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Neftali Feliz is the closer.

Derek Holland scored the fifth spot in the rotation.

Mark Lowe is really screwing himself in the ass.

Brandon Webb suffered another set-back and will start on the DL.

So, if you were a Texas fan, you’ve got your answers.

Tommy Hunter is really the only uncertainty, now. He’s pitched like crap this spring and just tweaked his groin. Hunter managed to keep his ERA under 4.00 in 120 IP last year, but an 80% LOB-rate and a ridiculously low BABIP definitely contributed to that. Hunter’s xFIP, FIP and tERA were much closer to 5.00 than they were to his 3.73 ERA. His K-Rates are atrocious and he’s a long-reliever in disguise. He’s quite capable of cutting and sinking his low-90s fastball, but until he figures out how to get lefties out he’s a terrible option.

Texas just sent down Kirkman, a lefty that I wouldn’t trust to throw strikes if I were Texas. I’m neither here nor there on back-end of the Texas rotation, Holland excluded.

Tanner Scheppers, fire-breathing dragon, probably has Feliz’s job at some point in the future. I think it makes a hell of a lot more sense to have Scheppers as the closer and Feliz as a starter.

That’s that in Texas.

Neftali Feliz just put together one of the most electric seasons for a rookie reliever in a while, but he’s still lagging behind Aroldis Chapman in terms of hype. Chapman brings a couple more miles per hour and throws with the wrong hand, but they’re really quite similar.

And, they both face a similar dilemma. They’re both more valuable in terms of accumulating WAR if they’re starting, but being a manager isn’t just about putting value on the field. It’s about keeping the fan-base happy and mitigating enough risk to keep your job. Until the fans start calling for your head, your job is normally safe.

As it stands, the Rangers are absolutely loaded at starting pitcher but would lack a late-game go-to option if Feliz joins ‘em. C.J. Wilson and Colby Lewis are givens atop the Rangers’ rotation. Matt Harrison, Derek Holland, Tommy Hunter, Michael Kirkman and Alexi Ogando are also pitching well enough to warrant a spot. Then there’s that Brandon Webb guy who, if healthy, is the best of the bunch.

The only person that Ron Washington can trust to close games is Neftali Feliz and nothing turns a fan-base against you like late-inning implosions. Basically, Neftali Feliz is going to close unless the Rangers acquire someone in the next week. If there’s one thing that doesn’t make sense, it’s bouncing Feliz back and forth in and out of the rotation and if the Rangers were going to give into Feliz’s desire to start, they would’ve had this figured out a while ago.

For keeper leagues though, the story doesn’t end with 2011. Owners everywhere are wondering how to value one of the brightest young arms in the league. Actually, they’re wondering about two of the best and brightest, Aroldis and Neftali.

We’re basically looking at fastball one-a and one-b in the MLB along with a wicked curveball in Feliz’s case and a nasty slider in Chapman’s case. In the MLB, that’s enough to get guys out and succeed at a high level, but it’s not enough to be great on a consistent basis. MLB bullpens are filled with gentlemen that can heave a fastball and spin a breaking pitch, but the rotation almost always requires a third pitch, a change-up.

Matt Garza, David Price, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes and Yovanni Gallardo are all great pitchers, and some of ‘em even feature a slider and a curveball, but they’re still just second tier pitchers until they develop an off-speed offering that’ll move similarly to their fastball and ideally, sink while doing it. Garza and Price both rely on a two-seamer to get the job done and Gallardo actually moves on the mound based on the handedness of the hitter.

In 2009, Feliz actually featured a change-up with terrific movement and a huge speed differential despite hurling it between 85-87mph. In 2010, the pitch lost some of it’s luster and Feliz only threw it 3.5% of the time. There’s definitely upside to this pitch though and it gives me reason to believe that Feliz has a very good shot of getting through the line-up multiple times as a starter.

Chapman on the other hand is a mess and the lack of data doesn’t help. According to pFX, he doesn’t even feature a change-up. He didn’t feature it, because he didn’t need to (12.83 K/9) but the reports are all over the place. They start with “great change, but inconsistent” and I agree with the author that Chapman routinely tossing a 85mph change-up would be unfair, but as many of the other reports mention, he telegraphs the pitch and isn’t exactly the God of Command.

When it comes to these two pitchers, I think Feliz probably has a better shot at transitioning to an every day starter. I know this probably goes against conventional wisdom, but I’m not a Chapman fan and would much rather take the wait-and-see approach and trade for him in the future than save a couple bucks this year or next…

Dallas Braden left the Oakland loss in the fourth inning with a sore ankle.  Braden had issued an unearned run and three hits in four innings before allowing a couple walks and being pulled.  Braden believes that he’ll make his next scheduled start.

Braden’s counterpart, Jeremy Guthrie, pitched six innings allowing one earned run for the quality start.  Guthrie walked three batters while only striking out a couple. As I’ve said before, Guthrie’s a rate-stat only fantasy pitcher with a penchant for keeping his BABIP low by inducing groundballs and catchable flies.  Guthrie’s FIP, xFIP and tERA will always trend above his actual ERA but hoping for a continuation of 3.64 ERA is a pipe dream.  Jeremy Guthrie is the king of average, and you should probably expect that going forward.

Jake Peavy got lit up by the Sizemore-less Cleveland Indians.  Peavy allowed 6ER on 8H but only walked a single batter while striking out 5.  Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald went deep off of Peavy.  Peavy hasn’t looked like this since his second year in the league (2007) where he went 12-11 with an ERA of 4.11 and a FIP of almost five.  The strike-outs are still there (8.02K/9) but the walks have ballooned past 3 and a half.

Mitch Talbot lowered his ERA to 3.73 and WHIP to 1.28 with a 7 inning, 2 earned run ball game against the Sox.  At this point, shutting down the Sox is nothing to celebrate.  After starting the season with an ERA in the twos, Talbot’s had 3 bad games in his last five (Jays, Detroit, and KC).

Travis Hafner’s average is up to .281 after a couple of hits but it’s an empty average.  Hafner’s power is nowhere near his career mark and his ISO is under .150.  There’s some good news on the horizon though, just not 30HR news.  Over the last 8-games, Hafner’s managed extra bases (4Doubles, 1HR) in five.  Hafner’s working on a 12-Game hitting streak, too!  For someone that started May with a .197 AVG and .324 SLG, closing it out with a .281 AVG and .430 SLG is pretty impressive.

