list of top 10 sleepers going into 2009. He should get down to business and put up some incredibly solid numbers.  He’s capable of batting .290 and stealing 30 or more bases, which cant be said for the other guys Melvin might think of batting atop the order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lopez occupy the 1 or 2 hole, and reap the rewards of a solid Arizona Diamondbacks line-up.

Lopez played 13 G at SS, 13 G at 3B, 17 G in the OF, and 101 at 2B.  Check your league settings because Lopez could be the ultimate fill-in.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Do the Dodgers get a deal done for Manny Ramirez?  If not Juan Pierre (OF) might become a bit more attractive with his huge contract floating around. However, Pierre’s name may add a couple bucks to his actual price tag, which you might care to avoid. 40 SB from someone who wont kill your batting average is always nice though.

Blake DeWitt (2B / 3B) has the inside line on the second base job over Mark Loretta.  He doesn’t bring anything particularly sexy to the table, but the kid can play.  The second and third eligibility helps.  All and all nothing overwhelming in Dodger-land.

San Francisco Giants

Lots of Fun in Giants camp! Pablo Sandoval (3B, 1B, C) is everyones favorite sleeper for the entirty of Fantasy Baseball for 2009.  He’s not a sleeper anymore, but the kid can play and did play 11 games at Catcher, 12 at third base, and 17 at first.  It looks like he’ll be playing third this year, but check your league settings.  Nothing is more annoying than finding out someone isn’t eligible for a position.  If he’s eligible for catcher in your league, snatch him the hell up.

Emmanuel Burriss (SS / 2B) should win the job over Kelly Frandsen, maybe.  Along with Burriss, Eugenio Velez (2B) has a shot of snagging that opening.  Velez will bring you ridiculous SB, and could be solid but is going to have issues matching Burriss defensively.  It’ll be itneresting to see how this plays out, as both Burriss and Velez should be able to get you a bunch of SB, assuming they win the job.

Cleveland Indians

Matt Laporta (OF / 1B) will go with the rookie rankings but hopefully he plays this year for the big club.

The Indians have quite a few guys with room for improvement and maturity, yet none of them really classify as sleepers. Shin-Soo Choo (OF / RF) looks darn good and had quite the season in just under 100 games for the tribe last year. The .309 BA is nice, but the .373 BABIP is ridiculous. His Line Drive percentage is nice and pretty above 20%, but .373 is ridiculous.  He got lucky, but he can still go and hit 20+ HR for the tribe this year, and he does still have some speed in the tank (enough for 10SB? Maybe)

Keep an eye on Ben Francisco as well, the other corner outfielder.

The Entire Indians Infield (DeRosa, Cabrera, Peralta, and Garko) have the ability to eclipse their dollar value / draft round, in 2009.  Not sleepers, but worth a look. I’m especially high on Cabrera and Garko, as the other two have gotten their fair share of pre-season hype.

Seattle Mariners

What a waste-land.  I’m not a fan of the Mariners, at all. Everytime they come to Toronto, hoards of japanese people come out and scream their faces off at Kenji Johjima and Ichiro Suzuki.  They’re like rockstars, and the 16-22 year old Japanese girls that scream for them act like their white peers at an All American Rejects concert.

Jeff Clement (C) isn’t a sleeper, but he should outperform his draft stock.

Florida Marlins

Much better, the Florida Marlins have some sleepers. Jeremy Hermida (RF) has all the tools to be great, not just good — but GREAT.  Most fantasy owners get pissed off when they read about sleepers for a couple years, and they just never pan out. Hermida falls into this group, the post hype sleeper group. 2008′s 28 percent strike-out rate is a weeeeeeeee bit concerning, but sometimes you just gotta trust your eyes and go with that sweet sweet swing.

Cameron Maybin (OF) should be good, not quite yet though — He’ll be hanging out with LaPorta in the “rookies who can make a difference” room.

John Baker (C), Oh how I like thee.  His outlook looks good, and he’ll be great value in the last round or two of your draft — If he flops, which he could well do, just cut bait.  Otherwise, I’m fixin’ on predictin’ 350-400 AB to go with 15 HR

Dallas McPherson (3B) should be good but the hype machine is starting it’s engines, and with the ridiculous amount of homers he’s put up in the Minors the past couple years — the experts are remembering just how much they LOVED McPherson 5 years ago.

New York Mets

The Mets’ outfield other than Beltran looks to have a good bit of talent floating around it. I’m generally against listing sleepers from big market teams, as ESPN tends to showcase the hell out of them but Ryan Church (OF) has been solid, but not spectacular for sometime now, and other than a broken brain looks good. With Church, you might get 20 HR, a handful of steals, and a guarenteed .275 average.  He’s quite serviceable in deeper leagues. The 20-25% K rate is concerning, but if he’s adding power while doing it — I’ll take it.

Daniel Murphy (OF / 2B? / 3b?) could make a big impact in fantasy circles this year. His .386 BABIP last year inflated his stats, but he’s still only 24 years old. Murphy can play just about anywhere, but will start the season qualifying only as an OF.  There’s a chance with the right set of circumstances that he snags eligibility at 2B and/or 3B.  If he comes out of camp as the starting second baseman, he’s value is going to be solid as all hell. His LD rate was a stupid-silly 33 percent last year, which makes that .386 BABIP not so ridiculous and while his K rate was 20+ percent last year — he should drop it down below 20 (if minor league stats have any influence whatsoever on MLB stats). If Murphy can steal 10 bases, which he’s more than capable of, he’ll be useful in all but the most shallow of leagues. If you consider him a sleeper, Murphy is top 5.

