Khalil Greene

Khalil Greene – For The Win!

In standard 12 team mixed leagues, you’re accustomed to seeing Khalil Greene’s name atop the waiver wire.  The man just sits there like a plague, each and every year, waiting for some fool to notice his latest power surge between stints of being downright awful and add him to their roster.
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Khalil Greene

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Shortstops

If you’re in a keeper league, shortstop is always the hardest position to fill.  In 2009, the shortstop position is a mess and if you don’t get one early, you’re in trouble.

Luckily there’s help just around the corner, unfortunately it’s not in the yahoo player pool quite yet. Mike Moustakas, and Gordon Beckham aren’t all that far away and should probably be in the pool by next year, if not later this year.  Tim Beckham and Wilmer Flores on the other hand are still a couple years away, but you never know what Yahoo and ESPN will do to their player pool come 2010.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

Onto the Shortstop Rankings for a Deep (ish) Keeper or Dynasty League

1. Hanley Ramirez – FLA Marlins – 25 - Number one pick in fantasy this year, and probably for the next 5 years.  Any decrease in speed should be off-set by an increase in power.

2. Jose Reyes – NY Mets – 25 - At some point he’ll develop power, until then just enjoy the ride.  The first two picks really need no explanation at all.

3. Troy Tulowitzki – COL Rockies – 24 - This is where the explanations begin:  Tulo isn’t the most talented offensive shortstop left on the board, but he does play in Colorado. His glove-work will help keep him on the field throughout the worst o’ slumps.

4. Stephen Drew – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 – Drew has better offensive potential than Tulo and is starting to come into his own.  This may be Drew’s break-out year, and ranking Drew and Tulowitzki is a coin flip.

5. Alexei Ramirez – CHI White Sox – 27 - Ramirez is a popular pick this year, and he brings a rare power/speed combo to the table. He’s a free swinger, and while I woudln’t go out of my way to pick him in a one year league; he has solid long-term value.

6. J.J. Hardy – MIL Brewers – 26 - Hardy brings much needed power to a light hitting position. At 26, Hardy is just starting to enter his power prime.  Expect improvement.

7. Jimmy Rollins – PHI Phillies – 30 - Rollins had a terrible year last year, but he managed to save it by stealing a shit-tonne of bases.  The speeds slowly going to fade away, so Rollins needs to prove he return to his 20-30 HR days.

8. Rafael Furcal – LA Dodgers – 31 – Furcal’s starting to get up there in age and he’s pretty gosh-darn fragile.  I’m assuming 31 is his actual age, but who knows. He’s still performing at an efficient level, and there shouldn’t be a drop off for another couple years.  Nice Power/Speed combo.

9. Jhonny Peralta – CLE Indians – 26 - Peralta is a masher and after his disastrous 2006 season, he’s continued to improve.  He’s pretty much a lock for 20+ HR, and should continue to improve.  His batting average no longer kills him, so he’s a nice bet for your starting SS.

10. Yunel Escobar – ATL Braves – 26 - I probably have Escobar higher than most, but with an eye like Escobar’s — there’s something there.  Escobar posted damn-near as many walks as he did strike-outs, and while his batting average was sub-.300, he’ll push it up and over that mark to stay in 2009. Escobar isn’t a power guy, nor is he a speed guy but he is going to be the SS for a young, talented, Braves team.  With the amount he gets on base, he’ll be scoring plenty of runs with Franceour, Schafer, Heyward, and the harem of minor-league talent in Atlanta.

11. Elvis Andrus – TEX Rangers – 20 - Speed, Speed and more Speed.  He’ll develop the rest in due time.  The stolen bases should keep him rosterable during the slow maturation process though.

12. Derek Jeter – NY Yankees – 34 - I haven’t the fondest clue as to how much Jeter has left in the tank, let alone how long he’ll stick at shortstop.  While he’s there, he’ll provide a little bit of everything.

13. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 - Does he stick at short? Does he cut down on those strike-outs? Wood has all of the potential in the world, but unless he cuts down on those K’s, he’ll be one of the biggest busts of the century.

14. Alcides Escobar – MIL Brewers – 22 – Escobar’s got a great glove, that’ll keep him in any line-up.  He’s currently blocked by Hardy at SS, but Hardy will be the one to move.  Milwaukee has enough talent in the pipe-line to trade Matt LaPorta, so there’s no reason to believe that Escobar won’t be a run scoring machine.

15. Jed Lowrie – BOS Red Sox – 24 - I’m not a believer, and I’m not sure how long he’ll stick at the shortstop position.  If he sticks, he’ll provide great value from a hard to fill position.

16. Michael Young – TEX Rangers – 32 - Young’s shortstop eligibility is gone after this year.  I’m not sure where to rank him based on this.  He’ll probably log between 10 and 15 games at Shortstop this year, so he could potentially maintain his eligibility. He’s got a great team, and a great ballpark which leads  me to believe that he’ll remain useful for a few more years.

This is where the fun begins, as we’re getting into the guys that aren’t guarenteed a job, or are old as dirt.  Either way, expecting more than 2 seasons out of them is asking a lot.  If you’ve got a feeling — go with it!

17. Mike Aviles – KC Royals – 28 - Is Aviles a late-bloomer or a bust waiting to happen.  Aviles just keeping the seat warm for Moustakas.

18. Miguel Tejada – HOU Astros – 34 - I’m not sure what’s left in the tank, even if he avoided jail time.  He’s probably got about 2 years left of being somewhat rosterable. The solid Astro’s line-up should at least keep his counting stats up.

19. Khalil Greene – STL Cardinals – 29 - I’m tempering my man-crush on Khalil in the keeper rankings.  Greene has the potential to really move up these rankings, and he’s still young enough to contribute for 4 or 5 more years.  I’d definitely recommend taking a flier on Greene this year.

20. Ryan Theriot – CHI Cubs – 29 – As high as I am on Greene, I’m equally as down on Theriot.  I am not a believer, and after this year he may well be without a job.  There’s potential here, but I’m not buying the hype.  The solid line-up really saves him from a free-fall.

21.  Felipe Lopez – ARZ Diamondbacks – 29 - I like Lopez a good bit this year, and he has a whole lotta potential buried inside — somewhere.  If he’s allowed to run, he’ll fit somewhere between Wood and Jeter.

22. Jason Barlett – TAM Rays – 29 - Barlett’s in a solid line-up and has improved quite a bit since he was traded away from Minnesota. Tampa has a prospect line-up waiting to fill Barlett’s shoes.  If Brignac fails to man up, Bartlett will have a few years to put up stats before Beckham gets to the show.

23. Orlando Cabrera – OAK Athletics – 35 - You might get more than a couple years out of Cabrera. He seems like the kind of player that just wont go away.  He’ll be production for at least 2009, and he might be worth a pick if you think he’ll play at a high level into his late 30s.

24. Edgar Renteria – SF Giants – 34 - Renteria falls into the same category as Cabrera, and while there’s still a few prospects out there — I’d rather take someone like Renteria to contribute the next couple years while I wait to draft a SS prospect.

25. Erick Aybar – LA Angels – 25 – Aybar is a nice little mixture of speed and average.  I’m fairly high on Wood, because of his potential.  Aybar doesn’t have the potential, but he probably has a solid shot at sticking at SS even if Wood starts producing.

26. Absdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians – 23: I like Cabrera, and he should develop into a solid every day second basemen.  He’s got the potential to be above average, but there’s also a bit of risk associated with him.  He’s got the job however, so he’s one of the safer choices under 25 years old.

27. Yuniesky Betancourt

28. Clint Barmes

29. Chin-lung Hu

30. Alberto Gonzalez

31. Brendan Harris

32. Nick Punto

33. Reid Brignac

34. Emmanuel Burriss

35. Alberto Callaspo

36. Nick Punto

37. Brent Lillibridge

38. Marco Scutaro

39. Jerry Hairston Jr.

40. Cody Ransom

The back end of these rankings needs work, but if you’re in a league this deep — you’re probably pretty knowledge about fantasy baseball.

Khalil Greene

Spring Training: In Like A Lion and Out Like A Lamb.

Does a drastic increase in OPS during spring training foreshadow a breakout season? Who knows.  Regardless of such uncertainty, here’s a few gentleman that’ve been putting up very solid numbers.

Kevin Frandsen (2B – SFG) is hitting .303 with a .424 SLG which should probably be enough to hold off the charging Emmanuel Burriss (2B-SFG) who’s hitting .397 with a .492 slugging percentage.  Eugenio Velez (2B/OF – SFG) isn’t that far behind hitting .339 and slugging .548.  Everyone but Frandsen possesses solid stolen base potential, but it looks like a two-horse race between Frandsen and Burriss.  Giants manager Bruce Bochy said he’d announce the winner of the open-competition before the Giants left Arizona on Wednesday.

Daniel Murphy (LF – NYM) seems to be going higher and higher in drafts and with the spring he’s having; it seems warranted. Murphy’s hitting .333 with a .455 slugging percentage.  He hasn’t hit a dinger yet, which should worry you a little bit considering he’s only going to have OF eligibility.

