Prospects

Reymond Fuentes: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP83, Reymond Fuentes of the Boston Red Sox, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: It’s About Value…

Projected Value: High+

Finally, we’ve got some sex appeal in our autograph checklist.  Fuentes is Carlos Beltran’s nephew, or cousin, or something — Only God knows because the internet’s called him about eight different variations of “relative”.

First off Fuentes was drafted by the Red Sox out of Peurto Rico.  The team affiliation is enough to drive the price up, but we’ll have to see where this opens.

Fuentes is young (b. 1991) and fast as fuck (under 6.3 in the 60,) but his frame and already advanced swing that gives hope.  At this point, Fuentes knows how to hit the ball hard from pole to pole.  It’s fair to project at least a slight uptick in power, but for the most part we’re talking a doubles (and triples) machine.

The Red Sox paid him a good amount for the 28th spot and you’ve got to assume that he’s more than just a trade chip.  Obviously, the most important aspect of value is whether or not he plays for the Red Sox — Which, I have to assume he will.

Right now, he’s only weighing in at a buck-sixty, which leaves plenty of room for growth without sacrificing speed.

The Tristar Cards are presenting pretty awesome deals right now, and I’m buying.  Whether or not his stock rises before BDPP (a good chance w/ BB America’s Organizational Lists heading towards the American League Soon)

Prospects

2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects, Ranked and Rated.

This is going to be a headache, but with the economy down and the checklist looking a weak, I’m going to do the unthinkable:  I’m going to share not only detailed reports, but also project the market values and steals for this year’s Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects baseball cards.

For the majority of fantasy baseball players outside of the insanely deep leagues, this’ll probably be worthless evaluation.  For the card collectors that like to purchase a card for ten dollars and re-sell it for 50, this might be useful.

Here’s the Checklist (courtesy of CardboardConnection.com.)  It’s a preliminary checklist, but I’ll update it as new information becomes available.

Card Number	Player	Additional Notes
BDPP1	Tanner Bushue
BDPP2	Billy Hamilton
BDPP3	Enrique Hernandez
BDPP4	Virgil Hill
BDPP5	Josh Hodges
BDPP6	Michael Taylor
BDPP7	Nick Lockwood
BDPP8	Jobduan Morales
BDPP9	Anthony Morris
BDPP10	Telvin Nash
BDPP11	Brooks Pounders
BDPP12	Kyle Rose
BDPP13	Seth Schwindenhammer
BDPP14	Patrick Lehman
BDPP15	Mathew Weaver
BDPP16	Brian Dozier
BDPP17	Sequoyah Stonecipher
BDPP18	Shannon Wilkerson
BDPP19	Justin Bloxom
BDPP20	Jamie Johnson
BDPP21	Christopher Lovett
BDPP22	Bryson Namba
BDPP23	Aaron Northcraft
BDPP24	Benjamin Carlson
BDPP25	Brock Holt
BDPP26	Ben Orloff
BDPP27	Christopher Sedon
BDPP28	Erik Castro
BDPP29	Ryan Sasaki
BDPP30	Cory Burns
BDPP31	Chris Wade
BDPP32	David Washington
BDPP33	Naoya Washiya
BDPP34	Brandt Walker
BDPP35	Jordan Henry
BDPP36	Austin Adams
BDPP37	Andrew Bellatti
BDPP38	Paul Applebee
BDPP39	Robert Stock
BDPP40	Michael Flacco
BDPP41	Johnathan Meyer
BDPP42	Cody Rogers
BDPP43	Matt Heidenreich
BDPP44	David Holmberg
BDPP45	Mycal Jones
BDPP46	David Hale
BDPP47	Dusty Odenbach
BDPP48	Robert Hefflinger
BDPP49	Buddy Baumann
BDPP50	Thomas Berryhill
BDPP51	Darrell Ceciliani
BDPP52	Derek McCallum
BDPP53	Taylor Freeman
BDPP54	Tyler Townsend
BDPP55	Tobias Streich
BDPP56	Ryan Jackson
BDPP57	Chris Herrmann
BDPP58	Robert Shields
BDPP59	Devin Fuller
BDPP60	Brad Stillings
BDPP61	Ryan Goins
BDPP62	Chase Austin
BDPP63	Brett Nommensen
BDPP64	Egan Smith
BDPP65	Daniel Mahoney
BDPP66	Darin Gorski
BDPP67	Dustin Dickerson
BDPP68	Victor Black
BDPP69	Dallas Keuchel
BDPP70	Nate Baker
BDPP71	Jeremy Barnes
BDPP72	Brian Moran
BDPP73	Nicholas Hernandez
BDPP74	Lance Durham
BDPP75	Adam Buschini
BDPP76	Tony Sanchez	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP77	Eric Arnett	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP78	Tim Wheeler	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP79	Matt Hobgood	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP80	Matt Bashore	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP81	Randal Grichuk	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP82	A.J. Pollock	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP83	Reymond Fuentes	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP84	Jiovanni Mier	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP85	Chad Jenkins	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP86	Zack Wheeler	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP87	Mike Minor	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP88	Jared Mitchell	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP89	Mike Trout	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP90	Alex White	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP91	Bobby Borchering	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP92	Chad James	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP93	Tyler Matzek	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP94	Max Stassi	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP95	Drew Storen	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP96	Brad Boxberger	Bowman Chrome Autograph
BDPP97	Mike Leake	Bowman Chrome Autograph

Prospects

The Marlins and Maybin

The Florida Marlins are stubbornly perched just five games back of the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, and a measly three games behind the wild-card leading San Francisco Giants.

