Javier Vazquez

Don’t Look Now, but…

Colby Rasmus has already hit six home-runs in June so far and it’s only the 17th.  Rasmus also hit six in April on a similar 30% HR/FB ratio.  More importantly, Colby Rasmus has tempered his free swinging ways after posting a 33.8% and 39.3% K-Rate in April and May respectively.   Rasmus has went 13 straight games without a multiple strike-out performance and posted an 18.6% strikeout rate in June.  Rasmus’ K-Rate still sits at 32.8% which may make stat-savvy owners more likely to give him up at a discounted price.  If you think Rasmus has turned the corner, now’s the time to grab him.  He’s still due for some regression but the skill-set is definitely there.

Brett Myers has an ERA of 3.18 despite a relatively average .322 BABIP and 74.6% LOB-Rate.  Myers is striking out 9.15 hitters-per-9 and sporting a 1.16 WHIP in June.  Shockingly, Myers has yet to go fewer than 6 Innings all year.  Myers has posted a quality start in 9 of his 13 chances this year.

After posting ERAs of 4.97 and 5.03 in the previous two months, Javier Vazquez is posting a 3.31 ERA in June thus far.  Hitters have been hitting a mere .157 (on a .158 BABIP) during the same time span. After a couple months where Vazquez posted 4.50+ BB/9, he’s finally settled down to the 2.14 BB/9 region in June.  Vazquez has always posted terrific K:BB numbers and may have finally turned the corner.  Vazquez won’t be the sub-3.00 ERA pitcher that he was for the Braves last year, but he’s still very talented and a terrific buy at this point.

Josh Hamilton is quietly putting together MVP-type numbers after catching fire in June.  Hamilton’s tied with Carlos Pena for the league lead in HR since June 1st with 7.  Hamilton’s slow start to the season has been overshadowed by his ascent up the leader boards.  Hamilton’s currently 5th in HR, 8th in RBI, 11th in RBI and 13th in batting average.

Jonny Gomes is holding his own against righties.  Primarily a platoon slugger, Gomes now has a slash-line of .285/.324/.485 with six of his nine homers against righties.  Against lefties, Gomes is almost a must start with only an 18.6% K-Rate, 13.7% BB-Rate and a 1.082 OPS.  Considering that Gomes only has a  9.7 HR/FB against lefties, he should be in for a homer-binge at some point soon.

Javier Vazquez

Sacks Juiced: May 22nd.

Excuse me if this is brief, I’ve always had a long-standing mantra when it comes to sports that affected last night:  The Playoffs Rule.  If there’s a playoff game on in any of the four major sports leagues, it takes precedence.  As a Canuck, I probably should be more of a hockey fan but I’m not; it’s baseball and football for me.  With that said, I was pretty excited that the hockey team that plays in a market with winter beat the hockey team that plays in California in an overtime bonanza.  Today, the Canadian team will face the American team at 3:00PM as to not disrupt the 8:20PM Basketball game.

Shin-Soo Choo hit a couple of dingers in the CLE/CIN game.  Choo has a freaky way of maintaining a ridiculously high BABIP, so don’t worry about his .355 BABIP.  The LD% is down but remember that Choo had a .367 and .370 BABIP over the past couple years.  With Choo’s walk-rate up and K-Rate down, he should have absolutely no problem posting a 20-20 season in Cleveland.

Kerry Wood gave up a homer in a non-save situation but also struck out a couple of batters.  Wood’s probably an injury risk and Chris Perez has been solid but at this point, the stuff is there.

Joey Votto stole a couple bases — that’s 6 on the year.  I think Votto’s finally entered the “elite” category of first basemen, but keep an eye on his 50% GB-Rate.

Lefty J.C. Romero retired two batters to get the save for the Phillies against the Red Sox.  Romero relieved Baez, who’d put a man on first and second, in a 4-run game.  Romero got J.D. Drew to ground-out (advancing the runners) before plonking Beltre.  Finally, Romero got David Ortiz to fly out to deep-center.  Romero was more than likely brought in to deal with the lefties and did just that; even if it wasn’t pretty.

Jimmy Rollins was back atop the lineup with Victorino hitting behind  Ibanez.

Tim Hudson shutdown the Pirates.  Hudson has a 2.09ERA and a 3.88K/3.43BB rate — guh.  Obviously, Hudson’s gawdy 66% GB-Rate has been keeping him elite but at some point, the .213 BABIP and 87% LOB-Rate will abandon him.  I don’t see this ending well.

The Orioles are actually starting to hit:  Adam Jones had his first homer since April 24th.

Javier Vazquez got well against the Mets.  Takahashi pitched a very solid game for his first start: 6IP, 5H, 1BB, 0ER, 5K.  Takahashi is now striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP with a 2.91 tERA and a 3.56 xFIP.  Definitely someone to take a look at in deeper leagues (even with a Mets’ bullpen that has WHIPs that resemble ERAs)

Colby Lewis shut down the Cubs even though he walked 3 in 6 IP.  Lewis is striking out a batter per inning and is a solid bet to post a sub-4.00 ERA on the year.  Lewis is going to his Slider quite a bit more than previous years — it’s up to 30% and the Curve’s down to 8% versus last year’s 13% SL/23% CU split.

That’s 12 Saves on the season for Neftali Feliz.  I don’t understand why Texas gave up so soon on the dream of Neftali being a starter but to each his own, I guess.

Brett Myers is now (3-3) on a 15-27 Houston team.  Seven strike-outs in seven innings certainly doesn’t hurt his value.  Myers allowed a single unearned run in the first inning.  Myers is still a grade-A douchebag but his O-Swing is up 5% and his contact-rate is down 5%.  Myers also hasn’t seen his Swinging Strike percentage at 9 in a couple of years.  Myers has been going to his slider more often which has the best downward movement in his career.

Matt Lindstrom picked up his 10th save of the year and has his BB-Rate below 2.  A 3.75 K:BB Matt Lindstrom is a very useful Matt Lindstrom.  He’s left 93% of runners stranded but every other indicator shows that Lindstrom is just better.

Mark Buerhle pitched a great game: 8IP, 3H,  3K.  Buerhle does this from time to time before reminding the world that he’s spectacularly average. Sergio Santos pitched the ninth and struck out a couple batters.  This is me tooting Carlos Quentin’s horn for the third straight day.

Nick Punto was the only Minnesota Twin to not touch home plate and score a run last night.  Nick Blackburn is now 5-and-1.  That’s that for that 15-3 rout.