Jeremy Reed (OF) came over from Seattle, and the talent’s there.  He hasn’t managed to put it together, and his top-prospect status is long gone. Maybe he’ll react well to being out of Seattle and begin putting up the numbers once expected of him.

Washington Nationals

Their outfield is stacked with former top prospects, absolutely stacked.  I’m not sure if it’ll ever gell considering the attitude that’s out there but:

Lastings Milledge (OF) was the chosen one in the Mets farm system for a few years before coming over to the Nats.  As with all New York prospects, the great ones are blown up way too big, and the smaller ones get lost in the shadows to become great players. Milledge does have the talent though, as he can easily steal 25 bases to go along with his developing power.  Last Years 14 HR season should be improved upon, actually all of his numbers should be improved upon. If he can keep his LD rate above 20, and his K rate below it — he could outperform the massive hype surrounding him..lets hope.  He’s not a one dollar sleeper, and you’ll have to pay to get him but the potential is there.

Elijah Dukes (RF / OF) has more power than Milledge, but also has more issues.  If Dukes has 15 wives and each wife has 2 children, and each child has 3 Daddies,  how many children is Dukes really the father of? Dukes has all the talent in the world and if everything goes well he could smash his draft day value. Read this carefully: Elijah Dukes could reasonably go 30HR and 30SB, with a .275BA given he reaches about 600PA.

Josh Willingham (LF / OF) could get to 25 HR pretty easily, but keep in mind his BA isn’t pretty and he strikes out a hella-lot.

Jesus Flores (C) could be one to keep an eye on, but he’s not particularly a sleeper.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore and Mike Flanagan are doing a terrific job building their organization the right way — by fleecing other teams of their young talent.

Matt Weiters (C) cannot possibly be considered a sleeper, and he’ll join Laporta, Maybin, and Escobar in the Rookie Category.

Even Adam Jones (CF / OF), one of the nicest guys in baseball, isn’t particularly a sleeper.  He’ll improve upon his numbers of last year, and he’s a super prospect but you’ll probably have to pay some cash money to get him.  Jones has 20 HR pop in his bat as soon as this year, and on a team that loves to just go out and have fun — he should be fun to watch.  Throw in 10-15SB, and you’ve got yourself a ballplayer.

Felix Pie (LF / OF) will more than likely be a second half sleeper.  It may be worth it to draft him, but I’d wait a few months before grabbing him.  If your league is shallow, feel free to grab the speedy young OF whom the Cubs gave the Orioles for essentially nothing.  If he’s allowed to run free, expect a cheap source of stolen bases.

San Diego Padres

I’m not sure where I stand on Chase Headley (OF / 3B?). The Kid has all of the talent in the world, but is it too soon? Chase strikes out too damn much, 31.4% K Rate! but when he does hit the ball he’s a line-drive machine, 25% LD! The Homers aren’t there, but he’ll grow into it eventually — He’s a sleeper, but not one i’d like to have on my team unless I’ve got balls of steel. If Kouzmanoff gets hurt and Headley can move to third, we’ve got a whole new ball-game.

Edgar Gonzalez (2B) might be worth a look if not for that pesky David Eckstein.

Philadelphia Phillies

World Champs don’t produce sleepers.

Raul Ibanez (OF) might be worth a long, long, look though.  He’s no world champ — but he is a .290 hitter with power, who’s numbers have been skewed by Seattle’s awful ballpark.

Who know’s how he’ll adjust to NL pitching after 10 years in the AL, but he’s worth a very very long look.  He wont come for a buck, but i bet he outperforms his cost by at least 3 to 5 dollars.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Rookie Outfielders Andrew McCutchen (OF), Steve Pearce(OF), Jose Tabata(OF) could all make a difference in your fantasy league this year depending on its size.  They’re getting hucked into the Rookie category. I was thinking of putting Pearce here, but it’s easier to put him with the other two star prospects.

Really only Andy LaRoche (3B) sticks out as someone I’d genuinely like to have on my roster.  While Freddy Sanchez (2B) could put up a solid batting average, he’s too hit or miss.

Andy’s brother Adam LaRoche (1B) is primed for a breakout year but is in no way a sleeper.

Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus (SS) can boogey, and he’s won the starting shortstop gig. The Rangers were wise to sign Omar Vizquel (SS) just incase.  Andrus gets thrown in with the other rookies later, to a lesser extent.

Anyone in the Texas Line-Up should produce solid numbers, as Arlington is a  bloody Band-Box.

Take David Murphy (OF) if he takes the LF job, and all signs point to yessir — he’ll put up stellar numbers.

Chris Davis (1B / 3B) lost his position as a sleeper the day he was born, so please dont ask.

Tampa Bay Rays

I cant seem to find a sleeper here; eveyrone on their squad should probably perform up to par. Ben Zobrist (OF / SS) qualifies at shortstop and could well snag the right field job, but I still woulnd’t count on that many AB. His power seemingly came out of nowhere and with a 13% LD rate and a corresponding .255 BABIP, things dont look particularly solid moving forward. He’s got a solid walk rate (13%) which negates most of his 20% strike-out rate.  Hrmm, it’s interesting.

Matt Joyce (OF) who’s penciled in ahead of Zobrist at RF could provide you with solid power numbers to go with a beautifully awesome .260 AVG. Joyce strikes out about a quarter to a third of the time, but he’s a true masher. Against righties Joyce should put up solid numbers, and maybe your league undervalues him.

If you can get Joyce on the cheap, you’ll be incredibly happy as he’ll put up great numbers.  Just dont over-pay, mind you — what is overpaying for 30HR in 500 AB?

