James Loney

Top First Basemen In Keeper Dynasty League

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30′s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30′s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30′s to low-40′s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.

James Loney

Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?

I have this uncontrollable fixation with statistics that some may refer to as obsessive compulsive disorder, but others may deem awesome and totally understandable. My better half thankfully just writes it off as shit she’ll never be able to change.  I check the logs of this site fairly often, and while this site is still in it’s infancy, it pulls in enough search engine traffic to keep me busy.

Today, someone asked google the question: “Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?”

Apparently, you’re directed here for the answer after obvious stops at thebaseballcube.com and crookedpitch.com.

So Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?

First off, Loney is coming off the board at around the 165th pick and the 16th first baseman (according to ESPN Live Draft ADP.)

I think we can all agree that Loney’s not touching the top-8 this year:  Pujols, Cabrera, Texiera, Howard, Berkman, Fielder, Morneau, Gonzalez.

Then begins the mish-mash of first basemen, lead by none other than Loney’s best career path: Derrek Lee.  This next group consists of Lee, Pena, Votto, Delgado, Jackson, LaRoche, Sandoval.  Looking at this group of hitters, the obvious answer to why Loney’s ranking so low is his lack of power.  Let’s break it down though, starting with Loney himself:

2008 Loney: 66 RUN / 13 HR / 90 RBI / .289 AVG / 7 SB

Batting Order: Loney could bat 4th, 5th, or 6th.  The Dodgers lost the dead weight of Kent, and Andruw Jones while bringing in Orlando Hudson. Loney will now have a full season of Manny, Furcal and Blake, as well.

The line-up is improved from front to back, and the important part is that while Loney had a worse second half, his counting stats actually increased.  Worse Batting Average, On-Base-Percentage, and Slugging Percentage somehow meant more RBI and more HR.  The runs weren’t there, which is the one thing that we should have expected.

You should expect an increase in RBI and R in this line-up, which starts to push Loney awfully close to the 100RBI mark.

Power: Loney will eventually come in with 25-HR power, the question is when.  In 2007, Loney didn’t even get to 400AB and managed to hit 15 HR.  In 2008, Loney hit 13 HR all year! in 600AB!

His isolated power dropped, his slugging percentage dropped, and his on-base percentage dropped.  Every stat you could possibly imagine dropped from 2007 to 2008.

I am however a firm believer in the motto: “Once you show something, you own it”.  Loney showed he had 20-25HR power in his rookie year, and now he owns it.  It’ll be at least 2 or 3 seasons before I strip him of that tag.

In addition to the increase in Runs and RBI, I’d expect 20 HR out of the big fella.

Contact: Loney’s a legitimate .300 hitter, and shouldn’t have to sacrafice his average to hit more dingers.  He wont post the ridiculous .330 again, unless he starts gettin’ real lucky.

Loney’s Line: 75R/19-20HR/95RBI/.300AVG/7SB

Loney vs. Sandoval

Have you seen Pablo Sandoval’s BABIP over the past couple years?  Look at him, he’s not someone who posts .387 (A+), .347 (AA), .367 (MLB) BABIPs at each level in 2008. While Sandoval is a very popular sleeper, he doesn’t walk and slugging .500 again is asking a lot.  Loney’s in a better line-up with more RBI opportunities.

Loney vs. LaRoche

It seems like LaRoche should be hitting more Home Runs, right?  He’s only pegged for somewhere in the neighbourhood of 25HR on the year.  You’re taking Loney even if you think he only hits 15 HR.  Loney’s batting average should be at least .290 to LaRoche’s .270, and he’ll post noticeably better R and RBI totals.  While you can’t bank on Loney running wild, you’re also probably getting at least 5 or 6 more stolen bases out of him.  Even a .20pt average, 5 runs, 5 Rbi, 5 SB make up for the difference in 6 or 7 HR.  These are also also very conservative estimates of Loney.

Loney vs. Jackson

They’ll both hit between 15-20HR and they’ll both hit around .300.  Looking at Jackson’s 10 stolen bases compared to Loney’s 7 SB, is probably a wash so it comes down to R and RBI.  Jackson hasn’t proven he’s a run producer, and I tend to think that Loney’s RBI+RUN will best whatever Jackson can put up.

