Mat Gamel

If You Wanna Win, It’s Time To Pay Attention.

It’s that time of the year again, the annual dumping of contracts, better known as the dog days of August.  In a perfect world, players would sign contracts that compensate them based on their production and performance.

Unfortunately, mediocre teams sign mediocre players for not-so-mediocre sums of money to show their fans that they’re committed to winning.  Eventually these contracts become blockades that prevent them from competing for anything other than the first overall selection in the June Draft.

Thankfully, there’s a solution in most cases.  Uncompetitive teams place gaudy contracts on waivers and hope that another team’s desperate enough to make a claim, and if they’re lucky, a trade. Occasionally it makes sense to eat a large contract if it drastically increases your chances of a playoff birth.

Older proven players along with the youngsters that fill the void offer the best value you’ll get in a fantasy baseball league now that the fantasy baseball trade deadline has also come and gone.

Alex Rios is now a member of the White Sox, which opens the door for the beloved Travis Snider.  Snider’s still going to have his issues with strikeouts, but he absolutely mashed in AAA-Las Vegas (.337 AVG / .431 OBP / .633 SLG).  Snider led off his second ‘09 major league stint with an opposite field shot against Josh Beckett, but has also struck-out three times in two games.  If you’re in need of power, Snider should fulfill that need with every day ABs as promised by Jays’ manager, Cito Gaston:

Manager Cito Gaston said the team’s top prospect will play pretty much every day from here on out as they prepare him for 2010, and Snider feels he’s much more ready to handle the ups and downs of life in the majors than before. Canoe

Aubrey Huff is now a Detroit Tiger, although his role is still unclear.  Huff’s versatility should prove useful and he should settle into the DH-spot nicely.  How the Orioles address this situation will prove to be much more interesting.  Immediately, it seems as though Reimold will occupy the DH spot on a full time basis with super-utility man, Ty Wigginton, getting first-base at-bats.  Wigginton currently has first, third and outfield eligibility in all leagues; However in many leagues he’s amassed enough games at second and shortstop to qualify at MI as well.   Wigginton is always useful if he’s given a shot and in deeper leagues, the situation’s well worth monitoring.  The Orioles also recalled former top-prospect, Michael Aubrey. Aubrey doesn’t have the bat, but really reminds me of a Lyle Overbay -type player.  Obviously Lyle just proved that anyone can go on a tear and everyone’s worth monitoring.  Even though Felix Pie has continued to be a huge dissappointment, I’m still keeping my eyes peeled.

The Indians placed Trevor Crowe on the 15-Day DL and V-Mart’s still a Red Sock — Really, Pinch yourself.  It’s not a dream, he is a Beantowner — which opened up a spot in the line-up for Matt LaPorta.  Much like Travis Snider, LaPorta has absolutely destroyed AAA pitching.  Unlike Snider, LaPorta has focused on exactly what needed improvement.  LaPorta’s seen his K-Rate decline while raising his BB%, which is good for a promising 0.75BB/K ratio. With Jamey Carroll as his only competition for the left-field gig, LaPorta should get more than his fair share of playing time.  If you’re looking for a spark, I’d be hedging my bets towards LaPorta rather than Snider.

In Texas, the catcher’s spot just got that much more confusing.  Salty’s on the DL and while Taylor Teagarden’s been told that the job is his, the recent acquisition of Pudge should interest deep-leaguers.  A return to Arlington shouldn’t hurt and Rodriguez has always been one to raise his level of play for a late-season push, but we’re still talking very-deep leagues only.  The player of interest here, is Julio Borbon who has 8 SB and 13 Hits in 9 games.  Borbon definitely has the speed, but his base running skills still need refinement.  This is a situation you’ll definitely want to monitor as Nelson Cruz is slated to come of the DL today or tomorrow.  If Borbon can find a way to stick with the big club or manage a September call-up, he’ll be very useful in short stints.

St. Louis has taken a chance on John Smoltz.  Old Grey Beard Smoltz has sparked more discussion than his NFL Counterpart, Brett Favre (okay, maybe not that much).  In Boston, Smoltz was all over the place with an ERA over eight.  He was however, still striking people out while posting solid peripherals. This has definitely become a must-watch situation, with Smoltz recently suggesting he’d be better suited to start rather than set up Ryan Franklin.   A return to the National League could prove the cure to Smoltz’s ailment and where else could you find a potential late-season ace?  If you’re riding high in your head-to-head league, you’ve probably got 3 weeks before your first playoff game which would allow Smoltz to show his worth or give you time to cut-bait.