Keep his name on your cheat sheet and snag him if the time is right.

Boston Red Sox

There’s no sleepers on this team, who are we kidding. If Ortiz gets dead, Rocco Baldelli (OF / DH) should put up solid numbers.

Cincinatti Reds

Jay Bruce (OF) is a sleeper, sort of — I tend to think he’ll be overvalued come draft day but there’s no way to dismiss his raw talent.  He’ll be thrown in with the rookies as he compares best to them.

I like Jerry Hairston Jr (OF / SS) to be a solid source of steals for your middle infield, assuming he can hold off newly arrived masher Johnny Gomes (OF). If Gomes can get himself 350 AB, he seems to hit 20HR.  If he can land a full time gig, expect those numbers to go up in the Great American Bandbox. Striking out 30% of the time isn’t optimal, but if the HR come with it — The Reds will take it.

The whole Reds’ team should play well, with Encarnacion putting up a few more dollars than he’s worth along with Brandon Phillips.  There’s no reason to not take a Red this year.

Colorado Rockies

You’ve gotta take anyone with talent pretty serious in Colorado.

Ian Stewart (2b? / 3b?) has entered the hype machine and as of January, Garrett Atkins is in LF?? Stewart’s not a sleeper, but he should produce and strike out given playing time.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF) the 243 tooled player acquired in the Holliday deal should rake given the chance.  I have him in my top 5 sleepers.  The man swings at everything, in the zone or outside of it and he strikes out too damn much but whatever.

Sometimes swinging at everything works — oh wait, you have to make contact when you swing at everything? Shit.  Gonzalez is still in my top 5.

Kansas City Royals

Mark Teahen (OF / 2B) is a solid player, and a half decent corner outfielder.  He is not a Second Basemen, but if the Royals switch him to second base as the rumours indicate — he may well be useful. Optimally, Teahan would gain second base eligibility and then return to the outfield but we’ll see. Teahan had a down year last year, and he’s still striking out at a 23% clip — so buyer beware.

Big Fat Billy Butler (1B / DH) and Kila Ka’Ailhue (1B / DH) along with Mike Jacobs (1B) should all see time.  Butler was everyones favourite sleeper last year, and Jacobs can just straight up mash. 25 to 30 homers seems about right for Jacobs, considering all things — but you’ll lose out on the counting stats. Ka’Ailhue should be interesting — i’m not sure if he’s a sleeper at this point or not, but boy can he hit.

Ka’Ailhue would have been a huge addition to any team if not for the Mike Jacobs trade, and maybe he’ll still contribute to a lesser extent. Maybe the youngster can sit down with Jacobs and explain to him why it’s beneficial to Walk almost as much, if not more, than you strike out.  Everything is there except playing time.

Alberto Collaspo (2B) just as a side note, i really like Alberto Collapso and whenever playing Baseball Mogul 2007? I made sure to add him to my team — he always got good around 2009.  Computers rule!

Detroit Tigers

Nothing seems to pop out about the Tigers. Maybe Gerald Laird (C) away from Texas? No thanks. Nice line-up though.

Minnesota Twins

Alexi Casilla (2B) isn’t a sleeper but should put up solid stats. If people start snoozing on Delmon Young (OF), this might be the year.  I’d be more than willing to take a risk on Young, banking that he finally put stuff together in his head.  Young’s got all the talent in the world but like so many of these uber-talented top-prospects, maybe his work ethic isn’t quite there.  I’m not going to predict 20 HR for Young, but you should know incredibly early in the season whether or not he’s going to continue grounding balls harmlessly into the outfield.

Nick Puntu (UTIL / Everywhere) should also contribute.

Chicago White Sox

Should be interesting.  Josh Fields (3B) can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown he can hit, yet. If Jerry Owens (OF) takes the CF job he should be a huge source of steals and more than likely Runs — if he can get on base at a decent clip.

I’m a big fan of super utility man Wilson Betemit (1B/3B/14G @ SS) but whether or not he gets playing time is a different story. His strike out rate is an ugly 25%, but I’d still give him a chance.

New York Yankees

Welcome to the hype-machine. Robinson Cano (2B) will bounce back but the only real sleeper here is Nick Swisher (1B / OF), who could well be dealt.

Swisher hit .219 last year, which is awful. Swisher generally doesn’t hit that well, and expecting more than .260 is goofy but boy does he walk. Expect a nice little return to the .375 range for Swishers OBP, and he’ll regain his .840 OPS form.

Swisher was apparently one of the most unlucky players in 2008, and many are predicting a rebound.

Very rarely do you see a players LD rate go up, while his BABIP dips 50 pts. If Swisher can find a way to get full time playing time, he’s a top 5 sleeper. I just don’t know how he does that in a crowded Yankees outfield — mind you, it’s a crowded AGING Yankees outfield.

Sandoval

Fantasy Baseball 1st Base, First Base, Rankings in 2009

The first base position in fantasy baseball 2009 is deep, deep, deep. Due to the depth of the position, a few guys are going to be listed at the position which they can contribute the most, these include: Jorge Cantu, Garrett Atkins, Jeff Baker, Chris Davis, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Aurilia, Hank Blalock, Pablo Sandoval, Chris Duncan, Aubrey Huff.

Jorge Cantu, Garrett Atkins and Chris Davis are all top 20 fantasy first basemen but they’re quite a bit more valuable in other places.  If you already have a star third baseman, there’s no harm in drafting Chris Davis at first, but you’re not getting full value.

