Lyle Overbay

Sacks Juiced: May 18th

Homer Bailey went seven strong innings against the Brewers, giving up 4H, 2BB and a couple ER.  Bailey settled down well after giving up both earned runs in the first.  He relied heavily on his fastball (71%) but his change-up looked better than it had in a couple starts.

Jay Bruce stole a base and collected a couple hits off lefty, Manny Parra.  Bruce has slowly been improving his platoon splits but it’s still quite sensible to sit him against top-tier lefties.  Jay Bruce is now hitting .280 on the year after a .223 ’08 campaign.  Bruce may be striking out more in 2010 but his swing-rate and swinging strikes are both down.  More importantly, Bruce has upped his walk-rate by swinging less outside of the zone.  You get the feeling that a break-out month is on the horizon for Jay Bruce.

Casey McGehee continued to absolutely punish the baseball with 3 hits on Tuesday.  After a 2009 season where McGehee owned the fastball, he’s been doing most of his damage this year on off-speed stuff.  McGehee’s BABIP isn’t spectacularly high — it’s actually the same .330 it was last year – but with only 10% of his hits as line-drives, there’s some concern.

The Toronto Blue Jays continued to light up mistake prone pitches against the Twins and Carl Pavano.  Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion all went yard.  Blue Jays not named Aaron Hill or Adam Lind will eventually regress but I’m not going to be the one to predict it.  With Hill’s homer and Adam Lind’s 2-hit game, their batting averages now sit at .175 and .231, respectively.  Adam Lind will have trouble duplicating his 2009 break-out season without cutting his Ks down to 2009 levels:  currently, he’s at 29% versus 19% in 2009.

Shaun Marcum continues to dominate with control after missing all of 2009 but the ERA is a bit lucky.  Expecting something closer to 2008′s 3.40ERA rather than 2010′s current 2.61 ERA seems to make sense.  Marcum’s ability to move the fastball and place the change-up wherever he damn-well pleases is extraordinary.

Rick Porcello’s sinker just isn’t sinking which is a problem when your value’s tied up in ERA and WHIP. At this point, I’m having major issues seeing Porcello’s upside, especially if he continues to walk almost as many batters as he’s striking out. Rick Porcello walked another 3 batters last night in a very mediocre performance (7IP, 4ER, 8H, 3BB, 2K) against the White Sox.

With 2 Hits and a steal, Brennan Boesch is now hitting .387 on the strength of a .426 BABIP.  The rook’s slugging percentage sits at a darling .680 but this can only last so long with a BB-Rate of 3% and a 51% O-Swing.

Andruw Jones went 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts last night; Can you believe Jones has 7 SB on the year?

Thankfully for White Sox fans, Bobby Jenks pitched a pretty clean 9th inning:  1H, 0BB and 2 Ks.  Sergio Santos walked a couple in one inning’s work to raise his WHIP to 1.08.  Hitters are only hitting .165 against Santos and his very live fastball (AVG Speed: 95.6mph).

Florida spanked Arizona eight to nil on Tuesday.  Justin Upton was the only Diamondback position player to record a hit — which he bundled with another 2 SO, lovely.

Cameron Maybin hit in the 2-hole and recorded a homer, a walk and a strike-out.  The kid’s still hitting just .242 (on a .341 BABIP) and striking out 32.6% of the time.

David Price pitched another solid game for his sixth win of the year.  I’d really like to see Price return to the BB numbers of 2008 (2.57) before I fully endorse him as elite, though.  While Price is getting a bit lucky on balls in play, he’s still pitching incredibly well with a 3.06 FIP and a True ERA (tERA) of 2.91.

Ben Zobrist is still without a homer, but i’d hardly call him a major disappointment after his 7th steal of the year.  His .340 BABIP is almost negated by a 5% increase in line-drives over last year.  The major concerns that I have with Zobrist is his huge jump in O-Swing (’09: 19%, 10: 27%) and decline in BB-Rate (’09: 15%, ’10: 10%).