Milwaukee has cut ties with Bill Hall, trading him to Seattle to replace the nutty Adrian Beltre.  Hall’s not particularly interesting, McGehee’s still doing what he does, and the Mat Gamel-era isn’t all that far away.  Gamel should be called up as rosters expand and barring utter-insanity, should see plenty of games at 3B to close out the season.  Just how hard is it to get rid of one of these high-paid under-producing veterans?  Milwaukee will eat the entirety of Hall’s 2009 contract, along with 7.5 of the 8.4 Million owed to Hall in 2010!

With Willy Tavares hitting the DL, the Cincinnati Reds recalled outfielder Drew Stubbs who promptly hit a walk-off, game-winning, extra-innings home run.  Unfortunately, Stubbs probably won’t produce as advertised.  Stubbs’ 46 SBs in AAA are tantalizing, until you realize he’ll have issues getting on base.  It shouldn’t surprise you to see Stubbs strike-out more than 1/3rd of the time and how well his walk-rate will translate is still up in the air.  There’s definitely power-potential in Stubbs’ 6′4″ frame, but probably not in 2009.

There are a couple interesting moves that don’t particularly have fantasy implications.  Firstly, Vicente Padilla is now a Dodger with all of their recent pitching injuries.  In extremely deep leagues, there’s a shot that Padilla could contribute in wins and maybe ERA.  The strike-outs are long gone, but I’m sure there’s a league somewhere interested in him.

Gaby Sanchez was called up and VandenHurk optioned, but more importantly it appears as though Anibal Sanchez may be healthy.  With the Marlins back in the playoff race, there’s a shot that Sanchez could be quite useful down the stretch.  If Sanchez is back to throwing 95mph (as advertised), there’s definitely intrigue.

After waivers comes the expansion of rosters in September.  A lot of two or three category youngsters will get the call.  These players will definitely contribute in small stints based on match-ups.

Mat Gamel

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Third Basemen

No Pedro Alvarez, Josh Vitters or Mike Moustakas in the Yahoo or ESPN Player Pool, looks like you’ll have to wait another year. There are plenty of solid keeper options at third base though, especially of the young and unproven variety.

Whether or not they’ll stick at third base, is a whole different ballgame however.  Currently Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Russell Martin, Mark DeRosa, Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez, Hank Blalock, Chase Headley and Jed Lowrie have third base eligibility in Yahoo Leagues, but they haven’t been included because I either don’t think they’ll stick or they’ll provide greater vlaue elsewhere.

Banking on Miguel Cabrera logging 15 Games at 3rd for the next 10 years is a bit iffy, and if you’re drafting Russell Martin — You’re playing him at catcher. A-Rod’s probably got a couple years at DH in him as well, which would warrant him a higher overall than positional rank.  He scoots ahead of Longoria in the overall ranks.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. David Wright – NY Mets – 26 - I thought he had another year to wait, but with Rodriguez’s injury, Wright’s the best third base option, and should continue stealing 15+ bases for the next 4 years.

2. Evan Longoria – TB Rays – 23 - Longoria’s a talent, but I’d expect somewhat of a sophomore slump this year. Blasphemy, I know. In the long run, he should provide you with 10 years of top-3 third basemen play.  A few more SB would be nice.

3. Alex Rodriguez – NY Yankees – 33 - Loses a few months to injury, but he’ll play well into his late 30’s. I’ll take 4 years of first-round talent over 8 years of 5th round talent, any day.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – WAS Nationals – 24 - It’s a tough choice between Zimmerman and Gordon. Gordon ends up being the better player, but Washington surrounds Zimmerman with more talent.

5. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 - Re-upped with Boston, and should produce at a high level for at least 5 more years.  There’s the possibility that Youkilis gets moved back to third to make room for Lars Anderson.

6. Alex Gordon – KC Royals – 25 - If Gordon wants to cash in on all that talent and become a superstar, 2009’s the year.  KC’s putting together a squad that can mash, and they’ll at least be fun to watch.

