The Indians imploded, with Kerry Wood giving up five runs and a couple walks in 0.1 Innings of work.  It’s only been 3 IP and Wood’s walked 5 batters but the velocity is better than it’s been in a couple years:  95.6 mph on the FB.  The movement on his pitches according to pFX is also very similar to previous years.  Either way, batters have made contact with exactly 91% of pitches that they’ve swung at.  Worse still, Wood’s Z-Contact sits at  …100%.  With Kerry Wood, I wouldn’t worry unless he proves the BBs are here to stay.

Asdrubal Cabrera had surgery and will be out 8-10 weeks.  Grady Sizemore bruised his left knee and hit the DL too.  Trevor Crowe, replacing Sizemore,  hit leadoff and stole a base.  The stolen base potential is there for Crowe, having topped 20 SB in most of the previous years.

Alcides Escobar had 3 hits to raise his BA to .248.  Escobar’s BABIP is .274 after routinely posting .3-something during his career. So long as Escobar sits atop that line-up and hits line-drives 20% of the time, he’ll have value going forward.

With his 9th steal of the season, Ryan Braun‘s on track to steal about 35 on the year — Jesus.  He should top last year’s 20 but hoping for anything past 25 is pushing your luck.

Octavio Dotel recorded his 9th save of the year; his ERA now sits at 6.23 after that scoreless outing.

I thought about benching Wade Davis against the Yankees — they pegged him for 4 ER in 6IP to open the season — but decided against it and was rewarded with better than expected results: A W, 5.2IP, 2ER, 7K.  Davis is still getting pretty lucky with BABIP (.258) and LOB% (85%;) so expect a bit more regression in the future.  Davis has to bring his BB-Rate of 4.73-per-9 if he’s going to succeed.

A.J. Burnett exploded again: 4BB, 9H = 6 ER in 6.2 IP.  That’s 16 ER in the last 3 starts and his ERA is still only at 3.86.  Well, at least it’s Tampa, Boston and Minny.

Robbie Cano had yet another 4 hits last night.  Cano’s sitting at .340 on the year and leads the AL.

The Gorgonzola pitched another good game for the Cubs ( 6.2IP, 0ER, 3H, 2BB, 5K)

Other than Starlin Castro, the Cubbies offense was pretty bland against Jamie Moyer (7IP, 4H, 2ER, 7K, 1BB).  Castro’s impressed me thus far: He’s walking more than he’s striking out, hitting a decent amount of LDs, and making solid contact.  It’s only 49 plate appearances, but I thought the Cubs were destined to ruin this heralded prospect.

Angel Pagan hit an inside the park home-run and still has arguably the best use of poetic juxtaposition in a name ever.

Drew Storen came in with a man on second and got Livan Hernandez out of a jam. In 55.2 IP, Livan Hernandez has stranded 97.5% of base runners and *held* opponents to a BABIP of .193.  Is there anything you can do aside from chuckle?

Daniel Bard got his first save of the year after finishing up a gem by Clay Buchholz.   It seems like the fantasy community was one, maybe even two, full years ahead when it came to predicting Buchholz and Hughes dominance.  Clay Buchholz may still have a 1.43 WHIP but a .305 BABIP and 69% strand-rate show that there’s room for improvement.  Walks are still a problem but Buchholz only walked a single Twin while striking out 7 in last night’s 8-inning gem.  The line would’ve been better if Bard hadn’t allowed Denard Span to score on a Joe Mauer ground-out.

David Ortiz homered again:  that’s 2 in the last 3 games and 4 HR in the last 6 games.  More importantly, that’s 3 straight games without a strike-out for David Ortiz.

Jason Heyward got his OBP back over .400 after it temporarily dropped to — gasp! — .399 on Tuesday.  Two doubles and a triple mean that more homers are on the horizon.

Scott Rolen’s always an injury risk but boy has he been on a tear over the last 5 games.  Rolen’s raised his average 30pts, slugging percentage 70pts, and OPS a whole 85pts.

Houston scored 7 RUNS! Carlos Lee has homers in the last two games and three homers in the last 4 games.  That’s 3/5ths of his homer total in the last 4 games.

After a sub-par 2009, Jeremy Guthrie is back to being Jeremy Guthrie after hurling 6 Innings of 7-hit ball while allowing only a single earned run.  Guthrie struck out three Rangers before the bullpen blew it.  I won’t begin to even try and understand how Guthrie posted  3.70 and 3.63 ERAs in 2007 and 2008, respectively.  Guthrie’s back on pace to do it again in 2010, though.  A major decline in GB:FB ratio caused Guthrie problems last year and he’s went about fixing it in 2010.  Guthrie’s a guy who should float around a 4.40 ERA but he’s outpitched his indicators twice before, so I’m buying.  The O-Swing percentage is back to 2007-2008 levels and the rest of the plate discipline stats sit somewhere between 2007 and 2009.