These two you can compare probably the easiest of the bunch, as they’re essentially the same type of player. The Diamondbacks have a capable replacement to steal at-bats in Chad Tracy; assuming Eric Byrnes eventually wiggles his way back into the line-up.  The only thing Jackson has going for him is his multi-position eligibility.

Loney vs. Delgado

Finally we’re getting to the tough comparisons.  Delgado is going to knock out 30HR, and hits in a very solid line-up. He’ll occupy a better spot in the line-up as well.  So we’re looking at at least 2, with a very good shot at 3, categories Delgado will take Loney in.

However, Delgado is going to hit about .260 to .270, and won’t steal a base.

Even if you consider Loney dominating those two cataegories, it’s still a fairly close race.  Then you take into account Delgado is getting very old, and very close to the point where great ball players just fall off the edge.

Loney vs. Votto

This is where the Loney fun stops.  I can’t under any circumstances place Loney ahead of Joey Votto.  Loney’s speed is negated, Loney’s average is negated and Loney’s age is negated.  Both are young, and Votto plays in a better park which makes up for the slightly worse line-up.

Loney vs. Pena

Pena hit .247 last year with 31HR. Depending on your league, that average starts getting to the point where it’s *too* low for a paltry 30 HR.  The line-ups are fairly similar, and Pena strikes out a tonne.  Pena also walks a good bit, which makes his average slightly less harmful.

Are 15 HR worth a .50 pt batting average dip, and the 7 or 8 steals Loney brings to the table? It really depends on your league.  If all goes well for Loney, this is a definite push.

Loney vs. Lee

This is the most interesting of the bunch.  If Loney continues to mature, he’ll post Derrek Lee’s 2008 season: 93R/20HR/90RBI/.291AVG/8SB

This is what owners thought Loney would do last year.

Lee’s on the downside of his career, and you should probably expect a decline in his SB numbers at the very least.  Loney on the other hand is just starting to enter his prime.

Loney vs. The Conclusion

After looking through this, Joey Votto is realistically the only player I couldn’t go into a draft saying would be outperformed by James Loney.

All of the other guys on this list, could potentially and quite easily, be outperformed by Loney.  Loney’s just starting to come into his prime, as he’ll turn 25 about halfway through the season.  He’s still got a lot of maturing to endure, but he could put up very solid numbers this year.

So Why Is Loney Ranked So Low? People become fixated with his run total, and lack of power from the first base position.  Loney will improve upon his 66 Runs scored, even if he doesn’t mature as a player.  Maybe Matt Kemp Matures. Maybe Russell Martin becomes the best fantasy catcher out there. Andre Ethier could easily become a force this year.  Loney’s Run numbers should take care of themselves.

His power on the other hand is a different story.  You should be concerned that your first baseman may only hit 13 HR. Loney hasn’t shown true HR power at any point in his career, even in the minors.  He has shown power though, and he could potentially slug at a .500 clip again. Young players often display doubles power before they break out and start smash-killing the ball.

20 HR isn’t out of the question, and he could easily best that number.

I actually enjoyed this, and hopefully I’ll get some other googlized questions.

James Loney

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining First Basemen.

As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago.  I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.

Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:

POS	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	Mixed $	AL/NL $	MOV
1	2	Albert Pujols	STL	1B	36	37
Here we have the no-brainer to end all no-brainers. I can’t see him posting another season with such a ridiculous BA though. Still worth every penny of the 35-40 Dollars you spend on him, though.
2	7	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B	31	29
Cabrera or Texiera? Who’s the better deal? Whoever falls further, or costs less. Other than that, it’s a toss up.
3	10	Mark Teixeira	NYY	1B	29	27
Texiera’s RUN and RBI totals should be off the charts but his real value comes from his defense. New York Pitchers will be thanking him.
4	13	Lance Berkman	HOU	1B	28	28	down
There will be a decline from last years numbers, the question is “how much?”. The steals just seem to linger, and it’s getting to the point where you can count on Berkman to snag more than his fair share of bags. I think Howard surpasses him.
5	19	Ryan Howard	PHI	1B	24	26	up
Howard is a beast, and last year’s BA was awful. There’s no way he’s that awful again, and he’ll be a steal. The strike-outs are ugly, but don’t count in fantasy. I’ve talked about punting batting average before, and in a competitive league it might make sense to do that if Howard falls into your lap.
6	22	Prince Fielder	MIL	1B	23	25
Fielder is a curious case: All the talent in the world, but hasn’t quite put it together. He’s clearly got the power, but guys ahead of him have to get on base, which is a problem in Milwaukee. There’s a good amount of boom/bust in Milwaukee this year.
7	32	Justin Morneau	MIN	1B	19	25
Morneau gets overrated due to his MVP and HR Derby win, but he’s a solid run producer. If Mauer is out, Morneau takes a huge hit – but with an improving Minny offense, it’d be wise to expect a slight increase in 2008′s numbers for Morneau.
8	39	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	3B/1B	16	23
In my books, Youk should have won MVP last year. The man was a cog, both offensively and defensively. While the scorekeepers were kind to Kevin, he is a gold-glove callibre first baseman.
9	55	Derrek Lee	CHC	1B	13	21	down
Lee’s the first pick I really disagree with. He’s getting old, has lost the speed that made him special, and is a long ways away from his golden power years. He’s still a beast when healthy, but at this point there’s a lot more value out there.
10	57	Adrian Gonzalez	SD	1B	13	21	up
Adrian Gonzalez is that value. I’d have no problem with someone ranking Gonzalez a full tier ahead of where he sits, in Youkilis territory. San Diego doesn’t have a great ballclub, nor do they have a great park but…but…but…half of his games are on the road.
11	67	Chris Davis	TEX	3B/1B	12	21	down
Davis will start incredibly hot, and I’ll get emails telling me I’m retarded for saying he’s ranked far too high but Davis is too high here. Way too high. His strike-out rate is ridiculous, and while his SLG percentage makes up for a lot of it – he’s still young and this is going to be an up and down year. If he can prove that he’s a productive high-K guy like Ryan Howard, then I’ll buy it. But for now, drop, drop, drop.
12	74	Carlos Pena	TAM	1B	11	19	up
Pena’s a steal, and while I think the Rays over-achieved last year – Pena wasn’t one of them. His 31 HR was a major decline from 2007′s 46 dingers. The batting average will never be there, but he’ll top the .247 he put up last year. Pena’s entire career has been a roller-coaster ride.
13	80	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	10	19	up
As a Canadian, I love me some Joey Votto. Votto has been having a great camp, and had an amazing stint, however brief, at the WBC. Originally down on Votto, I think he outperforms Chris Davis by a hair.
14	85	Garrett Atkins	COL	3B/1B	9	18
I’m not a huge Garrett Atkins fan, but he puts up numbers. If you’re drafting Atkins, you’re probably taking him as your third baseman, or corner infielder. He’ll put up very solid power numbers, to go along with a very solid .300 BA. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atkins get closer to 30HR than his projected low-20′s.
15	119	Conor Jackson	ARI	1B/OF	7	17
Speaking of a power-outage at first base, here’s Conor Jackson. He’s an unconventional first baseman, in that he’ll help you in the R & AVG category rather than RBI and HR. Right now he’s set to be playing left-field, with Chad Tracy manning first but if Byrnes returns to form – Jackson will return to first.
16	138	Adam LaRoche	PIT	1B	6	16
