Rod Barajas

The Toronto Blue Jays, For The Wins?

Brian Burress and his brand-spankin’ new 12.76 ERA and 2.54 WHIP will not be included in this article.  The main benefactor, Alexei Ramirez and his 5RBI, will also be left out of this discussion.

In case you haven’t figured out by now, the Jays are my home squad and while they’re not my favourite club — I manage to watch at least a few innings of each game.

As always, the small-sample size warning is in effect, but here are your Toronto Blue Jays with some quick analysis and statistics that stand out, at least to me. Read more

Rod Barajas

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining Catchers.

ESPN released their new fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 on Friday, March 13th.  The team at ESPN normally brings solid analysis and a half decent ranking system to the table but they tend to err on the side of caution.

In deep leagues, caution is your friend.  If you screw up in a deepleague, you’re left with Tony Pena Jr. manning a middle infield spot.  In a regular sized league, of up to 16-teams, caution is your enemy.  It makes sense to go out on a limb and grab Aaron Cunningham and hope for the best because if he falters; you can replace him easily enough.

Without further adieu, it’s time to examine their catcher rankings:

POS	OVR	Name	Team	POS	Mixed $	AL/NL $	MOV
1	47	Brian McCann	ATL	C	15	22
McCann sits atop almost all catcher rankings at this point, even though Atlanta seemingly has the worst offense of the bunch.
2	53	Russell Martin	LAD	C	13	21
Martin contributes steals, but at some point they’re going to drastically decline. Value’s still there in a potent LA line-up.
3	69	Geovany Soto	CHC	C	12	21
Soto may be in for a bit of a Sophomore slump. I wouldn’t expect drastic improvement
4	81	Joe Mauer	MIN	C	10	19
Mauer’s my favourite of the bunch, but missing camp will hurt. Drafting Mauer allows you to attain high SB / low AVG guys. You’re really going to have to follow his back pain, because if he starts missing time — he’ll fall below more than just Soto.
5	108	Ryan Doumit	PIT	C	7	17
Doumit has the job, but I doubt he catches all year. If he does catch all year, expect a second half drop-off. The Solid power and average numbers keep him in the top 6.
6	112	Victor Martinez	CLE	C	7	18
Martinez is primed for a bounce-back year as he says he’s healthy. If he’s healthy, he’s got the potential to match McCann category for category. If you can get Martinez between picks 100-110ish you’re golden.
7	131	Mike Napoli	LAA	C	6	16
Napoli appears to be missing a good chunk of spring training, and he may not be ready for the season. Drop him a spot, maybe too. Expect a regression in BA, as well. All the other stats should go up w/ increased playing time
8	150	Chris Iannetta	COL	C	5	14
Iannetta is a beast whose BA may drop him. I like him quite a bit, and expect him to perform in the Ryan Doumit range. Personally, I’d switch him and Napoli up.
9	171	Jorge Posada	NYY	C	3	15
Jorge’s way too high for my liking. He’s injury prone, old, and shouldn’t be getting AB at DH considering the Yankee depth. 120 GP is a stretch. A healthy season in that line-up makes him a top-5 catcher though.  Lots of Risk & Reward here.
10	179	Matt Wieters	BAL	C	2	14
Everything is pointing towards Wieters starting off in the minors, but Zaun can’t hold him off. A mini-slump to start off his Triple-A season wouldn’t surprise me, but he should get the call regardless.
11	184	Bengie Molina	SF	C	2	13
Molina wont repeat his 95 RBI season, and there’s no reason for him to be batting clean-up ever again. 45 Runs and 75 RBIs seem far more likely. He’s still a solid option, as Buster Posey is no threat at this point to his AB. You never know though, especially if Posey keeps smash-killing the ball — just kidding Giants fans, you’re stuck with Molina for another year or two.
12	188	Ramon Hernandez	CIN	C	2	13
Hernandez is the epitome of average, but a switch to the Great American Bandbox may help his numbers. 60 Runs with 75-80RBI is the ceiling, but that .250 AVG is going to hurt.
13	195	Kelly Shoppach	CLE	C	1	13
Shoppach strikes out a lot, but he also punishes the ball. The only question is where’s he going to play. He’ll get his AB when Martinez needs a rest, for sure. But how often will Martinez DH, or play 1B? What you think of Martinez will determine how highly you rank Shoppach. Keep in mind, if Shoppach only gets 350 AB he’s a legit 20HR hitter, and that .250-.260 average doesn’t hurt nearly as much over 350AB.
14	255	Jeff Clement	SEA	C/DH	$-	11
It’s Clements year to shine, but the signing of Griffey Jr. hurt. Clement was penciled in for almost all of the DH at-bats, but now he’ll have to play nice. Clement should still out-perform his value, and at this point it might make sense to take him over Molina, Hernandez AND Shoppach.
15	276	Chris Snyder	ARI	C	$-	9
Snyder’s one of my personal favourites, as his partner in crime: Miguel Montero. How many AB Snyder gets will largely determine his value, but I’d put him somewhere in the 10-12 Dollar range
16	277	A.J. Pierzynski	CHW	C	$-	10
