Raw, unabashed power. That’s Oakland’s Chris Carter in a couple of words. In 2010, the 23-year old Carter absolutely murder-killed AAA pitching to the tune of a .296 ISO, .529 SLG and 31 Homers.

Yet somehow the man with the big stick toppled down Baseball America’s rankings from 28th in 2010 to 91st in 2011. There was a tremendous influx of talent in the 2009/2010 MLB June Drafts, but Carter deserves to be much higher than 91st. Carter may strike out about 30% and may only walk in the low teens, but when he makes contact the ball goes far….real far.

In his brief major league career, Carter’s posted some concerning yet predictable statistics for a power-hitter. His SwStr (15%) is too high. His contact rate (67%) is also too low, but most of that’s coming on bad pitches (O-Contact: 59%) and he’s not chasing more than average (O-Swing: 29.3%).

Carter is (along with Michael Taylor) the kind of player that will put up monsterous Spring Training numbers though. I’ll call it now, he’ll destroy the Spring and become one of the hottest sleepers out there.

Unfortunately for Carter, the Oakland Athletics don’t really have anywhere for Carter to play. The Athletics have compiled a wild assortment of depth at almost every position. In many cases, the bench players are just as solid as the starters. This team is built to withstand injuries on offense.

Carter’s natural position is probably DH, but the Athletics have brought in Hideki Matsui. He’s also a decent first basemen, but the Athletics currently have Daric Barton and Conor Jackson manning that spot. Carter’s pretty terrible but not insanely awful in left-field, but the Athletics now have Josh Willingham and fellow prospect, Michael Taylor out there. Ryan Sweeney’s also waiting in the wings for any one of the Athletics outfielders to end up on the DL.

Coco Crisp and David DeJesus both played under 100 games last year, and Willingham barely managed 114. Matsui is now 36 and Daric Barton and Conor Jackson are arguably the two most boring first basemen in the history of the game (although I’ve always sorta liked Jackson).

So, will Chris Carter find a spot to play? I think so. Something’s gotta give in Oakland eventually. I think the Athletics might be wise to keep Carter in AAA to get ABs rather than sit him on the bench, but he has proven everything he needs to prove down there.

Now, even if Carter does find himself the ABs, he plays in Oakland. Oakland is bad news for a power-hitting, flyball machine (54% last year). Carter isn’t likely to hit better than about 0.250, but the power’s definitely legit.  Oakland’s offense will also score a few more runs this year and while it’s not potent, it should be fun to watch that depth-chart shape up.

Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson both made splashed in Spring Training last year and ended up making the big-club much sooner than expected.  Baseball America had Anderson and Cahill ranked seventh and eleventh respectively last winter and while Anderson had somewhat of a break-out campaign, Cahill sputtered. Cahill’s strike-out rate evaporated last year (4.5K/9) after posting a strike-out per inning in the minor leagues.  Scouts were tantalized by Cahill’s ability to sink the fastball and induce grounders while having a curveball that could put batters away but this rare combination almost disappeared in 2009 as Cahill faced issues with control (3.63BB/9).  More importantly, Cahill’s stuff didn’t look nearly as dominant as advertised.  Well, it’s 2010 now and Cahill’s the proud owner of a 3.02 Earned Run Average.  Cahill’s FIP on the wrong side of five shows that his current rate isn’t sustainable but there are definitely signs of improvement from the young righty.  Quite frankly, his stuff just looks better; his stuff just looks heavier.

Cahill’s still having trouble locating pitches outside of his sinker, but here’s the comparison:

Sinker: Cahill’s two-seamer or sinker has been getting an extra couple inches of drop and he’s been going to it quite frequently.

Change-Up: Considering the swing-and-miss percentage, the change-up has been Cahill’s best pitch over the past two years.  Cahill’s went to it less this year despite adding significant sink to the pitch by detracting spin.

