The Arizona Diamondbacks have one hell of a bullpen and realistically any one of five guys could close. Chad Qualls is doing an outstanding job having notched six saves in seven chances while sporting a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Qualls continues to sit around a strike-out per inning (12.6K/9,) and currently has a 14:1 K to BB rate. Qualls has a 9!!! GB:FB ratio and is currently sporting a .388 BABIP — basically, Qualls has been a Fantasy Jesus, thus far.

Behind Qualls is Tony Pena (1.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP,) Joe Rauch (9.00 ERA, 2.09 WHIP,) Scott Schoeneweis (2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and finally Juan Gutierrez (3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP.)

Juan Gutierrez has been making his way into a couple columns here and there due to his terrific 12.00 K per 9, and respectable 3.33 K per BB. Gutierrez is holding opposing batters to a .206 Batting Average with solid indicators that he’s for real.  Batters have an above average .330 BABIP, and he’s stranding a league-average 70% of batters. These indicators along with his strike-out rate has resulted in a FIP normalized to ERA of 1.71.

There are some statistical warnings though. Gutierrez is allowing 30% of his hits as line-drives, and 40% as fly balls.  These numbers haven’t come back to bite him in the ass as he’s yet to allow a home-run, but you’d expect him to finish the season somewhere around the 10-12% FB/HR range.  If Gutierrez continues to allow line-drives at a 30% clip, his BABIP is probably actually a little low at .330.  Expect some regression if he continues to get hard.

Coming from the Astros, Gutierrez wasn’t particularly special. Gutierrez ranked as high as the Astros’ 4th overall prospect, but the Astros system is rated the worst in the MLB. Something changed since Gutierrez last saw MLB action though.  I’d actually probably nail it down to this previous off-season, and here’s why:

Gutierrez’s K-Rate was stuck in the 6 batters per 9 range for a few years and levels.  Gutierrez had notched a strike out per inning way back in AA ball in 2006, but since then he’d leveled off.

My major concern is where Gutierrez found this magical added velocity that’s made him an elite strike-out pitcher.  The graphs below are Gutierrez’s Fastball Velocity, Curveball Velocity and Change Up Velocity.

All Graphs Courtesy of Fangraphs.com

Average Fastball Velocity Increase 91.8 to 94.5

Average Curveball Velocity Increase 75.7 to 81.1

Average Change Up Velocity Increase 80.9 to 85.1

Adding to Gutierrez’s effectiveness is the addition of a slider that averages 82mph. Gutierrez relies on it about 16 percent of the time, and there’s a possibility that it could simply be his curveball flattening out.  Both pitches have solid break, and I’m too lazy to look at spin.

Gutierrez looks good, but I have trouble believing that an across the board velocity increase is the result hard work and better mechanics. There’s a chance that Gutierrez was injured in 2007 when his baseline was recorded, but I cannot find any articles detailing an injury. With that said, Gutierrez could log quite a few innings and strike-outs if he stays healthy, which is a HUGE if, considering what I’m implying.

If you’re in the market for high-K relievers with good ratios, Gutierrez might not be a bad choice.  He hasn’t logged a hold or save yet, but if he continues to dominate he should find himself entering games where the Diamondbacks have the lead.

In 2007, no team had a better lefty/righty one-two punch than Cleveland and their two Rafaels.

The left-handed portion of the equation was Rafael Perez, who dominated in his first full big league season. In just over 60 IP, Perez compiled 1.78 ERA and 0.92 WHIP to go along with his 9.2 K/9 and 4.13 K/BB rate.

From the other side of the mound, Rafael Betancourt was equally as dominant at age 32. Betancourt posted a 1.47 ERA, 0.76 WHIP in nearly 80 IP. Betancourt posted guady strike-out numbers as well, striking out 9.08 batters per 9 while only walking just over 1 batter per 9.

Perez and Betancourt were simply dominant as set-up men for the Tribe and their dominance would continue into 2008, even if their luck drastically changed. Perez, who had posted a .248 BABIP and 84% Strand Rate in 2007;  found his numbers at .313 BABIP and 74% Strand Rate by the time 2008 came to a close. Betancourt regressed in a similiar manner, seeing his .246 BABIP in 2007 translate into a .323 BABIP in 2008. Betancourt’s 2007 Strand Rate of 86.4% also took a mighty hit, as he ended 2008 with a strand rate of a measely 70%.

While both players had great luck in 2007 and terrible luck in 2008, Perez’s skill level remained consistent.  Perez posted a 3.01 FIP in 2007 which only moderately increased to 3.22 in 2008. Betancourt, on the other hand, saw his FIP nearly double from 2007 (2.22 FIP) to 2008 (4.40.)

Thus, one would expert Betancourt to continue a slow age-induced decline while Perez, age 26, to continue his dominant ways. In 2009, this has been half true as it appears as though Betancourt is declining but Perez has been down-right awful.

Other than awful ERA’s, Perez (15.19 ERA / 6.27 FIP) and Betancourt (5.14 ERA / 4.40 FIP) share one devastating trait.  The stuff is still there, but neither one can avoiding walking batters.

Betancourt who owns a career average of 2.29 BB/9 is currently walking twice that number, at 4.50 BB/9.  Perez who’s career average sits just shy of three batters per nine, is currently walking an astonishing 7.59batters per nine.

Betancourt, whose strength has always been pounding the zone with his 92mph fastball, threw less than 60% of his pitches in the strike-zone last year for the first time since entering the league. In 2009, Betancourt’s continued to miss the zone, now throwing less than 50% of pitches inside the strike zone.

Although he doesn’t rely on location nearly as much as Betancourt, Perez has suffered the same fate. Perez has only been able to locate 45% of his pitches inside the zone thus far and needs to be much closer to 50% to be effective.

