In an off-day for many clubs, a couple players had great games.  Alex Rios homered in the 9th and stole a base in the 2nd in a win over Justin Masterson and the Tribe.  Rios is now hitting .309 on the year with a BABIP right where it should be.  The strike-outs are down a couple percent and he’s making contact 5% more of the time.  Rios’ first strike percentage is down almost 8% and his SwStr% has followed suit, down almost 2pts.  Everything about Rios’ resurgence looks to be legit; it’s just a matter of dedication at this point.

Sergio Santos picked up another hold and registered a strike-out; that’s 10.90 K/9 on the year.  Santos’ fastball is averaging 95.5mph and he’s getting 10mphs of separation on his off-speed stuff (SL: 85.5, CH: 86.3).  The back-end of Santos, Thorton, Putz and Jenks all pitched in John Danks‘ victory and everyone looked solid.  Santos gave up the only hit and Jenks the only walk.

Dustin Pedroia had three hits against the Rays and both Youkilis and Ortiz hit DINGERS!  Youkilis has hit 5 of his 10 home-runs in the last 8-games, I think that’s a hot-streak.  Ortiz has followed suit, hitting 5 of his 9 homers in the last 9 games.  Things are definitely heating up in Boston and everyone gets a slight bump in the rankings.

Clay Buchholz pitched 6 solid innings getting the quality start:  6H, 1ER, 8K, 1BB.  Carlos Pena took Buchholz deep for his only run surrendered. Hopefully if you own Pena, you’re in an OBP league.  Pena’s hitting .191 on the year which is only palatable when he’s hitting homers.   Buchholz, despite his somewhat disappointing K-Rate (6.95-per-9), has returned to his 2007-ways in terms of O-Swing (31%) and Swinging Strike (11%).

Aaron Harang got the win despite allowing five runs (four earned).  Harang only allowed a couple of walks but gave up eight hits in 6.1IP.  Over the course of the season, Harang’s just been remarkably hittable.  Harang’s velocity is up but the horizontal movement has dropped; counteracting that, is the increase in vertical movement.  Batters are just teeing off on Harang’s fastball and I really don’t have an answer… or even a question, at this point.  A .353 BABIP and 65% LOB-rate certainly aren’t helping things.  Harang’s release point is still clustered by pitch, rather than constant, though.

The Blue Jays didn’t homer in last night’s 6-0 victory over the Angels but Adam Lind had a double.  I keep wanting to believe that Lind will snap out of it but the 26% K-Rate is worrisome as is the return to 30%+ O-Swing.  He’s definitely pressing.

The big story of the night was Jose Bautista’s 3 walks.  The Angels didn’t want to pitch to him and Bautista resisted temptation.  Edwin Encarnacion or E5 followed suit by taking a couple walks of his own.

Brett Cecil will get his own article but he pitched very well: 7.1IP, 3K, 2BB.  Cecil’s WHIP is now at 1.15 on the year.

Some fantasy baseball providers are idiots; not just idiots, but enablers to even larger idiots.  Somehow Holds have made their way into fantasy baseball, and for some screwed up reason commissioners decide to click the Holds check box without even understanding what exactly a hold is.

What exactly is a hold in baseball?

To earn a hold, a pitcher must:

1. enters the game in a save situation; that is, one of the following three conditions applies:

• his team has a lead of no more than three runs, and there are at least three outs remaining
• the potential tying run is either on base, at bat, or on deck
• there are at least three innings remaining in the game

2. records at least one out;
3. leaves the game without his team having relinquished the lead at any point.

Wikipedia Link

If Mr. Cracker Jack can enter a 2-1 game, strike out the first batter, walk the bases full, get pulled and still earn a save, so long as he didn’t allow a run.  Great Stat.

With that said, who earns these bastardly stats?

Late Inning Relievers who:

1. …pitch the 7th or 8th Inning.
2. …pitch on a good club.
3. …are left handed.

When you draft a player for holds, you generally want someone that won’t kill your ratios. However, quite a few of these HOLD specialists really aren’t that great of pitchers.

Here are the Holds Leaders for 2008 and 2007

2008

2007

.

Looking at these numbers, what can we gather? A good team helps, but it’s much more about opportunity. It’s also a pain in the ass to predict who will do well, unless their role of setup man is guaranteed. We can also gather that Holds is a really unnecessary statistic.

Lefties that come in for a batter or two, and then get out of there, are just as valuable as great pitchers.

So who has a shot at doing well this year?

Solid Bets:

Scott Shields & Jose Arredondo – LA Angels

Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs

Dan Wheeler – Tampa Bay Rays

Scott Downs – Toronto Blue Jays

Tony Pena – Arizona Diamondbacks

Hideki Okajima – Boston Red Sox

Rafael Perez – Cleveland Indians

J.J. Putz – New York Mets

Ryan Franklin – St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Guerrier – Minnesota Twins

Kyle McClellan – St. Louis Cardinals

The Next Tier

Ryan Madson – Philadelphia Phillies

Rafael Soriano – Atlanta Braves

Scott Linebrink – Chicago White Sox

Rafael Betancourt – Cleveland Indians

J.P. Howell – Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Thorton – Chicago White Sox

Brandon Lyon – Detroit Tigers

Juan Cruz – Kansas City Royals

Joe Beimel – Washington Nationals

Jesse Carlson – Toronto Blue Jays

Edwar Ramirez – New York Yankees

John Grabow – Pittsburgh Pirates

Jeremy Affeldt – San Francisco Giants

C.J. Wilson – Texas Rangers

Who Knows.. Maybe worth the risk.

Renyel Pinto – Florida Marlins

Hong-Chih Kuo – Los Angeles Dodgers

LaTroy Hawkins – Houston Astros

Jesse Crain – Minnesota Twins

Cla Meredith – San Diego Padres

Brian Bruney – New York Yankees

Jerry Blevins – Oakland Athletics

Mark Lowe – Seattle Mariners

Eddie Guadardo – Texas Rangers

I did not enjoy putting this list together at all, and I hope to have listed at least 75% of the guys that finish in the top-25 holds by years’ end.

The question you should ask yourself when drafting holds, is where else can the player contribute.  A lot of the better pitchers will contribute to your ratios and strikeouts, whereas the guys on good teams will contribute to your W totals.