Nick Swisher

That’s A Lot Of Money For A Band Box

A grand coliseum it is, unfortunately what’s going on inside isn’t gladiatorial at all — it is far more reminiscent of Christians being fed to LIONS.

In the first three games at New Yankee Stadium, the visiting Cleveland Indians have scored, gulp, 37 runs.  The Yankees have managed a respectable,  but not spectacular, 12 Runs.
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Nick Swisher

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining First Basemen.

As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago.  I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.

Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:

POS	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	Mixed $	AL/NL $	MOV
1	2	Albert Pujols	STL	1B	36	37
Here we have the no-brainer to end all no-brainers. I can’t see him posting another season with such a ridiculous BA though. Still worth every penny of the 35-40 Dollars you spend on him, though.
2	7	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B	31	29
Cabrera or Texiera? Who’s the better deal? Whoever falls further, or costs less. Other than that, it’s a toss up.
3	10	Mark Teixeira	NYY	1B	29	27
Texiera’s RUN and RBI totals should be off the charts but his real value comes from his defense. New York Pitchers will be thanking him.
4	13	Lance Berkman	HOU	1B	28	28	down
There will be a decline from last years numbers, the question is “how much?”. The steals just seem to linger, and it’s getting to the point where you can count on Berkman to snag more than his fair share of bags. I think Howard surpasses him.
5	19	Ryan Howard	PHI	1B	24	26	up
Howard is a beast, and last year’s BA was awful. There’s no way he’s that awful again, and he’ll be a steal. The strike-outs are ugly, but don’t count in fantasy. I’ve talked about punting batting average before, and in a competitive league it might make sense to do that if Howard falls into your lap.
6	22	Prince Fielder	MIL	1B	23	25
Fielder is a curious case: All the talent in the world, but hasn’t quite put it together. He’s clearly got the power, but guys ahead of him have to get on base, which is a problem in Milwaukee. There’s a good amount of boom/bust in Milwaukee this year.
7	32	Justin Morneau	MIN	1B	19	25
Morneau gets overrated due to his MVP and HR Derby win, but he’s a solid run producer. If Mauer is out, Morneau takes a huge hit – but with an improving Minny offense, it’d be wise to expect a slight increase in 2008′s numbers for Morneau.
8	39	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	3B/1B	16	23
In my books, Youk should have won MVP last year. The man was a cog, both offensively and defensively. While the scorekeepers were kind to Kevin, he is a gold-glove callibre first baseman.
9	55	Derrek Lee	CHC	1B	13	21	down
Lee’s the first pick I really disagree with. He’s getting old, has lost the speed that made him special, and is a long ways away from his golden power years. He’s still a beast when healthy, but at this point there’s a lot more value out there.
10	57	Adrian Gonzalez	SD	1B	13	21	up
Adrian Gonzalez is that value. I’d have no problem with someone ranking Gonzalez a full tier ahead of where he sits, in Youkilis territory. San Diego doesn’t have a great ballclub, nor do they have a great park but…but…but…half of his games are on the road.
11	67	Chris Davis	TEX	3B/1B	12	21	down
Davis will start incredibly hot, and I’ll get emails telling me I’m retarded for saying he’s ranked far too high but Davis is too high here. Way too high. His strike-out rate is ridiculous, and while his SLG percentage makes up for a lot of it – he’s still young and this is going to be an up and down year. If he can prove that he’s a productive high-K guy like Ryan Howard, then I’ll buy it. But for now, drop, drop, drop.
12	74	Carlos Pena	TAM	1B	11	19	up
Pena’s a steal, and while I think the Rays over-achieved last year – Pena wasn’t one of them. His 31 HR was a major decline from 2007′s 46 dingers. The batting average will never be there, but he’ll top the .247 he put up last year. Pena’s entire career has been a roller-coaster ride.
13	80	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	10	19	up
As a Canadian, I love me some Joey Votto. Votto has been having a great camp, and had an amazing stint, however brief, at the WBC. Originally down on Votto, I think he outperforms Chris Davis by a hair.
14	85	Garrett Atkins	COL	3B/1B	9	18
I’m not a huge Garrett Atkins fan, but he puts up numbers. If you’re drafting Atkins, you’re probably taking him as your third baseman, or corner infielder. He’ll put up very solid power numbers, to go along with a very solid .300 BA. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atkins get closer to 30HR than his projected low-20′s.
15	119	Conor Jackson	ARI	1B/OF	7	17
Speaking of a power-outage at first base, here’s Conor Jackson. He’s an unconventional first baseman, in that he’ll help you in the R & AVG category rather than RBI and HR. Right now he’s set to be playing left-field, with Chad Tracy manning first but if Byrnes returns to form – Jackson will return to first.
16	138	Adam LaRoche	PIT	1B	6	16
…and now the polar opposite of Conor Jackson, Adam LaRoche. LaRoche is a notorious slow-starter, but I’m expecting bigger things this year. If he comes into camp ready to play, he’ll top 30 HR easily. He’s a pure power hitter and he’s improved his average from awful to respectable.
17	140	Carlos Delgado	NYM	1B	5	15
Carlos Delgado is old and boring, but he’ll produce. I’m not sure how many games he’ll get in, but planning for injury always comes back to bite you in the ass. If the robots say Carlos is going to hit 30HR and drive in 100 runs, who am I to argue. The batting average is always the first to go though, and maybe you should expect something in the .260-.265 range.
18	151	Pablo Sandoval	SF	1B	5	14	down
Sandoval hammered the ball last year, and like Atkins, you’ll probably be playing Pablo as your third baseman. However, he’s not a terrible option at first. His SLG percentage in limited action last year was almost .500. His BABIP was a smidgen high, so expect regression but Pablo can ball. His miniscule walk rate is concerning however. I’m not quite as high on Sandoval as some others.
19	154	James Loney	LAD	1B	4	14	up
Loney is Conor Jackson v2.0. When you look at Loney, you figure he’s gotta develop power at some point, but it’s proving to be quite the chore for James. My projection for last year was 20HR and a .300 AVG, and it’ll be the same thing this year.
20	162	Paul Konerko	CHW	1B	4	15	down
Even if Paul Konerko exceeds expectations, I’d still rather have anyone else on this list. There is reason to believe though, but I can’t bring myself to say it aloud so: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/konerkos-not-dead-yet
21	189	Jorge Cantu	FLA	3B/1B	2	13
If nothing else, Florida will be a blast to watch. The line-up is filled with boom or bust free swingers, and Cantu definitely fits that mold. Cantu had a career year last year, and it’s unlikely he’ll repeat but…if Gaby Sanchez or Dallas McPherson fall flat on their face, Cantu will play the full sched. 29 HR is probably out of the question, but anywhere between 20 and 25 seems completely reasonable. The RBI and R numbers should be solid.
22	190	Carlos Guillen	DET	3B/1B	2	13
Another guy you’re not going to play at first, but his versatility escalates his value. Guillen’s been aging well enough, and he’ll always hit for a solid average and score runs. A healthy Carlos Guillen is a steal even if he only hits 15 HR. It’s tough to find 180 RBI + R at this point, especially when you throw in a .290+ AVG
23	261	Casey Kotchman	ATL	1B	$-	11	up
I like the Casey Kotchman, and I like him a lot. He should flourish with a full-time gig in Atlanta. Atlanta’s currently rostering a pretty boring outfield, but the kids infront of Kotchman should get on base. He wont put up crazy power numbers, but he’ll hit ‘em where they aint. Expect solid R & RBI totals. Kotchman is probably the most likely of the bunch to add 10-15 HR to his totals, and leave your opponents scratching their heads.
24	269	Mike Jacobs	KC	1B	$-	10	down
Jacobs is a bit of a downer with the talent KC has waiting in the wings for the first base job. With that said, if you’re punting batting average – Jacobs is the man. If you can tolerate a sub-.250 BA, Jacobs is the man. If you’re in a HR only league, Jacobs is the man. There’s no reason why Jacobs shouldn’t be able to eclipse the 30-HR mark.
25	274	Billy Butler	KC	1B/DH	$-	10
Big-Fat-Billy-Butler did not have a good start to the 2008 campaign. The man is still a professional hitter, and I think the Royals get on base this year. He’ll have plenty-o-chances to knock ‘em in, and score some himself. Good call here, ESPN.
26	282	Todd Helton	COL	1B	$-	9	down
This is where we have to ask ourselves the question of whether or not Todd Helton lost “it”. Everything points to Helton still being a competant .300 hitter, that just had major injury issues in 2008. Helton’s back is shot, and 20 HR looks like his ceiling. Other stats are nice though, it’s painful to take Helton but at some point, you must.
27	286	Lyle Overbay	TOR	1B	$-	9	down
As someone who watched Lyle Overbay on a daily basis, I cannot give a fair opinion on him. He’s awful, though – just incase you were curious.
28	291	Hank Blalock	TEX	3B/1B	$-	9	down
Blalock’s interesting as a third baseman, and boring as a first baseman. Davis appears to have the first base job on lock-down, and Michael Young has the third-base gig. Elvis Andrus and Omar Vizquel are by no means “sure-things” but it looks like Blalock will be manning the DH spot. From the looks of it, he’ll have to share it with David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton or Andruw Jones.
29	292	Casey Blake	LAD	3B/1B	$-	9
Blake’s a solid contributor in a great line-up. He does everything well, but I have him below the next two guys.
30	293	Nick Swisher	NYY	1B/OF	$-	9	up
Swisher has to find a spot to play, but once he does he’ll be unstoppable. Swisher is a high OBP guy, who strikes out a good amount. He was also one of the unluckiest gentlemen in the majors last year. Expect a better batting average, more runs scored, more runs knocked in – Sleeper Supreme.
31	296	Jason Giambi	OAK	1B/DH	$-	9	up
Giambi returns to Oakland, and Oaklands put together a fairly solid team. They may just be the best team in the West. It’ll largely depend on the maturation of their prospect-laden starting staff. Anyways, Giambi should have a full-time gig at First/DH and has show he still has stuff left in the tank. Go ahead and draft him.
32	303	Ryan Garko	CLE	1B	$-	8	up
I’m back on the fence about Garko after feeling like he’d be a sleeper-steal this year. The Indians have been playing him out in left field, and LaPorta is looking solid. Even banking on the fact that Pronk can’t stay healthy, Garko’s job is still in jeopardy with V-Mart and LaPorta breathing down his neck.
33	329	Gaby Sanchez	FLA	1B	$-	7	up
Gaby Sanchez is a sexy rookie, and I’m surprised that ESPN has him all the way down here. Mike Jacobs proved that you can score a lot of runs, and knock in even more in that Florida line-up. If Sanchez is able maintain a job, he’ll be a steal. Especially at 329th overall.
34	336	Chad Tracy	ARI	1B	$-	7	down
Not a fan of Tracy, as I tend to think Eric Byrnes’ giganto contract will force him into a starting gig.
35	385	Chris Duncan	STL	1B/OF	$-	5
Duncan is interesting as we approach 400th overall. Skip Schumaker has been making a smooth enough transition to second base, leaving an outfield spot up for grabs. Smart money was on Colby Rasmus, but if he continues to struggle the Cardinals’ outfield may just be Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick.
36	423	Travis Ishikawa	SF	1B	$-	4
The Giants are begging Ishikawa for production, and the “kid” has impressed so far. I like him slightly less than Sanchez in a terrible Giants offense.
37	426	Nick Johnson	WAS	1B	$-	4
Johnson isn’t going to stay healthy, and most leagues don’t count OBP. In addition to this, the Nats’ first base/outfield situation is a mess. Johnson could be a steal but there’s a lot of risk here.
38	427	Ronnie Belliard	WAS	2B/3B/1B	$-	4
Belliard quietly put up a solid season last year, but I doubt he’ll find a place to play this year. Monitor him if someone goes down.
39	428	Cody Ransom	NYY	1B	$-	6	hrm
Too much depth in New York, but I guess someone has to play third base while A-Roid recovers.
40	434	Kevin Millar	TOR	1B	$-	5
The Jays could have done worse, and why Millar would be here and Overbay all the way up there boggles my mind.
41	479	Jeff Baker	COL	2B/1B	$-	2
He might snag AB once Helton goes down but for now it looks like the infield is full.
42	490	Wilson Betemit	CHW	3B/1B	$-	2
A solid safety net as Josh Fields is as untested as they come.
43	520	Daric Barton	OAK	1B	$-	2	up!
I’m not sure how ESPN got so down on this once-prized-prospect. Barton should produce well above the 2 dollar range.
44	530	Willy Aybar	TAM	3B/1B/DH	$-	1
Playing time is going to be the problem.
45	666	Chris Shelton	SEA	1B	$-	1
Seattle is bad, real bad.
46	729	Rich Aurilia	FA	1B	$-	$-
Seriously?
47	747	Michael Aubrey	CLE	1B	$-	$-
Interesting, but I’m not buying it this year.
48	782	Doug Mientkiewicz	LAD	1B	$-	$-
No Way In Hell.
49	785	John Bowker	SF	1B	$-	$-
This is why the Giants want Travis Ishikawa to succeed.
50	786	Aaron Boone	HOU	1B	$-	$-
Could provide some solid numbers if he finds a place to play.