The PFX Data reveals that Betancourt and Perez both still have their downright nasty stuff.  The sample size is still relatively small, but both pitchers have eclipsed the 200 pitch mark, so it’s not completely useless. Both Betancourt and Perez have actually increased their average velocities, which could well be a result of overthrowing:  Perez is up one full mph across the board, while Betancourt is about half an mph faster than his career averages.

As you can see, Betancourt generally increases velocity as the season progresses. Below is a fastball velocity chart for the last two years, and is courtesy of fangraphs.com. I’d highly recommend checking out all of their graphs and trend-stats.

Rafael Perez’s velocity chart echos the same sentiments:  a slow and steady velocity increase over the course of the season.  It wouldn’t be a stretch to label both Perez and Betancourt as warm-weather pitchers, or second half pitchers.

In addition to the consistent velocity, the movement on both Betancourt’s and Perez’s pitches seems close enough to the mean that drawing any conclusion would be premature.   If you’re interested in this kind of stuff, feel free to scoot over to Perez’s fangraph page or to Rafael Betancourt’s fangraph page. They’ve both lost about half an inch of horizontal movement off their sliders, and you can take from that what you will.

The final piece to this puzzle of ineffectiveness is the hitters that they’re facing, obviously.  Perez has seen his overall Swing-Percentage drop almost 9 pts, from 49 percent to 40 percent. The main component of this decline is Perez’s O-Swing Percentage.  Perez’s swing percentage on pitches outside the zone has dropped from a 2007/2008 average of 35 percent, down to an awful 22.6 percent in 2009. In turn, hitters are making unbelievable contact on the pitches that they do make contact with, both inside (96% Z-Contact / up 10%) and outside of the zone (52% O-Contact / up 12%).

Betancourt is actually inducing more swings, and has returned his  Overall Swing Percentage (57%) to the level of his most dominant years.  Batters are making slightly better contact with all of Betancourt’s pitches, but the percentage falls well within the margin of error at this point.

At this point, Betancourt seems much improved from 2008 although his current ERA of 5.14 and WHIP of 1.64, don’t show it.  With Betancourt’s BABIP sitting at an ugly .364 and his strand-rate at a god-awful 60% — It’s a safe bet to invest in Betancourt to regain his form.  A Strike Out Per Inning, an ERA around 2.90, a 1.20 WHIP. Hopefully his BB / 9 will regress, but many of pitchers have been effective with a 2.00 K:BB ratio.

Rafael Perez on the other hand is a mess.  Perez has a higher ceiling and the potential to be lights out, racking up K’s, HLD’s and great ratios. Until Perez starts finding the strike-zone however, he’ll be useless. Perez’s BABIP is .418 and LOB% is 39.9% but that’s almost expected given that batters are either walking, or crushing a Perez mistake (27% of hits off him are LD.)

I’d venture to guess that Perez is either injured, or out of shape.  Either way, his mechanics are off and it’s going to take a while for him to get back on track.  I’d definitely keep an eye on Perez though, as his ERA is going to take forever to come down and all he has to do is start locating.  If you see Perez go a couple of games without a free pass or you’ve noticed him exhibit better control, snap him up.

The problems unfortunately do not end with Perez and Betancourt, as Kerry Wood (4.50 BB/9, 7.20 ERA, 4.08 FIP) and Jensen Lewis (3.95 BB/9, 5.93 ERA, 8.30 FIP) are both having the same issues. The Indians bullpen has infinite potential, and the back-end of it contains 4 players that are all capable of notching a strike-out per inning.

Until the relievers get their control issues sorted out, I’d be quite worried if I was expecting W’s from any of the Cleveland Indians starting pitchers. With such a small sample size, I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if the Weather was the prominent factor in the bullpen’s control issues. It realistically could be anything, but it’s definitely an organizational issue.

At the very least, keep in mind that Cleveland has managed to run into all of their opponents at the wrong time. They opened the season in Texas, and went on to play two over-achievers in Toronto and KC. From there, they played New York, KC, MIN, BOS, Detroit and then Toronto again.  The schedule definitely doesn’t get easier with a series against Boston, Detroit, Chicago, Tampa, KC, Cinci, TB, and then NY.  While it’ll be tough for things to get worse for Betancourt, Perez, Lewis and Wood, it’ll probably be just as tough to improve upon their number with their upcoming schedule.

Taking Care of Business: The Closer Report

I need a catchy title for a bi-weekly column, preferably based on a Canadian Hit Record.  Currently, BTO’s the front runner, but that may change.

It’s the 6th Inning of the Jays and Tigers, and Brandon Inge has just hit another home-run.  That Catcher eligibility is going to mean a lot if you’re in anything but the shallowest of leagues.  Two catcher leagues, or anything over 12 teams, and Inge has value.

Closer Report:

Toronto Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan of the Blue Jays hasn’t looked right in a while. When Ryan’s on, it doesn’t matter that he’s a lefty closer with less than ideal splits.  Unfortunately, the same qualities that make him a great closer, also make him a huge injury risk.  The torque placed on his elbow and rotator cuff creates ridiculous spin on his slider, but also creates the dreaded “inverted-L”

Scott Downs, another lefty, is next in line for save opportunities.  Downs is owned in 6.1 percent of ESPN leagues, which is up 2.1 percent.

Detroit Tigers

Well, this situation should be a blast to follow. After years of being the closer of the future, Fernando Rodney’s got the gig, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll hold onto the job with a walk rate approaching 5 batters per 9.

Brandon Lyon appears to be next in line, and he’s remarkably average which isn’t the high upside you’d like to see from a speculative closer.