And then there is Pablo, Pablo, Pablo Sandoval.  Everyone’s loving him as a super sleeper at third base, as that .847 OPS and almost .500 SLG is the shit fantasy dreams are made of.

Lots of names on this list, and the old forgotten veterans or post-hype sleepers are generally where the value lies.

1. Albert Pujols

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Albert Pujols	524	37	7	100	116	0.357	0.462	0.653	1.93	1.114

Yah, he’s the best. He dominates every category, and that .357 batting average spread over that many at-bats can really help your fantasy squad.  Alot of folk have him as the 1st overall player, but i’d prefer Hanley’s SB over Pujols AVG, and Power.

2. Mark Teixeira

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mark Teixeira	574	33	2	102	121	0.308	0.41	0.552	1.04	0.962

Everyone’s going to have Teixeira too high, including myself and I can’t do anything about it. He’s got a good eye, and great power and if he’s set free, he has 45 homers in him.  It’s always difficult to judge a players psychological fortitude, and how well he’ll adapt to the big apple but I’m sure Tex will be fine.

A return to 2005 seems in order: 112 R, 144 RBI, 43HR, .300 AVG and a handful of steals.

3. Ryan Howard

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Howard	610	48	1	105	146	0.251	0.339	0.543	0.41	0.881

Howard-Smash! Ryan Howard started out 2008 as awful as you can when you have your own commercial.

.251 wont happen again, and he shouldn’t even come close to .251. While his strike out rate is …concerning? He should be fine.  Expecting a .280 season seems to make a good deal of sense.  When you combine that with the guarantee of 40-50 HR, you’ve got yourself a fantasy all-star.

While I’m not sure where he falls overall just yet, I’m putting him here based solely on his insane RBI and HR totals.

Keep an eye on the littlest of the bash brothers, Chase Utley.  Howard’s numbers are always going to be linked with Utley’s, and if Utley misses a good deal of time Howard’s numbers will suffer.

4. Miguel Cabrera

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Miguel Cabrera	616	37	1	85	127	0.292	0.349	0.537	0.44	0.887

Miguel Cabrera started out pretty damn cold last year as well. The Detroit Tigers were a huge dissapointment last year, and somethings gotta change when you spend that much money.

I’m going to chalk Cabrera’s massive regression in the batting average department up to switching leagues.  I have no statistical data at all to back this up, but it seems about right.  Players don’t lose 30 pts off their batting average for no good reason, unless they decide they’re going to aim for the fences on every go.

From Cabrera, It makes sense to expect at least a .320 average, 35 HR, 100 Runs, and 130 RBI.

5. Lance Berkman

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Lance Berkman	554	29	18	114	106	0.312	0.42	0.567	0.92	0.986

I don’t know how the hell Lance Berkman stole 18 bases last year. It’s not like it was quantity over quality, Berkman only got caught 4 times!

Without the stolen bases, Berkman’s value drops a good bit.  I’m banking on about 5-10 steals, and that’s why he’s not the number two overall first baseman.

100 Runs, 30 HR, 120 RBI, 10SB, .300 average seems about right.

6. Prince Fielder

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Prince Fielder	588	34	3	86	102	0.276	0.372	0.507	0.63	0.879

You’d assume the potential energy that Fielder stores in his gut would provide a rather tremendous bounce-back year; and you’d be right!

I’m expecting Prince to fall somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 numbers: Just watch his Line Drive percentage over the first couple months.  He lowered it 6 percent! from 2007 to 2008 and just about everything suffered because of it.

So, Halfway between 2007 and 2008 brings us to: 42 HR, 95 Runs, 110 RBI, .285 average and 2.5 steals / defensive indifferences.

7. Justin Morneau

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Justin Morneau	623	23	0	97	129	0.3	0.374	0.499	0.89	0.873

I wonder how Morneau would do if he got out of Minnesota.  He’s an  MVP contender, just about every year and contributes across the board. While no-one compares to Pujols in the BB / K category, Morneau does a good job of keeping his strike-outs down for a power hitting first baseman.

His power numbers aren’t going to be elite, but he’ll definitely improve on last year’s 23HR.

Expect: 30 HR, 95R, 120RBI, .310 AVG and maybe a stolen base or two.

8. Adrian Gonzalez

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Adrian Gonzalez	616	36	0	103	119	0.279	0.361	0.51	0.52	0.871

Gonzalez is really progressing nicely, and while the Rangers seem like genius’ for grabbing former #1 pick Josh  Hamilton; they seem like fools for letting go of Adrian Gonzalez.  You win some, you lose some — i guess.

36 Home Runs may be asking a bitch much in 2008, but you never know.  I’ll take 30 HR, 100 R, 110 RBI, and a .280 average any day.

9. Kevin Youkilis

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Kevin Youkilis	538	29	3	91	115	0.312	0.39	0.569	0.57	0.958

A lot of folk, myself included, think that Youkilis was a better MVP candidate than his teammate Pedroia.

I really don’t know if Youkilis will keep up those power numbers, but everything else should stay consistent or improve.  Youkilis is even more valuable in leagues that use OBP instead of AVG.

29 Home Runs seems right, but I can’t bring myself to say he’ll top 25. Other than that, his Runs and RBI should add up to about 210, depending on where he’s batted.  His average will remain on the right side of .300, and he’ll continue to ball out.

10. Carlos Delgado

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Delgado	598	38	1	96	115	0.271	0.353	0.518	0.58	0.871

No reason to think that Delgado doesn’t swat 30 HR, 90 R, 110 RBI, while hitting .270.

