Heading into 2009, Baseball America did everyone a favour and ranked the top-100 prospects. After dominating Olympic competition, Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and his heavy fastball jumped into the top-20 as the 11th overall prospect, just behind super-prospect Neftali Feliz. Twenty-year old Rick Porcello wasn’t all that far behind as Baseball America ranked him the 21st overall for the second year in a row.

Rick Porcello - Rivals.com

It’s Porcello, one year removed from his 7-million dollar prep-bonus, that’s adapted to the level of competition quicker — or so it appears. Porcello’s currently 6-and-2 with a sparking 3.48 ERA which is head and shoulders above Cahill’s 4.48 ERA and 2-and-5 record. Their Fielding Independent Pitching ERAs aren’t nearly as pretty, but Porcello once against bests Cahill with a 4.67 to 5.61 advantage. Neither Porcello nor Cahill has been as dominant as expected; both posted painfully low strike-out numbers, especially given their pure stuff.  Porcello posted surprisingly low strike-out totals in his first professional season, failing to tally 6-K per 9 in High-A.  Porcello‘s continued to post mediocre strike-out totals in the show, notching only 5.57 K per 9, thus far.  Porcello‘s succeeded on the strength of a ridiculous 54% ground-ball rate and by limiting free passes.

Trevor John Cahill

Cahill on the other hand, …what the hell happened to Trevor Cahill?

Cahill doesn’t throw quite as hard as Porcello, but he’s got a solid repertoire of pitches to go with his heavy two-seamer. Prior to his 2008 promotion to Double-A, Cahill was consistently notching 10+ K-per-9. Even after his promotion (as a 20-year old,) Cahill managed 34 strike-outs in 37 IP or 8K/9.  Upon Cahill‘s arrival in Oakland, he’s either been told to pitch to contact or has been abandon by his secondary offerings, as he’s seen his K-per-9 level off at 3.95 batters per 9. Coincidentally, 3.95 batters per nine is also the number of free passes Cahill’s allowing in the majors, good for a 1.00 K:BB rate.  It’s not the walk rate that’s been surprising though, it’s the drastic decline in strike-outs — even the most conservative models didn’t peg Cahill as a sub-4.00 K/9 pitcher.

It’s almost certain that both of these future aces will be demoted at some point to fine tune their mechanics, but viewing their future through the paradigm of a re-draft fantasy baseball league should be interesting at the very least.

When it comes to pure stuff, Porcello notches out Cahill based on pure velocity. Both pitchers throw hard, but Porcello has no issues firing his fastball upto 95mph whereas Cahill generally tops out in the 93-94mph area.  Porcello also changes speeds marginally better, as his curveball and slider drop below 80mph.  Both pitchers rely on their two-seamer heavily and while Cahill has the potential to get more vertical and horizontal movement, it’s Porcello that throws the pitch with consistency.  Cahill‘s clearly experiencing major issues with his release point, and replicating pitches as we use http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfx/ to compare their most recent starts on May 27th.

Trevor Cahill Release Point vs. Seattle May 27th

Porcello Release Point Vs. Kansas City

It’s pretty clear that Porcello‘s (bottom) finding and replicating his release point fairly well for a young kid, a 6-foot-5 kid at that.  Cahill (top) on the other hand is having issues finding his release point, with almost a full 2 inch disparity on some pitches.  Of all Cahill‘s problems, this is a minor one, but it may be contributing to his trouble finding the zone.

Cahill Strike Zone Plot By Pitch

Porcello Strike Zone Plot

Cahill (top) is all over the map, but he’s keeping the majority of his strikes down in the zone.  Trevor’s still leaving more than his fair share of change-ups up in the zone, but for the most part he’s keeping his ‘strikes’ down in the zone. Porcello on the other hand, pounded the zone against the Royals en route to six strong innings of 4-hit baseball.

Cahill's Vertical and Horizontal Break Chart

Porcello's Horizontal Vertical Break Chart

It’s pretty clear that both Cahill and Porcello threw an insane amount of two seamers, even if Porcello‘s 2-seamer was often misclassified. Porcello‘s two seamer shows a tonne of movement, but doesn’t match the difference between Cahill‘s 4-seam and 2-seam fastball.  Cahill‘s 4-seamer has quite a bit of backspin, and a tremendous amount of tailing action to it.  Porcello’s off-speed offerings, along with a greater change of speed, also have superior movement. In the end, based on their two latest games, it’s clear that Porcello‘s exhibited superior refinement. However, if Cahill can clean up his delivery and release point, he does have the arsenal to drastically lower his walks while increasing his strike-outs.

There’s some evidence that Cahill‘s beginning to put it together after a rough start to the season, even if he’s faced lack-luster competition thus far.  As sinkerballers are prone to do, Cahill’s had two blow-ups where he failed to make it through 3 innings while giving up 7 ER ( @Detroit, May 24th, and vs. Tampa, April 24th.) 