Youngster Ryan Perry is where the action is at:  Perry was drafted in 2008 as the 21st overall pick and made the club along with fellow youngster Rick Porcello. Perry’s an interesting case, as he didn’t seem to catch fire until his Junior season with Arizona.  Perry has all sorts of K potential, and if he can continue to impress, he may be the Tigers best option at closer.

Baltimore Orioles

George Sherrill is another lefty closer with a lot of issues. Prior to the All Star break last year, Sherrill was on fire. Sherrill came tumbling back down to earth after the break, and posted a 4.73 ERA on the year.  Sherrill registered a  BB/9 on the wrong side of 5 in 2008, and he’s only projected to improve on it marginally in 2009. The projections range from Marcel’s 4.18 BB / 9 to ZiPS 4.69 BB / 9.

In steps Chris Ray, a proven closer, who missed all of 2008 due to injury that required Tommy John. In 2006, Ray converted 33 of 38 save opportunities. Ray exhibits slightly better control and strike-out ability than Sherrill, but whether or not he’s healthy is up for debate. If Ray’s fastball isn’t sitting around 95mph, you should take a wait-and-see approach. Ray’s combination of Fastball, Slider, Change, and Splitter is ideal for the closers spot. After allowing 2 ER versus the Yanks, Ray’s ownership is down 9 percent, to 42 percent in ESPN.

Washington Nationals

Joel Hanrahan seems to have the gig, and probably has about three or four blown saves worth of leeway after saving 9 games last year for the Nats. Hanrahan added almost 4 miles per hour to all of his pitches last year, and I’d definitely be checking his pfx data in the coming days (you can do this using gameday, or scooting over to fangraphs.com).

Steven Shell is next in line after posting a 2.16 ERA in 50 IP last year. Much of Shell’s success came down to luck, but he has the stuff to vault Rivera and the other Nats RP. Shell’s currently owned in .3% of ESPN leagues.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks closer role should keep you busy. It’s one of the few cloudy situations that could actually result in steady saves, if you guess right.  The closers role is currently occupied by 30-year old Chad Qualls, but Tony Pena and Joe Rauch are waiting in the wings. Qualls is currently owned in all but the shallowest fantasy leagues (94% ESPN Ownership)

Qualls has wonderful ratios, and a 8+ K per 9 rate, and 2ish BB per 9, makes for solid closer potential.  Qualls has great splits for a closer, and held both lefties and righties under a .230 batting average.

If Qualls fails, Rauch registered 17 saves with the Nats last year but looked terrible in his brief stint with the D-Backs (6.56 ERA).  The real value comes from Tony Pena, who has all the tools to succeed, but possibly lacks the make-up. Pena brings it at 95mph, and should register a 2.5-3 strike outs per walk. Pena’s currently owned in 2.7 percent of ESPN leagues.

The interesting part of this situation comes down to pitching philosophy.  Qualls, with his ground ball tendencies, is better suited for high leverage situations and Pena with his over-powering fastball, is much better suited for the 9th inning.

At this point however, the closer job is Qualls’ to lose.  With the amount of talent the Diamondbacks have in the pen, this situation could quickly become a closer by committee with no one getting more than 12 saves.

Atlanta Braves

Just a quickie here:  Gonzalez has a good amount of experience closing, but Soriano has a very live arm.  The job is Gonzalez’s until he loses it, but with Soriano’s K-Potential he’s definitely worth a look.  Even if he doesn’t have a closers job, he’s one of few relievers that can contribute to your ERA, WHIP, and K’s while you’re waiting for him to win the gig.  Everything depends on his health, though:  Soriano’s owned in 3.6% of ESPN leagues, and you probably want to key on his BB Rate.  If he’s on, we’re talking 2 or under per 9.  If he’s off…it could balloon well above 4 or 5 walked batters per 9.

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gregg vs. Carlos Marmol.  We all know who the better pitcher is, the question is where the Cubs want their best relief pitcher to pitch. Marmol was ranked ahead of Gregg in almost all of the pre-rankings and was drafted as if he were the closer.  Marmol’s got dirty stuff, and he’ll continue to be among the percent ownership leaders for non-closing relief pitchers. Marmol’s currently sitting at 85 percent ownership, which is only 11 percent less than Kevin Gregg’s 96 percent.

Colorado Rockies

Huston Street and Manny Corpas both have closer experience, and neither one’s a sure thing.  Street had an epic melt-down last year, which lead to his departure from Oakland. Corpas doesn’t quite have the K-potential that Street does, but he does have a Coors friendly ground-ball rate nearing 50% compared to Street’s 40%.

You’ll want to keep an eye on Street’s BB-Rate, as he posted a career high 3.47 BB / 9 in 2008.

With Street’s ownership at 91 percent, and Corpas sitting at 46%, the best value may come from Taylor Bucholz who’s owned in under 1 percent of leagues.  After Bucholz’s career year in 2008, he’s one guy to keep an eye on.

Florida Marlins

Currently Matt Lindstrom (91% Owned) has the closers job, and should have at least a few blown saves in the reservoir before he gets the hook.  Florida’s bullpen is filled with a lot of young, live, arms.

Leo Nunez is one of my “he’s definitely on the roids” guys, as he’s a wiry reliever that magically added 4mph to his fastball, and consistently posts inconsistent statistics.  His K rate has ranged from 4 to 8 batters per 9. ESPN owners are prospecting pretty hard-core on Nunez, as his ownership is at almost 6 percent.

Renyel Pinto (.1%) is a lefty option that tops out at 90mph, but has solid K potential.  Unfortunately, with the K’s come an abundance of walks.

Logan Kensing (.1%) appears to fit the closers role the best, as he’ll hit 95mph on the gun with great K potential.  Like Pinto, Kensing has some serious control issues but a breakthrough could definitely be in the cards.

