The Jays and Yankees in a tight one right now, Roy Halladay looks great and my girlfriend’s cookin’ up some potato-salmon friend fish cakes she found in a Jamie Oliver cookbook.  Forty-Three Thousand apparently made it out to the Rogers Centre tonite.

The mental part of the game always blows my mind, and Mark Teixeira got me thinkin’ about BABIP and more specifically how hitters remain sane when the balls just aren’t dropping.

Teixeira’s currently hitting  .184 on balls in play or BABIP.  Teixeira’s career average BABIP is .309 , and his previous two years have been .344 and .321. Absolutely nothing is dropping for Teixeira, and it blows my mind that he hasn’t over-reacted and started forcing it. Teixeira’s still striking out around his career average of 20% and he’s actually increased his walk-rate a few percentage-points up to 16%.  His discipline hasn’t changed, but the numbers say that his swing may have.  Teixeira is only hitting 10% of his hits for line-drives which is painful considering Teixeira hasn’t finished the season with a LD% lower than 19.8%.

Where are all these line-drives going, you ask? Straight to fly-balls at a 57.1% rate– Which may well indicate Mr. Teixeira’s aimin’ for the fences, and may actually be pressing.  However, it’s not like Teixeira’s swinging at more pitches, inside or outside of the zone.  Teixeira’s making contact at a career-average rate — so what gives?

Well, he’s just in a funk.  I’m going to take six year’s worth of All-Star calibre production over a bad April when evaluating a player, Every Single Time!

There’s no reason to believe that Teixeira will continue hitting fly-balls at a 60 percent clip, as he’s one of the better pure hitters in the game.  Teixeira’s 7 Home Runs might make it difficult to acquire him, but he’s still very close to top-10 talent which is saying a lot considering the depth at first base.

Back in 2007, a couple weeks after Mark Teixeira Scott Boras turned down an 8-year / 140M offer from the Texas Rangers, Teixeira was promptly shipped off, alongside Ron Mahay, to the Atlanta Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and a handful of the Braves’ top-prospects.

The deal made sense at the time as Teixeira was expected to re-sign with the Braves for a tidy sum. With Andruw Jones coming off the books, the Braves would have cash to throw around and the possibility of a long-term switch-hitting duo of Chipper and Teixeira would excite anyone.

At the very least, the Braves dealt from their organizational strengths:  Saltalamacchia was a terrific prospect and ranked as the 36th overall prospect by Baseball America, but was blocked at catcher by then 23-year old, Brian McCann.

With Saltalamacchia the centerpiece, the additional pieces were 2 of the remaining 3 Braves’ prospects in the 2006 edition of Baseball America’s Top-100. Elvis Andrus ranked 65th with an ETA of 2010, and Matt Harrison was the 90th best prospect who appeared close to major league ready. The Rangers luckily declined the Braves final top-100 prospect, baby-faced Brent Lillibridge.

The Braves were loaded with pitching prospects (Tommy Hanson, anyone?) and Yunel Escobar and Brent Lillibridge seemed to be capable shortstops negating the loss of the injury-plagued Harrison, and 18-year old Andrus.

In the play-off hunt with Canadian, Scott Thorman, manning first base was a problem for the Braves.  Teixeira was a premiere upgrade at the Braves’ weakest position and although the Braves missed out on the play-offs — it wasn’t that bad of a trade, was it?

Ron Mahay has proven to be a LOOGY to the bitter end and is still pitching moderately well for the Kansas City Royals at not-quite 38-years old.  In 2007, Mahay compiled a 2.25 ERA in 28 Innings for the Atlanta Braves and was generally considered a useful bullpen member.

The Braves gave up two more prospects though, one of which was Beau Jones who’s currently in AA-Frisco as a 22-year old.  Jones has a live arm and has posted around a strike-out per inning at every level thus far.  At the time, Jones impressed with his mid-90′s fastball and solid hook. Baseball America ranked Jones as Atlanta’s 10th best prospect in 2006 and he has a fairly realistic shot at eventually making the show as a number 4 or 5-type guy.

The final prospect was a doozey in Neftali Feliz.  In rookie ball at the time, 18-year old Feliz had garnered some buzz, but wasn’t quite as hyped as some of the other Braves pitching prospects. Scouts saw Feliz’s fastball touch triple digits and were floored, it was just a matter of whether or not he could control his mid-90′s heat. The MiLB is filled with guys that can throw hard but all too often can’t harness their power. Feliz had only thrown 56 Innings for the Braves at that point, but had impressed mightily regardless of his control issues (4+BB/9).

