The Curious Case Of The AL East.

kris — Tue, 17 Feb 2009 05:42:34 +0000

As a native Torontonian and a Blue Jays season ticket holder, I get to behold the beauty that is the Yankees vs. Red Sox reloading period known as Free Agency. People look at the Yankees and Red Sox as fantasy goldmines but with the recent reloading of their pitching staffs, combined with the maturation of the Rays; I’m curious as to how the rest of the AL EAST will fair.

How will the Orioles and Blue Jays offenses, and to a lesser extent the Yankees, Sox and Rays fair against pitching staff’s consisting of 4 and sometimes 5, potential aces. Unfortunately, it doesn’t end with the starting pitching as the bullpen’s in the AL East are also some of the best in the MLB.

Even in 2008, the numbers were:

TEAM	BLUE JAYS	RAYS	SOX	YANKEES	ORIOLES
MLB RANK	1st	3rd	9th	15th	29th
ERA	3.49	3.82	4.01	4.28	5.15

BLUE JAYS

LOST: McGowan (Injury), Marcum (Injury), John Parrish, A.J Burnett. GAINED: Brian Burress, Mike Maroth, Matt Clement, Bryan Bullington,

RAYS

LOST: Edwin Jackson and Trever Miller. GAINED: Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier, Brian Shouse

YANKEES

LOST: Muissina (Retirement), Pavano, Ponson GAINED: Sabathia, Burnett

REDSOX

LOST: Timlin, Byrd, Schilling, Aardsma, Smoltz (Injury) GAINED: Tazawa (Japan), Ramon Ramirez, Penny, Smoltz, Saito

ORIOLES

LOST: Burress, Cabrera, Olson, Cormier GAINED: Uehara (Japan), Hendrickson, Rich Hill, David Pauley, Brad Hennessey, John Parrish

Onto the point young man, get to the point!

Blue Jays and Orioles hitters are going to be facing the Rays, Sox, and Yankees 18-19 times each. Which means they’ll be facing an above average cast of stars, a third of their season which doesn’t include anyone outside their division or Jeremy Guthrie, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, etc. etc.

Season	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
Sabathia	BJ	16	10	3.48	34	34	240	226	21	70	205	7.69	2.63	2.93	0.79	0.25	1.23
Burnett	BJ	14	11	3.62	33	32	224	199	21	88	218	8.76	3.54	2.48	0.84	0.24	1.28
Wang	BJ	13	9	3.7	30	30	200	208	11	58	92	4.14	2.61	1.59	0.5	0.269	1.33
Petitte	BJ	12	10	3.9	30	30	192	205	18	51	147	6.89	2.39	2.88	0.84	0.275	1.33
Chamberlain	CH	8	4	3.39	21	21	101	88	9	39	112	9.98	3.48	2.87	0.8	0.236	1.26
Hughes	BJ	9	5	3.35	22	22	125	110	9	46	122	8.78	3.31	2.65	0.65	0.238	1.25

Beckett	BJ	13	8	3.57	29	29	189	176	21	55	176	8.38	2.62	3.2	1	0.248	1.22
Matsuzaka	BJ	12	8	3.58	30	30	184	160	17	77	174	8.51	3.77	2.26	0.83	0.236	1.29
Lester	BJ	12	11	4.02	32	32	212	209	19	88	168	7.13	3.74	1.91	0.81	0.259	1.4
Penny	BJ	8	7	3.92	22	21	130	134	12	42	90	6.23	2.91	2.14	0.83	0.268	1.35
Smoltz	CH	6	5	3.87	15	15	93	95	9	25	78	7.55	2.42	3.12	0.87	0.266	1.29
Bucholz	CH	7	6	4.27	24	24	116	114	13	51	111	8.61	3.96	2.18	1.01	0.258	1.42
Wakefield	BJ	10	8	3.91	28	28	160	151	21	55	107	6.02	3.09	1.95	1.18	0.251	1.29

Kazmir	BJ	10	8	3.8	29	29	162	144	17	74	177	9.83	4.11	2.39	0.94	0.24	1.35
Shields	BJ	14	10	3.65	32	32	212	210	24	44	178	7.56	1.87	4.05	1.02	0.26	1.2
Garza	BJ	11	9	3.85	29	29	183	181	16	63	153	7.52	3.1	2.43	0.79	0.26	1.33
Price	CH	4	5	4.9	16	16	79	84	12	34	59	6.72	3.87	1.74	1.37	0.274	1.49
Sonnanstine	BJ	11	10	3.92	31	31	195	206	25	40	145	6.69	1.85	3.63	1.15	0.273	1.26
Niemann	CH	5	7	4.86	22	22	111	116	17	47	86	6.97	3.81	1.83	1.38	0.27	1.47

Halladay	BJ	17	10	3.18	32	32	241	228	18	44	172	6.42	1.64	3.91	0.67	0.251	1.13
Litsch	BJ	9	11	4.06	27	27	180	190	21	45	108	5.4	2.25	2.4	1.05	0.272	1.31
Purcey	CH	7	8	4.71	24	24	128	132	18	53	105	7.38	3.73	1.98	1.27	0.268	1.45
McGowan	BJ	7	7	3.95	22	22	128	124	12	52	110	7.73	3.66	2.12	0.84	0.256	1.38
Richmond	CH	5	7	4.89	19	19	105	115	17	36	73	6.26	3.09	2.03	1.46	0.28	1.44
Janssen	CH	3	3	3.81	44	0	52	54	4	14	34	5.88	2.42	2.43	0.69	0.269	1.31

BJ: Bill James Projection Model CH: Chone Projection Model when there was no BJ Data.

An Example:

Nick Markakis is one of the best young outfielders in the league, and most people have him improving upon his 20HR in 2008, and 23HR in 2007. Some think this is a stretch, but it’s the prevailing thought.

Markakis will be facing Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Petitte, Chamberlain, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Penny, Smoltz/Buchholz, Wakefield, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine, Halladay and McGowan with the possibility of Hughes being thrown in there.

Sonnanstine, Penny, Wakefield, and McGowan come in as average players with the possibility of sub-4.00 ERAs.

The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays all have stellar bullpens as well.

The question is whether or not Markakis projections should be adjusted based on the level of competition?

A Non-Math Conclusion — For Now.

As much as I’d like to assume that somehow, someway, the AL EAST pitching will be no better or no worse than it normally is, or the rest of the schedule will even everything out — I CANT! The talent either came from the NL, or within the AL EAST.

Thankfully, other than Alex Rios and Vernon Wells the Blue Jays really do not have any notable offensive fantasy contributors.

The Orioles on the other hand are filled with players that could potentially be effected by not only the front five, but also the depth of the Sox and Yankees. Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Matt Wieters, and Brian Roberts are all going fairly high in 2009. Felix Pie, Adam Jones, Ty Wigginton and Melvin Mora are also on many people’s sleeper lists.

I’m not sure how this will play out, but with so much talent bunched at the top — I’m going to downgrade players on the Orioles and Blue Jays.

Players on the Rays, Yankees and BoSox should roughly stay the same as the O’s and J’s are a mess up front.

If you have the slightest clue as to how this will actually play-out, feel free to comment. For the time-being, I’ll attempt to put together some variety of maths to explain what a reasonable prediction would be a possible unexpected drop in production.

photo courtesy of keith allison flickr

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