Curveball: Here’s the money-pitch.  Cahill’s knuckle-curve was highly touted coming out of the minors, but looked terribly average last year.  In the data, a handful of sliders were confused for curveballs but he was still barely breaking it past zero on either axis.  In 2010 this pitch has looked absolutely beautiful with an added 4 inches of movement on each axis.  Cahill however hasn’t be able to throw his curveball consistently for strikes and batters are simply laying off the pitch.

Slider: The slider as well has seen improvement as Cahill’s been releasing it at an angle that’ll allow a significant improvement in horizontal movement.

Analysis:

Cahill looks to be remarkably close to actually putting things together which goes to suggest his regression may not be quite as dramatic as suggested by his FIP.  There are a few concerns, starting with a sloppy release point that all but telegraphs Cahill’s intent to throw a straight four-seamer.  If Cahill’s able to clean up his delivery, the next problem is Cahill’s lack of strike-outs, pitch location and pitch selection.   Cahill’s location on breaking pitches, while not atrocious, hasn’t been great.  The lack of location has lead to an incredibly predictable pitcher, even when he gets out in front of batters early in the count.

On 0-and-2 counts, Cahill has been going to his fastball 75% of the time while only showing his slider and curveball five percent of the time.  The pattern continues on 1-and-2 counts before Cahill begins to throw his change-up a third of the time on 2-and-2 counts.  For a pitcher that came with a highly regarded curveball out of the minors, five percent of the time as a STFD (sit the fuck down) pitch doesn’t exactly show a trust in the pitch.  Brandon Webb, my favourite comparison for Cahill, went to his change-up and curveball over 20% of the time each on counts of 0-and-2 and 1-and-2.

Watching the Cahill-kid pitch, I have no doubt that he needs to work on his control but with the increased movement that he’s showing on all his pitches, he’s gotta let ‘em do the work for him.  As it stands, it’s almost as if the catcher’s in Oakland are calling games for last year’s Cahill, not the 2010 version.  Cahill’s an effective pitcher when he’s just throwing that sinker but for him to be anything more than a number three, he’ll have to start striking people out.

Every once and a while, a former star will flash just enough to become tantalizingly rosterable again.  Ben Sheets is one of those guys and he’s currently owned in almost 60% of Yahoo! Leagues which seems far too high given his ERA of 5.70 and WHIP of 1.66.

Aside from a couple blowups against the Rays and Jays where he allowed eight and nine runs respectively, Sheets hasn’t been all that bad.  Ben Sheets has posted 5 Quality starts (6IP/<3ER) in 8 starts and with the blow-ups removed, he’s sporting an ERA under 3.00.

Even with Sheets’ recent back-to-back eight strike-out performances, there’s little to indicate that he’s returned to pre-surgery form.  Strike-outs are definitely a plus, but there are two things that I need to see from Ben Sheets before he’s a BUY rather than a SELL candidate.

INCREASED VELOCITY: Sheets’ velocity is down across the board almost 2 full miles per hour.  Sheets’ mid-90s heater set up his curveball for one of the better one-two combinations in baseball during his stint with the Brew-Crew.  Sheets is two years older and coming off surgery so a full recovery probably isn’t in the cards, but a gradual increase over the next 3 to 5 starts could be the start of good things.  If he can hit 95mph on the gun, I’ll be a happy camper.  As it stands, Sheets is posting career lows in almost every “plate discipline” category which doesn’t bode well for future performance.

CONTROL: When Sheets was at his absolute best, he was walking less than two batters-per-nine.  In 2010, Sheets is walking over twice that amount (4.64 BB-per-9).  While Sheets can probably make due with a lack of velocity, he’s going to have consistency issues if he continues to walk 3 to 4 batters per game.  It’s understandable that Sheets is probably rusty and he’s started moving around on the mound depending on batter-handedness which probably isn’t helping.

Dealing with Sheets is a bit of a pain in the ass, to be honest.  Everyone that drafts Sheets knows that he’s an injury waiting to happen and must put up pretty gaudy numbers to justify any selection.  If Sheets is going to produce average numbers, it’s almost worth hedging your bets and letting someone else deal with Sheets’ injury concerns.