At this point, Feliz was a high-ceiling prospect, nowhere near Baseball America’s  93rd best prospect as he was in 2008,  and definitely not the same pitcher that Baseball America currently ranks as the 10th best prospect in all of baseball.

The ETA of the now 20-year old Feliz shot from 2011 to 2009, over the course of a single year.  Arguably the 4th best prospect in the deal behind Salty, Harrison and Andrus, Neftali Feliz may turn out to be a steal and considering his current trade value; Feliz could already be considered the best value in the deal.

It’s hard not to wonder whether or not Feliz would have been included in the deal if the Braves would have acquired their left-handed bullpen help elsewhere.

We all know how this ends, the Braves didn’t make the playoffs and finished third in the NL East.  Teixeira was awarded a 1-year, 12.5 million dollar arbitration settlement, but was shipped off to the Angels at the deadline after it became clear that a long-term deal wasn’t likely.  Teixeira played out his year, and is now a member of the New York  Yankees…because his wife likes shopping?

In retrospect, the Atlanta Braves obviously gave up too much as they were unable to resign Teixeira.  They did manage to turn Teixeira into Casey Kotchman, and the Angels’ tenth overall prospect in Stephen Marek but that comes nowhere close to negating the loss of Saltalamacchia, Feliz, Harrison, Andrus and Jones.

The hypothetical question still remains: In a standard dynasty league with no limit on years-kept, would you trade Mark Teixeira for the aforementioned Rangers’ haul?

Teixeira, although currently hitting .182 AVG / .354 OBP / .338 SLG for the New York Yankees, is a lock to hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs well into his thirties.  In the initial draft of a  12-team dynasty league, Teixeira would go late first round / early second round, as he’s still only 29 years old.

Andrus, the defensively gifted speedster, already has shifted Michael Young to third base and is hitting a respectable .274 in his first big league season.  Andrus is still raw, posting a 0.33 BB:K ratio and a .308 OBP, but he’s already stolen 3 bases without getting caught. In Double-A Frisco last year, Andrus stole 54 bases in 118 Games which lead the projection models to predict anywhere from 29 to 51 stolen bases given starters at-bats. In the potent Texas Rangers’ line-up, Andrus should quickly become an above-average fantasy contributor based solely on his SB & R potential.

Saltalamacchia, after an injury plagued 2008 effort, seems to be back on track — well, sort of.  Saltalamacchia, a switch-hitting catcher, has always sported an above-average eye; generally keeping his BB% on the right side of 10%.  In 2009 thus far, Saltalamacchia is hitting a respectable .279, but has only walked 5% of the time while striking out nearly 35% of the time. Saltalamacchia’s line of .279 AVG / .313 OBP / .443 SLG is driven up by his ridiculously lucky .395 BABIP and regression should be expected. Saltalamacchia hasn’t come close to fulfilling expectations, but continues to hold off Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez. Saltalamacchia is still only 24-years old and should continue to improve. Saltalamacchia isn’t among the elite fantasy catchers, but considering his age, he still should rank somewhere around the top-12 dynasty league catchers.

The Rangers couldn’t have dreamt of a better progression for Neftali Feliz.  As mentioned earlier, Feliz has tremendous stuff and is well-deserving of Baseball America’s 10th overall prospect label.

In deeper keeper leagues or dynasty leagues with a minor league system, Neftali is a must-own.  Playing in Arlington should temper expectations, but he still has a dirty repitoire. Of Baseball America’s top-20 prospects, Number 10 Feliz sits in admirable company: Number 2 – David Price, Number 4 – Tommy Hanson, Number 7 – Brett Anderson, Number 9 – Madison Bumgarner, and Number 11 – Trevor Cahill.

Feliz should see some action late this year as a September call-up, so long as Texas doesn’t miraculously stick around in the playoff hunt.  Expecting dominance this year may  be a stretch, but Feliz could be dominant as soon as late next year.