The Marlins recent acquisition of a Nick Johnson gives them tremendous flexibility for a playoff run.  It appears as though Johnson will take up first, with Cantu moving to third. Emilio Bonifacio should split time with Chris Coghlan in left field, but both are capable of playing multiple positions, if need be.

I whole-heartedly agree with the Nick Johnson rental, but the Marlins have someone already in their system that could have provided a similar boost for the playoff run.  You guessed it, Cameron Maybin.

Unlike the majority of hard-core prospect watchers, I wasn’t enamored with Maybin to start this year, or last year, or as a Tiger.  Maybin’s always exhibited a sense of recklessness and a lack of discipline.  Defensively and at the plate, Maybin seemingly lacks the desire to capitalize on all of his natural talents, the desire to achieve greatness.

Maybin’s making a convert out of me with his stay in AAA-New Orleans, though. Prior to this year, Maybin had never spent time in AAA ball, he’d made the jump straight from AA ball in two consecutive seasons.  In 240 AAA plate appearances, Cameron Maybin’s hitting .329 with 3 home runs and six stolen bases.  This shouldn’t come as a surprise though, Maybin’s definitely been-there done-that with the power-speed combo.  What should come as a surprise is Maybin’s dedication to making each plate appearance count.  Even during Maybin’s most promising Minor League seasons, he couldn’t refrain from striking out between 25-30% of the time.  That impatient approach festered into a 37% MLB strike-out rate before Maybin was optioned early in the 2009 season.

In AAA-New Orleans, Maybin’s striking out under 20% of the time. Maybin’s also posted a 0.72 BB/K Ratio by maintaining his consistent above average walk-rate, while lowering his strike-outs.  Quite literally, Cameron Maybin has been earning his free passes rather than pitchers avoiding his strike-zone with intentional, unintentional walks.

Maybin’s continued to hit the ball hard through this transitional period; legging out 6  triples and 14 doubles to go along with his three home-runs.  Maybin does have a BABIP above .400 in New Orleans, so the .329 average isn’t completely legit, but Maybin is capable of posting a well above league-average BABIP.

As is often the case with hot young prospects, Cameron Maybin was overwhelmed by superior big-league talent.  He was quickly flustered and started pushing too hard to make a difference. Maybin’s settled down both in the batters box and mentally.  The numbers reflect a quick adjustment, and suggest that Maybin’s finally ready for the show.

Unfortunately, Florida’s probably going to have to fall out of the pennant race for Maybin to contribute regularly.  With the harem of league-average fielders that Florida’s amassed, there’s really no room for Maybin’s learning curve especially when you’re already five games back.  The curve won’t be that long, but even if it takes Maybin five games to hit his stride, that’s probably too long for a contender.

Prospects

Rick Porcello & Trevor Cahill: Past, Present, Future.

Heading into 2009, Baseball America did everyone a favour and ranked the top-100 prospects. After dominating Olympic competition, Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and his heavy fastball jumped into the top-20 as the 11th overall prospect, just behind super-prospect Neftali Feliz. Twenty-year old Rick Porcello wasn’t all that far behind as Baseball America ranked him the 21st overall for the second year in a row.

It’s Porcello, one year removed from his 7-million dollar prep-bonus, that’s adapted to the level of competition quicker — or so it appears. Porcello’s currently 6-and-2 with a sparking 3.48 ERA which is head and shoulders above Cahill’s 4.48 ERA and 2-and-5 record. Their Fielding Independent Pitching ERAs aren’t nearly as pretty, but Porcello once against bests Cahill with a 4.67 to 5.61 advantage. Neither Porcello nor Cahill has been as dominant as expected; both posted painfully low strike-out numbers, especially given their pure stuff.  Porcello posted surprisingly low strike-out totals in his first professional season, failing to tally 6-K per 9 in High-A.  Porcello‘s continued to post mediocre strike-out totals in the show, notching only 5.57 K per 9, thus far.  Porcello‘s succeeded on the strength of a ridiculous 54% ground-ball rate and by limiting free passes.

Read more

Prospects

Welcome Back Phil, Don’t Call Me Philip, Hughes.

Welcome Back Mr. Phil(ip) Hughes!

Rapper turned preacher, turned preach-rapper, Mase, would like to say, “WELCOME BACK!” to Mr. Phil Hughes. Read more

Prospects

Jordan Schafer vs. Colby Rasmus: Battle To The Death.

I wrote an article about Rasmus vs. Schafer, but really didn’t get around to finishing it.  Alas, over the past couple days, rosters are really starting to shape up.  The Hot-Lanta Braves traded away one of my fav-five for cheap steals in 2009, Josh Anderson.  This blind-sided me, bigtime.  I realize that Schafer’s been smash-killing the ball to the tune of a .375-ish average this spring, but Schafer hadn’t been above AA.  His .269 AVG in Double-A last year was misleading, and all signs pointed to a smash-kill season, just not in the show.

Going into Spring Training, I’d say this is a no-brainer:  Rasmus over Schafer in a walk.

But in Bizzarro world, it’s Schafer with the starting gig and Rasmus fighting for AB.  There’s really no way that Chris Duncan can hold off Rasmus, unless Rasmus goes through some serious woes.  The only thing that could derail Rasmus is Skip Schumaker forgetting that he played a competent second-base all spring long.  I followed Rasmus early in ST, and the results were not pretty.  He was batting .200 for a damn long time, and striking out way too much:

Top prospect Colby Rasmus seemed to take La Russa’s advice to heart after a five-for-26 start to camp that included seven strikeouts. La Russa suggested a pressing Rasmus strive to hit for average rather than power while trying to work the middle of the field. Rasmus, 22, hit .328 after March 3 and made the opening-day roster as no worse than fourth outfielder. -stltoday.com

Schafer on the other hand has put that HGH-problem (snitches get stitches) behind him and killed the ball all spring. He looks to have the job all to himself, as he’s really the only capable center-fielder of the bunch, with the exception of Brandon Jones who was just optioned.