What’s Missing?

Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year.  If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.

Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy.  Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.

The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel.  Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.

Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam.  Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year.  The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.

Nick Swisher

Top Fantasy Baseball Outfielders for 2009: Top 40? Top 60? Top 100? Who Knows.

There’s a lot of solid outfielders that can contribute to your fantasy squad.  Outfielders are like Starting Pitchers, there’s just too damn many of them. I tend to believe that ranking OF against each other is tough, as you have to choose a strategy and adjust your OF selections to fit that strategy.

The outfield positions will bring the most value to the table, and you’re liable to find the biggest steals here, as in most cases defense isn’t the largest priority.

Now, onto fantasy baseball’s 2009 top-whatever outfielders.

1. Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Grady Sizemore	634	33	38	101	90	0.268	0.374	0.502	0.75	0.876

Sizemore tops the list, at least for now. The only fault on Sizemore is his batting average, which he more than takes care of with a .374 OBP.  Most people are more than willing to live with a .275 average, as long as the other categories are amazing.  Sizemore is almost assured another 30/30 season, and his RBI and RUN totals should increase with an improved Indians offense.

If you’re planning on grabbing cheap steals later in the draft, which is a solid option, maybe Sizemore isn’t the choice for #1.  You’d probably be safer hedging your bets with a high BA guy like Hamilton, Holliday, or Manny as drafting a Carlos Gomez, Michael Bourn, or Jerry Owens tends to lead to a rather predictable drop in BA.