Jose Guillen hit a couple more DINGERS!  Twenty-two percent of his fly-balls are going for a long ride over the fence.  Unless you’re a baseball purist, there’s absolutely no reason to dislike the hilarity that follows Jose Guillen.

Colby Rasmus tripled for his lone hit of the day.  As a Rasmus owner, I’m absolutely terrified.  Rasmus is striking out 35% of the time and has a .368 BABIP.  Rasmus has a .930 OPS and has been graded AAA by Moody’s, S  & P and Fitch — Obviously, it’s buying time. Banking Sarcasm!

I can’t believe I turned off the Blue Jays / Diamondbacks game last night.  The Diamondbacks (397K) are number one in strike-outs and the Blue Jays (361K) are number 2.  Almost as if these two things were connected, the Blue Jays are number 1 in DINGERS! (72) and the Diamondbacks are number 3 (56 HR).

Here’s the DINGERS! from last night’s game:  Fred Lewis, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, Chris Young.

In six and two-thirds innings, Trevor Cahill struck out four and only walked one.  Walks will be the biggest factor in Cahill’s development.  I love the kid.

Cliff Lee got the win after giving up 7ER?  The weird part is that the Padres didn’t take a single walk, they just aimed and fired en route to 15 hits.

Mike Sweeney hit a couple of DINGERS! but really doesn’t deserve too much attention at this point.

Austin Jackson had two more hits and is still hitting 36% line-drives.

Javier Vazquez

Tidbits From Spring Training: Pitchers …Pitch.

I’m not going to tell you how much to value spring training numbers for hitters, but I will tell you that you should value pitching numbers even less.  With that said, here are some interesting timbits and tidbits.

Everyones favourite 21 year old phenomenon, Clayton Kershaw (SP-LAD) is tossing a strike-out per inning with 20 K in 20.1 IP to go along with a half-decent 3.48 ERA.

One of my favourite sleepers, Zack Greinke (SP – KC), has been roughed up pretty badly giving up 17 ER in 21 IP for an ERA above 7. I wouldn’t worry too much, unless it’s injury induced. Other notables that’ve been roughed up throughout the Spring: Scott Baker (SP – MIN), Matt Cain (SP-SFG), Brandon Webb (SP-ARI), Yovanni Gallardo (SP-MIL), John Maine (SP-NYM), Cliff Lee (SP-CLE), Chad Billingsley (SP-LAD), Ubaldo Jiminez (SP-COL), John Lackey (SP-LAA), Mike Pelfrey (SP-NYM) among others.

Francisco Liriano (SP – MIN) seems to be coming along, with 19 K in 21.1 IP.  If the Twins allow Liriano to use his filthy slider, he’ll be terrific.

John Danks (SP – CHI), Ricky Nolasco (SP – FLA) and Adam Wainwright (SP – STL) are all having very good springs, each going for around a strike-out per inning. Nolasco probably has the most potential for a league-changing fantasy impact, but that has a lot to do with his ballpark.  This may be the year Wainwright breaks out.  According to ESPN’s ADP, I’d say every pitcher from 11 to 35 could finish in any given order — I’d call this depth.

It appears as though the Blue Jays are set on destroying Roy Halladay (SP-TOR) as he’s already pitched 27 innings this spring. That’s after pitching 246 innings last year.  I’m still about as worried as I get about an over-use injury. The Jays are going to be awful this year, really awful.

Micah Owings (SP – CIN) is known for his HR power, but he’s been having a very solid spring.  The Great American Band-Box really limits his potential, but a 1.45 ERA and 19 K’s is nice work in 18.2IP.  Owings doesn’t really have a devastating out pitch and is vying for the 5th starter-role.  Owings main competition is youngster Homer Bailey (SP-CIN). Bailey is sporting a 2.45 ERA with 12 K’s in 14.2 IP.  Bailey’s shown chinks, but his ceiling is quite a bit higher than Owings.

Some other notables that have been destroying spring training hitting: Clay Bucholz (SP-BOS) has registered a .46 ERA to go along with 15 strike-outs in 19.2 IP. Ryan Dempster (SP-CHC) has been mystifying batters. Jason Motte (RP-STL) is keeping his ERA below 1.00 and pretty much has the closers role on lock-down. Kevin Slowey (SP-MIN) is sporting a 1.88 ERA, striking out 15 batters in 14.1 IP. Tommy Hanson (SP-ATL) is continuing his Arizona Fall League dominance but still doesn’t have a place to play; his 2.45 ERA and 14K in 14.2IP is real nice.

What the hell happened with Kei Igawa (SP – NYY) who’s posted a .73 ERA in 12.1 IP, to go with 13 strike outs.  Igawa is buried, but he is starting to look like very solid trade bait. Paul Maholm (SP-PIT) is dominating this spring and is a very solid late round pick to fill out your rotation: .46 ERA, to go with 12 strikeouts and only 1 walk in 19.2 IP.

Edison Volquez (SP-CIN) is dominating and hasn’t allowed a run yet in 14 IP.  He has however walked 5 with only 12 K. Johnny Cueto (SP-CIN) is looking just about as solid as Volquez, with a 1.50 ERA, 11 K and 2 BB in 18 IP. Javier Vazquez (SP-ATL) is posting solid spring numbers, and if your league uses K:BB — he’s golden.

Finally, Chris Carpenter (SP/RP – STL) is dominating this spring and may just be healthy.  He still hasn’t allowed a run and has struck out 10, and walked 4 in 19 IP.  He’s not the Chris Carpenter of old, but he’s still servicable it seems.

Javier Vazquez

The 200 Strike-Out Club — Who’s In and Who’s Out?

2008 brought us 10 pitchers who achieved the magical fantasy mark of 200 strike-outs. 2007 brought us only 8, and 2006 only 6 pitchers who managed to get to the 200K mark.

Obviously, other than skill, the main obstacle is health. With that said, lets break ‘em down into the gents that could achieve 200 strikeouts.

The Sure Things?

Johan Santana – New York Mets

Since grabbing a full-fledged starting gig in 2004, Johan Santana has notched 200+ strike-outs every year — this is good.  However, during the same period he’s never pitched less than 219 innings — bad.

Santana’s strike-outs per nine also took a huge hit in 2008, dropping from 9.6K/9 down to 7.91! K/9.  In his previous years, they hadn’t fallen below 9.25. Expecting 240IP from Santana is quite a bit, and probably too much — a more realistic goal is 215IP-or bust.