This may be the year that Corey Hart (OF – MIL) puts everything together.  He’s your typical tools guy, who hasn’t quite put it together.  Hart’s already got 6HR and is batting .404.  It seems as though our favourite free-swinger may have put some time in this off-season. 13 strike outs to only 3 walks is still concerning though.

Our favourite error-prone Canadian Mark Teahan (2B/OF – KC) has hit 5 HR in only 39AB. He’s hitting .487, and only has 8 strikeouts compared to 5 walks.  Fellow Royal, Mike Jacobs (1B – KC) has hit 6 HR, but has also struck out 18 times! I still would have some issues rostering Jacobs. Billy Butler (1B – KC) has been posting terrific numbers too.

Two aging first basemen are both healthy and raking.  Todd Helton (1B – COL) and Paul Konerko (1B – CHW) are both hitting over .400 with 4 HR. Both of these guys should be rosterable in deep leagues, and borderline in shallow leagues.  I wouldn’t be surprised if both of ‘em go through streaks where they perform in the top-10 first basemen.

Sweet-Swinging Jeremy Hermida (OF – FLA) may have finally put it all together. He’s hit 4 HR, and is batting .340 with 5 walks to 9 strikeouts while slugging .642. Delmon Young and Jeremy Hermedia are two post-hype sleepers you probably want to keep an eye on.

The perennial prospect, Brandon Wood (3B-LAA), looks primed for at least a useful year. He’s hitting .347 while slugging .735.  The key stat for Wood is 8 strikeouts in 49 AB.  For someone who’s known for putting up a 30 percent strike-out rate, this is spectacular.

I’m really starting to worry about everyone’s favourite American League Sleeper, Chris Davis (1B/3B – TEX). 21 strikeouts in 61 at-bats during Spring Training is concerning, very concerning.  I’m sure he’ll put up solid numbers in Texas, but he’s going to be streaky. Two other youngsters, Colby Rasmus (OF-STL) and Chris Dickerson (OF-CIN) are also posting unhealthy strike-out numbers.  Dickerson is still very worthy of a draft-pick at this point, even in shallow leagues.

Carl Crawford (OF-TAM) seems healthy again, Thank God.  He’s stole 6 bases in 37 AB. Not many people think the Rays will compete with the Red Sox and Yankees in 2009.  This should help Crawford’s stolen base numbers.  40 Stolen bases from this former first rounder isn’t out of the question.

I wouldn’t put too much weight on it, but Adam Jones (OF – BAL) is having a great spring. Jones is a ball player, with a very solid shot at 20/20 this year. Last year’s 9 HR and 10 SB just seems ridiculous considering his talent.  Jones is one hell of a sleeper in just about any format. It also appears as though Jones will open the year hitting second in the new Orioles line-up, which should mean an increase across the board.

Pablo Sandoval ( UTIL – SFG) just won’t go away.  I really don’t like Sandoval as a sleeper, something just seems off.  He is however hitting .448 with 39 total bases in 58 AB.

Everyone’s favourite Toronto Blue Jay, Travis Snider (OF – TOR), is hitting a very solid .381 with a .690 slugging percentage.  Snider’s my favourite player, so don’t expect unbiased information from this analyst.  The single, paltry, walk is still concerning.  We’ll see how long it takes pitchers to start adjusting to him.  The Blue Jays won’t be hesitant to send him down, but he belongs on the big league roster.

Staying on Travis’, Travis Buck (OF-OAK) and his beautiful Man-Mane is starting to come into his own and continuing the Athletics trend of walking just as much as you strike-out.

One of my favourites, Kendry Morales (1B – LAA) appears to be posting a solid spring with a .356 AVG and .576 SLG.  I’m not sure why more people aren’t hyping him up — when he came out, he had all sorta of hype, and then got the “fat and lazy” tag.

Hey, Shouldn’t You Be Striking Out?

Nelson Cruz (OF – TEX) strikes out at 25 percent clip has 5 strikeouts and 4 walks in 31 AB.

Hank Blalock (3B/UTIL – TEX) also seems to be showing last year’s huge decline in K-rate is the real deal.  He’s struck out 6 times, and walked 7 times in 48 AB.

Ian Stewart (3B – COL) seems to have shown improvement over last year’s 35 percent strike-out rate. He’s only struck out 7 times in 44 AB, to go along with 5 BB.

In addition to killing spring training pitching, J.J. Hardy (SS – MIL) has only struck out 5 times in 52 AB.  That’s the same amount he’s walked.

Does Rick Ankiel (OF – STL) ever stop improving? He, of the 2008 25% K-Rate, is hitting .356 with 12 K and 11 BB in 73AB.  I’m starting to buy this whole “Rick Ankiel Is Awesome” talk.

Khalil Greene ( SS – STL) has seriously only struck out 3 times in 60 AB. Greene still doesn’t walk, but he’s an annual 25% strike-out guy. Maybe we’re onto something, maybe he’s just enduring one of his hot-streaks.

Jason Kubel (UTIL – MIN) and his 20 percent career strike-out rate has only 3 K’s in 45 AB.

Cameron Maybin (OF – FLA) and his 12 strike-outs to 7 walks in 54 AB, is intriguing — very intriguing.  Every projection model out there has Maybin striking out at a 30 percent clip.

Khalil Greene

Diva On A Dime: Fantasy Baseball Edition

Diva on a Dime is a downright awful show, that I believe is truly 100% Canadian Goodness. If left unchecked, Canadian televisions stations would just play American TV shows all day, every day — this is how we end up with CANCON, which forces Canadians to sit through hours of awful television.

Anyways, it’s time to create a fantasy baseball roster without using a single player drafted in the top-200 picks according to ESPN’s Average Live Draft Position.  Obviously, with fun little gimmicks like this, we’re going to be going high-risk/high-reward.

Diva On A Dime Hitters (ADP>200)

C: Kelly Shoppach – Pick 211: Shoppach had 21 homers in 352 AB. A lot of people are going to shy away from him because he doesn’t have a spot to play. A healthy Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko really clog up his options.  Lucky for you, good hitters find spots in the line-up.

If you think all three of the aforementioned players stay healthy, then maybe go with Ramon Hernandez (Pick 202) or Jeff Clement (Pick 245).  I’d also take a risk on Saltalamacchia who doesn’t even register with ESPN at this point.

1B: Big Ole Billy Butler – Pick 242: At this point in the draft it makes sense to go with a lighter hitting first baseman with a solid batting average, rather than a masher like Mike Jacobs / Adam LaRoche. Butler’s competition comes from Loney (ADP: 166), Kotchman (ADP: 237) and a few over-the-hill sluggers (Helton, Giambi, Konerko).

Butler however brings the best value, and best power potential of the doubles-machines.  Loney has the better line-up, and batting directly after Manny will allow him ample opportunity to drive in runs, but Butler has a shot at 22-25HR.  Toss in his .300+ average, and an improved Royal’s squad and we have our first baseman.

Bill James’ Projection Model has Butler at: 73 R/ 18HR / 87 RBI / .295 BA with 15 SB — just kidding, but Zips and Marcel have Butler stealing 2 bases in 3 attempts.

2B: Felipe Lopez – Pick 216: I’m all over Lopez like white on rice. 2005 was a 23HR season, and 2006 brought us 44SB.  Lopez is still only 28 years old (turns 29 in May) but it seems like he’s been around forever.

With Lopez on a good team, and apparently wanting to play again — I expect big things.

SS: Khalil Greene – Pick 224: Greene has been smashing the hell out of spring-training pitching to the tune of a .400 average and .560 SLG percentage.  I’ve been high on Greene all winter, and this doesn’t change my mind.  I wouldn’t rate him terribly higher based on these spring training stats because he’s still Khalil Greene, which you can clearly see by comparing his .400 AVG to his .429 OBP.

MI: Orlando Cabrera – Pick 204: I was tempted to go with Elvis Andrus (ADP 228) here, because we’re going to need some serious steals — but we’ve already got Greene killing our BA.

I like Cabrera in the new and improved Oakland line-up, and expecting 20SB to go along with a solid .280 BA, and at least decent Run totals should fill the hole.

The potential for Andrus and his 50SB is tantalizing.

3B: Edwin Encarnacion – Pick 198: Hey, up until a couple days ago he was ranked right at 200th overall.  Every thing’s in-line for a break-out season. I did a write-up on Edwin a couple days ago, it’ll do all the ’splainin’

CI: Mark Reynods – Pick 202: We need 30 HR from this spot, so this comes down to a brutal battle between Reynolds and Jason Giambi. I’d like to take a chance of Kendry Morales, who doesn’t even register on ESPN — but I’ll save him for later.

The battle between Reynolds and Giambi comes down to BA, and strangely enough Reynolds wins. All of the projection models believe his 2008 average of .239 was a mistake, and he should rebound to anywhere from .249 to .269.  I can live with that, so long as the HR, R, RBI are there.

