Phil Hughes

Sacks Juiced: May 19th

The Royals’ Mike Aviles continued his hot hitting as he posted 3 hits (incl. a double and a triple)  in last nights victory over the Indians.  Aviles, who’s now hitting .390, will live and die by his BABIP.  Fifty-Nine at-bats into 2010 and Aviles still hasn’t drawn a walk which isn’t the best indicator going forward.  His BABIP sits at .412 but at least he’s making contact 93% of the time and keeping his LD-Rate above 20%.   We’re basically looking at a jacked-up version of Luis Castillo, who was himself, valuable every once and a while.

The Indians imploded, with Kerry Wood giving up five runs and a couple walks in 0.1 Innings of work.  It’s only been 3 IP and Wood’s walked 5 batters but the velocity is better than it’s been in a couple years:  95.6 mph on the FB.  The movement on his pitches according to pFX is also very similar to previous years.  Either way, batters have made contact with exactly 91% of pitches that they’ve swung at.  Worse still, Wood’s Z-Contact sits at  …100%.  With Kerry Wood, I wouldn’t worry unless he proves the BBs are here to stay.

Asdrubal Cabrera had surgery and will be out 8-10 weeks.  Grady Sizemore bruised his left knee and hit the DL too.  Trevor Crowe, replacing Sizemore,  hit leadoff and stole a base.  The stolen base potential is there for Crowe, having topped 20 SB in most of the previous years.

Alcides Escobar had 3 hits to raise his BA to .248.  Escobar’s BABIP is .274 after routinely posting .3-something during his career. So long as Escobar sits atop that line-up and hits line-drives 20% of the time, he’ll have value going forward.

With his 9th steal of the season, Ryan Braun‘s on track to steal about 35 on the year — Jesus.  He should top last year’s 20 but hoping for anything past 25 is pushing your luck.

Octavio Dotel recorded his 9th save of the year; his ERA now sits at 6.23 after that scoreless outing.

I thought about benching Wade Davis against the Yankees — they pegged him for 4 ER in 6IP to open the season — but decided against it and was rewarded with better than expected results: A W, 5.2IP, 2ER, 7K.  Davis is still getting pretty lucky with BABIP (.258) and LOB% (85%;) so expect a bit more regression in the future.  Davis has to bring his BB-Rate of 4.73-per-9 if he’s going to succeed.

A.J. Burnett exploded again: 4BB, 9H = 6 ER in 6.2 IP.  That’s 16 ER in the last 3 starts and his ERA is still only at 3.86.  Well, at least it’s Tampa, Boston and Minny.

Robbie Cano had yet another 4 hits last night.  Cano’s sitting at .340 on the year and leads the AL.

The Gorgonzola pitched another good game for the Cubs ( 6.2IP, 0ER, 3H, 2BB, 5K)

Other than Starlin Castro, the Cubbies offense was pretty bland against Jamie Moyer (7IP, 4H, 2ER, 7K, 1BB).  Castro’s impressed me thus far: He’s walking more than he’s striking out, hitting a decent amount of LDs, and making solid contact.  It’s only 49 plate appearances, but I thought the Cubs were destined to ruin this heralded prospect.

Angel Pagan hit an inside the park home-run and still has arguably the best use of poetic juxtaposition in a name ever.

Drew Storen came in with a man on second and got Livan Hernandez out of a jam. In 55.2 IP, Livan Hernandez has stranded 97.5% of base runners and *held* opponents to a BABIP of .193.  Is there anything you can do aside from chuckle?

Daniel Bard got his first save of the year after finishing up a gem by Clay Buchholz.   It seems like the fantasy community was one, maybe even two, full years ahead when it came to predicting Buchholz and Hughes dominance.  Clay Buchholz may still have a 1.43 WHIP but a .305 BABIP and 69% strand-rate show that there’s room for improvement.  Walks are still a problem but Buchholz only walked a single Twin while striking out 7 in last night’s 8-inning gem.  The line would’ve been better if Bard hadn’t allowed Denard Span to score on a Joe Mauer ground-out.