As for the Rangers, not much has changed.  Josh Hamilton hit a homer and joined Kinsler, Guerrero and Cruz with an RBI each.  Justin Smoak is hitting .174 and killing me in my keeper league.

Joe Saunders and John Danks pitched a pretty decent game.  Danks struck out 8 but Saunders got the W. John Danks almost has his K:BB up to 3 and has pitched just as well as his 2.26 ERA would indicate (3.09 FIP, 2.56 tERA).  Based on Plate Discipline Statistics, we’re looking at 2008 John Danks (3.32 ERA -3.44 FIP) rather than 2009 Danks (3.77 ERA – 4.59 FIP)

Dan Uggla went deep again (11HR) and is posting the highest OBP (.380) of his career.  Uggla, of course, struck out again which has him pretty much on last year’s pace (26%) with a 24% K-Rate.  There are some underlying issues with Uggla though:  a drastic decrease in LD-Rate (10.5% in 2010) and an unsustainable 22.5 HR/FB ratio.  Uggla’s currently hitting a career high 46.5% (up 10% from last year) of his fair-contacts for grounders, too.

Jaime Garcia threw five innings of five hit ball without allowing an earned run.  Garcia continues to strike out batters (6 last night) but the walks are still a bit of an issue (4 last night).  Obviously Garcia isn’t a 1.28 ERA / 1.14 WHIP pitcher, but he should prove himself to be rosterable for the majority of the year.  Just how many innings Garcia can hold it together for isn’t quite clear yet — Assuming anything more than 130IP seems like a stretch at this point.

Anibal Sanchez outpitched Garcia last night — 7IP, 4H, 8K, 2BB.  On the season, Sanchez has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.  Sanchez has seemingly been around forever and his Major League BB-Rate is finally coming close to his minors numbers.  When Sanchez isn’t walking 5 batters per nine, he can be pretty effective.

The Diamondbacks stomped the Giants, 13-1.  Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson, and Stephen Drew each had a DINGER:  Adam LaRoche had two!

Ian Kennedy kept up his hot start, pitching 8 innings and striking out 9.  Kennedy’s getting lucky with a .252 BABIP and 82.4% LOB but his K:BB of 3.06 is very promising.  Kennedy’s pounding the zone early with a 65% First Strike Rate.  The 3.24 ERA isn’t sustainable but solid K-numbers from a high-threes, low-fours, ERA guy isn’t all that bad.

Austin Jackson had 2 more hits and his BABIP is .458 almost three weeks into May.

Justin Verlander pitched a 1-run complete game and he’s still amongst the top in the AL. The strike-outs are down and the walks are up but there’s still plenty of time for correction: Just take note and remember his BABIP should be around .300, not .264.

Doug Fister got himself into and then out of trouble against the Blue Jays.  It just looked like he lost control for a handful of ABs.

Kevin Gregg got his 12th save of the year.  A BB-Rate in the twos helps take the sting out of the fact that Kevin GREGG!!! is our fucking closer.  Hitters are pounding the ball into the ground at a 50%-clip against Gregg.  Kevin Gregg the man, the myth, the legend, seriously is striking out 4.40 batters per walk.

One thing that’s stuck out is Kevin Gregg’s fastball. Gregg’s still throwing hard on the four-seamer but the pFX and velocity charts lead me to believe that he’s either amped up his slider or has started throwing the damn cutter that the Blue Jays love so much. Check out the Slider Graph and the Game Charts and you tell me.

Headley and Gonzalez went yard but the biggest surprise for me was Ramon Ortiz.  Yah, I didn’t know Little Pedro was still pitching.

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In the first three games at New Yankee Stadium, the visiting Cleveland Indians have scored, gulp, 37 runs.  The Yankees have managed a respectable,  but not spectacular, 12 Runs.

So what’s this mean?

It means buy, buy, buy them damn Yankees.  Leave the Indians to someone else, while Asdrubal Cabrera is one of my favourite sleepers, let someone else overpay.