If Bobby Cox believes in Schafer, then so do I.

If we’re just looking at skill set, and pure talent: Rasmus wins, hands down — or at least as hands down as your average-joe can predict development, hands down.

Schafer’s still tough to judge, especially when you consider the HGH scandal.  I’m not sure how long that shit stays in your system for, but I’m guessing it’s longer than the 50 Game suspension.  Rasmus does project to have better power, and a better knack for picking the right time to steal.

This is why Rasmus cracks the top-5 on Baseball America’s rankings, and Schafer comes in around 50th.

Opportunity is a whole different ballgame.  Schafer will probably start out batting 8th, but could easily be moved up into the lead-off spot in that Atlanta line-up.  Rasmus on the other hand will undoubtedly fill LaRussa’s wonderful creation, the ‘second lead-off man’, for a good chunk of the season.

Part of what makes Rasmus great, his plus-power for a CF, will be negated if he ever steps up to lead-off for St. Louis. If Rasmus takes what LaRussa said to heart, he’ll continue to hit for average rather than power, which should at least in theory, keep his K-rate at a respectable percent.  With Rasmus’ walk rate, realistically he only needs to hit .270 to be a useful lead-off hitter, even if he does strike-out 15-18% of the time.

Rasmus will eventually develop into a 3-hole guy, with the perfect combination of power-speed-patience; but at this point in his career his best shot at fantasy success is the lead-off role ahead of Ludwick, Pujols, Ankiel, and Schumaker.

In the end, both Rasmus and Schafer have a very solid shot at hitting atop of their respective line-ups by May.  Unfortunately, breaking Rasmus of many of the habits that’ve helped him succeed thus far, could be a challenge.

This one might not be close in the end, as I’m assuming one of these two is going to smash-kill the fail-button pretty hard. At this point though, Rasmus’ upside really negates Schafer’s initial advantage out of the blocks.

One of these two could end up with 15 HR and 20 SB, which sits pretty well in deep leagues, even if they both end up batting in the .260-.270 range.  I’m tempted to predict slightly better Run and RBI numbers for Rasmus, with Schafer not that far behind.

In the end, this is a PUSH.  If you like Risk, go with Rasmus.  If you’re down for the safer bet, take Schafer and his opening day gig.  Basically, I’m bitching-out fairly hard-core on making a decision, but if this were a starting spot in my line-up, I’d more than likely lean towards Schafer.  If this were a bench spot, or a keeper league — Rasmus for sure.

Schafer Photo Courtesy of Wallyg-flickr
Rasmus courtesy of MWLguide-flickr

Prospects

Keeper Dynasty League, Starting Pitcher Ranks

I’ve created the list of the best keepers for your dynasty league, and now it’s time to give a little follow-up as to why they’ve fallen into their corresponding places.

When ranking players, I generally analyze them in this order:

1. Big League Experience
2. Talent with heavy emphasis on K-Rate & BB-Rate for younger players.
3. Opportunity / Age
4. Ball Park
5. Random Tie-Breaker Determined By Gut Feeling

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Tim Lincecum – SF Giants – 24 - Perfect combination of all of the criteria. His slight frame may lead to injuries at some point however.
2. Cole Hamels – PHI Phillies – 25 – I favour lefties, they tend to stick around for a while.  Injury concerns are mounting, but he’s still entrenched at number 2.
3. C.C. Sabathia – NY Yankees – 28 – Sabathia seems like he’s older than 28.  Motivation is the only question with Sabathia.  Arrival in NY will up his W totals.
4. Johan Santana – NY Mets – 30 – Best pitcher in the game, but he’s starting to get up there in age.
5. Felix Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22 – He’s been around forever, but he’s still as young as they come.  He’ll eventually come around.
6. Chad Billingsley – LA Dodgers – 24 – Massive K potential, in a solid park with a solid line-up all but guarenteed year in and year out.
7. Jake Peavy – SD Padres – 27 – Still has five Ace-like years left in him, and a couple more top-20 pitchers-type years left.
8. Dan Haren – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Coming into his own since his arrival in the desert.
9. Zack Greinke – KC Royals – 25 – Maybe I have him a bit high, but everything’s in place for Greinke to be good for a long, long time.
10. Yovani Gallardo – MIL Brewers – 23 – Injured last year, but it wasn’t his arm.  No reason to doubt that Gallardo will fill in perfectly for the oft-injured Ben Sheets.

11. Scott Kazmir – TB Rays – 25 - An Injury waiting to happen, but he’s good, young and a lefty.
12. Clayton Kershaw – LA Dodgers – 21 – Maybe Price belongs here, but right now I’m liking Kershaw a bit more.
13. Francisco Liriano – MIN Twins – 25 - Liriano has all the talent in the world, but if the Twins limit the use of his slider to prolong his career– he’s ranked too high here.
14. Josh Beckett – BOS Red Sox – 28 - Injuries have plagued his career, and those gosh-darn blisters probably extended his career by a year or two.
15. James Shields – TAM Rays – 27 - Shields has really blossomed, and this is the year we’ll see if he’s f’real.  He posts amazing ratios, and pitches for a terrific Tampa team.
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka – BOS Red Sox – 28 -  Sooner or later those innings are going to catch up to him.  As Dice-K’s skill-set declines, he’ll become a better pitcher that relies on his stuff rather than nibbling on every god-forsaken corner.
17. Scott Baker – MIN Twins – 27 – Baker’s had the potential, and it looks like Minnesota knows what to do with these young guys.
18. Jon Lester – BOS Red Sox – 25 -  I’m still not completely sold on the big lefty.
19. Joba Chamberlain – NY Yankees – 23 – Who knows how the Yankees will end up using him in the long-run.
20. David Price – TAM Rays - Yup, 20th overall.  Give me more than 19 professional starts, and I’ll buy the hype.  If you’re a risk taker, Price is top-10 material, easily.