The Royals and Orioles game was a thriller, just ask the reported 9,715 fans that showed up at Camden to take in the baseball super-event.  Kevin Millwood, a man that I’ll never roster, continued his hot streak going 8 strong innings, striking out seven without a walk.  Millwood’s ERA is now 3.65 on the year and he’s striking out more than 7 batters per 9.

Jose Guillen had two more hits and is now batting .261 with 8HR.  Guillen has quietly gone about matching his 2009 power numbers in about half the games.  He’s already accumulated one more double, one fewer homer, seven fewer runs, and 15 fewer RBI in 41 fewer games.

Zack Greinke got yet another no-decision, despite 7IP, 2ER, 6K and 1BB.  That’s one whole win on the entire year, folks.  If there’s anyway that you can acquire Greinke, I’d do it.  He’ll still end up with at least 10-12 wins on the year.

I’m a bit sensitive about Josh Beckett as the former Texas Highschooler was one of my first ever keeper picks.  In 4.2IP, Beckett gave up another 3ER — That’s good for a season ERA on the wrong side of 7.

C.C. Sabathia allowed a single run in seven solid innings but I’m somewhat concerned about the strike-out and walk totals.  C.C. has a habit of starting out poorly but he’s barely striking out six batters per nine and walking almost 3-per-9.  He should eventually round back into form before that .239 BABIP catches up to him.

Roy Halladay’s complete game, two ER, six K, performance was out-dueled by Zack Duke et. al.  Evan Meek pitched another solid inning in relief, striking out one and walking another.  On the season, Meek has a ERA of 0.69 and has managed to strike-out a batter per inning while only walking 2.42-per-9.  Evan Meek’s added a couple of MPH across the board and his average fastball hitting 95mph is starting to look closer-worthy.  All the plate discipline indicators show that hitters are having trouble with his stuff; it’s just a matter of sustaining the BB-Rate, which he’s lopped in half since 2009.

Ike Davis hit a dinger, his first in a couple weeks.  While the strike-outs are worrisome, he’s walking almost 16% of the time.  There will inconsistency but Davis has looked pretty good thus far:  .275 AVG /.393 OBP/ .466 SLG.

Kris Medlen continued to prove his case with 6.1 innings of 4 Hit ball.  Medlen allowed a couple homers while striking out six and walking a couple.

I have absolutely no fucking clue how Carlos Silva continues to pitch this well.

Five walks in just over five innings got Jhoulys Chacin into trouble.  He still managed to strike-out six batters and his season ERA is now at 3.12.  If Chacin can keep his K:BB on the right side of two, he’ll have success going forward.  Expect the normal bumps and bruises, though.

Carlos Zambrano pitched a perfect ninth: two strike-outs and no walks!  The Cubs want him and his gigantic salary back in the rotation, which at least gives Big-Z owners hope.

Tyler Colvin took advantage of the playing time, knocking in a run and scoring a couple on three hits.  I’m not sure how the Cubbies can make this work but this kid needs to see some consistent at-bats.

Carlos Gonzalez had two hits for the Rockies but there is something dirty about his 2.7% BB-Rate hitting lead-off.

Ian Kinsler hit his first dinger of the year to help Texas beat the Angels.  On the season, Vladdy Guerrero now has eight homers after another one last night.  The question is not if Guerrero will come up with a bum hamstring but when.

Neftali Feliz is rounding back into form, pitching a scoreless ninth with two K’s.

At what point do the Angels just give up on Brandon Wood? Another hitless game for Wood.

Felipe Lopez lead off for the Cardinals last night.  You know the deal with Lopez, he’ll score runs and steal bases but it won’t be pretty.  I’ve got a feeling that Lopez might return to his 20 SB days after stealing just 14 over the course of the previous two years.

Six hits over two games was all it took Ian Desmond to raise his batting average from .246 to .279 — Wonky, eh?    This is a guy that flashed 30SB potential throughout the minors but it’s yet to translate.  In 2009, across two levels and a cup of coffee (AA-AAA-MLB,) Desmond stole 22 Bases.

