Liriano is one of my favorite players and I’ve written a bunch of pieces about his injury and subsequent come-back from Tommy John. In 2010, the fantasy world welcomed back Francisco Liriano, fantasy stud, and bid adieu to Francisco Liriano, soft-tosser.

With the way that Francisco Liriano threw that slider, injury was bound to happen and his come-back has shown that he’s not only regained most of his velocity, but also learned how to pitch.

Obviously, when you look at Francisco Liriano, the first thing you want to eye is his absolutely filthy slider. Unfortunately, the PFX graphs aren’t available for 2006, but we can view his return to dominance pfx-style:

Slider (red): What’s not pictured is how often he threw that deadly pitch. In his first season back, he only threw it 14% of the time, then in 2009 he upped it to 25% and then upped it again to almost 32% in 2010.

Prior to the injury, Liriano was tossing it about 38% of the time, so he’s regained the frequency, but he’s yet to regain the 87.7mph average velocity (and that’s probably a good thing).

More importantly, you can see the progression of nasty-ass movement on the pitch. What’s terrifying is that Fangraphs’ linear weights still viewed Liriano’s slider as an above average pitch when it was barely breaking 0 on the vertical axis. In 2010, Liriano added almost 3 inches of vertical movement while touching about 86mph.

It’s mind blowing, at least to me, that Liriano’s slider remained a positive pitch throughout his recovery and his success just depended on how often he threw it. If Liriano can put together another season of tossing the slider at least 30%, he’s in for another stellar season

Fastball (4seam/Green & 2seam/Blue): This is where Liriano really made leaps and bounds. His fastball’s never really been a killer pitch, but in 2010 the pitch was almost as effective as 2006. Unlike 2008 and 2009, Liriano rarely threw a straight fastball in 2010, but when he did it came close to the velocity of the golden years. Instead, Liriano opted for a two-seamer that you can see pictured in blue (underneath the yellow in many cases). Liriano’s two seamer had almost 4 additional inches on both the horizontal and vertical planes versus his straight fastball. Because of this, Liriano posted one of his best ground-ball percentages of his career with 54% being worm-burners. Liriano also allowed the fewest percentage of line-drives in his career; all and all, it was a great year for Liriano.

Change-Up (yellow): When you don’t have your favorite play-toy for a couple years, you gotta find a new one. Liriano’s always going to have an effective change because of his other stuff, but he’s really refined the pitch over the past couple of years. With the return of his velocity on the fastball, the change has followed suit and thus, the differential of about 10mph has been maintained. Additionally, Liriano’s change-up has added a couple more inches of drop and tail with the increased velocity which is the opposite of what you’d expect.

2010 to 2011: Room For Improvement?

This is where it starts to get scary because Liriano posted a BABIP of .319 against lefties and .335 against righties. Both numbers are considerably higher than his career averages, especially against righties. His HR/FB ratio should increase slightly, but I have a feeling that with his two-seamer in full effect, it won’t top 10%.  I doubt Liriano will ever return to the days of a 30% O-Contact Rate, 76% Z-Contact, 65.4% Contact and an incredible, 16.4% Swinging Strike rate but he’s currently still well above average in every regard.

Will he Stay Healthy?

I don’t know, I really don’t. Throwing that slider 30% of the time, even with decreased velocity, is a bit risky. It seems like the fans are predicting about 200IP out of Liriano which means about 200K. Liriano’s more than capable of busting into the top-10 in terms of strike-outs even if he tops out at 200IP. ESPN has Liriano’s ADP at 89th overall which seems like quite a few people believe he won’t get to 200 IP.

I’m not one of those people. I think Liriano has a very real shot of breaking into the top-ten or even winning the Cy Young.

But then you read something like this:  http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/116575908.html and cringe.

Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson said he asked Liriano whether he did all of his shoulder exercises during the offseason, and Liriano said no.

“He’s been doing them here, and now his shoulder is strong,” Anderson said.

BDPP80, Matt Bashore of the Minnesota Twins, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Neither, really.

Projected Value: Medium

Coming into the season there was a fairly good shot that Bashore would end up drafted ahead of Arnett — That didn’t happen.  Bashore slide to the 46th overall spot and ended up signing for about 750K.

Bashore’s definitely going to have a hard time building up steam, but there’s still a chance.  If you can swing an unbelievable deal on his cards or just pull one, you’ve gotta keep it.  It’s not going to fetch enough money on the secondary market to warrant selling it unless you’re able to list it incredibly early.

With that in mind, Bashore’s still has size and pitching-hand going for him.  It’s not exactly easy to find big lefthanded starters, so the Twinkies will definitely invest time into the kid.