We also just nabbed ourselves 10 more SB.

OF: Nelson Cruz – Pick 202: Bill James has him coming in at 31HR, 81R, 92RBI with a .280 average.  While i’m not completely sold, and I still somewhat see Cruz as a quad-A player — Cant turn him away at pick 202.

OF: Elijah Dukes – Pick 226: Oh Me, Oh My.  Dukes has all the talent in the world, and could easily go 25HR/25SB but he could also hit 3 HR and steal .75 Bases.  This is the high-risk/high-reward thing I was talking about.

OF: Chris Dickerson – Pick, I dont Know: Let’s drop the bomb and select another potential 25/25 guy with a whole lot of risk.  BJ Robot has him at 37 Steals and 21 HR! I’ll take that.  His skill set is nice, and Reds fan’s will appreciate him.

UTIL: Shin-Soo Choo – Pick 204: Might as well throw in another solid Power / Speed combo guy with a solid average.  At this point, the outfield and util spots have really saved this team.  Choo’s on many folks lists to break out in 2009, and I can’t blame ‘em.

…now onto pitching

SP1: Brandon Morrow – Pick 217: I thought with the hype Morrow was getting he’d be way above this point.  Take Morrow and Run.  He’s got a great K-rate, and while he’s a bit wild, don’t worry be happy.

SP2: Chris Young – Pick 219: Chris Young has bad luck, but isn’t a huge injury concern unless you think he’s been psychologically broken by that Pujols line-drive to the face. With Young you’re getting the potential for a Golden-WHIP (1.13 in 2006, and 1.10 in 2007) and at least 8K per 9.

SP3: Ubaldo Jiminez – Pick 227: You’ll notice we’re loading up on high-strikeout pitchers.  With the lack of saves available to us at this point, we’re probably going to have to punt the category and thus draft some very solid late-inning relievers.  They’ll be bringing low-era, low-whip to offset our massive control issues.

Jiminez is posed for a break-out year, even if half his games are pitched at Coors.

RP1: Jason Motte – Pick 210: Motte’s value will keep rising with the news that he’s won the closer role over Chris Perez, in St. Louis. We’ve got a shot at some saves here, so we might as well take it.

RP2: Jose Arredondo – Pick 233: There’s still a couple closers, but that’s no fun.  If you’re into Huston Street or George Sherrill, the choice is yours. At this point though, Arredondo brings a lot of goodies, like a solid era and a very good K-rate.

Expecting a return to 10-win-land is ridiculous, but pitching in late relief for the Angels will provide him with plenty of chances to nab those random-wins or even saves.  He should be one of the first non-closers off the board.

P: John Maine – Pick 226: Maine regressed in every possible category last year.  If he levels out, you should expect a sub-4.00 ERA, 180K, and round about 1.30ish WHIP.  This is pretty solid for a player who’s upside could easily eclipse these numbers.

P: Manny Parra – Pick 234: I’m banking on Parra improving in 2009, along with him pitching a full-season. Parra’s a solid lefty that should be able to put up 8ish K per 9. The K:BB ratio is only going to be around 1.5, which’ll limit your WHIP to around 1.40ish with a good amount of upside.  Parra won’t repeat the 1.54 disaster  that he called his 2008 WHIP, again.

P: Jared Weaver – Pick 216: Weaver was once a top-prospect that all the fantasy folk were drooling over.  Now, he seems to be an afterthought.  The man’s got terrible hair, but all the potential in the world.  His nearly 8 K per 9, combined with a very solid 2.81 strikesouts per walk, makes for a steal at this pick.

P: Hong Chih-Kuo – Pick 244: I figured I’d toss another reliever in here that’ll put up some solid rate stats.  We’ve got all these high-strikeout, high-walk rate starters that we need to offset. Kuo struck out 96 to only 21 walks in 2008, and in doing so posted a beautiful 4.57 K:BB ratio.

You can use this as a list of sleepers, or just something to kill time but each of these players are available after pick 200 and each could contribute to your team in even the shallowest of standard-leagues.

Khalil Greene

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining Shortstops.

And now onto the ESPN shortstop rankings, which seem pretty solid at least at first glance.  There’s a few guys I’m not fans of, but they’re ranked in these spots by just about every expert.  They’ll probably perform at this level, and I’ll probably be wrong.  Regardless of such reality, I’ll rank ‘em where I think they’ll perform:

Rank	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	MIX$	AL/NL$	UP/DWN
1	1	Hanley Ramirez	FLA	SS	38	40
There’s always an argument for not taking someone first, but this year Hanley seems like a sure-fire bet for number 1 in all leagues.
2	4	Jose Reyes	NYM	SS	35	35
Hopefully the power will come, all the signs were there and then he fell flat on his face. If he adds the power so many scouts said he had him in, he’ll rival hanley.
3	9	Jimmy Rollins	PHI	SS	31	34
Rollins had a nasty year last year, and the only thing that saved him were those stolen bases. I’d expect somewhat of an improvement across the board, which’ll be offset by a dip in speed numbers
4	65	Derek Jeter	NYY	SS	12	24	DOWN
I’m not a Jeter fan, but he does put up numbers across the board. He’ll undoubtedly go too high in your league, but batting early in that New York line-up will help his R and probably his RBI totals too. The loss of A-Rod hurt him though.
5	70	Rafael Furcal	LAD	SS	10	24
Furcal’s just gotta stay healthy and he’d easily come in at 3rd overall on this list. He’s a perfect power/speed combo but has as many injury concerns as anyone in the league
6	78	Stephen Drew	ARI	SS	9	23	DOWN
I’m on the fence with Drew. He’s young and there’s lots of room for improvement, but there’s also plenty of room for him to be a bust this year before going on to have a long prosperous career. Last year’s .291 average shouldn’t be expected again. Think more in the .275 range.
7	88	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	SS	8	20	UP
Tulo should rebound nicely after last years abysmal start. 8HR and .263 isn’t Tulowitzki. Think closer to 20HR with a .290 average. Could be a steal, but like Drew could also fall flat on his face
8	105	Michael Young	TEX	SS	7	20	DOWN
Young’s moved over to third to allow the speedster Andrus to get AB. While Young was never a defensively gifted SS, the move to a somewhat less demanding position defensively should help prolong his career. Texas’ line-up is always fun to watch, and expecting the same as last year seems about right. Somewhere around .300 with about 15 HR seems reasonable.
9	130	J.J. Hardy	MIL	SS	5	16	DOWN
25HR, .275 BA, and about 80-85 Runs and RBIs seems reasonable. Hardy’s one of the better RBI producing Shortstops, if you skimped in the power-positions.
10	139	Jhonny Peralta	CLE	SS	5	17	UP
Another RBI man, Peralta has been up and down the last few years but he’s starting to level off into a consisent run-producing machine. Peralta doesn’t steal though, and this may pose a problem if you haven’t grabbed speed elsewhere. In the ballpark of 100 Runs and 85RBI with 20 HR is as good as it gets at the position though.
11	159	Mike Aviles	KC	2B/SS	4	15	DOWN
I’m not sure why I dislike Aviles so much, he hasn’t done anything wrong. His Minor League numbers show his .330 AVG wasn’t out of the blue but – Never Bet the Farm On BA, and that .359 BABIP is gaudy. When the end of the year rolls around you should be happy that Aviles hit .295 with 70 each of RBI and RBI, and maybe 10-15HR. He could go for 20 if all the stars align, I guess.
12	166	Miguel Tejada	HOU	SS	3	13
It looks like Tejada is going to get off with just probation for his little escapade. I wont get into how much bullshit that is, but Tejada does what he does and the Astros are a better team for it. The Days of 30HR are over, but there’s probably still a 10 percent shot of an insane year. In a perfect world, we’re insanely happy with 23-24 HR to go with 80 of R&RBI. Realistically, 20 HR and 75 of each seems right.
13	176	Ryan Theriot	CHC	SS	3	13	DOWN
Somethings things look too good to be true, and Theriot is one of them. The .307 Average is bound to drop, 22 SB is nothing to write home about and his Run numbers will free-fall if he cant get on base. There’s a lot of Theriot bashing going on over at Fangraphs, but that BABIP vs. Expected BA really stands out…330 vs 290. You think he’ll free-fall?
14	204	Jason Bartlett	TAM	SS	1	11	DOWN
How much is 20 SB worth to you? With Bartlett, you’re getting an extra 15 SB over the no-stealers above him, but you’re sacramenting everything else. .280, 60 Runs, 50 RBI with a .280ish average. Bartlett is however a possible break out player and realistically just needs to move himself up in the line-up to have great value. Unfortunately, with Upton, Crawford and Iwamura up there, the odds of movin’ on up are slim.
15	215	Orlando Cabrera	OAK	SS	1	10	UP
Cabrera’s a great fit in a very improved Oakland offense. Move him up more than a couple spots. He may be the biggest asshole money can buy, but 80 Runs and 70 RBI seem about right depending on where he hits. He’s always been at least an average base-stealer, and so long as he doesn’t start getting nabbed all the time – he’ll steal 15-20.
16	232	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS	1	10
Speed Kills and it better, because at this point Andrus doesn’t have anything else. Even if he takes up the rear of the Rangers batting order, he’ll still score runs. 65Runs, and say 45-50RBI is about right… and then BAM, if he’s allowed to run he’ll steal 40-50.
17	255	Jed Lowrie	BOS	SS/3B	$-	10	DOWN
I’m not a fan of Average Lowrie. Everything about him screams average, to slightly above average. There’s a shot Lugo still takes his job. Whoever wins the job will put up good, solid, numbers in the Red Sox lineup.
18	263	Cristian Guzman	WAS	SS	$-	8
Guzman got on base at a ridiculous clip last year. If he bats lead-off again this year, and maintains his silly-stupid leadoff skills he’ll be a top 12 SS. Unfortunately nothing leads us to believe that Guzman can do what he did last year again. I like Guzman as a boom/bust type in that improved Nat’s lineup.
19	276	Yunel Escobar	ATL	SS	$-	7	UP
There’s nothing not to love about a guy who walks as much as he strikes out, while hitting .300. Escobar will put up a nice OBP if that’s your thing. He wont run much, but 10 HR and 70R/60RBI seems about right.
20	285	Khalil Greene	STL	SS	$-	6	UP
My favourite sleeper, or at least one of them. Over the past 3 or 4 years, I’ve grown to hate Khalil Greene and his infinite talent with all of my soul. I figure a change of scenery may actually help him, and while he’s killing spring training pitching I wouldn’t move him up too high. That BA will kill you even if he ups it to .260
21	291	Brandon Wood	LAA	SS/3B	$-	8
One day Wood is going to get a shot to prove his worth without feeling like he could be sent down after an 0/4 performance. I think if Wood ever gets a fair shot, he’ll eventually develop into what everyone thought he’d become. This year, I just cant see where he’ll play unless someone gets hurt. Someone always gets hurt though.
22	296	Clint Barmes	COL	2B/SS	$-	6
Do not like Barmes, at all.
23	300	Asdrubal Cabrera	CLE	2B/SS	$-	8	UP
Do Like Cabrera, a lot. A healthy clean-up hitter, a healthy Cleveland line-up = sneaky good numbers for Cabrera.
24	318	Erick Aybar	LAA	SS	$-	7
Well, someone’s gotta play short and I’d rather have Aybar over Izturis.
25	322	Edgar Renteria	SF	SS	$-	5	UP
Awful San Fran line-up but Edgar deserves to be a smidgen higher. He should bat early, and big ‘ol Bengie Molina will drive him in.
26	331	Yuniesky Betancourt	SEA	SS	$-	6
27	344	Jerry Hairston Jr.	CIN	SS/OF	$-	5	UP
I like Hairston a lot, he had a great year last year in limited action and it looks like that’ll be the case this year too. He’s quick, and’ll steal bases. Dickerson looks to have the LF job on lock-down, but he could falter. Hairston’s versatility makes him useful in almost any league.
28	348	Julio Lugo	BOS	SS	$-	5
Awful BA, could steal some, will score some. Watch the Lugo/Lowrie situation unfold, LIVE on mlb.com
29	370	Jeff Keppinger	CIN	SS	$-	4
…never bank on BA for value
30	377	Emmanuel Burriss	SF	2B/SS	$-	4
Speed is nice. Frandsen is not.
31	381	Cesar Izturis	BAL	SS	$-	5
An Age’d Freddy Bynum
32	393	Maicer Izturis	LAA	2B/SS	$-	4
Could steal some…
33	395	Alex Gonzalez	CIN	SS	$-	3
No thank you.
34	466	Aaron Miles	CHC	2B/SS	$-	2
35	472	Nick Punto	MIN	2B/SS	$-	2	UP
Punto should go higher, as he’ll get his AB.
36	476	Nomar Garciaparra	OAK	SS	$-	2
37	479	Brendan Harris	MIN	2B/SS/3B	$-	2
38	487	Brendan Ryan	STL	2B/SS	$-	1
39	517	Bobby Crosby	OAK	SS	$-	2
Thank God the Bobby Crosby Experiment is over. I hear he’s learning second base now!
40	522	Ben Zobrist	TAM	SS/OF	$-	2
41	524	Jack Wilson	PIT	SS	$-	1
42	527	Marco Scutaro	TOR	2B/SS/3B	$-	1
Hrm, move him up a smidgen.
43	528	David Eckstein	SD	SS	$-	1
44	534	Gordon Beckham	CHW	SS	$-	1
If he plays this year, Chicago is on crack. I wrote a piece on him the other day, and while I love him – rushing him is an awful idea.
45	551	Tony Pena Jr.	KC	SS	$-	1
46	565	Angel Berroa	NYY	SS	$-	$-	UP
This one’s interesting. Move him up.
47	685	Ronny Cedeno	SEA	2B/SS	$-	1
48	735	Brian Bixler	PIT	SS	$-	$-
49	738	Brent Lillibridge	CHW	SS	$-	$-
50	754	Alcides Escobar	MIL	SS	$-	$-	UP
Nice place to end the rankings, but if Escobar plays I’d expect him to be higher than this. If Bill Hall continues to Bill Hall the situation, I’d expect Escobar to make his way into the line-up rather than Gamel. I think Hardy can play 3B – actually, it may be a pipe dream. Disregard.

ESPN hasn’t missed much with these rankings but,

Adam Everett – Detroit Tigers: While Everett brings the suck, he’s probably got a starting job save Ramon Santiago stealing a couple AB here and there.  In that Tigers line-up, everyone should have value.  Carlos Guillen’s days at shortstop are well over.

There’s a couple here and there, but I’m pretty satisfied with these rankings.

Khalil Greene

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers By Team

Fantasy Baseball has its share of guys drafted in the late rounds, or picked up for a dollar that really pan out.  You’re generally not going to get anyone who absolutely kills it for a buck, or in the last round, unless you’re in a 10-12 team default league.  But here are some guy’s that’ll fill in nicely.

Minor Leaguers / Hot Prospects will have their own list, so they are excluded from this one.

Position Players

Anaheim Angels

Kendry Morales (1b) came over from Cuba in 2005 with a boatload of hype, and then proceeded to become spectacularly average.  The Fantasy World was abuzz just a few years ago about the Angels’ corner infielders, Dallas McPherson and Kendry Morales.  Then, they just stopped maturing, and when called up couldn’t produce.  None the less, Morales has had an incredible winterball season and obviously the talent is there.  Power hitting first basemen aren’t going to be gotten for a buck, but he’ll be cheaper come draft day.  Hopefully the Angels stay with Morales and resist the temptation to sign a first baseman.  Morales will produce and 25HR, 85RBI, 75R, and a .270 AVG seems reasonable.

Houston Astros

J.R. Towles (C) came into last year as the second hot catching prospect behind Soto. While Soto excelled as a major league backstop, Towles really shit the bed.  It Wouldn’t be out of the question to see Towles hit 15-20 HR, and Bill James has him hitting 17HR. Keep an eye on the starting Catcher’s job as Toby Hall was recently brought in to clean up the mess if Towles struggled.

Oakland Athletics

There’s going to be some value here, the problem is there are a lot of players around the same talent level fighting for jobs.

Ryan Sweeney (CF) wins the starting CF job, and has the possibility of going 15HR, 15SB.

Travis Buck (RF) has a tonne of talent, and flopped horribly last year.  He’s a top-tier young player that should develop power to go along with his solid batting eye.  As with all the stupid Athletics — Buck walks a lot and strikes out more.

Eric Patterson’s (OF /2B) AAA averages of .300+ have not translated well to the big leagues.  The Athletics acquired Patterson in the Harden deal, and will eventually end up with a solid player.  He’s got speed and, above all, second base eligibility.  If the Athletics can find a place for Patterson, he’ll be worth the dollar or two you’ll have to spend on him. His MLB strike-out rate isn’t a pretty sight though, so lets just hope he can drop it below 20%.

Daric Barton (1B) is yet another On Base Machine in the Oakland Athletics system.  He hit .347 in 84 PA in 2007, and then proceeded to stink up the joint (AAA and MLB) in 2008. Barton should have the inside gig on the first base job, with Jason Giambi as the DH.  If he continues to stink it up though; Giambi will move to first with Cust to DH which opens up the outfield for the two names above (Patterson or Buck).

Toronto Blue Jays

Travis Snider (OF / 1B) probably wont come as cheap as I’d like, but he should put up a solid rookie/sophmore season.  He came up for a cup of coffee in 2008, and impressed.  Generally listed among everyones top 10 MLB prospects, Snider is only 21 and has flown through the Jays system.  In limited action in 2008, he hit .300 with a couple dingers. There’s always the possibility the Jays start Snider off in the minors and keep him there for a good chunk, to save cash in the long run.  If Snider can keep ahold of the starting gig for the entire season, 20 HR aren’t out of the question.