If you’re a believer in drafting well rounded fantasy players, then Sizemore is a great building block — but personally I find you pay more for the all around guys.

2. Manny Ramirez – Free Agent, Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Manny Ramirez	552	37	3	102	121	0.332	0.43	0.601	0.7	1.031

This could get ugly, but Manny Ramirez is one hell of a  baseball player.  It looks as though the Dodgers wont be giving many anything more than a year or two, so you can bet Manny will be giving his best.

If the Dodgers pay Manny too little, he’ll decide he doesn’t care for this whole baseball-game.  If they reward his idiocy with a long term contract, god help them because Manny will play when Manny wants to play.

With that said, Manny Ramirez isn’t going to run but everything else is the picture of perfection. In a potent Dodgers line-up his R and RBI totals should be terrific.  Manny’s batting average can fix a lot of high risk/reward guys and gives you a terrific safety net.

If Manny actually plays for the Dodgers, he’ll be better than Braun or Hamilton. If Manny and Boras decide to keep shitting the bed, who knows how far he’ll drop.

3. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Braun	611	37	14	92	106	0.285	0.335	0.553	0.33	0.888

Ryan Braun is a solid pick here, and he’s average across the board when you compare him to the elite guys. He’ll hit somewhere around 35HR, and steal somewhere around 10-15 bases. Braun’s got the potential to steal up to about 20 bases, but who knows if he’ll run that much.

The .285 average, and a combined 200 runs and rbi make a solid outfielder. Braun’s still very young and he’ll continue to improve so long as he maintains his plate discipline.

4. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Josh Hamilton	624	32	9	98	130	0.304	0.371	0.53	0.51	0.901

Hamilton was a steal last year, and now he’s ranked as the fourth best outfielder.  Who know’s if the wheels with just fall off, but I suppose you have to look at Hamilton in the same light as a productive sophomore.

There’s no sophomore slump in sight, and you can place a bit more confidence in his abilities than you would a normal rookie.

Hamilton proved to be an early season RBI machine, and Texas’ line-up is quite the machine. A 300 average to go with 35 HR, and ridiculous RBI numbers seem like a solid bet.

A .5 BB/K ratio should be enough to keep your doubts at bay.  Look for Hamilton to be productive throughout the season, and there’s no reason to expect a return to past-drug-addicted-form.

5. Matt Holliday – Oakland Athletics

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Matt Holliday	539	25	28	107	88	0.321	0.409	0.538	0.71	0.947

Matt Holliday’s numbers last year were terrific for his 539 AB, however without the trade to Oakland — things could change.

There was a recent article on fangraphs examining whether or not Holliday’s stolen base numbers would drop with the switch to Billy Beane’s Money-Ball loving style, and the answer was no. If Holliday continues to be successful stealing bases, the Athletics will let him run.

Aside from that, Holliday is going to an extreme pitchers park and leaving Coors’ field.  Problem.  Holliday is also switching leagues, and may take a while to adjust to American League pitching. Problem.

With that said, Holliday is a great ball player with a great eye.  He’ll still produce solid HR numbers, but most of his power will translate to gappers and extra-base hits.  This is good news for his RBI totals.

Since the departure of Giambi, the A’s really haven’t had anyone to knock in the trillions of guys they get on base with walks.  Now, they have that guy in Holliday to go along with the return of Jason Giambi.  Good news for A’s fans, Good news for Holliday owners.

6. Carlos Beltran – New York Mets

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Beltran	606	27	25	116	112	0.284	0.376	0.5	0.96	0.876

Beltran’s a solid player, and you could rank him as high as second in this list. The top-tier outfielders really tend to blend together, and you should draft one based on your strategy in the later rounds rather than who you think will perform best.  Beltran and Braun tend to be guys that’ll just contribute across the board, so if you’re solely drafting value: these are your guys.

Rarely will you win a draft with your first or second round pick, so it may be wise to play the safest bet on the board which favours Beltran.  Beltran’s 2005 mid-life crisis seems like eons ago, and he’s become a solid bet for 30/30 each and every year. While he’s never managed to get there as a member of the Mets; It’s a fair assumption to say his HR and SB will add up to around 60.

There appears to be a slight decline in Beltran’s power, but 30HR seems to be about the standard mark for prediction models.

…and then the sure things ended.

7. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
B.J. Upton	531	9	44	85	67	0.273	0.383	0.401	0.72	0.784

Upton’s numbers are enticing when you see how many at-bats he managed.  Maybe injuries continue to plague Upton, but more likely he’ll Man-Up and get it done.

The SLG percentage is worrisome for someone who was supposed to have it all, but as with many young players — he’ll grow into it.  All of the other indicators are there, and if you’re looking for a little bit of risk with a lot of upside look no further.

Upton could easily hit 50 steals to go along with 20 HR.  Lets just hope he stays healthy.

8. Alfonso Soriano

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alfonso Soriano	453	29	19	76	75	0.28	0.344	0.532	0.42	0.876

Everything looks good in Soriano land, other than the 453 AB.  Soriano is another guy who’s got a shot at going 30/30 but he’s far from a sure thing.  Soriano should be higher, especially if he finds his swing early in the season.

Playing in a stacked Cubs line-up keeps the risk to a minimum.  Basically, we’ve got ourselves another referendum on whether or not Alfonso Soriano can stay healthy.

9. Carlos Quentin – Chicago White Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Quentin	480	36	7	96	100	0.288	0.394	0.571	0.83	0.965

There comes a time in every can’t miss prospects life, where he’s just got ball the fuck out.  Carlos Quentin decides last year was that time.  If not for an injury that annoyed the hell out of fantasy owners enjoying the ride: Carlos Quentin would have been your AL MVP.

10. Jason Bay – Boston Red Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jason Bay	577	31	10	111	101	0.286	0.373	0.522	0.59	0.895

Commence operation over-valued. We have lift-off.  I’ve yet to play in a fantasy league where a Red Sox player is drafted ’round ’bout where they should go.  Jason Bay is a stellar talent, but odds are he’ll go too high.

If Bay doesn’t go in the first round, he’ll contribute across the board. So much so that his R and RBI totals will just look dandy with a health Red Sox line-up surrounding him for an entire year.

11. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Matt Kemp	606	18	35	93	76	0.29	0.34	0.459	0.3	0.799

It’s fun to predict improvement for absolutely no reason other than a gut feeling and the time-tested, but useless, mantra: “He’ll get better with age”.

Matt Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio isn’t pretty and his OBP of .340 isn’t all that sexy when you consider he’s a .290 hitter.

But Kemp’s young, and he’s definitely got a whole-hella lot of upside.  His HR should be closer to his steals this year. Whether or not that means his HR go up or his steals come down, is up to you.

12. Carlos Lee – Houston Astros

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Lee	436	28	4	61	100	0.314	0.368	0.569	0.76	0.937

Lee’s going to be a steal, wherever you draft him.  While throwing together this list, I even forgot about his all around awesomeness.

A .937 OPS will get it done, and done well. 28 HR in 436 AB also tends to get it done.  After so many years of 600+ AB, Bill James has him the highest at 573 AB for the 2009.  If Carlos returns to form and tops 600 AB, he’ll be a top 3 or 4 OF and probably put up Josh Hamilton type numbers.

Just keep an eye on Carlos Lee’s health and definitely mark him down in your under-ranked superstar category.

13. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Markakis	595	20	10	106	87	0.306	0.406	0.491	0.88	0.897

Nick Markakis is another guy with all-world talent, who can smash the shit out of the baseball if he chooses that option.

With an OBP of over .400 in 2008, he’s primed for a break out year — and I do mean breakout.  I have Markakis putting up stellar numbers in an Orioles offense that’ll prove its worth.  The Orioles seem to have all the pieces required to put together a solid season on offense.

Nick Markakis should hit 30 HR and drive in a bundle.  Maybe I’ll move Markakis up at some point.

…and now onto the mess that is stolen bases

14. Jacoby Elsbury – Boston Red Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jacoby Ellsbury	554	9	50	98	47	0.28	0.336	0.394	0.51	0.729

Ellsbury can boogy, but there’s no reason to think that he’ll improve dramatically on his HR numbers. Somewhere between 8 and 13 HR for the 2009 season seems about right, but you’re not buying Ellsbury based on HR.

Ellsbury’s stolen base numbers should float somewhere in the high-forties to low-fifties, and his runs scored should improve.

15. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ichiro Suzuki	686	6	43	103	42	0.31	0.361	0.386	0.78	0.747

Everything that Ichiro can control will remain consistent with career numbers, but I haven’t the slightest clue whom Ichiro Suzuki is going to drive in or who’s going to knock him in.

Maybe this is the year that Ichiro says screw it, and knocks out 20 HR.  He’s definitely got the power, but I’d expect a downturn in numbers not an upswing.

16. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Shane Victorino	570	14	36	102	58	0.293	0.352	0.447	0.65	0.799

A few more HR than Ichiro and a few less steals.  The BA isn’t going to top .300 but Victorino is a solid player, that’ll greatly benefit  from  a Jimmy Rollins comeback-year.

If Victorino can get off to a better start than 2008, he’ll have a terrific year and more than likely be a top tier-2 outfielder.

…and now back to reality

17. Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Vladimir Guerrero	541	27	5	85	91	0.303	0.365	0.521	0.66	0.886

How the mighty have fallen, or aged, or have just been plagued by a back-pain induced slump. 150 Games seems about right, which should bring Guerrero closer to the 30 HR, 100 R mark than he was last year.

Everything else should be the Guerrero you’ve come to expect.  About 110 RBI, and a .310 batting average.  There’s a good amount of risk that comes with Guerrero, but there’s also an insane amount of reward.

The benefit of rostering Guerrero, is you’ll generally know ahead of time when he’s getting a day off.

18. Magglio Ordonez – Detroit Tigers

This isn’t annoying. I type for 2 hours only to have my data erased by WordPress. God love it.  Remember when Magglio hit .363 and drove in 130-something runs?  How about we average the last two years of his career and stick him here.  The Detroit Tigers will be better.

19. Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays

Remember when Carl Crawford was a first round pick in almost every league? He’s still that good.  2008 was a down-year but he’ll fix that quick-fast.

20. Curtis Granderson – Detroit Tigers

Remember when everyone talked about Granderson being the only guy to hit x number of doubles, triples, and homers..  ever?  Well he started last year like crap, and just managed to be average for the majority of the year.  He’ll score a lot of runs, and come pretty close to the 25+ bases he stole 2 years ago.

21. Alex Rios – Toronto Blue Jays

Remember how the scouts said Alexi Rios was a 4.5 tool player, and that he should develop power to go with his massive frame? Well, instead of improving on his 24 HR season, he regressed but managed to steal 30+ bases.  Screwy, huh?

22. Adam Dunn – Free Agent

Dunn’s a top 10 OF if your league uses OBP instead of average. Dunn’s also a great choice if you decide to go ahead and punt average.  However, if you’re just playing it based on value you’re going to need 2 guys to cancel out the potential for another .240 season from Dunn. The upside is he only registers 500 AB, making that .240 a bit more tolerable.

23. Corey Hart – Milwaukee Brewers

I hate great white hopes, especially fast ones.  Hart Swings at everything and it’s annoying, but he gets the job done none the less. He’s got a boat-load of upside and he’ll be cashing in on that upside sooner rather than later.

24. Raul Ibanez – Philadelphia Phillies

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Raul Ibanez	635	23	2	85	110	0.293	0.358	0.479	0.58	0.837

Ibanez is undervalued each and every year, and yet he produces each and every year.  This may be a reach, but the switch to Citizens Bank Ballpark should do more than offset the league switch.  Maybe you’re best bet is to trade for Ibanez a month into the season before he’s found his grove.

Either way, in that line-up Ibanez is going to be dangerous. Some of his doubles, will turn into homers as soon as he realize he’s no longer in baseball hell.

25. Bobby Abreu – Free Agent

Where does he land? I dont know. Rumors have him going to the south side of Chicago.  I wouldn’t expect 20/20 but this old guy can still boogy.

26. Jermaine Dye – Chicago White Sox

An oldy but a goody! Expect another slight decline in Dye’s numbers

27. Nate McLouth – Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m not sure if he’ll repeat the power numbers, but bad teams seem to steal.  I’m just not sure if he can repeat.

28. Ryan Ludwick – St. Louis Cardinals

Same holds true for Ludwick.  Batting between Pujols and Glaus will make even the worst power-hitter viable.  With Glaus out, who know’s what kind of pitches Ludwick will see in 2009.

29. Johnny Damon – New York Yankees

Will Johnny Damon stay healthy in a massively crowded Yankees outfield / designated hitter mess? That is the question.

30. Torii Hunter – Anaheim Angels

He just keeps producing.  In 6 years, this is what Chris Young will be.

31. Pat Burrell – Tampa Bay Rays

A change of scenery should be nice for Burrell. Hopefully he can break his streak of being down-right awful after posting a great season.

32. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks

Speed, Power, everything you look for in a young kid.  Unfortunately he has no eye, which terrifies most of the younger Diamondback fans.

33. Brad Hawpe – Colorado Rockies

Improved on his splits, and has a boat-load of power.  Could finally put it together?

34. Xavier Nady – New York Yankees

Another piece of the crowded Yankees outfield.  If there is one thing that’s certain in life, it’s that Xavier Nady will have a ridiculous first month and a half of the season.

35. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros

Still young enough to remember what it’s like to hit above .300 with power and speed.

36. Lastings Milledge – Washington Nationals

Breakthrough year? Yes please.  I like each and every part of this Nationals outfield, with Milledge leading the way.

37. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds

When you’re universally considered one of the top prospects in baseball, you’re normally pretty good.  Bruce had a mediocre 2008 after a torrid start to the season.  Temper your enthusiasm, but he’ll be great as soon as this year.

38. Jack Cust – Oakland Athletics

Power o’ Plenty.  With the amount of low-average guys out there, i’m starting to think that this may be the perfect year to punt AVG.

39. Nick Swisher – New York Yankees

With that said, if you’re going to go ahead and punt average go ahead and pick Nick.  Swisher’s skill-set remained the same, but he got very very unlucky.  He’ll score a lot of runs, and get on-base a tonne.

40. Eric Byrnes – Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks outfield situation is pretty confusing, but when Byrnes plays he’s a difference maker.  Since he’s already injured both his left and right hamstring, there’s nothing left for him to hurt — right?

41. Jason Werth – Philadelphia Phillies

I’m a huge Jason Werth fan, and i’m hoping he gets the lions share of the AB in right field.  Geoff Jenkins is nice, but he isn’t a body double for “The Edge”.

