Five earned runs, courtesy of three long-balls, meant that Alexi Ogando didn’t exactly receive a warm welcome to New York. The Bronx Bombers unleashed a hellish fury on Ogando even without Alex Rodriguez in the line-up. Ogando finished the game after 6.1IP; allowing 5ER on 6H, 1BB, and 3HR. All and all, it wasn’t too bad.

The post-game story nailed it though:

NEW YORK — The key to Alexi Ogando’s success before Sunday was an ability to throw his fastball anywhere from 94 to 97 and mix in a slider with tons of movement and varying speeds. That left hitters struggling to catch up with the fastball and shaking their heads at the slider.

But under the bright lights at Yankee Stadium on Sunday, Ogando’s slider wasn’t moving the way he wanted.

“It just wasn’t good tonight,” catcher Yorvit Torrealba said.

The slider wasn’t great and New York batters were able to sit on his big-time heat. Ogando touched 97mph in New York and averaged about 95mph on the heater. Despite the predictability, it’s still one hell of a pitch. Ogando started out really bringing it, but slowly and steadily declined to about 93mph by the time he was pulled in the sixth.

Alas, it was all about the slider and I absolutely love when the players sentiments echo that of the MACHINE! Ogando’s slider had managed to get about 4 inches past 0 on the horizontal axis and about 1-inch above the vertical axis thus far in 2011. His fastball comes in at -3 and 9, so the separation is huge when you toss in a 15mph speed difference as well.

Tonight though, Ogando’s numbers weren’t nearly as pretty:

This really isn’t all that bad of a pfx chart, it’s actually remarkably solid despite his lack of a change-up, but it confirms Yorvit’s suspicions.

Just remember that New York’s a really good team and Ogando’s loss of velocity is probably to be expected early in his RP->SP transition. In his first start versus the Mariners, Ogando maintained velocity right until the bitter end: he hit 96mph on his 86th pitch before being yanked at the end of the 6th. In his next start, he started dropping velocity by about the 4th or 5th inning, though. This makes a couple of starts in a row where Ogando’s lost velocity fairly early in the ball-game, but he’s more than capable of working in the 92-93mph range.

Ogando’s got all the potential in the world, but he’ll eventually need to improve that change-up of his and work on his stamina. I’m sure there are quite a few pitchers out there that’ll take a 6-hit performance against the Yankees even if three of them were long-balls.

Phil Hughes was pulled after four innings after giving up five earned runs and two long-balls. Hughes didn’t look sharp today and as reported by Buster Olney, he wasn’t exactly bringing the gas: “Phil Hughes has no velocity today–fastball 85-89 mph…”

Yup, that’s about right.

These aren’t exactly pretty numbers and well off Phil Hughes’ comfort zone.

Hughes generally averages around 93mph on his straight fastball and about 89 on the cutter.  This isn’t something I’d be terrible concerned about yet, unless he makes a habit of working in the 89-90mph range.

David Price’s final-line might not be something to write home about; it seemed like just another quality start.  It was against the Yankees, but 3 ER and a 1.30 WHIP over 7 and 2/3 isn’t a spectacular performance even with 7 strikeouts.

However, if you lop off the eighth inning when Price was noticeably fatigued, you’ve got yourself something to write home about:  7IP, 5 Hits, 2BB, 2 ER and 7 Strike-Outs.

Price has never been one to shy away from a challenge and his velocity surely reflected his eagerness coming into the Yankees game.  Early in the game, Price’s fastball was jumping out of his hand, hitting between 96 and 97mph during the first 50 pitches of the game.  Price then settled in and worked around 95mph for the remainder of the game until the final inning.

Price worked with a pitch distribution similar to previous years, but both fastballs had a noticeable velocity spike.  Price’s fastball velocity was reminiscent of his playoff dominance of two years ago when he acted primarily as a reliever.   Rather than the 93mph 4-seam and 88mph 2-seam of 2009, Price was dealing 95 and 91 mph heat, respectively.

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Using the data from Brooks Baseball, it’s clear to see the contrast between David Price’s velocity during his last start of 2009 and his first start of 2010, both against the Bronx Bombers.

Furthermore, the movement of all Price’s pitches seems to have taken a leap forward.  Price had everything working last night and Joe Girardi wasn’t hesitant to praise Price’s curveball:  “He threw the ball extremely well, his command of his fastball was really good and his curveball was excellent.”

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The colored dots represent Price’s start last night, while the cubes represent his last start of 2009.  As you can see, other than the superior grouping of off-speed pitches that allowed MLB Game Day to differentiate between his slider and curveball, Price was simply getting more movement.

The slider (orange) is getting slightly more movement on the horizontal plane, but the vertical dip has suffered a little bit.  Price will still be sitting around his standard 4ish range on the Y-Axis, which isn’t concerning.

Price’s 4-seamer has straightened out a bit, and there’s a bit of an anomaly to the left.  Without looking at the contrasting velocity charts, I’m sure it’s just a matter of him ramping it up from time to time.

Essentially, Price is throwing harder and throwing independent sliders and curves rather than just working with a “slurve.”

When I see numbers like this, I can’t in my right mind say anything other than, “Buy, Buy, Buy!”

The Jays and Yankees in a tight one right now, Roy Halladay looks great and my girlfriend’s cookin’ up some potato-salmon friend fish cakes she found in a Jamie Oliver cookbook.  Forty-Three Thousand apparently made it out to the Rogers Centre tonite.

The mental part of the game always blows my mind, and Mark Teixeira got me thinkin’ about BABIP and more specifically how hitters remain sane when the balls just aren’t dropping.

Teixeira’s currently hitting  .184 on balls in play or BABIP.  Teixeira’s career average BABIP is .309 , and his previous two years have been .344 and .321. Absolutely nothing is dropping for Teixeira, and it blows my mind that he hasn’t over-reacted and started forcing it. Teixeira’s still striking out around his career average of 20% and he’s actually increased his walk-rate a few percentage-points up to 16%.  His discipline hasn’t changed, but the numbers say that his swing may have.  Teixeira is only hitting 10% of his hits for line-drives which is painful considering Teixeira hasn’t finished the season with a LD% lower than 19.8%.

Where are all these line-drives going, you ask? Straight to fly-balls at a 57.1% rate– Which may well indicate Mr. Teixeira’s aimin’ for the fences, and may actually be pressing.  However, it’s not like Teixeira’s swinging at more pitches, inside or outside of the zone.  Teixeira’s making contact at a career-average rate — so what gives?

Well, he’s just in a funk.  I’m going to take six year’s worth of All-Star calibre production over a bad April when evaluating a player, Every Single Time!

