Miguel Cabrera

Batting Average Assumptions For 2010

When it comes to hitters, the only standard rate-statistic is batting average. Pitchers, well, they get their ERA and WHIP, so I’ll deal with those in an upcoming article. Today, I’ll try to primarily focus on quite possibly the most difficult to quantify of all the statistics in your standard roto-league.

First, we’ll have to suspend disbelief, unless you’re a Twins fan, I suppose. Joe Mauer probably isn’t going to duplicate his .365 Batting Average in 2010, but for the purpose of this example; We’ll just assume he does.

So Let’s take these Five BA Leaders and take a deeper look inside their numbers:

Name	AB	H	AVG
Joe Mauer	523	191	0.365
Ichiro Suzuki	639	225	0.352
Hanley Ramirez	576	197	0.342
Derek Jeter	634	212	0.334
Pablo Sandoval	572	189	0.330
Albert Pujols	568	186	0.327
Todd Helton	544	177	0.325
Miguel Cabrera	611	198	0.324

All great hitters and if you’re drafting any of ‘em, you’re going to get a nice little bump in the Batting Average category.  However, just how valuable is Joe Mauer’s .365 compared to Ichiro’s .352 or Jeter’s .344?

Well, the easiest way for me to quantify their value is to just add ‘em to everyone’s favourite three-outcome player: Adam Dunn.  In 2009, Dunn had 146 Hits in 546 AB — good for a .267 Batting Average.  Ideally, we’d compare them to the replacement level BA player on your roster, but using Dunn provides a tangible example.

Name	AB	H	AVG	+DUNN’s AB	+DUNN’s H	Total BA
Joe Mauer	523	191	0.365	1069	337	0.315
Ichiro Suzuki	639	225	0.352	1185	371	0.313
Hanley Ramirez	576	197	0.342	1122	343	0.306
Derek Jeter	634	212	0.334	1180	358	0.303
Pablo Sandoval	572	189	0.330	1118	335	0.300
Albert Pujols	568	186	0.327	1114	332	0.298
Todd Helton	544	177	0.325	1090	323	0.296
Miguel Cabrera	611	198	0.324	1157	344	0.297

You’ll notice the batting average decrease is disproportional, as expected.   Suffices to say, hitting .365 over 523 ABs is an astounding achievement but it looks a lot better than it actually contributes to the BA category. Ichiro’s extra 100 at-bats almost completely negates Joe Mauer’s original 13pt advantage.

The easiest way to view batting average without putting too much thought into it is to subtract a single point for every 25 (or so) ABs below 600 and to add a point for every 25 or so above that number.  This is just a rough work-around and the effect will decrease as you get closer to your team’s average BA.

Here are some of the players that are overvalued based on limited ABs:

1. Chris Coghlan, .321 AVG  — 504 ABs
2. Jason Bartlett, .320 AVG — 500 AB
3. Erick Aybar, .312 AVG — 504 AB
4. Magglio Ordonez, .310 AVG — 465 AB

…and the undervalued players:

1. Ichiro Suzuki, .352 — 649 AB
2. Robbie Cano, .320 — 637 AB
3. Braun, Jeter, and Miguel Cabrera as well.

Obviously, this doesn’t take into account WHY a player missed his AB, just that he missed them.  In some cases, players miss AB due to their position in the line-up or even the line-up itself.  A catcher will generally take more off-days than a fielder and a lead-off hitter will get more ABs than someone in the 9-hole.  In other cases, players just refuse to take a walk.  These variables stay pretty constant from year to year, though.  Ichiro’s Batting Average is consistently over a larger number of ABs because of the previous reasons.  If a player posted a solid batting average in 2009, but missed the 600 AB mark due to injury; it’s best to just look at his historical ABs, assuming that he hasn’t changed teams.

Your best bet is to focus on good hitters that bat in the top-3 of a good offensive line-up while converting his plate appearances into hits rather than walks.

Also keep in mind that the reverse is true:  Jimmy Rollins’ .250 Batting Average over 672 at-bats hurts a lot more than Russell Martin’s .250 Batting Average over 505 at-bats.

The worst case scenario is to both overvalue Joe Mauer’s .365 batting average while undervaluing the impact of Jimmy Rollins’ .250 Batting Average.

Say you drafted Joe Mauer’s .365 BA and Jimmy Rollins’ .250 Batting Average.  At first glance (a straight average) would give you a .308 Batting Average which makes for a solid draft-strategy.  However, if you factor in the number ABs the averages were achieved over, you’ll end up with a .300 BA — Not nearly as impressive.