While Snider may have more future potential, Adam Lind (OF) looks primed for a solid and productive 2009 campaign.  The Jays babied Lind quite a bit as he was coming through the system, and many Jays fans wanted Lind to stick with the big club a year earlier than he did.  Adam Lind has a realistic shot of hitting between .290 and .305 and, while his power numbers are sick-awesome, he should get to 20-25 HR on the season.  Lind brings incredible value to the table, and should be cheap come draft day.

Atlanta Braves

Josh Anderson(CF) will find a place to play in 2009, he’s gots-ta.  Anderson has quick-fast feet and should steal plenty of bases, cheaply.  He’ll hopefully get on-base somewhere between 33-35 percent of the time and could steal 35-40 bases this year if given the chance. Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones sit ahead of him, both of which have hopes and dreams of their own.  Anderson should be able to snake the starting CF job away from Blanco.  Anderson’s one of my favourites going into the season.

Martin Prado (UTIL) is a second baseman by trade, but has filled in for Chipper Jones and will continue to fill in at third whenever Jones goes down.  While Prado doesn’t have a starting gig, he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.  His .320 batting average last year was a result of a silly-stupid .360 BABIP but he appears to be a legitimate .290 – .300 hitter with not much else.  He gets on base, and has a good LD%.

Casey Kotchman will outperform his value, but by no means is he a sleeper.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bill Hall (3B) hit 290 in 2005, and everything was looking up. Then his strike out rates went as follows, presented with the corresponding averages: 2005 20 K%, .291  AVG, 2006 30 K%, .270 AVG, 2007 28 K%, .254 AVG, 2008 31 K%, .225 AVG.  To expect things from Hall is nutty, but if he can just manage to keep that bloody K percentage down to even 23-25%, he’ll be useful.

Anyone know if Alcides Escobar can play a solid third-base?

St. Louis Cardinals

Khalil Greene (SS). I like Greene this year, and I’m crazy for it.  It’s one of those doesn’t make sense gut feelings, that will either win you or lose you a fantasy league. Maybe he hits .260 and pulls his typical week with 5 HR, 4 Weeks with 0 HR type season.

David Freese (3B) went from three years of high and low A ball with the Padres to killing in triple A with the Cardinals.  Something smells fishy, but he’s listed as the guy behind Glaus.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Fontenot (2B) is the closest thing to a sleeper on this team, and who knows if he’ll out-perform his value.  He deserves to start over Aaron Miles, but weird shit happens in the windy city.  Keep an eye on this little situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Felipe Lopez (2B) will be filling the void at second left by Orlando Hudson, the O-Dog. I’m pretty high on Lopez, but he’s got some attitude issues.  Lopez probably makes my list of top 10 sleepers going into 2009. He should get down to business and put up some incredibly solid numbers.  He’s capable of batting .290 and stealing 30 or more bases, which cant be said for the other guys Melvin might think of batting atop the order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lopez occupy the 1 or 2 hole, and reap the rewards of a solid Arizona Diamondbacks line-up.

Lopez played 13 G at SS, 13 G at 3B, 17 G in the OF, and 101 at 2B.  Check your league settings because Lopez could be the ultimate fill-in.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Do the Dodgers get a deal done for Manny Ramirez?  If not Juan Pierre (OF) might become a bit more attractive with his huge contract floating around. However, Pierre’s name may add a couple bucks to his actual price tag, which you might care to avoid. 40 SB from someone who wont kill your batting average is always nice though.

Blake DeWitt (2B / 3B) has the inside line on the second base job over Mark Loretta.  He doesn’t bring anything particularly sexy to the table, but the kid can play.  The second and third eligibility helps.  All and all nothing overwhelming in Dodger-land.

San Francisco Giants

Lots of Fun in Giants camp! Pablo Sandoval (3B, 1B, C) is everyones favorite sleeper for the entirty of Fantasy Baseball for 2009.  He’s not a sleeper anymore, but the kid can play and did play 11 games at Catcher, 12 at third base, and 17 at first.  It looks like he’ll be playing third this year, but check your league settings.  Nothing is more annoying than finding out someone isn’t eligible for a position.  If he’s eligible for catcher in your league, snatch him the hell up.

Emmanuel Burriss (SS / 2B) should win the job over Kelly Frandsen, maybe.  Along with Burriss, Eugenio Velez (2B) has a shot of snagging that opening.  Velez will bring you ridiculous SB, and could be solid but is going to have issues matching Burriss defensively.  It’ll be itneresting to see how this plays out, as both Burriss and Velez should be able to get you a bunch of SB, assuming they win the job.

Cleveland Indians

Matt Laporta (OF / 1B) will go with the rookie rankings but hopefully he plays this year for the big club.

The Indians have quite a few guys with room for improvement and maturity, yet none of them really classify as sleepers. Shin-Soo Choo (OF / RF) looks darn good and had quite the season in just under 100 games for the tribe last year. The .309 BA is nice, but the .373 BABIP is ridiculous. His Line Drive percentage is nice and pretty above 20%, but .373 is ridiculous.  He got lucky, but he can still go and hit 20+ HR for the tribe this year, and he does still have some speed in the tank (enough for 10SB? Maybe)

Keep an eye on Ben Francisco as well, the other corner outfielder.

The Entire Indians Infield (DeRosa, Cabrera, Peralta, and Garko) have the ability to eclipse their dollar value / draft round, in 2009.  Not sleepers, but worth a look. I’m especially high on Cabrera and Garko, as the other two have gotten their fair share of pre-season hype.

Seattle Mariners

What a waste-land.  I’m not a fan of the Mariners, at all. Everytime they come to Toronto, hoards of japanese people come out and scream their faces off at Kenji Johjima and Ichiro Suzuki.  They’re like rockstars, and the 16-22 year old Japanese girls that scream for them act like their white peers at an All American Rejects concert.

Jeff Clement (C) isn’t a sleeper, but he should outperform his draft stock.

Florida Marlins

Much better, the Florida Marlins have some sleepers. Jeremy Hermida (RF) has all the tools to be great, not just good — but GREAT.  Most fantasy owners get pissed off when they read about sleepers for a couple years, and they just never pan out. Hermida falls into this group, the post hype sleeper group. 2008’s 28 percent strike-out rate is a weeeeeeeee bit concerning, but sometimes you just gotta trust your eyes and go with that sweet sweet swing.

Cameron Maybin (OF) should be good, not quite yet though — He’ll be hanging out with LaPorta in the “rookies who can make a difference” room.

John Baker (C), Oh how I like thee.  His outlook looks good, and he’ll be great value in the last round or two of your draft — If he flops, which he could well do, just cut bait.  Otherwise, I’m fixin’ on predictin’ 350-400 AB to go with 15 HR

Dallas McPherson (3B) should be good but the hype machine is starting it’s engines, and with the ridiculous amount of homers he’s put up in the Minors the past couple years — the experts are remembering just how much they LOVED McPherson 5 years ago.

New York Mets

The Mets’ outfield other than Beltran looks to have a good bit of talent floating around it. I’m generally against listing sleepers from big market teams, as ESPN tends to showcase the hell out of them but Ryan Church (OF) has been solid, but not spectacular for sometime now, and other than a broken brain looks good. With Church, you might get 20 HR, a handful of steals, and a guarenteed .275 average.  He’s quite serviceable in deeper leagues. The 20-25% K rate is concerning, but if he’s adding power while doing it — I’ll take it.

Daniel Murphy (OF / 2B? / 3b?) could make a big impact in fantasy circles this year. His .386 BABIP last year inflated his stats, but he’s still only 24 years old. Murphy can play just about anywhere, but will start the season qualifying only as an OF.  There’s a chance with the right set of circumstances that he snags eligibility at 2B and/or 3B.  If he comes out of camp as the starting second baseman, he’s value is going to be solid as all hell. His LD rate was a stupid-silly 33 percent last year, which makes that .386 BABIP not so ridiculous and while his K rate was 20+ percent last year — he should drop it down below 20 (if minor league stats have any influence whatsoever on MLB stats). If Murphy can steal 10 bases, which he’s more than capable of, he’ll be useful in all but the most shallow of leagues. If you consider him a sleeper, Murphy is top 5.

Jeremy Reed (OF) came over from Seattle, and the talent’s there.  He hasn’t managed to put it together, and his top-prospect status is long gone. Maybe he’ll react well to being out of Seattle and begin putting up the numbers once expected of him.

Washington Nationals

Their outfield is stacked with former top prospects, absolutely stacked.  I’m not sure if it’ll ever gell considering the attitude that’s out there but:

Lastings Milledge (OF) was the chosen one in the Mets farm system for a few years before coming over to the Nats.  As with all New York prospects, the great ones are blown up way too big, and the smaller ones get lost in the shadows to become great players. Milledge does have the talent though, as he can easily steal 25 bases to go along with his developing power.  Last Years 14 HR season should be improved upon, actually all of his numbers should be improved upon. If he can keep his LD rate above 20, and his K rate below it — he could outperform the massive hype surrounding him..lets hope.  He’s not a one dollar sleeper, and you’ll have to pay to get him but the potential is there.