Excluding those two outings leaves Cahill with a line of  55.1 IP, 15 ER, 46 H, 22 BB, 25 K or a 2.44 ERA, and a 1.23 WHIP!

While randomly eliminating two data-sets for shits and giggles isn’t exactly statistically professional, Trevor Cahill has proven to be capable of putting together solid outings.  More importantly, prior to last night, Trevor Cahill had put together two straight 5 strike-out performances in 6.0 & 7.1 IP against Arizona and Seattle.  Having a good outing versus Arizona is nothing special, but overlooking Cahill‘s performance against a mediocre Mariners team would be a mistake.  The Seattle Mariners had already seen Trevor Cahill twice and after being held to a single run in each of those games, they should’ve been comfortable with his entire arsenal.  Cahill‘s continued domination of the M’s showcases his elite stuff, rather than extended beginners luck.

Much like Cahill, Rick Porcello had a couple early season jitters but has been lights-out since allowing 4 ER to TOR and KC, and 6 ER to the Yankees. Since his Yankee blow-up, Porcello’s allowed 1-run three times, 2 runs once, and shut-out then Twinkies. Porcello has also seen his strike-out numbers increase, and stabilize at 5 or 6 K per 9.

Neither Cahill or Porcello is initiating that many swings-and-misses inside or outside of the zone.  I wouldn’t expect either of these future aces to surpass 6 – 6.5 K per 9 with their current philosphy, however they both have room to improve in the K-department. It’s pretty clear that both of these kids are really starting to put it together, but like most rookies they’ll be proned to blow-ups.  Quantifying composure is obviously a difficult thing to do, but Cahill should have the edge over Porcello at this point.  A few terrible starts for Porcello could spell the end of his 2009 Big League season, as the Tigers would prefer not to ‘Bonderman’ yet another future star.

]]> http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/06/rick-porcello-trevor-cahill-past-present-future/feed/ 0 http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/05/about-evan-longoria-selling-high-and-throwing-strikes/ http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/2009/05/about-evan-longoria-selling-high-and-throwing-strikes/#comments Sun, 10 May 2009 03:21:17 +0000 kris http://www.freefantasymagazine.com/?p=1524 Tweet

Evan Longoria is currently destroying Major League pitching and justifying his second round draft selection to the tune of .358 AVG/.408 OBP/.706 SLG. Longoria’s already knocked out eight home-runs and is the league leader in runs batted in with 35.

Longoria’s proving me quite wrong, considering I claimed he was nowhere near worthy of a second round draft selection. I have little doubt in my mind that Evan Longoria will be a perennial all-star selection, but I didn’t think he’d achieve MVP-type numbers quite this soon.

However, I wouldn’t be too quick to peg Evan Longoria as first round value quite yet, and I still tend believe he finishes somewhere in the late-20′s when all is said and done.

The Evan Longoria Question is, Why Are Pitchers Still Throwing Him Strikes?

Carlos Pena, the league leader in home runs, bats behind him is the simple answer but stay with me for a second.

Longoria’s has always had passable plate discipline given his power. In his first full season, Longoria whiffed 27% of the time compared to walking 9% of the time. Pitchers continued to pound the zone at a league average clip against Longoria, largely due to his below league average contact-rate.

Organized by slugging percentage, here’s a quick look at the league leaders thus far (stats are as of Thursday May 7th, when I started this Article):

I understand that this is a lot to digest, but it gives a much clearer picture of Longoria as a hitter. I’ve bolded the statistics that fall noticeably below the league average in any given category (B/KK, Swing Percentage Outside the Zone, Swing Percentages Inside the Zone, Contact Outside the Zone, Contact Inside the Zone, and Zone Percentage [or percent of pitches inside the zone.])

Onto the Question: Why’s Longoria Getting So Many Pitches to Hit?

Of the elite hitters on this list, you’ve got to go all the way down to Adam Jones and Mike Cameron to find the other hot-hitting players that are seeing more pitches inside, rather than outside, of the zone. This obviously has quite a bit to do with line-up protection and for the most part it’s still pick your poison (Jones or Markakis, Braun or Cameron). If these players continue their hot hitting ways, you’d expect them to see less pitches inside the zone even if they’re protected by some of the most elite hitters in the game.

Longoria’s plate discipline statistics do not predict a dominant hitter. Longoria’s stats actually resemble a Russell Branyan-type hitter at this point. Their stats are eerily similar:

Branyan chases a few more pitches, but he also makes more contact. The only real difference here is that Longoria’s seeing 7% more pitches inside the strike-zone. Comparing Russell Branyan and Evan Longoria is terrifying, so I’ll never do it again, but how does Longoria react when pitchers start throwing him more borderline strikes?