42. Mike Cameron – Milwaukee Brewers

Another low-average guy that you may just want to own. He hit 25 HR and stole 17 Bases in only a 140 games last year.  If you can deal / cope with the sure-fire sub-.250 average, you’ve got yourself a steal.

43. Vernon Wells – Toronto Blue Jays

Vernon was plagued by injuries, again.  He wont run, because he’s always hurt.  He wont hit long bombs, because he’s already gettin’ paid.  One of the most overpaid, overvalued, plays in the game finally sings a redemption song. Maybe he gets back to topping 30HR and 15SB.

44. Milton Bradley – Chicago Cubs

An OPS machine, that has a temper. Where you value him depends largely upon how many games you think he’ll play.  I cannot make that decision for you, but I’m banking on 130 G.

45. Shin-Soo Choo – Cleveland Indians

The BABIP is ridiculous, which leads to all his other stats being stupid silly.  The hype-machine is hungry,  so  I shall feed it.

46. Jose Guillen – Kansas City Royals

I’ve got a soft-spot in my heart for this former top-prospect.  Mainly because he can do absolutely everything you’d want from an outfielder. Guillen never walks, and he swings for the fences.  If Guillen can keep his BA around the .290 range — he’s good to go.  Personally, I’m willing to admit that I have Guillen rated too high, but he does hit 25 HR and drive in almost 100 every year.

47. Elijah Dukes – Washington Nationals

My most favouritest sleeper out there.  Dukes can ball, but he’s got a whole lot of Guillen in him.  If he can stay on the field, and out of stank-ass cooters, he’ll have a break-out year.

48. Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins

Here we go again with another low-average gentleman.  Gomez is quick-fast and will steal you 40 bases in 2009.  He’s just gotta keep that average above .25o become a very useful cog.

49. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks

He’s a year away, but he could put up solid numbers through the 2009 season.  As mentioned earlier, the Diamondbacks situation is confusing and I’m not sure how many .250 hitters they plan on rostering.  There’s really no harm in taking a shot on Upton at this point because if he hits, he’s really going to hit.

50. Hideki Matsui – New York Yankees

The Yankees DH. ‘Nuff said.

51. Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins

Stolen from the Tigers, Cameron Maybin’s got a tonne of athletic ability but no hitters eye in sight. If he can retain the starting field gig for the entire year, 40 SB and 20 HR could be a possibility.  Maybe a pipe dream.  Hell, everyone’s gotta take some risks.

52. Andre Ethier – Los Angeles Dodgers

Can hit.  Not quite sure how the Dodgers situation will play out, but it seems as though Ethier always finds a way to work himself into the line-up.  You could do worse.

53. Delmon Young – Minnesota Twins

Delmon lost his power stroke and started hitting copious amounts of ground-balls.  He’s still a Grade-A hunk of beef and he’s got muscles on-top of muscles, but somethings off.  If Delmon realizes he’s awesome, the improvement wont come in baby-steps. It’ll come in giant, 30HR season type leaps.

54. J.D Drew – Boston Red Sox

Great line-up, Can’t stay healthy.

55. Rick Ankiel – St. Louis Cardinals

Ankiel is making a nice transition, but when is this party going to end.  He should be the one benefiting from the loss of Glaus, and I woudln’t be surprised to see Ankiels numbers go up and Ludwicks dip.

56. Travis Snider – Toronto Blue Jays

Far too high, but the potential is crazy nutty.  In case you haven’t noticed, I’m a Jays season ticket holder who <3s the Travis Snider.

57. Willy Taveras – Cincinnati Reds

Run Willy Run.  He’ll score a good amount of runs in the Cincinnati line-up and he’ll steal just as many bases as you’d expect. I expect 55.

58. David Murphy – Texas Rangers

I take this back, I didn’t mean it.

59. Adam Jones – Baltimore Orioles

Jones should improve and Orioles fans can continue mocking Mariners fans.  God  what a terrible trade.

60. Jeremy Hermida – Florida Marlins

When your swing is as sweet as Hermida’s you cant be this awful. Damnit, nutsac stop striking out.

61. Josh Willingham – Washington Nationals

The final piece of the Nationals OF should knock in the other two pieces.  Maybe Willingham can still play Catcher?

62. Coco Crisp – Kansas City Royals

He should steal, and he can still play.  I like the Royals quite a bit this year. They shoudl be fun to watch.

63. Jeff Francoeur – Atlanta Braves

Hrm.  Can Francoeur be this bad?  He coudln’t hit the broad side of a barn last year.  All signs point to yes, he can be this bad.  I have a hunch he’ll break out, but do you have a hunch?

64. Michael Bourn – Houston Astros

He’ll steal bases and improve with the stick. If you’ve sacraficed steals early in order to nail down a solid BA, it’s now time to grab a guy like Bourn.

65. Juan Pierre – Los Angeles Dodgers

This is a tentative agreement between me and Juan Pierre assuming that Manny isn’t signed.  If Pierre plays, he’ll get on base with cheap little singles and then proceed to steal.

66. Kosuke Fukudome – Chicago Cubs

Pitchers adapted to him, and now it’s his turn to adapt to the pitching.  He should be solid, I promise you.  If you’re board take a look at his month by month BABIP, it’s wacko.

67. Jason Kubel – Minnesota Twins

The Kubes. I draft this scrub every year, but not this year.  Which means Kubel goes for 30 HR and a .285 average.

68. Chris Dickerson – Cincinnati Reds

Well, he started to impress me, and then stopped. Keep an eye on the situation over in Cincinnati, it could get interesting.

69. Adam Lind – Toronto Blue Jays

Realistically, Lind and Snider should be switched on this list.  But we don’t deal in realism. Lind should be in for a super-solid season, and he’ll be a steal come draft day.

…and there comes a time where you decide whether or not you want someone with a starting gig for an entire season or crazy-awesome potential.

70. David DeJesus – Kansas City Royals

71. Cody Ross – Florida Marlins

72. Matt Joyce – Tampa Bay Rays

73. Randy Winn – San Francisco Giants

74. Felix Pie – Baltimore Orioles

75. Jerry Owens- Chicago White Sox

76. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies

77. Michael Cuddyer – Minnesota Twins

78. Daniel Murphy – New York Mets

79. Ryan Church – New York Mets

80. Melky Cabrera – New York Yankees

81. Marcus Thames – Detroit Tigers

82. Nelson Cruz – Texas Rangers

83. Fred Lewis – San Francisco Giants

84. Juan Rivera – Anaheim Angels

85. Denard Span – Minnesota Twins

86. Chase Headley – San Diego Padres

87. Ryan Spilborghs – Colorado Rockies

88. Jerry Hairston Jr. – Cincinnati Reds

89. Colby Rasmus – St Louis Cardinals

90. Franklin Gutierrez – Seattle Mariners

91. Ben Francisco – Cleveland Indians

92. Matt LaPorta – Cleveland Indians

93. Steven Pearce – Pittsburgh Pirates

94. Nyjer Morgan – Pittsburgh Pirates

95. Seth Smith – Colorado Rockies

96. Luke Scott – Baltimore Orioles

97. Aaron Rowand – San Francisco Giants

98. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates

99. Brian Giles – San Diego Padres

100. The Entire Oakland A’s outfield, ugh. Seriously: Davis, Patterson, Sweeney, Buck, and Cunningham.

Keep an eye on…

101. Ryan Freel – Baltimore Orioles

102. Josh Anderson – Atlanta Braves

103. Eric Hinske – Pittsburgh Pirates

104. Jason Heyward (wishfull thinking) – Atlanta Braves

105. Skip Schumaker – St. Louis Cardinals

106. Mark Teahan – Kansas City Royals

107. Gary Matthews Jr – Anaheim Angels

108.  Andruw Jones – Parts Unknown

Nick Swisher

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers By Team

Fantasy Baseball has its share of guys drafted in the late rounds, or picked up for a dollar that really pan out.  You’re generally not going to get anyone who absolutely kills it for a buck, or in the last round, unless you’re in a 10-12 team default league.  But here are some guy’s that’ll fill in nicely.