Elijah Dukes (RF / OF) has more power than Milledge, but also has more issues.  If Dukes has 15 wives and each wife has 2 children, and each child has 3 Daddies,  how many children is Dukes really the father of? Dukes has all the talent in the world and if everything goes well he could smash his draft day value. Read this carefully: Elijah Dukes could reasonably go 30HR and 30SB, with a .275BA given he reaches about 600PA.

Josh Willingham (LF / OF) could get to 25 HR pretty easily, but keep in mind his BA isn’t pretty and he strikes out a hella-lot.

Jesus Flores (C) could be one to keep an eye on, but he’s not particularly a sleeper.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore and Mike Flanagan are doing a terrific job building their organization the right way — by fleecing other teams of their young talent.

Matt Weiters (C) cannot possibly be considered a sleeper, and he’ll join Laporta, Maybin, and Escobar in the Rookie Category.

Even Adam Jones (CF / OF), one of the nicest guys in baseball, isn’t particularly a sleeper.  He’ll improve upon his numbers of last year, and he’s a super prospect but you’ll probably have to pay some cash money to get him.  Jones has 20 HR pop in his bat as soon as this year, and on a team that loves to just go out and have fun — he should be fun to watch.  Throw in 10-15SB, and you’ve got yourself a ballplayer.

Felix Pie (LF / OF) will more than likely be a second half sleeper.  It may be worth it to draft him, but I’d wait a few months before grabbing him.  If your league is shallow, feel free to grab the speedy young OF whom the Cubs gave the Orioles for essentially nothing.  If he’s allowed to run free, expect a cheap source of stolen bases.

San Diego Padres

I’m not sure where I stand on Chase Headley (OF / 3B?). The Kid has all of the talent in the world, but is it too soon? Chase strikes out too damn much, 31.4% K Rate! but when he does hit the ball he’s a line-drive machine, 25% LD! The Homers aren’t there, but he’ll grow into it eventually — He’s a sleeper, but not one i’d like to have on my team unless I’ve got balls of steel. If Kouzmanoff gets hurt and Headley can move to third, we’ve got a whole new ball-game.

Edgar Gonzalez (2B) might be worth a look if not for that pesky David Eckstein.

Philadelphia Phillies

World Champs don’t produce sleepers.

Raul Ibanez (OF) might be worth a long, long, look though.  He’s no world champ — but he is a .290 hitter with power, who’s numbers have been skewed by Seattle’s awful ballpark.

Who know’s how he’ll adjust to NL pitching after 10 years in the AL, but he’s worth a very very long look.  He wont come for a buck, but i bet he outperforms his cost by at least 3 to 5 dollars.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Rookie Outfielders Andrew McCutchen (OF), Steve Pearce(OF), Jose Tabata(OF) could all make a difference in your fantasy league this year depending on its size.  They’re getting hucked into the Rookie category. I was thinking of putting Pearce here, but it’s easier to put him with the other two star prospects.

Really only Andy LaRoche (3B) sticks out as someone I’d genuinely like to have on my roster.  While Freddy Sanchez (2B) could put up a solid batting average, he’s too hit or miss.

Andy’s brother Adam LaRoche (1B) is primed for a breakout year but is in no way a sleeper.

Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus (SS) can boogey, and he’s won the starting shortstop gig. The Rangers were wise to sign Omar Vizquel (SS) just incase.  Andrus gets thrown in with the other rookies later, to a lesser extent.

Anyone in the Texas Line-Up should produce solid numbers, as Arlington is a  bloody Band-Box.

Take David Murphy (OF) if he takes the LF job, and all signs point to yessir — he’ll put up stellar numbers.

Chris Davis (1B / 3B) lost his position as a sleeper the day he was born, so please dont ask.

Tampa Bay Rays

I cant seem to find a sleeper here; eveyrone on their squad should probably perform up to par. Ben Zobrist (OF / SS) qualifies at shortstop and could well snag the right field job, but I still woulnd’t count on that many AB. His power seemingly came out of nowhere and with a 13% LD rate and a corresponding .255 BABIP, things dont look particularly solid moving forward. He’s got a solid walk rate (13%) which negates most of his 20% strike-out rate.  Hrmm, it’s interesting.

Matt Joyce (OF) who’s penciled in ahead of Zobrist at RF could provide you with solid power numbers to go with a beautifully awesome .260 AVG. Joyce strikes out about a quarter to a third of the time, but he’s a true masher. Against righties Joyce should put up solid numbers, and maybe your league undervalues him.

If you can get Joyce on the cheap, you’ll be incredibly happy as he’ll put up great numbers.  Just dont over-pay, mind you — what is overpaying for 30HR in 500 AB?

Keep his name on your cheat sheet and snag him if the time is right.

Boston Red Sox

There’s no sleepers on this team, who are we kidding. If Ortiz gets dead, Rocco Baldelli (OF / DH) should put up solid numbers.

Cincinatti Reds

Jay Bruce (OF) is a sleeper, sort of — I tend to think he’ll be overvalued come draft day but there’s no way to dismiss his raw talent.  He’ll be thrown in with the rookies as he compares best to them.

I like Jerry Hairston Jr (OF / SS) to be a solid source of steals for your middle infield, assuming he can hold off newly arrived masher Johnny Gomes (OF). If Gomes can get himself 350 AB, he seems to hit 20HR.  If he can land a full time gig, expect those numbers to go up in the Great American Bandbox. Striking out 30% of the time isn’t optimal, but if the HR come with it — The Reds will take it.

The whole Reds’ team should play well, with Encarnacion putting up a few more dollars than he’s worth along with Brandon Phillips.  There’s no reason to not take a Red this year.

Colorado Rockies

You’ve gotta take anyone with talent pretty serious in Colorado.

Ian Stewart (2b? / 3b?) has entered the hype machine and as of January, Garrett Atkins is in LF?? Stewart’s not a sleeper, but he should produce and strike out given playing time.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF) the 243 tooled player acquired in the Holliday deal should rake given the chance.  I have him in my top 5 sleepers.  The man swings at everything, in the zone or outside of it and he strikes out too damn much but whatever.

Sometimes swinging at everything works — oh wait, you have to make contact when you swing at everything? Shit.  Gonzalez is still in my top 5.

Kansas City Royals

Mark Teahen (OF / 2B) is a solid player, and a half decent corner outfielder.  He is not a Second Basemen, but if the Royals switch him to second base as the rumours indicate — he may well be useful. Optimally, Teahan would gain second base eligibility and then return to the outfield but we’ll see. Teahan had a down year last year, and he’s still striking out at a 23% clip — so buyer beware.

Big Fat Billy Butler (1B / DH) and Kila Ka’Ailhue (1B / DH) along with Mike Jacobs (1B) should all see time.  Butler was everyones favourite sleeper last year, and Jacobs can just straight up mash. 25 to 30 homers seems about right for Jacobs, considering all things — but you’ll lose out on the counting stats. Ka’Ailhue should be interesting — i’m not sure if he’s a sleeper at this point or not, but boy can he hit.

Ka’Ailhue would have been a huge addition to any team if not for the Mike Jacobs trade, and maybe he’ll still contribute to a lesser extent. Maybe the youngster can sit down with Jacobs and explain to him why it’s beneficial to Walk almost as much, if not more, than you strike out.  Everything is there except playing time.

Alberto Collaspo (2B) just as a side note, i really like Alberto Collapso and whenever playing Baseball Mogul 2007? I made sure to add him to my team — he always got good around 2009.  Computers rule!

Detroit Tigers

Nothing seems to pop out about the Tigers. Maybe Gerald Laird (C) away from Texas? No thanks. Nice line-up though.

Minnesota Twins

Alexi Casilla (2B) isn’t a sleeper but should put up solid stats. If people start snoozing on Delmon Young (OF), this might be the year.  I’d be more than willing to take a risk on Young, banking that he finally put stuff together in his head.  Young’s got all the talent in the world but like so many of these uber-talented top-prospects, maybe his work ethic isn’t quite there.  I’m not going to predict 20 HR for Young, but you should know incredibly early in the season whether or not he’s going to continue grounding balls harmlessly into the outfield.

Nick Puntu (UTIL / Everywhere) should also contribute.

Chicago White Sox

Should be interesting.  Josh Fields (3B) can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown he can hit, yet. If Jerry Owens (OF) takes the CF job he should be a huge source of steals and more than likely Runs — if he can get on base at a decent clip.

I’m a big fan of super utility man Wilson Betemit (1B/3B/14G @ SS) but whether or not he gets playing time is a different story. His strike out rate is an ugly 25%, but I’d still give him a chance.

New York Yankees

Welcome to the hype-machine. Robinson Cano (2B) will bounce back but the only real sleeper here is Nick Swisher (1B / OF), who could well be dealt.