Jason Heyward went 2-for-4 with a couple RBIs and now has a .296/.415/.578 line which makes for one hell of a .992 OPS.

Cameron Maybin had 2 hits and a DINGER! but this is me ignoring those numbers.

Maybe Anibal Sanchez gets his own article after 6.1IP of 5H, 2ER, 6K baseball.

Life sure is good for Martin Prado who now has 32 Runs on the year after a 3hit, 1R night.  Batting ahead of Heyward et. al means 52% of your pitches will be in the zone and almost 65% will be fastballs.

Doumit hit a homer and Andrew McCutchen had a couple hits to raise his BA to .324.  McCutchen’s .371 BABIP is high for even him — he’s more of a .290 hitter.

Mike Leake magically turned 10 hits and a walk into only a single earned run.  Leake went 7.1 innings and struck out three — This kid can pitch and if this were a different year (read. no Heyward,) he’d be the odds on favourite to win the NL ROY.

Lester walked FIVE! batters and gave up one hit in his 6 inning, 0ER, 9K performance.  Despite the walks, he’s back to being Jon Lester, future Cy Young award winner. A single by Wily Aybar was the only hit on the day against Lester.  I’m starting to think that the Rays enjoy being no-hit.

James Shields allowed 2 ER, 4H, 2BB while striking out 5 over his 8 inning stint.  Shields pitched a terrific game and is still amongst the elite.

Mike Cameron is back, yet it was Ellsbury rather than Hermida that sat.

Jose Reyes stole 2 bases, had 3 hits, and scored 3 runs last night.  He is an elite shortstop, even if the power’s not there.

R.A. Dickey had 7K in 6IP but I’d rather not discuss a knuckleballer.  Dickey managed to get his way out of three bases loaded jams in the first three innings, so thing’s aren’t exactly exciting.

Derrek Lee hit a homer but the BA is still a concern — Lee’s hitting 21% LD and his BABIP is .262 so there’s definitely room for improvement. ZiPS has him hitting .280 the rest of the season.

Ryan Dempster looked great holding LA scoreless while allowing three hits while striking out seven and walking a single batter.

Clayton Kershaw only allowed 4 H and a couple of walks but it once again took him 100+ pitches to get through 6IP.

Vladdy Guerrero went off for a couple of DINGERS! in his 5RBI performance.  Hamilton and Cruz didn’t miss out on the action, each hitting one of their own.

Billy Butler continued his hot hitting with a couple hits and a walk.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gil Meche is hurt; something’s wrong with his delivery and presence. Meche gave up 6 R (4ER) on 4HR and has a 6.66 ERA on the year.

Rich Harden continues to test my patience after allowing 6R (5ER) against the Royals.  Neftali Feliz got the save and looks to be doing his thang.

Rickie Weeks went 3-for-5 with 2R, 2RBI and a HR.  Weeks still strikes out too much and doesn’t walk nearly enough but this may be a sign that his mid-May slump is over.

Recent call-up, Jonathan Lucroy, has a couple hits in his first two games.  Unfortunately, the ballsy catcher saw it fit to try and steal a base — fail.  Lucroy did steal 8 bases in A-ball a couple years ago, but I wouldn’t count on more than 1 at the MLB level.  Lucroy will more than like split the platoon with Kottaras while Zaun’s out.

Both Jhouyls Chacin and Ian Kennedy pitched a’ight games.  If I had to pick one going forward, Chacin’s electric stuff takes it.

Yah, that’s Troy Tulowitzki’s third homer in 3 games and 4th in 5 games.

In THE pitching match-up of the night, Jon Garland tossed 7IP of scoreless baseball for the win but was outpitched by Adam Wainwright who, aside from a solo-knock by Hairston Jr, pitched brilliantly.  Wainwright struck out 12 Padres while only allowing a single walk and four hits — that’s how the cookie crumbles, I guess.

Jose Bautista hit another homer, as did Jeremy Reed and Aaron Hill, but it wasn’t enough.  Aside from the Dingers!, Ervin Santana pitched a masterful game by locating his fastball and getting the Jays to chase that dirty slider.  Santana pitched a complete game 4-hitter with 10Ks — going forward, I wouldn’t be too worried about those HR.

Mike Napoli is on fire: 4HR in his last 5G and 5HR in his last 8G.

Doug Fister got yet another win from a 7 inning, 3R, 2ER, 1K performance.  This guy blows my mind.

Maybe Milton Bradley’s finally rounding into form with a homer and 3RBI last night.

Livan Hernandez is finally regressing!!!!

4ER in 5IP on 7Hits last night.

Excuse me if this is brief, I’ve always had a long-standing mantra when it comes to sports that affected last night:  The Playoffs Rule.  If there’s a playoff game on in any of the four major sports leagues, it takes precedence.  As a Canuck, I probably should be more of a hockey fan but I’m not; it’s baseball and football for me.  With that said, I was pretty excited that the hockey team that plays in a market with winter beat the hockey team that plays in California in an overtime bonanza.  Today, the Canadian team will face the American team at 3:00PM as to not disrupt the 8:20PM Basketball game.

Shin-Soo Choo hit a couple of dingers in the CLE/CIN game.  Choo has a freaky way of maintaining a ridiculously high BABIP, so don’t worry about his .355 BABIP.  The LD% is down but remember that Choo had a .367 and .370 BABIP over the past couple years.  With Choo’s walk-rate up and K-Rate down, he should have absolutely no problem posting a 20-20 season in Cleveland.

Kerry Wood gave up a homer in a non-save situation but also struck out a couple of batters.  Wood’s probably an injury risk and Chris Perez has been solid but at this point, the stuff is there.

Joey Votto stole a couple bases — that’s 6 on the year.  I think Votto’s finally entered the “elite” category of first basemen, but keep an eye on his 50% GB-Rate.

Lefty J.C. Romero retired two batters to get the save for the Phillies against the Red Sox.  Romero relieved Baez, who’d put a man on first and second, in a 4-run game.  Romero got J.D. Drew to ground-out (advancing the runners) before plonking Beltre.  Finally, Romero got David Ortiz to fly out to deep-center.  Romero was more than likely brought in to deal with the lefties and did just that; even if it wasn’t pretty.

