Entering the year, everyone knew that Washington was going to have some serious problems with their rotation but, at the very least, their offense was going to be respectable.

Jim Bowden had assembled some terrific young talent, and brought in a couple key free agents.  Unfortunately, the Washington Nationals found a way to let their premiere talent waste away on the bench, or in the minors, while trotting out league average scrubs day in, and day out.

To many, it appeared as though Bowden was building a fantasy baseball squad, where Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham would fill the UTIL spots while Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Corey Patterson, Willie Harris and Austin Kearns would split time in the outfield.

Elijah Dukes looked to have broken through in 2008, leaving the past behind, and becoming an actual ball-player.  Dukes’ was a terrific power/speed guy that managed to get on base at a .386-clip in 2008 — things were lookin’ up.

Lastings Milledge had a realistic shot at 20 HR / 20 SB this year, but we all know how that turned out.  Everyone understands that the kid doesn’t listen, won’t take a walk, and strikes out too much, but the talent is definitely there.

So rather than giving these two legitimate shots of improving as ball-players, the Washington Nationals decided that 30-year old Josh Willingham, and 29-year old Austin Kearns were going to be the future of their franchise.

Willingham has had a spectacular year, posting a .300 AVG /.412 OBP/.933 OPS slash-line in 2009, but he’s also the proud owner of a .329 BABIP and 20% HR/FB ratio.   When we look at 2009, we’re looking at Josh Willingham’s ceiling as a ballplayer.

Austin Kearns has been under the Mendoza line for almost the entire year, but has still managed 210 plate appearances.

Nyjer Morgan, acquired in the Milledge-deal,  provides a nice little spark plug and an unholy defensive improvement, but why are the Nationals trading for outfielders to begin with?

Jim Bowden and Manny Acta are both gone now, but they’ve left one hell of a mess. A mess that Mike Rizzo is attempting to clean up by trading Nick Johnson, who’s departure essentially freed up an outfield spot as Adam Dunn slid over to first base.

With that said, Elijah Dukes has found himself recalled to the Big Club.  It was around this time last year that Elijah Dukes started to catch fire and absolutely rake.  In 2009, much like 2008, it’ll probably come down to AB’s and not much else.  Dukes destroyed AAA pitching over the past month, posting a 1.13 BB/K ratio to compliment his .943 OPS.

Last night against the Pirates, Riggleman trotted Dukes out in the number six spot.  It’s a great spot for Dukes, hitting after Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham, and should increase his RBI numbers substantially.  He may have the Catcher (Bard/Flores,) Second Baseman (Hernandez/Gonzalez,) and Pitcher hitting after him, but at least he’s not forced to hit after Christian Guzman and his .322 OBP.

At the start of the season, I predicted that Elijah Dukes and Washington’s incredibly solid offense would put up fairly surprising numbers.  Little did I know that Dukes would find his ass on the bench, and then in the Minors.  I’m still not ready to admit that I was wrong because there’s no explanation for the shit-show that went down in Washington but I’d recommend picking up Elijah Dukes as soon as possible, especially if he starts getting regular at-bats.

I’m left to wonder what kind of numbers Dukes would be sitting on if Acta had shown enough trust in him to give him regular at-bats.  The Nationals have the worst pitching in the league by a country mile, and I’ll never be able to wrap my head around why the Manager and General Manager didn’t let their young guys play.

Maybe I’m just clinging to the past, unable to admit that I was simply incorrect.

Law and Order SVU hit the spot tonight and Delroy Lindo of Gone In 60 Seconds fame, rocked the house.  Delroy’s currently being represented by the Jamie Moyer of super hot chicks, Jeri Ryan.  Ryan’s still a spring chicken compared to Moyer though, she’s only 41 to Moyer’s 46.

Onto Fantasy Baseball!