Tim Lincecum – San Francisco Giants

The littlest Lincecum has the “stuff” but he’s just so tiny. It’s always interesting to watch hard-throwers develop, and it’s best to find where the velocity comes from.  Chris O’Leary does a solid job analyzing Lincecum’s throwing motion, and notes that there is some inverted-L in there.  It’s hard to tell from the angles he provides, and while it looks the part — you really can’t tell how much twist/torque he puts on it.

Lincecum comes in at darn near 10K per nine, which means he does have the lee-way for a DL stint, or maybe two.  After last year’s Cy-Young push — I wouldn’t be surprised to see his pitch-count dialed down a bit.

Chad Billingsley – Los Angeles Dodgers

Billingsley stands out because he hasn’t quite reached the “fantasy-ace” plateau yet, his other numbers aren’t quite there yet but he’s probably your third best bet to nab 200K. At 6’1-245lbs, Billingsley certainly fits the part of hard-throwing front of the rotation innings eater.

Billingsley is one of the few pitchers with a 9.00+ K per 9, and no outstanding risk.  I’d expect the peripherals to come down as well.

Injuries or Innings Pitched

Here’s the group of ball-players who will either battle injuries, or will have to put up crazy-nuts IP numbers to attain that magical mark.

C.C. Sabathia – New York Yankees

I’m terrified of C.C. this year, and while he’s sturdily? built, I’m not sure about those 253 Innings the Brewers piled on Sabathia during their playoff push.  Over the last two years, Sabathia is coming eerily close to 500IP — scary.  While there’s nothing to say that Sabathia can’t take it, the Yankees aren’t going to push him considering they’ll have him around for potentially 6 more years after 2009.

Sabathia’s career K per 9 isn’t staggering, but it’s solid. Expecting somewhere around 8K per 9 seems about fair, which would be a slight decline from last year’s stellar 8.93K per 9.  Which would put C.C. Sabathia at about 225 Innings Pitched to join the 200K club.

A.J. Burnett – New York Yankees

The Yankees other off-season toy, could be a dandy if he can stay healthy.  Burnett has buckets of talent, and the only thing keeping him from fulfilling his all-star potential is his elbow (which i discussed here).

Burnett has the dirty dirty, but signing him to a deal longer than 2-years is suicide. Burnett comes in at about a K per Inning, and has put up 9.5 K per nine over the past couple years.

Quite Simply: 200 IP = 200 K.

Cole Hamels – Philadelphia Phillies

It seems as though Hamels is adjusting to the role of ACE, quite well. As his Innings increased, he’s clearly lowered his K rate.  His K rate as dropped each year he’s been in the bigs from 9.86, to 8.69, to 2008′s 7.76.

If Hamels stays under 8 K per 9, he’s going to have some issues getting to 200K.  It does however make sense to see Hamels K rate even off somewhere closer to the mid-to-low 8′s, which puts him in the right area to approach 200K without incurring crazy pitch-counts or innings-pitched.

Jake Peavy – San Diego Padres

The 200K club is indeed volatile, yet Peavy notched 200K three years in a row from 2005-2007 (216, 215, 240) and then fell off a cliff in 2008.  Injuries limited Peavy to 173 IP, and dropped his K:9 down almost a full point to 8.60.

If Peavy stays healthy, he’s a lock for 200K.  I’d mark him down for somewhere between his 8.60K/9 mark and his previous marks of 9.50-9.60K/9.  If Peavy goes for a K per Inning, as predicted by almost all of the projection models — he’s as good as bet as anyone to get 200K

Rich Harden – Chicago Cubs

He and Lincecum are the top strike-out pitchers in the game.  With a 10+ K per 9, Harden can rack up the strikeouts in under 200 IP.  The problem is, Harden rarely gets to that mark.

Javier Vazquez – Atlanta Braves

Mr. Reliable.  Vazquez seems to put up solid stats wherever he’s shipped off to. While Vazquez hasn’t put up a full 230 IP, since 2004 — with a high-8 k per nine, he doesn’t need it. There’s no reason to believe that Vazquez has hit the wall, and he’s got a solid shot of getting the 220 IP he’ll need to top the 200K mark.

Clayton Kershaw – Los Angeles Dodgers

Kershaw only went for 107 innings, starting 21 Games in 2008. Personally, I expected a bit more than 8.36 K per 9 from Kershaw considering his minor-league track record.  A slight increase to about a strike-out per inning seems reasonable, as Kershaw’s got a nasty one-two fastball-curveball combination.

Now, you have to ask yourself how many innings Kershaw will pitch in 2009.  He’s the franchise, and Joe Torre will keep him on the shortest leash you can think of.  There’s no reason to get his pitch-count too high and risk his future. Even if Kershaw starts enough games, he’ll be getting the quick-hook too often for him to nab 200 IP.

As with any Kershaw Article, I’ll link here: The Hardball Times Evaluates Kershaw.

Felix Hernandez – Seattle Mariners

This is the year for Felix, The King, Hernandez.  Felix is all but locked into his 8.50K per 9, and there’s very little reason to believe it’ll take a hit even if he starts pitching rather than throwing.  He’ll always be up there for top average velocity on his fastball, and he’ll always have 200K Potential.

Scott Kazmir – Tampa Bay Rays

I’m on the fence with Kazmir more than any pitcher in this group.  Kazmir’s tiny-little frame is always going to be a massive injury risk, but it doesn’t particularly look like he’s going to be be a complete waste. When Pitching-God, Rick Peterson, told the public that he could fix Victor Zambrano in one session, the entire trade got blown way out of proportion.

The Mets knew they were dealing away a pitcher in Kazmir that had all of the talent in the world, but was going to be plagued by injuries for the majority of his career. In return, they assumed they were snagging a solid K:9 guy who had one fatal flaw, that Peterson believed was fixable.  Well, Zambrano continued to suck it up and Kazmir has already provided enough value to make this one of the worst trades, in recorded history.

Last year Kazmir lowered the amount of sliders he threw by almost 10 percent, and for a pitcher with a wicked slider — this should have posed a problem.  Yes, he did drop from 10+ strike-outs per nine down to a very respectable strike-out per inning. He managed to come in at third behind Harden and Chamberlain in K per 9 for pitchers with at least 100IP (which to me eliminates relievers pretty much).

Kazmir is going to need to use his slider to maintain a strike-out per inning ratio, but it’ll more than likely shorten his career.  Even if he relegates his slider to a pure out-pitch, using it about 10 percent of the time as he did last year — he’s still an injury risk.

Buyer Beware.

The Rest of the Best?

