Here’s a quickie for those of you that read this regularly or have the RSS feed.

Jerry Sands has been called up tonight. This doesn’t look great for James Loney (who’s been struggling mightily) or Xavier Paul who was optioned.

Sands looks like he could hit 30HR in his sleep. He’s one of those guys big ol’ country boys from North Carolina. I don’t know if NC is a big producer of country boys, but whatever.

Anyways, I will not make a prediction on Sands, but he’s big and powerful, with a bit of a goofy swing. He’s definitely worth the risk in NL-only leagues and maybe even deep mixed.

Sands will be in the line-up tonight and hitting 7th. He absolutely tore it up in ABQ this year.

Sickels nailed his prospect of the day today.

A year ago, Jerry Sands was a fairly anonymous prospect,  a former 25^thround pick just making his way through A-ball.  All of that changed with an excellent 2010 season that saw him hit 35 homers between Low-A and Double-A, culminating with a strong ’11 spring training and a terrific start this year for Triple-A Albuquerque (.400/.422/.875 with five homers in 10 games). A college star for Division II Catawba, Sands didn’t have the kind of athletic tools that interest scouts and earned just a $5,000 bonus entering pro ball in 2008.

He broke out with a .333/.432/.646 mark in the first half for Low-A Great Lakes in ’10, then continued hitting for power after moving up to Chattanooga with a .270/.360/.529 mark, hitting 28 doubles and 35 homers overall. Refinements to his swing give him power to all fields, and he has enough bat control and plate discipline to hit for a decent average and draw some walks. He’s not especially fast but can pick up a steal if the defense ignores him. Though  he may fit best at first base in the long run, he’s not terrible in the outfield and can certainly hit enough to stick at a corner. He’s also seen a few innings at third base. His makeup and work ethic are highly-praised.

Sands is ready for the majors now and is the obvious choice to promote when the Dodgers need an outfielder. He rated as a Grade B prospect pre-season, ranked Number 39 on the Top 50 hitters list in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book.

 

Desmond Jennings probably figured he’d secure himself an opening day gig in Tampa this year, at least until he realized that he played for the Tampa Bay Delay-Free Agencies. Even with Johnny Damon’s injury appearing to be quite minor, Jennings should get the call sooner rather than later. Down on the farm, Jennings homered yesterday and has extended his hitting streak to eight games. Jennings is now hitting .345 with an OPS north of 1.000. Jennings is claiming that his achy shoulder is now fully healed and last year is behind him.

Lonnie Chisenhall was invited to spring training this year where he went 13-for-26 with a couple of bombs. However, so far in AAA, Chisenhall has started slowly. He’s got a slash line of .211/.311/.421 with a homer and 7 strikeouts. You can probably expect the Indians to treat Chisenhall the same way they treated Carlos Santana last year. By waiting until June — Santana got the call on June 11th — they’ll delay his tick-tock-clock and get four years of arbitration rather than three.

Kipnis is down on the farm as well, but with the way the Indians middle-infield is raking, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him down there until September.

Everyone in the Yankees organization is hurt: Gary Sanchez, Dellin Betances, and Manny Banuelos are all dinged up and placed on the DL. Jesus Montero is absolutely raking, but until they find a spot for him or *really, really, really* need pitching and trade him, he’ll probably continue dominating in Triple-A rather than the show.

Brett Lawrie is killing it in Vegas: .442/.500/.674. Vegas is one of the best hitters parks in the best hitters leagues out there, but Lawrie’s legit. Jason Nix has third to himself while Edwin Encarnacion’s on bereavement leave. Lots of talk up in Toronto about Lawrie and if the Jays plan on playing Lawrie from start to finish next year, they don’t harm themselves financially by calling up Lawrie in the next month.

I’ll be the absolute first to say that something about Adrian Cardenas is just off. The once hyped prospect has fallen off the map, but everything about him screams late-bloomer. In 8 AAA games, Cardenas is hitting .448/.500/.586 and doing pretty a’ight. I’m not touting the guy, but…. something about his path to the big leagues (Pennington, Ellis, and Andy LaRoche) makes for an interesting gamble.

I don’t know what got into the Mets last year. They promoted Jenrry Mejia, and Ruben Tejada way too early. Now, they’re going for Dillon Gee instead of players like Matt Harvey and Jenrry Mejia. Gee’s a bit of control junkie, but in AAA last year, he flashed unusual K-rates. He struck out 9.2-per-9, but only 4ish in his 33IP for the Mets. Definitely a deep league, NL-ONLY, type gamble.

And then there’s Kyle Gibson and Mark Rogers. The Brewers may give Mark Rogers a go, but his upside is limited. Kyle Gibson is definitely the Francisco Liriano fall-back plan.  In two AAA-Rochester starts, Gibson‘s posted an ERA above 5, but his BABIP has been through the roof. He’s still striking out batters and is getting pretty close to major-league ready.

Jordan Lyles is still just 20, but seems comfortable enough in AAA. The Astros put together some decent players and if Myers gets traded to the Yanks or Sox, they could get some time. No reason to rush any of their arms, though.

Matt Dominguez can rake, but will be on the shelf for a bit.  Less than thought, tough: “Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria said Saturday that most recent tests suggest that Marlins third base prospect Matt Dominguez will miss only 4-6 weeks.”

Oakland needs power, Oakland always needs power. Chris Carter is busy being Chris Carter at AAA: .167/.354/.306. He hasn’t quite showcased his pop, but he’s legit.

Ackley’s gotten off to a bit of a slow start at AAA, but it’s only a matter of time.