I hate Pierzynski with a passion, but he’s consistent and probably worth more than 10 bucks. Drafting a guy like Pierzynski will allow you to reach on a prospect in the later rounds. 65Runs, 65 RBI and a .275 average make up the sum of this ass-hat’s value.
17	298	John Baker	FLA	C	$-	8
Baker’s moving up everyones list, and I approve. He strikes out a bit too much, but he walks enough to ease my concerns. He certainly won’t duplicate last year’s .375 BABIP, so expect a drop in BA. Closer to .275 than last year’s .299.
18	300	J.R. Towles	HOU	C	$-	8
Everyone’s going to forget about Towles, and while this may be a smidgen high – I like him. Realistically, if you can get Towles around here – you might as well jump. He’s got a bit more upside than a guy like Pierzynski or Snyder, but there’s the potential for another year of suck-age. Grab yourself a back-up plan if you go with Towles. He could easily enter the top-10 catchers by September, though.
19	302	Taylor Teagarden	TEX	C	$-	8
Teagarden vs. Salty…I have Salty higher. Teagarden’s the sexier choice, but I fear that fantasy “experts” are caught in the hype machine. Even if Teagarden wins the job outright, his eye and contact skills still need work.
20	304	Yadier Molina	STL	C	$-	8
Not sure what ESPN was thinking here: .275AVG and 50 of each R and RBI. You can get that elsewhere. Drop him in the rankings.  Nice enough line-up if Schumaker plays 2nd base though. Hrm…
21	342	Dioner Navarro	TAM	C	$-	8
…like right here: Navarro was hit or miss last year, but it’s not ridiculous to expect a .290 AVG, 55 R, 55RBI to go along with at least a few more HR than Molina.
22	343	Kurt Suzuki	OAK	C	$-	8
Suzuki is boring and should be shot. He does however get on base, and should score plenty of Runs for a catcher. He’s fine here-ish. I’m not sure why, but Suzuki is one of the few young guys I see drastically improving upon his skill-set in 2009.
23	349	Jesus Flores	WAS	C	$-	6
Oh Jesus, Flores is solid but I’m not sure what ESPN is drinking at this point. Flores strikes out too much, and has an awful BA. He does however have 15HR pop in his bat. When drafting a guy like Flores as your starter, you best be loading up on the James Loney / Conor Jackson breed of first basemen rather than the Adam LaRoche breed.
24	386	Brandon Inge	DET	C/3B	$-	7
Inge will find a spot to play, but this is too high. Stick Laird here and call it a day.
25	387	Jarrod Saltalamacchia	TEX	C	$-	7
Saltalamacchia really dropped, and I haven’t the slightest clue why. He hasn’t impressed in the Majors but he’s playing arguably the hardest position on the field. I peg break-out year, and Teagarden may steal AB but Salty’s still got top-12 catcher written all over him.
26	388	Miguel Olivo	KC	C/DH	$-	6
Olivo and Buck will be having one of those lovely open competitions. Olivo is solid, and I’d be willing to drop 7 or 8 bucks on him. I think he outproducing guys like Suzuki and Inge, probably Flores too. He has to get the AB though, which shouldn’t be hard considering Buck is one of the few backstops with a worse BA than Olivo.
27	391	Kenji Johjima	SEA	C	$-	6
I see no reason to own Johjima – you’ll have to overpay for his name. ESPN has hit the nail on the head with this one.
28	439	Gerald Laird	DET	C	$-	5
Laird seems to be far too low for my liking. Yes, Detroit will temper his power numbers but he can still rake, and for a 29 year old he still has “upside”. Would you be surprised if Laird hit .275 with 15 Homers? Because I wouldn’t be.
29	440	Rod Barajas	TOR	C	$-	5
We’re onto the guys with starting jobs now… Barajas has power, and Toronto has a half decent line-up when they’re all healthy. The 13-15HR are nice, but the .240 AVG really hurts.
30	442	Jason Varitek	BOS	C	$-	4
…if only leadership were a category in fantasy baseball.
31	444	Josh Bard	BOS	C	$-	4
I’d take Bard over ‘Tek, but neither has value. If your league has 16 teams, and 2 catcher spots there are better options here.
32	476	Nick Hundley	SD	C	$-	2
An option like Nick Hundley, you know he could be a steal and perform at least a 5 dollar value.
33	478	Jason Kendall	MIL	C	$-	2
…yup, he’s worth a buck or two.
34	482	Mike Rivera	MIL	C	$-	2
…uhh, he’s hurt and I’d rather have Salome!
35	484	Chris Coste	PHI	C	$-	2
There’s a log-jam in Philly, and personally I like Paulino the best but Coste may put up the best numbers.  Go with your gut at this point.
36	486	Miguel Montero	ARI	C	$-	1
The difference between Montero and Snyder is marginal in my books. If you think Snyder gets all the AB, these rankings are fine. Personally, I’d move both of these guys closer to the average.
37	487	Ronny Paulino	PHI	C	$-	1
I like his skill-set a lot and would draft him over the previous 4 or 5 guys.
38	489	Carlos Ruiz	PHI	C	$-	1
So many average catchers…Ruiz was getting the AB come play-off time but the other two catchers are both better fantasy catchers.
39	518	Jeff Mathis	LAA	C	$-	2
If Napoli starts the season on the DL, Mathis could be a steal. I’m high on Mathis to begin with, and I expect a very solid year. I expect him to outperform the Miguel Olivo’s of the world.
40	527	Ivan Rodriguez	FA	C	$-	$-
Okay, I understand the point of listing Pudge as the last available catcher but he’ll find a job. Put him somewhere in the mid-to-late teens and call it a day.