Minor Leaguers / Hot Prospects will have their own list, so they are excluded from this one.

Position Players

Anaheim Angels

Kendry Morales (1b) came over from Cuba in 2005 with a boatload of hype, and then proceeded to become spectacularly average.  The Fantasy World was abuzz just a few years ago about the Angels’ corner infielders, Dallas McPherson and Kendry Morales.  Then, they just stopped maturing, and when called up couldn’t produce.  None the less, Morales has had an incredible winterball season and obviously the talent is there.  Power hitting first basemen aren’t going to be gotten for a buck, but he’ll be cheaper come draft day.  Hopefully the Angels stay with Morales and resist the temptation to sign a first baseman.  Morales will produce and 25HR, 85RBI, 75R, and a .270 AVG seems reasonable.

Houston Astros

J.R. Towles (C) came into last year as the second hot catching prospect behind Soto. While Soto excelled as a major league backstop, Towles really shit the bed.  It Wouldn’t be out of the question to see Towles hit 15-20 HR, and Bill James has him hitting 17HR. Keep an eye on the starting Catcher’s job as Toby Hall was recently brought in to clean up the mess if Towles struggled.

Oakland Athletics

There’s going to be some value here, the problem is there are a lot of players around the same talent level fighting for jobs.

Ryan Sweeney (CF) wins the starting CF job, and has the possibility of going 15HR, 15SB.

Travis Buck (RF) has a tonne of talent, and flopped horribly last year.  He’s a top-tier young player that should develop power to go along with his solid batting eye.  As with all the stupid Athletics — Buck walks a lot and strikes out more.

Eric Patterson’s (OF /2B) AAA averages of .300+ have not translated well to the big leagues.  The Athletics acquired Patterson in the Harden deal, and will eventually end up with a solid player.  He’s got speed and, above all, second base eligibility.  If the Athletics can find a place for Patterson, he’ll be worth the dollar or two you’ll have to spend on him. His MLB strike-out rate isn’t a pretty sight though, so lets just hope he can drop it below 20%.

Daric Barton (1B) is yet another On Base Machine in the Oakland Athletics system.  He hit .347 in 84 PA in 2007, and then proceeded to stink up the joint (AAA and MLB) in 2008. Barton should have the inside gig on the first base job, with Jason Giambi as the DH.  If he continues to stink it up though; Giambi will move to first with Cust to DH which opens up the outfield for the two names above (Patterson or Buck).

Toronto Blue Jays

Travis Snider (OF / 1B) probably wont come as cheap as I’d like, but he should put up a solid rookie/sophmore season.  He came up for a cup of coffee in 2008, and impressed.  Generally listed among everyones top 10 MLB prospects, Snider is only 21 and has flown through the Jays system.  In limited action in 2008, he hit .300 with a couple dingers. There’s always the possibility the Jays start Snider off in the minors and keep him there for a good chunk, to save cash in the long run.  If Snider can keep ahold of the starting gig for the entire season, 20 HR aren’t out of the question.

While Snider may have more future potential, Adam Lind (OF) looks primed for a solid and productive 2009 campaign.  The Jays babied Lind quite a bit as he was coming through the system, and many Jays fans wanted Lind to stick with the big club a year earlier than he did.  Adam Lind has a realistic shot of hitting between .290 and .305 and, while his power numbers are sick-awesome, he should get to 20-25 HR on the season.  Lind brings incredible value to the table, and should be cheap come draft day.

Atlanta Braves

Josh Anderson(CF) will find a place to play in 2009, he’s gots-ta.  Anderson has quick-fast feet and should steal plenty of bases, cheaply.  He’ll hopefully get on-base somewhere between 33-35 percent of the time and could steal 35-40 bases this year if given the chance. Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones sit ahead of him, both of which have hopes and dreams of their own.  Anderson should be able to snake the starting CF job away from Blanco.  Anderson’s one of my favourites going into the season.

Martin Prado (UTIL) is a second baseman by trade, but has filled in for Chipper Jones and will continue to fill in at third whenever Jones goes down.  While Prado doesn’t have a starting gig, he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.  His .320 batting average last year was a result of a silly-stupid .360 BABIP but he appears to be a legitimate .290 – .300 hitter with not much else.  He gets on base, and has a good LD%.

Casey Kotchman will outperform his value, but by no means is he a sleeper.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bill Hall (3B) hit 290 in 2005, and everything was looking up. Then his strike out rates went as follows, presented with the corresponding averages: 2005 20 K%, .291  AVG, 2006 30 K%, .270 AVG, 2007 28 K%, .254 AVG, 2008 31 K%, .225 AVG.  To expect things from Hall is nutty, but if he can just manage to keep that bloody K percentage down to even 23-25%, he’ll be useful.

Anyone know if Alcides Escobar can play a solid third-base?

St. Louis Cardinals

Khalil Greene (SS). I like Greene this year, and I’m crazy for it.  It’s one of those doesn’t make sense gut feelings, that will either win you or lose you a fantasy league. Maybe he hits .260 and pulls his typical week with 5 HR, 4 Weeks with 0 HR type season.

David Freese (3B) went from three years of high and low A ball with the Padres to killing in triple A with the Cardinals.  Something smells fishy, but he’s listed as the guy behind Glaus.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Fontenot (2B) is the closest thing to a sleeper on this team, and who knows if he’ll out-perform his value.  He deserves to start over Aaron Miles, but weird shit happens in the windy city.  Keep an eye on this little situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Felipe Lopez (2B) will be filling the void at second left by Orlando Hudson, the O-Dog. I’m pretty high on Lopez, but he’s got some attitude issues.  Lopez probably makes my list of top 10 sleepers going into 2009. He should get down to business and put up some incredibly solid numbers.  He’s capable of batting .290 and stealing 30 or more bases, which cant be said for the other guys Melvin might think of batting atop the order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lopez occupy the 1 or 2 hole, and reap the rewards of a solid Arizona Diamondbacks line-up.

Lopez played 13 G at SS, 13 G at 3B, 17 G in the OF, and 101 at 2B.  Check your league settings because Lopez could be the ultimate fill-in.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Do the Dodgers get a deal done for Manny Ramirez?  If not Juan Pierre (OF) might become a bit more attractive with his huge contract floating around. However, Pierre’s name may add a couple bucks to his actual price tag, which you might care to avoid. 40 SB from someone who wont kill your batting average is always nice though.

Blake DeWitt (2B / 3B) has the inside line on the second base job over Mark Loretta.  He doesn’t bring anything particularly sexy to the table, but the kid can play.  The second and third eligibility helps.  All and all nothing overwhelming in Dodger-land.