Jimmy Rollins was back atop the lineup with Victorino hitting behind  Ibanez.

Tim Hudson shutdown the Pirates.  Hudson has a 2.09ERA and a 3.88K/3.43BB rate — guh.  Obviously, Hudson’s gawdy 66% GB-Rate has been keeping him elite but at some point, the .213 BABIP and 87% LOB-Rate will abandon him.  I don’t see this ending well.

The Orioles are actually starting to hit:  Adam Jones had his first homer since April 24th.

Javier Vazquez got well against the Mets.  Takahashi pitched a very solid game for his first start: 6IP, 5H, 1BB, 0ER, 5K.  Takahashi is now striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP with a 2.91 tERA and a 3.56 xFIP.  Definitely someone to take a look at in deeper leagues (even with a Mets’ bullpen that has WHIPs that resemble ERAs)

Colby Lewis shut down the Cubs even though he walked 3 in 6 IP.  Lewis is striking out a batter per inning and is a solid bet to post a sub-4.00 ERA on the year.  Lewis is going to his Slider quite a bit more than previous years — it’s up to 30% and the Curve’s down to 8% versus last year’s 13% SL/23% CU split.

That’s 12 Saves on the season for Neftali Feliz.  I don’t understand why Texas gave up so soon on the dream of Neftali being a starter but to each his own, I guess.

Brett Myers is now (3-3) on a 15-27 Houston team.  Seven strike-outs in seven innings certainly doesn’t hurt his value.  Myers allowed a single unearned run in the first inning.  Myers is still a grade-A douchebag but his O-Swing is up 5% and his contact-rate is down 5%.  Myers also hasn’t seen his Swinging Strike percentage at 9 in a couple of years.  Myers has been going to his slider more often which has the best downward movement in his career.

Matt Lindstrom picked up his 10th save of the year and has his BB-Rate below 2.  A 3.75 K:BB Matt Lindstrom is a very useful Matt Lindstrom.  He’s left 93% of runners stranded but every other indicator shows that Lindstrom is just better.

Mark Buerhle pitched a great game: 8IP, 3H,  3K.  Buerhle does this from time to time before reminding the world that he’s spectacularly average. Sergio Santos pitched the ninth and struck out a couple batters.  This is me tooting Carlos Quentin’s horn for the third straight day.

Nick Punto was the only Minnesota Twin to not touch home plate and score a run last night.  Nick Blackburn is now 5-and-1.  That’s that for that 15-3 rout.

Jose Guillen hit a couple more DINGERS!  Twenty-two percent of his fly-balls are going for a long ride over the fence.  Unless you’re a baseball purist, there’s absolutely no reason to dislike the hilarity that follows Jose Guillen.

Colby Rasmus tripled for his lone hit of the day.  As a Rasmus owner, I’m absolutely terrified.  Rasmus is striking out 35% of the time and has a .368 BABIP.  Rasmus has a .930 OPS and has been graded AAA by Moody’s, S  & P and Fitch — Obviously, it’s buying time. Banking Sarcasm!

I can’t believe I turned off the Blue Jays / Diamondbacks game last night.  The Diamondbacks (397K) are number one in strike-outs and the Blue Jays (361K) are number 2.  Almost as if these two things were connected, the Blue Jays are number 1 in DINGERS! (72) and the Diamondbacks are number 3 (56 HR).

Here’s the DINGERS! from last night’s game:  Fred Lewis, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, Chris Young.

In six and two-thirds innings, Trevor Cahill struck out four and only walked one.  Walks will be the biggest factor in Cahill’s development.  I love the kid.

Cliff Lee got the win after giving up 7ER?  The weird part is that the Padres didn’t take a single walk, they just aimed and fired en route to 15 hits.

Mike Sweeney hit a couple of DINGERS! but really doesn’t deserve too much attention at this point.

Austin Jackson had two more hits and is still hitting 36% line-drives.

Homer Bailey went seven strong innings against the Brewers, giving up 4H, 2BB and a couple ER.  Bailey settled down well after giving up both earned runs in the first.  He relied heavily on his fastball (71%) but his change-up looked better than it had in a couple starts.

Jay Bruce stole a base and collected a couple hits off lefty, Manny Parra.  Bruce has slowly been improving his platoon splits but it’s still quite sensible to sit him against top-tier lefties.  Jay Bruce is now hitting .280 on the year after a .223 ’08 campaign.  Bruce may be striking out more in 2010 but his swing-rate and swinging strikes are both down.  More importantly, Bruce has upped his walk-rate by swinging less outside of the zone.  You get the feeling that a break-out month is on the horizon for Jay Bruce.

Casey McGehee continued to absolutely punish the baseball with 3 hits on Tuesday.  After a 2009 season where McGehee owned the fastball, he’s been doing most of his damage this year on off-speed stuff.  McGehee’s BABIP isn’t spectacularly high — it’s actually the same .330 it was last year – but with only 10% of his hits as line-drives, there’s some concern.

The Toronto Blue Jays continued to light up mistake prone pitches against the Twins and Carl Pavano.  Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion all went yard.  Blue Jays not named Aaron Hill or Adam Lind will eventually regress but I’m not going to be the one to predict it.  With Hill’s homer and Adam Lind’s 2-hit game, their batting averages now sit at .175 and .231, respectively.  Adam Lind will have trouble duplicating his 2009 break-out season without cutting his Ks down to 2009 levels:  currently, he’s at 29% versus 19% in 2009.

Shaun Marcum continues to dominate with control after missing all of 2009 but the ERA is a bit lucky.  Expecting something closer to 2008′s 3.40ERA rather than 2010′s current 2.61 ERA seems to make sense.  Marcum’s ability to move the fastball and place the change-up wherever he damn-well pleases is extraordinary.

Rick Porcello’s sinker just isn’t sinking which is a problem when your value’s tied up in ERA and WHIP. At this point, I’m having major issues seeing Porcello’s upside, especially if he continues to walk almost as many batters as he’s striking out. Rick Porcello walked another 3 batters last night in a very mediocre performance (7IP, 4ER, 8H, 3BB, 2K) against the White Sox.

