Kevin Millwood

Sacks Juiced: May 24th, The Weekend.

Ryan Doumit of the Pirates went deep and continues to torture me for giving up on him.  Everything about Doumit’s early career pointed towards the loss of catcher eligibility and I cut bait — Needless to say, Doumit’s played 37 games at Catcher in 2010 after 71 and 106 in the previous two years.  In 2010, Doumit’s struck down 3 of 37 potential stolen bases.  I love where Doumit’s at when it comes to plate discipline, though:  The walk rate’s up to almost 10%, the O-Swing’s down to 2006-7 levels.  ZiPS has him at 13HR on the season, but he’s just a hotstreak away from a 20HR season.

Trevor Crowe continues to do an admirable job playing CF for the Tribe — 2 H, 2R and a SB.

Homer Bailey continues to play the roll of drunk flirty girl at a frat party that doesn’t put out: Bailey left in the 3rd with shoulder tightness.  Apparently, it’s not overly serious.

Kerry Wood finally got a save.  Good news.  As long as the heat’s there, and the health is sorta-kinda there, I’m buying.

Scott Rolen hit another homer (that’s 10!) and he finally appears to be healthy.  The evolution of Scott Rolen is just amazing –  He regularly struck out 20% of the time with the Phils and Cards before gradually cutting down on the strike-outs. Normally we’d celebrate this, but Rolen’s ISO took a nose dive.  In 2010, Rolen’s back to striking out 18% of the time and the ISO is back above .200 at .294!  Rolen’s HR/FB ratio is at 20% after a career of 11.1%; so regression is imminent but he should be able to outperform the projections provided he stays healthy.

Even on a bad Cleveland team, Shin-Soo Choo has cemented his spot as a top-50 fantasy player with a couple runs on three hits.

In Bizzaro world, Tim Wakefield goes 8IP allowing 0 ER and Roy Halladay goes 5.2 allowing 6ER.

Jacoby Ellsbury is back!  Keep an eye on his SB/CS.  Quite frankly, I’d imagine busted up ribs aren’t fans of headfirst slides.

Drew Storen pitched 1.2 innings and Matt Capps blew a save.  Storen’s averaged 94.3MPH on his fastball, thus far.

Kevin Millwood had another Kevin Millwood start:  6 IP, 3ER, 8K.  The Ks are intriguing and I even bet a pretty penny on Millwood yesterday but he’s still Kevin Millwood.  Same goes for Corey Patterson, he’s still Corey Patterson — 1 SB yesterday.

The White Sox got stomped by the Marlins:  Guillen, I just sunk your battleship. Ozzie Guillen arguably has the worst line-up management skills in the league. Basically every free swinger in the Marlins line-up hit a DINGER!  Cantu, Uggla, Ross — check, check, check.  Surprise alert:  Cameron Maybin had one AB and struck out.  You can have all the tools in the world but in the end, the game of baseball is still about hitting a baseball.

Josh Johnson went 6IP without allowing a run but he failed to strike out a White Sox batter.

Carlos Silva got another win.  Seriously?  He’s 6-and-0.  His 5.2K per 9 is the best of his career.

Speaking of wins, David Price got his 7th on the year in an outing where he only went 5 innings and gave up 5ER.  Price is still one of my favourites going forward but he was due for a couple flyballs leaving the yard.  I can’t make this clear enough;  David Price isn’t a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher.  The BABIP and BB% are quite worrisome and should result in more ER.  This may be the perfect sell high time on Price if you don’t think he’ll clean it up.

Kevin Gregg’s starting to implode:  4 ER in the past 1.1 IP.  You’ve got to hold onto him at this point because there’s no way in hell you’re getting any value out of him in a trade.

John Axford got the save for the Brewers and throws very hard (mid-to-high 90s) but walks too many and allowed 3 Hits last night.  While Axford struck out 3 in the 9th, it wasn’t pretty.

In case you forgot that I was a Canadian, Axford hails from my hometown (Simcoe, ON) and Jesse Crain, who pitched for the Twins, was born in my current city (Toronto, ON) — This is a pretty big deal.

Billy Butler went 4-for-5 with a single RBI — he’s hitting .346 on the season.  The BABIP is about 25pts too high but he’s absolutely punishing the ball.  Butler sure can hit the fastball.

Troy Tulowitzki hit another homer — that’s 3 in the past 4 games.  I’m confident in saying that Tulowitzki is no longer missing the sweet spot.