21. John Lackey – LAA Angels – 30 – I expect improvement over the next couple years from Lackey, even if he’s already 30.
22. Brandon Webb – ARI Diamondbacks – 29 – Sinker baller will continue to post amazing win totals and ratios.
23. Roy Halladay – TOR Jays – 31 – Probably still has a few great years left in him.
24. Max Scherzer – ARI Diamondbacks – 24 - I like Mad-Max, and the tools are there.  He needs to work on his control, a smidgen though.
25. Rich Harden – CHI Cubs – 27 – Top-5 Stuff, Top-1 Injury Risk.
26. Edison Volquez – CIN Reds – 25 – Control problems, and The Great American Ballpark will make for a very bumpy ride.
27. Clay Bucholz – BOS Red Sox – 24 – One of the best young pitchers in the game.  The only question is when he’ll get the opportunity to showcase his stuff without 3 guys breathing down his neck. Next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bucholz cracks the top 10.
28. John Danks – CHI White Sox – 23 – Unheralded on the south side. Danks is a top-tier talent with great stuff.  One of the better risk/reward type guys at this stage.
29. Kevin Slowey – MIN Twins – 24 – Ratio’s keep him a viable as a top-flight fantasy pitcher.
30. Adam Wainwright – STL Cardinals – 27 – If Wainwright doesn’t dominate this year, it’s time to give up hoping he’ll be a top 10-15 pitcher.

31. Ricky Nolasco – FLA Marlins – 26 – Young and talented, just like every other member of that Marlins staff.  His second half last year was ridiculous.
32. Roy Oswalt – HOU Astros – 31 – Not much to say here.  Expect a steady decline from here on out.
33. Matt Garza – TAM Rays – 25 – Showed his worth in last year’s playoff push.  Great at spotting the fastball.
34. Ervin Santana – LA Angels – 26 – Added to his repertoire last year, and he’s still young enough to continue improving.  Expect a solid career out of this youngin’
35. Matt Cain – SF Giants – 24 – Life is going to be easier for this former top-prospect. Living in Lincecum’s shadow will allow him to excel.
36. Cliff Lee – CLE Indians – 30 – I am not, in any way, ever going to be a fan of Cliff Lee.
37. Brandon Morrow – SEA Mariners – 24 - High Risk, High Reward.  I don’t think he takes off until after the all-star break. He can throw that speed ball by ya, and make you look like a fool, boy.
38. Fausto Carmona – CLE Indians – 25 – He’s flying up draft-boards again this year. This sinkerballer has a lot left in the tank, even if the K’s will never be elite.
39. Carlos Zambrano – CHI Cubs – 27??? – I don’t believe he’s 27.  His control has abandon him.  If Zambrano can get those WHIP numbers down, he’ll elevate his game big time.
40. Erik Bedard – SEA Mariners – 30 – Bedard was a top 5 pitcher 2 years ago, but injury robbed him of his 2008 season.  Still lots of potential here.

41. A.J. Burnett – NY Yankees – 32 – Burnett was the hardest pitcher on this entire list to gauge.  He’s a talented strike-out pitcher, and he’s got a great line-up behind him.  He’s also a massive injury risk, and 32 years old.
42. Justin Verlander – DET Tigers – 26 – He’ll regain it, the question is when.
43. Andrew Miller – FLA Marlins - 23 – I’m huge on Andrew Miller and he’ll dominate as soon as this year.
44. Johnny Cueto – CIN Reds – 23 – Solid pitching prospect going into last year. He looked great in spurts.  I’m worried about injuries in the future.
45. Jared Weaver – LA Angels – 26 - Weaver’s a very solid pitcher, with lots of room to improve.  He’ll be one of the biggest surprises this year.
46. Ubaldo Jiminez – COL Rockies – 25 – If he can get out of Colorado, he’ll be golden.  As it stands, he’s just a great young pitcher with a tremendous fastball.
47. Josh Johnson – FLA Marlins – 25 – Solid as a Rock, but not as sexy as Miller.
48. Brett Myers – PHI Phillies – 28 – If he can put it together, he’ll be solid for at least 5 more years.  Myers is a roller coaster.
49. Chris Volstad – FLA Marlins – 22 - Young Marlins pitchers dominate this board, and Volstads experience last year bumps him above some prospects with better stuff.
50. Jeremy Guthrie – BAL Orioles – 29 – Finally putting it all together.  Should be a break-out guy in 2009.

51. Jair Jurrjens – ATL Braves – 23 – Jurrjens is a solid but safe bet if you’re going for a youngster you’d like to keep around for a while.
52. Chien-Ming Wang – NY Yankees – 29 – Lots of Groundballs, and Lots of Wins.  His lack of strike-outs really hurt him.
53. Phil Hughes – NY Yankees – 22 – Hughes has looked awful in the bigs, but believe it or not he’s one of the best young pitchers out there.
54. Ben Sheets – FA – 30 – Maybe you’ll get 4 more injury plagued years from Sheets? Other than Burnett, Sheets was the next hardest to place.
55. Chris Young – SD Padres – 29 - I love Chris Young this year, next year, and the year after that.  He puts up great ratios in PETCO and strikes out more than his fair share.
56. Mike Pelfrey – NY Mets – 25 – Young Met should finally live up to the hype this year.
57. Brett Anderson – OAK Athletics – 21 – Anderson ranks first among prospects with no big league experience at 57th overall! 57th!  Anderson and the next 5 or so prospects have all of the talent in the world, but I’m not risking my future on more than one of them until I see something tangible.
58. John Maine – NY Mets – 27 - The Maine Event should turn things around this year.
59. Javier Vazquez – ATL Braves – 32 – I’d say you have about 3 more years of very good K numbers.
60. Aaron Harang – CIN Reds – 30 - Harang was awful last year, and he’s a better pitcher than his rank would indicate.