With 2 Hits and a steal, Brennan Boesch is now hitting .387 on the strength of a .426 BABIP.  The rook’s slugging percentage sits at a darling .680 but this can only last so long with a BB-Rate of 3% and a 51% O-Swing.

Andruw Jones went 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts last night; Can you believe Jones has 7 SB on the year?

Thankfully for White Sox fans, Bobby Jenks pitched a pretty clean 9th inning:  1H, 0BB and 2 Ks.  Sergio Santos walked a couple in one inning’s work to raise his WHIP to 1.08.  Hitters are only hitting .165 against Santos and his very live fastball (AVG Speed: 95.6mph).

Florida spanked Arizona eight to nil on Tuesday.  Justin Upton was the only Diamondback position player to record a hit — which he bundled with another 2 SO, lovely.

Cameron Maybin hit in the 2-hole and recorded a homer, a walk and a strike-out.  The kid’s still hitting just .242 (on a .341 BABIP) and striking out 32.6% of the time.

David Price pitched another solid game for his sixth win of the year.  I’d really like to see Price return to the BB numbers of 2008 (2.57) before I fully endorse him as elite, though.  While Price is getting a bit lucky on balls in play, he’s still pitching incredibly well with a 3.06 FIP and a True ERA (tERA) of 2.91.

Ben Zobrist is still without a homer, but i’d hardly call him a major disappointment after his 7th steal of the year.  His .340 BABIP is almost negated by a 5% increase in line-drives over last year.  The major concerns that I have with Zobrist is his huge jump in O-Swing (’09: 19%, 10: 27%) and decline in BB-Rate (’09: 15%, ’10: 10%).

The Royals and Orioles game was a thriller, just ask the reported 9,715 fans that showed up at Camden to take in the baseball super-event.  Kevin Millwood, a man that I’ll never roster, continued his hot streak going 8 strong innings, striking out seven without a walk.  Millwood’s ERA is now 3.65 on the year and he’s striking out more than 7 batters per 9.

Jose Guillen had two more hits and is now batting .261 with 8HR.  Guillen has quietly gone about matching his 2009 power numbers in about half the games.  He’s already accumulated one more double, one fewer homer, seven fewer runs, and 15 fewer RBI in 41 fewer games.

Zack Greinke got yet another no-decision, despite 7IP, 2ER, 6K and 1BB.  That’s one whole win on the entire year, folks.  If there’s anyway that you can acquire Greinke, I’d do it.  He’ll still end up with at least 10-12 wins on the year.

I’m a bit sensitive about Josh Beckett as the former Texas Highschooler was one of my first ever keeper picks.  In 4.2IP, Beckett gave up another 3ER — That’s good for a season ERA on the wrong side of 7.

C.C. Sabathia allowed a single run in seven solid innings but I’m somewhat concerned about the strike-out and walk totals.  C.C. has a habit of starting out poorly but he’s barely striking out six batters per nine and walking almost 3-per-9.  He should eventually round back into form before that .239 BABIP catches up to him.

Roy Halladay’s complete game, two ER, six K, performance was out-dueled by Zack Duke et. al.  Evan Meek pitched another solid inning in relief, striking out one and walking another.  On the season, Meek has a ERA of 0.69 and has managed to strike-out a batter per inning while only walking 2.42-per-9.  Evan Meek’s added a couple of MPH across the board and his average fastball hitting 95mph is starting to look closer-worthy.  All the plate discipline indicators show that hitters are having trouble with his stuff; it’s just a matter of sustaining the BB-Rate, which he’s lopped in half since 2009.

Ike Davis hit a dinger, his first in a couple weeks.  While the strike-outs are worrisome, he’s walking almost 16% of the time.  There will inconsistency but Davis has looked pretty good thus far:  .275 AVG /.393 OBP/ .466 SLG.

Kris Medlen continued to prove his case with 6.1 innings of 4 Hit ball.  Medlen allowed a couple homers while striking out six and walking a couple.

I have absolutely no fucking clue how Carlos Silva continues to pitch this well.

Five walks in just over five innings got Jhoulys Chacin into trouble.  He still managed to strike-out six batters and his season ERA is now at 3.12.  If Chacin can keep his K:BB on the right side of two, he’ll have success going forward.  Expect the normal bumps and bruises, though.

Carlos Zambrano pitched a perfect ninth: two strike-outs and no walks!  The Cubs want him and his gigantic salary back in the rotation, which at least gives Big-Z owners hope.

Tyler Colvin took advantage of the playing time, knocking in a run and scoring a couple on three hits.  I’m not sure how the Cubbies can make this work but this kid needs to see some consistent at-bats.

Carlos Gonzalez had two hits for the Rockies but there is something dirty about his 2.7% BB-Rate hitting lead-off.

Ian Kinsler hit his first dinger of the year to help Texas beat the Angels.  On the season, Vladdy Guerrero now has eight homers after another one last night.  The question is not if Guerrero will come up with a bum hamstring but when.

Neftali Feliz is rounding back into form, pitching a scoreless ninth with two K’s.

At what point do the Angels just give up on Brandon Wood? Another hitless game for Wood.

Felipe Lopez lead off for the Cardinals last night.  You know the deal with Lopez, he’ll score runs and steal bases but it won’t be pretty.  I’ve got a feeling that Lopez might return to his 20 SB days after stealing just 14 over the course of the previous two years.

Six hits over two games was all it took Ian Desmond to raise his batting average from .246 to .279 — Wonky, eh?    This is a guy that flashed 30SB potential throughout the minors but it’s yet to translate.  In 2009, across two levels and a cup of coffee (AA-AAA-MLB,) Desmond stole 22 Bases.

Felix Hernandez got hit pretty hard (11H, 2BB) without it translating into ER (3).  Ben Sheets came back down to earth as he walked 4 more batters en route to 4ER.

Kurt Suzuki had 3 hits to raise his batting average from .239 to .264.  He’s still a viable option at catcher.

The story of the extra-innings game between the Padres and the Giants was Mat Latos.  Neither Latos nor the Padres got the win thanks in part to Mike Adams’ blown save in the eighth.  Mat Latos’ WHIP now sits just below 1.00 in part because he’s given up just 1 walk in his previous three starts.  Definitely someone worth locking your sights on.

Bud Norris exploded yet again against the Dodgers.  With a couple of hits and a homer, Carlos Lee may finally be starting to heat up.