San Francisco Giants

Lots of Fun in Giants camp! Pablo Sandoval (3B, 1B, C) is everyones favorite sleeper for the entirty of Fantasy Baseball for 2009.  He’s not a sleeper anymore, but the kid can play and did play 11 games at Catcher, 12 at third base, and 17 at first.  It looks like he’ll be playing third this year, but check your league settings.  Nothing is more annoying than finding out someone isn’t eligible for a position.  If he’s eligible for catcher in your league, snatch him the hell up.

Emmanuel Burriss (SS / 2B) should win the job over Kelly Frandsen, maybe.  Along with Burriss, Eugenio Velez (2B) has a shot of snagging that opening.  Velez will bring you ridiculous SB, and could be solid but is going to have issues matching Burriss defensively.  It’ll be itneresting to see how this plays out, as both Burriss and Velez should be able to get you a bunch of SB, assuming they win the job.

Cleveland Indians

Matt Laporta (OF / 1B) will go with the rookie rankings but hopefully he plays this year for the big club.

The Indians have quite a few guys with room for improvement and maturity, yet none of them really classify as sleepers. Shin-Soo Choo (OF / RF) looks darn good and had quite the season in just under 100 games for the tribe last year. The .309 BA is nice, but the .373 BABIP is ridiculous. His Line Drive percentage is nice and pretty above 20%, but .373 is ridiculous.  He got lucky, but he can still go and hit 20+ HR for the tribe this year, and he does still have some speed in the tank (enough for 10SB? Maybe)

Keep an eye on Ben Francisco as well, the other corner outfielder.

The Entire Indians Infield (DeRosa, Cabrera, Peralta, and Garko) have the ability to eclipse their dollar value / draft round, in 2009.  Not sleepers, but worth a look. I’m especially high on Cabrera and Garko, as the other two have gotten their fair share of pre-season hype.

Seattle Mariners

What a waste-land.  I’m not a fan of the Mariners, at all. Everytime they come to Toronto, hoards of japanese people come out and scream their faces off at Kenji Johjima and Ichiro Suzuki.  They’re like rockstars, and the 16-22 year old Japanese girls that scream for them act like their white peers at an All American Rejects concert.

Jeff Clement (C) isn’t a sleeper, but he should outperform his draft stock.

Florida Marlins

Much better, the Florida Marlins have some sleepers. Jeremy Hermida (RF) has all the tools to be great, not just good — but GREAT.  Most fantasy owners get pissed off when they read about sleepers for a couple years, and they just never pan out. Hermida falls into this group, the post hype sleeper group. 2008′s 28 percent strike-out rate is a weeeeeeeee bit concerning, but sometimes you just gotta trust your eyes and go with that sweet sweet swing.

Cameron Maybin (OF) should be good, not quite yet though — He’ll be hanging out with LaPorta in the “rookies who can make a difference” room.

John Baker (C), Oh how I like thee.  His outlook looks good, and he’ll be great value in the last round or two of your draft — If he flops, which he could well do, just cut bait.  Otherwise, I’m fixin’ on predictin’ 350-400 AB to go with 15 HR

Dallas McPherson (3B) should be good but the hype machine is starting it’s engines, and with the ridiculous amount of homers he’s put up in the Minors the past couple years — the experts are remembering just how much they LOVED McPherson 5 years ago.

New York Mets

The Mets’ outfield other than Beltran looks to have a good bit of talent floating around it. I’m generally against listing sleepers from big market teams, as ESPN tends to showcase the hell out of them but Ryan Church (OF) has been solid, but not spectacular for sometime now, and other than a broken brain looks good. With Church, you might get 20 HR, a handful of steals, and a guarenteed .275 average.  He’s quite serviceable in deeper leagues. The 20-25% K rate is concerning, but if he’s adding power while doing it — I’ll take it.

Daniel Murphy (OF / 2B? / 3b?) could make a big impact in fantasy circles this year. His .386 BABIP last year inflated his stats, but he’s still only 24 years old. Murphy can play just about anywhere, but will start the season qualifying only as an OF.  There’s a chance with the right set of circumstances that he snags eligibility at 2B and/or 3B.  If he comes out of camp as the starting second baseman, he’s value is going to be solid as all hell. His LD rate was a stupid-silly 33 percent last year, which makes that .386 BABIP not so ridiculous and while his K rate was 20+ percent last year — he should drop it down below 20 (if minor league stats have any influence whatsoever on MLB stats). If Murphy can steal 10 bases, which he’s more than capable of, he’ll be useful in all but the most shallow of leagues. If you consider him a sleeper, Murphy is top 5.

Jeremy Reed (OF) came over from Seattle, and the talent’s there.  He hasn’t managed to put it together, and his top-prospect status is long gone. Maybe he’ll react well to being out of Seattle and begin putting up the numbers once expected of him.

Washington Nationals

Their outfield is stacked with former top prospects, absolutely stacked.  I’m not sure if it’ll ever gell considering the attitude that’s out there but:

Lastings Milledge (OF) was the chosen one in the Mets farm system for a few years before coming over to the Nats.  As with all New York prospects, the great ones are blown up way too big, and the smaller ones get lost in the shadows to become great players. Milledge does have the talent though, as he can easily steal 25 bases to go along with his developing power.  Last Years 14 HR season should be improved upon, actually all of his numbers should be improved upon. If he can keep his LD rate above 20, and his K rate below it — he could outperform the massive hype surrounding him..lets hope.  He’s not a one dollar sleeper, and you’ll have to pay to get him but the potential is there.

Elijah Dukes (RF / OF) has more power than Milledge, but also has more issues.  If Dukes has 15 wives and each wife has 2 children, and each child has 3 Daddies,  how many children is Dukes really the father of? Dukes has all the talent in the world and if everything goes well he could smash his draft day value. Read this carefully: Elijah Dukes could reasonably go 30HR and 30SB, with a .275BA given he reaches about 600PA.

Josh Willingham (LF / OF) could get to 25 HR pretty easily, but keep in mind his BA isn’t pretty and he strikes out a hella-lot.

Jesus Flores (C) could be one to keep an eye on, but he’s not particularly a sleeper.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore and Mike Flanagan are doing a terrific job building their organization the right way — by fleecing other teams of their young talent.

Matt Weiters (C) cannot possibly be considered a sleeper, and he’ll join Laporta, Maybin, and Escobar in the Rookie Category.

Even Adam Jones (CF / OF), one of the nicest guys in baseball, isn’t particularly a sleeper.  He’ll improve upon his numbers of last year, and he’s a super prospect but you’ll probably have to pay some cash money to get him.  Jones has 20 HR pop in his bat as soon as this year, and on a team that loves to just go out and have fun — he should be fun to watch.  Throw in 10-15SB, and you’ve got yourself a ballplayer.

Felix Pie (LF / OF) will more than likely be a second half sleeper.  It may be worth it to draft him, but I’d wait a few months before grabbing him.  If your league is shallow, feel free to grab the speedy young OF whom the Cubs gave the Orioles for essentially nothing.  If he’s allowed to run free, expect a cheap source of stolen bases.

San Diego Padres

I’m not sure where I stand on Chase Headley (OF / 3B?). The Kid has all of the talent in the world, but is it too soon? Chase strikes out too damn much, 31.4% K Rate! but when he does hit the ball he’s a line-drive machine, 25% LD! The Homers aren’t there, but he’ll grow into it eventually — He’s a sleeper, but not one i’d like to have on my team unless I’ve got balls of steel. If Kouzmanoff gets hurt and Headley can move to third, we’ve got a whole new ball-game.