61. Jesse Litsch – TOR Jays – 24 – I don’t like Litsch and think he’s a massive injury risk.  Ever since the cut-fastball invaded the Blue Jays camp, pitchers have went down one after the next.
62. Oliver Perez – NY Mets – 27 - Entering his prime, still has room to improve.  Probably will never be that 200K guy Pittsburgh had.
63. Trevor Cahill – OAK Athletics – 21 – Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson both top Tommy Hanson due to Oaklands park.  They also are both vying for a roster spot this year, while Hanson has already been sent down.
64. Paul Maholm – PIT Pirates – 26 – He’s quietly putting together a very solid career.
65. Manny Parra – MIL Brewers – 26 - Talents there, but where’s the control?
66. Dustin McGowan – TOR Jays – 27 - Out for a few months, but he’s a good bet to pitch for  a while longer
67. Tommy Hanson – ATL Braves – 22 - Hanson has dominated the AFL and ST, but he won’t start the year for Atlanta.  Him and Anderson are neck and neck for the best pitching prospect.
68. Jonathan Sanchez – SF Giants – 26 - Control, Control, Control — Get some.  Great K’s from Sanchez, though.
69. Joe Saunders – LA Angels – 27 - Pretty gosh darn boring at this point.
70. Ryan Dempster – CHI Cubs – 31 - Getting up there in age, but should be a steady source of K’s

71. Neftali Feliz – TEX Rangers – 20 – I hadn’t the slightest clue as to where I should put Feliz.  Who knows where he starts the year, and who knows where he finishes it.  He’s got a ridiculous arm, but needs to work on the whole not walking batters thing.  Can he flourish in Texas though?  If you have roster room, Feliz makes for one of the more interesting keepers.
72. Armando Galarraga – DET Tigers – 27 - Boring filler entering his prime.  Some Upside here.
73. Gil Meche – KC Royals – 30 – Boring filler leaving his prime, some upside here too!
74. Justin Duchscherer – OAK Athletics – 31 - Injured filler somewhere around his prime.  Duchscherer’s injuries really put me off, and I wouldn’t touch him in a keeper league.
75. Wandy Rodriguez – HOU Astros – 30 - Great K potential and could be a late bloomer.
76. Shaun Marcum – TOR Jays – 27 - Great pitcher who’ll miss all of 2009 with injury.
77. Ted Lilly – CHI Cubs – 33 - You can probably expect a year or two before the tires fall off — at least he’s left handed.
78. Carlos Carrasco – PHI Phillies – 22 - Young and talented, and might just have a job as the Phillies 5th starter.
79. Gavin Floyd – CHI White Sox – 26 - Once, a top prospect. Later, a bust. Currently, somewhere inbetween.
80. Nick Adenhart – LA Angels – 22 - Adenhart makes for an interesting pick.  He’s not quite top-tier talent, but he’s close.  He pitched some last year, and looks to have a job this year.

Finally, the last 50 pitchers are just listed with the interesting ones bolded.

81. Ian Snell – PIT Pirates – 27
82. Derek Lowe – ATL Braves – 35
83. Chris Tillman – BAL Orioles – 22
84. Franklin Morales – COL Rockies – 23
85. Scott Lewis – CLE Indians – 25
86. Tim Hudson – ATL Braves – 33
87. David Purcey – TOR Jays – 27
88. Rick Porcello – DET Tigers – 20
89. Brian Matusz – BAL Orioles – 22
90. Derek Holland – TEX Rangers – 22

91. Jordan Zimmermann – WAS Nationals – 22
92. John Lannan – WAS Nationals – 24
93. Anibal Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25
94. Jon Garland – ARI Diamondbacks – 29
95. Carlos Villanueva – MIL Brewers – 25
96. Gio Gonzalez – OAK Athletics – 23
97. Sean Gallagher – OAK Athletics – 23
98. Andy Sonnanstine – TAM Rays – 26
99. James McDonald – LA Dodgers – 24
100. Jeremy Bonderman – DET Tigers – 26

101. Wade Davis – TAM Rays – 23
102. Jake McGee – TAM Rays – 22
103. Hiroki Kuroda – LA Dodgers – 34
104. Adam Miller – CLE Indians – 24
105. Edwin Jackson – DET Tigers – 25
106. Randy Johnson – SF Giants – 45
107. Collin Balester – WAS Nationals – 22
108. Homer Bailey – CIN Reds – 22
109. Justin Masterson – BOS Red Sox – 24
110. Ian Kennedy – NY Yankees – 23

111. Nick Blackburn – MIN Twins – 27
112. Brad Penny – BOS Red Sox – 30
113. Michael Bowden – BOS Red Sox – 22
114. Jarrod Parker – ARI Diamondbacks – 19
115. Aaron Cook – COL Rockies – 30
116. Jeremy Hellickson – TB Rays
117. Andy Pettitte – NY Yankees – 36
118. Jonathon Niese – NY Mets – 22
119. Josh Outman – OAK Athletics – 24
120. Jeff Samardzija – CHI Cubs – 24

121. Mark Buehrle – CHI White Sox – 30
122. Bronson Arroyo – CIN Reds – 32
123. Jeff Francis – COL Rockies – 27
124. Micah Owings – CIN Reds – 26
125. David Bush – MIL Brewers – 29
126. Randy Wolf – LA Dodgers – 32
127. David Huff – CLE Indians – 23
128. Radhames Liz – BAL Orioles – 25
129. Gaby Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22
130. Todd Wellemyer – STL Cardinals – 30
131. John Smoltz – BOS Red Sox – 41
132. Clayton Richard – CHW – 25
133. Kelvim Escobar – LAA – 32
134. Casey Janssen – TOR Jays – 27
135. Chris Carpenter – STL Cardinals – 33
136. Scott Richmond – TOR Jays – 29
137. Koji Uehara – BAL Orioles – 33
138. Kenshin Kawakami – ATL Braves – 33

…and done.  The pitchers are the end tend to be filler, with the possibility of contributing for another year or two or youngins who have a shot of falling flat on their face and becoming end of rotation-type guys.