David Ortiz homered again:  that’s 2 in the last 3 games and 4 HR in the last 6 games.  More importantly, that’s 3 straight games without a strike-out for David Ortiz.

Jason Heyward got his OBP back over .400 after it temporarily dropped to — gasp! — .399 on Tuesday.  Two doubles and a triple mean that more homers are on the horizon.

Scott Rolen’s always an injury risk but boy has he been on a tear over the last 5 games.  Rolen’s raised his average 30pts, slugging percentage 70pts, and OPS a whole 85pts.

Houston scored 7 RUNS! Carlos Lee has homers in the last two games and three homers in the last 4 games.  That’s 3/5ths of his homer total in the last 4 games.

After a sub-par 2009, Jeremy Guthrie is back to being Jeremy Guthrie after hurling 6 Innings of 7-hit ball while allowing only a single earned run.  Guthrie struck out three Rangers before the bullpen blew it.  I won’t begin to even try and understand how Guthrie posted  3.70 and 3.63 ERAs in 2007 and 2008, respectively.  Guthrie’s back on pace to do it again in 2010, though.  A major decline in GB:FB ratio caused Guthrie problems last year and he’s went about fixing it in 2010.  Guthrie’s a guy who should float around a 4.40 ERA but he’s outpitched his indicators twice before, so I’m buying.  The O-Swing percentage is back to 2007-2008 levels and the rest of the plate discipline stats sit somewhere between 2007 and 2009.

As for the Rangers, not much has changed.  Josh Hamilton hit a homer and joined Kinsler, Guerrero and Cruz with an RBI each.  Justin Smoak is hitting .174 and killing me in my keeper league.

Joe Saunders and John Danks pitched a pretty decent game.  Danks struck out 8 but Saunders got the W. John Danks almost has his K:BB up to 3 and has pitched just as well as his 2.26 ERA would indicate (3.09 FIP, 2.56 tERA).  Based on Plate Discipline Statistics, we’re looking at 2008 John Danks (3.32 ERA -3.44 FIP) rather than 2009 Danks (3.77 ERA – 4.59 FIP)

Dan Uggla went deep again (11HR) and is posting the highest OBP (.380) of his career.  Uggla, of course, struck out again which has him pretty much on last year’s pace (26%) with a 24% K-Rate.  There are some underlying issues with Uggla though:  a drastic decrease in LD-Rate (10.5% in 2010) and an unsustainable 22.5 HR/FB ratio.  Uggla’s currently hitting a career high 46.5% (up 10% from last year) of his fair-contacts for grounders, too.

Jaime Garcia threw five innings of five hit ball without allowing an earned run.  Garcia continues to strike out batters (6 last night) but the walks are still a bit of an issue (4 last night).  Obviously Garcia isn’t a 1.28 ERA / 1.14 WHIP pitcher, but he should prove himself to be rosterable for the majority of the year.  Just how many innings Garcia can hold it together for isn’t quite clear yet — Assuming anything more than 130IP seems like a stretch at this point.

Anibal Sanchez outpitched Garcia last night — 7IP, 4H, 8K, 2BB.  On the season, Sanchez has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.  Sanchez has seemingly been around forever and his Major League BB-Rate is finally coming close to his minors numbers.  When Sanchez isn’t walking 5 batters per nine, he can be pretty effective.

The Diamondbacks stomped the Giants, 13-1.  Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson, and Stephen Drew each had a DINGER:  Adam LaRoche had two!

Ian Kennedy kept up his hot start, pitching 8 innings and striking out 9.  Kennedy’s getting lucky with a .252 BABIP and 82.4% LOB but his K:BB of 3.06 is very promising.  Kennedy’s pounding the zone early with a 65% First Strike Rate.  The 3.24 ERA isn’t sustainable but solid K-numbers from a high-threes, low-fours, ERA guy isn’t all that bad.

Austin Jackson had 2 more hits and his BABIP is .458 almost three weeks into May.