Oakland Athletics

I talked about Brad Ziegler and the Oakland bullpen here.

St. Louis Cardinals

Simple explanation here, and great prospecting.  Jason Motte ( 87%) has the job until he loses it, and it’ll take more than a couple blown saves for LaRussa to strip the job from Motte.  It’s going to take a lack of control. Motte has shown, and the projection models agree, that he can keep his BB Rate around 3.  With the strike-out ability he possesses, that’s a rosterable control deficiency.

If Motte falters, Ryan Franklin (2.4%) will fill in and probably get himself 5-8 SV until Chris Perez gets his shot. Perez’s ownership declined 9 percent upon his demotion to the minors, and he now sits at 8% ownership.

Seattle Mariners

I didn’t agree with Brandon Morrow’s shift to the rotation, and thankfully it hasn’t happened yet.  Morrow has all the stuff in the world to be a top-rate closer, but whether or not he’ll succeed is up in the air.

Morrow has some serious control issues, and looked AWFUL last night. Morrow walked 3 batters in 2/3rds of an inning, and nothing will get a closer pulled faster than a lack of control.  Managers can stomach walk off home runs, but they tend to have issues with walking the bases full.

Next in line is Mark Lowe, who’s owned in under 1 percent of ESPN leagues. Lowe can bring the fastball almost as hard as Morrow, and his ratios are average enough to warrant consideration.  At Lowe’s ownership, he’s definitely one of the better values.

Chad Cordero who’s currently in the Minors rehabbing is the wild card.  Cordero came into the league as one of the better pitching prospects, and didn’t disappoint.  He’s coming off injury, but if he gets the call — he’ll be ready to go.  The Mariners won’t bring him up if he’s not completely healthy, and Cordero’s time table is looking more and more advanced.

Tampa Bay Rays

Take a look at how last year unfolded, add in Isringhausen, and you’re set.  Wheeler should continue to be a decent source of cheap-as-hell saves, while contributing stellar ERA & WHIP numbers. Wheeler’s already owned in 44 percent of leagues, though.

If you’re just in it for Saves, I guess that Percival is your best bet. Isringhausen’s only owned in 1.5 percent of leagues, and he’s currently on the DL, so if you have a  DL-spot — he’ll probably provide the best bang for your buck; 6 or 7 saves seems reasonable.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Broxton obviously has this job, but Hong-Chih Kuo provides an intriguing buy.  Kuo’s only owned in 9.2% of leagues, and he shouldn’t hurt you while you’re waiting on Broxton to fail.

There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty around Broxton considering he’s essentially a tailor-made closer.

Milwaukee Brewers

I can’t picture Hoffman as a set-up man, and Villeneuva is too valuable to just pitch 1 inning.  Even if Charlie V succeeds, I have trouble believing he’ll stick at the closer spot.

Hoffman’s probably going to fall off the edge at some point this year — I’m unsure at this point if that cliff is a performance or injury barrier; quite possibly it’ll be a combination of both.

In the end, prospecting for closers is something that’s a necessity in a deep league but somewhat goofy in shallow leagues.  If you’re in a head to head league, it makes sense to prospect so long as you can make the playoffs. In roto-leagues, or points-leagues; the risk associated with prospecting for closers often times outweighs the rewards.

ESPN offers their take on the CLOSER DEPTH CHART.

Hanrahan Photo Courtesy of Scott Ablemann

Soriano & Lowe Photo Courtesy of Mark Sobba

Broxton by Photography By Rueben

Greatness on the field doesn’t always translate into greatness in the fantasy baseball world.  Nowhere is it more prevalent than the relief-pitcher slots that you’re league employs.

Obviously, the RP and P slots in your league should contribute to the SV category but whether or not you pay for saves is up for debate.  Like all pitchers, relief pitchers are prone to injuries.  To win your league, you’re going to have to have  to cope with some risk.  Some people draft young kids and sleepers, others spend money on saves.

As with any situation in fantasy baseball that contains a great deal of uncertainty there are a lot of bargains to be had.  Without further adieu, the rankings.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox.

Does this need an explanation? Great Team, Great Stuff, Stiff Hold on the Job, 10+ K per 9, and solid ratios.

2. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins

Five years of ’round about 40 Saves.  Valuing consistency among closers is risky business, as they’re just one injury away.

Nathan will put up an ERA of about 2.00, and a WHIP under 1.00.  He’s getting older, and one of these days his arm is going to abandon him.  He’s probably got about a year and a half left in him.

His strike-out numbers have taken a dip over the past couple years, as he’s went from a 12+ K per 9, to under 10 the last two years.

3. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals

Sonia’s on the other end of the spectrum from Nathan. Here we have a young, dominant pitcher that should improve.  The only problem we have here is the team he plays on, which isn’t as big of a problem as it seems.

Even the worst teams still win games, and the games they win will probably be close enough to result in save opportunities.

Soria’s K numbers should float between 9 and 10 strikeouts per nine, and there’s a decent chance he’ll put up a WHIP at least similar to his 2008, 0.86.

Soria’s command numbers of about 4 strike-outs per walk, and only two and a half walks per nine are some of the best in the business.

4. Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets

62 is a lot of saves, and there’s no way in hell he’ll come close to that number again. K-Rod is a great talent, but 4.5 BB per 9IP isn’t elite. His K per 9 also declined in 2008, falling to a five-year low of 10.14.

Rodriguez is an elite talent, but the drastic increase in WHIP to 1.30 is worrisome.

5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees

I’m not sure what happened in 2007, but Rivera certainly fixed it in 2008 reverting back to the Rivera we all know and love.

Rivera walked less than a batter per nine last year, and continued to strike-out almost ten batters per nine.