Feel free to comment and tell me why your guy is ranked too low.

Prospects

Baseball America, Top 100 Prospects By The Numbers

I’m a bit slow on this, a couple weeks slow — but this weekend has been spring cleaning weekend around these parts.  Baseball America put up their top-100 prospects a month or so ago, and now Matt Eddy has gone and analyzed them in Top-100 By The Numbers.

If you’re not a prospect junkie, things like these are fairly useful to bookmark. The fantasy community as a whole will over-value and overrate, just about every conceivable top-100 prospect. Unfortunately even if they’re top-100 players, they’re not all going to have an immediate fantasy impact. I’d say 1-of-5 top-20 prospects end up making a difference in the fantasy world.

Eddy breaks the the hitters down into their core groups: Power Hitting Positions (1B,3B, LF, RF), Speed Positions (CF, 2B, SS) and Catchers. Each prospect is evaluated using easy to understand metrics such as BB:K, ISO, Contact Rate, and Speed. All of which are solid enough indicators of a players actual propensity for Patience, Power, Contact, and Speed — the cornerstones of a hitter.

All of the fantasy websites will rave about Power and Speed, which is to be expected, but what you’ll want to pay attention to is his “Batting Eye” and “Contact”.  Both of which you can also view over at thebaseballcube.com

The hardest thing for a player to develop, and is almost more of an instinct than a skill, is his batting eye and patience.  You’ll find that guys with average power in the minors can put up solid major league level power, but if they’ve got a terrible batting eye — they’re pretty much stuck with it. There’s always exceptions to the rule, but this is something you definitely want to pay attention to.  If a player gets called up to the show, and the internet’s ablaze with hype — this is what you want to look at prior to blowing your waiver-wire claim.

If you’re someone who spends a good chunk of time on their fantasy baseball roster, you’ll also want to check out how quickly he adapts to being moved up a level.  You can do this pretty easily without crunching numbers by just checking out the minor league game logs.  Look at the cumulative ISO, BB:K, and OBP every 4 or 5 games…

This concludes what was supposed to be a ten word post to share a Baseball America link with you

Prospects

Spring Training Day 4: Revisiting Bizzaro World.

Time Machine: Pavano and Carpenter Go Two Hitless Innings

Who’s to say that they don’t play Spring Training Games on the Island from LOST. Apparently John Locke’s not the only one that’s been reborn in time. Yesterday we found out that Dontrelle Willis and Matt Clement could still imitate a throwing motion roughly 20 times.

Today, we experience another flash and travel further back in time. A time when Chris Carpenter and Carl Pavano were fantasy aces. Dear God, We’re in the mid-2000s. Whether it’s 2004 when Pavano won 18 Games or 2005 when Carpenter won 21 Games while sporting a 2.83 ERA, just doesn’t matter because we’re living life.

Pavano’s made a good chunk of change without actually pitching the last few years, so karma decided to tear him a new asshole. Pavano must now live in Cleveland and only make 1.5M in these harsh economic times. The Tribe took on the Athletics today, and Pavano pitched two innings while keeping the score sheet clean: No Hits, No Walks, No Strikeouts. Carpenter on the other hand, gave us the exact same line. Both have a shot at nabbing a rotation spot, and thus should be kept on your fantasy-radar.

Royals Ink Juan Cruz

In other news, the Kansas City Royals inked Juan Cruz to a 2yr/6 Million Dollar deal, as reported by MLB.

Cruz signed a contract that would guarantee him $6 million over two years. The deal was believed to be worth $2.25 million for this year, $3.25 million for 2010 and had a club option for $4 million for ’11 with a $500,000 buyout.

Cruz is one of my favourite starting pitchers, turned long relief, turned short relief, pitchers in the show.  Cruz has posted consecutive 12+ strike-outs-per-9 seasons over the past two years.  Unfortunately he’s got a matching 5ish BB-per-9 during the same time period.

With the trade of Ramon Ramirez for Coco Crisp earlier in the off-season, the Juan Cruz signing makes sense. As the Royals finished in the bottom half of the standings in 2008, they only have to give up a second round pick to sign Cruz, a type-A free agent. With Kyle Farnsworth, Juan Cruz and Joakim Soria, the Royals have a great ass-end of the pen which should only increase the value of Greinke, and Meche.

Baseball American Top-100, Staff Report

I forgot to mention this but Baseball America released their yearly top-100 prospects list earlier in the week.  You can find it here. The first few names are what you’d expect: Matt Wieters, David Price, Colby Rasmus, Tommy Hanson, Jason Heyward, Travis Snider, Brett Anderson, Cameron Maybin, Madison Bumgarner, and Neftali Feliz round out the top-10.

Now onto the segment that’s bound to die very shortly: Spring Training Recap, Day 4.

Royals Vs. Padres

Mark Teahan went back to second base today and…DID NOT COMMIT AN ERROR! Brian Bannister used MATHS to pitch two hitless innings. Jose Guillen hit a jack, and I still think he’s a steady producer of runs in a solid Royals’ offense this year. Nothing of note for the Padres.