Felix Hernandez got hit pretty hard (11H, 2BB) without it translating into ER (3).  Ben Sheets came back down to earth as he walked 4 more batters en route to 4ER.

Kurt Suzuki had 3 hits to raise his batting average from .239 to .264.  He’s still a viable option at catcher.

The story of the extra-innings game between the Padres and the Giants was Mat Latos.  Neither Latos nor the Padres got the win thanks in part to Mike Adams’ blown save in the eighth.  Mat Latos’ WHIP now sits just below 1.00 in part because he’s given up just 1 walk in his previous three starts.  Definitely someone worth locking your sights on.

Bud Norris exploded yet again against the Dodgers.  With a couple of hits and a homer, Carlos Lee may finally be starting to heat up.

Lyle Overbay

If You Wanna Win, It’s Time To Pay Attention.

It’s that time of the year again, the annual dumping of contracts, better known as the dog days of August.  In a perfect world, players would sign contracts that compensate them based on their production and performance.

Unfortunately, mediocre teams sign mediocre players for not-so-mediocre sums of money to show their fans that they’re committed to winning.  Eventually these contracts become blockades that prevent them from competing for anything other than the first overall selection in the June Draft.

Thankfully, there’s a solution in most cases.  Uncompetitive teams place gaudy contracts on waivers and hope that another team’s desperate enough to make a claim, and if they’re lucky, a trade. Occasionally it makes sense to eat a large contract if it drastically increases your chances of a playoff birth.

Older proven players along with the youngsters that fill the void offer the best value you’ll get in a fantasy baseball league now that the fantasy baseball trade deadline has also come and gone.

Alex Rios is now a member of the White Sox, which opens the door for the beloved Travis Snider.  Snider’s still going to have his issues with strikeouts, but he absolutely mashed in AAA-Las Vegas (.337 AVG / .431 OBP / .633 SLG).  Snider led off his second ’09 major league stint with an opposite field shot against Josh Beckett, but has also struck-out three times in two games.  If you’re in need of power, Snider should fulfill that need with every day ABs as promised by Jays’ manager, Cito Gaston:

Manager Cito Gaston said the team’s top prospect will play pretty much every day from here on out as they prepare him for 2010, and Snider feels he’s much more ready to handle the ups and downs of life in the majors than before. Canoe

Aubrey Huff is now a Detroit Tiger, although his role is still unclear.  Huff’s versatility should prove useful and he should settle into the DH-spot nicely.  How the Orioles address this situation will prove to be much more interesting.  Immediately, it seems as though Reimold will occupy the DH spot on a full time basis with super-utility man, Ty Wigginton, getting first-base at-bats.  Wigginton currently has first, third and outfield eligibility in all leagues; However in many leagues he’s amassed enough games at second and shortstop to qualify at MI as well.   Wigginton is always useful if he’s given a shot and in deeper leagues, the situation’s well worth monitoring.  The Orioles also recalled former top-prospect, Michael Aubrey. Aubrey doesn’t have the bat, but really reminds me of a Lyle Overbay -type player.  Obviously Lyle just proved that anyone can go on a tear and everyone’s worth monitoring.  Even though Felix Pie has continued to be a huge dissappointment, I’m still keeping my eyes peeled.

The Indians placed Trevor Crowe on the 15-Day DL and V-Mart’s still a Red Sock — Really, Pinch yourself.  It’s not a dream, he is a Beantowner — which opened up a spot in the line-up for Matt LaPorta.  Much like Travis Snider, LaPorta has absolutely destroyed AAA pitching.  Unlike Snider, LaPorta has focused on exactly what needed improvement.  LaPorta’s seen his K-Rate decline while raising his BB%, which is good for a promising 0.75BB/K ratio. With Jamey Carroll as his only competition for the left-field gig, LaPorta should get more than his fair share of playing time.  If you’re looking for a spark, I’d be hedging my bets towards LaPorta rather than Snider.