There’s no reason to believe that Teixeira will continue hitting fly-balls at a 60 percent clip, as he’s one of the better pure hitters in the game.  Teixeira’s 7 Home Runs might make it difficult to acquire him, but he’s still very close to top-10 talent which is saying a lot considering the depth at first base.

Chien-Ming Wang is scheduled to pitch for Triple-A Scranton tonight as part of his rehabilitation stint. Wang was downright awful to open the year, posting a 34.50 ERA in 3 starts.  Wang’s been dropped in most leagues without a deep bench or a bunch of DL spots, so he’s definitely worth considering.

If Wang is lights-out tonight, it’d make sense to to take him off the DL but Brian Cashman, who’s heading up to Scranton to take in Wang’s start,  isn’t quite  sold. Cashman said, “I wouldn’t think that he would be ready after one outing, We’ll see what we see. I wouldn’t be surprised if he needed more.”

Thankfully Wang’s not injured, he’s just not as strong as he needs to be.  Primarily a sinkerballer, Wang’s margin of error is paper-thin.  During his successful ’06 and ’07, Wang maintained a 93mph average on his fastball. This kept Wang’s ERA under 4.00 and his WHIP around 1.30.  More importantly, Wang was inducing two to three times more ground-balls than fly-balls.

In 2009, coming off of a 2008 foot injury, Wang only managed to average 90.5mph on his fastball. Wang’s velocity had already decreased almost a full-mph in 2008, but his velocity drop in 2009 was catastrophic.

Unfortunately there’s no empirical data on Wang’s first start, but the NYTimes reports he was consistently hitting 91mph.  Yahoo’s Chris Ryan is also reporting that Wang topped out at 93 mph.

These speeds are still too low to predict to a return to the 19-game winning form of 2006/2007, but it is an improvement over Wang’s 2009 numbers.

As it stands, everyone’s enthralled with Wang’s 19-Win seasons but I’d limit my optimism.  Wang wasn’t nearly as efficient prior to his broken foot in 2008 as people seem to remember.  Prior to his injury, Wang was getting hit a lot harder as batters were taking him for a 4-5% increase in Line Drives. Wang’s control also seemed to abandon him, as his normally steady 2 batters walked per nine increased to nearly 3.5 BB per 9.

Weighing the risk/reward of Wang doesn’t do much for his case.  From this point forward, the only category that Wang will excel in is Wins.  Wins are also generally considered the most volatile of the pitching categories, and while the Yankees should be great — there’s nothing to say that Wang’s the pitcher that gets credited with the W, especially in the tough AL EAST.

With all said, if you’re thinking about Chien-Ming Wang — watch his velocity.  He needs to consistently hit 92-93mph without spiking his walk-rate in order to be effective.  Wang’s got a lot of potential as a sinker-baller in a stadium that’s yielded it’s fair share of early-season home-runs.  Wang’s an innings eater, and if he’s healthy — expect 9-11 Wins?

Welcome Back Mr. Phil(ip) Hughes!

Rapper turned preacher, turned preach-rapper, Mase, would like to say, “WELCOME BACK!” to Mr. Phil Hughes.

The Phil Hughes Story:

• First Team High School All-American.
• Drafted 23rd overall by the Yankees in the First Year Players Draft.
• Baseball America ranked him the number four overall prospect in 2007.
• MLB Line: 106.2 IP, 5.15 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 81 K

Hughes’ Stuff

• 91-95 mph 4-seamer
• 87-90 mph 2-seamer
• low-70s mph Curve Ball
• low-80s mph change-up
• mid-80s Cut-Fastball / Slider

Hughes In The Minors: 2007 to 2009

Hughes garnered immense hype prior to his first big-league start as is generally the case with Yankees’ prospects.  Unfortunately, Hughes has yet to get a fair shake and has been quite mediocre in limited MLB action because the Yankees continually stock-pile free-agent pitching.  Considering Hughes’ mound-presence and major-league readiness, it’s a surprise the Yankees have relegated Hughes to spot-start duty and withering away in the minors.

Hughes has dominated minor-league hitters across all levels and continues to impress in 2009. In 19.1 innings for AAA-Scranton, Hughes is the proud owner of a 1.86 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 19K, and has won each of the three games he’s started.  Quite simply, Phil Hughes is too damn good for AAA.

2008 was a mess for Hughes who suffered a strained oblique muscle to go along with a cracked rib-cage and a diagnosis of near-sightedness. All and all, 2008 was a year that you can probably ignore when looking at Hughes’ minor-league track-record.

2009 Fantasy Impact

Chien-Ming Wang and the case of the disappearing velocity has lead to a 2009 ERA of 34.50 and a DL-stint. With Wang on the DL, it appears as though Hughes will get every opportunity to impress making his first start on Tuesday against the Detroit Tigers.

1. If you’re a Yankees fan you should be thanking your lucky stars that he’s starting in Comerica rather than New Yankee Stadium.  While Hughes is calm, cool and collected — he’s still a 22-year old.  Pitching in Detroit should provide some distance for Hughes and a successful first start could be the beginning of a long career in pin-stripes for the perennial prospect.
2. The Yankees have a nice little schedule coming up, and if Hughes is fully inserted into the rotation he’ll pitch to Detroit, Anaheim, Baltimore, Toronto and Minnesota. If the rotation stays in line, and starts aren’t skipped; Hughes will luck-out and miss both Tampa Bay and Boston.

The stars seem to line up perfectly for Phil Hughes and facing the Angels at Yankee Stadium will be Hughes’ toughest task, but other than that, he’ll have a very good shot at success over the next month.

With everything lined up and Hughes throwing his dirty curveball consistently for strikes; the only question remaining is whether or not Hughes can convert his potential into cold-hard-statistical data.

Unlike previous years, Hughes should be able to carry-over his potent K-9 rate.  Expecting Hughes to continue striking out 1 major-league batter per inning may be asking a little too much, but he should be able to maintain a rate somewhere in the ballpark of 7.50 – 8.00 K/9 (over the next month.)

Hughes is worth rostering in all but the shallowest of leagues, even if you’re just taking a wait-and-see approach.  I really like the way that the next month stacks up for Hughes, and he seems to be in rhythm once again.

Hughes should’ve learned from experiences and after the kid gets a few wins under his belt — The Yankees will have to pry him from the rotation with a crowbar.  If  Hughes falters early, Ian Kennedy, another interesting Yankees’ Prospect that was equally as unimpressive in his 2008 big-league stint, could get the call.  Kennedy has bested Hughes with 21 strike-outs in 18 innings, and has also dominated AAA hitting, to the tune of a 2.00 ERA.