Marlins vs. Orioles

Jeremy Hermida hit a dinger, and I think he gets pretty close to “there”, this year. Hanley Ramirez committed another error this Spring Training and I’m starting to wonder if he put in any time at all, this off-season. Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson each pitched 3 very unimpressive innings. After Nolasco’s terrific finish to 2008, I still think he’s a top-20 pitcher. Jeremy Guthrie’s on his way to pitch for Team-USA, and he looked good in his tune-up today.

Mets vs. Tigers

Danny Murphy played the whole game in left-field today, and looked solid enough.  The Tigers’ line-up looks damn good with everyone healthy, I wonder how long that’ll last. The days of Miguel Cabrera being an undervalued first round pick are over, as everyone’s latching onto him. Matt Treanor threw-out two consecutive steal attempts.

Braves vs. Blue Jays

Jordan Schafer once again impressed, going 2-for-4 while scoring 3 runs. Roy Halladay looked Halladay-esque, striking out 2 in 2 IP. I’m still avoiding Halladay this year due to his 2008 work-load.  B.J. Ryan got roughed up, and failed to complete his inning. Newly acquired Derek Lowe looked solid enough giving up 5 hits in 2 innings.

Pirates vs. Astros

Michael Bourn went another game without striking out, and is starting to look like a viable option. Nyjer Morgan lead off for the Bucs again — 25 SB? Paul Maholm went two innings, striking out two, without giving up a hit. Maholm looks like a solid option to fill out the back-end of any fantasy squad. In the battle of closers, Matt Capps bested Jose Valverde. Capps should be a solid CL-option this year, as the Pirates are looking better with every passing day.  They should at least be more competitive this year, if nothing else.

Phillies vs. Rays

The Phillies played the Rays again, and once again no one outside of Philly or Tampa watched. Talbot gave up 5 ER in 3IP, no biggy — it’s spring. Ryan Howard hit a home-run, big surprise. One of my favourite sleepers this year, Jayson Werth/The Edge, is still out with a sore shoulder.

Nats vs. Red Birds

Carpenter looked good as mentioned earlier, and Schumaker is still errorless. Ryan Franklin looked good, and is still in the running for the closer’s roll. LaRussa’s a nutty bastard, and the job should go to Chris Perez or Jason Motte, neither of whom pitched today. Daniel Cabrera looked awful in his Nats debut, and there’s no reason to own him.  He’ll be useful in a streaming-situation every once and a while though.

Northeastern vs. Bo Sox

Tazawa shines albeit against college kids. On another note: The Red Sox are 7-0 against Northeastern with an 83-4 advantage in total runs scored.

Minnesota vs. Yankees

Jorge Posada’s shoulder is still sore. Liriano didn’t look great, and didn’t even look particularly good, but he’s saying his arm feels good, and I buy it — Draft Away. Joba Chamberlain didn’t look any better, giving up a couple. C.C. Sabathia plans to pitch a simulated game sometime soon. If only he could eat simulated burgers and fries, the Yankees might have themselves a healthy pitcher. The Twins have some serious position battles going on, and Brian Buscher and Delmon Young have been smash-killing the ball to prove their worth.

Angels and Brewers

Finally figured out what’s up with Mat Gamel: He’s going to be a DADDY! Congratulations on not getting married before knocking her up! Braden Looper was scratched because of an oblique strain that he got while sneezing. And that’s that.

Indians vs. Athletics

Athletics Top-Prospect Trevor Cahill pitched well for the Athletics, as did everyone else. What else is there to say in a 1-0 Spring Training Ball Game?

Giants vs. Mariners

In a battle of over-paid AWFUL-TERRIBLE, Zito looked like his old self and so did Silva. Zito struck-out 2 and walked one over 2 innings. Meanwhile Silva gave up 5 hits and 2 Runs over the same amount of innings. Nate Schierholtz looked good again. Velez started ahead of Frandsen, but failed to impress offensively.

White Sox vs. Cubbies

Mets fans laughed when they heard that Aaron Hielman wanted to start, but today he looked solid.  He struck out 4 batters in 2 innings without allowing a run. DeWayne Wise started over Jerry Owens today, and played the whole game without nabbing a hit. I’m still very worried about Alexi Ramirez and if he keeps rising on draft boards, he’ll end up being a bust. Kevin Gregg might just have a shot at the CL gig.  Marmol’s got the talent, but he may be used solely in high-leverage situations rather than in save situations. Good News for Cubs Fans! Bad News for Marmol Owners!

Rangers vs. Diamondbacks

In the Andruw Jones watch, we have a new sighting: A WALK! Jones scored a run today, but went 0/2 with 2 strike outs.  So We’re sitting at 1/9 with 8 strike outs, 1 BB, and 1H. Originally I thought that Nelson Cruz and David Murphy should be downgraded as they’d lose AB to Andruw Jones, but it’s looking like that wont be the case.

Everyones favourite Neftali, Neftali Feliz, pitched an inning today and gave up a run.

Here’s a nice little quote (from the espn) that might make you think twice about assuming Chad Qualls keeps the CL-title all year:

“Tony is a versatile guy,” Melvin said. “He can close, he can set up. He can strike you out, he can get a groundball.”

Asked if sees Pena as a future closer, Melvin said, “I do. But you have to earn it. He knows that.”

Dodgers vs. Rockies

Clayton Kershaw gave up 2 ER in 2 IP.  I’m still not sure how Kershaw fares this year.  It’s hard to predict how long he’s in the rotation for.  I’d still take him over David Price. Is there anything Blake DeWitt can’t do? He played shortstop today. Remember Rafeal Furcal is the starter here…he’ll get hurt.