Ian Stewart had a good game with a couple hits and 3 RBI and has settled into the 25% K-Rate.  With Stewart, the doubles have been there but the homers haven’t quite kicked in.  I’m not sure if we’re dealing with a new approach but Stewart’s hitting 27% (up 12%) LD and and only 36% FB (down 9%).  I’m sure owners want the DINGERS! but this ratio is nothing to frown upon.

That’s it for now — I’m missing LAA/STL, SF/OAK, TOR/ARI, SD/SEA, DET/LAD, and NYY/NYM.  They’ll get taken care off shortly, as there aren’t many games on tonight.

Happy Victoria Day.

Kevin Millwood

Sacks Juiced: May 18th

Homer Bailey went seven strong innings against the Brewers, giving up 4H, 2BB and a couple ER.  Bailey settled down well after giving up both earned runs in the first.  He relied heavily on his fastball (71%) but his change-up looked better than it had in a couple starts.

Jay Bruce stole a base and collected a couple hits off lefty, Manny Parra.  Bruce has slowly been improving his platoon splits but it’s still quite sensible to sit him against top-tier lefties.  Jay Bruce is now hitting .280 on the year after a .223 ’08 campaign.  Bruce may be striking out more in 2010 but his swing-rate and swinging strikes are both down.  More importantly, Bruce has upped his walk-rate by swinging less outside of the zone.  You get the feeling that a break-out month is on the horizon for Jay Bruce.

Casey McGehee continued to absolutely punish the baseball with 3 hits on Tuesday.  After a 2009 season where McGehee owned the fastball, he’s been doing most of his damage this year on off-speed stuff.  McGehee’s BABIP isn’t spectacularly high — it’s actually the same .330 it was last year – but with only 10% of his hits as line-drives, there’s some concern.

The Toronto Blue Jays continued to light up mistake prone pitches against the Twins and Carl Pavano.  Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion all went yard.  Blue Jays not named Aaron Hill or Adam Lind will eventually regress but I’m not going to be the one to predict it.  With Hill’s homer and Adam Lind’s 2-hit game, their batting averages now sit at .175 and .231, respectively.  Adam Lind will have trouble duplicating his 2009 break-out season without cutting his Ks down to 2009 levels:  currently, he’s at 29% versus 19% in 2009.

Shaun Marcum continues to dominate with control after missing all of 2009 but the ERA is a bit lucky.  Expecting something closer to 2008′s 3.40ERA rather than 2010′s current 2.61 ERA seems to make sense.  Marcum’s ability to move the fastball and place the change-up wherever he damn-well pleases is extraordinary.

Rick Porcello’s sinker just isn’t sinking which is a problem when your value’s tied up in ERA and WHIP. At this point, I’m having major issues seeing Porcello’s upside, especially if he continues to walk almost as many batters as he’s striking out. Rick Porcello walked another 3 batters last night in a very mediocre performance (7IP, 4ER, 8H, 3BB, 2K) against the White Sox.

With 2 Hits and a steal, Brennan Boesch is now hitting .387 on the strength of a .426 BABIP.  The rook’s slugging percentage sits at a darling .680 but this can only last so long with a BB-Rate of 3% and a 51% O-Swing.

Andruw Jones went 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts last night; Can you believe Jones has 7 SB on the year?

Thankfully for White Sox fans, Bobby Jenks pitched a pretty clean 9th inning:  1H, 0BB and 2 Ks.  Sergio Santos walked a couple in one inning’s work to raise his WHIP to 1.08.  Hitters are only hitting .165 against Santos and his very live fastball (AVG Speed: 95.6mph).

Florida spanked Arizona eight to nil on Tuesday.  Justin Upton was the only Diamondback position player to record a hit — which he bundled with another 2 SO, lovely.

Cameron Maybin hit in the 2-hole and recorded a homer, a walk and a strike-out.  The kid’s still hitting just .242 (on a .341 BABIP) and striking out 32.6% of the time.

David Price pitched another solid game for his sixth win of the year.  I’d really like to see Price return to the BB numbers of 2008 (2.57) before I fully endorse him as elite, though.  While Price is getting a bit lucky on balls in play, he’s still pitching incredibly well with a 3.06 FIP and a True ERA (tERA) of 2.91.

Ben Zobrist is still without a homer, but i’d hardly call him a major disappointment after his 7th steal of the year.  His .340 BABIP is almost negated by a 5% increase in line-drives over last year.  The major concerns that I have with Zobrist is his huge jump in O-Swing (’09: 19%, 10: 27%) and decline in BB-Rate (’09: 15%, ’10: 10%).