Swisher hit .219 last year, which is awful. Swisher generally doesn’t hit that well, and expecting more than .260 is goofy but boy does he walk. Expect a nice little return to the .375 range for Swishers OBP, and he’ll regain his .840 OPS form.

Swisher was apparently one of the most unlucky players in 2008, and many are predicting a rebound.

Very rarely do you see a players LD rate go up, while his BABIP dips 50 pts. If Swisher can find a way to get full time playing time, he’s a top 5 sleeper. I just don’t know how he does that in a crowded Yankees outfield — mind you, it’s a crowded AGING Yankees outfield.

Khalil Greene

Fantasy Baseball Shortstop (SS) Rankings for 2009

The Fantasy Shortstop Position for the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season is deep enough.  There’s some solid value, and its incredibly top heavy — so you’ll pretty much get what you pay for.

If you’re lucky enough to get Hanley Ramirez, congrats.  Otherwise, it might be best to load up elsewhere and take a few high risk / reward type guys later in the draft.

As always, everything depends on your draft settings and league size.

1. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Hanley Ramirez	589	33	35	125	67	0.301	0.4	0.54	0.75	0.94

I cannot see a reason to not take Hanley Ramirez first overall. The freedom he gives you by combining HR/SB into a 30 / 30 season is unbelievable.

He’s young as hoot, but still has a .75 BB / K ratio to go with a .400 OBP and .940 OPS. There’s nothing to dislike here, except the team he’s on and ballpark he’s in.

He’ll continue to run so long as he plays on a bad team, and the Marlins lack of success may actually help Ramirez in the fantasy world.

2. Jose Reyes – New York Mets

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jose Reyes	688	16	56	113	68	0.297	0.358	0.475	0.8	0.833

After Reyes, there’s a huge drop off. Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes have proven to be legitimate first round picks who are guaranteed, pretty much, to stay healthy.

They’re both young, uber prospects, that don’t have that much wear on the tires.  Reyes, hopefully will throw 50-60 SB on the board this year.

Scouts have said that Reyes WILL develop power since double-A, single-A? Since a damn long time ago. As I dont enjoy disagreeing with scouts, especially when they start saying “5-tool player” — I’mma go ahead and finally mark Jose Reyes down for 24 HR and 50 Steals this  year.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jimmy Rollins	556	11	47	76	59	0.277	0.349	0.437	1.05	0.786

Rollins is just as good as the previous two, well almost.  He’s older, and more injury prone and had a shit-eating average last year, considering what owners expected (about .290)

The 47 stolen bases kept owners from mass-suicide last year, as Rollins only played in 137 games last year after about 7 years of 154 games, or more!

If Rollins stays healthy, he’s easily a late first round pick.  He’s a good risk/reward type guy in the early rounds, but isn’t the whole point of the early rounds, minimizing your risk?  That’s why you didn’t take Pujols first overall last year, right?

4. Stephen Drew – Arizona Diamondbacks

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Stephen Drew	611	21	3	91	67	0.291	0.333	0.502	0.38	0.836

You’re going to get, what you get.  Improvement will come with some movement in the batting order, along with the slight maturation you’d expect from a overly-hyped Drew brother.

You’re going to know pretty quickly what you’ve gotten with Stephen Drew.  Is he going to regress to his rookie-average of about .250? Or will Stephen Drew keep on, keeping on — rolling on with at least a .285 average.

No one will doubt that Drew’s got talent, but he’s got to keep his K rate below 20%

5. Johnny Peralta – Cleveland Indians

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jhonny Peralta	605	23	3	104	89	0.276	0.331	0.473	0.38	0.804

It looks like Peralta is a surefire bet for 20HR this season, after years of potential without results. Peralta finally cut down on his strike-out rate, which lead to an across the board improvement.  After years of a 25% rate of strike-outs, Peralta lowered it to a *reasonable* 20 percent.

2006 is starting to look like an aberration at this point rather than your regular Jhonny Peralta, which is a good deal for Peralta owners in dynasty leagues.

Cleveland should be interesting, to say the least, this year.  While I’m not certain as to whether or not Peralta will score 100+ runs again this year, he should do fine.  90 Runs and 90 RBI seems likely, if Peralta continues to bat in the top half of the line-up.

His strike-out rate will limit him to either the third, fifth, or sixth spot in the line-up — I’d imagine.  Peralta provides a good deal of value in the second tier of fantasy shortstops, and if you’re going to grab your stolen bases elsewhere — Peralta is a damn good deal, right here.

6. Rafael Furcal – Los Angeles Dodgers

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Rafael Furcal	143	5	8	34	16	0.357	0.439	0.573	1.18	1.012

Per Plate Appearance, Rafael Furcal had probably the best fantasy season out of all of the shortstops.  Unfortunately, Furcal only managed 143 AB to start and end the 2008 season.

I suppose this would be another referendum on whether or not you think Furcal will get to 140 Games played.  If Furcal plays, he’s going to put up super-shortstop numbers, and probably compete with the best in the business.

Thirty-Five Stolen Bases to go with 20 Home Runs isn’t out of the question, as Furcal is a marvelous talent.  In Los Angeles, particularly if Manny Ramirez is signed, Furcal will put up great Run totals, which is generally required from your MI.

Furcal is a great  boom/bust prospect to combine with a safety-pick later in the draft.  You can live with someone like Nick Punto for 250 AB, if you get 400 AB from Furcal.

7. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Troy Tulowitzki	377	8	1	48	46	0.263	0.332	0.401	0.68	0.732

Tulo was probably the most dissappointing fantasy draft-pick of all, last year.  He eventually put everything together around the end of the season and started putting up at least half decent numbers.

As with all of the younger shortstops, Tulowitzki is going to have some serious ups and downs.  Unlike the other shortstops though, Troy Tulowitzki’s glove will keep him in the line-up through slumps.  This is both good and bad: He’ll have a chance to fight through the slumps, but he’ll also put up some awful numbers and possibly kill your batting average, if the slump goes on for too long.

8. J.J. Hardy – Milwaukee Brewers

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
J.J. Hardy	569	24	2	78	74	0.283	0.343	0.478	0.53	0.821

Hot. Cold. Hot. Cold. I dont have much to say about J.J. Hardy other than the fact his SLG percentage should be in the high 400’s which is nice for your shortstop, but he wont steal bases.

You can pretty much assume that Hardy is going to put up 25 homers to go with a respectable .275 BA.  You could do a lot worse than Hardy.  His R / RBI numbers should stay in the same ball-park as last year, but that Brewers line-up has the potential for a huge increase in production if Fielder gets going and Weeks matures.

Hardy’s a pretty safe pick, with a bit of upside.  Owning him will definitely require some patience though — Just make sure to never click the “Stats for this Month” button when Hardy is slumping.

9. Derek Jeter – New York Yankees

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Derek Jeter	596	11	11	88	69	0.3	0.363	0.408	0.61	0.771

Jeter was once massively overrated, and now he’s underrated.  Its hard to value Jeter properly as he doesn’t do anything particularly well.  There are roughly three million players that can put up 10 SB to go with 10 HR, so he’s really not all that impressive.

A couple years ago, Jeter decided to put up 34 SB to go with a .343 average and 14  homers which was absolutely top-tier but he’s been declining since.

Normally you don’t refer to a players potential when he’s 34 years old, but that’s exactly what you get with Jeter. If you’re playing with guys who know their shit, Jeter has some serious value, as they probably despise him for being overrated for so long.

Anyways, Jeter has the potential to go for 15HR and 20+ SB, and the Run and RBI totals are always going to be there along with a guaranteed .300+ average.

Snag Jeter if he falls too far, as he’s probably in for a redemption year.

10. Michael Young – Texas Rangers

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Michael Young	645	12	10	102	82	0.284	0.339	0.402	0.5	0.741

I really see Jeter and Michael Young putting up identical numbers.  You should expect round ’bout 15 Home Runs, 10 Stolen Bases, a great batting average, and great run and rbi totals.

Young’s solid, and I’m sure that he’ll regain his .300+ batting average in 2009.  2008 was okay, but I’d expect 2009 to be a bit better than *okay*

There are a few indicators that he may be in for a steep decline, however. His Line Drive rate dropped drastically from 27 percent to 22 percent.  He started striking out more, notching his second 16% K rate after averaging about 13% during his prime years.  He just seems to be forcing it, and whether or not he played through a minor injury last year, or has just noticed his skills diminishing is up in the air.

10.5 Elvis Andrus – Texas Rangers

I featured Andrus here, in a Welcome to the Hype Machine post.  Andrus should steal plenty of bases and not kill you in the other categories.  His lack of natural power, really sits well in this spot as no one can really bang the bombs at this point.

11. Miguel Tejada – Houston Astros

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Miguel Tejada	632	13	7	92	66	0.283	0.314	0.415	0.33	0.729

Getting old, too old: 15 HR, 5 SB, 90 R, 75 RBI, .280 average.  He’s still very much roster-able, but he’s not going to start regaining his early 2000’s form where he was knocking out 30 HR each and every year.