Longoria’s plate discipline statistics may be skewed because he’s seeing the ball so well, and making damn-hard contact so often — but I’m still concerned.

Other players like Adam Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds fall into the trap of walking too little, swinging too much, and making poor contact on those swings. It’s obviously been working for them just as well as it has been for Longoria, but they’re all young players who are still getting a large percentage of pitches inside the zone.

If Longoria keeps up his sweet swinging ways, pitchers are going to have to start respecting him or challenging him. Carlos Pena continues to be among the league leaders in Home Runs, but at some point pitchers are going to have to risk walking Longoria in order to test his plate discipline. It’s a tricky situation as the Rays’ line-up has been terrific thus far and Upton still hasn’t even come close to hitting his stride.

Opposing pitchers will eventually catch onto Longoria’s lack of plate discipline, and it’ll be up to Longoria to adapt. I’m not predicting the end of the Longoria-Era by any stretch of the imagination. Ryan Howard has obviously shown that a player can still be successful only getting 40% of their pitches inside of the zone.

Keep in mind, we’re really only working off 30 games worth of 2009 statistics so there’s going to be a small sample size warning. With Longoria, it’s quite clear why almost everything is prefaced with a small sample size caveat — Check out the pitchers that he’s faced thus far:

This isn’t exactly murderers row, but you’ve got to give credit to Longoria for killing the pitchers that he should be killing. He hasn’t had much luck against solid pitchers, and has thus far managed to run into the tougher pitchers are opportune times. Catching the Yankees and the Red Sox early in the season when their pitching is a mess has helped Longoria and all of the Rays. A large portion of Longoria’s counting stats have come off none other than the Baltimore Orioles — it’ll be fun to watch him take on some of the stronger rotations.

To me, Longoria’s the epitome of a sell-high candidate. If you can get first round talent for him, I’m pulling the trigger pronto.

Jordan Zimmermann, born in the year 1986, is a wonderful young pitching prospect in the Nationals organization.  He’s arguably their best pitching prospect, and he’s definitely the most major league ready of the bunch — or some combination of both.

Zimmermann appears to have the inside track on the fourth spot in the rotation, as he continues to battle with Collin Balester and Shairon Martis. Martis appears to be the odd man out, regardless of his sparkling 1.42 Spring ERA.

Up until last Saturday, Zimmermann had dominated Spring Training for the Nats, feeding the hype machine much needed complex carbohydrates. At which point, the St. Louis Cardinals beat the living pulp out of him, for 5 runs in 2 innings. Afterwards, Zimmermann did something astonishing, something so warranted of praise that I’ll type it in bold and italics: Zimmermann manned-the-fuck up.

Zimmermann refused to make excuses for his poor performance, although the excuses were there. There’s absolutely nothing I hate more than watching a player decide he’s healthy enough to play, but also sick enough to make excuses if he fails.

Tangent Time:

Last night’s Syracuse / Oklahoma game definitely resulted in plenty of curse words being hurled at the television.  Jonny Flynn who was hurt enough to limp around like a 3-legged dog on defense, was also healthy enough to dribble-drive and fly by Oklahoma defenders for easy lay-ups.  Watching Flynn limp around right before jumping in front of a pass was about as irritating as a case of crabs.

Hey, did you see the HAIR on Blake Griffin’s mother? Jesus Christ, Lord Allmighty! That is some big hair. The side-view really doesn’t do it’s fullness justice.

Furthermore, BAM! Watching Griffin hit his head on the backboard after schooling the Orangemen and Flynn on how to successfully dunk, was uh-may-zing.

If only Wake Forrest didn’t shit the bed, my bracket would be pretty gosh darn solid at this point.

End of Tangent Time

Zimmermann’s spring numbers have been just as uh-may-zing as Griffin’s dunk: 20 Strikeouts to 2 Walks in 14 innings pitched while not allowing an earned run outside of that St. Louis fiasco.

Drafted in the second round (67th overall) of the 2007 draft,  Zimmermann ranks as the Nationals’ number 1 prospect heading into 2009, that’s after he ranked #7 in 2008.

Zimmermann dominated the early minors posting 103 strike-outs in 106.1 IP in AA last year. Throw in his 1.20-WHIP and 3.20-ERA and we’ve got ourselves a legitimate phenom. Zimmermann’s low-minors numbers are even more jaw-dropping as he posted 12K-per-9 in low-A, and 10K-per-9 in high-A. Zimmermann does all this while only walking about 3 batters per 9.