Devin Mesoraco continues to rake: 3HR 1.192 OPS

Yonder Alonso not so much, but he’ll see time eventually. He’s got a .443 OPS so far in AAA.

Mike Moustakas has gotten out to a slow start at AAA-Omaha. .522 OPS.

#FREEDEEGORDON! 5SB at AAA-ABQ.

As I mentioned here, I had some issues with a fantasy auction. At this point, I have to ask myself whether or not I should target some Super-2 call-ups straight out of the gate. I remember back in the day when a player came up to the big leagues and a bidding war ensued, but that will no longer be the case. Over the past couple of years, Yahoo’s really began stacking it’s pool with prospects.

Guys like Dustin Ackley, Jason Kipnis and Mike Moustakas were all available on draft day. Moose and Ackley are both better options than the current roster fillers, but that’s hardly the point. The point is that leagues now feature Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, Randall Delgado, Michael Trout and Bryce Harper. Before, if any of these guys were called up an absolute frenzy would occur but now, people just add them sometime in May and wait it out. Personally, I don’t think any of those guys will see playing time this year, but there are a handful of prospects with a decent shot at a late-May/early-June call-up.

Here’s some AL-Only prospect action for you…

1. Zach Britton — Orioles’ Lefty – In terms of stuff, Britton’s a great pitcher. In terms of fantasy, Britton’s a good but not great option. He’s got that Trevor Cahill feel to him. He’ll prove to be a useful option, but it’ll be a volatile ride.

2. Mike Montgomery — Royals’ Lefty — Montgomery has the stuff, impressed in spring training, but still hasn’t pitched above AA. Montgomery has everything working in his favor to become a 2011-phenom: The Royals have an iffy rotation, he’s young, he throws hard, and he played very well in ST. Jeff Francis is no lock to remain healthy, Bruce Chen is already 33, and Vin Mazzaro is iffy at best. Next in line is O’Sullivan and he brings a whole lot of ‘meh’ to the equation. I’ve been staring at Montgomery’s name for a while and with a couple breaks, the Montgomery hype-train could leave the station shortly.

3.  Kyle Gibson — Twins Fast Mover — The Twins have a gem on their hands and their rotation is….mediocre. Kevin Slowey definitely has first dibs on the rotation spot but Gibson could see a couple starts after going from High-A to AAA in his first professional season.

4. Chris Archer and Matthew Moore — Rays’ Pitching Harem – I can’t see a world in which either of these two get the call, but both are insanely talented. Moore’s probably got more talent, but Archer’s more advanced. Both need to get that whole control thing down….

5. Charlie Furbush — Tigers Big Lefty — He’ll be a smidgen behind Rusty Kuntz in my all-time favorite names and he moved up three levels last year, but he’s not quite the jaw-dropping talent that you’d nab. He should nab himself plenty of starts this year, but I’m  not sure if I’m ready to pick up what he’s puttin’ down.

6. Jacob Turner — Tigers’ Righty — He’s not coming up, but he is in the player pool. He’s got all sorts of stuff and good control, but he’s still just a pup.

7. Tyler Chatwood – Angels – Chatwood’s stuff is better than the results thus far, but needs some serious refinement. Kazmir’s position at the end of that rotation is going to be in jeopardy all year.

John Lamb and Manny Banuelos are both high on talent but short on experience.

Andrew Brackman might see some time, but being on the Yankees means that they’ll replace him by the deadline.

Aaron Crow’s already in the bigs as a reliever, but I’m not sure what the Royals plan on doing with him. Seems like it’d be a waste of talent to let him sit in that role. Same goes for Jeremy Jeffress. Both are intriguing as hell…

Martin Perez may have the highest upside of the bunch…

BDPP83, Reymond Fuentes of the Boston Red Sox, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: It’s About Value…

Projected Value: High+

Finally, we’ve got some sex appeal in our autograph checklist.  Fuentes is Carlos Beltran’s nephew, or cousin, or something — Only God knows because the internet’s called him about eight different variations of “relative”.

First off Fuentes was drafted by the Red Sox out of Peurto Rico.  The team affiliation is enough to drive the price up, but we’ll have to see where this opens.

Fuentes is young (b. 1991) and fast as fuck (under 6.3 in the 60,) but his frame and already advanced swing that gives hope.  At this point, Fuentes knows how to hit the ball hard from pole to pole.  It’s fair to project at least a slight uptick in power, but for the most part we’re talking a doubles (and triples) machine.

The Red Sox paid him a good amount for the 28th spot and you’ve got to assume that he’s more than just a trade chip.  Obviously, the most important aspect of value is whether or not he plays for the Red Sox — Which, I have to assume he will.

Right now, he’s only weighing in at a buck-sixty, which leaves plenty of room for growth without sacrificing speed.

The Tristar Cards are presenting pretty awesome deals right now, and I’m buying.  Whether or not his stock rises before BDPP (a good chance w/ BB America’s Organizational Lists heading towards the American League Soon)

This is going to be a headache, but with the economy down and the checklist looking a weak, I’m going to do the unthinkable:  I’m going to share not only detailed reports, but also project the market values and steals for this year’s Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects baseball cards.

For the majority of fantasy baseball players outside of the insanely deep leagues, this’ll probably be worthless evaluation.  For the card collectors that like to purchase a card for ten dollars and re-sell it for 50, this might be useful.

Here’s the Checklist (courtesy of CardboardConnection.com.)  It’s a preliminary checklist, but I’ll update it as new information becomes available.

The Florida Marlins are stubbornly perched just five games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, and a measly three games behind the wild-card leading San Francisco Giants.

