When it comes to first basemen, I’m only using their *current* listed position. I made one exception in Chris Carter. There’s a handful of players that didn’t make the cut because they weren’t in the Yahoo! player pool or were more valuable at another position.

1. Albert Pujols — Age 31 — I don’t have him here by much, but Miggy’s DUI made me take back my initial prediction.

2. Miguel Cabrera — Age 28 — Probably the best long-term keeper out there right now.

3. Joey Votto — Age 27 — MVP. From Toronto. Win/WIN! The other guys on this list have just done it for a bit longer.

4. Adrian Gonzalez — Age 29 — Welcome to Boston. Should have at least 5 productive years.

5. Prince Fielder — Age 27 – I think Fielder has the ability to be number one on this list.

6. Billy Butler — Age 25 – Love Billy Butler. Love Love. Kansas City has all the talent in the world and I think he’ll start to rack up some counting stats.

7. Ryan Howard — Age 31 – He didn’t enter the show until later, and I figure he’ll have at least three more absolutely dominant seasons. The power will remain legit for a while.

8. Mark Teixiera — Age 31 — He should look much more like Career-Teixiera than 2010-Teixiera.

9. Justin Morneau — Age 30 — Injuries aren’t concerning me in the long term.

10. Kevin Youkilis — Age 32 -- It’s weird to think that Youkilis is the oldest of the bunch…

11. Ike Davis — Age 24 — I think Davis is better than Freeman. Yup

12. Adam Dunn — Age 31 — Dunn will hit 40 HR, I promise.

13. Kendry Morales — Age 28 — Morales has all sorts of potential, but risk/reward is a bit high for me.

14. Freddie Freeman — Age 21 – I think Freeman is Younger than Davis. I don’t think either of these two picks need explaining.

15. Adam Lind — Age 27 – He Will Bounce Back!

16. Paul Konerko — Age 35 — Well.. I think he’s got two seasons left.

17. Brandon Belt — Age 22 — I am really high on Brandon Belt, but the MiLB track record just isn’t there because he’s that AWESOME. I think of Davis, Freeman and Trumbo that Belt is the best. If I were just ranking on gut-feeling, Belt would be above Morales at 13.

18. Mark Trumbo — Age 25 – Interesting story. Crazy. Crazy. Power.

19. Eric Hosmer — Age 21 – Okay. Here’s the thing. Hosmer is the best first base prospect of the bunch, but he also has the slimmest shot of playing in 2011 (and guh, maybe even 2012). The Royals are weird when it comes to prospects. I don’t even know if they’ll bring Moose up for 2011.

20. Carlos Pena — Age 33 – Oldie, but a goodie. His BA should be better and you’re pretty much guaranteed great power for the next couple years.

21. Matt LaPorta — Age 26 – Upside. I think this is the year he puts it together.

22. Kila Ka’aihue — Age 27 — Unfortunately Kansas City never gave him a fair shake, but 2011 is the year. Don’t be surprised if he jumps up a handful of spots.

23. Gaby Sanchez — Age 27 — Spectacularly average first basemen. I don’t know how you keep him, but he’ll be productive.

24. Adam LaRoche — Age 31 – Maybe this is Mark Trumbo 5 years from now.

25. Mitch Moreland — Age 25 — Under. Rated. 2011 is a break-out.

26. Derrek Lee — Age 35 — Should have a good 2011 as well. Injury and AB are questions…

27. Justin Smoak — Age 24 — Oh how the mighty have fallen. Honestly, Seattle kills me. If the guy were still in Texas, I’d love ‘em.

28. Aubrey Huff — Age 34 – I do not like Aubrey Huff. I have absolutely no clue how he does it.

36. Yonder Alonso — Age 23 — Oh No, You Didn’t.  Originally, I had Alonso ranked 36th because he’s a bit away, but I think I’ll move him up.

29. Chris Carter — Age 25 — Just got sent to AAA and this might be the end. The power is legit, but what about the other skills?