Where Hughes separates himself from Kennedy and almost every other imaginable prospect, is his control.  Hughes has only walked 3 batters, and currently owns a 6.33 K:BB ratio.

The only concern, especially the way Yankee Stadium is playing, is Hughes’ two home-runs allowed.  Kennedy excels at keeping the ball down (at least in theory,) and may well be a better fit for Yankee Stadium until the ball stops leaving the park.

My gut is telling me that Bill James’ predictions may not be that ludicrous, and the statistics seem to back it up.  Hughes has dominated AAA only to fail at the big league level before, so by no means is this a sure thing.  If you’re a risk-taker though, Phil Hughes could pay huge dividends.

Bill James Projection Model: 125 IP, 9 W, 3.38 ERA, 121 K, 1.26 WHIP, 8.71 K/9, and a 2.63 K:BB

By The Way: I do consider Standard ESPN, 10 Team Leagues, to be very shallow leagues.  It actually upsets me playing in these leagues because so few players are drafted, and it really comes down to who’s team stays healthy. Winning a league like this gives you zero bragging rights, unless you are the kind of person that likes bragging about winning money on a slot-machine.

A grand coliseum it is, unfortunately what’s going on inside isn’t gladiatorial at all — it is far more reminiscent of Christians being fed to LIONS.

In the first three games at New Yankee Stadium, the visiting Cleveland Indians have scored, gulp, 37 runs.  The Yankees have managed a respectable,  but not spectacular, 12 Runs.

So what’s this mean?

It means buy, buy, buy them damn Yankees.  Leave the Indians to someone else, while Asdrubal Cabrera is one of my favourite sleepers, let someone else overpay.

As long as the owner of Mark Teixeira or Robbie Cano isn’t a Yankee-homer, or someone who wears their hat backwards, go ahead and pay full market value.  As a general rule, if someone’s douchey enough to wear their hat backwards, they’re generally a Yankees fan. I would say something like 80 percent of people that wear a Yankee hat outside of New York, probably beat their spouse and/or children.  Statistics, people! They MATTER! Not just in baseball either, In Everyday LIFE too!

New Yankee Stadium has the exact same dimensions as the old one across the street.  The fences haven’t been moved, or the stadium tilted off axis.  Same damn ballpark, yet the short porch in right appears to be getting shorter by the second.  The Yankees left handed hitters should have no problem reaching this target, and the righties love to go opposite field.

Ken Rosenthal wrote a piece for Fox, detailing the crazy rate at which balls are leaving the park:

The dimensions of the new Yankee Stadium are the same as the old. The short right-field porch is no more or less inviting. But for whatever reason, balls seem to carry better to right than they did across the street…

“The ball gets legs. It climbs,” says one scout who is attending the opening series. “It’s not so much that it’s getting out of there quickly. It’s just staying up there.”

And once the old stadium is knocked down, sometime this summer, the new stadium could play even smaller.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told the MLB on FOX broadcasters before Saturday’s game that the demolition of the old stadium will allow the wind from the Harlem River to blow directly into the new one, perhaps creating a jet stream to left-center field to match the one in right and right-center.

So the Yankees are sucking pretty hard, but do you really think they’ll continue getting their asses beat like this for the next 5 months?  Didn’t think so…

Teixeira, Cano and Swisher will more than likely benefit the most from the craziness that’s ensued.  I liked Teixeira a lot more than most people going into this season because of the short rightfield porch.  I didn’t know it would play THIS small though…

Of course this is a tiny little sample size of 3 games.  Dave Cameron over at the USSMariner.com has also pointed out that HR are up across the board, and they’re actually flying further.

If you want to win your league though, you can’t always rely on proven statistics — they take too damn long.  Sometimes you have to go out on a limb, with a gut-feeling.  In the end, it could just be called an over-reaction, but at this point I’m calling it a hunch.

Adversely, I’m not sure where this puts the Yankees right handed starting pitchers.  I’ve never been a fan of Burnett, and Chamberlain was probably a bit overrated coming in anyways — I wouldn’t acquire them, but if I already drafted them I wouldn’t take anything less than fair-market value.  I’m not selling them off for 90 cents on the dollar, I might think about 95 though — at that point however, it’s just a matter of personal taste.

There are inconsistencies everywhere surrounding this Alex Rodriguez story.  I wrote an article earlier this week dealing with A-Rod’s cyst and it’s fantasy impact.  A link to an MLB.com article detailing the situation was provided (lame, I know).

Keith Allison - Flickr

The MLB.com article focused mainly on A-Rod’s brother announcing that Rodriguez will miss a bunch of time due to cyst surgery.

Then, MLB.com made the link disappear. The link was replaced with an article detailing how the cyst had been aspirated on Thursday — which is odd because my article was written Wednesday night.  Either way, I’m not sure why they removed the article from both MLB.com and their sister site worldbaseballclassic.com

Here’s the article by Bryan Hoch (taken from google cache, entitled Brother: A-Rod could be out until May:

TAMPA, Fla. — Alex Rodriguez’s troublesome right hip requires immediate surgery and could force the Yankees slugger out until May, the third baseman’s brother told LasMayores.com, MLB.com’s Spanish-language Web site.

Rodriguez’s brother, Joe Dunand, said that Rodriguez will have the operation performed in Vail, Colo., on Monday by Dr. Marc Philippon. The recovery time is expected to be about 10 weeks.

The diagnosis will nix Rodriguez’s hopes of playing for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic.

“We’re not giving any information right now,” Yankees spokesman Jason Zillo said Thursday.

“I do not have that information. I have not heard that yet. I have to talk to Cash,” manager Joe Girardi said, referring to general manager Brian Cashman.

Rodriguez left the Dominican Republic team on Wednesday to fly to Colorado after the results of a MRI taken Saturday in Tampa revealed the internal cyst. A Yankees team physician, Dr. Chris Ahmad, recommended that Rodriguez undergo an examination by a specialist.

The 33-year-old Rodriguez has managed discomfort in his right hip dating back to last season. Girardi said Wednesday that Rodriguez had expressed feeling “a little stiffness” at various times since last season.

“There wasn’t really any pain — just some mild stiffness,” Girardi said. “He was doing a lot of stretching and worked on it this winter as well. We just want to make sure that we’re doing the right things with this.”

Rodriguez has played regularly this spring, including going 1-for-3 with a double and a run scored in Tuesday’s Dominican Republic exhibition against the Marlins. He left the Yankees on Sunday after playing in New York’s Grapefruit League loss to the Reds at Sarasota, Fla.

Bryan Hoch is a reporter for MLB.com. This story was not subject to the approval of Major League Baseball or its clubs. — MLB.com

I wanted to revisit this article to deal with some of the inconsistencies, and it seemed wise considering that A-Rod’s surgery was breaking news, somehow, 4 days later.