The Athletics have a bunch of games coming up in pitcher-friendly parks, including a few home-stands at the Coliseum, so give Sheets a chance in deeper leagues at least.

Heading into 2009, Baseball America did everyone a favour and ranked the top-100 prospects. After dominating Olympic competition, Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and his heavy fastball jumped into the top-20 as the 11th overall prospect, just behind super-prospect Neftali Feliz. Twenty-year old Rick Porcello wasn’t all that far behind as Baseball America ranked him the 21st overall for the second year in a row.

Rick Porcello - Rivals.com

It’s Porcello, one year removed from his 7-million dollar prep-bonus, that’s adapted to the level of competition quicker — or so it appears. Porcello’s currently 6-and-2 with a sparking 3.48 ERA which is head and shoulders above Cahill’s 4.48 ERA and 2-and-5 record. Their Fielding Independent Pitching ERAs aren’t nearly as pretty, but Porcello once against bests Cahill with a 4.67 to 5.61 advantage. Neither Porcello nor Cahill has been as dominant as expected; both posted painfully low strike-out numbers, especially given their pure stuff.  Porcello posted surprisingly low strike-out totals in his first professional season, failing to tally 6-K per 9 in High-A.  Porcello‘s continued to post mediocre strike-out totals in the show, notching only 5.57 K per 9, thus far.  Porcello‘s succeeded on the strength of a ridiculous 54% ground-ball rate and by limiting free passes.

Trevor John Cahill

Cahill on the other hand, …what the hell happened to Trevor Cahill?

Cahill doesn’t throw quite as hard as Porcello, but he’s got a solid repertoire of pitches to go with his heavy two-seamer. Prior to his 2008 promotion to Double-A, Cahill was consistently notching 10+ K-per-9. Even after his promotion (as a 20-year old,) Cahill managed 34 strike-outs in 37 IP or 8K/9.  Upon Cahill‘s arrival in Oakland, he’s either been told to pitch to contact or has been abandon by his secondary offerings, as he’s seen his K-per-9 level off at 3.95 batters per 9. Coincidentally, 3.95 batters per nine is also the number of free passes Cahill’s allowing in the majors, good for a 1.00 K:BB rate.  It’s not the walk rate that’s been surprising though, it’s the drastic decline in strike-outs — even the most conservative models didn’t peg Cahill as a sub-4.00 K/9 pitcher.

It’s almost certain that both of these future aces will be demoted at some point to fine tune their mechanics, but viewing their future through the paradigm of a re-draft fantasy baseball league should be interesting at the very least.

When it comes to pure stuff, Porcello notches out Cahill based on pure velocity. Both pitchers throw hard, but Porcello has no issues firing his fastball upto 95mph whereas Cahill generally tops out in the 93-94mph area.  Porcello also changes speeds marginally better, as his curveball and slider drop below 80mph.  Both pitchers rely on their two-seamer heavily and while Cahill has the potential to get more vertical and horizontal movement, it’s Porcello that throws the pitch with consistency.  Cahill‘s clearly experiencing major issues with his release point, and replicating pitches as we use http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/ to compare their most recent starts on May 27th.

Trevor Cahill Release Point vs. Seattle May 27th

Porcello Release Point Vs. Kansas City

It’s pretty clear that Porcello‘s (bottom) finding and replicating his release point fairly well for a young kid, a 6-foot-5 kid at that.  Cahill (top) on the other hand is having issues finding his release point, with almost a full 2 inch disparity on some pitches.  Of all Cahill‘s problems, this is a minor one, but it may be contributing to his trouble finding the zone.

Cahill Strike Zone Plot By Pitch

Porcello Strike Zone Plot

Cahill (top) is all over the map, but he’s keeping the majority of his strikes down in the zone.  Trevor’s still leaving more than his fair share of change-ups up in the zone, but for the most part he’s keeping his ‘strikes’ down in the zone. Porcello on the other hand, pounded the zone against the Royals en route to six strong innings of 4-hit baseball.