Oh wait, there is one reason — he’s getting up there in age.  He really doesn’t miss mass amounts of games though, so even if you have to deal with a DL stint or two: Delgado still brings solid value as the 10th ranked first-baseman.

11. Derrek Lee

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Derrek Lee	623	20	8	93	90	0.291	0.361	0.462	0.6	0.823

When Derrek Lee was hitting 40 HR, or stealing 20 bases — he was extremely useful. Like Berkman-type-useful.

Lee isn’t doing that anymore, but the potential is still there to improve in both of those categories. Lee stole eight bases last year, yet he still has the potential to swipe 20.  I bet he easily beats Berkman in a foot-race, and he gets a great jump.

I’m cautiously optimistic with Lee, because if he doesn’t improve you’ve wasted a fairly high draft-pick on him.

His  numbers should be similar to last year 90R, 90RBI, 20-25HR, a nice BA, and about 10 steals but the potential for him to go for 30HR, and 15-20 Steals makes him very intriguing.

12. Joey Votto

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Joey Votto	526	24	7	69	84	0.297	0.368	0.506	0.58	0.874

Votto is Canadian, and I like Canadians.  I was certain that Dusty Baker would ruin Votto, and turn him into a shell of his former-prospect self.

Now, as we all know, rookies either get better or go through a sophomore slump.  Playing in the bandbox that is the Great American Ballpark, should help Votto improve.

Maybe Votto goes out and hits 28HR, 80 R, 100RBI, 10SB, and hits .280.

That’ll make his owners happy enough.

13. Carlos Pena

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Pena	490	31	1	76	102	0.247	0.377	0.494	0.58	0.871

I’m not sure what you’ll get from Carlos Pena this year, but anyone who can knock in 102 R in only 490AB requires a second look.

Pena was once  a Tiger’s prized prospect that never seemed to pan out, and then upon his arrival in Tampa, he brought the awesome.

Carlos Pena probably wont  top 40 HR again, but 30 is reachable along with  100RBI.  Just depends if he plays or not — he can also steal 10 bases, if he’s allowed to run.  Ten SB might be optimistic, so lets go with 30HR, 80 R, 90RBI, .265 AVG, and 6 SB.

14. James Loney

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
James Loney	595	13	7	66	90	0.289	0.338	0.434	0.53	0.772

I love me some James Loney.  I figured he’d break out last year, and I got screwed. If James Loney can follow Derrek Lee’s career path, he should be good.

Until Loney develops power, he’s going  to be average. I figure this is the year that he develops enough power to become a legitimate threat to opposing teams. Every prediction system known to man has Loney hitting 13-14 HR.  I have Loney hitting 22HR

Dont ask why, but it’s Loney time: 22HR, 100RBI, 75R, .290 AVG, 6-10HR.

He’s a super-sleeper! He should out-preform his dollar-value by at least 5 bucks.

15. Conor Jackson

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Conor Jackson	540	12	10	87	75	0.3	0.376	0.446	0.97	0.823

Another light-hitting contact hitter in a position that almost demands 25 HR. Conor Jackson’s eye alone, should keep him relevant in the fantasy community.

The Runs and RBI keep him at least somewhat roster-able as a first baseman, but there’s plenty of other places to get 12HR, and 10SB.

I’m almost as high on Jackson as I am on Loney, so I’ll go with 18HR, and 10SB and the rest of the stats are pretty much set in stone unless he can score himself more than 600 Plate Appearances. In which case, his stats will go up as you’d expect them too.

16. Casey Kotchman

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Casey Kotchman	525	14	2	65	74	0.272	0.328	0.41	0.92	0.738

I’m making a bad habit of putting these light-hitting first-basemen over some guarenteed heavy hitters.

These guys will all grow into their power, and Kotchman should continue to improve upon last years numbers.

Expect 20+ homers on a shiny-brand-new-braves-team.

17. Ryan Garko

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Garko	495	14	0	61	90	0.273	0.346	0.404	0.52	0.75

Everyone was high on Garko last year, and he disappointed just about everyone. Last year was just a mistake, and he’ll improve on the 21 HR he hit in 2007.

25 Home Runs is a very very reasonable expectation.  Garko’s another sleeper for me, and in that Indians’ offense — he should produce.

18. Mike Jacobs

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mike Jacobs	477	32	1	67	93	0.247	0.299	0.514	0.3	0.812

Jacobs can smash it.  If you’re so inclined, go ahead and move the newly branded KC Royal up above those light-hitting average guys.

Jacobs’ numbers are hard to predict with the move, but his power numbers should hover around that 30 mark.  Jacobs has got a boat-load of pure power, but he tends to miss the ball quite a bit when he’s aiming for those fences.

19. Jason Giambi

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jason Giambi	458	32	2	68	96	0.247	0.373	0.502	0.68	0.876

Rebirth. Sweet Sweet Rebirth. I’ve always admired Giambi for admitting his mistakes, and the Yankees definitely knew he was juicing when they signed him to that mega-deal.

Unfortunately, crap happens.  There’s a lot of risk associated with Giambi and his pimple-ridden steroid back — but he could also go for 30 dingers  and  90 RBI.

20. Billy Butler

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Billy Butler	443	11	0	44	55	0.275	0.324	0.4	0.58	0.724

Big-Fat-Billy-Butler. He can hit, and he has hit in every level except the major league level.  You may think .275 is fine for a first baseman, but Butler’s value is going  to come based on the number of points he hits above 300.

He’s primed for a decent year, but there’s going to be more than a few bumps.  Get on him while he’s hot, and enjoy the ride while it lasts.