In Texas, the catcher’s spot just got that much more confusing.  Salty’s on the DL and while Taylor Teagarden’s been told that the job is his, the recent acquisition of Pudge should interest deep-leaguers.  A return to Arlington shouldn’t hurt and Rodriguez has always been one to raise his level of play for a late-season push, but we’re still talking very-deep leagues only.  The player of interest here, is Julio Borbon who has 8 SB and 13 Hits in 9 games.  Borbon definitely has the speed, but his base running skills still need refinement.  This is a situation you’ll definitely want to monitor as Nelson Cruz is slated to come of the DL today or tomorrow.  If Borbon can find a way to stick with the big club or manage a September call-up, he’ll be very useful in short stints.

St. Louis has taken a chance on John Smoltz.  Old Grey Beard Smoltz has sparked more discussion than his NFL Counterpart, Brett Favre (okay, maybe not that much).  In Boston, Smoltz was all over the place with an ERA over eight.  He was however, still striking people out while posting solid peripherals. This has definitely become a must-watch situation, with Smoltz recently suggesting he’d be better suited to start rather than set up Ryan Franklin.   A return to the National League could prove the cure to Smoltz’s ailment and where else could you find a potential late-season ace?  If you’re riding high in your head-to-head league, you’ve probably got 3 weeks before your first playoff game which would allow Smoltz to show his worth or give you time to cut-bait.

Milwaukee has cut ties with Bill Hall, trading him to Seattle to replace the nutty Adrian Beltre.  Hall’s not particularly interesting, McGehee’s still doing what he does, and the Mat Gamel-era isn’t all that far away.  Gamel should be called up as rosters expand and barring utter-insanity, should see plenty of games at 3B to close out the season.  Just how hard is it to get rid of one of these high-paid under-producing veterans?  Milwaukee will eat the entirety of Hall’s 2009 contract, along with 7.5 of the 8.4 Million owed to Hall in 2010!

With Willy Tavares hitting the DL, the Cincinnati Reds recalled outfielder Drew Stubbs who promptly hit a walk-off, game-winning, extra-innings home run.  Unfortunately, Stubbs probably won’t produce as advertised.  Stubbs’ 46 SBs in AAA are tantalizing, until you realize he’ll have issues getting on base.  It shouldn’t surprise you to see Stubbs strike-out more than 1/3rd of the time and how well his walk-rate will translate is still up in the air.  There’s definitely power-potential in Stubbs’ 6’4″ frame, but probably not in 2009.

There are a couple interesting moves that don’t particularly have fantasy implications.  Firstly, Vicente Padilla is now a Dodger with all of their recent pitching injuries.  In extremely deep leagues, there’s a shot that Padilla could contribute in wins and maybe ERA.  The strike-outs are long gone, but I’m sure there’s a league somewhere interested in him.

Gaby Sanchez was called up and VandenHurk optioned, but more importantly it appears as though Anibal Sanchez may be healthy.  With the Marlins back in the playoff race, there’s a shot that Sanchez could be quite useful down the stretch.  If Sanchez is back to throwing 95mph (as advertised), there’s definitely intrigue.

After waivers comes the expansion of rosters in September.  A lot of two or three category youngsters will get the call.  These players will definitely contribute in small stints based on match-ups.

Lyle Overbay

Operation Rake: Recent Bombers For A Playoff Push

I guess it’s time to rub it in, Kendry Morales is a beast.  On the season, Morales has 60 R / 75 RBI / 25 HR and a .300 AVG.   My only concern with Kendry Morales was his work ethic or his “fat and lazy” rating, which is still a concern.  I thought I was going out on a limb when I predicted 25 HR, but apparently not as Morales continue to smoke the ball.