Ron Washington, a man of many talents, has decided to temporarily hand the reins over to fire-baller, Neftali Feliz.

Francisco started out 2009 slow and is repeating the routine in 2010.

Frank didn’t start out slow on the scoresheet though, he didn’t allow a run until May 31st.  Rather, his velocity wasn’t up to par for the first few games of the 2009 season.  Francisco started out 2009 throwing 93mph and maxing out around 95mph.  He eventually kicked it into gear and started regularly hitting 95mph.  Francisco’s breaking stuff isn’t terrific, outside of the change of velocity, so it’s important for him to beat you with the fastball.

In 2010 though, Francisco is lacking velocity across the board.  His fastball has yet to top 94mph and is averaging a paltry 92-93mph, almost 2 full miles per hour slower than his peak in 2009.  His change-up has declined as well, which makes me question Frankie’s health.

Francisco’s going to get some time to rest up as he relinquishes his 9th inning duties, but if he doesn’t start hitting — nay, exceeding — 95mph very soon, he’ll have a hard time regaining the closers gig.

I still think Texas would prefer Neftali Feliz in high-leverage situations, rather than *just* a closer.  Feliz has the ability to throw for multiple innings and it seems premature to pigeonhole Feliz as a closer. Feliz did pitch 77 innings in AAA last year, acting primarily as a starting pitcher before moving to the pen about a month before being called up.

If Frank Francisco gets dropped in your league, I’d say he’s a definite add while you monitor his velocity.  Texas has yet to sell me on Neftali Feliz, the closer, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Francisco gets at least a couple shots to regain his role if he first regains his velocity.

Back in 2007, a couple weeks after Mark Teixeira Scott Boras turned down an 8-year / 140M offer from the Texas Rangers, Teixeira was promptly shipped off, alongside Ron Mahay, to the Atlanta Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and a handful of the Braves’ top-prospects.

The deal made sense at the time as Teixeira was expected to re-sign with the Braves for a tidy sum. With Andruw Jones coming off the books, the Braves would have cash to throw around and the possibility of a long-term switch-hitting duo of Chipper and Teixeira would excite anyone.

At the very least, the Braves dealt from their organizational strengths:  Saltalamacchia was a terrific prospect and ranked as the 36th overall prospect by Baseball America, but was blocked at catcher by then 23-year old, Brian McCann.

With Saltalamacchia the centerpiece, the additional pieces were 2 of the remaining 3 Braves’ prospects in the 2006 edition of Baseball America’s Top-100. Elvis Andrus ranked 65th with an ETA of 2010, and Matt Harrison was the 90th best prospect who appeared close to major league ready. The Rangers luckily declined the Braves final top-100 prospect, baby-faced Brent Lillibridge.

The Braves were loaded with pitching prospects (Tommy Hanson, anyone?) and Yunel Escobar and Brent Lillibridge seemed to be capable shortstops negating the loss of the injury-plagued Harrison, and 18-year old Andrus.

In the play-off hunt with Canadian, Scott Thorman, manning first base was a problem for the Braves.  Teixeira was a premiere upgrade at the Braves’ weakest position and although the Braves missed out on the play-offs — it wasn’t that bad of a trade, was it?

Ron Mahay has proven to be a LOOGY to the bitter end and is still pitching moderately well for the Kansas City Royals at not-quite 38-years old.  In 2007, Mahay compiled a 2.25 ERA in 28 Innings for the Atlanta Braves and was generally considered a useful bullpen member.

The Braves gave up two more prospects though, one of which was Beau Jones who’s currently in AA-Frisco as a 22-year old.  Jones has a live arm and has posted around a strike-out per inning at every level thus far.  At the time, Jones impressed with his mid-90′s fastball and solid hook. Baseball America ranked Jones as Atlanta’s 10th best prospect in 2006 and he has a fairly realistic shot at eventually making the show as a number 4 or 5-type guy.

The final prospect was a doozey in Neftali Feliz.  In rookie ball at the time, 18-year old Feliz had garnered some buzz, but wasn’t quite as hyped as some of the other Braves pitching prospects. Scouts saw Feliz’s fastball touch triple digits and were floored, it was just a matter of whether or not he could control his mid-90′s heat. The MiLB is filled with guys that can throw hard but all too often can’t harness their power. Feliz had only thrown 56 Innings for the Braves at that point, but had impressed mightily regardless of his control issues (4+BB/9).

At this point, Feliz was a high-ceiling prospect, nowhere near Baseball America’s  93rd best prospect as he was in 2008,  and definitely not the same pitcher that Baseball America currently ranks as the 10th best prospect in all of baseball.

The ETA of the now 20-year old Feliz shot from 2011 to 2009, over the course of a single year.  Arguably the 4th best prospect in the deal behind Salty, Harrison and Andrus, Neftali Feliz may turn out to be a steal and considering his current trade value; Feliz could already be considered the best value in the deal.

It’s hard not to wonder whether or not Feliz would have been included in the deal if the Braves would have acquired their left-handed bullpen help elsewhere.

We all know how this ends, the Braves didn’t make the playoffs and finished third in the NL East.  Teixeira was awarded a 1-year, 12.5 million dollar arbitration settlement, but was shipped off to the Angels at the deadline after it became clear that a long-term deal wasn’t likely.  Teixeira played out his year, and is now a member of the New York  Yankees…because his wife likes shopping?

In retrospect, the Atlanta Braves obviously gave up too much as they were unable to resign Teixeira.  They did manage to turn Teixeira into Casey Kotchman, and the Angels’ tenth overall prospect in Stephen Marek but that comes nowhere close to negating the loss of Saltalamacchia, Feliz, Harrison, Andrus and Jones.

The hypothetical question still remains: In a standard dynasty league with no limit on years-kept, would you trade Mark Teixeira for the aforementioned Rangers’ haul?

Teixeira, although currently hitting .182 AVG / .354 OBP / .338 SLG for the New York Yankees, is a lock to hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs well into his thirties.  In the initial draft of a  12-team dynasty league, Teixeira would go late first round / early second round, as he’s still only 29 years old.