There’s definitely room to grow, and Bashore appears to have the right mindset but he’s a true prospect.

Bashore definitely leaves you wanting more.  He’s definitely capable of growth, but doesn’t quite have the flash or the polish on the breaking pitches that you’d like to see.

Kevin Slowey’s won four of the five games he’s started without posting gaudy statistics by any stretch of the imagination.  When you’re Kevin Slowey and your fastball tops out at 90mph, you have very little room for error.  With that said, Kevin Slowey knows how to get people out and that’ll go a long way in the big leagues and on your fantasy squad.

Other than his 4W in 5GS, Slowey has been average across the roto-board: 5.17 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, and 23 strike-outs. However, Slowey’s advanced statistics make him an intriguing trade-target at this juncture.

Of the pitchers that have pitched at least 20 Innings, Slowey leads the pack with an 11.50 K/BB rate.  The next guys on the list? Halladay (7.6) , Haren (7.2), Greinke (5.5), Johnson (5.33), Bedard (5.33) and Vazquez (5.25) — Good Company.

Unlike the majority of the pitchers in the top-15 in K:BB, Slowey doesn’t achieve his gaudy number as a result of a high K-Rate.  Slowey has great control and he knows how to use the defense behind him.

In 31.1 Innings, Slowey’s walked two batters which is good for a 0.57 BB/9.   Slowey won’t keep this up, but he relies on control and should at least be able to maintain a BB/9 of around 1.50.  Slowey’s currently striking out just over six and a half batters per nine, which is right in line with league average. If Slowey ever notched his K/9 over 7ish, he’d be treading the fine-line between fantasy-steal and top of the rotation stud.

So long as you don’t have to watch Carlos Gomez and Denard Span chase down those deep fly-balls, finding a way to trade for Kevin Slowey is probably a safe bet. If you’re a Twins fan, I’d recommend drinking Peptobismol prior to watching Slowey record some of the longest outs in baseball.

If Kevin Slowey ever started walking people, it’d be almost impossible to recommend a career 0.71 GB/FB pitcher in the AL Central. Thankfully, Slowey tends to keep the damage to a minimum when hitters do take him yard.

With all of these caveats in mind, now’s the time to acquire Kevin Slowey.  Slowey’s BABIP is currently sitting at .374 and should eventually drop to league average or below.  This has lead to a hit-heavy 1.44-WHIP and .332 BAA and hopefully opened up a trade-window in your league.

Slowey’s inducing more swings outside of the zone and less contact on those swings.  Slowey’s achieved this by getting more horizontal movement on both of his off-speed offerings this year, and I’d expect these numbers to continue which could lead to that magic-mark of  7+ K/9.

Kevin Slowey is always going to be hittable, but batters are currently making contact with 93% of pitches they’ve swung at inside of the strike zone.  I would expect this to trend towards the Major League average of 87% with the possibility of Slowey matching or bettering his 2008 number of 85.7%.  I get the feeling that this is a result of Slowey throwing more strikes ( Zone percentage up 2 percent,) and making mistakes in early April.

With all of that said, Kevin Slowey is a much better pitcher than his 5.17 ERA would indicate. Slowey’s Fielder Independent Pitching ERA tends to agree as it sits at a cozy 3.99.

I’d go out of my way to acquire him, and a 3.60ish ERA, with 6.90-7.00 K per 9, and a great WHIP (1.12-1.15 range) should be in store for Slowey.

If you drafted Liriano, you’re stuck with him.  After two lackluster outings, you probably will have to trade him for seventy-five cents on the dollar, which I wouldn’t recommend.

Liriano did however look anything but a fantasy ace today against the Chicago White Sox giving up 5 ER in 4.2 IP.  Liriano allowed 4 walks, 6 hits to go with 3 strike-outs.

This comes after he lead off the season with a 7 IP, 4 H, 4ER, 3K performance against the lowly Seattle Mariners.

Undergoing Tommy John surgery, nearly two and a half years ago, in the fall of 2006, Liriano should be good to go by now — he’s not.

Unfortunately, MLB’s GameDay data magically dissappeared for today’s outing against the White Sox, so we’ll have to rely on the miniscule sample size of the Seattle game.

Liriano’s base-line for awesomeness:

1. Throw Hard: 95mph average fastball in 2005-2006
2. Throw Slider: 37% of the time, at 87.7mph

Unfortunately, these are the qualities that caused Liriano to undergo Tommy John surgery, and these are the qualities he’s shying away from.

In 2008,  a year and a half after undergoing Tommy John surgery, it was clear that Liriano was protecting his elbow.  His fastball averaged out at 91mph, and his slider at 83.7mph. Liriano also shyed away from his slider, throwing it 10% less than previous years.