The Marlins recent acquisition of a Nick Johnson gives them tremendous flexibility for a playoff run.  It appears as though Johnson will take up first, with Cantu moving to third. Emilio Bonifacio should split time with Chris Coghlan in left field, but both are capable of playing multiple positions, if need be.

I whole-heartedly agree with the Nick Johnson rental, but the Marlins have someone already in their system that could have provided a similar boost for the playoff run.  You guessed it, Cameron Maybin.

Unlike the majority of hard-core prospect watchers, I wasn’t enamored with Maybin to start this year, or last year, or as a Tiger.  Maybin’s always exhibited a sense of recklessness and a lack of discipline.  Defensively and at the plate, Maybin seemingly lacks the desire to capitalize on all of his natural talents, the desire to achieve greatness.

Maybin’s making a convert out of me with his stay in AAA-New Orleans, though. Prior to this year, Maybin had never spent time in AAA ball, he’d made the jump straight from AA ball in two consecutive seasons.  In 240 AAA plate appearances, Cameron Maybin’s hitting .329 with 3 home runs and six stolen bases.  This shouldn’t come as a surprise though, Maybin’s definitely been-there done-that with the power-speed combo.  What should come as a surprise is Maybin’s dedication to making each plate appearance count.  Even during Maybin’s most promising Minor League seasons, he couldn’t refrain from striking out between 25-30% of the time.  That impatient approach festered into a 37% MLB strike-out rate before Maybin was optioned early in the 2009 season.

In AAA-New Orleans, Maybin’s striking out under 20% of the time. Maybin’s also posted a 0.72 BB/K Ratio by maintaining his consistent above average walk-rate, while lowering his strike-outs.  Quite literally, Cameron Maybin has been earning his free passes rather than pitchers avoiding his strike-zone with intentional, unintentional walks.

Maybin’s continued to hit the ball hard through this transitional period; legging out 6  triples and 14 doubles to go along with his three home-runs.  Maybin does have a BABIP above .400 in New Orleans, so the .329 average isn’t completely legit, but Maybin is capable of posting a well above league-average BABIP.

As is often the case with hot young prospects, Cameron Maybin was overwhelmed by superior big-league talent.  He was quickly flustered and started pushing too hard to make a difference. Maybin’s settled down both in the batters box and mentally.  The numbers reflect a quick adjustment, and suggest that Maybin’s finally ready for the show.

Unfortunately, Florida’s probably going to have to fall out of the pennant race for Maybin to contribute regularly.  With the harem of league-average fielders that Florida’s amassed, there’s really no room for Maybin’s learning curve especially when you’re already five games back.  The curve won’t be that long, but even if it takes Maybin five games to hit his stride, that’s probably too long for a contender.

Heading into 2009, Baseball America did everyone a favour and ranked the top-100 prospects. After dominating Olympic competition, Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and his heavy fastball jumped into the top-20 as the 11th overall prospect, just behind super-prospect Neftali Feliz. Twenty-year old Rick Porcello wasn’t all that far behind as Baseball America ranked him the 21st overall for the second year in a row.

Rick Porcello - Rivals.com

It’s Porcello, one year removed from his 7-million dollar prep-bonus, that’s adapted to the level of competition quicker — or so it appears. Porcello’s currently 6-and-2 with a sparking 3.48 ERA which is head and shoulders above Cahill’s 4.48 ERA and 2-and-5 record. Their Fielding Independent Pitching ERAs aren’t nearly as pretty, but Porcello once against bests Cahill with a 4.67 to 5.61 advantage. Neither Porcello nor Cahill has been as dominant as expected; both posted painfully low strike-out numbers, especially given their pure stuff.  Porcello posted surprisingly low strike-out totals in his first professional season, failing to tally 6-K per 9 in High-A.  Porcello‘s continued to post mediocre strike-out totals in the show, notching only 5.57 K per 9, thus far.  Porcello‘s succeeded on the strength of a ridiculous 54% ground-ball rate and by limiting free passes.

Trevor John Cahill

Cahill on the other hand, …what the hell happened to Trevor Cahill?

Cahill doesn’t throw quite as hard as Porcello, but he’s got a solid repertoire of pitches to go with his heavy two-seamer. Prior to his 2008 promotion to Double-A, Cahill was consistently notching 10+ K-per-9. Even after his promotion (as a 20-year old,) Cahill managed 34 strike-outs in 37 IP or 8K/9.  Upon Cahill‘s arrival in Oakland, he’s either been told to pitch to contact or has been abandon by his secondary offerings, as he’s seen his K-per-9 level off at 3.95 batters per 9. Coincidentally, 3.95 batters per nine is also the number of free passes Cahill’s allowing in the majors, good for a 1.00 K:BB rate.  It’s not the walk rate that’s been surprising though, it’s the drastic decline in strike-outs — even the most conservative models didn’t peg Cahill as a sub-4.00 K/9 pitcher.

It’s almost certain that both of these future aces will be demoted at some point to fine tune their mechanics, but viewing their future through the paradigm of a re-draft fantasy baseball league should be interesting at the very least.

When it comes to pure stuff, Porcello notches out Cahill based on pure velocity. Both pitchers throw hard, but Porcello has no issues firing his fastball upto 95mph whereas Cahill generally tops out in the 93-94mph area.  Porcello also changes speeds marginally better, as his curveball and slider drop below 80mph.  Both pitchers rely on their two-seamer heavily and while Cahill has the potential to get more vertical and horizontal movement, it’s Porcello that throws the pitch with consistency.  Cahill‘s clearly experiencing major issues with his release point, and replicating pitches as we use http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/ to compare their most recent starts on May 27th.