The only question here is health.  Maybe grab a back-up plan?

6. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies

The Dirty Dirty has returned.  Lidge lost a click off his fastball and slider, but he started throwing his slider 56% of the time, which is up from a recorded high of 43.7%.

While Lidge’s BB/9 is sitting at an unsightly 4.54, his 11.94 K/9 makes up for it. He brings a 1.20ish WHIP to the table, and pitches for a good team. Watch-out for the post World Series hype, and draft him based on his numbers.

Lidge has a shit-tonne of risk associated with him, as he’s been known to accidentally flip the suck-switch.  Unfortunately, the guaranteed closer pool is pretty shallow this year so Lidge sits here.

7. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs

I <3 the Carlos Marmol, and the Cubbies are looking solid this year.  In reality, Marmol should have snagged the Closers job from Wood last year but instead dominated the late, arguably more important, inning(s).

11.75 K/9 and 4.2BB/9 sound about right.  Marmol could drastically increase his K:BB ratio with the right approach.

Marmol greatly increased his velocity last year, notching his Fastball up about .5 MPH, his slider 1.4mph, and his curveball which he almost never uses anymore 2.7mph.

There’s no reason to believe Marmol is anymore of an injury risk than your standard closer.  I’d imagine he’d have better value than the Kerry Wood of last year, so bid or draft accordingly.

8. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

The future is here, and it’s hefty.  Broxton brings about a 3.00 ERA to the table, with room for improvement. He’s got a sub-1.20 WHIP, a 97MPH fastball, and a 87.7mph slider.

Things look good, and for a fire-baller he keeps his BB/9 at a respectable 3.50.

I always worry when players drastically increase their velocity as it could mean trouble in the long-run. Broxton and Marmol have the possibility of becoming top-5 closers, top-3 closers, top-closers.

9. Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

I’m not a huge Fuentes fan, and I haven’t the slightest clue as to whether or not Save Opportunities are a consistant, or somewhat predictable, statistic.

With that said, Fuentes manned-up and got to almost 12 K/9 while maintaining a 1.10WHIP in Colorado.

The switch from Colorado to Anaheim will help Fuentes more from the perspective of switching leagues rather than from a Park Factor improvement.

Fuentes, like Lidge, has a suck-switch and a couple more than capable replacements. Scott Shields, and Jose Arredondo both have “closer stuff”

10. Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians

He’s an injury risk, a big injury risk, but he also put up one of the better K:BB ratios last year. 11.40 K/9 and 2.44 BB/9 resulted in a 4.67 K/BB.

Wood finally got back some of the velocity he’d misplaced in 2008 registering an average fastball of almost 95mph.

Cleveland looks to be improved this year, and I’ve got them picked to compete with the Tigers in the crazy-tough AL-Central.

11. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox

Bobby Jenks got cash-money over the off-season and for roughly 1.72 seconds he had the highest-first-contract-for-relief-pitcher-guh? until Papelbon got paid.

61 IP and 38 strike-outs = FTW?

Jenks should return to his 8ish K per 9 and float around the 1.20 WHIP area.  If Jenks stays at that miserable 5.5K per 9, he best be keepin his WHIP in the sub-1.10 level.

Approach with caution.

12. Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees

This is supposed to be a “Closers” list, valuing the possibility of attaining saves over a consistant Holds guy.

Joba does neither, so why’s he on this bloody list? Because he’s not a starter, and not a closer.  He’s just a pitcher.  Obviously, one of the gents in the Yankees rotation is going to break-down (cough cough AJ Burnett) and Joba will more than likely be moved into a starters role.

My prediction though, Phil Hughes starts the season as the 5. The value you get from Joba in the ‘pen and Hughes in the rotation is about 8-trillion times more than the reverse.

Joba will more than likely end up in the SP rankings as well, but at this point I’m leaning towards him starting in the bullpen.

13. Jose Valverde, Houston Astros

Valverde is the king of the “good-bad” cycle of awesomeness for a relief pitcher.

’03-2.15 ERA, ’04-4.25 ERA, ’05-2.44 ERA, ’06-5.84 ERA, ’07-2.66 ERA, ’08-3.38 ERA.

Last year wasn’t as awful as we’ve come to expect, and Valverde has the possibility of turning in a top-5 closer season: Saving 40 Games, K’ing 10 per 9, walking under 4 per 9 and posting ’round about 1.20-WHIP.

Valverde and Jenks can, and possibly should, be switched in yours and these rankings.

14. Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates

Good Pitcher. Bad Team. Bad Young Team. There’s a couple quality young relief pitching prospects floating behind Capps in the Pirates Pen.

Capps doesn’t strike out 10 per 9, he strikes-out 6. What makes this incredibly attractive is that he only walks one or two batters per 9 which results in a dirty, dirty K:BB ratio.

There’s no reason to believe that Capps can’t go sub-1.00 WHIP, and the only thing keeping him from being an elite closer is his lack of strike-outs.

He did lose a good mile or two per hour off all of his pitches last year, which means he may have be protecting a somewhat injured armed.

15. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays

Lefty-closer with a massive injury risk who pitches out of a very good bullpen. The possibility of saving 40 games, with around 10 K per 9 is definitely there, but buyer beware. Nice BJ Ryan Article Here.

16. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds

Cordero’s first season as a Red lead to an increased walk rate (4.86 BB/9) and a decreased strike-out rate (9.98 K/9) and a massive WHIP increase (1.41WHIP) which isn’t a good sign.

It’s hard to find 30 Saves though.

17. Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers

An oldy but a goody? He increased his K-rate to a respectable K per Inning after a steady decline from 2003 (11K/9) to 2007 (6.91K/9).