There was optimism though; Over the course of the season Liriano slowly began adding velocity to his fastball and slider, eventually raising their velocities to 91.2mph and 84.9mph.

The movement was still there, but it’s far easier to achieve the same movement at lesser speeds.

Francisco Liriano in 2009

Fastball 91.9mph, Slider 85.4mph. Liriano also threw his slider about 30 percent, which we can’t gather too much from, considering it’s only one game.

Liriano’s velocity is up from the previous fall, but it’s still nowhere close to where it was when he dominated.

The question becomes whether or not he’ll ever return to that point, and the answer is, probably not.

What made Liriano ridiculously unhittable was the amount of movement he achieved on a slider thrown so hard.  Batters would flail at pitches, and just look silly — this is how Liriano managed to post almost 11 strike outs per 9, in his first full major league season.

There is a glimmer of hope, which I’ve omitted purposely up until now, and that’s Liriano’s change-up.  The pitch has ridiculous potential, and he’s going to have to use it to be successful.

Liriano still may add another mile per hour onto all of his pitches, but I’m pretty certain the Twins will limit him.  They already screwed up once allowing him to pitch a full 200 innings between levels in 2008.

It’s a shame that the PFX cameras were down in Chicago, as I’ve been planning on watching this start for a week.  Alas, with an improved change-up, Liriano can still be a high-sevens strike-outs per 9 pitcher –  It’s not the end of the world.

Unfortunately, batters will continue to swing less and make more contact against Liriano, which’ll drastically decrease his fantasy value. With batters swinging less at pitches Liriano throws outside of the zone, Liriano will have to improve his control to succeed.

The things Liriano got away with in the past, are indeed, the past.

I’m not saying dump Liriano, but I am saying monitor his average velocity and pitch distribution very carefully over the coming weeks.

Photo Courtesy of Jon McNab

Derek Carty over at the Hardballtimes.com profiled Delmon Young late last year, and it’s a solid read.  It does however repeat what every fantasy owner already knows:

Young is a young guy who is a good athlete and a scout favorite—and has breakout potential on this basis—but improved numbers in 2009 will have to come from legitimate skill growth or good fortune.

In case you’re unsure of the Delmon Young story, here’s a quick recap.  Young was drafted first overall by the Tampa Bay Devil Rays, way back in the year 2003, as  a standout highschooler.

Young smash-killed the ball in the low-minors as an 18 and 19 year old. During his time in the minors, Young ranked no lower than 3rd overall on the Baseball America Top-100 Prospects list.

Then the Devil Rays rushed him through Triple-A and called him up to the bigs as a 20-year old and thus began Delmon Young’s power outage.

Young’s always been young for his level, and at this point in his career people are actually starting to give up on him with good reason.  The Minnesota Twins outfield is pretty jam-packed, and Delmon Young isn’t even guaranteed a starting spot.

Gomez and Span can both play center or left, possibly even right field.  Cuddyer’s got a great arm,  and is a solid corner outfielder who should be playing in RF.  These leaves Young, and Pirdie as the 4th and 5th outfielders vying for one of the starting spots.

It looks like Kubel, who could still play outfield in an emergency, will be manning the DH spot. Right now it looks like it’s really going to come down Delmon Young and Denard Span battling for the LF job. Cuddyer isn’t the epitome of health; so Young will nab RF at-bats even if he ends up starting the season as the 4th outfielder.

With that said, there’s absolutely no statistical data that says Delmon Young’s heading for improvement.  He’s not getting unlucky, he’s not being effected by a poor park.  When things look this bad for a former top-prospect / man-child, you’ve gotta assume that their pride is going to be taking a huge hit.

Athletes, even when they’re getting paid insanely massive-jumbo-jumbo amounts of money, are still competitive as all hell.  This is why I’m predicting one of those breakouts that two-months from now everyone will say they called it.

Delmon Young is still a very young 23 years old. Absolutely nothing points to him getting better, other than the fact he’s 23 years old.

With a late round pick, why not pick someone with all of the talent in the world?  Delmon Young lacks focus, he definitely makes up for in bat-throwing ability.

As the case with all of the sleepers that I recommend based on nothing more than a gut feeling, don’t draft them too high.  You can just cut bait with Delmon Young a month into the season if he still hasn’t displayed focus and better strike-zone judgment. Even if Young remains a free-swinging enigma, he still has the possibility of succeeding by ensuring he uses those quick wrists of his.

Here’s some of that off-season MLB.com fodder that says every players in better shape and ready for a breakout season:

“I feel really good right now,” he said. “At one point my body composition had changed a lot, but my weight stayed the same. Now, since we’ve been doing more power lifting the last month, the weight has been coming off. I just feel good.”