Zimmermann’s Arsenal:

1. 90-94mph heater, with decent movement.
2. low-90′s sinker
3. over-the-top curveball
4. work-in-progress change
5. decent to good slider

Courtesy of Yahoo, Manny Acta loves the kid:

He’s quite impressive. He attacks the strike zone. He had a very sharp slider today. For those guys that haven’t seen him, they struggled with that slider. He locked up a couple good hitters in that lineup…We’ve got three weeks to go. If he doesn’t get anybody out from here to the last day of the season, then I’m going to have to eat my words if I put him in the rotation today. We’re going to make the decision on whether it’s going to be the best for him or for us. Right now, it looks like it will be the best thing for us.

What’s In Store For Zimmermann?

Well, it looks like he has his roster spot pretty much locked up.  He dominated this past Thursday against Triple-A Round Rock. Anything could potentially happen, but Zimmermann should probably get to 150 IP one way or another this year.  Unless the remainder of the Nats rotation massively exceeds expectations, they probably won’t be in the play-off picture past July.  This’ll lead to the Nats doing the wise thing, and carefully treading these dangerous waters with Zimmermann.

It’s really not that hard to ruin a top-tier pitching prospect, and while it generally takes a little bit of help from the kid; you can probably name at least 10 pitchers whose development was delayed by early missuse/overused.

However, if Lannan, Olsen, and Cabrera exceed expectations, there’s no reason why the Nats couldn’t contend for a playoff spot which would probably push Zimmermann’s numbers up towards the 180 IP mark. Zimmermann did pitch about 135 innings between Single and Double A last year, so 180-190 isn’t a massive stretch.

Brad Evans over at Yahoo Fantasy Sports has Zimmermann pegged for 135 IP, 8 W, 4.34 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 101 K which seems like a conservative but fair estimate.

The Projection Models aren’t nearly as kind to Zimmermann. ZiPS has him getting 131IP, 4.81-ERA, 1.47-WHIP, to go with 88 Ks. Things get even worse with CHONE, to the tune of: 82IP, 5.05-ERA, 1.55-WHIP, and 69Ks.

Conclusion of Sorts

Just because you draft Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t mean you have to keep him the entire year.  Yahoo’s assessment that he’ll Cueto the situation is pretty on-point.  I see Zimmermann having a slightly better ERA throughout the season, as Cincinnati is probably the last place you’d want a youngin’ to pitch this side of the Mississippi — Just ask Homer Bailey.

Zimmermann should dominate in his first month or so, and a mid-threes ERA isn’t out of the question.  His K-Rate will probably fall in the 7 to 7.5-per-9 range, with a whip of around 1.30ish.

After the first three or four starts is when the fun will begin. Zimmermann’s definitely got low-4′s ERA potential in him to go along with a 1.35ish WHIP.  A Solid 7K-per-9, and about 3.5BB-per-9, should keep him around the talented rookie standard of 2K-per-BB.

In shallow leagues where you can replace Zimmermann with a competant pitcher, by all means draft him for his upside.  In deep leagues where you’re looking at replacing Zimmermann with someone that pitches for the Seattle Mariners, I’d hedge my bets by picking an innings eater.

Zimmerman projects out as a solid number-2 or spectacular number-3 guy, in just about any rotation — for you keeper league guys.  Gil Meche-ish? Yah, I’m going with Gil-Meche-ish.

Just like Meche, Zimmerman is probably going to have to throw his slider and risk injury to remain a dominant strike-out pitcher.  The knock on Zimmerman is no out-pitch, but he clearly has one and it’s his slider — The Nats just don’t want him using it all the time as they’d prefer he avoid the fate of Gil Meche and his two rotator cuff surgeries.

The hype-machine would like to welcome your reigning American League Rookie of the Year and member of the American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays, Sir Evan Longoria.

Longoria seems to have his head on right, and is definitely one of the nicer guys around the league.  Always taking time to chat with fans, sign autographs, and generally remain in high spirits.  There is however, a whole lot of weight on his shoulders this year.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Longoria and the Rays to repeat their unbelievable, unexpected, unpredicted, unprecedented success in 2008.

The question is: Will They Live Up To The Hype
As a Reference Point, here’s our Evan Longoria Fantasy Stat Index

Longoria has been on the fast track to the big leagues since he was drafted 3rd overall way back in the year 2006.  Longoria was generally considered the best hitter of the bunch and the scouts raved about how quick his hands were.

After last years’ rookie of the year campaign, it appears as though nothing has changed.  Longoria is still very quick through the zone, and has the ability to adjust quickly.

The question fantasy owners want answered is whether or not Evan Longoria will IMPROVE upon last years’ numbers. The odd thing about fantasy drafts is that young players are always projected to improve in the eyes of fantasy owners, while projection models almost always predict a slight regression in the non-counting stats.

The first thing required to guestimate the chance of improvement is Longoria’s ABs.  Longoria started out 2008 in AAA, and after posting mediocre numbers, he got the call.  Some wonder why the Rays even bothered to send him down for 25 AB, but to each his own.