7. Edwin Encarnacion – CIN Reds – 26 – 2009 is the year Encarnacionn puts it together. I dont think he has the talent of a Zimmerman or Gordon, but the ballpark’s definitely in his favour.  I’d have no problem ranking Edwin above both Zimmerman and Gordon.

8. Aramis Ramirez – CHI Cubs – 30 - Same boat as Youkilis.

9. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 - I haven’t the slightest clue where Sandoval plays out his career, but his versatility can’t hurt.  There’s a good amount of risk associated with Sandoval, and I think you’ll probably have to overpay to get him in any keeper league.

10. Mark Reynolds – ARI Diamondbacks – 25 - Lots of power, not much average.  You’re getting what you pay for.

11. Chipper Jones – ATL Braves – 36 - Where to put Chipper? He can’t stay healthy, and he’s getting old.  He did post his best batting average ever as a 35 year old.  You’ve probably got two years of top-5 third basemen, and 1 year old top-10.  Adjust your rankings based on the depth of your league.

12. Garrett Atkins – COL Rockies – 29 - If Atkins stays in Colorado, he’s probably two spots higher.  Unfortunately, I can’t see him sticking around the mile-high city. Best case scenario: Atkins plays the year out at 3rd base, and eventually gets moved to first base — but he gets to stay in Colorado.  Worst Case: Atkins gets traded to a not-so-hitter-friendly park.

13. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - His next five years could be 30HR, 25HR, 8HR, 17HR, 32HR.  It’s really two bad that he was such a terrible second basemen.  The Marlins are stacked with young talent, so he should continue to put up R & RBI numbers.  There’s also the chance that Florida cleans house again.

14. Adrian Beltre – SEA Mariners – 29 - I can’t believe he’s only 29. He’s been underachieving for almost 10 years now!  Taking a peek at Beltre’s numbers is quite enjoyable. In a purely baseball sense, a sense that takes into account his stellar defense, the Mariners really didn’t waste that massive wad of cash-money signing Beltre.  Now, if only someone could get on base for him.

15. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Who knows what he develops into. He’s ceilings probably 7th or 8th, and his basement is about Joe Crede.

16. Aubrey Huff – BAL Orioles – 32 – Eligibility is going to be a problem going forth.

17. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 – Same boat as Stewart.  Wood’s massive power potential at the shortstop position is worth the risk, but at the third base position 30 HR isn’t all that uncommon.

18. Mat Gamel – MIL Brewers – 23 – His defense is getting better, and he’s almost a below average third baseman.  I don’t know if he’ll stick at third, but he’s got a whoooole lotta potential.

19. Josh Fields – CHI White Sox – 26 – This could be Gamel four years from now.  Fields has got a boatload of potential, and I’d be taking a chance on him.  All of the reports out of Spring Training are encouraging.

20. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 – I probably screwed up this Figgins ranking, but it’s impossible to judge atypical performers in keeper leagues.  In a keeper league, you can’t really gameplan around Figgins by drafting a power-hitting MI to offset Figgins’ lack of power from a typical HR-hitting position. You just want to put together the best team without getting too cute.  With Figgins’ injury history, and almost all of his value coming from speed — I’d  avoid him as my third baseman.

21. Brett Wallace – STL Cardinals – 22 – Ooooh, Ahhhh! Baseball America has him only six spots lower than the mucho-hyped-upped-o, Mat Gamel.  Wallace comes in at the 40th best prospect, and a whole lotta power potential.  Glaus is getting old, and who knows how long Freese can hold Wallace off.  Well worth the risk at this point.

22. Kevin Kouzmanoff – SD Padres – 27 - I have an unhealthy hatred for San Diego third basemen.  I think it’s because I sat on Sean Burroughs for so long. Anyways, here’s a tidbit about Burroughs: After winning the league little world series, a team coached by his father and 1974 AL MVP, Jeff Burroughs; Sean was invited onto David Letterman.  When asked what his dream job was, instead of coming up with the obvious answer of:  “follow in my dad’s footsteps and become a ball player,” Burroughs told Letterman he wanted to be a gynecologist. Kids say the darndest things.  Anyways, I do not want the Kouz on my team.

23. Troy Glaus – STL Cardinals – 32 - Still has a few good years left in him, 2009 isn’t one of those years. He’s got Wallace breathing down his neck, too.