Finally, onto Beau Jones and Matt Harrison, the final two peices in the deal.  Unless you’re in a 50-team dynasty league, you’re probably forgetting about Jones and Harrison.  You should probably keep an eye on the intriguing Matt Harrison though. Harrison’s had some elbow issues and 2009 hasn’t  been pretty, but the talent’s still there. Harrison’s a four-pitch pitcher featuring 91mph fastball, 86mph slider, 76mph curveball, and an 82mph change-up.  At this point, his ERA is north of 6.00 and he’s only managed to strike out 12 batters which matches the number he’s walked, in 26 Innings Pitched.

Saltalamacchia and Harrison were arguably the two biggest pieces to the original Teixeira trade, but to this point have been overshadowed by the massive potential of Andrus and Feliz.

In a deep keeper league of 14 teams or more, Teixeira for Feliz, Andrus, Saltalamacchia and Harrison would be an interesting one to say the least.  Anything under 14-teams and you probably have to lean the way of Teixeira because of that old saying, “a bird in the basket is worth two in the bush, ” or put in language that we can understand: ” a girl in the sac is worth ten numbers in your pocket. ”

In keeper leagues, prospects are nice and all but it never turns out the way it should.

Some Readings:

Rangers Happy With Teixeira Trade Returns, MLB.com

Rangers Future Bright Thanks To Teixeira Trade, MySanAntonio.com

Baseball America’s Top 100 (2009) (2008) (2007)

Braves trade Teixeira for Kotchman, ESPN.

A grand coliseum it is, unfortunately what’s going on inside isn’t gladiatorial at all — it is far more reminiscent of Christians being fed to LIONS.

In the first three games at New Yankee Stadium, the visiting Cleveland Indians have scored, gulp, 37 runs.  The Yankees have managed a respectable,  but not spectacular, 12 Runs.

So what’s this mean?

It means buy, buy, buy them damn Yankees.  Leave the Indians to someone else, while Asdrubal Cabrera is one of my favourite sleepers, let someone else overpay.

As long as the owner of Mark Teixeira or Robbie Cano isn’t a Yankee-homer, or someone who wears their hat backwards, go ahead and pay full market value.  As a general rule, if someone’s douchey enough to wear their hat backwards, they’re generally a Yankees fan. I would say something like 80 percent of people that wear a Yankee hat outside of New York, probably beat their spouse and/or children.  Statistics, people! They MATTER! Not just in baseball either, In Everyday LIFE too!

New Yankee Stadium has the exact same dimensions as the old one across the street.  The fences haven’t been moved, or the stadium tilted off axis.  Same damn ballpark, yet the short porch in right appears to be getting shorter by the second.  The Yankees left handed hitters should have no problem reaching this target, and the righties love to go opposite field.

Ken Rosenthal wrote a piece for Fox, detailing the crazy rate at which balls are leaving the park:

The dimensions of the new Yankee Stadium are the same as the old. The short right-field porch is no more or less inviting. But for whatever reason, balls seem to carry better to right than they did across the street…

“The ball gets legs. It climbs,” says one scout who is attending the opening series. “It’s not so much that it’s getting out of there quickly. It’s just staying up there.”

And once the old stadium is knocked down, sometime this summer, the new stadium could play even smaller.

Yankees general manager Brian Cashman told the MLB on FOX broadcasters before Saturday’s game that the demolition of the old stadium will allow the wind from the Harlem River to blow directly into the new one, perhaps creating a jet stream to left-center field to match the one in right and right-center.

So the Yankees are sucking pretty hard, but do you really think they’ll continue getting their asses beat like this for the next 5 months?  Didn’t think so…

Teixeira, Cano and Swisher will more than likely benefit the most from the craziness that’s ensued.  I liked Teixeira a lot more than most people going into this season because of the short rightfield porch.  I didn’t know it would play THIS small though…

Of course this is a tiny little sample size of 3 games.  Dave Cameron over at the USSMariner.com has also pointed out that HR are up across the board, and they’re actually flying further.

If you want to win your league though, you can’t always rely on proven statistics — they take too damn long.  Sometimes you have to go out on a limb, with a gut-feeling.  In the end, it could just be called an over-reaction, but at this point I’m calling it a hunch.

Adversely, I’m not sure where this puts the Yankees right handed starting pitchers.  I’ve never been a fan of Burnett, and Chamberlain was probably a bit overrated coming in anyways — I wouldn’t acquire them, but if I already drafted them I wouldn’t take anything less than fair-market value.  I’m not selling them off for 90 cents on the dollar, I might think about 95 though — at that point however, it’s just a matter of personal taste.

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30′s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30′s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30′s to low-40′s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.