21. Todd Helton

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Todd Helton	299	7	0	39	29	0.264	0.391	0.388	1.22	0.779

I suppose Helton was primed for an injury plagued season sooner or later, considering he’d played 140 games each and every year since that eventful day his father forgot to pull-out.

He’s not the guy that hit 30 Homers, and knocked in 120 anymore. But there’s still value in a guy that can hit 20+ HR, and carry a 300 average.

There’s great value here, and it’s probably worth the risk.  I’ll keep bouncing Helton up this board as it gets closer and closer to opening day.  Let’s just make sure he’s healthy by opening day, before we go and do that though.

22. Paul Konerko

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Paul Konerko	438	22	2	59	62	0.24	0.344	0.438	0.81	0.783

We’re getting into the junk-pile here.  Konerko is like Helton, but without the average.  Sure he’s got the potential to hit 20-25HR, but the average will kill you.

23. Adam LaRoche

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Adam LaRoche	492	25	1	66	85	0.27	0.341	0.5	0.44	0.841

LaRoche has solid big-league power, but he’s yet to harness it — quite yet.  LaRoche, like Helton, will start moving up this draft board as I start convincing myself that he can maintain his offensive output.

A couple of years ago LaRoche looked like the next big thing, hitting 30 HR and essentially 90 R and 90RBI while hitting .285.

He’s about this far (  ) from repeating a season like that.  Obviously the R and RBI may be harder to come by in Pittsburgh, but he’s primed for a solid year.  Actually, i’ve decided to bounce him up — I’m just too lazy to do it now.

24. Nick Swisher

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Swisher	497	24	3	86	69	0.219	0.332	0.41	0.61	0.743

Swisher moves way up if you’re in a OBP over AVG league.  With that said, he needs to swing the damn bat.  He’s not that far removed from being a 20HR, 80RBI, 80R, 260AVG guy.

He should bounce back, if he’s given opportunity.  Right now, the Yankee’s outfield looks like a mess and I’m not sure how the depth chart will shape up.  If he plays, he contributes.

He gets on base, and he’ll score a boatload of runs but with the resigning of Melky Cabrera, he may be on the way out.  Just keep an eye on the Yankees roster, and adjust your Swisher Ranking accordingly.

If Swisher gets an everyday gig, he’s amazing value as I’m sure he’ll be closer to .275 than the .220 he put up last year.

25. Daric Barton

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Daric Barton	446	9	2	59	47	0.226	0.327	0.348	0.66	0.674

talent’s there.

26. Nick Johnson

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Johnson	109	5	0	15	20	0.22	0.415	0.431	1.32	0.846

It’s here too, unfortunately Nick Johnson should have been Bruce’s Willis’ nemesis in “Unbreakable”.

27. Hank Blalock

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Hank Blalock	258	12	1	37	38	0.287	0.338	0.508	0.48	0.846

And to think there was a time when Blalock was just the prospect that Teixiera was…and to think.

Anyways, Blalock is here because I personally hate the man.  He’ll be moved up to 20th or so, as he can still swat.

25 Home Runs, here we come.

Sandoval

Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2009: Third Basemen

Top 3rd Basemen: The Chlamydia Corner, The Worm Burners.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	510	35	18	104	103	0.302	0.392	0.573	0.56	0.965

One of these days Alex Rodriguez is going to be overtaken by David Wright, but not yet.  Alex Rodriguez brings value across the board, and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon. There’s no reason to think that his power numbers will decline anytime soon, and he should post an OPS around 1.000 each and every year.

The curious part is his stolen base numbers. Each and every year I assume that his SB numbers will dip below 15, and then he goes and hikes it up to around 20. He’s obviously never going to steal 46 bases again, but counting on somewhere between 15 and 20 is a safe assumption.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
David Wright	Mets	626	33	15	115	124	0.302	0.39	0.534	0.8	0.924

Wright has developed into one of the more consistant fantasy players out there, and he’s definitely 1b rather than 2nd overall in these rankings. Unlike Rodriguez, David Wright doesn’t have the potential to go and put up 45 home runs unless absolutely everything goes right.

Wright does have the potential to steal 30 bases, and is one of the few players who even has the potential to go 25/25, let alone 30/30.  Depending on who you’re targetting in the later rounds, the extra 10 SB Wright puts up may be worth the loss in HR between him and Rodriguez.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	554	27	2	97	111	0.289	0.38	0.518	0.79	0.898

The Cubs are stacked and Ramirez is consistant, and consistancy is key in these early rounds.  You’re going to get what you pay for with Ramirez, 30 HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ Runs, and a .300 average.  There are other third baggers that could put up better numbers than Ramirez, but they come with a bit more risk.

The second tier of third basemen clearly ends with Wright and begins with the next couple of guys.  I’ll take consistancy on a great team over potential, any day of the week.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Evan Longoria	Rays	448	27	7	67	85	0.272	0.343	0.531	0.38	0.874

Oh the potential! Everything you look for in a third basemen, Longoria has. In only 448 AB last year, Longoria threw up amazing numbers.  With a year under his belt and a full time starting gig, Longoria should improve upon his numbers across the board.

Longoria plays on a young, and obviously talented, Tampa Bay Rays team.  There’s more than enough protection on either side of him in the line-up, and they’ve had a taste of success.

The one thing to watch with Longoria are his strikeouts and his lack of walks. Players can succeed with a BB:K ratio of .40, but it’s not something you’d like to see. This screams sophmore slump, so watch out.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Chipper Jones	Braves	439	22	4	82	75	0.364	0.47	0.574	1.48	1.044

Chipper has all the talent in the world, but his body is breaking down and asking for 500 AB is probably asking too much.  However, when I value a third basemen — I fill in the missing at bats with a replacement level player. Even in a 14 team league, there are still plenty of third basemen that you can throw in after Chipper has made his annual DL trip.