24. Carlos Guillen – DET Tigers – 33 – Detroit will find a spot for Guillen to play, and Guillen should produce for a couple more years.

25. Andy LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 25 - Now that he’s with his brother, and hopefully relaxed — LaRoche is probably a very profitable risk to take heading into 2009.

26. Joe Crede – MIN Twins – 30 – Signed a one-year deal with the Twins.

27. Dayan Viciedo – CHI White Sox – 20 – Cuba, Cuba.  Should be solid, if/when Josh Fields fails.  Even if Fields succeeds, Viciedo will probably snag a spot in the outfield.  At the very least, keep an eye on him.

28. Melvin Mora – BAL Orioles – 37 – I couldn’t believe that Mora was 37 Years old.  Maybe 1 or 2 seasons of 90+ RBI left in ‘em.

29. Bill Hall – MIL Brewers – 29 - Bill Hall should be in his prime, he’s not.  He’s having trouble making contact, let alone smash-killing.  With Gamel breathing down his neck, maybe this year’s the year.

30. Matt Tuiasosopo – SEA Mariners – Solid youngster, you might have to wait a couple years.  I dont see him being anything special though.

31. Mike Lowell – BOS Red Sox – 35

32. Wilson Betemit – CHI White Sox – 27

33. Ty Wigginton – BAL Orioles – 31

34. Jose Bautista – TOR Jays – 28

35. Jeff Keppinger – HOU Astros – 28

36. Brian Buscher – MIN Twins – 27

37. Conor Gillaspie – SF Giants – 21 – I think Gillaspie flops.  Maybe you want to move him above Tuiasosopo, but I dont.

38. Russell Branyan – SEA Mariners – 33

38. Jack Hannahan – OAK Athletics – 29

39. Eric Chavez – OAK Athletics – 31

40. Casey Blake – LA Dodgers – 35

41. Scott Rolen – TOR Blue Jays – 33

Unfortunately, I’m sick as a dog, and the regular season is only a few days ago — So if these seemed rushed, they are.

Mat Gamel

2009 Spring Training: Useful? + Day 1 Recap.

It’s the end of February and Grapefruit and Cactus League action has begun.  Following these games and boxsores is incredibly important, and you’ll gain unlimited insight by watching them.

Actually, not really — not really at all. There are a few folk that believe a massive increase in OPS percentage during Spring Training means success:

Nevertheless, that past research did find one exception. A hitter that has a tremendous Spring Training does correlate to a better than normal season. In precise statistical terms, a hitter with a positive difference between their Spring Training slugging percentage and their lifetime slugging percentage of .200 or more alerts us to a step forward in the coming season.

(full article here: http://www.actasports.com/sow.php?id=39)

Generally Spring Training isn’t much use at all, short of alerting us to injuries.  There’s always a bunch of stories that come out of Spring Training about players ready to “hit more home-runs” or “steal more bases”. Players enjoy mentioning how much muscle-weight they’ve put on, or body-fat they’ve dropped.

Spring Training can help you judge defense though. While defense isn’t a fantasy baseball category, it is a real baseball category; which makes it important.

Most of the young prospects that get invites to camp have Major League ready bats, but seriously lack in the defensive category.  Earlier, I wrote about Mat Gamel and how much fun he’ll have at the hot-corner and this is a perfect example.  Gamel will get some reps at third, and how he fares will largely dictate his immediate future.

Hitting and pitching statistics are generally skewed by the level of preparation, and level of competition but fielding is fielding.  A career minor leaguer can still hit a ground ball to third just as well as Albert Pujols can.  Gamel’s footwork needs some work, a lot of work, and while he may only have a few opportunities a game; it’s worth paying attention to.