Cahill's Vertical and Horizontal Break Chart

Porcello's Horizontal Vertical Break Chart

It’s pretty clear that both Cahill and Porcello threw an insane amount of two seamers, even if Porcello‘s 2-seamer was often misclassified. Porcello‘s two seamer shows a tonne of movement, but doesn’t match the difference between Cahill‘s 4-seam and 2-seam fastball.  Cahill‘s 4-seamer has quite a bit of backspin, and a tremendous amount of tailing action to it.  Porcello’s off-speed offerings, along with a greater change of speed, also have superior movement. In the end, based on their two latest games, it’s clear that Porcello‘s exhibited superior refinement. However, if Cahill can clean up his delivery and release point, he does have the arsenal to drastically lower his walks while increasing his strike-outs.

There’s some evidence that Cahill‘s beginning to put it together after a rough start to the season, even if he’s faced lack-luster competition thus far.  As sinkerballers are prone to do, Cahill’s had two blow-ups where he failed to make it through 3 innings while giving up 7 ER ( @Detroit, May 24th, and vs. Tampa, April 24th.) 

Excluding those two outings leaves Cahill with a line of  55.1 IP, 15 ER, 46 H, 22 BB, 25 K or a 2.44 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP!

While randomly eliminating two data-sets for shits and giggles isn’t exactly statistically professional, Trevor Cahill has proven to be capable of putting together solid outings.  More importantly, prior to last night, Trevor Cahill had put together two straight 5 strike-out performances in 6.0 & 7.1 IP against Arizona and Seattle.  Having a good outing versus Arizona is nothing special, but overlooking Cahill‘s performance against a mediocre Mariners team would be a mistake.  The Seattle Mariners had already seen Trevor Cahill twice and after being held to a single run in each of those games, they should’ve been comfortable with his entire arsenal.  Cahill‘s continued domination of the M’s showcases his elite stuff, rather than extended beginners luck.

Much like Cahill, Rick Porcello had a couple early season jitters but has been lights-out since allowing 4 ER to TOR and KC, and 6 ER to the Yankees. Since his Yankee blow-up, Porcello’s allowed 1-run three times, 2 runs once, and shut-out then Twinkies. Porcello has also seen his strike-out numbers increase, and stabilize at 5 or 6 K per 9.

Neither Cahill or Porcello is initiating that many swings-and-misses inside or outside of the zone.  I wouldn’t expect either of these future aces to surpass 6 – 6.5 K per 9 with their current philosphy, however they both have room to improve in the K-department. It’s pretty clear that both of these kids are really starting to put it together, but like most rookies they’ll be proned to blow-ups.  Quantifying composure is obviously a difficult thing to do, but Cahill should have the edge over Porcello at this point.  A few terrible starts for Porcello could spell the end of his 2009 Big League season, as the Tigers would prefer not to ‘Bonderman’ yet another future star.

]]> http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/06/rick-porcello-trevor-cahill-past-present-future/feed/ 0 http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/04/flashback-friday-at-the-rogers-center-food-photos-and-blue-jays/ http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/04/flashback-friday-at-the-rogers-center-food-photos-and-blue-jays/#comments Sat, 18 Apr 2009 02:46:45 +0000 kris http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/?p=1235 Tweet

It’s Flashback Friday, and I’m back at home to watch the game after the Utopia that is April baseball in Toronto, came to a rip-roarin’ end.

Rick The Blue Jays Drummer

During my trips to live-blog hell, I’ve yapped about my ridiculous nicotine dependence.   At the Rogers Centre, there’s no designated smoking area, nor is there in-and-out privileges; basically if you’re a smoker, you’re screwed.

In 2008 however, the fine people at Nicorette decided to give away free samples of their nicotine gum — Problem Solved!  If you’re a smoker, try sitting through 2 hours of batting practice, and then a 4 hour game — it’s not pretty.