In both Yahoo and ESPN standard leagues, Morales is still only owned in 80% of leagues, despite being a top-50 player in both.  Over the past two weeks, Morales has caught fire.  Only Mark Reynolds has more HR over that span, and his season is so inexplicable that I’ve given up trying to understand it.    On the season, Morales has kept a steady BB% while limiting his strike-outs.  Finding an OPS on the green side of .900 shouldn’t be this easy.  So, obviously if Morales is available, snap him up — but realistically, this is more about me just jerking off my ego.

The Atlanta Braves are only 3.5 out of the wild-card spot (when I looked that up I nearly shat myself.)  I get to catch the occasional game on TBS, and definitely enjoy “THE BRAVES PLAY HERE” commercials between re-runs of Friends, or Seinfeld, but it never clicked in that the Braves were in a playoff race.  Either way, Adam LaRoche is home, and is a prime “BUY NOW” candidate.  LaRoche is only owned in 28% of Yahoo! leagues, and has 3HR and a .395 AVG over the past two weeks.  ZiPS has LaRoche pegged for 23 HR on the season, or 7 more, but I’m taking the over.  LaRoche will get to 25HR on the year, and he’ll do it while batting…gasp…275ish.

If you read any other Fantasy Sports websites, odds are that you’ve already rushed out and picked up Big-Fat Billy Butler.  I love the kid, and I’m not sure if he’ll be overrated or underrated going into next year, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.  As for this year, Butler’s mashing with a .353/.397/.588 slash-line.  He’s still only owned in 36% of leagues, but should definitely finish the year as a top-12 first basemen.

Sticking to America’s mid-west like Angus Chili to your ribs, I’ll deal with my biggest mistake in Alex Gordon.  There’s no explaining Alex Gordon, and I’m sure I’ll be hyping him going into next year too.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon manages a decent surge to close out the 2009 season, though.  There’s no reason to recommend Gordon, and I probably should be recommending Gordon Beckham, but I’ve got a gut feeling.  Gordon’s still striking out way too much, but I can see a nice little home-run tear in the near future.

I’ll close things out with a Blue Jay:  Lyle Overbay has been absolutely killing the ball, when he’s not walking (25% BB) or striking out (25% K.)  I won’t whole-heartedly recommend Overbay, but he’s always had the talent to be a doubles-machine.

Lyle Overbay

The Toronto Blue Jays, For The Wins?

Brian Burress and his brand-spankin’ new 12.76 ERA and 2.54 WHIP will not be included in this article.  The main benefactor, Alexei Ramirez and his 5RBI, will also be left out of this discussion.

In case you haven’t figured out by now, the Jays are my home squad and while they’re not my favourite club — I manage to watch at least a few innings of each game.

As always, the small-sample size warning is in effect, but here are your Toronto Blue Jays with some quick analysis and statistics that stand out, at least to me. Read more

Lyle Overbay

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining First Basemen.

As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago.  I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.

Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:

POS	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	Mixed $	AL/NL $	MOV
1	2	Albert Pujols	STL	1B	36	37
Here we have the no-brainer to end all no-brainers. I can’t see him posting another season with such a ridiculous BA though. Still worth every penny of the 35-40 Dollars you spend on him, though.
2	7	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B	31	29
Cabrera or Texiera? Who’s the better deal? Whoever falls further, or costs less. Other than that, it’s a toss up.
3	10	Mark Teixeira	NYY	1B	29	27
Texiera’s RUN and RBI totals should be off the charts but his real value comes from his defense. New York Pitchers will be thanking him.
4	13	Lance Berkman	HOU	1B	28	28	down
There will be a decline from last years numbers, the question is “how much?”. The steals just seem to linger, and it’s getting to the point where you can count on Berkman to snag more than his fair share of bags. I think Howard surpasses him.
5	19	Ryan Howard	PHI	1B	24	26	up
Howard is a beast, and last year’s BA was awful. There’s no way he’s that awful again, and he’ll be a steal. The strike-outs are ugly, but don’t count in fantasy. I’ve talked about punting batting average before, and in a competitive league it might make sense to do that if Howard falls into your lap.
6	22	Prince Fielder	MIL	1B	23	25
Fielder is a curious case: All the talent in the world, but hasn’t quite put it together. He’s clearly got the power, but guys ahead of him have to get on base, which is a problem in Milwaukee. There’s a good amount of boom/bust in Milwaukee this year.
7	32	Justin Morneau	MIN	1B	19	25
Morneau gets overrated due to his MVP and HR Derby win, but he’s a solid run producer. If Mauer is out, Morneau takes a huge hit – but with an improving Minny offense, it’d be wise to expect a slight increase in 2008′s numbers for Morneau.
8	39	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	3B/1B	16	23
In my books, Youk should have won MVP last year. The man was a cog, both offensively and defensively. While the scorekeepers were kind to Kevin, he is a gold-glove callibre first baseman.
9	55	Derrek Lee	CHC	1B	13	21	down
Lee’s the first pick I really disagree with. He’s getting old, has lost the speed that made him special, and is a long ways away from his golden power years. He’s still a beast when healthy, but at this point there’s a lot more value out there.
10	57	Adrian Gonzalez	SD	1B	13	21	up
Adrian Gonzalez is that value. I’d have no problem with someone ranking Gonzalez a full tier ahead of where he sits, in Youkilis territory. San Diego doesn’t have a great ballclub, nor do they have a great park but…but…but…half of his games are on the road.
11	67	Chris Davis	TEX	3B/1B	12	21	down
Davis will start incredibly hot, and I’ll get emails telling me I’m retarded for saying he’s ranked far too high but Davis is too high here. Way too high. His strike-out rate is ridiculous, and while his SLG percentage makes up for a lot of it – he’s still young and this is going to be an up and down year. If he can prove that he’s a productive high-K guy like Ryan Howard, then I’ll buy it. But for now, drop, drop, drop.
12	74	Carlos Pena	TAM	1B	11	19	up
Pena’s a steal, and while I think the Rays over-achieved last year – Pena wasn’t one of them. His 31 HR was a major decline from 2007′s 46 dingers. The batting average will never be there, but he’ll top the .247 he put up last year. Pena’s entire career has been a roller-coaster ride.
13	80	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	10	19	up
As a Canadian, I love me some Joey Votto. Votto has been having a great camp, and had an amazing stint, however brief, at the WBC. Originally down on Votto, I think he outperforms Chris Davis by a hair.
14	85	Garrett Atkins	COL	3B/1B	9	18
I’m not a huge Garrett Atkins fan, but he puts up numbers. If you’re drafting Atkins, you’re probably taking him as your third baseman, or corner infielder. He’ll put up very solid power numbers, to go along with a very solid .300 BA. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atkins get closer to 30HR than his projected low-20′s.
15	119	Conor Jackson	ARI	1B/OF	7	17
Speaking of a power-outage at first base, here’s Conor Jackson. He’s an unconventional first baseman, in that he’ll help you in the R & AVG category rather than RBI and HR. Right now he’s set to be playing left-field, with Chad Tracy manning first but if Byrnes returns to form – Jackson will return to first.
16	138	Adam LaRoche	PIT	1B	6	16