Photos Courtesy of Keith Allison and Trev Stair, Flickr

Joe Mauer’s a stud, and probably the most balanced catcher in the league.  Mauer brings everything you’d want from a catcher to the table, and that’s why he sits squarely in the heart of of the Minnesota Twins batting order.

Joe Mauer - Dan H - Flickr

While Mauer realistically has only 15-17 HR pop in his bat, his batting average and on-base percentage more than make up for it.

Only Brian McCann can rival Mauer for OPS at the catcher position.  Geovany Soto’s ability to post another .500 SLG season is at least somewhat questionable, in my humble opinion.

Mauer had surgery over the off-season, almost 3 full months ago now, to eliminate a kidney obstruction.

Unfortunately, Mauer’s still got a sore back and his status for opening day is in major question. Mauer will be underoing an MR anthrogram in the next couple days, reports MLB.com.

I originally ranked Mauer as the top available catcher, assuming full health.  As the top-tier of catchers is so tightly packed, it’s time for a Mauer Free-Fall.

Brian McCann takes over the number one catcher spot, even if the Braves line-up is a snooze.  Russell Martin maintains solid value despite a projected decline in steals. Having Ramirez entrenched in that Dodgers line-up will help Martin’s counting stats substantially. Soto and Mauer now sit as 3A and 3B on my list.

Mauer’s game relies on his extroidinary hand-eye coordination which leads to an amazing batting average.  Power and speed are relatively easy to turn on, but hitting for average takes time.

A bad back for a catcher is bad news. Whether or not Mauer brings value will depend largely on the knowledge of your league.

Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009: Eleven to Thirty.

#11 John Lackey – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 11-9, 141K, 3.81ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.25 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130K, 7.16 K:9, 3.25 K:BB

Bill James isn’t kind to John Lackey, and his predictions seem a bit low to me. Lackey has a good chance to raise his K:9 to at least 8 or 9 which combined with 200-220 IP should lead to a 200K season.

His other ratios have continued to improve throughout his career, so expecting a season of 8K per 9, and 2BB per nine seems about right. Along with a decent WHIP of 1.20ish, and a decent ERA.

He put up an ERA of 3.01 in 2007, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops it below 3.00 after a full year of recovery from his strained bicep issue of 2008.

This list is obviously more about value than actual draft position. John Lackey may not be drafted as the 11th best pitcher — but he’ll more than likely produce at this level. I’m not sure how long you can wait on Lackey as he looks to be bouncing up draft boards.

#12 Felix Hernandez – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 11-12, 188K, 3.86ERA, 1.35WHIP, 8.25 K:9

2008: 9 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 175K, 7.85 K:9, 2.19 K:BB

I find it hard to believe that Hernandez will settle into a career WHIP of 1.35-1.40. In 2008, he walked 3.59 batters per nine innings which is up from 2.51 the year before.

Hernandez has some of the best stuff in the league, and last year was just a mess for the entire Seattle organization. It’s not unthinkable that Hernandez will drop his walks back down to the mid-to-low twos.

If Hernandez can stop walking batters, he’ll become the dominant pitcher that everyone’s been waiting for. A decrease in BB would probably result in a drop in ERA, and obviously WHIP.

An ERA of 3.35, and a WHIP of under 1.30 is a good possibility. I think this is the year Hernandez really puts it together and capitalizes on his unbelievable talent.

There’s obviously a good amount of risk here, but pitching at Safeco eliminates a chunk of that risk. It’s somewhat worrisome to see his Line Drive percentage rising over the past few years.

#13 Scott Kazmir – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 10-8, 177K, 3.80ERA, 1.35WHIP, 9.83 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 166K, 9.81 K:9, 2.37 K:BB

Once again, Kazmir comes with a bit of risk. Kazmir is a guy that can put up almost 10K per 9, along with a 1.25ish WHIP. However, expecting a full 220 innings from him is a bit of a reach.

Currently, I’m banking on about 200 IP from Kazmir in 2009. As with Lincecum is just scary to see such a small guy throw the ball 90+ MPH. Kazmir also has a dirty slider to go with his 92mph heat.

As with Sabathia, Halladay and Beckett, I’m somewhat worried about AL East Pitchers. The offenses are now so stacked that there isn’t a break in the schedule.

Who knows how many wins Kazmir will garner, but I expect a pretty solid 2009 season from Scott Kazmir.

#14 Zack Greinke – SP – KC Royals

Bill James Prediction: 12-10, 156K, 3.98ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.24 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 183K, 8.14 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

I’m about as high on Zack Greinke as one can get. Hell, I”ll finance Greinke’s depression meds if he ever falls back off the wagon.

