Fantasy Baseball 2009: Second Basemen Rankings, Ratings, and Reviews.

Second Base fantasy wise is pretty risky this year, with all of the top-tier guys having at least some degree of uncertainty with regards to the replication of 2008 statistics or injuries.

There’s not much you can do when someone like Chase Utley or Ian Kinsler falls into your lap, other than take them.  If you decide to wait on a second baseman, or are in an incredibly deep league — there is a lot of value in a gigantic third/fourth tier depending on how you split your tier-system up.  Without further delay, the rankings are as follows with 2008 statistics listed above.

1. Chase Utley

Chase Utley is far and away the head of the second basemen class, however this hip injury and coinciding surgery should have fantasy owners worried. If Utley is out until June, as some reports suggest, he may well be the second or even third most valuable second baseman.

Utley underwent surgery on November the 24^th, and recovery time is expected to be 4 to 6 months. Anyways, with that said, Utley is a standout at a hard-to-fill middle infield spot. If healthy, you’re guarenteed solid power numbers, a 300 average, and great counting stats from the world series champion Phillies offense.

Banking on 100 RBIs, 100 R, 28 HR, and 10 SB with a 300 average is a conservative prediction for a health Utley in 2009.

2. Ian Kinsler

Ian Kinsler is the dirty dirty, and gets it done in Arlington. Whether you draft Kinsler or Utley, you’ve still got a good chunk of risk associated with the pick. Kinsler cannot seem to stay healthy, and has been showcasing his ridiculous talent for a couple years but cannot seem to break that 130 Games mark.

Kinsler brings a different style to second base, and depending on your strategy – it may be more useful. Some people swear by grabbing as many SB from their middle infield as possible, which allows them to concentrate on power numbers from the outfield. Kinsler should bring you 20HR and somewhere in the range of 30-40SB depending on how often he has the green light.

While you can reasonable expect Kinsler to match Utley’s run totals, there’s going to be a steep drop off in the RBI department. While Kinsler may not match his .319 average of 2008, he should be on the right-side of .290 for most of the season. Kinsler dropped his strike out rate down to 13% which bodes well for his future. Unlike many young players, Kinsler retains a respectable BB:K ratio of about .7

3. Dustin Pedroia

Dustin Pedroia, more than anyone in the league, is a product of his surroundings. The protection around him benefits him greatly, and lead to an MVP season. Pedroia keeps up with the big boys in OBP (.376), and has actually maintained his ridiculous .336 BABIP for a couple years now.

He should score around 110+ Runs, along with 85+ RBI, to go with the 20HR / 20 SB potential. While Pedroia doesn’t have the height, he is sturdy enough to avoid the recurring, annoying as fuck, stress injuries. Pedroia may be the only guy in the top three to get himself 600AB.

4. Brian Roberts

Brian Roberts is starting to get up there in age, and his name still rings out as one of the Mitchell Report guys but he’s still one hell of a ball player. He’s also one hell of a guy, and the first to sign an autograph. With an upstart Orioles team, that’s stacked itself with young talent, the decline of Roberts’ physical attributes should be nullified by the improvement of the players around him.

Roberts isn’t going to put up more than 60 RBI, but he’s almost certainly going to hit the 100 Run mark. If he gets to 150 Games, he scores 100 Runs: It’s that simple. Again, the second base position is prone to high-end injuries, so just keep an eye out. Roberts put up 40 SB last year, and 50 SB the year preveious. The prediction systems (Bill James, Marcel and Chone) have him at 31-35SB.

The Home Runs aren’t going to be there, but he’ll chip in with 10 or so when he really steps into it. Roberts is going to be a steal for someone this year if, of course, he stays healthy

5. Alexei Ramirez

Alexei Ramirez should be damn good, and while creating this list I was glad to see Bill James seems to have equally as large of a hard-on for him as I do. Ramirez had a solid rookie year, and put up 21 homers to go with his 13 stolen bases in 509 Plate Appearances.

You should expect bigger things from Ramirez this year. James has him at 88 R, 24HR, 97 RBI, 14SB and a .298 average. If Ramirez attains these numbers, he may even jump a spot higher than I have him, and I have him high. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Ramirez go out and steal 20 bases, and the White-Sox have found themselves a good one.