With that said, a brief Recap of the first day of 2009 Spring Training Thus Far:

1. Andruw Jones struck out twice in two AB, sound familiar? 100% K-Rate, So Far So Good.
2. The Mark Teahan is a great second baseman experiment is going well: 2 Errors (1 fielding, and one throwing, yipee)
3. Homer Bailey is awesome again, 1IP / 2K
4. Chris Dickerson jumped Jerry Hairston Jr. for the top of the LF Depth Chart. Hairston played Shortstop today — I figure he’ll find himself AB this year, and could be a sleeper. Hopefully Dickerson takes the starting LF gig though.
5. Noted Back-Pimpler, Jordan Schaffer, played the whole game. I still like him at some point this year — God, The Braves are boring.
6. In our first 10 Inning Tie of the year, Colby Rasmus still turns me on and the Skip Schumaker second base experiment appears to be going better than Teahan’s.
7. The Jays got pasted, and I’m not sure whether or not I’m enthused or suicidal seeing Adam Loewen in the box-score as a RF.  Kevin Millar and Justin Lane also make appearances.
8. Noted Awesome, Fernando Martinez, is back in action after a strained elbow.  Danny Murphy played the field, and it looks like that’s where he’ll stick — You’re stuck with Castillo as you’re 2-bagger.
9. The Pirates’ prospect factory is looking solid, hopefully they can keep Alvarez, McCutchen, Tabata, and Pearce.  If Andy LaRoche ever grew a new back, that didn’t spasm, and learned to hit Big-League pitching — they could keep him too. The Phillies will never repeat after this devastating loss to the Bucos.
10. The Nats played without Dunn, Dukes or Johnson. Story out of Nats’ camp reports Dukes impregnated a female fan, Dunn tried to hit her and missed, and Johnson who rushed to her aid, hurt his back in the process.  Milledge is apparently putting the FUN back into Fundamentals. Noted Canadian, Pete Orr, went 1/2.
11. Jerry Owens took a walk. Chicago’s only walk. A WALK! Brandon Wood did not cease to exist.
12. The Rangers are going to be fun to watch.
13. Brad Ausmus stole a base! for the Dodgers. Hopefully I can find a clip. Jeff Samardzja should have played football.
14. The Oakland Athletics outfield is still deep and messy….there’s a joke here.
15. Giants’ Schierholtz went deep, and they’re rostering someone named BOCOCK. I dig. Velez stole a base, and the Indians let Martinez play Catcher.
16. Arizona Fall League stand-out,  Eric Young Jr., played second base for the Rockies.  This is interesting as his path in Center-field is blocked by Fowler and Carlos Gonzalez.  Young had earlier switched from second to center, despite this.  Now, if he can get a handle on second — he may just be a sleeper.  You can check out his Arizona Fall League blog post here.
17. The Diamondbacks are still the Diamondbacks, and I still like Felipe Lopez.
18. It’s the bottom of the 8th in the Twins vs. Red Sox Spring Training Game.  MLB has someone out there doing a live blog, with all sorts of pretty photos and such.

And we’re done day one. I’m sure some Injury News will come out sooner or later.

Mat Gamel

The Hype Machine Eats Mat Gamel – 3B – Brew Crew

Mat Gamel, The Heir Apparent? The Next Ryan Braun?

As a 23 year old, Gamel’s not quite to the point where he’s too old for Double-A but he’s getting close. For all you perverts out there, 23 in double-A is like 23 in women’s tennis: they just aren’t as sexy anymore.

In 2008, Gamel managed to grab a cup of coffee in both triple-A (5 Games) and the Show (2 Games). The sample size is obviously far too small for any reasonable analysis, however striking out 10 times in 21 AB in AAA leads me to believe he is indeed a human, and may have been pressing.

How Did Gamel Fair in AA? (Ryan Braun Mashed in Double-A and turned into an all-star. Sound Logic, Right?)

The internet’s ablaze with comparisons between Ryan Braun and Mat Gamel, all because they mashed AA pitching while proving that the mantra “No Glove, No Love” applies to players not just named, Roberto Alomar.

Thanks to The Baseball Cube, we can compare their Minor League statistics:

Player Name	Stat Type	Bavg	Obp	Slg	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HR	2B	R	RBI	SB
Ryan Braun	MLB	.301	.350	.588	938	264	1062	183	320	65	13	71	203	29	9	71	241	0.27	0.25	0.69	0.77	0.11
Mat Gamel	MLB	.500	.500	1.000	1500	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ryan Braun	Minor	.313	.375	.572	947	199	767	131	240	61	6	42	144	34	12	69	151	0.21	0.31	0.66	0.72	0.17
Mat Gamel	Minor	.305	.375	.489	864	447	1710	278	522	115	22	52	285	36	20	184	358	0.12	0.26	0.62	0.64	0.08

Statistics obviously, courtesy of the baseball cube.