…and now the polar opposite of Conor Jackson, Adam LaRoche. LaRoche is a notorious slow-starter, but I’m expecting bigger things this year. If he comes into camp ready to play, he’ll top 30 HR easily. He’s a pure power hitter and he’s improved his average from awful to respectable.
17	140	Carlos Delgado	NYM	1B	5	15
Carlos Delgado is old and boring, but he’ll produce. I’m not sure how many games he’ll get in, but planning for injury always comes back to bite you in the ass. If the robots say Carlos is going to hit 30HR and drive in 100 runs, who am I to argue. The batting average is always the first to go though, and maybe you should expect something in the .260-.265 range.
18	151	Pablo Sandoval	SF	1B	5	14	down
Sandoval hammered the ball last year, and like Atkins, you’ll probably be playing Pablo as your third baseman. However, he’s not a terrible option at first. His SLG percentage in limited action last year was almost .500. His BABIP was a smidgen high, so expect regression but Pablo can ball. His miniscule walk rate is concerning however. I’m not quite as high on Sandoval as some others.
19	154	James Loney	LAD	1B	4	14	up
Loney is Conor Jackson v2.0. When you look at Loney, you figure he’s gotta develop power at some point, but it’s proving to be quite the chore for James. My projection for last year was 20HR and a .300 AVG, and it’ll be the same thing this year.
20	162	Paul Konerko	CHW	1B	4	15	down
Even if Paul Konerko exceeds expectations, I’d still rather have anyone else on this list. There is reason to believe though, but I can’t bring myself to say it aloud so: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/konerkos-not-dead-yet
21	189	Jorge Cantu	FLA	3B/1B	2	13
If nothing else, Florida will be a blast to watch. The line-up is filled with boom or bust free swingers, and Cantu definitely fits that mold. Cantu had a career year last year, and it’s unlikely he’ll repeat but…if Gaby Sanchez or Dallas McPherson fall flat on their face, Cantu will play the full sched. 29 HR is probably out of the question, but anywhere between 20 and 25 seems completely reasonable. The RBI and R numbers should be solid.
22	190	Carlos Guillen	DET	3B/1B	2	13
Another guy you’re not going to play at first, but his versatility escalates his value. Guillen’s been aging well enough, and he’ll always hit for a solid average and score runs. A healthy Carlos Guillen is a steal even if he only hits 15 HR. It’s tough to find 180 RBI + R at this point, especially when you throw in a .290+ AVG
23	261	Casey Kotchman	ATL	1B	$-	11	up
I like the Casey Kotchman, and I like him a lot. He should flourish with a full-time gig in Atlanta. Atlanta’s currently rostering a pretty boring outfield, but the kids infront of Kotchman should get on base. He wont put up crazy power numbers, but he’ll hit ‘em where they aint. Expect solid R & RBI totals. Kotchman is probably the most likely of the bunch to add 10-15 HR to his totals, and leave your opponents scratching their heads.
24	269	Mike Jacobs	KC	1B	$-	10	down
Jacobs is a bit of a downer with the talent KC has waiting in the wings for the first base job. With that said, if you’re punting batting average – Jacobs is the man. If you can tolerate a sub-.250 BA, Jacobs is the man. If you’re in a HR only league, Jacobs is the man. There’s no reason why Jacobs shouldn’t be able to eclipse the 30-HR mark.
25	274	Billy Butler	KC	1B/DH	$-	10
Big-Fat-Billy-Butler did not have a good start to the 2008 campaign. The man is still a professional hitter, and I think the Royals get on base this year. He’ll have plenty-o-chances to knock ‘em in, and score some himself. Good call here, ESPN.
26	282	Todd Helton	COL	1B	$-	9	down
This is where we have to ask ourselves the question of whether or not Todd Helton lost “it”. Everything points to Helton still being a competant .300 hitter, that just had major injury issues in 2008. Helton’s back is shot, and 20 HR looks like his ceiling. Other stats are nice though, it’s painful to take Helton but at some point, you must.
27	286	Lyle Overbay	TOR	1B	$-	9	down
As someone who watched Lyle Overbay on a daily basis, I cannot give a fair opinion on him. He’s awful, though – just incase you were curious.
28	291	Hank Blalock	TEX	3B/1B	$-	9	down
Blalock’s interesting as a third baseman, and boring as a first baseman. Davis appears to have the first base job on lock-down, and Michael Young has the third-base gig. Elvis Andrus and Omar Vizquel are by no means “sure-things” but it looks like Blalock will be manning the DH spot. From the looks of it, he’ll have to share it with David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton or Andruw Jones.