Dan Haren – Arizona

Ridiculously close, Haren seems to have broken the “Billy-Beane-Decided-To-Trade-Me-So-Now-Imma-Suck-It-Up” curse that so many Athletics have fallen into. I’m not sure if Danny Haren can maintain his 8.50 K per 9, as prior to last year he was regularly posting sub-8.00 K per nine.

Haren has improved each and every year, from his days as a Cardinal to his most recent season as a Diamondback.  I’d bank on a mid-7′s K to 9, with about 200-220IP.

Ervin Santana – Los Angeles Angels

Santana just signed himself a big ol’ deal and every thing’s looking up for Ervin.  I do however have a hard time believing he’ll replicate his 2008 numbers.

You can trace his drastic improvement to cutting the junk, and throwing his slider harder and more often. He upped the velocity of his slider from 81mph to 84mph, to go along with a 2mph increase in fastball velocity.

This obviously lead to an almost 16 percent improvement (or decrease) in O-Contact. Batters went from making contact with balls tossed outside of the zone from 70 percent in 2007, to 53.6%.

An increase like this in velocity always worries me, as they may know A-Rod’s cousin which could spell injury.  Speculation will kill you in fantasy leagues though — or maybe it’ll save you.

Zach Greinke – Kansas City Royals

Everything looks right for a Zach Greinke break-out. A full season, and a slight increase in K per 9 should mean an easy 200K for Greinke.

At this point, I’m banking on Greinke to outperform comparable starters such as Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Ryan Dempster, and Matt Cain.  If someone in this list floats your boat, then go with it.  Nothing feels better than cashing in on a gut feeling.  My second stomach says Nolasco.

Roy Halladay – Toronto Blue Jays

Halladay has to log a lot of innings to come close to 200K and the last time he touched the magic mark prior to last year was 2003 when he went for 266 IP (which he followed up by going for 133IP). Halladay increased his K per 9 to 7.5 last year, which he’ll have issues replicating.  Halladay seems like the most likely to fail.

Edison Volquez – Cincinnati Reds

Volquez is another starter I have issues believing will end up with 200 Ks when all’s said and done.  This is independent of the amount of fail Volquez will bring to the table, as even with a stellar 2008 9.50 K:9 — I’m not sure if he manages.

Something definitely seems off with Volquez going into 2009, and you have to remember this is the same pitcher that’s constantly battled control issues.  If the batters stop swinging, the K’s go down. 2008′s 83 percent contact rate in the ZONE, is a huge drop from his previous seasons of ’round aboot 90ish.

Erik Bedard – Seattle Mariners

Bedard, like Harden, is a ballin’ ass Canadian who has some  serious issues staying healthy.  Bedard looked to be the Saviour of Seattle, until they realized they gave up way too much to get him (and Adam Jones still  hasn’t come close to his potential).

In 2007, Bedard put up a ridiculous 10.71 K per 9 and managed 221 strikeouts in 182 Innings pitched. It’s probably stupid-silly to expect another 10+ K per 9 from Bedard as he’s going to be concentrating on his health –but– a strike-out per  seems like a fair ceiling.

Daisuke Matsuzaka – Boston Red Sox

In 2007, Dice-K went for 201 strike-outs in 204 IP.  If he manages to go a full-season, of 220-230IP he shouldn’t have a problem hitting 200K.

He will however kill your WHIP, and if he ever decides to stop painting corners his K per 9 is bound to come down.

Ryan Dempster – Chicago Cubs

Something’s fishy about Ryan Dempster, and I can’t put my finger on it.  It’s not like Dempster hasn’t done this before: In 2000, Dempster went for 209K in 226 IP. But then, Bingo-Bango-Bongo, Dempster’s K per 9 slowly fell from 8.31 to 6.59 over the next 2 years.

Then Dempster was moved to reliever/closers role, where he hiked thems K’s back up.  Last year, as a starter Dempster revisited the nice side of 8 K per 9 posting an 8.14K:9.  Which brought him to 187 K’s in 206 Innings.

I’d tend to expect another drop-off from Dempster, and realistically don’t give him a shot at making the 200K club.

Yovani Gallardo – Milwaukee Brewers

He didn’t injure his arm, shoulder or wrist. There’s no reason to expect anything other than a return to form for Gallardo. The problem is, Gallardo only pitched 110 Innings in his Rookie Season of 2007 — so what is a return to form?  He spent a full year soaking in the mental aspects of the game, so he should be more mature than you’d expect from someone who hasn’t even pitched 200 total innings in the bigs.

It’s fair to assume Gallardo will continue to put up at least 8 K per 9 at the very minimum. Bill James and CHONE prodjection models have Gallardo coming in at 9.23-9.25 K per 9.

Gallardo definitely isn’t your standard injury risk, but 200 innings may be a lot to ask of him in his first full season in the majors.

We’re Not There Yet

Josh Beckett – Boston Red Sox (194 K), Brandon Webb – Arizona Diamondbacks(194K), and John Lackey – Anaheim Angels (199K)

None of these fantasy aces have reached 200K’s, ever.  They’ve all come tantalizingly close, though.  Any one of these guys could put together a season of 200K.  You get to choose between whether Beckett gets to 200IP, Webb to 230IP, or Lackey to 225ish.

During the course of this list, I realized that the prevailing thought was that it was more likely for a pitcher to break habit and pitch 200+ innings than it was for a pitcher to raise his K per 9, even half a K.

At this point, I think that’s the opposite of reality.

Let Us Get Crazy: From an Outside Shot to Downright Crazy.

This is where I get to throw out some ridiculous names, and hope for the best.  While some of the names may not be completely off the wall, they’ll do.

Outside Shot:

Ted Lilly – Chicago Cubs: His K per 9 always seems to flutter in the high-7′s or low-8′s.  He’s obviously got a shot at eclipsing 200K. Verdict: No.

Aaron Harang – Cincinnati Reds: 216 K’s in 2006, 217 K’s in 2007, Mad Suckage to the tune of 153K in 2008.  K per 9 bottomed out at about 7.5 last year, a bounce back year? What ever happened to Harang?. Verdict: Close, Real Close. But No.

Ubaldo Jiminez – Colorado Rockies: One of the hardest tossers of the bunch, but pitching at Coors really kills.  Regardless, he still puts up a high 7′s K per 9 so he does have a shot.  Verdict: O/U 199K.

David Price – Tampa Bay Rays: There’s no way in hell he gets the Innings needed but a 7.5-8K per 9 certainly is attainable for this over-hyped future stud. Verdict: BUZZZ, No.