There is a lot of age related risk here, and there’s also the risk of going from an extreme pitchers park to Milwaukee. However, Hoffman’s WHIP hasn’t been above 1.20 since, like, his rookie season of 1993 when he pitched 90 innings.

18. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres

Bell looks to take the spot vacated by Hoffman as San Diego’s closer. Bell will get to about 9K/9 or a K per Inning. His WHIP should float around 1.20, and his ERA around the  low-threes.

At this point, Bell is definitely worth the risk and if you require further reading check out this article, that deals with Bell’s ridiculous drop in horizontal movement on his fastball.

I’m really not a fan of anyone else in the San Diego bullpen for the closers role.  Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot of talent there, but no one has the stuff to excel in the same way that Heath Bell does.

19. Huston Street, Colorado Rockies

Head-ache alert. Street needed out of Oakland in the worst kind of way, after turning on the suck-switch about halfway through the year.

There’s a lot of risk and reward here; although the reward is tempered by Coors field.

Expect somewhere between his ridiculous 2007 numbers, and his lackluster 2008 numbers which comes in at about a K per Inning, 3 BB per 9, and a 3 K:BB ratio.

Which roughly translates into 1.15-1.25 WHIP, 3.25-3.30 ERA, and 25 SV.

20. Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants

He aint pretty he just looks that way: 41 saves?

Wilson’s numbers show how volatile the save market is, but really that 1.40+ WHIP really should clue you into what the hell is going on.

Bill James Prediction Model has Wilson at 46 Saves, and Marcel has him at 20.  It’s a bit of a gap. All of the projection/prediction models have him at about a 1.38 WHIP.

Wilson is worthwhile drafting if you combine him with a stand-out 8th inning guy.

21. Frank Francisco, Texas Rangers

Franky had a solid season last year coming in at 12 K per 9, 3.69BB per 9 and a 1.15 WHIP to go with 5 Saves, and a 3.13 ERA.

The six blown saves shouldn’t concern you, as blown saves are both confusing and annoying when you’re evaluating someone who operated in multiple relief roles.

20-25 Saves, with a 1.30WHP seems about right, no?

22. Joey Devine, Oakland Athletics

Devine is my favourite coming out of the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen as Zeigler just doesn’t have “pure closer” stuff.

Joey Devine had a silly-stupid .59 ERA to go with a .83 WHIP in 45 IP last year.

Typical closer stuff with a 94mph fastball, and a 81mph slider.  Devine, while inexperienced is probably your best bet out of the Oakland ‘pen.

23. Chris Perez, St. Louis Cardinals

Perez is a closer-in-waiting, as he brings the heat at 95+ mph. Whether or not he can transfer that into a full-time gig is up in the air.

He’s got some control issues, and is dropping below 2.00 in the K:BB area, which isn’t a good sign.

Perez has to compete with someone who hucks harder than him, Jason Motte.  I tend to believe that Perez holds onto the job long enough to nab 20 Saves with good strike-out numbers.

24. Matt Lindstrom, Florida Marlins

Lindstrom is a flame-thrower (avg. fastball: 97mph) that is, like all hard-tossers, prone to control issues.

He’s got the best bet to nab the closers role breaking camp. However, if he cant massively improve on his 6.45 K per 9 (FTW?) and 1.45 WHIP, he’ll give that role up pretty gosh darn quick.

25. Mike Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves

If only Gonzalez and Soriano could be combined into an all-star closer, with the capability of throwing 95mph from both hands — the Braves would be back into John Smoltz-closer area.

Gonzalez, a lefty, has some major injury concerns but also strikes out almost 12 per 9, and only walks 3 or 4 per 9. You gotta figure on a WHIP under 1.30, but above 1.20.

Gonzalez, if he stays healthy, will be a steal at this point.

26. Brandon Lyon, Detroit Tigers

Don’t like Brandon Lyon, but he’ll get you round about 20 Saves with mediocre peripherals.

1.35 WHIP, about 5 to 6 K per 9…

Give him 5 more years, and he’ll be Todd Jones v2.0

27. Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks

Qualls seems to have the Diamondbacks gig, as I write this.  However, the ass-end of the Diamondbacks bullpen seems to be pretty solid. Between Qualls, Pena, Rauch, and the possibility of Scherzer or Petit sneaking in there, anyone could steal the job.

When you look back, you realize how good that Astros bullpen was.

Qualls posted a solid 1.07 WHIP, and 8.67 K/9 while floating around 93ish with his fastball.  His fastball also has great movement on it

I tend to think that Pena’s going to finish the season as the closer, as his 95mph stuff screams closer.  The only problem is that Pena’s blistering fastball doesn’t particularly translate into an awesome K-rate (6.5ish)

28. Troy Percival, Tampa Bay Rays

There’s no reason to think that Troy Percival will hold onto the closers role the entire season.  Tampa’s got a great pen, and Percival is getting real old-like.

Assuming 40 Innings, and 20 Saves isn’t out of the question.  Even though Percival is one of the few pitchers born before 1970, he’s still putting up half decent K per 9 numbers.

This could be the year that Percival falls off the cliff, and with Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour,  or even JP Howell takes over the spot.

29. Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles

Chris Ray has all sorts of talent, but managed to hurt-kill his shoulder-arm. He’s the guy who notched 33 saves in 2006, and then improved on his K numbers in 2007 before going down.

George Sherrill just got paid as Baltimore opted to avoid arbitration.  However, Sherrill seems better suited for late relief than the closers role (left-handed closers are lame).

Anyways, I’m banking on 20+ saves from Ray, and 12-15 from Sherrill.  Seem about right?