As long as the owner of Mark Teixeira or Robbie Cano isn’t a Yankee-homer, or someone who wears their hat backwards, go ahead and pay full market value.  As a general rule, if someone’s douchey enough to wear their hat backwards, they’re generally a Yankees fan. I would say something like 80 percent of people that wear a Yankee hat outside of New York, probably beat their spouse and/or children.  Statistics, people! They MATTER! Not just in baseball either, In Everyday LIFE too!

New Yankee Stadium has the exact same dimensions as the old one across the street.  The fences haven’t been moved, or the stadium tilted off axis.  Same damn ballpark, yet the short porch in right appears to be getting shorter by the second.  The Yankees left handed hitters should have no problem reaching this target, and the righties love to go opposite field.

Ken Rosenthal wrote a piece for Fox, detailing the crazy rate at which balls are leaving the park:

The dimensions of the new Yankee Stadium are the same as the old. The short right-field porch is no more or less inviting. But for whatever reason, balls seem to carry better to right than they did across the street…

“The ball gets legs. It climbs,” says one scout who is attending the opening series. “It’s not so much that it’s getting out of there quickly. It’s just staying up there.”

And once the old stadium is knocked down, sometime this summer, the new stadium could play even smaller.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told the MLB on FOX broadcasters before Saturday’s game that the demolition of the old stadium will allow the wind from the Harlem River to blow directly into the new one, perhaps creating a jet stream to left-center field to match the one in right and right-center.

So the Yankees are sucking pretty hard, but do you really think they’ll continue getting their asses beat like this for the next 5 months?  Didn’t think so…

Teixeira, Cano and Swisher will more than likely benefit the most from the craziness that’s ensued.  I liked Teixeira a lot more than most people going into this season because of the short rightfield porch.  I didn’t know it would play THIS small though…

Of course this is a tiny little sample size of 3 games.  Dave Cameron over at the USSMariner.com has also pointed out that HR are up across the board, and they’re actually flying further.

If you want to win your league though, you can’t always rely on proven statistics — they take too damn long.  Sometimes you have to go out on a limb, with a gut-feeling.  In the end, it could just be called an over-reaction, but at this point I’m calling it a hunch.

Adversely, I’m not sure where this puts the Yankees right handed starting pitchers.  I’ve never been a fan of Burnett, and Chamberlain was probably a bit overrated coming in anyways — I wouldn’t acquire them, but if I already drafted them I wouldn’t take anything less than fair-market value.  I’m not selling them off for 90 cents on the dollar, I might think about 95 though — at that point however, it’s just a matter of personal taste.

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C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Ian Kinsler – TEX Rangers – 26 – Edges out Pedroia’s career year of 2008.  Kinsler has to avoid injury, but other than that he’s a great power-speed combo. I’d like to see Kinsler show *it* for another year before giving him this spot, but I’m just not that high on Pedroia’s skill-set.

2. Dustin Pedroia – BOS Red Sox – 25 – Not the most talented guy, but he’s got a solid average and is in a great line-up.

3. Chase Utley – PHI Phillies – 30 - Utley starts the year out on the DL, and he’s starting to get old for a MI.  You should expect 3 or 4 more years of great power numbers.

4. Brandon Phillips – CIN Reds – 27 – Great Power / Speed combo, and so long as the Reds are mediocre, he’ll continue to swipe bags well into his early-to-mid thirties.  Great ballpark, and a maturing Bruce / Votto combo should start driving him in.

5. Alexei Ramirez – CHI White Sox – 27 - I couldn’t be more on the fence about Ramirez.  He ranks lower as a shortstop than a second basemen.  I tend to think that the Ramirez SS experience doesn’t last more than a year or so.  Ramirez reminds everyone of Alfonso Soriano, as he’ll swing at damn near anything.  If pitchers figure him out, he’ll be in trouble.

6. Dan Uggla – FLA Marlins – 29 - A Whole lotta power that’ll stick around for at least another 4 or 5 years. I dont know how many 100 R / 100 RBI seasons he’s got left in him though.

7. Howie Kendrick – LA Angels – 25 - Should eventually become a hitting machine. He’s a unique talent that just can’t stay healthy.  The Angels are a solid franchise, and although they’re aging — they’ll reload, allowing Kendrick to score boat-loads of runs.

8. Robbie Cano – NY Yankees – 26 - Cano should return to his .300+ ways, in which case he’ll be moved up a spot or two.  Wherever he hits, he’ll score ‘em and knock ‘em in. I’d like to see a couple months of the old Cano before I get too excited.

9. Kelly Johnson – ATL Braves – 27 - Should continue to develop as he matures.  Solid Braves line-up, and some power potential in there.