The Royals and Orioles game was a thriller, just ask the reported 9,715 fans that showed up at Camden to take in the baseball super-event.  Kevin Millwood, a man that I’ll never roster, continued his hot streak going 8 strong innings, striking out seven without a walk.  Millwood’s ERA is now 3.65 on the year and he’s striking out more than 7 batters per 9.

Jose Guillen had two more hits and is now batting .261 with 8HR.  Guillen has quietly gone about matching his 2009 power numbers in about half the games.  He’s already accumulated one more double, one fewer homer, seven fewer runs, and 15 fewer RBI in 41 fewer games.

Zack Greinke got yet another no-decision, despite 7IP, 2ER, 6K and 1BB.  That’s one whole win on the entire year, folks.  If there’s anyway that you can acquire Greinke, I’d do it.  He’ll still end up with at least 10-12 wins on the year.

I’m a bit sensitive about Josh Beckett as the former Texas Highschooler was one of my first ever keeper picks.  In 4.2IP, Beckett gave up another 3ER — That’s good for a season ERA on the wrong side of 7.

C.C. Sabathia allowed a single run in seven solid innings but I’m somewhat concerned about the strike-out and walk totals.  C.C. has a habit of starting out poorly but he’s barely striking out six batters per nine and walking almost 3-per-9.  He should eventually round back into form before that .239 BABIP catches up to him.

Roy Halladay’s complete game, two ER, six K, performance was out-dueled by Zack Duke et. al.  Evan Meek pitched another solid inning in relief, striking out one and walking another.  On the season, Meek has a ERA of 0.69 and has managed to strike-out a batter per inning while only walking 2.42-per-9.  Evan Meek’s added a couple of MPH across the board and his average fastball hitting 95mph is starting to look closer-worthy.  All the plate discipline indicators show that hitters are having trouble with his stuff; it’s just a matter of sustaining the BB-Rate, which he’s lopped in half since 2009.

Ike Davis hit a dinger, his first in a couple weeks.  While the strike-outs are worrisome, he’s walking almost 16% of the time.  There will inconsistency but Davis has looked pretty good thus far:  .275 AVG /.393 OBP/ .466 SLG.

Kris Medlen continued to prove his case with 6.1 innings of 4 Hit ball.  Medlen allowed a couple homers while striking out six and walking a couple.

I have absolutely no fucking clue how Carlos Silva continues to pitch this well.

Five walks in just over five innings got Jhoulys Chacin into trouble.  He still managed to strike-out six batters and his season ERA is now at 3.12.  If Chacin can keep his K:BB on the right side of two, he’ll have success going forward.  Expect the normal bumps and bruises, though.

Carlos Zambrano pitched a perfect ninth: two strike-outs and no walks!  The Cubs want him and his gigantic salary back in the rotation, which at least gives Big-Z owners hope.

Tyler Colvin took advantage of the playing time, knocking in a run and scoring a couple on three hits.  I’m not sure how the Cubbies can make this work but this kid needs to see some consistent at-bats.

Carlos Gonzalez had two hits for the Rockies but there is something dirty about his 2.7% BB-Rate hitting lead-off.

Ian Kinsler hit his first dinger of the year to help Texas beat the Angels.  On the season, Vladdy Guerrero now has eight homers after another one last night.  The question is not if Guerrero will come up with a bum hamstring but when.

Neftali Feliz is rounding back into form, pitching a scoreless ninth with two K’s.

At what point do the Angels just give up on Brandon Wood? Another hitless game for Wood.

Felipe Lopez lead off for the Cardinals last night.  You know the deal with Lopez, he’ll score runs and steal bases but it won’t be pretty.  I’ve got a feeling that Lopez might return to his 20 SB days after stealing just 14 over the course of the previous two years.

Six hits over two games was all it took Ian Desmond to raise his batting average from .246 to .279 — Wonky, eh?    This is a guy that flashed 30SB potential throughout the minors but it’s yet to translate.  In 2009, across two levels and a cup of coffee (AA-AAA-MLB,) Desmond stole 22 Bases.

Felix Hernandez got hit pretty hard (11H, 2BB) without it translating into ER (3).  Ben Sheets came back down to earth as he walked 4 more batters en route to 4ER.

Kurt Suzuki had 3 hits to raise his batting average from .239 to .264.  He’s still a viable option at catcher.