This year, the not-so-fine people at Nicorette decided they’d no longer offer free samples of their gum, and they had the nerve to do this without personally emailing me — HEADS WILL ROLL!

Anyways, I said screw it and made the five-minute walk home to catch the entire game on Sports Net instead.   Lots of good photos though! The terribly annoying part is that I left a pack of nicorette sitting on my desk prior to heading out….ugh.

Rick the Blue Jays Drummer was doing his thing outside, and had all the enthusiasm we’ve come to expect.

More, Plz! Kthx.

The Rogers Center has undergone some rather awesome improvements, all of which have to do with FOOD! If there’s one thing that this blogger enjoys more than nicotine, it’s RED-FUCKING-MEAT.

For about 9 bucks, you can get wads of meat on a bun.  Some people don’t like red-meat, but then again, some people don’t like the Die Hard movies.   We call these people women, and they should walk across the street to a basketball game! ZING! …or order Turkey — that looked good too.

Needless to say, it’s about time for a picture of red meat.  I believe the place was called Roundhouse Bar and Carvery, and it’s along the first base side?   Section 122, Apparently.

Okay, it can’t compare with the food that New Yankee Stadium has to offer, but it’s a massive upgrade over the Chicken Fingers, Nachos or Hot-Dogs that Jays fans are accustomed to eating and then burping up for the next five innings.

Jack Cust and Nomar Garciaparra were hitting well during BP. Cust continues to put on one of the better shows during BP, and probably has top-10 raw-power.

Nomaaaaaaah

Jack Custs' Big Stick

That was that, and as always, the Athletics proved to be one of the harder squads to get autographs from, even though Nomar signed about 4 or 5 autographs.

For The WIN!

It was a tiny little army of Cito Gastons, each one happier than the preceding one.  While this was cute, what’s to follow was downright terrifying.  Try your best to count how many Blown Saves you can find in the next photo:

If you’re answer is above 300, but below 1000 — it’s correct.

Finally, as my search for Nicorette ended and I rounded the entire 100-level of the Sky Dome there was another new addition to the Toronto Blue Jays’ Food Selection.

It looked all new-age and what not, and definitely a place that’d kick you out for spitting chewing tobacco on the floor but…

Lots of good stuff at the Rogers Centre, and the prices are reasonable compared to what you’re paying for a slice of  Pizza Pizza or a Subway sandwich.  I think those two chains are going to be pissed the hell off — If someone has to choose between a 15 Dollar SMALL pizza, and two giant sandwiches containing even GIANTER WADS OF MEAT — it’s pretty clear what they’re going to choose.

Tomorrow I will investigate as to whether or not WADS OF MEAT sandwiches come with French Fries…

Oh, and the Athletics one won.

I’m a fucking idiot, ruining a terrific piece about meat by typing the ATHLETICS ONE.

]]> http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/04/flashback-friday-at-the-rogers-center-food-photos-and-blue-jays/feed/ 0 http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/04/high-impact-youngster-brett-anderson/ http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/04/high-impact-youngster-brett-anderson/#comments Sun, 12 Apr 2009 18:35:18 +0000 kris http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/?p=1067 Tweet

I’ve been blessed with the responsibility of making sure the cat doesn’t die.  The cat is Mr. Oliver P. Fucker, or Pussy Fucker for short.  He’s nutless now, but at one point I thought he’d be knockin’ up all the neighborhood kitties.

Alas, I was excited to check out the Athletics / Mariners Game on Sportsnet Pacific (Friday Night), but then shit hit the fan in the Blue Jays / Indians game.  A 3-hour rain delay, and a high scoring game meant the Jays game went from 4pm until 11:20.

I missed Brett Anderson’s first 4 Innings, and I was less than pleased.  Needless to say, I didn’t catch Anderson’s 5 earned run blow-up in the second Inning.

At first glance, there’s really nothing in Anderson’s pitching line that screams ‘waiver-wire-add’, but the potential is there — it’s definitely there.

For reference, Anderson’s full line was 6IP, 5ER, 7H, 2BB, 2K.