Third Base is probably the deepest position of them all this year, so drafting Chipper isn’t as risky as it seems.  He’ll probably bat .330+ and hit 20-25 Homers, with the possibility of .350 and 35 Homers.  Chipper is one of the few third basemen who actually have an eye, and has an above 1.00 B/KK ratio.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	538	29	3	91	115	0.312	0.39	0.569	0.57	0.958

I didn’t think Youkilis would succeed last year, or at least put up the 29 home runs.  There was nothing out there that predicted 30 Homers from Youkilis, but that’s how the cookie crumbles.  You will get a solid average from Youkilis, along with a great On Base Percentage.

All of the prediction models have Youkilis around 20 Homers, but there’s no reason Youkilis can’t repeat his 29 HR season of last year.  He plays in a great line-up and will add mass amounts to either your R or RBI depending on where he’s batted in the line-up.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Aubrey Huff	Orioles	598	32	4	96	108	0.304	0.36	0.552	0.6	0.912

It hurts me to put Aubrey Huff here. I’m not a Huff fan, and he’s managed to put up spectacularly average numbers each and every year.

Last year was ridiculous though, absolutely ridiculous, and maybe he finally put everything together.  He clearly has the talent, and always has had it — it’s just putting it all together. Anyways, the potential for .300 and 30HR is hard to resist.  In a young, talented Orioles line-up, Huff should flourish.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Chone Figgins	Angels	453	1	34	72	22	0.276	0.367	0.318	0.78	0.685

It’s impossible to rank Chone Figgins properly against other third-basemen, as his skill-set is pretty much the opposite of every other third basemen.  He compares better to the second basemen, shortstops or centre-fielders. Anyways, I like to ignore Figgins unless you plan on ignoring stolen bases from other typical SB heavy positions.

If that is the case, Figgins is a must.  If your outfield, or middle infield has power guys — then why not get 30-40 SB from your third-bagger.  He’ll obviously improve on his 22 RBIs from last year, so long as he stays healthy.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Garrett Atkins	Rockies	611	21	1	86	99	0.286	0.328	0.452	0.4	0.78

I’m not certain how the Rockies play out this year, and I’m not sure what Garrett Atkins is going to show up.  With Ian Stewart waiting in the wings, who knows if Atkins stays in Colorado.  If he gets traded, his value drops immensely.

If he does play the entire year in Colorado, he should continue putting up damn good numbers at the hot-corner.  His average took a big hit last year, and he should hike it back past .300 in 2009.  Other than that, 30 Homers and 100+ RBI seem about right.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Melvin Mora	Orioles	513	23	3	77	104	0.285	0.342	0.483	0.53	0.826

He’s not a young sexy sleeper, and Baltimore is over-shadowed by New York and Boston.  He produces though, and he puts up consistant numbers.  The average could be anywhere between .275 and .330.  The Homers should be on the nice side of 20, and the RBIs and Runs should pile up with such a solid Orioles offense.

While the next couple guys: Cantu, Davis, Reynolds and Gordon will  probably produce better than Mora — Mora is safe, real safe.  Maybe I’ll move Mora down, maybe not.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jorge Cantu	Marlins	628	29	6	92	95	0.277	0.327	0.481	0.36	0.808

Good Ol’ Jorge. There was a time when Jorge Cantu played for the Devil Rays and was quite the second base dynasty prospect.  He’s not particularly defensive minded by any means, but he’s young and he can swing the stick.  Then, he dissappeared.

Anyways, it looks as though perennial Minor-League smasher, Dallas McPherson may have grabbed the third-base gig for 2009, with Jorge Cantu moving to first after the Mike Jacobs trade.  I’m sure this is a good thing for Cantu, but who knows.  Cantu still strikes out too much, walks too little, and has an awful OBP.  When he does make contact though, it goes a long way.  The Marlins offense appears to be coming along, and depending on where you get him — Cantu is either a steal with lots of upside, or a huge bust with lots of risk.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Christopher Davis	Rangers	295	17	1	51	55	0.285	0.331	0.549	0.23	0.88

Davis is flying up draft-boards and is one of every magazines sleepers.  The kid can hit, and did so in his limited action in 2008.  However, one of these young third-basemen is going to flop.  The K numbers and plate discipline just aren’t there, and this is the case with many of the young corner-infielders.

Davis’ numbers are hard to resist though: In 295 AB last year, he damn nearly slugged .550 with 17 Home Runs.  Boy, can Davis hit.  He’s clearly worth the risk, but expectations need to be held in check considering his massive K rate.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Guillen	Tigers	420	10	9	68	54	0.286	0.376	0.436	0.9	0.811

Guillen was plagued by injuries last year, and only managed 420 AB. Guillen brings with him a different sort of risk than many of the younger third basemen listed both above, and below, him: Injury Risk.

If you think Guillen can keep his ass, literally his ass, healthy then he’s worth a pick earlier than this point. Depending on his position in the line-up, his R or RBI should be around 100 with the other at about 80 and Guillen actually manages to take a walk or two.  He’s a solid hitter, without great pop, and wont particularly contribute to the SB category — although you can expect 5-10, fairly.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	428	14	1	51	51	0.283	0.333	0.442	0.44	0.774

Ryan Zimmerman is another young 3rd baseman, who’s been around long enough to start producing some dirty-ass numbers.  This should be the year that everything comes together, and Washington is starting to look like a half-decent team.