BoSox vs. Cinci Reds

Boston had a good day today, as they beat Cinci 16-5. Julio Lugo played as well in this game as Lowrie played in the game vs. Northeastern. Clay Bucholz pitched well, and drafting him is wise.  Regardless of what you pay, Bucholz is going to be a steal.  Injuries are the only thing between a BOS vs. NYY AL Championship.

…and we’re done, aside from a quick note or two:

1. Corey Koskie, who’ll play for Team Canada in the WBC, signed with the Cubs today
2. I’m off tomorrow to pick up some WBC tickets for the games in Toronto!

Prospects

The Hype Machine Eats Mat Gamel – 3B – Brew Crew

Mat Gamel, The Heir Apparent? The Next Ryan Braun?

As a 23 year old, Gamel’s not quite to the point where he’s too old for Double-A but he’s getting close. For all you perverts out there, 23 in double-A is like 23 in women’s tennis: they just aren’t as sexy anymore.

In 2008, Gamel managed to grab a cup of coffee in both triple-A (5 Games) and the Show (2 Games). The sample size is obviously far too small for any reasonable analysis, however striking out 10 times in 21 AB in AAA leads me to believe he is indeed a human, and may have been pressing.

How Did Gamel Fair in AA? (Ryan Braun Mashed in Double-A and turned into an all-star. Sound Logic, Right?)

The internet’s ablaze with comparisons between Ryan Braun and Mat Gamel, all because they mashed AA pitching while proving that the mantra “No Glove, No Love” applies to players not just named, Roberto Alomar.

Thanks to The Baseball Cube, we can compare their Minor League statistics:

Player Name	Stat Type	Bavg	Obp	Slg	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HR	2B	R	RBI	SB
Ryan Braun	MLB	.301	.350	.588	938	264	1062	183	320	65	13	71	203	29	9	71	241	0.27	0.25	0.69	0.77	0.11
Mat Gamel	MLB	.500	.500	1.000	1500	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ryan Braun	Minor	.313	.375	.572	947	199	767	131	240	61	6	42	144	34	12	69	151	0.21	0.31	0.66	0.72	0.17
Mat Gamel	Minor	.305	.375	.489	864	447	1710	278	522	115	22	52	285	36	20	184	358	0.12	0.26	0.62	0.64	0.08

Statistics obviously, courtesy of the baseball cube.

Gamel’s played more games in this chart, as I haven’t included Ryan Braun’s college career. With that said, it’s pretty clear to see that Ryan Braun put up superior power and speed numbers than Mat Gamel.   With that said however, lets take a look at the Double-A seasons each had as a 22-year old:

Braun’s Line: .303 AVG/.367 OBP/.589 SLG / .956 OPS which translated into 15 HR in 59 Games.  You also must remember Braun spent 59 Games in High-A ball prior to being called up to Double-A in 2006.

Gamel’s Line: .329 AVG / .395 OBP / .537 SLG / .932 OPS which translated into 19HR in 127 G.

It’s fairly clear that Mat Gamel is lagging behind Ryan Braun in the power department, but not that far. It would be wise to assume, that like Braun, Gamel would start 2009 out in Triple-A.

So Gamel’s Got The Stick, What’s Stopping Him From Being TEH AWESOME?!

Right now, it appears as though Hall will break camp with the starting third base gig.  The Brewers have a back-up plan in Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell, both of which are proven commodities. So how badly will Bill Hall have to shit the bed, and how great will Gamel have to be?

When Ryan Braun got called up, he was slugging at a .700 clip in AAA.  If Gamel does this, he’ll get called up regardless of whether or not Hall finds his stroke.  Realistically, Gamel won’t do this because he is not one of the chosen people. If Gamel can maintain his current production against Triple-A pitching, he should be fine. It’s generally said that Double-A, and your adjustment to Double-A, is the make or break portion of your MiLB career.

It would serve Mat Gamel well to cut down on his near 21% K rate, but a 10% BB rate helps the medicine go down a bit easier. When Gamel’s doubles power translate into big league home run power, he’ll be dangerous.

Bill James’ robot has Gamel coming in at 150 Games in the 2009 season, which seems a bit ridiculous. Here’s the full-line:

150 Games, 539 AB, 35Doubles, 18 HR, 87 R, 89RBI, .302 AVG, 8 SB. 23.6 K%, 8.8 BB% and an OBP of .364.

Bill James is a brighter man than I, but these numbers seem a bit ridiculous; especially when you consider his projection model has Bill Hall down for 418 AB.

The Defense, It’s Always the Defense.

Gamel’s defense is awful, and while he’s improving, it’s a stretch to say that he’ll develop into even a below average third baseman.

Every Article written on Gamel explains why his defense is awful:

Fangraphs: It’s Almost Gamel Time

Diamond Cutter: Gamel’s Scouting Report

Sportsbubbler: Gamel #3 Brewers Prospect

Minorleagueball: Gamel, Again.

Hardballtimes: Yah, It’s Bad

Conclusion:

If Gamel gets called up, he’ll play.  The Brewers won’t call him up simply to sit on the bench while he could be refining his glove-work in Triple-A.

The problem is whether or not Gamel will get the call.  At this point, there’s no way he could step into the starting third base role without massive improvements over the winter and first month or two of the MiLB season.

If someone goes down in the outfield, definitely pounce.

If you’re sitting around watching a Brewers game and Ryan Braun starts taking grounders at third again, definitely pounce.

I’m just not sure that Gamel gets reps at third even if Hall plays terribly.

I don’t think I’d draft Gamel, but I’d definitely be the first guy on a WW claim for him because as I said, if he gets the call — he’ll play.

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