Trevor Cahill Release Point vs. Seattle May 27th

Porcello Release Point Vs. Kansas City

It’s pretty clear that Porcello‘s (bottom) finding and replicating his release point fairly well for a young kid, a 6-foot-5 kid at that.  Cahill (top) on the other hand is having issues finding his release point, with almost a full 2 inch disparity on some pitches.  Of all Cahill‘s problems, this is a minor one, but it may be contributing to his trouble finding the zone.

Cahill Strike Zone Plot By Pitch

Porcello Strike Zone Plot

Cahill (top) is all over the map, but he’s keeping the majority of his strikes down in the zone.  Trevor’s still leaving more than his fair share of change-ups up in the zone, but for the most part he’s keeping his ‘strikes’ down in the zone. Porcello on the other hand, pounded the zone against the Royals en route to six strong innings of 4-hit baseball.

Cahill's Vertical and Horizontal Break Chart

Porcello's Horizontal Vertical Break Chart

It’s pretty clear that both Cahill and Porcello threw an insane amount of two seamers, even if Porcello‘s 2-seamer was often misclassified. Porcello‘s two seamer shows a tonne of movement, but doesn’t match the difference between Cahill‘s 4-seam and 2-seam fastball.  Cahill‘s 4-seamer has quite a bit of backspin, and a tremendous amount of tailing action to it.  Porcello’s off-speed offerings, along with a greater change of speed, also have superior movement. In the end, based on their two latest games, it’s clear that Porcello‘s exhibited superior refinement. However, if Cahill can clean up his delivery and release point, he does have the arsenal to drastically lower his walks while increasing his strike-outs.

There’s some evidence that Cahill‘s beginning to put it together after a rough start to the season, even if he’s faced lack-luster competition thus far.  As sinkerballers are prone to do, Cahill’s had two blow-ups where he failed to make it through 3 innings while giving up 7 ER ( @Detroit, May 24th, and vs. Tampa, April 24th.) 

Excluding those two outings leaves Cahill with a line of  55.1 IP, 15 ER, 46 H, 22 BB, 25 K or a 2.44 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP!

While randomly eliminating two data-sets for shits and giggles isn’t exactly statistically professional, Trevor Cahill has proven to be capable of putting together solid outings.  More importantly, prior to last night, Trevor Cahill had put together two straight 5 strike-out performances in 6.0 & 7.1 IP against Arizona and Seattle.  Having a good outing versus Arizona is nothing special, but overlooking Cahill‘s performance against a mediocre Mariners team would be a mistake.  The Seattle Mariners had already seen Trevor Cahill twice and after being held to a single run in each of those games, they should’ve been comfortable with his entire arsenal.  Cahill‘s continued domination of the M’s showcases his elite stuff, rather than extended beginners luck.

Much like Cahill, Rick Porcello had a couple early season jitters but has been lights-out since allowing 4 ER to TOR and KC, and 6 ER to the Yankees. Since his Yankee blow-up, Porcello’s allowed 1-run three times, 2 runs once, and shut-out then Twinkies. Porcello has also seen his strike-out numbers increase, and stabilize at 5 or 6 K per 9.

Neither Cahill or Porcello is initiating that many swings-and-misses inside or outside of the zone.  I wouldn’t expect either of these future aces to surpass 6 – 6.5 K per 9 with their current philosphy, however they both have room to improve in the K-department. It’s pretty clear that both of these kids are really starting to put it together, but like most rookies they’ll be proned to blow-ups.  Quantifying composure is obviously a difficult thing to do, but Cahill should have the edge over Porcello at this point.  A few terrible starts for Porcello could spell the end of his 2009 Big League season, as the Tigers would prefer not to ‘Bonderman’ yet another future star.

]]> http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/06/rick-porcello-trevor-cahill-past-present-future/feed/ 0 http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/04/welcome-back-phil-dont-call-me-philip-hughes/ http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/04/welcome-back-phil-dont-call-me-philip-hughes/#comments Sun, 26 Apr 2009 22:10:11 +0000 kris http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/?p=1380 Tweet

Welcome Back Mr. Phil(ip) Hughes!

Rapper turned preacher, turned preach-rapper, Mase, would like to say, “WELCOME BACK!” to Mr. Phil Hughes.

The Phil Hughes Story:

• First Team High School All-American.
• Drafted 23rd overall by the Yankees in the First Year Players Draft.
• Baseball America ranked him the number four overall prospect in 2007.
• MLB Line: 106.2 IP, 5.15 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 81 K

Hughes’ Stuff

• 91-95 mph 4-seamer
• 87-90 mph 2-seamer
• low-70s mph Curve Ball
• low-80s mph change-up
• mid-80s Cut-Fastball / Slider

Hughes In The Minors: 2007 to 2009

Hughes garnered immense hype prior to his first big-league start as is generally the case with Yankees’ prospects.  Unfortunately, Hughes has yet to get a fair shake and has been quite mediocre in limited MLB action because the Yankees continually stock-pile free-agent pitching.  Considering Hughes’ mound-presence and major-league readiness, it’s a surprise the Yankees have relegated Hughes to spot-start duty and withering away in the minors.

Hughes has dominated minor-league hitters across all levels and continues to impress in 2009. In 19.1 innings for AAA-Scranton, Hughes is the proud owner of a 1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 19K, and has won each of the three games he’s started.  Quite simply, Phil Hughes is too damn good for AAA.

2008 was a mess for Hughes who suffered a strained oblique muscle to go along with a cracked rib-cage and a diagnosis of near-sightedness. All and all, 2008 was a year that you can probably ignore when looking at Hughes’ minor-league track-record.