Gamel’s played more games in this chart, as I haven’t included Ryan Braun’s college career. With that said, it’s pretty clear to see that Ryan Braun put up superior power and speed numbers than Mat Gamel.   With that said however, lets take a look at the Double-A seasons each had as a 22-year old:

Braun’s Line: .303 AVG/.367 OBP/.589 SLG / .956 OPS which translated into 15 HR in 59 Games.  You also must remember Braun spent 59 Games in High-A ball prior to being called up to Double-A in 2006.

Gamel’s Line: .329 AVG / .395 OBP / .537 SLG / .932 OPS which translated into 19HR in 127 G.

It’s fairly clear that Mat Gamel is lagging behind Ryan Braun in the power department, but not that far. It would be wise to assume, that like Braun, Gamel would start 2009 out in Triple-A.

So Gamel’s Got The Stick, What’s Stopping Him From Being TEH AWESOME?!

Right now, it appears as though Hall will break camp with the starting third base gig.  The Brewers have a back-up plan in Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell, both of which are proven commodities. So how badly will Bill Hall have to shit the bed, and how great will Gamel have to be?

When Ryan Braun got called up, he was slugging at a .700 clip in AAA.  If Gamel does this, he’ll get called up regardless of whether or not Hall finds his stroke.  Realistically, Gamel won’t do this because he is not one of the chosen people. If Gamel can maintain his current production against Triple-A pitching, he should be fine. It’s generally said that Double-A, and your adjustment to Double-A, is the make or break portion of your MiLB career.

It would serve Mat Gamel well to cut down on his near 21% K rate, but a 10% BB rate helps the medicine go down a bit easier. When Gamel’s doubles power translate into big league home run power, he’ll be dangerous.

Bill James’ robot has Gamel coming in at 150 Games in the 2009 season, which seems a bit ridiculous. Here’s the full-line:

150 Games, 539 AB, 35Doubles, 18 HR, 87 R, 89RBI, .302 AVG, 8 SB. 23.6 K%, 8.8 BB% and an OBP of .364.

Bill James is a brighter man than I, but these numbers seem a bit ridiculous; especially when you consider his projection model has Bill Hall down for 418 AB.

The Defense, It’s Always the Defense.

Gamel’s defense is awful, and while he’s improving, it’s a stretch to say that he’ll develop into even a below average third baseman.

Every Article written on Gamel explains why his defense is awful:

Fangraphs: It’s Almost Gamel Time

Diamond Cutter: Gamel’s Scouting Report

Sportsbubbler: Gamel #3 Brewers Prospect

Minorleagueball: Gamel, Again.

Hardballtimes: Yah, It’s Bad

Conclusion:

If Gamel gets called up, he’ll play.  The Brewers won’t call him up simply to sit on the bench while he could be refining his glove-work in Triple-A.

The problem is whether or not Gamel will get the call.  At this point, there’s no way he could step into the starting third base role without massive improvements over the winter and first month or two of the MiLB season.

If someone goes down in the outfield, definitely pounce.

If you’re sitting around watching a Brewers game and Ryan Braun starts taking grounders at third again, definitely pounce.

I’m just not sure that Gamel gets reps at third even if Hall plays terribly.

I don’t think I’d draft Gamel, but I’d definitely be the first guy on a WW claim for him because as I said, if he gets the call — he’ll play.

Mat Gamel

Bill Hall’s Toe Tag: How Did This Get So Long? Why Didn’t I Mention Mat Gamel?

The Steroid Era has skewed the common perception of the good ol’ ball-player forever. Anyone associated with baseball, whether it be a writer or a fan, is stuck in limbo. Stuck, waiting for a definitive answer that will never come.

A “Career Year” during the steroid era is now almost impossible to attribute to the values our society preaches: hard work, patience and perseverance. It may be laziness on behalf of the baseball fan to just assume that a player is guilty of taking performance enhancing drugs (PEDs); but the easiest answer is most often the correct answer.

Bill Hall - jodieandlarry.flickr

With that said, onto The Mess That Is Bill Hall’s Career:

RECENT INJURIES:

Considering Hall is fighting for his job tooth and nail, he probably didn’t want to start out 2009 with a torn right calf on the first day of camp. The initial reports out of Brewers’ camp figured upon a 4-6 week recovery period, which would probably keep Hall out of the opening day line-up and start him down in Triple-A for some seasoning. Recent reports are hinting that while the time-table remains the same, Hall is feeling quite optimistic about an early return and should resume hitting shortly.