March 5th brought us: The News that A-Rod was doing his thing in Colorado, and there was the possibility of surgery.

The strange thing about this Newsday article was A-Rod’s comments to the Yankee organization:

Rodriguez told the Yankees he thought the hip soreness was restricting his bat motion, however, and possibly affecting his power.

March 7th brought us: Bloomberg’s ‘Maybe A-Rod Will have Surgery‘

March 8th and 9th brought us: A-Rod is going to have hybrid surgery and should be out for 6-9 weeks. As far as I can tell, the cyst is rubbing A-Rod’s hip labrum, and causing stiffness. Dr. Phillippon, the hip-specialist, plans on freeing up the labrum in addition to removing part of the cyst (mlb.com-link).

The MLB.com Link that replaced “Brother…” still piques my curiosity however, stating the following:

Cashman said that Rodriguez has not felt pain in the right hip, though an MRI examination taken last season during Rodriguez’s stint on the disabled list with a strained right quadriceps revealed an irregularity that was tucked into Rodriguez’s medical file.

Because the irregularity was asymptomatic and there was no pain, Rodriguez was permitted to continue playing. He had taken measures over the off-season and during the Grapefruit League season to relieve stiffness and restriction in the hip, including increased stretching.

USA Today listed A-Rod’s 2008 Quad injury as having taken place in late April, which I’d assume meant A-Rod played the entire 2008 season with the Yankees having known that he had a cyst or an irregularity.

A tear of the hip labrum does seem suspicious, however. Firstly, tearing the labrum in the hip joint generally requires absolutely no treatment, and patients often do not even realize they’ve torn it. The Mayo-Clinic’s website, Mayoclinic.com, will help us along, although feel free to skip to the end:

Symptoms: Many hip labral tears cause no signs or symptoms. Occasionally, however, you may experience one or more of the following:

* A locking, clicking or catching sensation in your hip joint
* Pain in your hip or groin
* Stiffness or limited range of motion in your hip joint

Causes:

The cause of a hip labral tear may be:

• Repetitive activities. Sports-related and other physical activities — including the sudden twisting or pivoting motions common in golf or softball — can lead to joint wear and tear that ultimately results in a hip labral tear.
• Trauma. Injury to or dislocation of the hip joint, such as from playing football, hockey and other contact sports, can cause a hip labral tear.
• Diseases or conditions that damage the labrum. These may include degenerative conditions such as osteoarthritis or femoroacetabular impingement (FAI), a condition in which the ball of your femur and your acetabulum rub together abnormally, causing friction in your hip joint.

Sometimes a hip labral tear has no known cause.

Tests and Diaganosis:

Your doctor will ask about your symptoms and conduct a physical examination. He or she may ask you to move your hips and legs in different positions to assess your range of motion while asking you about any pain or unusual sensations.

To confirm a diagnosis of a hip labral tear, you may undergo a special type of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) called magnetic resonance (MR) arthrography.

Magnetic resonance (MR) arthrography is a noninvasive technique that uses a magnetic field and radio waves to create cross-sectional images of joints. During magnetic resonance (MR) arthrography, contrast material is injected into the joint space to help make images more clear.

Treatments and Drugs:

Many hip labral tears cause no signs or symptoms and need no treatment. However, when treatment is necessary it may include:

• Physical therapy. Exercises to maximize hip range of motion and hip strength and stability can help to improve symptoms. A physical therapist also can analyze the movements you perform that put stress on your hip joint and help you avoid these forces.
• Corticosteroid injections. A corticosteroid injection into the hip joint can help provide pain relief and reduce joint inflammation. These injections are performed under X-ray or ultrasound guidance.
• Pain medications. Acetaminophen (Tylenol, others) and nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) can provide pain relief. NSAIDs include such over-the-counter (OTC) medications as ibuprofen (Advil, Motrin, others) and naproxen (Aleve, others).

Arthroscopic surgery
If you have a hip labral tear and experience hip pain for more than four weeks, your doctor may recommend a surgical procedure called hip arthroscopy.

During hip arthroscopy, an orthopedic surgeon inserts a flexible, drinking-straw-sized instrument (arthroscope) into your joint space through a small incision in your skin. The arthroscope is fitted with a lighting system and tiny camera, enabling the surgeon to see into your joint.

Once the surgeon can see the joint, the specialized instruments needed to perform the procedure are inserted through small accessory incisions. Depending on the cause and extent of the tear, the surgeon may cut out and remove the torn piece of labrum or repair the torn cartilage with a suture procedure.

YES, STEROIDS ARE A TREATMENT FOR A TORN HIP LABRUM. Awesome, or AWESOME?

Just a final note on the possibility of Rodriguez having osteo-arthritis or the possibility of FAI (hipfai.com):

Why does it occur?

No one knows if FAI is a condition that begins at birth (congenital) or develops during periods of growth (acquired).  It is likely a combination of one’s genetics and environment.

How did I get it?

Some experts believe that significant athletic activity before skeletal maturity increases the risk of FAI, but no one truly knows.  Significant contact sports (i.e., football) are associated with Cam impingement.

I’m going out on a limb when I say this, but when you combine a body that has yet to mature with mass amounts of steroids, and in turn, muscle growth — you have yourself a perfect set of conditions.

What I can’t understand is why Alex Rodriguez didn’t have this addressed in the OFF-SEASON.

Everyone knew there was a problem but like many people Rodriguez did not experience pain from a torn-labrum & cyst.  However, the Yankee Doctors and Specialists surely must have known that this “irregularity” wouldn’t get better with time.

A-Rod swings a bat for his paycheck, and somehow we are supposed to believe that highly paid Doctors assured the Yankees that this wouldn’t continue to worsen?

So what’s going on here? There’s no reason why things should have unfolded this way.  If A-Rod was unfit to play, or the cyst was causing discomfort — this should have been taken care in the off-season.

Determining Burnett’s fantasy value heading into 2009 is akin to flipping a coin, with heads being a healthy 200IP and tails being less than 100IP.