2009 Fantasy Impact

Chien-Ming Wang and the case of the disappearing velocity has lead to a 2009 ERA of 34.50 and a DL-stint. With Wang on the DL, it appears as though Hughes will get every opportunity to impress making his first start on Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers.

1. If you’re a Yankees fan you should be thanking your lucky stars that he’s starting in Comerica rather than New Yankee Stadium.  While Hughes is calm, cool and collected — he’s still a 22-year old.  Pitching in Detroit should provide some distance for Hughes and a successful first start could be the beginning of a long career in pin-stripes for the perennial prospect.
2. The Yankees have a nice little schedule coming up, and if Hughes is fully inserted into the rotation he’ll pitch to Detroit, Anaheim, Baltimore, Toronto and Minnesota. If the rotation stays in line, and starts aren’t skipped; Hughes will luck-out and miss both Tampa Bay and Boston.

The stars seem to line up perfectly for Phil Hughes and facing the Angels at Yankee Stadium will be Hughes’ toughest task, but other than that, he’ll have a very good shot at success over the next month.

With everything lined up and Hughes throwing his dirty curveball consistently for strikes; the only question remaining is whether or not Hughes can convert his potential into cold-hard-statistical data.

Unlike previous years, Hughes should be able to carry-over his potent K-9 rate.  Expecting Hughes to continue striking out 1 major-league batter per inning may be asking a little too much, but he should be able to maintain a rate somewhere in the ballpark of 7.50 – 8.00 K/9 (over the next month.)

Hughes is worth rostering in all but the shallowest of leagues, even if you’re just taking a wait-and-see approach.  I really like the way that the next month stacks up for Hughes, and he seems to be in rhythm once again.

Hughes should’ve learned from experiences and after the kid gets a few wins under his belt — The Yankees will have to pry him from the rotation with a crowbar.  If  Hughes falters early, Ian Kennedy, another interesting Yankees’ Prospect that was equally as unimpressive in his 2008 big-league stint, could get the call.  Kennedy has bested Hughes with 21 strike-outs in 18 innings, and has also dominated AAA hitting, to the tune of a 2.00 ERA.

Where Hughes separates himself from Kennedy and almost every other imaginable prospect, is his control.  Hughes has only walked 3 batters, and currently owns a 6.33 K:BB ratio.

The only concern, especially the way Yankee Stadium is playing, is Hughes’ two home-runs allowed.  Kennedy excels at keeping the ball down (at least in theory,) and may well be a better fit for Yankee Stadium until the ball stops leaving the park.

My gut is telling me that Bill James’ predictions may not be that ludicrous, and the statistics seem to back it up.  Hughes has dominated AAA only to fail at the big league level before, so by no means is this a sure thing.  If you’re a risk-taker though, Phil Hughes could pay huge dividends.

Bill James Projection Model: 125 IP, 9 W, 3.38 ERA, 121 K, 1.26 WHIP, 8.71 K/9, and a 2.63 K:BB

By The Way: I do consider Standard ESPN, 10 Team Leagues, to be very shallow leagues.  It actually upsets me playing in these leagues because so few players are drafted, and it really comes down to who’s team stays healthy. Winning a league like this gives you zero bragging rights, unless you are the kind of person that likes bragging about winning money on a slot-machine.

I wrote an article about Rasmus vs. Schafer, but really didn’t get around to finishing it.  Alas, over the past couple days, rosters are really starting to shape up.  The Hot-Lanta Braves traded away one of my fav-five for cheap steals in 2009, Josh Anderson.  This blind-sided me, bigtime.  I realize that Schafer’s been smash-killing the ball to the tune of a .375-ish average this spring, but Schafer hadn’t been above AA.  His .269 AVG in Double-A last year was misleading, and all signs pointed to a smash-kill season, just not in the show.

Going into Spring Training, I’d say this is a no-brainer:  Rasmus over Schafer in a walk.

But in Bizzarro world, it’s Schafer with the starting gig and Rasmus fighting for AB.  There’s really no way that Chris Duncan can hold off Rasmus, unless Rasmus goes through some serious woes.  The only thing that could derail Rasmus is Skip Schumaker forgetting that he played a competent second-base all spring long.  I followed Rasmus early in ST, and the results were not pretty.  He was batting .200 for a damn long time, and striking out way too much:

Top prospect Colby Rasmus seemed to take La Russa’s advice to heart after a five-for-26 start to camp that included seven strikeouts. La Russa suggested a pressing Rasmus strive to hit for average rather than power while trying to work the middle of the field. Rasmus, 22, hit .328 after March 3 and made the opening-day roster as no worse than fourth outfielder. -stltoday.com

Schafer on the other hand has put that HGH-problem (snitches get stitches) behind him and killed the ball all spring. He looks to have the job all to himself, as he’s really the only capable center-fielder of the bunch, with the exception of Brandon Jones who was just optioned.

If Bobby Cox believes in Schafer, then so do I.

If we’re just looking at skill set, and pure talent: Rasmus wins, hands down — or at least as hands down as your average-joe can predict development, hands down.

Schafer’s still tough to judge, especially when you consider the HGH scandal.  I’m not sure how long that shit stays in your system for, but I’m guessing it’s longer than the 50 Game suspension.  Rasmus does project to have better power, and a better knack for picking the right time to steal.

This is why Rasmus cracks the top-5 on Baseball America’s rankings, and Schafer comes in around 50th.

Opportunity is a whole different ballgame.  Schafer will probably start out batting 8th, but could easily be moved up into the lead-off spot in that Atlanta line-up.  Rasmus on the other hand will undoubtedly fill LaRussa’s wonderful creation, the ‘second lead-off man’, for a good chunk of the season.