POWER SURGE:

In 2006, Bill Hall hit 35 HR, Scored 101 Runs, Drove in 85 batters, stole 8 bases, and hit .270.  The numbers surrounding such a power surge, should be examined — So, we will.

It’s pretty clear that Hall’s power-surge had it’s gestation period during the 2005 season as he managed to slug at a .495 clip. With this number in mind, it’s not that radical to assume that he would follow it up with a career year of 35HR while slugging .553.  However, aside from these two years, there is nothing else in Bill Hall’s professional career that shows his ceiling  is anything more than slugging at a .450 mark.

So I’m quick to judge: Steroids, is the answer.

In 2007, Bill Hall signed a delicious 4-Year/24M dollar contract. The old way of thinking dictates that Hall, now financially sound for life, simply lost the desire to play baseball. Yet the steroid question looms: Did Bill Hall just make himself 24 Million Dollars by sticking a needle in his ass for a year and a half?

We’re not Baseball-Philosophers though, we only care about statistics.  So the next logical set of questions are:

1. If Bill Hall lost the desire to improve, has his pride suffered enough to warrant a comeback of sorts? or…
2. If Bill Hall used PEDs to improve his performance, has his pride or pocketbook suffered enough to warrant a return to his mischievous ways?

We’d be fooling ourselves if we believed that there weren’t undetectable PEDs available to any player that wanted them.  Even after A-Rod’s recent omission of  ” I attained steroids from a cousin in the Dominican, and I didn’t know what it was…” — I refuse to believe that ALL baseball players are idiots.  If someone wants to inject themselves with an undetectable steroid, they’ll find a way to make it happen.

What Does The Future Hold for Bill Hall?

Hall underwent LASIK surgery to improve his vision this off-season; which has the benefit of removing annoying-ass contacts from the equation, in addition to helping you see better — duh.  In sports like baseball, where a batter is turning his head quickly to adjust to the pitch or a fly-ball, LASIK has been shown to help.  There’s an article on Denard Span and his LASIK surgery here.

Whether or not this can help Bill Hall’s consistently ridiculous 25-30% K is debatable.  Even during Hall’s banner year of 2006, he struck out a third of the time while walking less than 10 percent of the time. The difference was power. Hall had never posted a SLG percentage of .550, and he certainly hadn’t come close to his isolated power statistic (ISO) of .283.

The power came from a drastic change in plate approach. Hall has maintained a relatively stable line-drive rate throughout his career, posting a high of 24% in 2005 and a low of 19.1% in his 2006 season. The change comes from the amount of fly-balls and ground balls Hall hit. More specifically, the ratio of Ground balls to Fly balls (GB/FB).  Prior to 2006, Bill Hall hit 1.15 (2004) to 1.20 (2005) ground balls for every fly ball.  In 2006, Hall almost completely reversed the percentages and hit .69 Ground balls for every Fly ball.

Combine these findings with Bill Hall’s ridiculous 19.4% HR / FB ratio in 2006, and we have an issue.  Hall’s HR/FB plummeted after the 2006 season and has since regressed to his career average of between 12-13 percent.

Bill Hall’s competition mainly comes from Mat Gamel, who’s an incredibly intriguing prospect at this point.  I must stress the word prospect, however.  Hall is going to have a repeat of last year’s terrible, inexplicable, .225 BA and sub-.300 OBP for Gamel to get a shot. Unless Gamel comes out and pulls a Ryan Braun, slugging AAA pitching at a .709 Clip for first couple months of the season.

In the end, you’re not going to have to pay that much to grab Bill Hall.  With last year’s production, I’d imagine he’d be heading for the last round of your draft. When you consider the hype that a “30-HR potential” prospect brings to the waiver-wire; Bill Hall might just be a steal. You’ll also know fairly quickly whether or not Hall will excel or flop, which leaves the door open for snagging that prospect who has “30-HR Potential” — It might just be Mat Gamel.

Realistically in deeper leagues, or leagues based in Milwaukee — You may want to avoid Hall.