A Caveat:

It’s almost impossible to predict a players Batting Average within 10 points, so if you’re feeling a certain player for a break-out year — Go ahead and take ‘em.

Miguel Cabrera

Top First Basemen In Keeper Dynasty League

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30′s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30′s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30′s to low-40′s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.

Miguel Cabrera

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining First Basemen.

As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago.  I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.

Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:

POS	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	Mixed $	AL/NL $	MOV
1	2	Albert Pujols	STL	1B	36	37
Here we have the no-brainer to end all no-brainers. I can’t see him posting another season with such a ridiculous BA though. Still worth every penny of the 35-40 Dollars you spend on him, though.
2	7	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B	31	29
Cabrera or Texiera? Who’s the better deal? Whoever falls further, or costs less. Other than that, it’s a toss up.
3	10	Mark Teixeira	NYY	1B	29	27
Texiera’s RUN and RBI totals should be off the charts but his real value comes from his defense. New York Pitchers will be thanking him.
4	13	Lance Berkman	HOU	1B	28	28	down
There will be a decline from last years numbers, the question is “how much?”. The steals just seem to linger, and it’s getting to the point where you can count on Berkman to snag more than his fair share of bags. I think Howard surpasses him.
5	19	Ryan Howard	PHI	1B	24	26	up
Howard is a beast, and last year’s BA was awful. There’s no way he’s that awful again, and he’ll be a steal. The strike-outs are ugly, but don’t count in fantasy. I’ve talked about punting batting average before, and in a competitive league it might make sense to do that if Howard falls into your lap.
6	22	Prince Fielder	MIL	1B	23	25
Fielder is a curious case: All the talent in the world, but hasn’t quite put it together. He’s clearly got the power, but guys ahead of him have to get on base, which is a problem in Milwaukee. There’s a good amount of boom/bust in Milwaukee this year.
7	32	Justin Morneau	MIN	1B	19	25
Morneau gets overrated due to his MVP and HR Derby win, but he’s a solid run producer. If Mauer is out, Morneau takes a huge hit – but with an improving Minny offense, it’d be wise to expect a slight increase in 2008′s numbers for Morneau.
8	39	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	3B/1B	16	23
In my books, Youk should have won MVP last year. The man was a cog, both offensively and defensively. While the scorekeepers were kind to Kevin, he is a gold-glove callibre first baseman.
9	55	Derrek Lee	CHC	1B	13	21	down
Lee’s the first pick I really disagree with. He’s getting old, has lost the speed that made him special, and is a long ways away from his golden power years. He’s still a beast when healthy, but at this point there’s a lot more value out there.
10	57	Adrian Gonzalez	SD	1B	13	21	up
Adrian Gonzalez is that value. I’d have no problem with someone ranking Gonzalez a full tier ahead of where he sits, in Youkilis territory. San Diego doesn’t have a great ballclub, nor do they have a great park but…but…but…half of his games are on the road.
11	67	Chris Davis	TEX	3B/1B	12	21	down
Davis will start incredibly hot, and I’ll get emails telling me I’m retarded for saying he’s ranked far too high but Davis is too high here. Way too high. His strike-out rate is ridiculous, and while his SLG percentage makes up for a lot of it – he’s still young and this is going to be an up and down year. If he can prove that he’s a productive high-K guy like Ryan Howard, then I’ll buy it. But for now, drop, drop, drop.
12	74	Carlos Pena	TAM	1B	11	19	up
Pena’s a steal, and while I think the Rays over-achieved last year – Pena wasn’t one of them. His 31 HR was a major decline from 2007′s 46 dingers. The batting average will never be there, but he’ll top the .247 he put up last year. Pena’s entire career has been a roller-coaster ride.
13	80	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	10	19	up
As a Canadian, I love me some Joey Votto. Votto has been having a great camp, and had an amazing stint, however brief, at the WBC. Originally down on Votto, I think he outperforms Chris Davis by a hair.
14	85	Garrett Atkins	COL	3B/1B	9	18
I’m not a huge Garrett Atkins fan, but he puts up numbers. If you’re drafting Atkins, you’re probably taking him as your third baseman, or corner infielder. He’ll put up very solid power numbers, to go along with a very solid .300 BA. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atkins get closer to 30HR than his projected low-20′s.