After Anderson’s big second, he retired 8 of the next 10 batters he faced — (Chavez Singled – Erased by DP, Griffey Walked).

Anderson threw 85 pitches of which 50 were strikes,  and induced 12 grounders to 9 fly-balls. All and all, other than the big inning, Anderson had a stellar debut.

Anderson’s 5 Run, Second Inning: After Beltre flied out to Cust, the problems started.  Anderson had been consistently hitting 92mph on his fastball, and was locating it adequately. Anderson and Suzuki pitched around Griffey, and was consistently out of the strike-zone after a first pitch strike.  Lopez and Branyan both singled on high-fastballs, that were by no means mistakes, to load the bases.  With Kenji Johjima at bat, it’s clear that Anderson started overthrowing as he was hitting 93+, and leaving his fastball way up. Eventually, he toned it down and Johjima hit a solid curve that Anderson couldn’t have placed any better on the inside corner. After a mound visit, Betancourt managed to double off another high-hard one by Anderson.  At this point, Anderson’s thrown three good fastballs that barely brushed the top of the strike-zone and each one’s been hit hard.  Anderson finally made a mistake, hanging a slider to Thank-God-It’s-Endy-Chavez, but promptly got Franklin Guetierrez to chase a nice change-up and ground into a double-play.

Not nearly as bad as the 5ER would lead you to believe.

Anderson’s Stuff:

Anderson’s stuff is great, and he isn’t hesitant to throw any one of his four pitches. Unfortunately, MLB Gameday Data and Other Pitch Classification systems, have decided to break my head.

What I know for sure, is that Anderson has a big-breaking curve that normally comes in at 75mph and’ll buckle your knees.

Unfortunately, he only threw that pitch twice, both times to Mike Sweeney– and the rest is a mess.  It’s easy to pick out Anderson’s fastball and change, as both have distinctive movement.  The problem’s coming with what GameDay classifies as both a Curveball and a Slider.

Without spending too much time on this, I’d have to assume that all of the 84mph Curveballs were actually sliders which would validate Fangraphs.com Data of:

• 59 % Fastball averaging 91mph
  
• 27.4 % Slider averaging 83mph
  
• 2.4 % Curveball averaging 75mph
  
• 10.7% Change Up averaging 83mph

With that said, Anderson’s fastball has terrific movement and he should induce plenty of groundballs.  In Anderson’s brief minor-league career, he posted high strike-out rates topping a strike-out per inning at each level. In 31 Double-A innings, Anderson improved his strike-out rate to 11K/9.

I wouldn’t expect Anderson to repeat those numbers this year, as he’ll more than likely pitch to contact until he gets comfortable.  Anderson would be wise to take advantage of Oakland’s solid defense: forcing opponents to pound the ball into the ground.

Anderson’s Immediate Fantasy Impact

I’d expect Anderson to induce plenty of ground balls rather than attacking hitters full-bore, at least to start the season.  This should result in a K-Rate of about 6-7 Batters per 9, rather than the High-8′s you’d expect.

This should result in Anderson also posting a useful ERA and WHIP.  Anderson’s control is above-average, but he’ll have to avoid the big inning. Like almost all young players, once Anderson learns to trust his stuff, he’ll be successful.

Pitching in a great pitchers park, with a solid defense behind him, should give Anderson some extra fantasy leeway.

I’m not comfortable predicting final stats for Anderson until I see another start, but he should be at least as valuable as any rookie currently in the bigs. I’d have no problem rostering Anderson in deep leagues, as his upside is tremendous.  If Anderson was rostered prior to his 5ER performance but was dropped — he’s worth a look.

There are a lot of good things you can pick out from Anderson’s start against Seattle, but in the end they are Seattle. The one thing I cannot stress enough is Anderson’s lack of experience. He’s got the make-up to succeed and he’s more major league ready than just about any young pitcher, but he’s only pitched 225 innings of pro-ball.  The Athletics may be very cautious with Anderson, and I wouldn’t expect to see him come close to a full season.