…and now the polar opposite of Conor Jackson, Adam LaRoche. LaRoche is a notorious slow-starter, but I’m expecting bigger things this year. If he comes into camp ready to play, he’ll top 30 HR easily. He’s a pure power hitter and he’s improved his average from awful to respectable.
17	140	Carlos Delgado	NYM	1B	5	15
Carlos Delgado is old and boring, but he’ll produce. I’m not sure how many games he’ll get in, but planning for injury always comes back to bite you in the ass. If the robots say Carlos is going to hit 30HR and drive in 100 runs, who am I to argue. The batting average is always the first to go though, and maybe you should expect something in the .260-.265 range.
18	151	Pablo Sandoval	SF	1B	5	14	down
Sandoval hammered the ball last year, and like Atkins, you’ll probably be playing Pablo as your third baseman. However, he’s not a terrible option at first. His SLG percentage in limited action last year was almost .500. His BABIP was a smidgen high, so expect regression but Pablo can ball. His miniscule walk rate is concerning however. I’m not quite as high on Sandoval as some others.
19	154	James Loney	LAD	1B	4	14	up
Loney is Conor Jackson v2.0. When you look at Loney, you figure he’s gotta develop power at some point, but it’s proving to be quite the chore for James. My projection for last year was 20HR and a .300 AVG, and it’ll be the same thing this year.
20	162	Paul Konerko	CHW	1B	4	15	down
Even if Paul Konerko exceeds expectations, I’d still rather have anyone else on this list. There is reason to believe though, but I can’t bring myself to say it aloud so: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/konerkos-not-dead-yet
21	189	Jorge Cantu	FLA	3B/1B	2	13
If nothing else, Florida will be a blast to watch. The line-up is filled with boom or bust free swingers, and Cantu definitely fits that mold. Cantu had a career year last year, and it’s unlikely he’ll repeat but…if Gaby Sanchez or Dallas McPherson fall flat on their face, Cantu will play the full sched. 29 HR is probably out of the question, but anywhere between 20 and 25 seems completely reasonable. The RBI and R numbers should be solid.
22	190	Carlos Guillen	DET	3B/1B	2	13
Another guy you’re not going to play at first, but his versatility escalates his value. Guillen’s been aging well enough, and he’ll always hit for a solid average and score runs. A healthy Carlos Guillen is a steal even if he only hits 15 HR. It’s tough to find 180 RBI + R at this point, especially when you throw in a .290+ AVG
23	261	Casey Kotchman	ATL	1B	$-	11	up
I like the Casey Kotchman, and I like him a lot. He should flourish with a full-time gig in Atlanta. Atlanta’s currently rostering a pretty boring outfield, but the kids infront of Kotchman should get on base. He wont put up crazy power numbers, but he’ll hit ‘em where they aint. Expect solid R & RBI totals. Kotchman is probably the most likely of the bunch to add 10-15 HR to his totals, and leave your opponents scratching their heads.
24	269	Mike Jacobs	KC	1B	$-	10	down
Jacobs is a bit of a downer with the talent KC has waiting in the wings for the first base job. With that said, if you’re punting batting average – Jacobs is the man. If you can tolerate a sub-.250 BA, Jacobs is the man. If you’re in a HR only league, Jacobs is the man. There’s no reason why Jacobs shouldn’t be able to eclipse the 30-HR mark.
25	274	Billy Butler	KC	1B/DH	$-	10
Big-Fat-Billy-Butler did not have a good start to the 2008 campaign. The man is still a professional hitter, and I think the Royals get on base this year. He’ll have plenty-o-chances to knock ‘em in, and score some himself. Good call here, ESPN.
26	282	Todd Helton	COL	1B	$-	9	down
This is where we have to ask ourselves the question of whether or not Todd Helton lost “it”. Everything points to Helton still being a competant .300 hitter, that just had major injury issues in 2008. Helton’s back is shot, and 20 HR looks like his ceiling. Other stats are nice though, it’s painful to take Helton but at some point, you must.
27	286	Lyle Overbay	TOR	1B	$-	9	down
As someone who watched Lyle Overbay on a daily basis, I cannot give a fair opinion on him. He’s awful, though – just incase you were curious.
28	291	Hank Blalock	TEX	3B/1B	$-	9	down
Blalock’s interesting as a third baseman, and boring as a first baseman. Davis appears to have the first base job on lock-down, and Michael Young has the third-base gig. Elvis Andrus and Omar Vizquel are by no means “sure-things” but it looks like Blalock will be manning the DH spot. From the looks of it, he’ll have to share it with David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton or Andruw Jones.