When Greinke came into the league, he was supposed to be the next big thing — then he shat the bed, developed social anxiety, and just stopped caring.

Now, Greinke is back and fulfilling his potential. If anyone comes out of nowhere to post a 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 220 Ks — It’s Zack Greinke.

Greinke has four damn good pitches, with his fastball pushing 94-95ish on a good day. He has amazing control, and I have a pretty big man crush on him.

One of my favourite websites, The Hardball Times, has a great article on Greinke. Apparently I’m not the only one in love with Greinke.

Realistically, I’d be willing to rank Greinke as high as 9th on this list if he starts shooting up expert charts. I’d have absolutely no problem trading Zack Greinke for Josh Beckett straight up. He’ll give you a good return on investment, wherever he’s drafted.

#15 Cliff Lee – SP – CLE Indians

Bill James Prediction: 14-9, 146K, 3.90ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.77 K:9

2008: 22 W, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170K, 6.85 K:9, 5.00 K:BB

I’m not a Cliff Lee fan, but I’m not sure how much further I can drop him after his 2008 Cy Young season. Who knows what kind of win totals Lee will put up in 2009, but Cleveland still has a good bullpen that’s been bolstered by the acquisition of Kerry Wood.

I still think Lee is risky, though. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him drop a 4.00 ERA on his owners. Lee’s always put up solid WHIP numbers, but when you examine last year in detail it just doesn’t seem sustainable.

Lee allowed less than half a HR per 9 and dropped his BB per 9 down to 1.37 after averaging around 1+ HR/9 and somewhere between 2.5 and 4 walks per 9.

Cliff Lee may have a Cy Young award to his credit, but he’s as risky as anyone. Bill James has as good of a guestimate as anyone, so I’ll go with that. If Lee does put up those numbers though, he doesn’t deserve to be drafted this high. Lee’s probably going to get drafted too high based on name recognition anyways, so none of this even matters at 15th overall.

#16 Chad Billingsley – SP – LA Dodgers

Bill James Prediction: 12-9, 189K, 3.69ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.81 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 201K, 9.03 K:9, 2.49 K:BB

Chad Billingsley is another sexy strike out guy that carries at least a bit of risk with him. As with Felix Hernandez, Billingsley’s risk is minimized by the ballpark he pitches in.

Generally, I’d sacrafice a bit of talent for a pitcher-friendly park or a weak schedule. Billingsley has all three. The teams in the NL west aren’t great. Most of the parks out there are extreme pitchers parks (SD, LA, SF) and Billingsley has crazy potential.

On the other hand, Billinglsey has some serious control issues. Billingsley can barely keep his walks per nine on the right side of 4.00 let alone 3.00.

Billingsley isn’t going to have a stellar WHIP because of this, and you’re probably going to be stuck with a 1.30, if you’re lucky.

Billingsley does make up for it with his crazy K:9 numbers, striking out more than a batter an inning which keeps his K:BB ratio at a respectable 2.50.

Billinglsey should improve this year, and I’d imagine his main focus would be control.

#16 Ricky Nolasco – SP – FLA Marlins

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 176K, 3.98ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.73 K:9

2008: 15 W, 3.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 186K, 8.06 K:9, 4.51 K:BB

I’m torn on Ricky Nolasco: There’s a lot of upside, but there’s a huge amount of risk.

There’s really no data to go off of, and if you draft him you’re more than likely in for a bumpy ride / sophomore slump. However, he put up great numbers, in what was essentially his first full season in the majors.

He put up such great ratios last year, and he pitches in such a pitchers park that he should be worth the cash-money. While I personally wouldn’t draft him in front of the next few guys he does have the potential to finish here with even the slightest increase in stats.

He’ll be much cheaper than the big name guys like Burnett, Lester, Vazquez and even Volquez.

At this point it becomes quite difficult to get high strikeout and low whip pitchers and his finish to the 2008 season is just too hard to look past.

#18 James Shields – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 14-10, 178K, 3.65ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.56 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160K, 6.70 K:9, 4.00 K:BB

Shields isn’t sexy and it’s iffy for him to pass 200K, but he should put up a stellar WHIP and ERA.

Some fantasy players end up falling in love with strikeouts and don’t pay nearly enough attention to a .10 decrease in WHIP or ERA. It’s easy to see the difference between 220 Ks and 190 but it’s a bit more difficult to wrap your head around the difference between a 1.35 and 1.19 WHIP.

It’ll be interesting to see whether 2008′s decrease in K rate is a permanent drop or just a temporary abberation. If Shields keeps his K:9 above 7.5 he’ll put up some great stats.