Now, a brief A.J. Burnett time-line (Courtesy of Canada’s Third-Most Awesome Sports Channel):

Burnett -- Phillustration Flickr

Dec 18, 2008: Signed as a free agent by the New York Yankees to a five-year contract.
Nov 5, 2008: Filed for free agency.
Sep 25, 2007: Missed 1 game (personal reasons).
Sep 24, 2007: Personal reasons, day-to-day.
Aug 12, 2007: Missed 35 games (right shoulder injury).
Jul 1, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 29).
Jun 28, 2007: Missed 13 games (right shoulder injury).
Jun 19, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 13th).
Jun 13, 2007: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 22, 2006: Missed 69 games (right elbow injury).
May 29, 2006: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow injury).
Apr 22, 2006: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Apr 15, 2006: Missed 10 games (elbow injury).
Apr 1, 2006: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Dec 6, 2005: Signed as a free agent by the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year contract.
Oct 27, 2005: Filed for free agency.
May 31, 2005: Missed 9 games (elbow injury).
May 23, 2005: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jan 17, 2005: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Oct 3, 2004: Missed 19 game (elbow injury).
Sep 19, 2004: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jun 3, 2004: Missed 53 games (elbow surgery).
May 12, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (elbow surgery).
Apr 3, 2004: Elbow surgery, 15-day DL.
Mar 28, 2004: Elbow surgery, sidelined indefinitely.
Dec 20, 2003: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Nov 19, 2003: Activated from the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
Oct 25, 2003: Missed 16 playoff and 139 regular season games (right elbow inflammation).
Apr 26, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL.
Apr 9, 2003: Missed 8 games (right elbow inflammation).
Mar 29, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 21).
Sep 14, 2002: Missed 24 games (right elbow injury).
Aug 19, 2002: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
May 6, 2002: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
May 7, 2001: Missed 29 games (broken right foot).
Apr 24, 2001: Sent on rehabilitation assignment to Brevard County (A).
Mar 31, 2001: Broken right foot, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 23).

When You sign a 5yr-82.5 million dollar contract, you get tossed into the hype machine. There’s a nice post over at fangraphs.com explaining how Burnett’s contract plays out, and their general players current value vs. how much they’re being paid.

So whats the deal with Burnett when it comes to his fantasy value?

If he pitches 200 IP, you’re getting at least 200K, a sub-1.25 WHIP, and round about 3.50ish ERA.  This is pretty much the second tier of starting pitchers. Very few pitchers can get to 230-240 strike-outs in a season, and a healthy Burnett is one of them.  You’re basically getting Edison Volquez’s numbers with a better WHIP, or Brandon Webb’s numbers with a few more K’s.

He’s not quite in the class of Lincecum and Santana but his high K-Rate, really makes up for the slight downgrade in the ERA & WHIP from all-stars like Hamels, and Peavy.

Burnett is now also pitching for the best offense money can buy, which means if he goes 6 — he’ll get a W.  Twenty wins seems more like a basement than a ceiling with that line-up behind him.

STATS: 9.5K per 9, 3.50 BB per 9, 2.5ish K:BB.

So if Burnett goes 230 IP, he’s a top-5 or 6 Pitcher.  Now, please factor in the risk. Burnett’s had elbow issues his entire career, and that probably isn’t going to change.  As ridiculous as the A-Rod speech on wanting to prove to the world that he was indeed worth 200 Million dollars was, it does hold true.

Burnett and Sabathia are going to have to prove their worth.  While this contains no statistical data at all, and is nothing more than a gut feeling; Burnett is going to be using his insane-uncle-charlie quite a bit.  He’ll be throwing hard (is 100mph still a possibility?), and if anything goes wrong he’ll start forcing it.

Obviously, no-one is going to draft Burnett based on 220 IP — So you’ve got to decide upon a number that you feel is reasonable.  Two 15-day DL stints seems about right to me. There’s nothing to Burnett to analyze other than his injuries.  When he’s healthy he puts up devastating numbers, and while his control could use some work — most fantasy players can live with a 1.25-WHIP.

When Burnett is off, Burnett’s got control issues but Burnett’s normally only off when he’s tweaked his elbow. He’s shown he can pitch through minor inflammation in contract years, so the question becomes whether or not he’ll pitch through injuries in New York.

Bank on 160IP from Burnett, plus 50-60 IP from your fantasy league’s replacement level player. If you assume a 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 5-6 K / 9 for your replacement level player you’re getting pretty much Burnett’s 160 strikeout’s plus about 40 from your replacement level guy.  So 220 IP nets you 200 K.

I arrived at these numbers arbitrarily, but in a normal league a 4.50 ERA,  1.40 WHIP and 5-6K per 9 seems fair.

160 IP nets you 62 Earned Runs at a 3.50 ERA, and combine that with 30 ER in 60 IP (4.50ERA) and you’ve got 92 ER in 220 IP. Burnett’s probable 3.50 ERA becomes a 3.76 ERA when you combine it with your 60 IP from a replacement level pitcher.

Burnett’s WHIP will be the most volatile, but I’ll consider the ceiling of 1.30ish + 60IP of 1.40ish. Burnett has 208 BB+H in 160IP, and Replacement has 84 BB+H in 60 IP.  Combined that’s 292 BB+H in 220 IP = 1.33 WHIP.

Our combined AJ Burnett (160IP) + Player X (60 IP) stats are as follows:

3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 200K

The only thing I can add as a native-Torontonian, is that it wont be a contract year for another 5 years.

USEFUL ARTICLE HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/aj-to-ny

and HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/aj-burnett-to-the-yankees

Lovely Elbow Shot courtesy of Larry Page / Flickr

Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009: Eleven to Thirty.

#11 John Lackey – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 11-9, 141K, 3.81ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.25 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130K, 7.16 K:9, 3.25 K:BB

Bill James isn’t kind to John Lackey, and his predictions seem a bit low to me. Lackey has a good chance to raise his K:9 to at least 8 or 9 which combined with 200-220 IP should lead to a 200K season.

His other ratios have continued to improve throughout his career, so expecting a season of 8K per 9, and 2BB per nine seems about right. Along with a decent WHIP of 1.20ish, and a decent ERA.

He put up an ERA of 3.01 in 2007, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops it below 3.00 after a full year of recovery from his strained bicep issue of 2008.

This list is obviously more about value than actual draft position. John Lackey may not be drafted as the 11th best pitcher — but he’ll more than likely produce at this level. I’m not sure how long you can wait on Lackey as he looks to be bouncing up draft boards.

#12 Felix Hernandez – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 11-12, 188K, 3.86ERA, 1.35WHIP, 8.25 K:9

2008: 9 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 175K, 7.85 K:9, 2.19 K:BB

I find it hard to believe that Hernandez will settle into a career WHIP of 1.35-1.40. In 2008, he walked 3.59 batters per nine innings which is up from 2.51 the year before.

Hernandez has some of the best stuff in the league, and last year was just a mess for the entire Seattle organization. It’s not unthinkable that Hernandez will drop his walks back down to the mid-to-low twos.

If Hernandez can stop walking batters, he’ll become the dominant pitcher that everyone’s been waiting for. A decrease in BB would probably result in a drop in ERA, and obviously WHIP.