Longoria logged 448 at-bats in 2008, and missed games due to his minor league stint and late season injuries. Longoria broke his left wrist during the dog-days of August, but made it back for the playoffs where everything seemed fine.

Bill James’ Projection Model comes the closest to predicting a full-season for Longoria, at 599AB.  As there appeared to be no lasting effects from the wrist injury, there’s no reason to assume that Longoria won’t play a full season. BJ’s robot also predicts a slight increase in batting average, which brings us to this stat line: 37HR/102R/116RBI/9SB/.280 average.

This is bringing us awful close to David Wright territory (32HR, 112R,119RBI,17SB, .309AVG) and it’s definitely putting Longoria somewhere between tier-1 and tier-2.  A-Rod’s injury currently leaves tier-1 with a single occupant, David Wright. Longoria’s projected line bests Aramis Ramirez’s, and with Chipper’s injury concerns – Is Longoria the second best 3rd Basemen out there?

What’s Keeping Longoria From Being Great

Of the ELITE third basemen (Rodriguez, Wright, Chipper, Ramirez and Longoria,) Longoria stood out in a couple categories, bad categories; strike-out and walk percentage, which we’ll combine into BB:K.

O-SW is O-Swing, or Swing Percentage Outside the zone.  Z-SW is swings within the zone, and SW is total Swing percentage.  CON is contact percentage, with the same sub-categories.

So here’s our problem: Longoria walks the least and strikes-out the most, giving him a tolerable but not preferable BB/K ratio. Normally we see these numbers with pure power hitters rather than someone who projects more in the David Wright mold.

Longoria also swings the most often at pitches outside the zone, and swings the least at pitches inside the zone.  His low Z-Swing percentage artificially lowers his actual Swing percentage.    When it comes to plate discipline, we’re talking more Aramis Ramirez than David Wright or Chipper Jones.

Considering Longoria has the “worst” eye of the bunch, you’d assume he’d make up for it with his quick wrists but his contact rate floats around Alex Rodriguez who’s far more of a pure power hitter.

I’m hesitant to overly criticize Longoria because different players make different approaches work, and a year from now maybe we’ll be comparing the freshest face with Longoria’s approach.  However, these numbers are troublesome until we actually know what Longoria is: a pure-power hitter, a doubles-machine that hits 35HR a year, or a patient hitter that capitalizes on mistakes.

The good news is that we should expect improvement in all of these fields as Longoria gains experience and matures as a hitter. The bad news is that if Longoria hasn’t made strides during the off-season to curb these bad habits, pitchers will adapt.  This is why so many talented rookies experience the dreaded sophomore slump.

Conclusion:

According to ESPN, Evan Longoria is coming off the board as the second third basemen drafted but he’s nearly 21 positions below David Wright who averages the 4th overall draft spot, or the third player chosen. Overall this puts Longoria somewhere in the neighborhood of Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday.

It’s tough to price Longoria out at this spot, as both Holliday and Beltran run and Fielder plays first base. Alex Rodriguez is going off the board in around the same spot but with his recent injury woes, we can’t exactly judge Longoria against A-Rod either.

However, it’s fairly clear that Longoria’s draft spot reflects a common view that not only will Longoria will play a full season, he’ll also improve.  This is not a stance I’d be willing to take, so long as you can get Youkilis 10 picks later, Ramirez 16 Picks later, and Chipper Jones nearly 30 picks later.  After the elite players there’s a plethora of high-risk / high-reward players that run almost 25 deep.

Evan Longoria has a decent shot of meeting these lofty expectations, but I can’t recommend buying into the hype.  As with any young player, there are going to be some ups and downs and the Tampa Bay Rays will undoubtedly come back down to earth which’ll lower Longoria’s Rib-Eyes and Runs.

If Longoria stole 20 Bases, or hit .300, both of which he theoretically COULD do — it’d be a different ball-game.  But as a .280 hitter that doesn’t run that much, 25th overall or the end of the second round is just too high.

Instead, take a risk on Edwin Encarnacion or Chris Davis that could realistically put up very similar numbers at a much cheaper price. Davis does however suffer from all of the strike-out, contact, and plate discipline problems that may plague Longoria.

Photo's Courtesy Of Keith Allison - Flickr

Dexter Fowler - COL - Dave Nelson Flickr

Dexter Fowler – Centerfielder – Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have put together the best of both worlds with their outfield.  It’s stacked with average to above-average veterans that will do an admirable job filling in until the youngsters come due.

The depth allowed them to trade away one of the best corner-outfielders in the game, in Matt Holliday.

The Veterans: Scott Podsednik, Ryan Spillbroghs, and Brad Hawpe.

The Rookies: Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Seth Smith.