Shields stands out due to his gaudy K:BB ratio: 4.00K:BB is a great ratio for someone who strikes out as many batters as Shields does.

#19 Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-8, 174K, 3.58ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.51 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154K, 8.27 K:9, 1.64 K:BB

Dice-K is the Tracy McGrady of fantasy baseball. Just as McGrady will put up 20pts and 10 rebounds on 6-23 shooting; Dice-K will go and put up a 2.90 ERA while walking 5 batters per nine innings.

Each and every one of Dice-K’s stats lead you to believe that he’s primed for an off-year. A walk rate of 5.05 per 9, a BABIP of .267, a Left on Base percentage of 80.6% and a HR/FB ratio of 6.1 percent.

However, you get the feeling that if Dice-K stops nibbling on the corners and just pitches using his vast reservoir he’ll be just fine. He probably wont repeat his stellar 2008 season, as he was incredibly lucky, but he should be fine.

All of this is probably pointless considering that some fool will draft Dice-K far earlier than warranted.

#20 Francisco Liriano – SP – MIN Twins

Bill James Prediction: 11-8, 171K, 3.62ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.27 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 57K, 7.93 K:9, 2.09 K:BB

I’m making a habit of ending each list with a massive injury risk.

Liriano missed 2007 with Tommy John surgery after an incredible 2006 in which he posted a 2.16 earned run average, a 1.00 walks/hits per innings pitched, and a remarkable 10.71 strikeouts per 9 in 28 games and 121 innings.

In 2008, not quite a full year removed from TJ surgery, Liriano started the season struggling mightily. After a minor league rehab stint, Liriano came back and showed flashes of his previous self.

There’s reason for concern as well as optimism with Liriano going forward. Last year, he shied away from using his devastating slider too much in order to protect his elbow. Now two years removed from surgery, he’ll hopefully be back to normal but you should keep an eye on his velocity and pitch selection to know for sure.

In 2005 and 2006 Liriano threw his fastball about 45% of the time at around 95 MPH. In his first year back, he threw it more (54%) at a lower velocity (91MPH)

To preserve his elbow he threw his slider 26% of the time at 84MPH in 2008 which is much less than the 37% and 87MPH he threw in the previous two years.

With Liriano, it comes down to velocity and pitch selection. You’ll be able to tell quite early in spring training whether or not he has it this year. Liriano is still a great pitcher when he throws his FB at 91 and his slider at 84 — but he’s not the 10+ K per nine guy, who’ll win you a fantasy league.

#21 Yovani Gallardo – SP – MIL Brewers

Bill James Prediction: 13-9, 141K, 3.61ERA, 1.30WHIP, 9.23 K:9

2008: 0 W, 1.88 ERA, 1.25WHIP, 20K, 7.50 K:9, 2.50 K:BB

Gallardo was primed for a break-out 2008 season, and then his ACL exploded while covering first base. Unlike just about every other sport, an ACL injury isn’t a career changing injury for a starting pitcher. Gallardo actually stayed in the game and recorded five outs after tearing his knee up.

Gallardo managed to come back from knee surgery to pitch seven innings in the 2008 playoffs.

With that said, Gallardo has buckets of talent and should come close to a strikeout per inning. He should be fully healthy by spring training, and more importantly regained complete faith in his knee. You’d have to imagine he’d probably improve on his K and BB numbers.

He’s one of the top young pitchers in the game and Bill James and CHONE have him at 9.30 K per nine, while MARCEL has him at 8K:9IP.

There’s obviously some risk here, as Gallardo has only pitched 134 innings in the show. With such a small sample size, anything could potentially happen. Gallardo’s been around for what seems like a while, but he’s still only going to be 23 when the season rolls around.

There is the potential that Gallardo starts to get too much fantasy hype rolling into the 2009 season. Anything higher than 18th or 19th is really just too high for Gallardo. He has the talent to be a top 10 pitcher, but he also comes with a bunch of risk. Liriano probably has a bit more talent, along with a bit more injury risk than Gallardo. Gallardo’s risk is probably composed of 25% injury and 75% lack of data.

#22 Ervin Santana – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 177K, 3.90ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.59 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.12WHIP, 214K, 8.79 K:9, 4.55 K:BB

Santana put up some great numbers last year, as he finally put everything together. It all seems to come down to the number of batters walked, and essentially BB:9.

Santana walked fewer batters in 2008 (47) than in 2007 (58) while pitching 70 more innings. His BB:9 went from 3.5 in 2007 to under 2.0 in 2008.

I’m not sure where this came from, other than the fact he was getting a 67% first strike, and getting batters to swing 32 percent of the time at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%).