30. James Loney — Age 27 — It took me about five years to admit to myself that James Loney would not develop power. That almost guarantees that he’ll hit 25 for no good reason this year…

31. Brett Wallace — Age 24 – Brett Wallace is James Loney, without the speed, but with the question marks. He’s 5 years younger, but I don’t know how to rank him…

32. Lance Berkman — Age 35 — One, maybe two, seasons. Should be bounce-back, but I don’t know how the guy plays the outfield for too long.

33. Garrett Jones — Age 30 – Pretty, Pretty, Pretty Useful.

34. Michael Morse — Age 29 – More of an outfield bet. There’s some serious competition up in DC for that left-field gig.

35. Luke Scott — Age 32 – Luke Scott also bothers me and if I recall correctly he has gross splits. Definitely a useful player but not a keeper.

37. Dan Johnson — Age 31 — Uneventful. 3B eligible.

38. Daric Barton — Age 25 – Value comes from PA. PA come from spot in order. Useful, but don’t overvalue.

39. Chris Davis — Age 25 — I believe he’ll find a home. Definitely a gamble worth taking.

40. Juan Miranda — Age 28 — Some power. Gotta be pretty deep to keep him though.

41. Todd Helton – I sorta wanted to leave Helton off the list.

42. Lyle Overbay — Age 34 — Not a terrible choice.

43. Brad Hawpe — Age 31 — For some reason, I thought Hawpe was older.  There’s some competition in SD.

44. Lars Anderson — Age 24 — I do not think Lars Anderson is a great prospect.

45. Anthony Rizzo — Age 21 – But he’s closer than Rizzo.

46. Jorge Cantu — Age 29 — Cantu has been around forever as well…

47. Ross Gload — Age 34 – Howard’s back-up and I believe he can still play the field pretty well.

48. Russell Branyan — Age 35 – Dingers.

49. Steven Pearce — Age 27 — Yup.

50. Mike Carp — Age 24 — Here’s an interesting pick. Carp has some power. Seattle is notoriously awful at everything. Seems to be very close to MLB ready.

Excuse me if this is brief, I’ve always had a long-standing mantra when it comes to sports that affected last night:  The Playoffs Rule.  If there’s a playoff game on in any of the four major sports leagues, it takes precedence.  As a Canuck, I probably should be more of a hockey fan but I’m not; it’s baseball and football for me.  With that said, I was pretty excited that the hockey team that plays in a market with winter beat the hockey team that plays in California in an overtime bonanza.  Today, the Canadian team will face the American team at 3:00PM as to not disrupt the 8:20PM Basketball game.

Shin-Soo Choo hit a couple of dingers in the CLE/CIN game.  Choo has a freaky way of maintaining a ridiculously high BABIP, so don’t worry about his .355 BABIP.  The LD% is down but remember that Choo had a .367 and .370 BABIP over the past couple years.  With Choo’s walk-rate up and K-Rate down, he should have absolutely no problem posting a 20-20 season in Cleveland.

Kerry Wood gave up a homer in a non-save situation but also struck out a couple of batters.  Wood’s probably an injury risk and Chris Perez has been solid but at this point, the stuff is there.

Joey Votto stole a couple bases — that’s 6 on the year.  I think Votto’s finally entered the “elite” category of first basemen, but keep an eye on his 50% GB-Rate.

Lefty J.C. Romero retired two batters to get the save for the Phillies against the Red Sox.  Romero relieved Baez, who’d put a man on first and second, in a 4-run game.  Romero got J.D. Drew to ground-out (advancing the runners) before plonking Beltre.  Finally, Romero got David Ortiz to fly out to deep-center.  Romero was more than likely brought in to deal with the lefties and did just that; even if it wasn’t pretty.

Jimmy Rollins was back atop the lineup with Victorino hitting behind  Ibanez.

Tim Hudson shutdown the Pirates.  Hudson has a 2.09ERA and a 3.88K/3.43BB rate — guh.  Obviously, Hudson’s gawdy 66% GB-Rate has been keeping him elite but at some point, the .213 BABIP and 87% LOB-Rate will abandon him.  I don’t see this ending well.

The Orioles are actually starting to hit:  Adam Jones had his first homer since April 24th.