The Inbetween-ers: Matt Murton, Chris Frey, Dan Ortmeier and Matt Miller

If you wanted to put together an outfield, this is a great way to go about doing so.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, the Rockies outfield depth may negatively effect any single prospects fantasy value.

Dexter Fowler — Center-field-prospect-extraordinare.

Baseball Prospectus, which I generally always use as my starting point, just released their 2009 top prospect rankings/ratings.  Fowler comes in at an improved 12th overall. Sandwiched between two uber-prospects in the Marlins organization, Cameron Maybin and Mike Stanton.

SKILLS AND STATS:

When scouts draw up a five-tool player, they draw up guys like Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones before he turned on the suck-switch.  These are the type of players that the scouts have compared Fowler to.  Defense doesn’t convert to fantasy value, so we’ll just huck that out.  While this probably lowers Fowler on the prospect list, he’s still a switch-hitting baller with speed to spare.

Much like Cameron Maybin, Fowler can steal a shit-tonne of bases if he’s given the opportunity.  The Raw speed isn’t in question — He does however need to work on his base running skills.  Luckily, getting caught stealing isn’t a negative in fantasy baseball.  The Rockies let Willy Tavares go, because even at such a young age Fowler can do everything that Tavares could.

At this point, Fowler’s power is still pretty raw and his ceiling is probably about 12-15 HR given a full-time gig.  Eventually Fowler will top out about 20 HR potential, which is just dandy for your lead-off man.  Fowler seems to understand that he’s being groomed for the CF-gig and has been using his power to pound doubles, rather than whack home-runs.

A quick note on Fowler’s picking up switch-hitting after an entire amateur career of only hitting from one side of the plate: WOW.  He’s kept his lefty-average over .275 which is darn impressive. The Gents over at baseball-intellect.com put together a nice piece on Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin — just remember, it was put together at the start of 2008 prior to Fowler’s ridiculous .946 OPS bounce-back season.

His Strike-Out Rate is a bit concerning, although he did improve on his 26% High-A rate posting a respectable 20% K-Rate in AA last year. A minor league BB-Rate of between 10-15 percent keeps his OBP at a very solid .400+

Forget about 2007, as 2006 and 2008 appear to be the real Dexter Fowler.

Opportunity

Looking at the remainder of the Rockies line-up, there’s really no typical lead-off hitter.  If Fowler gets the job, he’ll almost certainly lead the line-up off — which will result in a whole hoot of a lot of RUN opportunities.

Clint Barmes and Willy Tavares spent the majority of 2008 atop the Rockies line-up, and Tavares is in Cincinnati and Barmes may lose his job to Ian Stewart who is about as far from a lead-off hitter as you can get.

Right now, it’s looking like the Rockies can either lead off with Spillbroghs or Fowler and it’ll be interesting to see how it pans out.

Maybe Seth Smith is more Major League ready at this point, but he’s not a lead-off hitter.  Carlos Gonzalez is still swinging at everything, and striking out too much — which is unfortunate.

Watch Fowler in the pre-season, as he could use at least a few months in Triple-A.  Unfortunately with the depth the Rockies have in the OF, a slump may relegate Fowler to the minors for a few months of seasoning.

Conclusion

If you’re in a deep league, consider Fowler. His upside is equal to that of Cameron Maybin who’s been flying off draft-boards.  A slump is almost inevitable, and impatient owners will more than likely drop him. If you can afford the roster-spot, he’s definitely worth the gamble.  Even with limited at-bats in 2009, he’ll produce in at least the stolen base category.

Maybe Fowler isn’t worth a starting spot in your line-up at this point, but he should be the first guy off your bench.

Buy the Hype.

Even if he doesn’t make the club out of camp, he’s worth rostering in a 5-6 OF 12 team league, or your first, possibly second, bench spot on a 14 team 4-OF league. It’ll be an interesting fight between Gonzalez, Smith and Fowler.

Determining Burnett’s fantasy value heading into 2009 is akin to flipping a coin, with heads being a healthy 200IP and tails being less than 100IP.

Now, a brief A.J. Burnett time-line (Courtesy of Canada’s Third-Most Awesome Sports Channel):