12. Orlando Cabrera – Free Agent

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Orlando Cabrera	661	8	19	93	57	0.281	0.334	0.371	0.79	0.705

The Skills are still there, I just dont know where he’ll land.  He’s apparently a giant ass-hat, but he’ll do whatever’s asked of him, and he’s very much more concerned with his personal stat-line than team success — which is exactly what you want from your fantasy short-stop.

Great Value at this spot.

13. Yunel Escobar – Atlanta Braves

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Yunel Escobar	514	10	2	71	60	0.288	0.366	0.401	0.95	0.766

Escobar is my type of player, and with the Braves new pitching staff — he should help them contend for the NL East.

Yunel Escobar walks just about as much as he strikes out, and he gets on-base. Escobar’s splits when it comes to LD, FB, GB were quite interesting.  His LD rate should be floating around 20 percent, but last year he hiked his GB rate to a silly 59 percent which resulted in a 17 percent LD rate.

His fangraphs page is here, and it’s interesting to look at these stats because he’s definitely not going to put up the same numbers as last year.  He’s either going down a chunk, or up a chunk — I just have no clue how to interpret these numbers.

14. Khalil Greene – St. Louis Cardinals

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Khalil Greene	389	10	5	30	35	0.213	0.26	0.339	0.22	0.599

I’m going to hell for this, but Khalil Greene has a huge bounce back year. He’ll hit 25 home runs, and have quite possibly the longest Ball-Park-Effect induced orgasm in the history of man.

And, yes there’s more, Khalil Greene will hit .260.

And, cure cancer.

And, steal 12 bases.

15. Ryan Theriot- Chicago Cubs

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Theriot	580	1	22	85	38	0.307	0.387	0.359	1.26	0.745

Plays for the Cubs and gets on base.

When on base, will steal between 20-30 times.

That is all you really need to know.  Theriot could be a steal this year, especially if he grows his mullet out a smidgen more.

16. Christian Guzman – Washington Nationals

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Cristian Guzman	579	9	6	77	55	0.316	0.345	0.44	0.4	0.786

While playing fantasy baseball last year in a fairly shallow league, Christian Guzman’s name just kept popping up.  I’m not sure how the hell Guzman put up that kind of batting average even though his 50 game performance of 2007 showed he had it in him.

But, C’mon — it’s Christian Guzman we’re talking about here. The guy who steals 30 bases and hits .250, if you’re lucky.

If only all of the young, speedy, shortstops aged like this.  Once your legs are too old to steal 30 bases, you go and start hitting .320.

Stupid Christian Guzman. Washington has a decent enough offense to knock in Guzman 85 times in 2009 and if Guzman manages to get more than 140 games under his belt, he could put up some stellar numbers.

17. Edgar Renteria – San Francisco Giants

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Edgar Renteria	503	10	6	69	55	0.27	0.317	0.382	0.58	0.699

Renteria is useful enough, and on a real bad San Fran team, he should start running a bit more.  At this point in the short-stop rankings, value comes down to a solid contribution in one or two categories while not sinking the ship in the rest of the categories.

In a PERFECT world, Renteria puts up 75 Runs, 70 RBI, bops 14 home runs, steals 18 bases, and hits .280.

18. Jerry Hairston Jr. – Cincinnati Reds

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jerry Hairston	261	6	15	47	36	0.326	0.384	0.487	0.64	0.871

Hairston put up great numbers in limited action last year, and it looks like he has the inside gig on the starting left-field job.

Of course, Hairston Jr. isn’t going to put up an .870!!! OPS again this year, that’s just ridiculous for a light hitting journey-man  second baseman.

BUT! he’ll steal some bases on a fairly young Cinci team, and all the rest of the stats are double double extra bonus bonus!

19. Mike Aviles – Kansas City Royals

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mike Aviles	419	10	8	68	51	0.325	0.354	0.48	0.31	0.833

I’m not particularly high on Aviles, as he came out of absolute obscurity to put up great triple-A numbers in 2008. Then, as is always the case, those numbers predicted future major league success perfectly and Aviles is now a future HOFer.

Anyways, something just doesn’t add up for me, and 400 major league at-bats isn’t nowhere near enough AB to deduce a players true talent level.  If I recall correctly, 600 AB is when the numbers start becoming meaningful.

20. Jed Lowrie – Boston Red Sox

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jed Lowrie	260	2	1	34	46	0.258	0.339	0.4	0.51	0.739

Uh, he’s in the Red Sox line-up and even if he bats 8th or 9th, he’ll be a useful source of Runs and RBI. Sure Lowrie has some potential, but not enough to start for most fantasy teams.

I’m sure someone in your league, who adores the Red Sox, will draft him though.  Pedroia showed last year that you don’t have to be the most talented player to succeed in that line-up, you just have to get on base.  If Lowrie can raise his OBP to .350, and his average to .270 — he’ll be very serviceable.

21. Marco Scutaro – Toronto Blue Jays

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Marco Scutaro	517	7	7	76	60	0.267	0.341	0.356	0.88	0.697

As much as I hate J.P. Ricciardi, picking up Scutaro was probably one of his better moves.  Scutaro can be plugged in just about anywhere and I was more than surprised to see him put up 75 Runs in the powerless Toronto Blue Jays line-up.

If Aaron Hill ever gets over his concussion, Scutaro is going to lose some at-bats to the completely useless John McDonald.  I wonder how deep your league would have to be to roster John McDonald — someone get back to me on this.

22. Jason Bartlett – Tampa Bay Rays

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jason Bartlett	454	1	20	48	37	0.286	0.329	0.361	0.32	0.69

Barlett isn’t anything special in the fantasy world, but he was a huge part of the Tampa Bay Rays run to the world series. I still like the Garza/Bartlett trade for both sides, and Bartlett will continue to produce.

The Steals are nice and make him roster-able.  Getting 20 – 30 Steals late in a draft on the cheap is generally a good idea: A better idea than drafting a minor leaguer with heaps of potential, in most cases.

23. Nick Punto – Minnesota Twins

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Punto	338	2	15	43	28	0.284	0.344	0.382	0.56	0.726

I like utility men quite a bit. Scutaro in Toronto and Ryan Freel in Baltimore now, are always more useful on the field than in the fantasy world.  Anyways, Punto has the ability to steal 25 bases and hit .285-.290 if he plays every day.

The Twins did well resigning him after letting him go, and i’m surprised that no one else expressed serious interest.  Keep Punto on your radar as he’ll prove to be useful throughout the season.

The problem with utility men is keeping track of when they’re playing and when they’re sitting on their buts, and nothing is worse than wasting a game on someone who’s not playing.

24. Clint Barmes- Colorado Rockies

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Clint Barmes	393	11	13	47	44	0.29	0.322	0.468	0.25	0.79

Well, he plays in Coors but he doesn’t particularly have a choke hold on the position.  If he plays, he plays and he should put up half decent numbers.  Barmes is either batting atop the Rockies line-up or right before the pitcher, so keep an eye on how this plays out.  He may be a nice late round pick-up, for the first chunk of the season at least until Stewart steals the second base job.

The Rest of The Rest, Complete With A Couple Guys To Keep An Eye On.

Yuniesky Betancourt - doesn’t contribute particularly well, nor does he steal bases.  His average will probably flutter in the wind, and land somewhere around .275.  He wont hurt you too bad, but he definitely wont help you.

Wilson Betemit – I like Wilson Betemit, and I’d imagine he’d find himself a spot somewhere in that White Sox day-to-day lineup.  Whether Fields fails, or Ramirez goes to second and Wilson plays short — he should get a shot.  If he does, he’s got the potential to put up some half decent numbers.

Bobby Crosby – Un-Ownable.  Once a top tier prospect, now he’s the constant producer of an awful BA. You never know though, sometimes these prospects shit the bed for years and then wake up and realize that they should be hitting 25 HR, and do so.

Brendan Harris – Not sure where he plays, I’m figuring on third with Punto at SS, but who knows.  He’s decent enough but doesn’t have Punto’s speed.  Come to think of it, Punto would probably be better served playing third with Harris at short.  Who knows.

The Anaheim Angeles of Los Angeles, Huh? Aybar and Izturis - 25 Steals. A .260 average. Enjoy you, Enjoy.

Jeff Keppinger – Uhh, he’s got to get a shit-tonne of Plate Appearances to have any value, at all. Those Walks add 50 pts in OBP.

Ben Zobrist – I’m not certain whats up with the OF situation in Tampa.  Zobrist should get in at least 120 games at one position or another.  Could be worth a look.

Emmanueal Burriss - might get some playing time at second, could be worth a long look.

Brandon Wood – The next Bobby Crosby?  Wood’s got a load of power, but just about everything else needs work.  I dont see how the Angels could actually play a game with him at short, but when Wood does put it together, he should be a bopper.

And to think just a couple years ago, I liked Brandon Wood more than Stephen Drew.

Ryan Freel - Set him free.