Javier Vazquez got well against the Mets.  Takahashi pitched a very solid game for his first start: 6IP, 5H, 1BB, 0ER, 5K.  Takahashi is now striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP with a 2.91 tERA and a 3.56 xFIP.  Definitely someone to take a look at in deeper leagues (even with a Mets’ bullpen that has WHIPs that resemble ERAs)

Colby Lewis shut down the Cubs even though he walked 3 in 6 IP.  Lewis is striking out a batter per inning and is a solid bet to post a sub-4.00 ERA on the year.  Lewis is going to his Slider quite a bit more than previous years — it’s up to 30% and the Curve’s down to 8% versus last year’s 13% SL/23% CU split.

That’s 12 Saves on the season for Neftali Feliz.  I don’t understand why Texas gave up so soon on the dream of Neftali being a starter but to each his own, I guess.

Brett Myers is now (3-3) on a 15-27 Houston team.  Seven strike-outs in seven innings certainly doesn’t hurt his value.  Myers allowed a single unearned run in the first inning.  Myers is still a grade-A douchebag but his O-Swing is up 5% and his contact-rate is down 5%.  Myers also hasn’t seen his Swinging Strike percentage at 9 in a couple of years.  Myers has been going to his slider more often which has the best downward movement in his career.

Matt Lindstrom picked up his 10th save of the year and has his BB-Rate below 2.  A 3.75 K:BB Matt Lindstrom is a very useful Matt Lindstrom.  He’s left 93% of runners stranded but every other indicator shows that Lindstrom is just better.

Mark Buerhle pitched a great game: 8IP, 3H,  3K.  Buerhle does this from time to time before reminding the world that he’s spectacularly average. Sergio Santos pitched the ninth and struck out a couple batters.  This is me tooting Carlos Quentin’s horn for the third straight day.

Nick Punto was the only Minnesota Twin to not touch home plate and score a run last night.  Nick Blackburn is now 5-and-1.  That’s that for that 15-3 rout.

Jose Guillen hit a couple more DINGERS!  Twenty-two percent of his fly-balls are going for a long ride over the fence.  Unless you’re a baseball purist, there’s absolutely no reason to dislike the hilarity that follows Jose Guillen.

Colby Rasmus tripled for his lone hit of the day.  As a Rasmus owner, I’m absolutely terrified.  Rasmus is striking out 35% of the time and has a .368 BABIP.  Rasmus has a .930 OPS and has been graded AAA by Moody’s, S  & P and Fitch — Obviously, it’s buying time. Banking Sarcasm!

I can’t believe I turned off the Blue Jays / Diamondbacks game last night.  The Diamondbacks (397K) are number one in strike-outs and the Blue Jays (361K) are number 2.  Almost as if these two things were connected, the Blue Jays are number 1 in DINGERS! (72) and the Diamondbacks are number 3 (56 HR).

Here’s the DINGERS! from last night’s game:  Fred Lewis, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, Chris Young.

In six and two-thirds innings, Trevor Cahill struck out four and only walked one.  Walks will be the biggest factor in Cahill’s development.  I love the kid.

Cliff Lee got the win after giving up 7ER?  The weird part is that the Padres didn’t take a single walk, they just aimed and fired en route to 15 hits.

Mike Sweeney hit a couple of DINGERS! but really doesn’t deserve too much attention at this point.

Austin Jackson had two more hits and is still hitting 36% line-drives.

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30′s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30′s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30′s to low-40′s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.

I have this uncontrollable fixation with statistics that some may refer to as obsessive compulsive disorder, but others may deem awesome and totally understandable. My better half thankfully just writes it off as shit she’ll never be able to change.  I check the logs of this site fairly often, and while this site is still in it’s infancy, it pulls in enough search engine traffic to keep me busy.

Today, someone asked google the question: “Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?”

Apparently, you’re directed here for the answer after obvious stops at thebaseballcube.com and crookedpitch.com.

So Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?

First off, Loney is coming off the board at around the 165th pick and the 16th first baseman (according to ESPN Live Draft ADP.)