Burnett -- Phillustration Flickr

Dec 18, 2008: Signed as a free agent by the New York Yankees to a five-year contract.
Nov 5, 2008: Filed for free agency.
Sep 25, 2007: Missed 1 game (personal reasons).
Sep 24, 2007: Personal reasons, day-to-day.
Aug 12, 2007: Missed 35 games (right shoulder injury).
Jul 1, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 29).
Jun 28, 2007: Missed 13 games (right shoulder injury).
Jun 19, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 13th).
Jun 13, 2007: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 22, 2006: Missed 69 games (right elbow injury).
May 29, 2006: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow injury).
Apr 22, 2006: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Apr 15, 2006: Missed 10 games (elbow injury).
Apr 1, 2006: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Dec 6, 2005: Signed as a free agent by the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year contract.
Oct 27, 2005: Filed for free agency.
May 31, 2005: Missed 9 games (elbow injury).
May 23, 2005: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jan 17, 2005: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Oct 3, 2004: Missed 19 game (elbow injury).
Sep 19, 2004: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jun 3, 2004: Missed 53 games (elbow surgery).
May 12, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (elbow surgery).
Apr 3, 2004: Elbow surgery, 15-day DL.
Mar 28, 2004: Elbow surgery, sidelined indefinitely.
Dec 20, 2003: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Nov 19, 2003: Activated from the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
Oct 25, 2003: Missed 16 playoff and 139 regular season games (right elbow inflammation).
Apr 26, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL.
Apr 9, 2003: Missed 8 games (right elbow inflammation).
Mar 29, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 21).
Sep 14, 2002: Missed 24 games (right elbow injury).
Aug 19, 2002: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
May 6, 2002: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
May 7, 2001: Missed 29 games (broken right foot).
Apr 24, 2001: Sent on rehabilitation assignment to Brevard County (A).
Mar 31, 2001: Broken right foot, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 23).

When You sign a 5yr-82.5 million dollar contract, you get tossed into the hype machine. There’s a nice post over at fangraphs.com explaining how Burnett’s contract plays out, and their general players current value vs. how much they’re being paid.

So whats the deal with Burnett when it comes to his fantasy value?

If he pitches 200 IP, you’re getting at least 200K, a sub-1.25 WHIP, and round about 3.50ish ERA.  This is pretty much the second tier of starting pitchers. Very few pitchers can get to 230-240 strike-outs in a season, and a healthy Burnett is one of them.  You’re basically getting Edison Volquez’s numbers with a better WHIP, or Brandon Webb’s numbers with a few more K’s.

He’s not quite in the class of Lincecum and Santana but his high K-Rate, really makes up for the slight downgrade in the ERA & WHIP from all-stars like Hamels, and Peavy.

Burnett is now also pitching for the best offense money can buy, which means if he goes 6 — he’ll get a W.  Twenty wins seems more like a basement than a ceiling with that line-up behind him.

STATS: 9.5K per 9, 3.50 BB per 9, 2.5ish K:BB.

So if Burnett goes 230 IP, he’s a top-5 or 6 Pitcher.  Now, please factor in the risk. Burnett’s had elbow issues his entire career, and that probably isn’t going to change.  As ridiculous as the A-Rod speech on wanting to prove to the world that he was indeed worth 200 Million dollars was, it does hold true.

Burnett and Sabathia are going to have to prove their worth.  While this contains no statistical data at all, and is nothing more than a gut feeling; Burnett is going to be using his insane-uncle-charlie quite a bit.  He’ll be throwing hard (is 100mph still a possibility?), and if anything goes wrong he’ll start forcing it.

Obviously, no-one is going to draft Burnett based on 220 IP — So you’ve got to decide upon a number that you feel is reasonable.  Two 15-day DL stints seems about right to me. There’s nothing to Burnett to analyze other than his injuries.  When he’s healthy he puts up devastating numbers, and while his control could use some work — most fantasy players can live with a 1.25-WHIP.

When Burnett is off, Burnett’s got control issues but Burnett’s normally only off when he’s tweaked his elbow. He’s shown he can pitch through minor inflammation in contract years, so the question becomes whether or not he’ll pitch through injuries in New York.

Bank on 160IP from Burnett, plus 50-60 IP from your fantasy league’s replacement level player. If you assume a 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 5-6 K / 9 for your replacement level player you’re getting pretty much Burnett’s 160 strikeout’s plus about 40 from your replacement level guy.  So 220 IP nets you 200 K.

I arrived at these numbers arbitrarily, but in a normal league a 4.50 ERA,  1.40 WHIP and 5-6K per 9 seems fair.

160 IP nets you 62 Earned Runs at a 3.50 ERA, and combine that with 30 ER in 60 IP (4.50ERA) and you’ve got 92 ER in 220 IP. Burnett’s probable 3.50 ERA becomes a 3.76 ERA when you combine it with your 60 IP from a replacement level pitcher.

Burnett’s WHIP will be the most volatile, but I’ll consider the ceiling of 1.30ish + 60IP of 1.40ish. Burnett has 208 BB+H in 160IP, and Replacement has 84 BB+H in 60 IP.  Combined that’s 292 BB+H in 220 IP = 1.33 WHIP.

Our combined AJ Burnett (160IP) + Player X (60 IP) stats are as follows:

3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 200K

The only thing I can add as a native-Torontonian, is that it wont be a contract year for another 5 years.