Part of what makes Rasmus great, his plus-power for a CF, will be negated if he ever steps up to lead-off for St. Louis. If Rasmus takes what LaRussa said to heart, he’ll continue to hit for average rather than power, which should at least in theory, keep his K-rate at a respectable percent.  With Rasmus’ walk rate, realistically he only needs to hit .270 to be a useful lead-off hitter, even if he does strike-out 15-18% of the time.

Rasmus will eventually develop into a 3-hole guy, with the perfect combination of power-speed-patience; but at this point in his career his best shot at fantasy success is the lead-off role ahead of Ludwick, Pujols, Ankiel, and Schumaker.

In the end, both Rasmus and Schafer have a very solid shot at hitting atop of their respective line-ups by May.  Unfortunately, breaking Rasmus of many of the habits that’ve helped him succeed thus far, could be a challenge.

This one might not be close in the end, as I’m assuming one of these two is going to smash-kill the fail-button pretty hard. At this point though, Rasmus’ upside really negates Schafer’s initial advantage out of the blocks.

One of these two could end up with 15 HR and 20 SB, which sits pretty well in deep leagues, even if they both end up batting in the .260-.270 range.  I’m tempted to predict slightly better Run and RBI numbers for Rasmus, with Schafer not that far behind.

In the end, this is a PUSH.  If you like Risk, go with Rasmus.  If you’re down for the safer bet, take Schafer and his opening day gig.  Basically, I’m bitching-out fairly hard-core on making a decision, but if this were a starting spot in my line-up, I’d more than likely lean towards Schafer.  If this were a bench spot, or a keeper league — Rasmus for sure.

Schafer Photo Courtesy of Wallyg-flickr
Rasmus courtesy of MWLguide-flickr

I’ve created the list of the best keepers for your dynasty league, and now it’s time to give a little follow-up as to why they’ve fallen into their corresponding places.

When ranking players, I generally analyze them in this order:

1. Big League Experience
2. Talent with heavy emphasis on K-Rate & BB-Rate for younger players.
3. Opportunity / Age
4. Ball Park
5. Random Tie-Breaker Determined By Gut Feeling

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Tim Lincecum – SF Giants – 24 - Perfect combination of all of the criteria. His slight frame may lead to injuries at some point however.
2. Cole Hamels – PHI Phillies – 25 – I favour lefties, they tend to stick around for a while.  Injury concerns are mounting, but he’s still entrenched at number 2.
3. C.C. Sabathia – NY Yankees – 28 – Sabathia seems like he’s older than 28.  Motivation is the only question with Sabathia.  Arrival in NY will up his W totals.
4. Johan Santana – NY Mets – 30 – Best pitcher in the game, but he’s starting to get up there in age.
5. Felix Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22 – He’s been around forever, but he’s still as young as they come.  He’ll eventually come around.
6. Chad Billingsley – LA Dodgers – 24 – Massive K potential, in a solid park with a solid line-up all but guarenteed year in and year out.
7. Jake Peavy – SD Padres – 27 – Still has five Ace-like years left in him, and a couple more top-20 pitchers-type years left.
8. Dan Haren – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Coming into his own since his arrival in the desert.
9. Zack Greinke – KC Royals – 25 – Maybe I have him a bit high, but everything’s in place for Greinke to be good for a long, long time.
10. Yovani Gallardo – MIL Brewers – 23 – Injured last year, but it wasn’t his arm.  No reason to doubt that Gallardo will fill in perfectly for the oft-injured Ben Sheets.

11. Scott Kazmir – TB Rays – 25 - An Injury waiting to happen, but he’s good, young and a lefty.
12. Clayton Kershaw – LA Dodgers – 21 – Maybe Price belongs here, but right now I’m liking Kershaw a bit more.
13. Francisco Liriano – MIN Twins – 25 - Liriano has all the talent in the world, but if the Twins limit the use of his slider to prolong his career– he’s ranked too high here.
14. Josh Beckett – BOS Red Sox – 28 - Injuries have plagued his career, and those gosh-darn blisters probably extended his career by a year or two.
15. James Shields – TAM Rays – 27 - Shields has really blossomed, and this is the year we’ll see if he’s f’real.  He posts amazing ratios, and pitches for a terrific Tampa team.
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka – BOS Red Sox – 28 -  Sooner or later those innings are going to catch up to him.  As Dice-K’s skill-set declines, he’ll become a better pitcher that relies on his stuff rather than nibbling on every god-forsaken corner.
17. Scott Baker – MIN Twins – 27 – Baker’s had the potential, and it looks like Minnesota knows what to do with these young guys.
18. Jon Lester – BOS Red Sox – 25 -  I’m still not completely sold on the big lefty.
19. Joba Chamberlain – NY Yankees – 23 – Who knows how the Yankees will end up using him in the long-run.
20. David Price – TAM Rays - Yup, 20th overall.  Give me more than 19 professional starts, and I’ll buy the hype.  If you’re a risk taker, Price is top-10 material, easily.

21. John Lackey – LAA Angels – 30 – I expect improvement over the next couple years from Lackey, even if he’s already 30.
22. Brandon Webb – ARI Diamondbacks – 29 – Sinker baller will continue to post amazing win totals and ratios.
23. Roy Halladay – TOR Jays – 31 – Probably still has a few great years left in him.
24. Max Scherzer – ARI Diamondbacks – 24 - I like Mad-Max, and the tools are there.  He needs to work on his control, a smidgen though.
25. Rich Harden – CHI Cubs – 27 – Top-5 Stuff, Top-1 Injury Risk.
26. Edison Volquez – CIN Reds – 25 – Control problems, and The Great American Ballpark will make for a very bumpy ride.
27. Clay Bucholz – BOS Red Sox – 24 – One of the best young pitchers in the game.  The only question is when he’ll get the opportunity to showcase his stuff without 3 guys breathing down his neck. Next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bucholz cracks the top 10.
28. John Danks – CHI White Sox – 23 – Unheralded on the south side. Danks is a top-tier talent with great stuff.  One of the better risk/reward type guys at this stage.
29. Kevin Slowey – MIN Twins – 24 – Ratio’s keep him a viable as a top-flight fantasy pitcher.
30. Adam Wainwright – STL Cardinals – 27 – If Wainwright doesn’t dominate this year, it’s time to give up hoping he’ll be a top 10-15 pitcher.