I think we can all agree that Loney’s not touching the top-8 this year:  Pujols, Cabrera, Texiera, Howard, Berkman, Fielder, Morneau, Gonzalez.

Then begins the mish-mash of first basemen, lead by none other than Loney’s best career path: Derrek Lee.  This next group consists of Lee, Pena, Votto, Delgado, Jackson, LaRoche, Sandoval.  Looking at this group of hitters, the obvious answer to why Loney’s ranking so low is his lack of power.  Let’s break it down though, starting with Loney himself:

2008 Loney: 66 RUN / 13 HR / 90 RBI / .289 AVG / 7 SB

Batting Order: Loney could bat 4th, 5th, or 6th.  The Dodgers lost the dead weight of Kent, and Andruw Jones while bringing in Orlando Hudson. Loney will now have a full season of Manny, Furcal and Blake, as well.

The line-up is improved from front to back, and the important part is that while Loney had a worse second half, his counting stats actually increased.  Worse Batting Average, On-Base-Percentage, and Slugging Percentage somehow meant more RBI and more HR.  The runs weren’t there, which is the one thing that we should have expected.

You should expect an increase in RBI and R in this line-up, which starts to push Loney awfully close to the 100RBI mark.

Power: Loney will eventually come in with 25-HR power, the question is when.  In 2007, Loney didn’t even get to 400AB and managed to hit 15 HR.  In 2008, Loney hit 13 HR all year! in 600AB!

His isolated power dropped, his slugging percentage dropped, and his on-base percentage dropped.  Every stat you could possibly imagine dropped from 2007 to 2008.

I am however a firm believer in the motto: “Once you show something, you own it”.  Loney showed he had 20-25HR power in his rookie year, and now he owns it.  It’ll be at least 2 or 3 seasons before I strip him of that tag.

In addition to the increase in Runs and RBI, I’d expect 20 HR out of the big fella.

Contact: Loney’s a legitimate .300 hitter, and shouldn’t have to sacrafice his average to hit more dingers.  He wont post the ridiculous .330 again, unless he starts gettin’ real lucky.

Loney’s Line: 75R/19-20HR/95RBI/.300AVG/7SB

Loney vs. Sandoval

Have you seen Pablo Sandoval’s BABIP over the past couple years?  Look at him, he’s not someone who posts .387 (A+), .347 (AA), .367 (MLB) BABIPs at each level in 2008. While Sandoval is a very popular sleeper, he doesn’t walk and slugging .500 again is asking a lot.  Loney’s in a better line-up with more RBI opportunities.

Loney vs. LaRoche

It seems like LaRoche should be hitting more Home Runs, right?  He’s only pegged for somewhere in the neighbourhood of 25HR on the year.  You’re taking Loney even if you think he only hits 15 HR.  Loney’s batting average should be at least .290 to LaRoche’s .270, and he’ll post noticeably better R and RBI totals.  While you can’t bank on Loney running wild, you’re also probably getting at least 5 or 6 more stolen bases out of him.  Even a .20pt average, 5 runs, 5 Rbi, 5 SB make up for the difference in 6 or 7 HR.  These are also also very conservative estimates of Loney.

Loney vs. Jackson

They’ll both hit between 15-20HR and they’ll both hit around .300.  Looking at Jackson’s 10 stolen bases compared to Loney’s 7 SB, is probably a wash so it comes down to R and RBI.  Jackson hasn’t proven he’s a run producer, and I tend to think that Loney’s RBI+RUN will best whatever Jackson can put up.

These two you can compare probably the easiest of the bunch, as they’re essentially the same type of player. The Diamondbacks have a capable replacement to steal at-bats in Chad Tracy; assuming Eric Byrnes eventually wiggles his way back into the line-up.  The only thing Jackson has going for him is his multi-position eligibility.

Loney vs. Delgado

Finally we’re getting to the tough comparisons.  Delgado is going to knock out 30HR, and hits in a very solid line-up. He’ll occupy a better spot in the line-up as well.  So we’re looking at at least 2, with a very good shot at 3, categories Delgado will take Loney in.