Andrus, the defensively gifted speedster, already has shifted Michael Young to third base and is hitting a respectable .274 in his first big league season.  Andrus is still raw, posting a 0.33 BB:K ratio and a .308 OBP, but he’s already stolen 3 bases without getting caught. In Double-A Frisco last year, Andrus stole 54 bases in 118 Games which lead the projection models to predict anywhere from 29 to 51 stolen bases given starters at-bats. In the potent Texas Rangers’ line-up, Andrus should quickly become an above-average fantasy contributor based solely on his SB & R potential.

Saltalamacchia, after an injury plagued 2008 effort, seems to be back on track — well, sort of.  Saltalamacchia, a switch-hitting catcher, has always sported an above-average eye; generally keeping his BB% on the right side of 10%.  In 2009 thus far, Saltalamacchia is hitting a respectable .279, but has only walked 5% of the time while striking out nearly 35% of the time. Saltalamacchia’s line of .279 AVG / .313 OBP / .443 SLG is driven up by his ridiculously lucky .395 BABIP and regression should be expected. Saltalamacchia hasn’t come close to fulfilling expectations, but continues to hold off Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez. Saltalamacchia is still only 24-years old and should continue to improve. Saltalamacchia isn’t among the elite fantasy catchers, but considering his age, he still should rank somewhere around the top-12 dynasty league catchers.

The Rangers couldn’t have dreamt of a better progression for Neftali Feliz.  As mentioned earlier, Feliz has tremendous stuff and is well-deserving of Baseball America’s 10th overall prospect label.

In deeper keeper leagues or dynasty leagues with a minor league system, Neftali is a must-own.  Playing in Arlington should temper expectations, but he still has a dirty repitoire. Of Baseball America’s top-20 prospects, Number 10 Feliz sits in admirable company: Number 2 – David Price, Number 4 – Tommy Hanson, Number 7 – Brett Anderson, Number 9 – Madison Bumgarner, and Number 11 – Trevor Cahill.

Feliz should see some action late this year as a September call-up, so long as Texas doesn’t miraculously stick around in the playoff hunt.  Expecting dominance this year may  be a stretch, but Feliz could be dominant as soon as late next year.

Finally, onto Beau Jones and Matt Harrison, the final two peices in the deal.  Unless you’re in a 50-team dynasty league, you’re probably forgetting about Jones and Harrison.  You should probably keep an eye on the intriguing Matt Harrison though. Harrison’s had some elbow issues and 2009 hasn’t  been pretty, but the talent’s still there. Harrison’s a four-pitch pitcher featuring 91mph fastball, 86mph slider, 76mph curveball, and an 82mph change-up.  At this point, his ERA is north of 6.00 and he’s only managed to strike out 12 batters which matches the number he’s walked, in 26 Innings Pitched.

Saltalamacchia and Harrison were arguably the two biggest pieces to the original Teixeira trade, but to this point have been overshadowed by the massive potential of Andrus and Feliz.

In a deep keeper league of 14 teams or more, Teixeira for Feliz, Andrus, Saltalamacchia and Harrison would be an interesting one to say the least.  Anything under 14-teams and you probably have to lean the way of Teixeira because of that old saying, “a bird in the basket is worth two in the bush, ” or put in language that we can understand: ” a girl in the sac is worth ten numbers in your pocket. ”

In keeper leagues, prospects are nice and all but it never turns out the way it should.

Some Readings:

Rangers Happy With Teixeira Trade Returns, MLB.com

Rangers Future Bright Thanks To Teixeira Trade, MySanAntonio.com

Baseball America’s Top 100 (2009) (2008) (2007)

Braves trade Teixeira for Kotchman, ESPN.

I’ve created the list of the best keepers for your dynasty league, and now it’s time to give a little follow-up as to why they’ve fallen into their corresponding places.

When ranking players, I generally analyze them in this order:

1. Big League Experience
2. Talent with heavy emphasis on K-Rate & BB-Rate for younger players.
3. Opportunity / Age
4. Ball Park
5. Random Tie-Breaker Determined By Gut Feeling

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Tim Lincecum – SF Giants – 24 - Perfect combination of all of the criteria. His slight frame may lead to injuries at some point however.
2. Cole Hamels – PHI Phillies – 25 – I favour lefties, they tend to stick around for a while.  Injury concerns are mounting, but he’s still entrenched at number 2.
3. C.C. Sabathia – NY Yankees – 28 – Sabathia seems like he’s older than 28.  Motivation is the only question with Sabathia.  Arrival in NY will up his W totals.
4. Johan Santana – NY Mets – 30 – Best pitcher in the game, but he’s starting to get up there in age.
5. Felix Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22 – He’s been around forever, but he’s still as young as they come.  He’ll eventually come around.
6. Chad Billingsley – LA Dodgers – 24 – Massive K potential, in a solid park with a solid line-up all but guarenteed year in and year out.
7. Jake Peavy – SD Padres – 27 – Still has five Ace-like years left in him, and a couple more top-20 pitchers-type years left.
8. Dan Haren – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Coming into his own since his arrival in the desert.
9. Zack Greinke – KC Royals – 25 – Maybe I have him a bit high, but everything’s in place for Greinke to be good for a long, long time.
10. Yovani Gallardo – MIL Brewers – 23 – Injured last year, but it wasn’t his arm.  No reason to doubt that Gallardo will fill in perfectly for the oft-injured Ben Sheets.

11. Scott Kazmir – TB Rays – 25 - An Injury waiting to happen, but he’s good, young and a lefty.
12. Clayton Kershaw – LA Dodgers – 21 – Maybe Price belongs here, but right now I’m liking Kershaw a bit more.
13. Francisco Liriano – MIN Twins – 25 - Liriano has all the talent in the world, but if the Twins limit the use of his slider to prolong his career– he’s ranked too high here.
14. Josh Beckett – BOS Red Sox – 28 - Injuries have plagued his career, and those gosh-darn blisters probably extended his career by a year or two.
15. James Shields – TAM Rays – 27 - Shields has really blossomed, and this is the year we’ll see if he’s f’real.  He posts amazing ratios, and pitches for a terrific Tampa team.
16. Daisuke Matsuzaka – BOS Red Sox – 28 -  Sooner or later those innings are going to catch up to him.  As Dice-K’s skill-set declines, he’ll become a better pitcher that relies on his stuff rather than nibbling on every god-forsaken corner.
17. Scott Baker – MIN Twins – 27 – Baker’s had the potential, and it looks like Minnesota knows what to do with these young guys.
18. Jon Lester – BOS Red Sox – 25 -  I’m still not completely sold on the big lefty.
19. Joba Chamberlain – NY Yankees – 23 – Who knows how the Yankees will end up using him in the long-run.
20. David Price – TAM Rays - Yup, 20th overall.  Give me more than 19 professional starts, and I’ll buy the hype.  If you’re a risk taker, Price is top-10 material, easily.