10. Jose Lopez – SEA Mariners – 25 – Young and talented, but I’m worried about him repeating his stellar 2008 season though.  Who knows how awful that Mariners line-up will be in 2009, let alone when Ichiro departs.

11. Brian Roberts – BAL Orioles – 31 - I’m not sure how much speed Roberts has left in those legs.  He’ll probably have a couple 30+ SB seasons left in ‘em, and the O’s line-up is improved enough to knock him in.  When he falls off though, he’s going to fall off hard and fast.  Roberts is one of the nicer guys in the big leagues, which is strange considering he was all up in that Mitchell Report.

12. Rickie Weeks – MIL Brewers – 26 - He’s got a year, maybe two, to put it all together.  Even if he doesn’t put it together, he’ll contribute steals and runs without hurting you *too* much.

13. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 - Injuries starting to catch up to him, and who knows how long he’ll keep his second base eligibility. It’ll be nice to see what Figgins can do with a return to full health.  He’s been used sparingly, so he’s probably got a few more years left in those legs.

14. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Power potential + Plays in Coors.  That’s pretty much all you need to know.  He may fit better at 3rd, or in the outfield.  Lots of potential here though.

15. Matt Antonelli – SD Padres – 23 – First of the big-name prospects, Antonelli has had a rollercoaster ride in the Minors.  He still projects to be damn good though. Unfortunately, he plays in San Diego.

16. Alexi Casilla – MIN Twins – 24 – I like Alexi more than most, and he’ll bring a solid BA and SB numbers to the table.

17. Aaron Hill – TOR Blue Jays – 27 - If Aaron Hill picks up where he left off, he’ll mature into a second basemen with low-20′s HR power.  Post Concussion really sidetracked him, and who knows if he’ll ever be the same.

18. Mike Aviles – KC Royals – 28 – KC will be improved, but you’re drafting Aviles average which isn’t the safest bet.  Remember how Sanchez followed up his .330 BA season?  Always be hesitant drafting late bloomers.

19. Felipe Lopez – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Yah Yah Yah – I’m big on Lopez, You get it.

20. Eric Young Jr. – COL Rockies – 23 - Young’s stock has been more volatile than the DOW.  With an amazing Arizona Fall League, and Spring Training — Young’s back.  With Colorado’s outfield crowded with top-tier prospects, he may stick at 2nd.  He’s back in the minors for the time being though. When he gets the call, he’ll at least contribute to SB to start.

21. Absdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians – 23 - He may take a while to mature, and you’re going to need patience.  He could show flashes as soon as this year. He’s a solid sleeper this year, and a great buy-low keeper option.

22. Chris Getz – CHI White Sox – 25 – If he was guarenteed the job, he’d be higher.  Dustin Pedroia brought scrappy, unathletic, slow, short, white-dude back in style and Getz should cash in.  All Getz has to do is fight off Nix and Lillibridge.

23. Aki Iwamura – TB Rays – 30 - He’ll score 100 runs for the next couple years.

24. Alberto Callaspo – KC Royals – 25 - I thought the D-Backs would hold onto Callaspo; alas he’s part of the KC mess at 2b.  He might project as a better UTIL player than an everyday player but there’s upside in there, somewhere.

25. Mark DeRosa – CLE Indians – 34 - A solid bet for a year or two of solid production.  Not 2008-type production, but production.

26. Anderson Hernandez – WAS Nationals – 26 – I’m not sure how this mess turns out, but it’ll have minimum value for the next couple years unless Hernandez rises to the top of the newly potent Nats line-up.

27. Eric Patterson – OAK Athletics – 25 - Probably projects as an outfielder, but the A’s were wise to nab him from the Cubs. Patterson was recently optioned, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the call as soon as this year.

28. Orlando Hudson – LA Dodgers – 31 – He’s in a solid line-up, and he’ll contribute for maybe a year and a half.  Realistically, Hudson could go anywhere from 23rd to 30th.

29. Kaz Matsui – HOU Astros – 33 - No more anal fissures.  He’ll hit for a decent average, score runs and steal bases.  Nice filler while you wait on the next big thing.

30. Emmanuel Burriss – SF Giants – 24 - Lots of Speed, but’ll probably have to battle tooth and nail for the 2B job.  We’ll see soon enough… Bruce Bochy announces the winner tomorrow, I believe.

31. Placido Polanco – DET Tigers – 33 - Detroit’s got a solid line-up, and I think Polanco has another year and a bit left in it.  He’ll hit for a good average and score runs. Second Base gets old in a hurry.