However, Delgado is going to hit about .260 to .270, and won’t steal a base.

Even if you consider Loney dominating those two cataegories, it’s still a fairly close race.  Then you take into account Delgado is getting very old, and very close to the point where great ball players just fall off the edge.

Loney vs. Votto

This is where the Loney fun stops.  I can’t under any circumstances place Loney ahead of Joey Votto.  Loney’s speed is negated, Loney’s average is negated and Loney’s age is negated.  Both are young, and Votto plays in a better park which makes up for the slightly worse line-up.

Loney vs. Pena

Pena hit .247 last year with 31HR. Depending on your league, that average starts getting to the point where it’s *too* low for a paltry 30 HR.  The line-ups are fairly similar, and Pena strikes out a tonne.  Pena also walks a good bit, which makes his average slightly less harmful.

Are 15 HR worth a .50 pt batting average dip, and the 7 or 8 steals Loney brings to the table? It really depends on your league.  If all goes well for Loney, this is a definite push.

Loney vs. Lee

This is the most interesting of the bunch.  If Loney continues to mature, he’ll post Derrek Lee’s 2008 season: 93R/20HR/90RBI/.291AVG/8SB

This is what owners thought Loney would do last year.

Lee’s on the downside of his career, and you should probably expect a decline in his SB numbers at the very least.  Loney on the other hand is just starting to enter his prime.

Loney vs. The Conclusion

After looking through this, Joey Votto is realistically the only player I couldn’t go into a draft saying would be outperformed by James Loney.

All of the other guys on this list, could potentially and quite easily, be outperformed by Loney.  Loney’s just starting to come into his prime, as he’ll turn 25 about halfway through the season.  He’s still got a lot of maturing to endure, but he could put up very solid numbers this year.

So Why Is Loney Ranked So Low? People become fixated with his run total, and lack of power from the first base position.  Loney will improve upon his 66 Runs scored, even if he doesn’t mature as a player.  Maybe Matt Kemp Matures. Maybe Russell Martin becomes the best fantasy catcher out there. Andre Ethier could easily become a force this year.  Loney’s Run numbers should take care of themselves.

His power on the other hand is a different story.  You should be concerned that your first baseman may only hit 13 HR. Loney hasn’t shown true HR power at any point in his career, even in the minors.  He has shown power though, and he could potentially slug at a .500 clip again. Young players often display doubles power before they break out and start smash-killing the ball.

20 HR isn’t out of the question, and he could easily best that number.

I actually enjoyed this, and hopefully I’ll get some other googlized questions.

As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago.  I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.

Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:

What’s Missing?

Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year.  If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.

Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy.  Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.

The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel.  Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.

Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam.  Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year.  The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.

Now that we’ve at least got a handful of statistics, a recap of the recaps is due.  While the sample size is still ridiculously small, I’m sure we can find something in the statistics.

Who’s Getting the At-Bats?

Managers are fairly simple creatures.  If they want to know more about a group of players, they’ll play them.  If they impress, maybe they’ll earn an invite to the show or even a starting gig. With that said, here are the guys that are being trotted out there for more than an inning or two.

Pitching Statistics will follow tomorrow.

Colby Rasmus, St. Louis Cardinals – 19AB: Rasmus hasn’t been killing it, but he hasn’t been downright awful.  His defensive versatility helps his cause.  Rasmus’ Line: .211/.318/.263.  LaRussa will continue to trot him out there, until he gets a feel for him.  I think Rasmus nabs a starting gig and contributes enough to help a fantasy squad. Unfortunately his declining batting average will keep him off rosters. The strike-outs are troublesome.

Daniel Murphy, New York Mets – 18AB: Murphy’s definitely one of my favourite sleepers at this point.  I’m not sure why the Mets haven’t gotten into the Manny sweepstakes at all this offseason.  After last year’s utter collapse, a player as relaxed as Manny might help.

Murphy’s seen all of his AB in LF, but his ability to play multiple infield positions will definitely help his chances. While he wont shine at second or third base, he’ll play them competantly enough.  Murphy should be able to snag himself somewhere between 500-550 AB from the looks of it.