IF you’re going to be making moves, here are some eye-catchers for Tuesday:

1. Josh Johnson – P – Florida Marlins
2. Colby Rasmus – OF – St. Louis Cardinals
3. Nick Johnson – 1B – Washington Nationals
4. Franklin Guetierrez – OF – Seattle Mariners
5. Erik Bedard – SP – Seattle Mariners (trade for?)
6. Emmanuel Burris – 2B – San Francisco Giants
7. Josh Fields & Chris Getz – IF – Chicago White Sox
8. Converted  OF Skip Schumaker / Mark Teahan – 2B – Cards/Royals
9. Wandy Rodriguez – SP – Houston Astros

Marlins / Nats

Josh Johnson looked great against the Nationals tonight, striking out 8 batters over 6 and two-thirds innings. Johnson also avoided walking a batter, which is nice to see from the kid.  With Johnson’s strike-out ability (~8K/9), he’ll be very valuable if he can limit his walks. He’s posted career BB/9 totals of between 3 and 4, so this is definitely a great start for the kid.

Keep an eye out for Johnson, if he can keep his walks down to under 3 per 9 — he’ll be a damn good investment in any league. You can do a lot worse than Johnson at this point.

This is the second straight game that Manny Acta has benched Elijah Dukes in favor of Austin Kearns.  It’s obviously not punishment as there are no news stories, and Dukes has been pitch hitting.  Maybe ownership wants to showcase Kearns?  If they’re lucky, they’ll get a player to be named later for Kearns.

Nick Johnson is healthy and raking, and if the rest of the Nationals ever start getting on base — Johnson will have value.  Unfortunately, Johnson will be hurt by that point.

Ronny Paulino and John Baker should form a nice little platoon down in Florida, neither will have value unless they get starter’s AB.

Pirates / Cards

Ian Snell of the Pirates had a rough day, surrendering 8 runs, 6 of which were earned, to the Cardinals.  Lots of good stuff coming out of Cardinals camp: Skip Schumaker’s start at second base didn’t go overly well, as he went hitless and committed a throwing error. Khalil Greene continued hitting, and Colby Rasmus got the start in right-field. Rasmus managed two singles and a walk in 5 plate appearances, not quite Schafer-esque. Strangely enough, both Rasmus and Duncan played with Ludwick riding the pine.  I still think this shapes up as Ludwick, Ankiel and Rasmsus as the starting outfielders.

M’s / Twins

A few line-up maneuvers that should peak your interest:  Guetierrez is batting second for the M’s, a spot in which he should flourish — I’d roster him in deep leagues, especially when Ichiro returns.  Denard Span is batting lead-off for the Twins with Gomez batting 7th.  Alexi Casilla, a nice sleeper, is batting in the 2-hole. Erik Bedard only went 5 innings, but struck out 8 — Hope you drafted him! In that park, with his skills, there’s going to be some serious value….if only he wasn’t a huge injury risk.

Jays / Tigers

Toronto’s 2-0, and first place in the AL EAST, thanks to the Detroit Tigers. On behalf of all Torontonians, Thank you!

Starting Pitchers Edwin Jackson and David Purcey looked stellar; each went 7 innings and gave up 2 and 3 ER, respectively.  Jackson struck out 4, while walking only a single batter. Purcey struck out one more batter, as he whiffed 5, but also walked 3.  Purcey should have more K-value long-term, but Jackson could be primed for one of those “never-saw-dat-coming” seasons.

I’d be worried if I owned one of the closers in this game though.  Lyon’s technically not the closer, but earned a blown save after allowing the game-winning run in a tie ball game.  Ryan was also very hittable, and I’d be picking up Scottie Downs ASAP (if you’re in a league where closer speculating is required)

Braves / Phillies

The Braves handed it to Philly again, and Mike Gonzalez owners exhaled.  Jurrjens didn’t allow a run, but wasn’t all that sharp. Schafer fell back down to earth, but even if he’s going hitless, so long as he’s taking walks — I’m buying it. Nothing terribly interesting…

Red Sox / Rays

Tampa and Boston finally got their seasons going, and I ended up watching a good chunk of this sucker on mlb’s gameday application.  Beckett’s release point was noticeably different between his fastball/curveball, one-two punch — early season kinks, I’m sure.