21. John Lackey – LAA Angels – 30 – I expect improvement over the next couple years from Lackey, even if he’s already 30.
22. Brandon Webb – ARI Diamondbacks – 29 – Sinker baller will continue to post amazing win totals and ratios.
23. Roy Halladay – TOR Jays – 31 – Probably still has a few great years left in him.
24. Max Scherzer – ARI Diamondbacks – 24 - I like Mad-Max, and the tools are there.  He needs to work on his control, a smidgen though.
25. Rich Harden – CHI Cubs – 27 – Top-5 Stuff, Top-1 Injury Risk.
26. Edison Volquez – CIN Reds – 25 – Control problems, and The Great American Ballpark will make for a very bumpy ride.
27. Clay Bucholz – BOS Red Sox – 24 – One of the best young pitchers in the game.  The only question is when he’ll get the opportunity to showcase his stuff without 3 guys breathing down his neck. Next year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Bucholz cracks the top 10.
28. John Danks – CHI White Sox – 23 – Unheralded on the south side. Danks is a top-tier talent with great stuff.  One of the better risk/reward type guys at this stage.
29. Kevin Slowey – MIN Twins – 24 – Ratio’s keep him a viable as a top-flight fantasy pitcher.
30. Adam Wainwright – STL Cardinals – 27 – If Wainwright doesn’t dominate this year, it’s time to give up hoping he’ll be a top 10-15 pitcher.

31. Ricky Nolasco – FLA Marlins – 26 – Young and talented, just like every other member of that Marlins staff.  His second half last year was ridiculous.
32. Roy Oswalt – HOU Astros – 31 – Not much to say here.  Expect a steady decline from here on out.
33. Matt Garza – TAM Rays – 25 – Showed his worth in last year’s playoff push.  Great at spotting the fastball.
34. Ervin Santana – LA Angels – 26 – Added to his repertoire last year, and he’s still young enough to continue improving.  Expect a solid career out of this youngin’
35. Matt Cain – SF Giants – 24 – Life is going to be easier for this former top-prospect. Living in Lincecum’s shadow will allow him to excel.
36. Cliff Lee – CLE Indians – 30 – I am not, in any way, ever going to be a fan of Cliff Lee.
37. Brandon Morrow – SEA Mariners – 24 - High Risk, High Reward.  I don’t think he takes off until after the all-star break. He can throw that speed ball by ya, and make you look like a fool, boy.
38. Fausto Carmona – CLE Indians – 25 – He’s flying up draft-boards again this year. This sinkerballer has a lot left in the tank, even if the K’s will never be elite.
39. Carlos Zambrano – CHI Cubs – 27??? – I don’t believe he’s 27.  His control has abandon him.  If Zambrano can get those WHIP numbers down, he’ll elevate his game big time.
40. Erik Bedard – SEA Mariners – 30 – Bedard was a top 5 pitcher 2 years ago, but injury robbed him of his 2008 season.  Still lots of potential here.

41. A.J. Burnett – NY Yankees – 32 – Burnett was the hardest pitcher on this entire list to gauge.  He’s a talented strike-out pitcher, and he’s got a great line-up behind him.  He’s also a massive injury risk, and 32 years old.
42. Justin Verlander – DET Tigers – 26 – He’ll regain it, the question is when.
43. Andrew Miller – FLA Marlins - 23 – I’m huge on Andrew Miller and he’ll dominate as soon as this year.
44. Johnny Cueto – CIN Reds – 23 – Solid pitching prospect going into last year. He looked great in spurts.  I’m worried about injuries in the future.
45. Jared Weaver – LA Angels – 26 - Weaver’s a very solid pitcher, with lots of room to improve.  He’ll be one of the biggest surprises this year.
46. Ubaldo Jiminez – COL Rockies – 25 – If he can get out of Colorado, he’ll be golden.  As it stands, he’s just a great young pitcher with a tremendous fastball.
47. Josh Johnson – FLA Marlins – 25 – Solid as a Rock, but not as sexy as Miller.
48. Brett Myers – PHI Phillies – 28 – If he can put it together, he’ll be solid for at least 5 more years.  Myers is a roller coaster.
49. Chris Volstad – FLA Marlins – 22 - Young Marlins pitchers dominate this board, and Volstads experience last year bumps him above some prospects with better stuff.
50. Jeremy Guthrie – BAL Orioles – 29 – Finally putting it all together.  Should be a break-out guy in 2009.

51. Jair Jurrjens – ATL Braves – 23 – Jurrjens is a solid but safe bet if you’re going for a youngster you’d like to keep around for a while.
52. Chien-Ming Wang – NY Yankees – 29 – Lots of Groundballs, and Lots of Wins.  His lack of strike-outs really hurt him.
53. Phil Hughes – NY Yankees – 22 – Hughes has looked awful in the bigs, but believe it or not he’s one of the best young pitchers out there.
54. Ben Sheets – FA – 30 – Maybe you’ll get 4 more injury plagued years from Sheets? Other than Burnett, Sheets was the next hardest to place.
55. Chris Young – SD Padres – 29 - I love Chris Young this year, next year, and the year after that.  He puts up great ratios in PETCO and strikes out more than his fair share.
56. Mike Pelfrey – NY Mets – 25 – Young Met should finally live up to the hype this year.
57. Brett Anderson – OAK Athletics – 21 – Anderson ranks first among prospects with no big league experience at 57th overall! 57th!  Anderson and the next 5 or so prospects have all of the talent in the world, but I’m not risking my future on more than one of them until I see something tangible.
58. John Maine – NY Mets – 27 - The Maine Event should turn things around this year.
59. Javier Vazquez – ATL Braves – 32 – I’d say you have about 3 more years of very good K numbers.
60. Aaron Harang – CIN Reds – 30 - Harang was awful last year, and he’s a better pitcher than his rank would indicate.