Joba Chamberlain – New York Yankees: Joba’s struck out 10.5 batters per nine innings last year, and while it’s bound to come down if he switches to a full time starter; you’re still looking at a strike-out per inning.  The only question here is, how will Joba be used? The Yankees have improved across the board, and at this point — I dont really consider Joba in the equation.  It’s not “How will Joba do in Relief vs. Starting?”, the question is “Will we get more value from Phil Hughes starting and Joba in the pen, than we will with Joba starting and Hughes in the Pen?”

I tend to think that Hughes should start, and Joba dominate the ass-end of the ballgame, at least to start.  Someone on that Yankees staff is going to get hurt, and I doubt they’ll have all four guys (Sabathia, Burnett, HGH-Andy, and Chairman-Wang) healthy at one time.

Joba notches 170 IP, which’ll put him close but no cigar. Actually, lets say 171 IP to make the math easier:  171IP = 19 Games (per 9s) * 9 K per 9 = 171 strike-outs (or times 10 = 190 K)

Close, but no cigar.  If Joba starts and finishes with a starting gig, it’ll be wise to assume somewhere in the region of 8.75-9 K per 9.  So, with a strike-out per inning pitched, you can do the math. 200IP = 200K. Verdict: If the Yankees rotation can stay somewhat healthy, The Fail.  Otherwise, the success

Ricky Nolasco – Florida Marlins

Nolasco put up some great late-season numbers last year, and he goes into 2009 as everyone’s favourite Sleeper at the starting pitcher position.

I like Nolasco’s 7.88 K’s per 9, but based on his Minor League numbers I’d expect a small dip.  Even at 7.5 K per 9, Nolasco is the kind of pitcher that can eat enough innings to spit out 200K. Verdict: One of the best sleepers out there, but not a 200K man.

Time To Inhale Some Crack Cocaine…

Chris Young – San Diego Padres: There’s absolutely no piece of imperical data that shows Chris Young can come close to 200IP.  The man does bring the nasty though, and with somewhere on the nice side of 8 K per 9, he doesn’t have to go for crazy Innings — just get by 200IP. Verdict: I’m buying it.

John Maine – New York Mets: Not sure about this one, and I dont particularly feel like predicting a return to 8.48 K per 9 for Maine to go along with 215IP. Verdict: Fail.

Wandy Rodriguez – Houston Astros: Wandy didn’t even get to 150 innings pitched last year, but he made ‘em count.  Posting an 8.58 K per 9 opens eyes, and while it might be a bit much to ask of Wandy to go for 200K — he is a nice little sleeper going into 2009. He’s also got a great name, and crazy-awesome home/road splits. Verdict: Better Pitcher in 2009, Worse K to 9 Ratio.

Oliver Perez – New York Mets: In 2004, Perez had one of the best sliders in the game and he posted darn-near 240K. Then Perez turned on the suck-switch, and the free-fall began. Over the last two years, Perez has went for 8.85 and 8.35 K per nine but hasn’t had the IP to top the 200K mark. If Perez can manage himself 220 IP, he’ll come darn close to 200K. Verdict: 185K’s isn’t 200.

Randy Johnson – San Francisco Giants: There’s no way the Big Unit stays healthy. Other than that, he switched to a lovely park, and posted a 8.46 K per 9 last year. That’s higher than young-guns like Kershaw, Cueto, Parra, Greinke. Verdict: No, Not Possible. Dagger!

Jonathan O. Sanchez – San Francisco Giants: The ERA looks ugly, but the K per 9 is gorgeous.  Right now Sanchez sits as the Giants’ fifth starter, and 200 IP is a bit of a longshot but…

Rich Hill – Baltimore Orioles: Really, it could seriously happen. The whole 8 BB per 9 last year is sort of AWFUL, but he’s got the K potential.  In 2006, and 2007, Hill went for 8.15 and 8.45 respectively.

Francisco Liriano – Minnesota Twins: Even after Tommy John Surgery, Liriano is still coming darn close to a strike-out per.  He’s no longer that 12K per 9 guy, and his slider no longer has the bite but he’s still got a darn good shot if he can get to 200 IP. Verdict: Naw..Well Maybe..Close..Okay, Sure.

Now, The List (in no particular order).

• Johan Santana
• Tim Lincecum
• Chad Billingsley
• Jake Peavy
• Javier Vazquez
• Felix Hernandez
• Zach Greinke
• Erik Bedard
• Chris Young (ouch)
• Yovanni Gallardo
• Danny Haren

Obviously guys like Sabathia and Burnett, even Harden have a better shot at touching 200K’s than Chris Young or Erik Bedard.

Chris Young Photo Courtesy Of SD Dirk / Flickr

Javier Vazquez

Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers in 2009: Top 100 (11-30)

Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009: Eleven to Thirty.

#11 John Lackey – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 11-9, 141K, 3.81ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.25 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130K, 7.16 K:9, 3.25 K:BB

Bill James isn’t kind to John Lackey, and his predictions seem a bit low to me. Lackey has a good chance to raise his K:9 to at least 8 or 9 which combined with 200-220 IP should lead to a 200K season.

His other ratios have continued to improve throughout his career, so expecting a season of 8K per 9, and 2BB per nine seems about right. Along with a decent WHIP of 1.20ish, and a decent ERA.

He put up an ERA of 3.01 in 2007, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops it below 3.00 after a full year of recovery from his strained bicep issue of 2008.

This list is obviously more about value than actual draft position. John Lackey may not be drafted as the 11th best pitcher — but he’ll more than likely produce at this level. I’m not sure how long you can wait on Lackey as he looks to be bouncing up draft boards.

#12 Felix Hernandez – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 11-12, 188K, 3.86ERA, 1.35WHIP, 8.25 K:9

2008: 9 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 175K, 7.85 K:9, 2.19 K:BB

I find it hard to believe that Hernandez will settle into a career WHIP of 1.35-1.40. In 2008, he walked 3.59 batters per nine innings which is up from 2.51 the year before.

Hernandez has some of the best stuff in the league, and last year was just a mess for the entire Seattle organization. It’s not unthinkable that Hernandez will drop his walks back down to the mid-to-low twos.

If Hernandez can stop walking batters, he’ll become the dominant pitcher that everyone’s been waiting for. A decrease in BB would probably result in a drop in ERA, and obviously WHIP.

An ERA of 3.35, and a WHIP of under 1.30 is a good possibility. I think this is the year Hernandez really puts it together and capitalizes on his unbelievable talent.

There’s obviously a good amount of risk here, but pitching at Safeco eliminates a chunk of that risk. It’s somewhat worrisome to see his Line Drive percentage rising over the past few years.