An ERA of 3.35, and a WHIP of under 1.30 is a good possibility. I think this is the year Hernandez really puts it together and capitalizes on his unbelievable talent.

There’s obviously a good amount of risk here, but pitching at Safeco eliminates a chunk of that risk. It’s somewhat worrisome to see his Line Drive percentage rising over the past few years.

#13 Scott Kazmir – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 10-8, 177K, 3.80ERA, 1.35WHIP, 9.83 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 166K, 9.81 K:9, 2.37 K:BB

Once again, Kazmir comes with a bit of risk. Kazmir is a guy that can put up almost 10K per 9, along with a 1.25ish WHIP. However, expecting a full 220 innings from him is a bit of a reach.

Currently, I’m banking on about 200 IP from Kazmir in 2009. As with Lincecum is just scary to see such a small guy throw the ball 90+ MPH. Kazmir also has a dirty slider to go with his 92mph heat.

As with Sabathia, Halladay and Beckett, I’m somewhat worried about AL East Pitchers. The offenses are now so stacked that there isn’t a break in the schedule.

Who knows how many wins Kazmir will garner, but I expect a pretty solid 2009 season from Scott Kazmir.

#14 Zack Greinke – SP – KC Royals

Bill James Prediction: 12-10, 156K, 3.98ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.24 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 183K, 8.14 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

I’m about as high on Zack Greinke as one can get. Hell, I”ll finance Greinke’s depression meds if he ever falls back off the wagon.

When Greinke came into the league, he was supposed to be the next big thing — then he shat the bed, developed social anxiety, and just stopped caring.

Now, Greinke is back and fulfilling his potential. If anyone comes out of nowhere to post a 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 220 Ks — It’s Zack Greinke.

Greinke has four damn good pitches, with his fastball pushing 94-95ish on a good day. He has amazing control, and I have a pretty big man crush on him.

One of my favourite websites, The Hardball Times, has a great article on Greinke. Apparently I’m not the only one in love with Greinke.

Realistically, I’d be willing to rank Greinke as high as 9th on this list if he starts shooting up expert charts. I’d have absolutely no problem trading Zack Greinke for Josh Beckett straight up. He’ll give you a good return on investment, wherever he’s drafted.

#15 Cliff Lee – SP – CLE Indians

Bill James Prediction: 14-9, 146K, 3.90ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.77 K:9

2008: 22 W, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170K, 6.85 K:9, 5.00 K:BB

I’m not a Cliff Lee fan, but I’m not sure how much further I can drop him after his 2008 Cy Young season. Who knows what kind of win totals Lee will put up in 2009, but Cleveland still has a good bullpen that’s been bolstered by the acquisition of Kerry Wood.

I still think Lee is risky, though. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him drop a 4.00 ERA on his owners. Lee’s always put up solid WHIP numbers, but when you examine last year in detail it just doesn’t seem sustainable.

Lee allowed less than half a HR per 9 and dropped his BB per 9 down to 1.37 after averaging around 1+ HR/9 and somewhere between 2.5 and 4 walks per 9.

Cliff Lee may have a Cy Young award to his credit, but he’s as risky as anyone. Bill James has as good of a guestimate as anyone, so I’ll go with that. If Lee does put up those numbers though, he doesn’t deserve to be drafted this high. Lee’s probably going to get drafted too high based on name recognition anyways, so none of this even matters at 15th overall.

#16 Chad Billingsley – SP – LA Dodgers

Bill James Prediction: 12-9, 189K, 3.69ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.81 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 201K, 9.03 K:9, 2.49 K:BB

Chad Billingsley is another sexy strike out guy that carries at least a bit of risk with him. As with Felix Hernandez, Billingsley’s risk is minimized by the ballpark he pitches in.

Generally, I’d sacrafice a bit of talent for a pitcher-friendly park or a weak schedule. Billingsley has all three. The teams in the NL west aren’t great. Most of the parks out there are extreme pitchers parks (SD, LA, SF) and Billingsley has crazy potential.

On the other hand, Billinglsey has some serious control issues. Billingsley can barely keep his walks per nine on the right side of 4.00 let alone 3.00.

Billingsley isn’t going to have a stellar WHIP because of this, and you’re probably going to be stuck with a 1.30, if you’re lucky.

Billingsley does make up for it with his crazy K:9 numbers, striking out more than a batter an inning which keeps his K:BB ratio at a respectable 2.50.

Billinglsey should improve this year, and I’d imagine his main focus would be control.

#16 Ricky Nolasco – SP – FLA Marlins

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 176K, 3.98ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.73 K:9

2008: 15 W, 3.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 186K, 8.06 K:9, 4.51 K:BB

I’m torn on Ricky Nolasco: There’s a lot of upside, but there’s a huge amount of risk.

There’s really no data to go off of, and if you draft him you’re more than likely in for a bumpy ride / sophomore slump. However, he put up great numbers, in what was essentially his first full season in the majors.

He put up such great ratios last year, and he pitches in such a pitchers park that he should be worth the cash-money. While I personally wouldn’t draft him in front of the next few guys he does have the potential to finish here with even the slightest increase in stats.

He’ll be much cheaper than the big name guys like Burnett, Lester, Vazquez and even Volquez.

At this point it becomes quite difficult to get high strikeout and low whip pitchers and his finish to the 2008 season is just too hard to look past.

#18 James Shields – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 14-10, 178K, 3.65ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.56 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160K, 6.70 K:9, 4.00 K:BB

Shields isn’t sexy and it’s iffy for him to pass 200K, but he should put up a stellar WHIP and ERA.

Some fantasy players end up falling in love with strikeouts and don’t pay nearly enough attention to a .10 decrease in WHIP or ERA. It’s easy to see the difference between 220 Ks and 190 but it’s a bit more difficult to wrap your head around the difference between a 1.35 and 1.19 WHIP.

It’ll be interesting to see whether 2008′s decrease in K rate is a permanent drop or just a temporary abberation. If Shields keeps his K:9 above 7.5 he’ll put up some great stats.

Shields stands out due to his gaudy K:BB ratio: 4.00K:BB is a great ratio for someone who strikes out as many batters as Shields does.

#19 Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-8, 174K, 3.58ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.51 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154K, 8.27 K:9, 1.64 K:BB

Dice-K is the Tracy McGrady of fantasy baseball. Just as McGrady will put up 20pts and 10 rebounds on 6-23 shooting; Dice-K will go and put up a 2.90 ERA while walking 5 batters per nine innings.