29	292	Casey Blake	LAD	3B/1B	$-	9
Blake’s a solid contributor in a great line-up. He does everything well, but I have him below the next two guys.
30	293	Nick Swisher	NYY	1B/OF	$-	9	up
Swisher has to find a spot to play, but once he does he’ll be unstoppable. Swisher is a high OBP guy, who strikes out a good amount. He was also one of the unluckiest gentlemen in the majors last year. Expect a better batting average, more runs scored, more runs knocked in – Sleeper Supreme.
31	296	Jason Giambi	OAK	1B/DH	$-	9	up
Giambi returns to Oakland, and Oaklands put together a fairly solid team. They may just be the best team in the West. It’ll largely depend on the maturation of their prospect-laden starting staff. Anyways, Giambi should have a full-time gig at First/DH and has show he still has stuff left in the tank. Go ahead and draft him.
32	303	Ryan Garko	CLE	1B	$-	8	up
I’m back on the fence about Garko after feeling like he’d be a sleeper-steal this year. The Indians have been playing him out in left field, and LaPorta is looking solid. Even banking on the fact that Pronk can’t stay healthy, Garko’s job is still in jeopardy with V-Mart and LaPorta breathing down his neck.
33	329	Gaby Sanchez	FLA	1B	$-	7	up
Gaby Sanchez is a sexy rookie, and I’m surprised that ESPN has him all the way down here. Mike Jacobs proved that you can score a lot of runs, and knock in even more in that Florida line-up. If Sanchez is able maintain a job, he’ll be a steal. Especially at 329th overall.
34	336	Chad Tracy	ARI	1B	$-	7	down
Not a fan of Tracy, as I tend to think Eric Byrnes’ giganto contract will force him into a starting gig.
35	385	Chris Duncan	STL	1B/OF	$-	5
Duncan is interesting as we approach 400th overall. Skip Schumaker has been making a smooth enough transition to second base, leaving an outfield spot up for grabs. Smart money was on Colby Rasmus, but if he continues to struggle the Cardinals’ outfield may just be Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick.
36	423	Travis Ishikawa	SF	1B	$-	4
The Giants are begging Ishikawa for production, and the “kid” has impressed so far. I like him slightly less than Sanchez in a terrible Giants offense.
37	426	Nick Johnson	WAS	1B	$-	4
Johnson isn’t going to stay healthy, and most leagues don’t count OBP. In addition to this, the Nats’ first base/outfield situation is a mess. Johnson could be a steal but there’s a lot of risk here.
38	427	Ronnie Belliard	WAS	2B/3B/1B	$-	4
Belliard quietly put up a solid season last year, but I doubt he’ll find a place to play this year. Monitor him if someone goes down.
39	428	Cody Ransom	NYY	1B	$-	6	hrm
Too much depth in New York, but I guess someone has to play third base while A-Roid recovers.
40	434	Kevin Millar	TOR	1B	$-	5
The Jays could have done worse, and why Millar would be here and Overbay all the way up there boggles my mind.
41	479	Jeff Baker	COL	2B/1B	$-	2
He might snag AB once Helton goes down but for now it looks like the infield is full.
42	490	Wilson Betemit	CHW	3B/1B	$-	2
A solid safety net as Josh Fields is as untested as they come.
43	520	Daric Barton	OAK	1B	$-	2	up!
I’m not sure how ESPN got so down on this once-prized-prospect. Barton should produce well above the 2 dollar range.
44	530	Willy Aybar	TAM	3B/1B/DH	$-	1
Playing time is going to be the problem.
45	666	Chris Shelton	SEA	1B	$-	1
Seattle is bad, real bad.
46	729	Rich Aurilia	FA	1B	$-	$-
Seriously?
47	747	Michael Aubrey	CLE	1B	$-	$-
Interesting, but I’m not buying it this year.
48	782	Doug Mientkiewicz	LAD	1B	$-	$-
No Way In Hell.
49	785	John Bowker	SF	1B	$-	$-
This is why the Giants want Travis Ishikawa to succeed.
50	786	Aaron Boone	HOU	1B	$-	$-
Could provide some solid numbers if he finds a place to play.

What’s Missing?

Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year.  If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.

Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy.  Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.

The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel.  Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.

Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam.  Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year.  The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.