Justin Verlander pitched a 1-run complete game and he’s still amongst the top in the AL. The strike-outs are down and the walks are up but there’s still plenty of time for correction: Just take note and remember his BABIP should be around .300, not .264.

Doug Fister got himself into and then out of trouble against the Blue Jays.  It just looked like he lost control for a handful of ABs.

Kevin Gregg got his 12th save of the year.  A BB-Rate in the twos helps take the sting out of the fact that Kevin GREGG!!! is our fucking closer.  Hitters are pounding the ball into the ground at a 50%-clip against Gregg.  Kevin Gregg the man, the myth, the legend, seriously is striking out 4.40 batters per walk.

One thing that’s stuck out is Kevin Gregg’s fastball. Gregg’s still throwing hard on the four-seamer but the pFX and velocity charts lead me to believe that he’s either amped up his slider or has started throwing the damn cutter that the Blue Jays love so much. Check out the Slider Graph and the Game Charts and you tell me.

Headley and Gonzalez went yard but the biggest surprise for me was Ramon Ortiz.  Yah, I didn’t know Little Pedro was still pitching.

Phil Hughes

Former Can’t-Miss Prospects and Their Standing

Drafting former can’t miss prospects has always been the way that I, personally, win leagues.  To attain the status of top-50 prospect, especially with pitching, the underlying skill-set has to be there.  Pitchers anointed can’t-miss almost always have a good-to-great fastball along with at least one plus off-speed pitch.  In most cases they’ll have a decent tertiary offering that allows them to get opposite-handed batters out, as well.  As for hitters, they’ll either have the raw-power or pitch recognition skills to excel at the minor leagues, but they’ll often find themselves lacking plate-control or the ability to take a walk at the big league level.

I hate to undermine the difficulty associated with adapting to the big-league level, but these prospects are generally just an epiphany away from making a huge splash.  The realization that they can no longer just cruise by on natural talent alone tends to breed the kind success that everyone saw in their future a year or two ago but overlooked in favour of the newest cant-miss prospect..

Ta Da: A List of Pitchers

David Price: I mentioned Price yesterday and realistically, he’s one of the best bets on the season to jump into the top-20 starting pitchers.  160 Strike-Outs doesn’t seems like a reasonably attainable number, at this point.  If he can work his way through 180-200 Innings Pitched, the sky’s the limit.

Clay Buchholz: When you’re penciled in as the fifth starter, retaining your job isn’t a sure thing.  In Boston however, injuries to one of the front-five will lead to a plethora of opportunities for Buchholz to prove his worth.  Dice-K’s currently on the shelf and John Lackey hasn’t hit 180IP for two consecutive years.  Josh Beckett’s no better, even if he’s finally starting to come together as the Texas workhorse that everyone predicted.  In 2009, Buchholz drastically lowered his LD%(-3%) while increasing his GB% (+6%) over 92 IP.  With an improved defense behind him, the only thing Buchholz needs to do is control his BB%, something that’s been steadily climbing.  Buchholz is another pitcher that can notch 8K/9 on his way to posting an ERA around 4.00.  For the life of me, I can’t understand why Buchholz change-up is popping up as a negative on Fangraphs’ Pitch-Values Chart.  It’s a good pitch, but there’s a chance that he may be over-relying on it.  I get the feeling that Buchholz is actually working in the zone too much, rather than letting his pitches do the work for him.

Phil Hughes: Jim Callis over at Baseball America tied Buchholz and Chamberlain at the hip, but from my perspective it’s always been Buchholz and Hughes.  Phil Hughes put up deadly numbers as a reliever in 2009, while faltering as a starter: so don’t take the 10K/9 and 3BB/9 at face value.  The biggest change by far was the ramping up of the slider into essentially a cutter.  Hughes brought the heat with 94MPH on the fastball and 88.4MPH on the cutter.  I have trouble believing he’d maintain velocity as a starter, but his curveball and change are workable.  Hughes’ should, with Joba waiting in the wings, be one of the more enjoyable evolutions to watch.  He’s capable of being a four-pitch command pitcher, or the fastball-cutter-curve pitcher we saw come out of the pen.  If I’m watching pitch-distribution for anyone, it’s Hughes.  I love his chances going forward, and wouldn’t be a tad bit surprised to see 50% fastballs, 25% Cutters, 15% Curves with the remaining 10% being split between his Change-Up and his old-school Slider (ie. taking 5mph off his cutter).