31. Ricky Nolasco – FLA Marlins – 26 – Young and talented, just like every other member of that Marlins staff.  His second half last year was ridiculous.
32. Roy Oswalt – HOU Astros – 31 – Not much to say here.  Expect a steady decline from here on out.
33. Matt Garza – TAM Rays – 25 – Showed his worth in last year’s playoff push.  Great at spotting the fastball.
34. Ervin Santana – LA Angels – 26 – Added to his repertoire last year, and he’s still young enough to continue improving.  Expect a solid career out of this youngin’
35. Matt Cain – SF Giants – 24 – Life is going to be easier for this former top-prospect. Living in Lincecum’s shadow will allow him to excel.
36. Cliff Lee – CLE Indians – 30 – I am not, in any way, ever going to be a fan of Cliff Lee.
37. Brandon Morrow – SEA Mariners – 24 - High Risk, High Reward.  I don’t think he takes off until after the all-star break. He can throw that speed ball by ya, and make you look like a fool, boy.
38. Fausto Carmona – CLE Indians – 25 – He’s flying up draft-boards again this year. This sinkerballer has a lot left in the tank, even if the K’s will never be elite.
39. Carlos Zambrano – CHI Cubs – 27??? – I don’t believe he’s 27.  His control has abandon him.  If Zambrano can get those WHIP numbers down, he’ll elevate his game big time.
40. Erik Bedard – SEA Mariners – 30 – Bedard was a top 5 pitcher 2 years ago, but injury robbed him of his 2008 season.  Still lots of potential here.

41. A.J. Burnett – NY Yankees – 32 – Burnett was the hardest pitcher on this entire list to gauge.  He’s a talented strike-out pitcher, and he’s got a great line-up behind him.  He’s also a massive injury risk, and 32 years old.
42. Justin Verlander – DET Tigers – 26 – He’ll regain it, the question is when.
43. Andrew Miller – FLA Marlins - 23 – I’m huge on Andrew Miller and he’ll dominate as soon as this year.
44. Johnny Cueto – CIN Reds – 23 – Solid pitching prospect going into last year. He looked great in spurts.  I’m worried about injuries in the future.
45. Jared Weaver – LA Angels – 26 - Weaver’s a very solid pitcher, with lots of room to improve.  He’ll be one of the biggest surprises this year.
46. Ubaldo Jiminez – COL Rockies – 25 – If he can get out of Colorado, he’ll be golden.  As it stands, he’s just a great young pitcher with a tremendous fastball.
47. Josh Johnson – FLA Marlins – 25 – Solid as a Rock, but not as sexy as Miller.
48. Brett Myers – PHI Phillies – 28 – If he can put it together, he’ll be solid for at least 5 more years.  Myers is a roller coaster.
49. Chris Volstad – FLA Marlins – 22 - Young Marlins pitchers dominate this board, and Volstads experience last year bumps him above some prospects with better stuff.
50. Jeremy Guthrie – BAL Orioles – 29 – Finally putting it all together.  Should be a break-out guy in 2009.

51. Jair Jurrjens – ATL Braves – 23 – Jurrjens is a solid but safe bet if you’re going for a youngster you’d like to keep around for a while.
52. Chien-Ming Wang – NY Yankees – 29 – Lots of Groundballs, and Lots of Wins.  His lack of strike-outs really hurt him.
53. Phil Hughes – NY Yankees – 22 – Hughes has looked awful in the bigs, but believe it or not he’s one of the best young pitchers out there.
54. Ben Sheets – FA – 30 – Maybe you’ll get 4 more injury plagued years from Sheets? Other than Burnett, Sheets was the next hardest to place.
55. Chris Young – SD Padres – 29 - I love Chris Young this year, next year, and the year after that.  He puts up great ratios in PETCO and strikes out more than his fair share.
56. Mike Pelfrey – NY Mets – 25 – Young Met should finally live up to the hype this year.
57. Brett Anderson – OAK Athletics – 21 – Anderson ranks first among prospects with no big league experience at 57th overall! 57th!  Anderson and the next 5 or so prospects have all of the talent in the world, but I’m not risking my future on more than one of them until I see something tangible.
58. John Maine – NY Mets – 27 - The Maine Event should turn things around this year.
59. Javier Vazquez – ATL Braves – 32 – I’d say you have about 3 more years of very good K numbers.
60. Aaron Harang – CIN Reds – 30 - Harang was awful last year, and he’s a better pitcher than his rank would indicate.