Ramirez should be the steal of many drafts, as the next 3 or 4 players will go earlier than Ramirez in most drafts.

6. Robbie Cano

Robinson Cano is the pick for the sixth overall second baseman, but if you’re counting on your middle-infield for steals – switch him up with Brandon Phillips. Cano has the possibility of stealing 10 bases, but considering the Yankees line-up; I’m just not sure how much the entire Yankees team will be running. While all of Cano’s previous numbers point to an average 80 RBI, 80 Run season; I’m expecting bigger things depending on his start.

If he can work his way into the top half the line-up, his numbers will skyrocket and you’ll be stuck with a second basemen who can put up 120 Runs and 90 RBI, which aint bad. While the lack of stolen bases hurt him, he’ll probably fall short of Phillips by at least 10-15 steals, his average should be a redeaming feature.

Last year’s .270 average was due to a terrible start, and expecting something between his .306 average of 2007, and .340 average of 2006 is more likely. Cano’s walk rate is absurd, and 6% makes me visible ill, but at least he only strikes out 11% of the time.

7. Brandon Phillips

Brandon Phillips

Brandon Phillips is one of the better fantasy second-basemen out there. Once an uber-prospect, Phillips shat the bed in Cleveland and was traded to the other Ohio team, the Cincinatti Reds. You’ve gotta feel bad for the guy who’s spent his entire MLB career in Ohio.

Anyways, his arrival in Cinci brought with it what was essentially a 20/20 season with 17 Home Runs and 25 Stolen Bases. He proceeded to then drop a 30/30 season on fantasy owners, and followed that up with another 20/20 season in 2008. If you’d like SB from your MI, Phillips is a great choice.

His average dropped to .261 last year, and his strike-out rate has consistantly stayed at about 16.5% for the last few years. While you’d assume he’d be able to hike his average back up to the .270-.275 range; That strike-out rate really expands the margin of error when predicting his average.

If Phillips stays healthy, his average is the only thing holding him back.

Expecting 90RBI and 90 Runs isn’t out of the question.

8. Dan Uggla

In the same vein as Phillips, Dan Uggla is definitely a boom or bust proposition. With Uggla striking out 25 – 30% of the time to reach his 30 HR, you gain a new appreciation for Chase Utley keeping his K-Rate below 20 percent while swatting that many.

Uggla has the possibility of killing you in the average category, so he must be combined with a high-average-medium-power guy from one of your Corner Infield or Outfield Position. Combining Uggla with someone like Conor Jackson in a deeper league, is generally a good call. While you’re sacraficing power from your CI spot, and replacing it with the potential for a great average. You’ve essentially created two players with 22 HR, and a .280 average.

I’m a firm believer in combining players with different strengths and weaknesses to create solid players across the board, rather than trying to draft players that do it all.

9. Kelly Johnson

Kelly Johnson needs to break a finger or two, so he’s forced to stop attempting to hit for power. Betting the house on a 20% or over strike-out rate that doesn’t come with 30 homers is risky business. 90 Runs and 75 RBI are difficult to come by at this point though, especially with the potential for 15 HR and a .275 average.

I’ve made the previous statement so vague that I can move Kelly Johnson lower, and lower, and lower on this draft board and have it still be applicable. Maybe he puts up 17-18 steals, up from his career average of about 10ish. That’d be nice, actually, yah – he’ll top 15.

10. Jose Lopez

Jose Lopez (Kathrine Browne / Flickr)

I’m on the fence with Jose Lopez and the other second-basemen in this group or tier. There’s going to be a two or three second basemen who put up tier-1 or tier-2 type numbers coming out of this group.

If you’re a better fantasy player than me, you’ll be able to pick him out and plug him in. I’d recommending grabbing two out of this following group to minimize your risk however, and with the massive injury risk at the top of the second base rankings – this may be the way to go. If you know what Jose Lopez you’re going to get, feel free to draft him. You’re just as likely, in my opinion, to get the guy who swings at everything and bats .250 as you are to get the guy that’s going to put up 80-90 R and RBI and a .290 average.