The story of the extra-innings game between the Padres and the Giants was Mat Latos.  Neither Latos nor the Padres got the win thanks in part to Mike Adams’ blown save in the eighth.  Mat Latos’ WHIP now sits just below 1.00 in part because he’s given up just 1 walk in his previous three starts.  Definitely someone worth locking your sights on.

Bud Norris exploded yet again against the Dodgers.  With a couple of hits and a homer, Carlos Lee may finally be starting to heat up.

Kevin Millwood

Gettin’ Lucky, An Article About Pitching, Not Josh Hamilton.

The Deadspin photos of Josh Hamilton are pretty killer, and the shot-glass in the fly trick is A-PLUS in my book but this is an article about pitching.

Who’s Getting Lucky?

Matt Cain (2.44 ERA & 3.92 FIP) — Cain loves to party and he’s got the numbers to show it.  Cain comes in with a .260 BABIP and a ridiculous 0.87 LOB%.

J.A. Happ (2.74 ERA & 4.01 FIP) — For some reason the Blue Jays wanted this Pitching STUD! Number 3 starter in the Roy Halladay deal.  Much like Cain, J.A. Happ’s leaving an insane amount of runners on base (0.87 LOB%.)  Pitching in Philly, Happ and his 0.251 BABIP is going to kill you very, very, very, soon.

Edwin Jackson (2.62 ERA & 3.85 FIP) — There’s no debating Jackson has put it together, but he’s had a good chunk of luck, too.  I started out the season claiming that the Rays’ pwned the Tigers by nabbing Matt Joyce, but it appears as though I may have been wrong.  Jackson’s another guy with a BABIP under .260 and a LOB% of over 80%.  Unlike the previous two however, Edwin Jackson’s genuinely improved.  The key to Jackson has always been control, and a 2.86 BB/9 is incredibly solid.

Kevin Millwood should not have an ERA below 4.00 ever, and hopefully he’s not owned in your league.  Jarrod Washburn is indeed the bane of my existence.

Wandy Rodriguez (2.51 ERA & 3.65 FIP) — I’m a proud owner of Wandy, and I love trotting him out there, but there’s no point in acquiring him now.  Wandy’s left-on-base percentage is a pretty hefty 83%, while he’s BABIP is a solid .290 — be wary.  I love Wandy’s strike-out rate, but get the “fading fast feeling” when it comes to the final 2 or 3 weeks of the season.

Chris Carpenter (2.26 ERA & 2.99 FIP) — I missed out on the Carpenter boat, mainly because I’m uber-injury-paranoid, but so it goes. Carpenter’s making it work with 6.33 K/9 and a beautiful 4.58 K/BB rate.  Unfortunately, Carpenter’s sub-1.00 WHIP probably won’t last as his BABIP numbers start to trend towards at least .285ish, rather than his current .264 BABIP. Carpenter’s leaving ‘em on base with the best of ‘em at an 81% clip.  I was wrong on Carpenter, but at this point I’d be acquiring him as a 1.20-WHIP, 3.00 ERA guy.

Clayton Kershaw (2.73 ERA, 3.21 FIP) — I’m a Kershaw guy, but his current 5BB/9 is worrisome with his current .261 BABIP and 78% LOB.  Most of Kershaw’s statistics are maintainable, but I definitely wouldn’t be acquiring him at his current price.

Ricky Romero (3.66 ERA, 4.23 FIP) — There’s a lot of talk up ‘ere in Canada about Romero winning rookie of the year, but he’s still fairly bland in fantasy circles — and for good reason.  Romero’s probably a 4.00 ERA – 4.25 ERA pitcher the rest of the way home, and with the departure of Alex Rios the outfield defense isn’t getting any prettier.  A few more runs are probably going to start crossing the plate, and Romero’s 80% LOB will suffer.

A few other guys that I feel the need to mention,

Adam Wainwright could be pushing the envelope and a neat little quarter o’ run increase the rest of the way home in his ERA should probably be expected.  The same goes for Jered Weaver — expect a little bump, and if you can get someone to buy him dollar-for-dollar, I’d pull the trigger.

Last, but not least, Matt Garza’s (3.63 ERA, 4.23 FIP) got some regressing to do with his current .263 BABIP and 78% LOB. I think Garza has it in ‘em the rest of the way home though, so if you’re trying to deal with a stat nerd — I’d be targeting Garza and bringing up his “luck.”

Hopefully this quick piece serves useful to someone.  If you haven’t jumped on the fangraphs.com train, please do so –  all the statistics are exportable into Excel or Open Office and easily sortable.  Basically, all you’ve gotta do is pull a formula out of your ass, or a text book, and let Excel do the work.