Each and every one of Dice-K’s stats lead you to believe that he’s primed for an off-year. A walk rate of 5.05 per 9, a BABIP of .267, a Left on Base percentage of 80.6% and a HR/FB ratio of 6.1 percent.

However, you get the feeling that if Dice-K stops nibbling on the corners and just pitches using his vast reservoir he’ll be just fine. He probably wont repeat his stellar 2008 season, as he was incredibly lucky, but he should be fine.

All of this is probably pointless considering that some fool will draft Dice-K far earlier than warranted.

#20 Francisco Liriano – SP – MIN Twins

Bill James Prediction: 11-8, 171K, 3.62ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.27 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 57K, 7.93 K:9, 2.09 K:BB

I’m making a habit of ending each list with a massive injury risk.

Liriano missed 2007 with Tommy John surgery after an incredible 2006 in which he posted a 2.16 earned run average, a 1.00 walks/hits per innings pitched, and a remarkable 10.71 strikeouts per 9 in 28 games and 121 innings.

In 2008, not quite a full year removed from TJ surgery, Liriano started the season struggling mightily. After a minor league rehab stint, Liriano came back and showed flashes of his previous self.

There’s reason for concern as well as optimism with Liriano going forward. Last year, he shied away from using his devastating slider too much in order to protect his elbow. Now two years removed from surgery, he’ll hopefully be back to normal but you should keep an eye on his velocity and pitch selection to know for sure.

In 2005 and 2006 Liriano threw his fastball about 45% of the time at around 95 MPH. In his first year back, he threw it more (54%) at a lower velocity (91MPH)

To preserve his elbow he threw his slider 26% of the time at 84MPH in 2008 which is much less than the 37% and 87MPH he threw in the previous two years.

With Liriano, it comes down to velocity and pitch selection. You’ll be able to tell quite early in spring training whether or not he has it this year. Liriano is still a great pitcher when he throws his FB at 91 and his slider at 84 — but he’s not the 10+ K per nine guy, who’ll win you a fantasy league.

#21 Yovani Gallardo – SP – MIL Brewers

Bill James Prediction: 13-9, 141K, 3.61ERA, 1.30WHIP, 9.23 K:9

2008: 0 W, 1.88 ERA, 1.25WHIP, 20K, 7.50 K:9, 2.50 K:BB

Gallardo was primed for a break-out 2008 season, and then his ACL exploded while covering first base. Unlike just about every other sport, an ACL injury isn’t a career changing injury for a starting pitcher. Gallardo actually stayed in the game and recorded five outs after tearing his knee up.

Gallardo managed to come back from knee surgery to pitch seven innings in the 2008 playoffs.

With that said, Gallardo has buckets of talent and should come close to a strikeout per inning. He should be fully healthy by spring training, and more importantly regained complete faith in his knee. You’d have to imagine he’d probably improve on his K and BB numbers.

He’s one of the top young pitchers in the game and Bill James and CHONE have him at 9.30 K per nine, while MARCEL has him at 8K:9IP.

There’s obviously some risk here, as Gallardo has only pitched 134 innings in the show. With such a small sample size, anything could potentially happen. Gallardo’s been around for what seems like a while, but he’s still only going to be 23 when the season rolls around.

There is the potential that Gallardo starts to get too much fantasy hype rolling into the 2009 season. Anything higher than 18th or 19th is really just too high for Gallardo. He has the talent to be a top 10 pitcher, but he also comes with a bunch of risk. Liriano probably has a bit more talent, along with a bit more injury risk than Gallardo. Gallardo’s risk is probably composed of 25% injury and 75% lack of data.

#22 Ervin Santana – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 177K, 3.90ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.59 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.12WHIP, 214K, 8.79 K:9, 4.55 K:BB

Santana put up some great numbers last year, as he finally put everything together. It all seems to come down to the number of batters walked, and essentially BB:9.

Santana walked fewer batters in 2008 (47) than in 2007 (58) while pitching 70 more innings. His BB:9 went from 3.5 in 2007 to under 2.0 in 2008.

I’m not sure where this came from, other than the fact he was getting a 67% first strike, and getting batters to swing 32 percent of the time at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%).

It looks like Santana should be able to maintain his success, but he’s 26 yet somehow managed to add a good chunk of velocity across the board. I’m not certain how easy it is to add velocity after a certain age, but the usage of performance enhancing drugs definitely crossed my mind. Increased work ethic would probably be a better way to explain the increase in velocity, but its hard to ignore PEDs as a possibility in this day and age.

Just for the record, his Fastball the past 4 years: 93.4mph, 93.1mph, 92.2mph, 94.4mph.

His Slider, same period: 81.0mph, 80.9mph, 81.0mph, 83.9mph.

#23 Ben Sheets – SP – Free Agent

Bill James Prediction: 13-8, 159K, 3.39ERA, 1.15WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.15WHIP, 158K, 7.17 K:9, 3.36 K:BB

SURGERY FOR MR SHEETS.  CHECK BACK in the DOG DAYS!

I’m not sure where Ben Sheets is going to go, nor am I sure if he’ll stay healthy enough in 2009 to pitch 200 innings.

There’s a lot of possibilities with Ben Sheets though, and you’ll probably want to cash in on it. Sheets will more than likely go to a contender, and be assured at least a few wins throughout the season.

As with many of the elite pitchers, drafting Ben Sheets is essentially a referendum on whether or not he’ll stay healthy.

Since Sheet’s unbelievable 2004, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. His 2004 season was jaw dropping, as he posted a 2.70 ERA to go with 264 strikeouts. In 2008 he almost reached 200 innings, but his K numbers dropped drastically.

From a high of 10K per nine in 2004, Sheets has slowly declined to his 2008 total of 7.17K per nine. Sheets still has the talent to put up a K per IP, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the decline continues.

Hopefully Sheets can bounce his K rate up to at least 8K per 9, and he’ll be golden. Keep an eye on where Sheets goes this off-season.

#24 Matt Cain – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 192K, 3.57ERA, 1.30WHIP, 8.11 K:9

2008: 8 W, 3.76 ERA, 1.36WHIP, 186K, 7.69 K:9, 2.04 K:BB

Matt Cain started out 2008, terribly — awful, Painful.

He managed to salvage his season with some stellar 10, and 11 K performances. He still sprinkled in some stat lines of 5ER in 6IP, but all and all he ended the season very well.

Cain’s a power pitcher, and he’s built like a brick shit-house — so injuries aren’t a concern.

He pitches in the NL west and the Giants have a great stadium, and a half decent defense. Cain’s fastball tops out around 95, and he’ll throw 3 other pitches at you. All four of his pitches can be used as strike-out pitches.

Cain should keep his K:9 somewhere around 8, and pitch 200 IP easily.