His BABIP is very telling however, 2005: .276 BABIP, .247 AVG. 2006: .312 BABIP, .282 AVG. 2007: .269 BABIP, .252 AVG. 2008: .311 BABIP, .297 AVG. Maybe

Lopez is just extremely unlucky in odd numbered years, which is generally the repercussions of selling your soul to the devil.

11. Howie Kendrick

Howie Kendrick is probably going to get hurt and miss 22 games with a problematic pimple and 17 more with a hang-nail. We’ll go into 2010 with the same hopes and dreams about Kendrick, and then finally in 2011 when everyone gives up on him – he’ll live up to his potential.

Anyways, I’m pretty high on Kendrick and I’d imagine he’d find some way to get to 600 at-bats. Kendrick is another young second-basemen who strikes out too much, and doesn’t walk enough but he somehow manages to carry a .300+ AVG at every level he plays. He’s not going to hit for a lot of power, or steal a tonne of bases but he will put up solid numbers across the board.

From Kendrick, my incredibly high hopes put him at a .310 AVG, 15 HR, 15 SB, and 85 runs and rbi. This may seem high, and it probably is, but Hendrick is one hell of a risk/reward guy. Since there’s no safe bet at second base this season, it’s up to you to decide what type of risk you’d like to incur.

12. Alexi Casilla

Alexi Casilla, you have a funny little face, and super sexy legs. I think you’ll steal 30+ bases, but that’s a pretty massive reach on my part. Depending on where you’re batted in that extremely efficient twins line-up, you could be a pretty useful cog for any middle-infield.

Casilla should put up solid run totals, and while his RBI totals will more than likely float around 50-60, he does have the potential to put up 80-90, maybe even 100 Runs. Combine that with the potential for a .285 average, and a good year in SB and you’ve got yourself a nice little sleeper.

Casilla is someone who generally walks as much as he strikes-out, which is a nice sign from a young second baseman.

13. Rickie Weeks

Rickie Weeks is twenty-six years old, and just starting to enter his prime. I’ve wondered what type of player Weeks would have become if he wasn’t rushed into the big-leagues. Every fantasy player was sitting at home waiting for the Brewers to call up weeks a few years ago, and this is why we’re not Gms of real teams. The Brew-Crew should have let him develop, and possibly cut down on his FTW 25-30% strike-out rate he’s consistantly put up.

There’s no reason why a slap hitting second baseman should be striking out 110 times a year, especially when you’re game is predicated on speed. Weeks will develop power, he really will, but until then he should rely on his current skill set. His walk rate is a very nice 12-16%, which hiked his OBP to the .370s in 2007 (he regressed to .343 last year, when he walked 12% compared to 16% in 2007) Weeks is ahead of a few of the other young second-basemen, as he actually walks.

All Weeks has to do is cut down on strike-outs. Hopefully someone can drill that into his head. Weeks’ Ground Ball to Fly Ball ratio of 1.19, which needs to be hiked up to at least 1.30, which would put him in a much better position to succeed. The skill set is clearly there, but the approach is just so messed up that I cannot wrap my head around it. Luckily for fantasy players, an approach can be changed legally and without steroids.

14. Mark DeRosa

Mark Derosa, All Star Second Baseman for the Cleveland Indians, Hrmmm? I’m going to discount the 100 plus runs, and 90 RBI that DeRosa dropped on fantasy owners. DeRosa’s going to be 34 when the season rolls around, and those 20 home runs came out of nowhere but all signs point to a legitimate 20 HR.

DeRosa put up a .857 OPS percentage last year, and I’m sure he’ll be given free reign in Cleveland. The Indian’s have a solid offense, and seems like a walking, talking, home-run hitting, time bomb. A lot of experts have DeRosa as a top notch sleeper going into 2009, but I’m not biting. He’ll put up solid numbers, and he’s a solid option, but I cant wrap my mind around him putting up another season of 90RBI, and 90 RUNS.

85 Runs and 75 RBI seems much more likely, everything just depends on the guys around him. His skill set shouldn’t decline, but the Indian’s offense itself is just a massive risk/reward proposition.