#13 Scott Kazmir – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 10-8, 177K, 3.80ERA, 1.35WHIP, 9.83 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 166K, 9.81 K:9, 2.37 K:BB

Once again, Kazmir comes with a bit of risk. Kazmir is a guy that can put up almost 10K per 9, along with a 1.25ish WHIP. However, expecting a full 220 innings from him is a bit of a reach.

Currently, I’m banking on about 200 IP from Kazmir in 2009. As with Lincecum is just scary to see such a small guy throw the ball 90+ MPH. Kazmir also has a dirty slider to go with his 92mph heat.

As with Sabathia, Halladay and Beckett, I’m somewhat worried about AL East Pitchers. The offenses are now so stacked that there isn’t a break in the schedule.

Who knows how many wins Kazmir will garner, but I expect a pretty solid 2009 season from Scott Kazmir.

#14 Zack Greinke – SP – KC Royals

Bill James Prediction: 12-10, 156K, 3.98ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.24 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 183K, 8.14 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

I’m about as high on Zack Greinke as one can get. Hell, I”ll finance Greinke’s depression meds if he ever falls back off the wagon.

When Greinke came into the league, he was supposed to be the next big thing — then he shat the bed, developed social anxiety, and just stopped caring.

Now, Greinke is back and fulfilling his potential. If anyone comes out of nowhere to post a 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 220 Ks — It’s Zack Greinke.

Greinke has four damn good pitches, with his fastball pushing 94-95ish on a good day. He has amazing control, and I have a pretty big man crush on him.

One of my favourite websites, The Hardball Times, has a great article on Greinke. Apparently I’m not the only one in love with Greinke.

Realistically, I’d be willing to rank Greinke as high as 9th on this list if he starts shooting up expert charts. I’d have absolutely no problem trading Zack Greinke for Josh Beckett straight up. He’ll give you a good return on investment, wherever he’s drafted.

#15 Cliff Lee – SP – CLE Indians

Bill James Prediction: 14-9, 146K, 3.90ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.77 K:9

2008: 22 W, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170K, 6.85 K:9, 5.00 K:BB

I’m not a Cliff Lee fan, but I’m not sure how much further I can drop him after his 2008 Cy Young season. Who knows what kind of win totals Lee will put up in 2009, but Cleveland still has a good bullpen that’s been bolstered by the acquisition of Kerry Wood.

I still think Lee is risky, though. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him drop a 4.00 ERA on his owners. Lee’s always put up solid WHIP numbers, but when you examine last year in detail it just doesn’t seem sustainable.

Lee allowed less than half a HR per 9 and dropped his BB per 9 down to 1.37 after averaging around 1+ HR/9 and somewhere between 2.5 and 4 walks per 9.

Cliff Lee may have a Cy Young award to his credit, but he’s as risky as anyone. Bill James has as good of a guestimate as anyone, so I’ll go with that. If Lee does put up those numbers though, he doesn’t deserve to be drafted this high. Lee’s probably going to get drafted too high based on name recognition anyways, so none of this even matters at 15th overall.

#16 Chad Billingsley – SP – LA Dodgers

Bill James Prediction: 12-9, 189K, 3.69ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.81 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 201K, 9.03 K:9, 2.49 K:BB

Chad Billingsley is another sexy strike out guy that carries at least a bit of risk with him. As with Felix Hernandez, Billingsley’s risk is minimized by the ballpark he pitches in.

Generally, I’d sacrafice a bit of talent for a pitcher-friendly park or a weak schedule. Billingsley has all three. The teams in the NL west aren’t great. Most of the parks out there are extreme pitchers parks (SD, LA, SF) and Billingsley has crazy potential.

On the other hand, Billinglsey has some serious control issues. Billingsley can barely keep his walks per nine on the right side of 4.00 let alone 3.00.

Billingsley isn’t going to have a stellar WHIP because of this, and you’re probably going to be stuck with a 1.30, if you’re lucky.

Billingsley does make up for it with his crazy K:9 numbers, striking out more than a batter an inning which keeps his K:BB ratio at a respectable 2.50.

Billinglsey should improve this year, and I’d imagine his main focus would be control.

#16 Ricky Nolasco – SP – FLA Marlins

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 176K, 3.98ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.73 K:9

2008: 15 W, 3.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 186K, 8.06 K:9, 4.51 K:BB

I’m torn on Ricky Nolasco: There’s a lot of upside, but there’s a huge amount of risk.

There’s really no data to go off of, and if you draft him you’re more than likely in for a bumpy ride / sophomore slump. However, he put up great numbers, in what was essentially his first full season in the majors.

He put up such great ratios last year, and he pitches in such a pitchers park that he should be worth the cash-money. While I personally wouldn’t draft him in front of the next few guys he does have the potential to finish here with even the slightest increase in stats.

He’ll be much cheaper than the big name guys like Burnett, Lester, Vazquez and even Volquez.

At this point it becomes quite difficult to get high strikeout and low whip pitchers and his finish to the 2008 season is just too hard to look past.

#18 James Shields – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 14-10, 178K, 3.65ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.56 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160K, 6.70 K:9, 4.00 K:BB

Shields isn’t sexy and it’s iffy for him to pass 200K, but he should put up a stellar WHIP and ERA.

Some fantasy players end up falling in love with strikeouts and don’t pay nearly enough attention to a .10 decrease in WHIP or ERA. It’s easy to see the difference between 220 Ks and 190 but it’s a bit more difficult to wrap your head around the difference between a 1.35 and 1.19 WHIP.

It’ll be interesting to see whether 2008′s decrease in K rate is a permanent drop or just a temporary abberation. If Shields keeps his K:9 above 7.5 he’ll put up some great stats.

Shields stands out due to his gaudy K:BB ratio: 4.00K:BB is a great ratio for someone who strikes out as many batters as Shields does.

#19 Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-8, 174K, 3.58ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.51 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154K, 8.27 K:9, 1.64 K:BB

Dice-K is the Tracy McGrady of fantasy baseball. Just as McGrady will put up 20pts and 10 rebounds on 6-23 shooting; Dice-K will go and put up a 2.90 ERA while walking 5 batters per nine innings.

Each and every one of Dice-K’s stats lead you to believe that he’s primed for an off-year. A walk rate of 5.05 per 9, a BABIP of .267, a Left on Base percentage of 80.6% and a HR/FB ratio of 6.1 percent.