32. Freddy Sanchez – PIT Pirates – 31 - Paying for batting average is the last thing I’d do.  If the LaRoche brothers somehow transform into the steroid era bash brothers, then maybe Sanchez will have long-term value.

33. Mike Fontenot – CHI Cubs – 28 - Fontenot or Miles, they’ll probably split the job until a Free Agent comes in.  Both of their values are thrown in the trash because of the time-share.

34. Blake DeWitt – LA Dodgers – 23 - I’m assuming he’ll eventually come in at third-base, rather than second. Should be an above average UTIL guy, with a season of two worth of starter’s production.

35. Jerry Hairston Jr. – CIN Reds – 32 - Cheapo steals and average this year.

36. Luis Valbuena – CLE Indians – 24 - Keep an eye out.

37. Clint Barmes – COL Rockies – 30 - Boring.

38. Mark Ellis – OAK Athletics – 31 - Ditto.

39. Willy Aybar – TAM Rays – 26 – There’s actually some value in Aybar’s versatility, but he’s not a keeper.

40. Kevin Frandsen – SF Giants – 26 - I don’t think he keeps the job for more than a year, or a month, or a month, or a week.

41. Travis Denker – SD Padres – 23 - Antonelli has it, but keep an eye out.

Skip Schumaker – STL Cardinals – 29 - Skip’s been working out at second base all spring and if he lands the job, which he should, he’ll be able to contribute.  I wouldn’t feel bad about putting him in the Mid-to-High Teens.

Mark Teahan – KC Royals – 27 - There’s no way he sticks at 2B.  He’s athletic as hell, and has a good arm — but he’ll need some serious seasoning to pick the position up.  If he does, he has above average power and is in an improving Royals line-up.  Low-20s.

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Here’s the problem: ESPN released new rankings, and has people floating around all over the field but failed to mention the two guys that seem like a lock at second base.

Skip Schumaker – St. Louis Cardinals: Skip is a dirty dirty man, and has faired very well at second base.  While he only hit 8 HR, he went for 87R and 8 SB while batting above .300.  Right now, he looks like a glamorized Aki Iwamura, but just wait — he’ll be a top-10 2nd basemen.

Mark Teahan – Kansas City Royals: Teahan looked half-decent at the WBC playing third, and he’s got a great arm.  However, playing second base for the Royals has been a chore.  He keeps committing errors, and Collaspo is a fine replacement.  In a perfect fantasy world, Teahan would get enough bats at 2nd Base to gain eligibility and then return to the outfield.  His bat makes him roster-able as a second basemen, but not particularly an outfielder.

Matt Antonelli – San Diego Padres: Antonelli slept through the majority of the 2008 season, waking up occasionally to strike out.  However, this is still the uber-prospect who made 2007 his bitch.  Maybe he makes the big club out of camp, but he’ll probably spend some time down in the minors now that the Padres got the super-talented David Eckstein.  I’d still rather have Antonelli over the Joe Inglett’s of the world.

The Phillies Situation – Marcus Giles, WHAT? and Eric Bruntlett: Bruntlett is penciled in at every conceivable spot on the Phillies depth chart.  If Utley misses serious time, one of these two gents could actually have some value.  Marcus Giles? Yah, he’s in camp.  He used to be very good too, so if you’re in a deep deep league — take a flyer, maybe.

German Duran – Texas Rangers: There’s some upside here, but he only gets a shot if Kinsler hurts himself, which is guarenteed.  25 Games, it is.  If Kinsler ever goes down permenantly, Duran should be nabbed up in deeper leagues.

Eric Young Jr. – Colorado Rockies: He killed Arizona fall league pitching, and has been taking some practice at second base — maybe worth a shot.  If he gets a job in the outfield or at second, he’ll steal some.

Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox: As of today, Tuesday March 17th, Gordon Beckham is listed atop the White Sox depth chart at second base.  AWESOME.  Beckham was drafted last year, 8th overall and is just a wee lil child.  Anyways, if he starts he’s good enough, as raw as he is, to ball out.  It’ll be a roller-coaster ride though.  White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen seems to think that Beckham shouldn’t be used as a UTIL man under any circumstances — which is stellar for Beckham’s development and his keeper league prospects.

Angel Berroa – New York Yankees: Here’s the deal, Cano had an MRI yesterday and it revealed bursitis of the shoulder.  This is not good, and there’s a good chance it’ll flare up again throughout the season.  Those little bursae sacs are bastards, and if Cano can’t go or Jeter gets hurt, Berroa steps in.  In that Yankee line-up, anyone can be successful.

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