15	119	Conor Jackson	ARI	1B/OF	7	17
Speaking of a power-outage at first base, here’s Conor Jackson. He’s an unconventional first baseman, in that he’ll help you in the R & AVG category rather than RBI and HR. Right now he’s set to be playing left-field, with Chad Tracy manning first but if Byrnes returns to form – Jackson will return to first.
16	138	Adam LaRoche	PIT	1B	6	16
…and now the polar opposite of Conor Jackson, Adam LaRoche. LaRoche is a notorious slow-starter, but I’m expecting bigger things this year. If he comes into camp ready to play, he’ll top 30 HR easily. He’s a pure power hitter and he’s improved his average from awful to respectable.
17	140	Carlos Delgado	NYM	1B	5	15
Carlos Delgado is old and boring, but he’ll produce. I’m not sure how many games he’ll get in, but planning for injury always comes back to bite you in the ass. If the robots say Carlos is going to hit 30HR and drive in 100 runs, who am I to argue. The batting average is always the first to go though, and maybe you should expect something in the .260-.265 range.
18	151	Pablo Sandoval	SF	1B	5	14	down
Sandoval hammered the ball last year, and like Atkins, you’ll probably be playing Pablo as your third baseman. However, he’s not a terrible option at first. His SLG percentage in limited action last year was almost .500. His BABIP was a smidgen high, so expect regression but Pablo can ball. His miniscule walk rate is concerning however. I’m not quite as high on Sandoval as some others.
19	154	James Loney	LAD	1B	4	14	up
Loney is Conor Jackson v2.0. When you look at Loney, you figure he’s gotta develop power at some point, but it’s proving to be quite the chore for James. My projection for last year was 20HR and a .300 AVG, and it’ll be the same thing this year.
20	162	Paul Konerko	CHW	1B	4	15	down
Even if Paul Konerko exceeds expectations, I’d still rather have anyone else on this list. There is reason to believe though, but I can’t bring myself to say it aloud so: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/konerkos-not-dead-yet
21	189	Jorge Cantu	FLA	3B/1B	2	13
If nothing else, Florida will be a blast to watch. The line-up is filled with boom or bust free swingers, and Cantu definitely fits that mold. Cantu had a career year last year, and it’s unlikely he’ll repeat but…if Gaby Sanchez or Dallas McPherson fall flat on their face, Cantu will play the full sched. 29 HR is probably out of the question, but anywhere between 20 and 25 seems completely reasonable. The RBI and R numbers should be solid.
22	190	Carlos Guillen	DET	3B/1B	2	13
Another guy you’re not going to play at first, but his versatility escalates his value. Guillen’s been aging well enough, and he’ll always hit for a solid average and score runs. A healthy Carlos Guillen is a steal even if he only hits 15 HR. It’s tough to find 180 RBI + R at this point, especially when you throw in a .290+ AVG
23	261	Casey Kotchman	ATL	1B	$-	11	up
I like the Casey Kotchman, and I like him a lot. He should flourish with a full-time gig in Atlanta. Atlanta’s currently rostering a pretty boring outfield, but the kids infront of Kotchman should get on base. He wont put up crazy power numbers, but he’ll hit ‘em where they aint. Expect solid R & RBI totals. Kotchman is probably the most likely of the bunch to add 10-15 HR to his totals, and leave your opponents scratching their heads.
24	269	Mike Jacobs	KC	1B	$-	10	down
Jacobs is a bit of a downer with the talent KC has waiting in the wings for the first base job. With that said, if you’re punting batting average – Jacobs is the man. If you can tolerate a sub-.250 BA, Jacobs is the man. If you’re in a HR only league, Jacobs is the man. There’s no reason why Jacobs shouldn’t be able to eclipse the 30-HR mark.
25	274	Billy Butler	KC	1B/DH	$-	10
Big-Fat-Billy-Butler did not have a good start to the 2008 campaign. The man is still a professional hitter, and I think the Royals get on base this year. He’ll have plenty-o-chances to knock ‘em in, and score some himself. Good call here, ESPN.
26	282	Todd Helton	COL	1B	$-	9	down
This is where we have to ask ourselves the question of whether or not Todd Helton lost “it”. Everything points to Helton still being a competant .300 hitter, that just had major injury issues in 2008. Helton’s back is shot, and 20 HR looks like his ceiling. Other stats are nice though, it’s painful to take Helton but at some point, you must.
27	286	Lyle Overbay	TOR	1B	$-	9	down
As someone who watched Lyle Overbay on a daily basis, I cannot give a fair opinion on him. He’s awful, though – just incase you were curious.