It looks like Santana should be able to maintain his success, but he’s 26 yet somehow managed to add a good chunk of velocity across the board. I’m not certain how easy it is to add velocity after a certain age, but the usage of performance enhancing drugs definitely crossed my mind. Increased work ethic would probably be a better way to explain the increase in velocity, but its hard to ignore PEDs as a possibility in this day and age.

Just for the record, his Fastball the past 4 years: 93.4mph, 93.1mph, 92.2mph, 94.4mph.

His Slider, same period: 81.0mph, 80.9mph, 81.0mph, 83.9mph.

#23 Ben Sheets – SP – Free Agent

Bill James Prediction: 13-8, 159K, 3.39ERA, 1.15WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.15WHIP, 158K, 7.17 K:9, 3.36 K:BB

SURGERY FOR MR SHEETS.  CHECK BACK in the DOG DAYS!

I’m not sure where Ben Sheets is going to go, nor am I sure if he’ll stay healthy enough in 2009 to pitch 200 innings.

There’s a lot of possibilities with Ben Sheets though, and you’ll probably want to cash in on it. Sheets will more than likely go to a contender, and be assured at least a few wins throughout the season.

As with many of the elite pitchers, drafting Ben Sheets is essentially a referendum on whether or not he’ll stay healthy.

Since Sheet’s unbelievable 2004, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. His 2004 season was jaw dropping, as he posted a 2.70 ERA to go with 264 strikeouts. In 2008 he almost reached 200 innings, but his K numbers dropped drastically.

From a high of 10K per nine in 2004, Sheets has slowly declined to his 2008 total of 7.17K per nine. Sheets still has the talent to put up a K per IP, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the decline continues.

Hopefully Sheets can bounce his K rate up to at least 8K per 9, and he’ll be golden. Keep an eye on where Sheets goes this off-season.

#24 Matt Cain – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 192K, 3.57ERA, 1.30WHIP, 8.11 K:9

2008: 8 W, 3.76 ERA, 1.36WHIP, 186K, 7.69 K:9, 2.04 K:BB

Matt Cain started out 2008, terribly — awful, Painful.

He managed to salvage his season with some stellar 10, and 11 K performances. He still sprinkled in some stat lines of 5ER in 6IP, but all and all he ended the season very well.

Cain’s a power pitcher, and he’s built like a brick shit-house — so injuries aren’t a concern.

He pitches in the NL west and the Giants have a great stadium, and a half decent defense. Cain’s fastball tops out around 95, and he’ll throw 3 other pitches at you. All four of his pitches can be used as strike-out pitches.

Cain should keep his K:9 somewhere around 8, and pitch 200 IP easily.

Cain’s a pretty safe bet, with some upside which is hard to come by. Most of the pitchers with room for improvement and upside are risky as fuck. Cain’s going to give you some solid innings, and some great strikeout numbers.

#25 Erik Bedard – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 5-5, 86K, 3.72ERA, 1.31WHIP, 8.7 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 73K, 8 K:9, 1.95 K:BB

What a 2008 Bedard had. An injury plagued, sporadically dominant, sporadically awful season had the Seattle media out for Bedard’s throat.

Bedard was traded for by Seattle idiot-GM, Bill Bavasi, who gave up roughly seven arms and two legs to get him ( Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler)

Bedard is one hell of a pitcher though: The question is whether or not he’ll actually want to pitch for Seattle. The media hates him, everyone in Seattle looks back at his acquisition as stooopid, and he’s injury plagued.

If Bedard wants to put up 220 innings and 200K’s, he will. Otherwise, he’s just going to sit out with every ache and pain and pitch less than 100 innings again.

The Mariners aren’t even sure what they want to do with Bedard going forward. There’s no way they can realistically get anything solid for him in a trade and unless he has a great year, he’s only going to garner Type-B compensation when he hits the Free Agent Market.

So, I think Bedard pitches crazy-awesome this year and leaves to further screw over the Mariners.

Go Canada.

#26 A.J. Burnett – SP – NY Yankees

Bill James Prediction: 14-11, 218K, 3.62ERA, 1.28WHIP, 8.76 K:9

2008: 18 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 231K, 9.35 K:9, 2.69 K:BB

A.J. Burnett is a top 12 pitcher if he stays healthy, which he more than likely do now that he’s a Yankee.

I’m a Blue Jays fan, and like all Jays fans; I think A.J Burnett is a douche-bag. Of course everyone understands that you gotta make the cheddar but A.J. never seemed to want to be in Toronto.

A.J. Burnett does have some of the nastiest stuff in the majors, and his curveball is argueably the best in the league. He’s been plagued with injuries throughout his entire career in Florida and Toronto.