Cain’s a pretty safe bet, with some upside which is hard to come by. Most of the pitchers with room for improvement and upside are risky as fuck. Cain’s going to give you some solid innings, and some great strikeout numbers.

#25 Erik Bedard – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 5-5, 86K, 3.72ERA, 1.31WHIP, 8.7 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 73K, 8 K:9, 1.95 K:BB

What a 2008 Bedard had. An injury plagued, sporadically dominant, sporadically awful season had the Seattle media out for Bedard’s throat.

Bedard was traded for by Seattle idiot-GM, Bill Bavasi, who gave up roughly seven arms and two legs to get him ( Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler)

Bedard is one hell of a pitcher though: The question is whether or not he’ll actually want to pitch for Seattle. The media hates him, everyone in Seattle looks back at his acquisition as stooopid, and he’s injury plagued.

If Bedard wants to put up 220 innings and 200K’s, he will. Otherwise, he’s just going to sit out with every ache and pain and pitch less than 100 innings again.

The Mariners aren’t even sure what they want to do with Bedard going forward. There’s no way they can realistically get anything solid for him in a trade and unless he has a great year, he’s only going to garner Type-B compensation when he hits the Free Agent Market.

So, I think Bedard pitches crazy-awesome this year and leaves to further screw over the Mariners.

Go Canada.

#26 A.J. Burnett – SP – NY Yankees

Bill James Prediction: 14-11, 218K, 3.62ERA, 1.28WHIP, 8.76 K:9

2008: 18 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 231K, 9.35 K:9, 2.69 K:BB

A.J. Burnett is a top 12 pitcher if he stays healthy, which he more than likely do now that he’s a Yankee.

I’m a Blue Jays fan, and like all Jays fans; I think A.J Burnett is a douche-bag. Of course everyone understands that you gotta make the cheddar but A.J. never seemed to want to be in Toronto.

A.J. Burnett does have some of the nastiest stuff in the majors, and his curveball is argueably the best in the league. He’s been plagued with injuries throughout his entire career in Florida and Toronto.

At some point, I’ll move AJ up to his rightful place among the top 20 pitchers but I just have trouble believing A.J. will stay healthy let alone duplicate his stellar numbers from last year.

Hopefully Mr. Burnett crumbles under the pressure of New York, or decides to once again stop trying because he’s made his money.

#27 Javier Vazquez – SP – ATL Braves

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 195K, 3.80ERA, 1.24WHIP, 8.20 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 200K, 8.64 K:9, 3.28 K:BB

The Braves acquired Javier Vazquez late last year, when their talks with the Padres f or Jake Peavy fell through.

Vazquez is probably going to give you some of the best value in the 2009 draft. He’s got all the talent in the world, and has put up terrific ratios, but for some screwy reason always seems to put up 4.00+ ERA numbers.

With Vazquez’s return to the NL, you can assume that his already great 8.5ish K:9 is going to rise a wee lil’ bit. Vazquez striking out a batter an inning is not out of the realm of possibility.

Vazquez at 33 is starting to get up there in age, but over the last 4 years h is velocity hasn’t declined even a smidge. He’s still topping out on his fastball at around 94-95, slider 84mph, and curve about 74mph.

Last year Vazquez put up a stupid-silly .328 BABIP, and you’d have to assume that’d regress to career averages + the mean. Bill James properly predicts a BABIP of about .310.

Vazquez also does not get injured: The man keeps trucking along posting 200IP seasons.

All told, you should expect one hell of a season from Javier Vazquez and should draft him as high as 15th, if you’re risk-adverse.

#28 Edinson Volquez – SP – CIN Reds

Bill James Prediction: 11-11,191K, 4.08ERA, 1.41WHIP, 8.95 K:9

2008: 17 W, 3.24 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 206K, 9.45 K:9, 2.22 K:BB

Volquez has always had a solid repitoire of pitches, and a big boy fastball (94-95MPH). Last year came as a complete surprise however. Volquez had been regularly awful in Texas for the past 2 or 3 years.

He put up impressive 2008 pre-season numbers, and showed improved control — but pre-season numbers are generally deceitful.

Volquez pitches in the Great American Bandbox, and there’s no way in hell he’s going to put up similiar numbers. After the all-star break last year, Volquez put up a 4.60 ERA and gave up 9 HR which was a drastic increase from his first half stats.

He still managed to put up an incredibly respectable 3.24 ERA, but that’s going to balloon. His HR/FB ratio is definitely going to go up from 8, and his numbers will suffer.

#29 Carlos Zambrano – SP – CHI CUBS

Bill James Prediction: 13-9,163K, 3.56ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.48 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.29WHIP, 130K, 6.20 K:9, 1.81 K:BB

There’s no way Zambrano can live with himself after posting 6.20 strike outs per nine. In 2008, Zambrano became a bitch-ass soft-tosser rather than a burly 250lb power pitcher.

He decreased his BB / 9 down 3.43 after two years of 4.80 and 4.34BB per nine. While Zambrano’s increased control is reminiscent of his amazing 2004 & 2005 numbers, his strike out rate took a major hit.

Zambrano is pretty much useless if he’s not putting up at least 7.50K per 9, and I obviously expect a return to that. If Zambrano isn’t putting up at least a 2.00 K to BB ratio, he’s pretty much useless other than his contributions to Wins.

Wrigley is a half decent park to pitch in, until the winds start blowing out.

All and all, Zambrano is capable of putting up 200+ K’s and he’s got the frame to stay healthy. He’ll generally be around league average in WHIP, but he should be up solid win totals as Chicago is once again favoured to win the central.

#30 Jon Lester – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-11,168K, 4.02ERA, 1.40WHIP, 7.13 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.21 ERA, 1.27WHIP, 152K, 6.50 K:9, 2.30 K:BB

If Lester puts up similiar numbers to last year, there’s a couple pitchers that make more sense at this spot (Oswalt, Lilly, Garza).

However, Lester is a young guy who’s bound to improve. While Lester’s K per 9 decreased in 2008, he improved his control quite a bit, lowering his BB:9 from 4.43 to 2.82.

Pitching for Boston affords Lester a good chance at 20 Wins, and he’s Boston’s only reliable lefty. Last year, Lester was probably Boston’s best pitcher and while his dominance doesn’t transfer particularly well into the fantasy world; he’s primed for a break out year.

Lester’s a fairly safe bet, with decent potential. 200 strikeouts is probably a bit of a reach for Lester, but 18 Wins, 1.25WHIP, 3.25 ERA and 180K’s isn’t unreasonable. Lester will help you in all categories without hurting you in any one category.

Photo Of Liriano: Aturkus / Flickr