Anderson along with Cahill are the Athletics’ future, and if they’re not in contention; I doubt they’d risk injuring either of their two future stars. Both are capable of epic 110-pitch, 10-K, 8-inning games, but I wouldn’t expect to see them anytime soon.

Adam, over at Project Prospect, has put together an in-depth look at Anderson’s start against the Mariners.  It’s definitely worth a read, probably even more-so than this little diddy — That’s why I linked at the end, so you’d have to read this sucker first.

Joey Devine, who was appointed the Athletics’ closer during Spring Training was placed on the 60-Day Disabled List on Saturday, and will probably require surgery on his elbow ligaments, essentially ending his season.

In steps Brad Ziegler, one of the genuinely nice guys in the big leagues.  Ziegler came to fame during his record setting streak of 39 scoreless innings to start a career. Ziegler throws from a side-arm, not quite submarine, delivery and was ridiculously effective in 2008.

…but maybe it was just luck, Ziegler had a lot of things working for him:

1. Batters hadn’t seen Ziegler’s unconventional delivery
2. Ziegler’s strand rate of 92.3% was unbelievable
3. Ziegler’s BABIP of .246 was equally as insane
4. All of this resulted in Ziegler’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.72 grossly outpacing his actual ERA of 1.06

So what’s the deal with Ziegler?

He’s a ground ball pitcher (67% GB) that pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, in front of a very solid defense. The A’s home stadium rated as the 5th most favorable park for pitchers according to ESPN’s park factors. Mind you, Ziegler’s ground ball tendencies don’t benefit quite as much from the spacious foul territory that makes McAfee Coliseum a pitchers-paradise.

Even with these things working for him, Ziegler still isn’t a prototypical closer. In 2008, Ziegler didn’t miss bats (4.53K/9), and in turn, posted a terribly mediocre BB:K rate of 1.36.

Ziegler’s splits are terribly concerning, as is generally the case with submariners. Ziegler allowed 2 HR all year, and both came against lefties. Ziegler’s WHIP against lefties was 1.52, compared to his 0.88 WHIP against righties. His batting average against echoed these sentiments as Righties hit .198 compared to the .280 that lefties hit.  In addition to Ziegler having issues with lefties, you should expect his LOB% and BABIP to regress towards the mean.

This isn’t good news for Ziegler owners, and I’d ship him as soon as he gets a couple saves under his belt.

Who Steps In?

Santiago Casilla was nearly un-hittable until a May 15th elbow injury forced him onto the DL.  Upon his return, his ERA slowly rose from a May 11th mark of 0.47, all the way to his season-ending number of 3.93.

Unlike Ziegler, Casilla does have your typical closers stuff: 94-95mph fastball, 87mph slider, and a mid-80′s change-up. His change seemed to be incorrectly categorized quite a bit last year, as it was clocked at an average of 88mph.

Casilla has better splits, and has predicted stats of: 8-9 K per 9, 3-4 BB per 9 and 2.00-2.50 K:BB

25 year old Jerry Blevins is another solid option, as the tools are there but he tops out at about 92mph.

Journeyman Russ Springer has nice peripherals, and a nice mix of pitches but they’ll probably be best served earlier in the game. Like Blevins, he tops out at about 92mph.

Andrew Bailey also has high strike-out potential, but his control doesn’t bode overly well for his status as a closer.  He’s best suited for mid-to-long relief.

In the end…

The saves will be spread around, but I think Casilla ends up with better save totals than Ziegler.

There’s really only one conclusion that I’d be willing to stake my name on, and that’s Brad Ziegler doesn’t succeed as a closer.  Unless everyone else falls flat on their face, he wont Brian Wilson or Kevin Gregg the situation either.

Ziegler’s a solid pitcher, and a nice weapon to have, but he’s best suited as a situational pitcher.

Whoever wins the closers gig, will benefit from the stadium, defense, and improved offense of the Athletics.

Photo Courtesy of Ztil301 & Kimberly*, Flickr