Edgar Gonzalez (2B) might be worth a look if not for that pesky David Eckstein.

Philadelphia Phillies

World Champs don’t produce sleepers.

Raul Ibanez (OF) might be worth a long, long, look though.  He’s no world champ — but he is a .290 hitter with power, who’s numbers have been skewed by Seattle’s awful ballpark.

Who know’s how he’ll adjust to NL pitching after 10 years in the AL, but he’s worth a very very long look.  He wont come for a buck, but i bet he outperforms his cost by at least 3 to 5 dollars.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Rookie Outfielders Andrew McCutchen (OF), Steve Pearce(OF), Jose Tabata(OF) could all make a difference in your fantasy league this year depending on its size.  They’re getting hucked into the Rookie category. I was thinking of putting Pearce here, but it’s easier to put him with the other two star prospects.

Really only Andy LaRoche (3B) sticks out as someone I’d genuinely like to have on my roster.  While Freddy Sanchez (2B) could put up a solid batting average, he’s too hit or miss.

Andy’s brother Adam LaRoche (1B) is primed for a breakout year but is in no way a sleeper.

Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus (SS) can boogey, and he’s won the starting shortstop gig. The Rangers were wise to sign Omar Vizquel (SS) just incase.  Andrus gets thrown in with the other rookies later, to a lesser extent.

Anyone in the Texas Line-Up should produce solid numbers, as Arlington is a  bloody Band-Box.

Take David Murphy (OF) if he takes the LF job, and all signs point to yessir — he’ll put up stellar numbers.

Chris Davis (1B / 3B) lost his position as a sleeper the day he was born, so please dont ask.

Tampa Bay Rays

I cant seem to find a sleeper here; eveyrone on their squad should probably perform up to par. Ben Zobrist (OF / SS) qualifies at shortstop and could well snag the right field job, but I still woulnd’t count on that many AB. His power seemingly came out of nowhere and with a 13% LD rate and a corresponding .255 BABIP, things dont look particularly solid moving forward. He’s got a solid walk rate (13%) which negates most of his 20% strike-out rate.  Hrmm, it’s interesting.

Matt Joyce (OF) who’s penciled in ahead of Zobrist at RF could provide you with solid power numbers to go with a beautifully awesome .260 AVG. Joyce strikes out about a quarter to a third of the time, but he’s a true masher. Against righties Joyce should put up solid numbers, and maybe your league undervalues him.

If you can get Joyce on the cheap, you’ll be incredibly happy as he’ll put up great numbers.  Just dont over-pay, mind you — what is overpaying for 30HR in 500 AB?

Keep his name on your cheat sheet and snag him if the time is right.

Boston Red Sox

There’s no sleepers on this team, who are we kidding. If Ortiz gets dead, Rocco Baldelli (OF / DH) should put up solid numbers.

Cincinatti Reds

Jay Bruce (OF) is a sleeper, sort of — I tend to think he’ll be overvalued come draft day but there’s no way to dismiss his raw talent.  He’ll be thrown in with the rookies as he compares best to them.

I like Jerry Hairston Jr (OF / SS) to be a solid source of steals for your middle infield, assuming he can hold off newly arrived masher Johnny Gomes (OF). If Gomes can get himself 350 AB, he seems to hit 20HR.  If he can land a full time gig, expect those numbers to go up in the Great American Bandbox. Striking out 30% of the time isn’t optimal, but if the HR come with it — The Reds will take it.

The whole Reds’ team should play well, with Encarnacion putting up a few more dollars than he’s worth along with Brandon Phillips.  There’s no reason to not take a Red this year.

Colorado Rockies

You’ve gotta take anyone with talent pretty serious in Colorado.

Ian Stewart (2b? / 3b?) has entered the hype machine and as of January, Garrett Atkins is in LF?? Stewart’s not a sleeper, but he should produce and strike out given playing time.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF) the 243 tooled player acquired in the Holliday deal should rake given the chance.  I have him in my top 5 sleepers.  The man swings at everything, in the zone or outside of it and he strikes out too damn much but whatever.

Sometimes swinging at everything works — oh wait, you have to make contact when you swing at everything? Shit.  Gonzalez is still in my top 5.

Kansas City Royals

Mark Teahen (OF / 2B) is a solid player, and a half decent corner outfielder.  He is not a Second Basemen, but if the Royals switch him to second base as the rumours indicate — he may well be useful. Optimally, Teahan would gain second base eligibility and then return to the outfield but we’ll see. Teahan had a down year last year, and he’s still striking out at a 23% clip — so buyer beware.

Big Fat Billy Butler (1B / DH) and Kila Ka’Ailhue (1B / DH) along with Mike Jacobs (1B) should all see time.  Butler was everyones favourite sleeper last year, and Jacobs can just straight up mash. 25 to 30 homers seems about right for Jacobs, considering all things — but you’ll lose out on the counting stats. Ka’Ailhue should be interesting — i’m not sure if he’s a sleeper at this point or not, but boy can he hit.

Ka’Ailhue would have been a huge addition to any team if not for the Mike Jacobs trade, and maybe he’ll still contribute to a lesser extent. Maybe the youngster can sit down with Jacobs and explain to him why it’s beneficial to Walk almost as much, if not more, than you strike out.  Everything is there except playing time.

Alberto Collaspo (2B) just as a side note, i really like Alberto Collapso and whenever playing Baseball Mogul 2007? I made sure to add him to my team — he always got good around 2009.  Computers rule!

Detroit Tigers

Nothing seems to pop out about the Tigers. Maybe Gerald Laird (C) away from Texas? No thanks. Nice line-up though.

Minnesota Twins

Alexi Casilla (2B) isn’t a sleeper but should put up solid stats. If people start snoozing on Delmon Young (OF), this might be the year.  I’d be more than willing to take a risk on Young, banking that he finally put stuff together in his head.  Young’s got all the talent in the world but like so many of these uber-talented top-prospects, maybe his work ethic isn’t quite there.  I’m not going to predict 20 HR for Young, but you should know incredibly early in the season whether or not he’s going to continue grounding balls harmlessly into the outfield.

Nick Puntu (UTIL / Everywhere) should also contribute.

Chicago White Sox

Should be interesting.  Josh Fields (3B) can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown he can hit, yet. If Jerry Owens (OF) takes the CF job he should be a huge source of steals and more than likely Runs — if he can get on base at a decent clip.

I’m a big fan of super utility man Wilson Betemit (1B/3B/14G @ SS) but whether or not he gets playing time is a different story. His strike out rate is an ugly 25%, but I’d still give him a chance.

New York Yankees

Welcome to the hype-machine. Robinson Cano (2B) will bounce back but the only real sleeper here is Nick Swisher (1B / OF), who could well be dealt.

Swisher hit .219 last year, which is awful. Swisher generally doesn’t hit that well, and expecting more than .260 is goofy but boy does he walk. Expect a nice little return to the .375 range for Swishers OBP, and he’ll regain his .840 OPS form.

Swisher was apparently one of the most unlucky players in 2008, and many are predicting a rebound.

Very rarely do you see a players LD rate go up, while his BABIP dips 50 pts. If Swisher can find a way to get full time playing time, he’s a top 5 sleeper. I just don’t know how he does that in a crowded Yankees outfield — mind you, it’s a crowded AGING Yankees outfield.