Where Have You Gone?

Pablo Sandoval – San Francisco Giants: ESPN left him out due to his lack of playing time at catcher.  Pablo played 11 Games at backstop last year, and he might sneak in a few this year.  Examine your league settings

Humberto Quintero – Houston Astros: If Towles continues to struggle, Quintero should nab the job.  If Quintero nabs the job, expect somewhere between bad and awful.  Jason Castro appears to be the heir apparent, but he’s still at least a year away.

David Ross – Atlanta Braves: He plays behind Brian McCann, but there comes a point where it makes more sense to draft a solid back-up.  I like Ross, and I think he’ll get at least a couple hundred AB this year.

Angel Salome – Milwaukee Brewers: Jason Kendall aint that great, and Salome has shown promise throughout his minor-league career.  It might be asking too much from him to go from Double-A to the show, but after a little seasoning in AAA he might make the mid-season jump.  He’s a talented hitter, and definitely worth a look. His defense is definitely questionable, but if he breaks camp with the team and has catcher eligibility in your league — give ‘er tits.  I’d take a risk on Salome over Kndall, Bard, Varitek — type guys.

Castro & Schnieder – New York Mets: This is a problem, because the Mets have a stellar offense.  I’m not sure where these two fall, but their counting stats should be acceptable assuming one manages to get a 75% share of the AB.

Greg Zaun – Baltimore Orioles: While I’m a firm believer in the “Greg Zaun is the worst human being alive” school of thought, there’s no ignoring Zaun’s talent for sticking around on big league rosters.  Zaun’s managed to have himself a solid spring, and could be a very useful fill in for those waiting on a “catcher of the future”, like Teagarden or Wieters.

Henry Blanco – San Diego Padres: Nick Hundley is having a stellar spring training, but Blanco is still a solid option.  I had the pleasure of watching Blanco, and his overly greased mullet, propel Team Venezeuala past the USA in Round 1 of the World Baseball Classic. San Diego has an awful ballpark for hitters, but Blanco is still a half-decent option in deeper leagues.

The Mess That Is The Twins: Mike Redmond is not the answer, and depending on how long Joe Mauer is expected to be out,  it’s either an open competition or free agent time.  Rodriguez has been playing well in the WBC, but I’m sure he’s out of Minnesota’s price range.  Avoid this mess.

Final Take:

Joe Mauer’s a mess, but his time-table is up in the air.  Either avoid, or follow carefully. Very carefully.

Jeff Mathis could provide early season help.

Teagarden isn’t king yet, don’t sleep on Salty.

J.R. Towles is having major issues AGAIN, in spring training.

Clement should be a steal.

The fall-off from switching leagues should be negated by a friendlier ballpark when dealing with Ramon Hernandez.

Jorge Posada is old, real old — Approach with Caution.  Whoever catches for the Yankees will score a lot of runs, and drive in just as many.  Molina and Cervelli become viable options.

Ryan Doumit can’t catch a whole season, but he shouldn’t have too much trouble getting AB in the outfield.