As a Jay’s fan, I could realistically see Phil Hughes learning to work the Cutter much like Halladay did.  No, I’m not joking.

Jeff Neimann: Well that didn’t take long.  Niemann’s already hurt.  Either way, he’s absolutely massive and showed the ability to make his split-finger / change-up work for him.  He’s been working his fastball between 91 and 94mph for a while now, and I don’t expect that to change.  There’s no way that he can stay healthy, but if he does, he’ll put up numbers.

Ian Kennedy: How often do you have to be compared to Mike Mussina to actually become the “Moose”?  While a switch of scenery could’ve helped Joba, Hughes or Kennedy become a legitimate front-end starter, it was Kennedy that found himself packing his bags.  Now in Arizona, Kennedy actually has a chance to sink or swim.  It appears as though the injury issues are behind him, and he’s finally ready to just pitch.  In his first start as a D-Back, he went five innings while striking out 8 batters.  He’s got four pitches that he can work and throw for strikes and I think Arizona might just be the place for him.  After Webb gets healthy, he’ll find some starts, I’m sure.

Brandon Morrow: Sticking with the 2006 Draft, Morrow was the 5th pick (Kennedy was 21st).  It seems as though the Blue Jays did a tonne of scouting in 2006, because they’ve nabbed Morrow and Drabek to go along with Travis Snider.  The Jays want to keep Morrow in the rotation, but the BB-Rate is going to kill him.  If he could ever get his BB/9 under 4.00, we might have a useful deep-leaguer because he still shows flashes of brilliance.  He was hitting 98-99mph with ease in his opening start.

Homer Bailey: I hate Dusty Baker.  I think a 7.5K/9 and a 3.5BB/9 are good possibilities.  I’ll bank on a 4.05 ERA and maybe, possibly, a 1.40 WHIP

and done.

Phil Hughes

Welcome Back Phil, Don’t Call Me Philip, Hughes.

Welcome Back Mr. Phil(ip) Hughes!

Rapper turned preacher, turned preach-rapper, Mase, would like to say, “WELCOME BACK!” to Mr. Phil Hughes. Read more

Phil Hughes

Spring Training Day 2: A Little Bit Of A-Roid

Spring Training has reached it’s pinnacle: Day Two! This is where we separate the winners from the losers. This is where we find out who’s got what it takes to be a Vivid Girl, and who’s just a fluffer.

What Have We Learned Today, Day 2 of Spring Training?

Alex Rodriguez may actually be as stupid as reported. When the SI Steroids story came out, I figured there was no way A-Rod could have not known what his cousin was sticking in his ass every couple days.

Alas, Rodriguez may actually be this dumb.  Yesterday after the Yankees / Jays game, Mr. Rodriguez figured he’d catch a ride home from none other than his cousin: The MYSTERIOUS COUSIN, Yuri Sucart.

Alex Rodriguez undoubtedly paid a PR firm quite a bit of money to paint him orange for the ESPN Peter Gammons interview. You’d figure he’d also pay them a few bucks to tell him: “DONT HANG OUT WITH YOUR STEROID MONKEY COUSIN FOR A BIT, KTHX”.

USA today has an AP article describing the whole situation and offer some so obvious it hurts insight, from A-Rod.

Rodriguez acknowledged to the Yankees that having the cousin meet him at the ballpark in Dunedin was a mistake, the person who told The Associated Press about the situation said.

In Other News, Johan Santana has a sore elbow and was scratched in a B game against Italia.  This doesn’t seem like anything too serious.

The Dodgers have offered MANNY! a new deal, and they’re hoping to hear back by tomorrow.  2 Years / 45 Million sounds awfully familiar.  Hrm.

Eric Young Jr. got his second start in a row at second base for the Colorado Rockies.