However, you get the feeling that if Dice-K stops nibbling on the corners and just pitches using his vast reservoir he’ll be just fine. He probably wont repeat his stellar 2008 season, as he was incredibly lucky, but he should be fine.

All of this is probably pointless considering that some fool will draft Dice-K far earlier than warranted.

#20 Francisco Liriano – SP – MIN Twins

Bill James Prediction: 11-8, 171K, 3.62ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.27 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 57K, 7.93 K:9, 2.09 K:BB

I’m making a habit of ending each list with a massive injury risk.

Liriano missed 2007 with Tommy John surgery after an incredible 2006 in which he posted a 2.16 earned run average, a 1.00 walks/hits per innings pitched, and a remarkable 10.71 strikeouts per 9 in 28 games and 121 innings.

In 2008, not quite a full year removed from TJ surgery, Liriano started the season struggling mightily. After a minor league rehab stint, Liriano came back and showed flashes of his previous self.

There’s reason for concern as well as optimism with Liriano going forward. Last year, he shied away from using his devastating slider too much in order to protect his elbow. Now two years removed from surgery, he’ll hopefully be back to normal but you should keep an eye on his velocity and pitch selection to know for sure.

In 2005 and 2006 Liriano threw his fastball about 45% of the time at around 95 MPH. In his first year back, he threw it more (54%) at a lower velocity (91MPH)

To preserve his elbow he threw his slider 26% of the time at 84MPH in 2008 which is much less than the 37% and 87MPH he threw in the previous two years.

With Liriano, it comes down to velocity and pitch selection. You’ll be able to tell quite early in spring training whether or not he has it this year. Liriano is still a great pitcher when he throws his FB at 91 and his slider at 84 — but he’s not the 10+ K per nine guy, who’ll win you a fantasy league.

#21 Yovani Gallardo – SP – MIL Brewers

Bill James Prediction: 13-9, 141K, 3.61ERA, 1.30WHIP, 9.23 K:9

2008: 0 W, 1.88 ERA, 1.25WHIP, 20K, 7.50 K:9, 2.50 K:BB

Gallardo was primed for a break-out 2008 season, and then his ACL exploded while covering first base. Unlike just about every other sport, an ACL injury isn’t a career changing injury for a starting pitcher. Gallardo actually stayed in the game and recorded five outs after tearing his knee up.

Gallardo managed to come back from knee surgery to pitch seven innings in the 2008 playoffs.

With that said, Gallardo has buckets of talent and should come close to a strikeout per inning. He should be fully healthy by spring training, and more importantly regained complete faith in his knee. You’d have to imagine he’d probably improve on his K and BB numbers.

He’s one of the top young pitchers in the game and Bill James and CHONE have him at 9.30 K per nine, while MARCEL has him at 8K:9IP.

There’s obviously some risk here, as Gallardo has only pitched 134 innings in the show. With such a small sample size, anything could potentially happen. Gallardo’s been around for what seems like a while, but he’s still only going to be 23 when the season rolls around.

There is the potential that Gallardo starts to get too much fantasy hype rolling into the 2009 season. Anything higher than 18th or 19th is really just too high for Gallardo. He has the talent to be a top 10 pitcher, but he also comes with a bunch of risk. Liriano probably has a bit more talent, along with a bit more injury risk than Gallardo. Gallardo’s risk is probably composed of 25% injury and 75% lack of data.

#22 Ervin Santana – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 177K, 3.90ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.59 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.12WHIP, 214K, 8.79 K:9, 4.55 K:BB

Santana put up some great numbers last year, as he finally put everything together. It all seems to come down to the number of batters walked, and essentially BB:9.

Santana walked fewer batters in 2008 (47) than in 2007 (58) while pitching 70 more innings. His BB:9 went from 3.5 in 2007 to under 2.0 in 2008.

I’m not sure where this came from, other than the fact he was getting a 67% first strike, and getting batters to swing 32 percent of the time at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%).

It looks like Santana should be able to maintain his success, but he’s 26 yet somehow managed to add a good chunk of velocity across the board. I’m not certain how easy it is to add velocity after a certain age, but the usage of performance enhancing drugs definitely crossed my mind. Increased work ethic would probably be a better way to explain the increase in velocity, but its hard to ignore PEDs as a possibility in this day and age.

Just for the record, his Fastball the past 4 years: 93.4mph, 93.1mph, 92.2mph, 94.4mph.

His Slider, same period: 81.0mph, 80.9mph, 81.0mph, 83.9mph.

#23 Ben Sheets – SP – Free Agent

Bill James Prediction: 13-8, 159K, 3.39ERA, 1.15WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.15WHIP, 158K, 7.17 K:9, 3.36 K:BB

SURGERY FOR MR SHEETS.  CHECK BACK in the DOG DAYS!

I’m not sure where Ben Sheets is going to go, nor am I sure if he’ll stay healthy enough in 2009 to pitch 200 innings.

There’s a lot of possibilities with Ben Sheets though, and you’ll probably want to cash in on it. Sheets will more than likely go to a contender, and be assured at least a few wins throughout the season.

As with many of the elite pitchers, drafting Ben Sheets is essentially a referendum on whether or not he’ll stay healthy.

Since Sheet’s unbelievable 2004, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. His 2004 season was jaw dropping, as he posted a 2.70 ERA to go with 264 strikeouts. In 2008 he almost reached 200 innings, but his K numbers dropped drastically.

From a high of 10K per nine in 2004, Sheets has slowly declined to his 2008 total of 7.17K per nine. Sheets still has the talent to put up a K per IP, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the decline continues.

Hopefully Sheets can bounce his K rate up to at least 8K per 9, and he’ll be golden. Keep an eye on where Sheets goes this off-season.

#24 Matt Cain – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 192K, 3.57ERA, 1.30WHIP, 8.11 K:9

2008: 8 W, 3.76 ERA, 1.36WHIP, 186K, 7.69 K:9, 2.04 K:BB

Matt Cain started out 2008, terribly — awful, Painful.

He managed to salvage his season with some stellar 10, and 11 K performances. He still sprinkled in some stat lines of 5ER in 6IP, but all and all he ended the season very well.

Cain’s a power pitcher, and he’s built like a brick shit-house — so injuries aren’t a concern.

He pitches in the NL west and the Giants have a great stadium, and a half decent defense. Cain’s fastball tops out around 95, and he’ll throw 3 other pitches at you. All four of his pitches can be used as strike-out pitches.

Cain should keep his K:9 somewhere around 8, and pitch 200 IP easily.

Cain’s a pretty safe bet, with some upside which is hard to come by. Most of the pitchers with room for improvement and upside are risky as fuck. Cain’s going to give you some solid innings, and some great strikeout numbers.