61. Jesse Litsch – TOR Jays – 24 – I don’t like Litsch and think he’s a massive injury risk.  Ever since the cut-fastball invaded the Blue Jays camp, pitchers have went down one after the next.
62. Oliver Perez – NY Mets – 27 - Entering his prime, still has room to improve.  Probably will never be that 200K guy Pittsburgh had.
63. Trevor Cahill – OAK Athletics – 21 – Trevor Cahill and Brett Anderson both top Tommy Hanson due to Oaklands park.  They also are both vying for a roster spot this year, while Hanson has already been sent down.
64. Paul Maholm – PIT Pirates – 26 – He’s quietly putting together a very solid career.
65. Manny Parra – MIL Brewers – 26 - Talents there, but where’s the control?
66. Dustin McGowan – TOR Jays – 27 - Out for a few months, but he’s a good bet to pitch for  a while longer
67. Tommy Hanson – ATL Braves – 22 - Hanson has dominated the AFL and ST, but he won’t start the year for Atlanta.  Him and Anderson are neck and neck for the best pitching prospect.
68. Jonathan Sanchez – SF Giants – 26 - Control, Control, Control — Get some.  Great K’s from Sanchez, though.
69. Joe Saunders – LA Angels – 27 - Pretty gosh darn boring at this point.
70. Ryan Dempster – CHI Cubs – 31 - Getting up there in age, but should be a steady source of K’s

71. Neftali Feliz – TEX Rangers – 20 – I hadn’t the slightest clue as to where I should put Feliz.  Who knows where he starts the year, and who knows where he finishes it.  He’s got a ridiculous arm, but needs to work on the whole not walking batters thing.  Can he flourish in Texas though?  If you have roster room, Feliz makes for one of the more interesting keepers.
72. Armando Galarraga – DET Tigers – 27 - Boring filler entering his prime.  Some Upside here.
73. Gil Meche – KC Royals – 30 – Boring filler leaving his prime, some upside here too!
74. Justin Duchscherer – OAK Athletics – 31 - Injured filler somewhere around his prime.  Duchscherer’s injuries really put me off, and I wouldn’t touch him in a keeper league.
75. Wandy Rodriguez – HOU Astros – 30 - Great K potential and could be a late bloomer.
76. Shaun Marcum – TOR Jays – 27 - Great pitcher who’ll miss all of 2009 with injury.
77. Ted Lilly – CHI Cubs – 33 - You can probably expect a year or two before the tires fall off — at least he’s left handed.
78. Carlos Carrasco – PHI Phillies – 22 - Young and talented, and might just have a job as the Phillies 5th starter.
79. Gavin Floyd – CHI White Sox – 26 - Once, a top prospect. Later, a bust. Currently, somewhere inbetween.
80. Nick Adenhart – LA Angels – 22 - Adenhart makes for an interesting pick.  He’s not quite top-tier talent, but he’s close.  He pitched some last year, and looks to have a job this year.

Finally, the last 50 pitchers are just listed with the interesting ones bolded.

81. Ian Snell – PIT Pirates – 27
82. Derek Lowe – ATL Braves – 35
83. Chris Tillman – BAL Orioles – 22
84. Franklin Morales – COL Rockies – 23
85. Scott Lewis – CLE Indians – 25
86. Tim Hudson – ATL Braves – 33
87. David Purcey – TOR Jays – 27
88. Rick Porcello – DET Tigers – 20
89. Brian Matusz – BAL Orioles – 22
90. Derek Holland – TEX Rangers – 22

91. Jordan Zimmermann – WAS Nationals – 22
92. John Lannan – WAS Nationals – 24
93. Anibal Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25
94. Jon Garland – ARI Diamondbacks – 29
95. Carlos Villanueva – MIL Brewers – 25
96. Gio Gonzalez – OAK Athletics – 23
97. Sean Gallagher – OAK Athletics – 23
98. Andy Sonnanstine – TAM Rays – 26
99. James McDonald – LA Dodgers – 24
100. Jeremy Bonderman – DET Tigers – 26

101. Wade Davis – TAM Rays – 23
102. Jake McGee – TAM Rays – 22
103. Hiroki Kuroda – LA Dodgers – 34
104. Adam Miller – CLE Indians – 24
105. Edwin Jackson – DET Tigers – 25
106. Randy Johnson – SF Giants – 45
107. Collin Balester – WAS Nationals – 22
108. Homer Bailey – CIN Reds – 22
109. Justin Masterson – BOS Red Sox – 24
110. Ian Kennedy – NY Yankees – 23

111. Nick Blackburn – MIN Twins – 27
112. Brad Penny – BOS Red Sox – 30
113. Michael Bowden – BOS Red Sox – 22
114. Jarrod Parker – ARI Diamondbacks – 19
115. Aaron Cook – COL Rockies – 30
116. Jeremy Hellickson – TB Rays
117. Andy Pettitte – NY Yankees – 36
118. Jonathon Niese – NY Mets – 22
119. Josh Outman – OAK Athletics – 24
120. Jeff Samardzija – CHI Cubs – 24

121. Mark Buehrle – CHI White Sox – 30
122. Bronson Arroyo – CIN Reds – 32
123. Jeff Francis – COL Rockies – 27
124. Micah Owings – CIN Reds – 26
125. David Bush – MIL Brewers – 29
126. Randy Wolf – LA Dodgers – 32
127. David Huff – CLE Indians – 23
128. Radhames Liz – BAL Orioles – 25
129. Gaby Hernandez – SEA Mariners – 22
130. Todd Wellemyer – STL Cardinals – 30
131. John Smoltz – BOS Red Sox – 41
132. Clayton Richard – CHW – 25
133. Kelvim Escobar – LAA – 32
134. Casey Janssen – TOR Jays – 27
135. Chris Carpenter – STL Cardinals – 33
136. Scott Richmond – TOR Jays – 29
137. Koji Uehara – BAL Orioles – 33
138. Kenshin Kawakami – ATL Braves – 33

…and done.  The pitchers are the end tend to be filler, with the possibility of contributing for another year or two or youngins who have a shot of falling flat on their face and becoming end of rotation-type guys.

Feel free to comment and tell me why your guy is ranked too low.