28	291	Hank Blalock	TEX	3B/1B	$-	9	down
Blalock’s interesting as a third baseman, and boring as a first baseman. Davis appears to have the first base job on lock-down, and Michael Young has the third-base gig. Elvis Andrus and Omar Vizquel are by no means “sure-things” but it looks like Blalock will be manning the DH spot. From the looks of it, he’ll have to share it with David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton or Andruw Jones.
29	292	Casey Blake	LAD	3B/1B	$-	9
Blake’s a solid contributor in a great line-up. He does everything well, but I have him below the next two guys.
30	293	Nick Swisher	NYY	1B/OF	$-	9	up
Swisher has to find a spot to play, but once he does he’ll be unstoppable. Swisher is a high OBP guy, who strikes out a good amount. He was also one of the unluckiest gentlemen in the majors last year. Expect a better batting average, more runs scored, more runs knocked in – Sleeper Supreme.
31	296	Jason Giambi	OAK	1B/DH	$-	9	up
Giambi returns to Oakland, and Oaklands put together a fairly solid team. They may just be the best team in the West. It’ll largely depend on the maturation of their prospect-laden starting staff. Anyways, Giambi should have a full-time gig at First/DH and has show he still has stuff left in the tank. Go ahead and draft him.
32	303	Ryan Garko	CLE	1B	$-	8	up
I’m back on the fence about Garko after feeling like he’d be a sleeper-steal this year. The Indians have been playing him out in left field, and LaPorta is looking solid. Even banking on the fact that Pronk can’t stay healthy, Garko’s job is still in jeopardy with V-Mart and LaPorta breathing down his neck.
33	329	Gaby Sanchez	FLA	1B	$-	7	up
Gaby Sanchez is a sexy rookie, and I’m surprised that ESPN has him all the way down here. Mike Jacobs proved that you can score a lot of runs, and knock in even more in that Florida line-up. If Sanchez is able maintain a job, he’ll be a steal. Especially at 329th overall.
34	336	Chad Tracy	ARI	1B	$-	7	down
Not a fan of Tracy, as I tend to think Eric Byrnes’ giganto contract will force him into a starting gig.
35	385	Chris Duncan	STL	1B/OF	$-	5
Duncan is interesting as we approach 400th overall. Skip Schumaker has been making a smooth enough transition to second base, leaving an outfield spot up for grabs. Smart money was on Colby Rasmus, but if he continues to struggle the Cardinals’ outfield may just be Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick.
36	423	Travis Ishikawa	SF	1B	$-	4
The Giants are begging Ishikawa for production, and the “kid” has impressed so far. I like him slightly less than Sanchez in a terrible Giants offense.
37	426	Nick Johnson	WAS	1B	$-	4
Johnson isn’t going to stay healthy, and most leagues don’t count OBP. In addition to this, the Nats’ first base/outfield situation is a mess. Johnson could be a steal but there’s a lot of risk here.
38	427	Ronnie Belliard	WAS	2B/3B/1B	$-	4
Belliard quietly put up a solid season last year, but I doubt he’ll find a place to play this year. Monitor him if someone goes down.
39	428	Cody Ransom	NYY	1B	$-	6	hrm
Too much depth in New York, but I guess someone has to play third base while A-Roid recovers.
40	434	Kevin Millar	TOR	1B	$-	5
The Jays could have done worse, and why Millar would be here and Overbay all the way up there boggles my mind.
41	479	Jeff Baker	COL	2B/1B	$-	2
He might snag AB once Helton goes down but for now it looks like the infield is full.
42	490	Wilson Betemit	CHW	3B/1B	$-	2
A solid safety net as Josh Fields is as untested as they come.
43	520	Daric Barton	OAK	1B	$-	2	up!
I’m not sure how ESPN got so down on this once-prized-prospect. Barton should produce well above the 2 dollar range.
44	530	Willy Aybar	TAM	3B/1B/DH	$-	1
Playing time is going to be the problem.
45	666	Chris Shelton	SEA	1B	$-	1
Seattle is bad, real bad.
46	729	Rich Aurilia	FA	1B	$-	$-
Seriously?
47	747	Michael Aubrey	CLE	1B	$-	$-
Interesting, but I’m not buying it this year.
48	782	Doug Mientkiewicz	LAD	1B	$-	$-
No Way In Hell.
49	785	John Bowker	SF	1B	$-	$-
This is why the Giants want Travis Ishikawa to succeed.
50	786	Aaron Boone	HOU	1B	$-	$-
Could provide some solid numbers if he finds a place to play.

What’s Missing?

Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year.  If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.

Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy.  Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.

The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel.  Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.

Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam.  Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year.  The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.