Tampa’s 3-4-5-6 of Longoria, Pena, Burrell and Joyce is going to strike-out a lot.  I’m actually quite worried about this team, but Maddon’s a bright guy and I’m sure he’ll find a way to split this up.  Other than Iwamura, Bartlett and Gabe Gross each stealing a base, there’s not much of note in this game.  James Shields was hittable, but I’d expect him to post stellar WHIP and K numbers for the rest of the year.

Giants / Brewers

Tim Lincecum is apparently a mortal, a very, very pale mortal that’s starting to look more and more like Kate Moss during the ‘addicted-to-heroin-and-cocaine-era’ or…. Skeletor.

Rickie Weeks is hitting the ball, and JJ Hardy isn’t — Welcome to Bizzaro World.  Hardy left 7 men on base.

Burriss got the start at second base over Frandsen, and Travis Ishikawa is proving me wrong by looking like a big-leaguer.

The Brewers ran wild against Bengie Molina.

Royals / White Sox

Mark Teahan started at second base, and looked good.  Trey Hillman has way too many guys hitting ahead of his two best hitters, Gordon and Butler.  They’re both young, but they shouldn’t be batting 6th and 7th.

The White Sox’ Josh Fields is batting 9th, but I’m not sure where Ozzie Guillen moves him to even if he keeps up his hot hitting. You can flip the White Sox line-up backwards, and it’ll probably look just as good as it does now: Fields (9th), Ramirez (8th), Pierzynski (7th) and Konerko (6th) vs. Wise (1st), Getz (2nd), Quentin (3rd) and Thome (4th).

Cubbies / ‘Stros

Soriano struck out 3 times, but did manage to homer — I’m thinking there’s going to be a lot of these games for him, wadda leadoff hitter.

Wandy Rodriguez looked solid, and does have some pretty solid K potential.  He’s probably one of the top players left in your waiver-wire so keep an eye out.

Not really much to report out of this game, but someone should inform the Astros that Ivan Rodriguez is no longer a viable number-2 hitter.

Rockies / D-Backs

Summary: Lots of Strikeouts.

Ubaldo Jiminez has a blistering fastball, but until he learns to pitch he’s going to have some issues in Coors.  Dan Haren is still Dan Haren.

Justin Upton played, but hit 8th — not good for fantasy owners.

Games in Progress – Dodgers / Padres & Angels / A’s

I love Chris Young this year, and he hasn’t disappointed so far.  I didn’t realize that Chase Headley had third base eligibility in your standard Yahoo! league and if third wasn’t so deep this year, he’d have some value.  If he gets hot, snap him up — otherwise he’s going to be your league average third baseman (fantasy wise).

Kemp batting 7th lowers his value.  I understand starting with Furcal and Hudson but…c’mon!  Obviously, if Hudson sticks in the 2-hole, he’ll have value.

Top prospect, Trevor Cahill, went 5 but walked 5! He also gave up 5 hits! How did he only allow 2 ER?  He has more strike-out potential than the 1 that he posted tonight.

…hopefully the Blue Jays game will be on basic cable tomorrow.  It’s the second game of the year, and the game’s already been shifted into the 400′s on Rogers cable.

Luckily, I wasn’t fooled by Sportsnets’ trickery and promptly switched away from the Maple Leafs game.

Ted Rogers, if you’re reading this in Heaven? could you please magically allow our cable box to get MLB extra innings for free?

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30′s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30′s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30′s to low-40′s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.

As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago.  I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.

Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:

What’s Missing?

Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year.  If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.

Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy.  Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.

The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel.  Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.

Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam.  Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year.  The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.