I genuinely have no clue where to actually rank Ryan Zimmerman, but just take a look at his stats and figure it out for yourself.  I suppose you either like him, or you dont. You either like Stud players on bad teams, or you dont.  On a good team, Zimmerman would actually see some pitches, but until someone steps up — teams will continue to pitch around the National best hitter.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mark Reynolds	Diamondbacks	539	28	11	87	97	0.239	0.32	0.458	0.31	0.779

Here we go again, all sorts of talent but strikes out way too damn much. His BB/K ratio isn’t awful because he doesn’t walk, he’s got a bit of Adam Dunn in him, and he’s got a 10% BB rate but he damn near strikes out 40 percent of the time.

Reynolds would be much more useful in an OBP over AVG league, as his .240 average at least becomes a respectable? .320 OBP.  Reynolds is going to steal some bases, hit some HR, and come close to 100 RBIs and Runs.  He’s a ridiculous talent, but his average will kill you.

Of course, if Reynolds improves his average it will certainly come at the loss of some power but he’d still be pretty attractive at 20-25 HR, 80 Runs, 90 RBI, and a .260 AVG.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alex Gordon	Royals	493	16	9	72	59	0.26	0.351	0.432	0.55	0.783

If you’re not on crack like myself, go ahead and move Alex Gordon down 3-4 spots.  I adore crack-cocaine however, and Gordon’s staying here. I’m figuring Gordon puts up a great year, in a poor offense, and finally puts everything together.

Alex Gordon has just as much talent as Evan Longoria, and/or Ryan Braun, yet for some reason he hasn’t put the peices together.  This is the year he swats 35 Homers, and steals 15 bases.  Its gotta be. He’s on the right track, keeping his K% under 25 percent and I can’t help but believe that Alex Gordon and Zack Greinke put the Royals back in the spotlight, at least for 3 weeks.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Edwin Encarnacion	Reds	506	26	1	75	68	0.251	0.34	0.466	0.6	0.807

He’s on the right track, and he’s just gotta keep that average up to maintain fantasy relevance.  He should be in for a break out year, and is just starting to come into his prime at age 26.

Go ahead and circle the hell out of Edwin Encarnancion on your draft card, becaue it genuinely looks like its break out year time.  He could finish as high as 3rd or 4th overall in the final rankings.  He could also be babied again, sent back down to the minors, and never heard from again. (Actually, i’m not sure about Edwins Contract Options — If he’s out of options, I suppose the Red’s wont baby him anymore.  Draft Edwin, if you’d like some risk)

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	544	27	0	69	99	0.27	0.372	0.483	0.84	0.856

I’m a Toronto Jays fan, and i tend to believe that Troy Glaus is a big-ol’ baby, who loves his steroids.

Glaus is bound to get hurt at some point, and when that massive injury occurs, I dont want to be the guy owning him.

Otherwise, Glaus has the potential to keep hitting 30 HR and 100RBI if he stays healthy.  An .850 OBP + SLG puts him in pretty elite company.  Stupid Glaus!

Glaus is already out and  is expected to miss 3 months of the season.  That took about 3 hours since the post.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Adrian Beltre	Mariners	556	25	8	74	77	0.266	0.327	0.457	0.56	0.784

I hate Adrian Beltre.  I hate that he’s got so much talent, and doesn’t play all-out. I hate that he had a good year in LA and got a massive contract from SEA.

Beltre is a great player, who’s younger than he seems, considering he’s been haunting fantasy squads for years.

The moment you forget about Beltre, he’ll go and put up 48HR and 120 RBI *cough cough* 2004.  He’s shown that he can knock out 30 a year while piling up a few SB, but I never want this man on my team.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mike Lowell	Red Sox	419	17	2	58	73	0.274	0.338	0.461	0.62	0.798

How is Mike Lowell still on the Red Sox? Who knows. You probably dont want to draft Mike Lowell, as there’s more than a few guys with great upside at this point.  Mike could return to his 120RBI prowess of two years ago, but i doubt it.

Still good value in this extremely deep 2009 third base class, here.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Casey Blake	- – -	536	21	3	71	81	0.274	0.345	0.463	0.41	0.808

Casey Blake is a safe pick here. He’s not a sexy prospect or an aging veteran, he’s simply a dude that produces and has a sparkling fucking beard.

Possibly the best beard in all of professional sports, ever.  Its thick and lusterous, and the dudes got a huge man-chin.  If he’s in Dodger-town LA all year, he’s got a good chance of hiking up those Run and RBI totals and playing a solid third base. While the know-it-all jerkoff may grab Ian Stewart or Kevin Kouzmanoff here, I’d stick with Casey Blake.

The Best Of The Rest Time:

• Ty Wigginton
• Dallas McPherson
• Joe Crede
• Kevin Kouzmanoff
• Ian Stewart
• Josh Fields
• Bill Hall
• Andy Laroche
• Pablo Sandoval
• Eric Chavez
• Brandon Inge
• Brandon Wood
• Travis Metcalf
• Brian Buscher
• Daniel Murphy
• Wilson Betemit
• Andy Marte
• Scott Rolen (I hate being a Blue Jays Fan)
• Jose Bautista (Truly Hate it, but Getting Bautista was a great call)

Third base is truly insane — from about tenth overall almost to the  bottom, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same numbers.  Pablo Sandoval is a huge sleeper that could easily put up better numbers than Edwin Encarnacion.

You pretty much have to take whomever falls into your lap.  I think the depth of this years 3rd base crop really devalues Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.