61. Jesse Litsch – TOR Jays – 24 – I don’t like Litsch and think he’s a massive injury risk.  Ever since the cut-fastball invaded the Blue Jays camp, pitchers have went down one after the next.
62. Oliver Perez – NY Mets – 27 - Entering his prime, still has room to improve.  Probably will never be that 200K guy Pittsburgh had.
63. Trevor Cahill – OAK Athletics – 21 – Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson both top Tommy Hanson due to Oaklands park.  They also are both vying for a roster spot this year, while Hanson has already been sent down.
64. Paul Maholm – PIT Pirates – 26 – He’s quietly putting together a very solid career.
65. Manny Parra – MIL Brewers – 26 - Talents there, but where’s the control?
66. Dustin McGowan – TOR Jays – 27 - Out for a few months, but he’s a good bet to pitch for  a while longer
67. Tommy Hanson – ATL Braves – 22 - Hanson has dominated the AFL and ST, but he won’t start the year for Atlanta.  Him and Anderson are neck and neck for the best pitching prospect.
68. Jonathan Sanchez – SF Giants – 26 - Control, Control, Control — Get some.  Great K’s from Sanchez, though.
69. Joe Saunders – LA Angels – 27 - Pretty gosh darn boring at this point.
70. Ryan Dempster – CHI Cubs – 31 - Getting up there in age, but should be a steady source of K’s

71. Neftali Feliz – TEX Rangers – 20 – I hadn’t the slightest clue as to where I should put Feliz.  Who knows where he starts the year, and who knows where he finishes it.  He’s got a ridiculous arm, but needs to work on the whole not walking batters thing.  Can he flourish in Texas though?  If you have roster room, Feliz makes for one of the more interesting keepers.
72. Armando Galarraga – DET Tigers – 27 - Boring filler entering his prime.  Some Upside here.
73. Gil Meche – KC Royals – 30 – Boring filler leaving his prime, some upside here too!
74. Justin Duchscherer – OAK Athletics – 31 - Injured filler somewhere around his prime.  Duchscherer’s injuries really put me off, and I wouldn’t touch him in a keeper league.
75. Wandy Rodriguez – HOU Astros – 30 - Great K potential and could be a late bloomer.
76. Shaun Marcum – TOR Jays – 27 - Great pitcher who’ll miss all of 2009 with injury.
77. Ted Lilly – CHI Cubs – 33 - You can probably expect a year or two before the tires fall off — at least he’s left handed.
78. Carlos Carrasco – PHI Phillies – 22 - Young and talented, and might just have a job as the Phillies 5th starter.
79. Gavin Floyd – CHI White Sox – 26 - Once, a top prospect. Later, a bust. Currently, somewhere inbetween.
80. Nick Adenhart – LA Angels – 22 - Adenhart makes for an interesting pick.  He’s not quite top-tier talent, but he’s close.  He pitched some last year, and looks to have a job this year.

Finally, the last 50 pitchers are just listed with the interesting ones bolded.

81. Ian Snell – PIT Pirates – 27
82. Derek Lowe – ATL Braves – 35
83. Chris Tillman – BAL Orioles – 22
84. Franklin Morales – COL Rockies – 23
85. Scott Lewis – CLE Indians – 25
86. Tim Hudson – ATL Braves – 33
87. David Purcey – TOR Jays – 27
88. Rick Porcello – DET Tigers – 20
89. Brian Matusz – BAL Orioles – 22
90. Derek Holland – TEX Rangers – 22

91. Jordan Zimmermann – WAS Nationals – 22
92. John Lannan – WAS Nationals – 24
93. Anibal Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25
94. Jon Garland – ARI Diamondbacks – 29
95. Carlos Villanueva – MIL Brewers – 25
96. Gio Gonzalez – OAK Athletics – 23
97. Sean Gallagher – OAK Athletics – 23
98. Andy Sonnanstine – TAM Rays – 26
99. James McDonald – LA Dodgers – 24
100. Jeremy Bonderman – DET Tigers – 26

101. Wade Davis – TAM Rays – 23
102. Jake McGee – TAM Rays – 22
103. Hiroki Kuroda – LA Dodgers – 34
104. Adam Miller – CLE Indians – 24
105. Edwin Jackson – DET Tigers – 25
106. Randy Johnson – SF Giants – 45
107. Collin Balester – WAS Nationals – 22
108. Homer Bailey – CIN Reds – 22
109. Justin Masterson – BOS Red Sox – 24
110. Ian Kennedy – NY Yankees – 23

111. Nick Blackburn – MIN Twins – 27
112. Brad Penny – BOS Red Sox – 30
113. Michael Bowden – BOS Red Sox – 22
114. Jarrod Parker – ARI Diamondbacks – 19
115. Aaron Cook – COL Rockies – 30
116. Jeremy Hellickson – TB Rays
117. Andy Pettitte – NY Yankees – 36
118. Jonathon Niese – NY Mets – 22
119. Josh Outman – OAK Athletics – 24
120. Jeff Samardzija – CHI Cubs – 24

121. Mark Buehrle – CHI White Sox – 30
122. Bronson Arroyo – CIN Reds – 32
123. Jeff Francis – COL Rockies – 27
124. Micah Owings – CIN Reds – 26
125. David Bush – MIL Brewers – 29
126. Randy Wolf – LA Dodgers – 32
127. David Huff – CLE Indians – 23
128. Radhames Liz – BAL Orioles – 25
129. Gaby Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22
130. Todd Wellemyer – STL Cardinals – 30
131. John Smoltz – BOS Red Sox – 41
132. Clayton Richard – CHW – 25
133. Kelvim Escobar – LAA – 32
134. Casey Janssen – TOR Jays – 27
135. Chris Carpenter – STL Cardinals – 33
136. Scott Richmond – TOR Jays – 29
137. Koji Uehara – BAL Orioles – 33
138. Kenshin Kawakami – ATL Braves – 33

…and done.  The pitchers are the end tend to be filler, with the possibility of contributing for another year or two or youngins who have a shot of falling flat on their face and becoming end of rotation-type guys.

Feel free to comment and tell me why your guy is ranked too low.