#25 Erik Bedard – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 5-5, 86K, 3.72ERA, 1.31WHIP, 8.7 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 73K, 8 K:9, 1.95 K:BB

What a 2008 Bedard had. An injury plagued, sporadically dominant, sporadically awful season had the Seattle media out for Bedard’s throat.

Bedard was traded for by Seattle idiot-GM, Bill Bavasi, who gave up roughly seven arms and two legs to get him ( Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler)

Bedard is one hell of a pitcher though: The question is whether or not he’ll actually want to pitch for Seattle. The media hates him, everyone in Seattle looks back at his acquisition as stooopid, and he’s injury plagued.

If Bedard wants to put up 220 innings and 200K’s, he will. Otherwise, he’s just going to sit out with every ache and pain and pitch less than 100 innings again.

The Mariners aren’t even sure what they want to do with Bedard going forward. There’s no way they can realistically get anything solid for him in a trade and unless he has a great year, he’s only going to garner Type-B compensation when he hits the Free Agent Market.

So, I think Bedard pitches crazy-awesome this year and leaves to further screw over the Mariners.

Go Canada.

#26 A.J. Burnett – SP – NY Yankees

Bill James Prediction: 14-11, 218K, 3.62ERA, 1.28WHIP, 8.76 K:9

2008: 18 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 231K, 9.35 K:9, 2.69 K:BB

A.J. Burnett is a top 12 pitcher if he stays healthy, which he more than likely do now that he’s a Yankee.

I’m a Blue Jays fan, and like all Jays fans; I think A.J Burnett is a douche-bag. Of course everyone understands that you gotta make the cheddar but A.J. never seemed to want to be in Toronto.

A.J. Burnett does have some of the nastiest stuff in the majors, and his curveball is argueably the best in the league. He’s been plagued with injuries throughout his entire career in Florida and Toronto.

At some point, I’ll move AJ up to his rightful place among the top 20 pitchers but I just have trouble believing A.J. will stay healthy let alone duplicate his stellar numbers from last year.

Hopefully Mr. Burnett crumbles under the pressure of New York, or decides to once again stop trying because he’s made his money.

#27 Javier Vazquez – SP – ATL Braves

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 195K, 3.80ERA, 1.24WHIP, 8.20 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 200K, 8.64 K:9, 3.28 K:BB

The Braves acquired Javier Vazquez late last year, when their talks with the Padres f or Jake Peavy fell through.

Vazquez is probably going to give you some of the best value in the 2009 draft. He’s got all the talent in the world, and has put up terrific ratios, but for some screwy reason always seems to put up 4.00+ ERA numbers.

With Vazquez’s return to the NL, you can assume that his already great 8.5ish K:9 is going to rise a wee lil’ bit. Vazquez striking out a batter an inning is not out of the realm of possibility.

Vazquez at 33 is starting to get up there in age, but over the last 4 years h is velocity hasn’t declined even a smidge. He’s still topping out on his fastball at around 94-95, slider 84mph, and curve about 74mph.

Last year Vazquez put up a stupid-silly .328 BABIP, and you’d have to assume that’d regress to career averages + the mean. Bill James properly predicts a BABIP of about .310.

Vazquez also does not get injured: The man keeps trucking along posting 200IP seasons.

All told, you should expect one hell of a season from Javier Vazquez and should draft him as high as 15th, if you’re risk-adverse.

#28 Edinson Volquez – SP – CIN Reds

Bill James Prediction: 11-11,191K, 4.08ERA, 1.41WHIP, 8.95 K:9

2008: 17 W, 3.24 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 206K, 9.45 K:9, 2.22 K:BB

Volquez has always had a solid repitoire of pitches, and a big boy fastball (94-95MPH). Last year came as a complete surprise however. Volquez had been regularly awful in Texas for the past 2 or 3 years.

He put up impressive 2008 pre-season numbers, and showed improved control — but pre-season numbers are generally deceitful.

Volquez pitches in the Great American Bandbox, and there’s no way in hell he’s going to put up similiar numbers. After the all-star break last year, Volquez put up a 4.60 ERA and gave up 9 HR which was a drastic increase from his first half stats.

He still managed to put up an incredibly respectable 3.24 ERA, but that’s going to balloon. His HR/FB ratio is definitely going to go up from 8, and his numbers will suffer.

#29 Carlos Zambrano – SP – CHI CUBS

Bill James Prediction: 13-9,163K, 3.56ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.48 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.29WHIP, 130K, 6.20 K:9, 1.81 K:BB

There’s no way Zambrano can live with himself after posting 6.20 strike outs per nine. In 2008, Zambrano became a bitch-ass soft-tosser rather than a burly 250lb power pitcher.

He decreased his BB / 9 down 3.43 after two years of 4.80 and 4.34BB per nine. While Zambrano’s increased control is reminiscent of his amazing 2004 & 2005 numbers, his strike out rate took a major hit.

Zambrano is pretty much useless if he’s not putting up at least 7.50K per 9, and I obviously expect a return to that. If Zambrano isn’t putting up at least a 2.00 K to BB ratio, he’s pretty much useless other than his contributions to Wins.

Wrigley is a half decent park to pitch in, until the winds start blowing out.

All and all, Zambrano is capable of putting up 200+ K’s and he’s got the frame to stay healthy. He’ll generally be around league average in WHIP, but he should be up solid win totals as Chicago is once again favoured to win the central.

#30 Jon Lester – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-11,168K, 4.02ERA, 1.40WHIP, 7.13 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.21 ERA, 1.27WHIP, 152K, 6.50 K:9, 2.30 K:BB

If Lester puts up similiar numbers to last year, there’s a couple pitchers that make more sense at this spot (Oswalt, Lilly, Garza).

However, Lester is a young guy who’s bound to improve. While Lester’s K per 9 decreased in 2008, he improved his control quite a bit, lowering his BB:9 from 4.43 to 2.82.

Pitching for Boston affords Lester a good chance at 20 Wins, and he’s Boston’s only reliable lefty. Last year, Lester was probably Boston’s best pitcher and while his dominance doesn’t transfer particularly well into the fantasy world; he’s primed for a break out year.

Lester’s a fairly safe bet, with decent potential. 200 strikeouts is probably a bit of a reach for Lester, but 18 Wins, 1.25WHIP, 3.25 ERA and 180K’s isn’t unreasonable. Lester will help you in all categories without hurting you in any one category.

Photo Of Liriano: Aturkus / Flickr