29	292	Casey Blake	LAD	3B/1B	$-	9
Blake’s a solid contributor in a great line-up. He does everything well, but I have him below the next two guys.
30	293	Nick Swisher	NYY	1B/OF	$-	9	up
Swisher has to find a spot to play, but once he does he’ll be unstoppable. Swisher is a high OBP guy, who strikes out a good amount. He was also one of the unluckiest gentlemen in the majors last year. Expect a better batting average, more runs scored, more runs knocked in – Sleeper Supreme.
31	296	Jason Giambi	OAK	1B/DH	$-	9	up
Giambi returns to Oakland, and Oaklands put together a fairly solid team. They may just be the best team in the West. It’ll largely depend on the maturation of their prospect-laden starting staff. Anyways, Giambi should have a full-time gig at First/DH and has show he still has stuff left in the tank. Go ahead and draft him.
32	303	Ryan Garko	CLE	1B	$-	8	up
I’m back on the fence about Garko after feeling like he’d be a sleeper-steal this year. The Indians have been playing him out in left field, and LaPorta is looking solid. Even banking on the fact that Pronk can’t stay healthy, Garko’s job is still in jeopardy with V-Mart and LaPorta breathing down his neck.
33	329	Gaby Sanchez	FLA	1B	$-	7	up
Gaby Sanchez is a sexy rookie, and I’m surprised that ESPN has him all the way down here. Mike Jacobs proved that you can score a lot of runs, and knock in even more in that Florida line-up. If Sanchez is able maintain a job, he’ll be a steal. Especially at 329th overall.
34	336	Chad Tracy	ARI	1B	$-	7	down
Not a fan of Tracy, as I tend to think Eric Byrnes’ giganto contract will force him into a starting gig.
35	385	Chris Duncan	STL	1B/OF	$-	5
Duncan is interesting as we approach 400th overall. Skip Schumaker has been making a smooth enough transition to second base, leaving an outfield spot up for grabs. Smart money was on Colby Rasmus, but if he continues to struggle the Cardinals’ outfield may just be Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick.
36	423	Travis Ishikawa	SF	1B	$-	4
The Giants are begging Ishikawa for production, and the “kid” has impressed so far. I like him slightly less than Sanchez in a terrible Giants offense.
37	426	Nick Johnson	WAS	1B	$-	4
Johnson isn’t going to stay healthy, and most leagues don’t count OBP. In addition to this, the Nats’ first base/outfield situation is a mess. Johnson could be a steal but there’s a lot of risk here.
38	427	Ronnie Belliard	WAS	2B/3B/1B	$-	4
Belliard quietly put up a solid season last year, but I doubt he’ll find a place to play this year. Monitor him if someone goes down.
39	428	Cody Ransom	NYY	1B	$-	6	hrm
Too much depth in New York, but I guess someone has to play third base while A-Roid recovers.
40	434	Kevin Millar	TOR	1B	$-	5
The Jays could have done worse, and why Millar would be here and Overbay all the way up there boggles my mind.
41	479	Jeff Baker	COL	2B/1B	$-	2
He might snag AB once Helton goes down but for now it looks like the infield is full.
42	490	Wilson Betemit	CHW	3B/1B	$-	2
A solid safety net as Josh Fields is as untested as they come.
43	520	Daric Barton	OAK	1B	$-	2	up!
I’m not sure how ESPN got so down on this once-prized-prospect. Barton should produce well above the 2 dollar range.
44	530	Willy Aybar	TAM	3B/1B/DH	$-	1
Playing time is going to be the problem.
45	666	Chris Shelton	SEA	1B	$-	1
Seattle is bad, real bad.
46	729	Rich Aurilia	FA	1B	$-	$-
Seriously?
47	747	Michael Aubrey	CLE	1B	$-	$-
Interesting, but I’m not buying it this year.
48	782	Doug Mientkiewicz	LAD	1B	$-	$-
No Way In Hell.
49	785	John Bowker	SF	1B	$-	$-
This is why the Giants want Travis Ishikawa to succeed.
50	786	Aaron Boone	HOU	1B	$-	$-
Could provide some solid numbers if he finds a place to play.

What’s Missing?

Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year.  If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.

Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy.  Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.

The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel.  Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.

Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam.  Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year.  The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.