At some point, I’ll move AJ up to his rightful place among the top 20 pitchers but I just have trouble believing A.J. will stay healthy let alone duplicate his stellar numbers from last year.

Hopefully Mr. Burnett crumbles under the pressure of New York, or decides to once again stop trying because he’s made his money.

#27 Javier Vazquez – SP – ATL Braves

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 195K, 3.80ERA, 1.24WHIP, 8.20 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 200K, 8.64 K:9, 3.28 K:BB

The Braves acquired Javier Vazquez late last year, when their talks with the Padres f or Jake Peavy fell through.

Vazquez is probably going to give you some of the best value in the 2009 draft. He’s got all the talent in the world, and has put up terrific ratios, but for some screwy reason always seems to put up 4.00+ ERA numbers.

With Vazquez’s return to the NL, you can assume that his already great 8.5ish K:9 is going to rise a wee lil’ bit. Vazquez striking out a batter an inning is not out of the realm of possibility.

Vazquez at 33 is starting to get up there in age, but over the last 4 years h is velocity hasn’t declined even a smidge. He’s still topping out on his fastball at around 94-95, slider 84mph, and curve about 74mph.

Last year Vazquez put up a stupid-silly .328 BABIP, and you’d have to assume that’d regress to career averages + the mean. Bill James properly predicts a BABIP of about .310.

Vazquez also does not get injured: The man keeps trucking along posting 200IP seasons.

All told, you should expect one hell of a season from Javier Vazquez and should draft him as high as 15th, if you’re risk-adverse.

#28 Edinson Volquez – SP – CIN Reds

Bill James Prediction: 11-11,191K, 4.08ERA, 1.41WHIP, 8.95 K:9

2008: 17 W, 3.24 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 206K, 9.45 K:9, 2.22 K:BB

Volquez has always had a solid repitoire of pitches, and a big boy fastball (94-95MPH). Last year came as a complete surprise however. Volquez had been regularly awful in Texas for the past 2 or 3 years.

He put up impressive 2008 pre-season numbers, and showed improved control — but pre-season numbers are generally deceitful.

Volquez pitches in the Great American Bandbox, and there’s no way in hell he’s going to put up similiar numbers. After the all-star break last year, Volquez put up a 4.60 ERA and gave up 9 HR which was a drastic increase from his first half stats.

He still managed to put up an incredibly respectable 3.24 ERA, but that’s going to balloon. His HR/FB ratio is definitely going to go up from 8, and his numbers will suffer.

#29 Carlos Zambrano – SP – CHI CUBS

Bill James Prediction: 13-9,163K, 3.56ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.48 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.29WHIP, 130K, 6.20 K:9, 1.81 K:BB

There’s no way Zambrano can live with himself after posting 6.20 strike outs per nine. In 2008, Zambrano became a bitch-ass soft-tosser rather than a burly 250lb power pitcher.

He decreased his BB / 9 down 3.43 after two years of 4.80 and 4.34BB per nine. While Zambrano’s increased control is reminiscent of his amazing 2004 & 2005 numbers, his strike out rate took a major hit.

Zambrano is pretty much useless if he’s not putting up at least 7.50K per 9, and I obviously expect a return to that. If Zambrano isn’t putting up at least a 2.00 K to BB ratio, he’s pretty much useless other than his contributions to Wins.

Wrigley is a half decent park to pitch in, until the winds start blowing out.

All and all, Zambrano is capable of putting up 200+ K’s and he’s got the frame to stay healthy. He’ll generally be around league average in WHIP, but he should be up solid win totals as Chicago is once again favoured to win the central.

#30 Jon Lester – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-11,168K, 4.02ERA, 1.40WHIP, 7.13 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.21 ERA, 1.27WHIP, 152K, 6.50 K:9, 2.30 K:BB

If Lester puts up similiar numbers to last year, there’s a couple pitchers that make more sense at this spot (Oswalt, Lilly, Garza).

However, Lester is a young guy who’s bound to improve. While Lester’s K per 9 decreased in 2008, he improved his control quite a bit, lowering his BB:9 from 4.43 to 2.82.

Pitching for Boston affords Lester a good chance at 20 Wins, and he’s Boston’s only reliable lefty. Last year, Lester was probably Boston’s best pitcher and while his dominance doesn’t transfer particularly well into the fantasy world; he’s primed for a break out year.

Lester’s a fairly safe bet, with decent potential. 200 strikeouts is probably a bit of a reach for Lester, but 18 Wins, 1.25WHIP, 3.25 ERA and 180K’s isn’t unreasonable. Lester will help you in all categories without hurting you in any one category.

Photo Of Liriano: Aturkus / Flickr