Micah Hoffpauir, Chicago Cubs – 15AB: Hoffpauir has been killing the ball, slugging .800 while batting .400.  The problem for Hoffpauir is opportunity, obviously.  Hoffpauir played a bit of outfield and first base in limited action last year, but unfortunately all of positions are already accounted for.

The good news for Hoffpauir is that neither Derrek Lee, Alfonso Soriano, nor Milton Bradley are the picture of perfect help. 300AB seems like a fair estimate for Hoffpauir.

Nyjer Morgan, Pittsburgh Pirates – 13AB: Morgan seems to have the left field gig on lockdown. With Nate McLouth and Brandon Moss currently pencilled in for the other two starting spots things don’t look good for the youngsters.  Steven Pearce and Andrew McCutchen are still interesting prospects to keep an eye on throughout Spring Training.  Morgan hasn’t been lighting it up, hitting only .231 without a single walk, but he’s got the kind of speed that’s worth a rosterspot if he holds onto the left-field gig.

Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds – 13AB: I like Votto, and he’s somewhere around Derrek Lee in my rankings.  I didn’t think Votto would fall into the sophomore slump that haunts even the best rookies, but I also didn’t think he’d break out.  So far he’s been smash-killing the ball — slugging 1.000 and batting .571.  Not bad for a weeks work.

Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies – 12AB: Gonzalez has been playing quite a bit, and has been playing in every conceivable outfield position.  While his hitting hasn’t been spectacular, he’s only struck out twice.  Gonzalez can hit, but what you want to keep an eye on is his BB-Rate and K-Rate. I’m still pretty high on Gonzalez for no apparent reason.

Travis Ishikawa, San Francisco Giants – 12AB: The Giants are praying that Ishikawa can win the job and he’s not dissapointing so far.  He’s batting .500/.500/1.083 so far.  He’s got some pop, but he’s still a bottom tier first baseman in a very bad line-up.

Chris Dickerson and Jerry Hairston Jr, Cincinatti Reds — Dickerson has hit 2 Home Runs in 6AB. Unfortunately, he’s also struck out twice. Hairston hasn’t faired all that well, batting only .125. Hairston has, however, been playing all over the diamond.  I think Dickerson takes the left-field job, and Hairston Jr. ends up as a super-utility type player.  Dickerson brings a nice speed/power combo to the table at a very reasonable price.

Scott Thorman, Milwaukee Brewers – 11AB: Thorman hails from my home-town: Cambridge, Ontario. He’s been killing the ball, going 7-for-11, but Prince Fielder is pretty entrenched at the 1st base position.

Spring Training, Who’s Impressing and Who’s Depressing.

Brian Buscher of the Twins has been staking his claim to a starting gig since the Joe Crede signing. Talent and line-up are in his favour.  It’s just the dreaded “lack of opportunity” line.

While I can’t whole-heartedly recommend a Mariner in good faith, I will advise you that Franklin Guetierrez makes a terrific addition to any fantasy squad.

It appears as though Ryan Sweeney wants that starting-CF gig more than Rajai Davis, so far. Sweeney’s the better all around player, but Davis brings boatloads of speed to the table. 

Delmon Young is having a great spring going 6-for-7 so far, unfortunately the power-outage is still in effect. Young only has one extra-base hit so far, and he’s going to have to show something soon.

Andruw Jones has been awful, and I’ve documented his love of the strike-out in every spring training post.  He leads spring training with 8 strike-outs in 9AB.  Colby Rasmus is the next closest with 6K’s in 19AB. Another uber-prospect, the Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen, is also striking out too much: 5K’s in 10AB.  Jordan Schafer, yet another prospect, is killing the ball while tallying up an impressive K total: 5K-11AB.

Nothing’s more useless than Spring Training stolen base statistics, but Ryan Freel has stolen 4 bases. Corey Hart is next with 3 SB.

Brett Gardner leads spring training so far with 13 TB but I can’t see Melky Cabrera not starting in CF.

…it’s getting late, we’ll finish this up tomorrow.

Spring Training Statistics From MLB.com