30. Brad Ziegler, Oakland Athletics

Ziegler is one of the nicer gents in the big leagues.  However, he’s a bit of a ROOGY (right-handed one out guy)

Instead of explaining all of the lovely indicators that point to why Ziegler will come back to earth, I’ll link once again to my favourite website: Fangraphs

31. Joel Hanrahan, Washington Nationals

Hanrahan has got the gig in Washington until further notice, and that’s pretty much all you need to know at this point.

Hanrahan has some serious, serious, control issues. He managed to knock his BB/9 down from almost 7 (phew) to a repsectable? 4.5 BB per 9 last year.

Expect a WHIP around 1.40ish, and a fastball that touches 95-96mph.

However, when a player adds 4-5mph to his stuff maybe you should ask yourself, HOWZ?!

32. Dan Wheeler, Tampa Bay Rays

Wheeler appears next in line behind Percival. Wheelers’ numbers were somewhat goofy last year as his K’s declined, walks increased, yet he threw up a sub-1.00 WHIP.

Wheelers got good stuff, and is waiting in-line until Percival gets hurt. Wheelers got 4 solid pitches (FB, CB, SL, CH) and while he’s bound to come back down to earth as his Batting Average for Balls in Play (BABIP) regresses to the .280 area rather than his 2008 numbers of .202.

Expect Wheeler to put up decent ratios, a half decent amount of K’s, and somewhere between 10 and 15 Saves.

33. George Sherrill, Baltimore Orioles

Here’s Sherrill! It’ll be a dog-fight between Chris Ray and Sherrill. If Sherrill goes and drops a 1.50 WHIP on the world again, you’ll at least be able to ditch him for the next big thing.

Otherwise, you can probably expect a handful of saves (10ish) and a K:BB that’s better than last year’s 1.76 (woops).

Sherrill’s got talent, but I’d prefer a healthy Chris Ray.

34. Tyler Walker, Seattle Mariners

Walker appears to have the job, in….Seattle. Really, how many saves does that mean if he keeps the job the entire year? 22? 25?

I’d like to see Brandon Morrow here, or even Mark Lowe. I’m banking on Lowe lowering his WHIP to at least a sub-1.50 level which he can do by walking less than 5 batters per 9.

Let’s say Walker gets an ugly 15 Saves.

35. Rafael Soriano, Atlanta Braves

I’m sure Seattle would like to have Soriano back at this point, or maybe not. The entire Braves pen has injury issues, or control issues, or both.

Soriano has nasty stuff, and the potential to put up big numbers. In 2007, he showcased what could be with a 95mph fastball.  A strike-out per inning or more, and only 2 to 3 walks per nine, help Soriano have a shot at a 1.00ish WHIP.

Soriano’s been lucky with a .200-something BABIP, but even if that regresses Soriano’s still got a shot at being great. If Soriano can snag the closers job, and stay healthy all year — He’s got a shot at being a top-10 closer.

36. Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers

Zoom-Zoom? Yes, he throws 97-98mph. Injury-Prone? Yes, he loves the guitar hero.

In his first year eligible for salary arbitration, Zumaya inked a monster 735,000 dollar deal for 1 year — FTW?

Zumaya’s got closer stuff, he’s seriously got to work on his command though. The Detroit bullpen’s a mess and the only thing we know for sure is that Lyon, Rodney, and Zumaya will all get a shot to prove their worth at sometime during the 2009 season.

While Rodney’s the safer bet to get to 15 Saves, I’m putting my money on Zoom-Zoom.

37. Chad Cordero, Washington.. Free Agents?

Cordero will be holding auditions for potential suitors at some point during the next week or so

Cordero will raise his stock on the right team, as well as lowering one of the guys on the list above.

There was a time when Cordero was one of the top RP prospects in the entire game.  He’s got the stuff.

There’s a huge risk/reward possibility here.  Great late round flier if you’re doing your draft before the results of the Chad Cordero auditions are released to the public.

38. Jose Arredondo, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Buckets of talent, a good fastball, and a great splitter.  I’d prefer to see Arredondo closing over Scot Shields if it comes down to it.

I’d have to say the 10 wins is probably a fluke.

39. Taylor Bucholz, Colorado Rockies

The Good: Great talent. Former top-prospect. Sub-3.00 BB per 9. Good K numbers. Nice WHIP, Good ERA.

The Bad: Plays at Coors and is currently behind Street on the Depth Chart.

Bucholz makes sense as a late inning / important situation / high leverage spot, and it’d make sense for the Rockies to keep him there rather than push him into the “closers” role.

40. Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins

He’s a tiny little fireballer ( 6’1 – 175lbs) who throws 95mph. He did up his velocity 3mph last year, which smells fishy? If he comes into camp looking like Rod Beck, something is definitely fish.

Nunez has a shot at the closers role, but like everyone in the Florida pen he’s got some control issues and only posted 5K per 9 last year.

41. Justin Masterson, Boston Red Sox

I like Masterson in a relief role more than a starters role at this point, but he’ll eventually move into the rotation.

In a shallow league, there’s no point in drafting relievers that don’t contribute in the SV category but in normal leagues he’s probably worth a spot right after the “sure-fire” closers.

He still walks too many compared to his strike-outs, posting a 1.70 K:BB ratio.  He should fix this with a full year under his belt, and it’s a safe bet to assume at least a 2.50 ratio this year.

42. Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals

I addressed Chris Perez up top, and now onto his main competition for “ridiculously hard throwing risky closer bet of the year” award.

He only pitched 11 Innings in the big leagues last year, and Tony LaRussa is one cautious mofo — the kid can throw 97 though.

43. Fernando Rodney, Detroit Tigers

The third peice of the Detroit Tigers mess of a bullpen.  Might be a cheap way to get 10 saves. Before Joel Zumaya was the closer of the future, Fernando Rodney occupied that spot.

44. Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies

Madson’s got all sorts of dirty in his repetoire.  He’s behind Lidge — that’s his only downfall.

Here’s another reliever that magically added velocity.

Madson is one of the few guys that can remain an 8th inning guy, but will contribute to your squad.

…and Lidge could always turn on the suck-switch again.

45. Manny Corpas, Colorado Rockies

I have Corpas below Bucholz and Street, but he does have past-closer experience.  He could be next in line for the closers role, and there’s the potential for stealing 10 or so SVs with Corpas.

Corpas posted career lows last year, and his numbers across the board began to suck it up.

46. Kevin Gregg, Chicago Cubs

I dont think Marmol will get hurt, nor do I think he’ll suck up the joint.  This doesn’t leave any room for Gregg to contribute in the SV category.

47. Jensen Lewis, Cleveland Indians

Lewis has got solid stuff, but so do most of the guys in the Cleveland Indians bullpen.  Any one of  Lewis, Perez, Kobayashi or Betancourt, could nab saves when Kerry Wood goes down.

Wood’s bound to go down for at least one DL-Stint, so pick your poison for a free 5-8 SVs.

48. Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers

Broxton is far from a proven thing, and Kuo looks pretty good. He’ll bring it at 93mph, which is up from previous highs.

Kuo’s ERA of 2.14, and WHIP of 1.01 are real nice to look at.  Toss in 10K/9 and a great 2.36BB/9 and you’v egot yourself one hell of a sleeper.

Look for Kuo to play a major part of 2009 Save Competition, if Broxton even slips the littlest of little-bits.

49. Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays

Better in the 7th or 8th, and Maddon’s a smart man. Throws hard (94-96) and if he keeps his walk rate low, he could play a serious part in the Rays bullpen when Percival goes down.

Last year’s post-season showcased his propensity to fall apart, and force things.  If he walks people, he’s not worth rostering.

50. David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners

Mariners’ bullpen is awful and Aardsma throws hard enough to earn a shot.

51. Mark Lowe, Seattle Mariners

…ditto

52. J.J. Putz, New York Mets

…ditto.. oh wait, Putz is a Met. Putz went from top-tier closer, to oft-injured scrub.  After paying K-Rod 8-trillionz of dollars, the only way Putz has value is if K-Rod hurts himself.

Strangely enough, it wouldn’t surprise me to see K-Rod fall apart and hurt himself in May allowing Putz to post all-star numbers.  Karma. Sweet Sweet Karma.

53. Brandon Morrow, Seattle Mariners

I like Morrow, sorta-kinda.  He’s here as a reliever, not a starter.  He’s probably going to be a starter, and he’ll be more valuable as a starter in the short term.

In the long term, I tend to think Morrow projects as a pretty devastating closer once the Mariners realize he can’t throw strikes.

54. Tony Pena, Arizona Diamondbacks

Pena has a shot at 10 Saves this year.  He doesn’t strike out as many as you’d assume, considering he’s got a 95mph fastball. He makes up for this by only walking about 2 per 9, and posting a 3ish K:BB ratio.  Goodtimes.

55. Carlos Villanueva, Milwaukee Brewers

Lots of uncertainty here, maybe Villanueva gets a shot. If not, he’ll still put up decent totals in spot-start duty, and may just earn a rotation spot.

56. Ramon Ramirez, Boston Red Sox

If Papelbon is out for any length of time, Ramirez gets the job.  If it’s a short DL-stint Boston has other options.  Ramirez has got stuff: good fastball, slider, change combo.

57. Scott Shields, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Might have a shot at sneaking in saves, lets bank on 6 Saves in 2009.

58. Santiago Casilla, Oakland Athletics

Casilla had a nice little run last year where he was almost unhittable.  He’s solid enough in a foggy A’s bullpen.

59. Eddie Guadardo, Texas Rangers

Could steal the saves job from Franky Francisco — Pray he doesn’t.

60. Damaso Marte, New York Yankees

I guess it could happen?

61. Joe Rauch, Arizona Diamondbacks

Messy, Messy Bullpen.  Not a sexy pick, but could preform.

62. Rafael Perez, Cleveland Indians

At his best, he can be dominant.  If Kerry Wood goes down, it’s going to be a free-for-all.

63. Tyler Yates, Pittsburgh Pirates

Yates has got some talent (95mph fastball) but he walks too damn many (5 BB/9)

64. Kyle Farnsworth, Kansas City Royals

Soria’s got a firm grip on the job even though he’s contract does have a claus whereby it’s starting to look like KC wants to make him a starter.

65. Cla Meredith, San Diego Padres

Not a fireballer, but gets shit did. Next in line behind Heath Bell?

66. Craig Hansen, Pittsburgh Pirates

Part of the Manny / Bay trade.  Nice peice and he’s got a shot if Capps goes down.

67. Jesse Crain, Minnesota Twins

Nathan’s getting old, and Neshek is out for another year.

68. Octavio Dotel, Chicago White Sox

Seriously? Yes, he’s got a rubber-arm.

69. Jared Burton, Cincinnati Reds

I like him behind Cordero. He’s not a safe-bet, but he’s worth a late look.

70. Takashi Saito, Boston Red Sox

He’s the short-term option for Boston.

71. Edwar Ramirez, New York Yankees

…and done.  Rivera could decide to stop pitching.

74. Steven Shell, Washington Nationals

I buy it. Great, Cheap, late round selection with a half-decent shot at getting the closers job.

Okay, that’s it. Enjoy and COMMENT!

Even if your comment is just, “holy shit, ur a fucking retard. I banged your mom” give me a shout to let me know you got to the end.

Photo Courtesy of       Dan Cox   Flickr