Mark Teahan of the Royals got some more at-bats as a 2nd Basemen, and didn’t commit an error today! Hurray! Ka’aihue pitch hit today, and did it well — but where are they going to find AB for him?

Jose Guillen wants to be a new man, and he does have a point with the whole ” I don’t beat my wife, drive drunk, or kill people” defense. I like Guillen this year, hopefully he stays healthy.

Andruw Jones of the Texas Rangers got another AB, and struck out again.  For those of you keeping track: 3AB / 3 SO

In the most boring recap of the day, the Seattle Mariners played the San Diego Padres. Chris Young pitched, and his face remained in one piece…for now!  Still like Young a lot as a sleeper?

Eric Patterson who the Athletics got from the Cubs played some second base today but I’m sure Ellis has got that shit on lock-down.  Sean Gallagher pitched well, and the Athletics bullpen looks very solid.  A bullpen can really effect a SP’s ERA numbers — Big Time. I like Gallagher quite a bit this year.

Milton Bradley played right field for the Cubs? Wait.. he was pitch ran for in the first inning after snagging a hit.  This should be interesting. Alcides Escobar committed an Error? What? No! NOT POSSIBLE. DAGGER!

Orlando Hudson suited up for the Dodgers, and I’m still not sure where he bats in that line-up.  He could be a steal if he bats ahead of Kemp and Ramirez.

The Diamondbacks/Indians Game doesn’t really tell you anything new, but I’ve always liked Wyatt Toregas.  Catcher in Cleveland is sorta jammed up though.

The Yankees beat the Rays, and have been anointed World Series Champs. Phil Hughes pitched well, and please remember this guy is still one of the top pitching prospects? in the game.

All sorts of fun out of the Mets vs. Marlins Game. First off, Congrats to David Wright for allegedly boning Eric Andrews and almost certainly perfecting the money shot. Is there anything Wright CAN’T DO?! Anything? Danny Murphy needs to get some infield reps at some point this year. Hanley Ramirez is now an ERROR MACHINE (2 Games, 2 Errors). Cameron Maybin got Picked Off — Nice One, Idiot.  Jeremy Hermida still exists and I still think it’s BREAKOUT-YEAR!

Joe Carter went deep off Mitch “Wild Thing” Williams as the Blue Jays beat the Phillies, 6-2.  Realistically, the Blue Jays are going to come very very close to being the worst team in the AL.  Their only saving grace is Roy Halladay + 8 Trillion left handed relievers. The temperature was 76 Degrees and Sunny.  Toronto comes in at 39 Degrees and Overcast (and this has been the nicest day in the past week).

Baltimore exploded all over St. Louis, showered and then left. Danys Baez wants to be a SP, right?  3 BB, 2 ER, 0 K’s, all in 1IP! Stardom, Achieved.  Baez only gave up one hit though!

The Pirates edged the Red Sox, with Andy LaRoche managing to do two things at the same time — He PLAYED and HIT.  It is expected he’ll turn that doubles-power into home-run power, as well. I’m not certain that Julio Lugo doesn’t end up with more AB than Lowrie this year. Lugo’s always fun to own. I wonder if Nyjer Morgan can hold off the young guns all year long?

Minnesota pasted Cinci, as Micah Owings went for 3 Innings..Either Cinci pitchers are the best prepared in the league, or Dusty Baker is on crack. Joe Crede hasn’t suited up for the Twins yet, but everyone’s favourite roster filler, Brian Buscher, may no longer be a viable option.

Braves and the Astros played a solid game, and everyones favourite Arizona Fall League MVP, Tommy Hanson, gave up a couple runs in 2IP.

Washington and Detroit played an enthralling 2-1 game.  Dunn, Johnson and Dukes all played today leading me to believe that Nick Johnson is still healthy. Freddy Bynum is almost certainly still a very nice guy, who can’t hit.

…I’m not sure how long I can keep up spring training updates, as they’re terribly boring.  Soon they’ll be reduced to short updates where we’ll inform you whether or not a player has ceased to exist.