15. Asdrubal Cabrera

Asdrubal Cabrera is the other chunk of the Cleveland Indians’ middle-infield, and there’s a big drop-off from DeRosa’s tier to this one. Cabrera has a solid chance of knocking in about 65 Runs to go scoring 80 or so times. His steals, in large part, will depend on how well the team runs as a whole.

The max is probably going to be around 15 steals, and the low-end probably drops to about a steal or two a month. Cabrera stole 20+ in double A, in 2007 which was probably more of a showcase than a measurable talent. There’s nowhere near enough data to predict Cabrera’s batting average, but .275 seems about right considering his numbers last year, along with his minor league stats.

Cabrera can hit, and hit well, and since he’s not a burner he’s going to need to hit to provide value at this spot.

15.572 Felipe Lopez

Noted cry-baby has landed a gig in Arizona, and I completely forgot about him in the rankings.  He’s got the talent, and now he’s got some opportunity.  The only problem is whether or not he wants to play — if he does, he’ll put up solid numbers.

16. Placido Polanco

.Placido, Placeedo? Regardless, Polanco should have a Polanco year. .305 batting average, 7.67 HR, 90 runs, 61 RBI, 5.33 stolen bases. If you’re going to take a risk on Cabrera, Kendrick, Weeks, or Casilla – Polanco, is a nice way to hedge your bets.

17. Mike Fontenot

Aaron Miles / Mike Fontenot – Whoever wins the Cubs starting secondman job is going to put up some quality run / rbi numbers. I think Fontenot takes it based on his ability to play defense, and hit, and do just about everything better than Miles but whoever plays, puts up the numbers.

18. Kaz Matsui

Srsly? I’m never going to get over the Anal Fissures thing. He and Carlos Guillen are forever linked in the year of the ass, 2008. If Matsui stays healthy, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t, you’ve got some sersious potential going on here. 30 SB are hard to come by, and I genuinely think Matsui hits that number this year. The rest of the numbers wont hurt, or help you. Good deal.

Matsui is a super-sleeper born in 1975, and unlike most of the 21 year-old sleepers; Matsui will actually produce.

19. Aaron Hill

Ben Roethlisberger came back from a serious concussion after a week and a bit, yet it takes Aaron Hill forevers. 20 Homers, 5 Steals, and a .290+ average aren’t out of the question. Hill can hit, Hill can really hit.

The Rest. Twenty to Twenty-Something

Mike Aviles – Maybe he can just put up .305? I’d settle for .305. His walk numbers are terrible, but at least he doesnt’ strike out that much. You gotta figure the Royals take a huge step forward with Gordon, and Butler this year so the possibility of Aviles getting on-base is actually somewhat attractive.

Ian Stewart – Stewart played 12 Games at second base + Coors field. He may be someone to watch going into the season, and keep track of his game totals. With third base being as deep as it is, along with Atkins and Helton planted at third and first, respectively – It may be long enough for people to forget about pre-season sweetheart, Ian Stewart.

He has what Stewart wants, but doesn’t have the natural ability that Stewart possesses. He’s also a much better fielder than Stewart at this point, so it’ll be interesting to see how it all plays out. Even with the loss of Holliday, these two still play in Coors.

If he starts batting .340 again, he’s worth a shot. The other numbers will follow in kind, but predicting batting average can be a huge pain in the ass.

I’m not sure if he’ll put up 90 Runs again, but he’ll contribute across the board if you’re in a deep league. He’s efficient if nothing else.

Blake DeWitt – Jeff Kent retired, and I <3 Blake DeWitt. When he burst on to the scene last year, he put up some fairly solid numbers and became a mass pick-up. Everyone knows his name, and there’s the possibility that since DeWitt started to tail off as people realized they were out of the running for first, that they’ll still value him fairly high. He’ll either be a steal, or a waste of cash money. With Manny Ramirez eventually signing with the Dodgers, DeWitt should be in a great line-up. Keep an eye on just about everything that has to do with DeWitt and the Dodgers.

Orlando Hudson – He should win you you’re range-factor league. Hudson should combine for 120 total Runs and RBI, along with a handful of HR and SB.

Mark Ellis, Emmanual Burriss, Luis Castillo, Felipe Lopez, Edgar Gonzalez, Ronnie Belliard, Alberto Collaspo.