J.A. Happy

Gettin’ Lucky, An Article About Pitching, Not Josh Hamilton.

The Deadspin photos of Josh Hamilton are pretty killer, and the shot-glass in the fly trick is A-PLUS in my book but this is an article about pitching.

Who’s Getting Lucky?

Matt Cain (2.44 ERA & 3.92 FIP) — Cain loves to party and he’s got the numbers to show it.  Cain comes in with a .260 BABIP and a ridiculous 0.87 LOB%.

J.A. Happ (2.74 ERA & 4.01 FIP) — For some reason the Blue Jays wanted this Pitching STUD! Number 3 starter in the Roy Halladay deal.  Much like Cain, J.A. Happ’s leaving an insane amount of runners on base (0.87 LOB%.)  Pitching in Philly, Happ and his 0.251 BABIP is going to kill you very, very, very, soon.

Edwin Jackson (2.62 ERA & 3.85 FIP) — There’s no debating Jackson has put it together, but he’s had a good chunk of luck, too.  I started out the season claiming that the Rays’ pwned the Tigers by nabbing Matt Joyce, but it appears as though I may have been wrong.  Jackson’s another guy with a BABIP under .260 and a LOB% of over 80%.  Unlike the previous two however, Edwin Jackson’s genuinely improved.  The key to Jackson has always been control, and a 2.86 BB/9 is incredibly solid.

Kevin Millwood should not have an ERA below 4.00 ever, and hopefully he’s not owned in your league.  Jarrod Washburn is indeed the bane of my existence.

Wandy Rodriguez (2.51 ERA & 3.65 FIP) — I’m a proud owner of Wandy, and I love trotting him out there, but there’s no point in acquiring him now.  Wandy’s left-on-base percentage is a pretty hefty 83%, while he’s BABIP is a solid .290 — be wary.  I love Wandy’s strike-out rate, but get the “fading fast feeling” when it comes to the final 2 or 3 weeks of the season.

Chris Carpenter (2.26 ERA & 2.99 FIP) — I missed out on the Carpenter boat, mainly because I’m uber-injury-paranoid, but so it goes. Carpenter’s making it work with 6.33 K/9 and a beautiful 4.58 K/BB rate.  Unfortunately, Carpenter’s sub-1.00 WHIP probably won’t last as his BABIP numbers start to trend towards at least .285ish, rather than his current .264 BABIP. Carpenter’s leaving ‘em on base with the best of ‘em at an 81% clip.  I was wrong on Carpenter, but at this point I’d be acquiring him as a 1.20-WHIP, 3.00 ERA guy.

Clayton Kershaw (2.73 ERA, 3.21 FIP) — I’m a Kershaw guy, but his current 5BB/9 is worrisome with his current .261 BABIP and 78% LOB.  Most of Kershaw’s statistics are maintainable, but I definitely wouldn’t be acquiring him at his current price.

Ricky Romero (3.66 ERA, 4.23 FIP) — There’s a lot of talk up ‘ere in Canada about Romero winning rookie of the year, but he’s still fairly bland in fantasy circles — and for good reason.  Romero’s probably a 4.00 ERA – 4.25 ERA pitcher the rest of the way home, and with the departure of Alex Rios the outfield defense isn’t getting any prettier.  A few more runs are probably going to start crossing the plate, and Romero’s 80% LOB will suffer.

A few other guys that I feel the need to mention,

Adam Wainwright could be pushing the envelope and a neat little quarter o’ run increase the rest of the way home in his ERA should probably be expected.  The same goes for Jered Weaver — expect a little bump, and if you can get someone to buy him dollar-for-dollar, I’d pull the trigger.

Last, but not least, Matt Garza’s (3.63 ERA, 4.23 FIP) got some regressing to do with his current .263 BABIP and 78% LOB. I think Garza has it in ‘em the rest of the way home though, so if you’re trying to deal with a stat nerd — I’d be targeting Garza and bringing up his “luck.”

Hopefully this quick piece serves useful to someone.  If you haven’t jumped on the fangraphs.com train, please do so –  all the statistics are exportable into Excel or Open Office and easily sortable.  Basically, all you’ve gotta do is pull a formula out of your ass, or a text book, and let Excel do the work.