USEFUL ARTICLE HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/aj-to-ny

and HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/aj-burnett-to-the-yankees

Lovely Elbow Shot courtesy of Larry Page / Flickr

At 6’5 / 218lbs with good body control, Samardzija should be a solid jump-ball artist and red-zone target at the next level. Samardzija is your prototypical possession receiver, and gets a solid release off the line.

..wait, Samardzija picked the Cubs instead of the NFL? I guess that makes sense when you run a 4.62 / 40 Yd Dash.  It worked out for Drew Henson, right?

Stat time!

SKILLS

So, first off what the hell happened when Samardzija hit AAA last year? For some reason Jeff decided to become a solid pro-prospect and put up respectable K/9 numbers after a couple seasons of mediocre numbers.

The K/9 numbers hung in there at almost a strike per inning, once he arrived in the bigs.  It’s pretty tough to judge Samardzija based on 70 Innings Pitched between AAA and the MLB.

The 1.40 WHIP and 4.88 BB per 9 aren’t pretty stats, and maybe he’ll improve on them, or maybe he’ll continue making power-pitching rookie  mistakes.

However, a big HOWEVER, Samardzija has the tools to work with:

95 MPH fastball, 83MPH slider, 85MPH change-up, and a 85mph Splitter.

Samardzija also has a 2-seam fastball, which like his 4 seamer, has a good amount of action on it. It may be Samardzija’s addition of the Splitter that’s brought him up to the bigs, and increased his K-Rate.

That’s what gets my vote anyways. I’d like to look into the PFX data on his change-up, but that’ll have to wait. He doesn’t appear to hide the change-up at all, and a full off-season and camp should help with that.

Samardzija has the stuff to excel, it’s just a matter of controlling it which will take time.  I’d like to see him spend a full year in Triple-A, but he’s in that in-between phase.

Opportunity

According to the Chicago Tribune, Samardzija at least hopes to be the Cubs 5th starter. So, at least that’s good.  Hopes and dreams make for all-stars!

Unfortunately, the only shot that Samardzija has to start is nabbing that number 5 spot. The Cubs rotation is pretty much set in stone, at least until an injury:

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Rich Harden
3. Ryan Dempster
4. Ted Lilly

So, who’s Samardzija battling with for that number five spot?

1. Sean Marshall
2. Aaron Heilman
3. Chad Gaudin
4. Angel Guzman
5. Kevin Hart
6. FREE AGENT / TRADE

Starting with Guzman and Hart, Samardzija has probably a better shot than either of those two.  Everyone’s inexperienced, and Samardzija has got the inside track. Guzman used to be considered front-line starter material, so keep an eye out.

Heilman and Gaudin, are also probably best stuck into the same group.  Heilman went from being Seattle’s potential closer to a Chicago Cub without a job. I’m not quite sure why the Cubs would have traded Olson for Heilman if they planned on filling that SP #5 with them. To me, it seems like it’s almost guarenteed that Heilman is going to be traded again — or — work in a relief role.

Gaudin has started before, and he’s good in spurts.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gaudin land the spot starter role, on this club. It’s almost a given that someone on the Cubbies rotation is going to get hurt for a length of time; So Gaudin will step in.

This still leaves that number five starting pitcher spot open, wide open.

Marshall, Samardzija, Free Agent

Marshall used to be quite the prospect, and he’s a servicably back-end starter at this point.  He’s got more experience than Samardzija and he’s also got the benefit of being another lefty. Right now, It’s about as much of a coin-flip as you could ever imagine. Pitchers and Catchers will report in a couple days, so this may actually be a battle that’s waged during Spring Training.

Free Agent / Trade?

I’m considering this a pretty realistic option, as the market is still doing it’s thing.  Ben Sheets is obviously tarnished goods at this point.

Heilman could have been picked up from the Mariners to be swung in a Peavy? trade. Right now it seems downright IDIOTIC, that the Cubs would have traded Felix Pie for Aaron Heilman — somethings got to be in the works, right?

Peavy trade situation courtesy of MLB.com, says maybe the trade will go down after the Cubs sale.

and here’s the Sun Times’ take as of the end of January

The problem with the Peavy deal is that the Cubs are running out of back-up plans.  The lower-tier free agent pitchers are now starting to get signed, as pitchers and catchers report to camp in under a bloody week. Pedro’s still out there, but do the Cubs need another Injury risk?

Verdict:

I’d put Samardzija at about a 1/3 shot of breaking camp with the job.  That doesn’t particularly mean he’ll have no value though.

If the Cubs don’t get Peavy, then Samardzija has a shot of making the rotation in the first month of the season.  Someone will get hurt, and/or Marshall may suck it up.

Maybe Gaudin gets the first shot at the Spot-Starter Role, maybe not.

I’d have to say feed the machine, but your league better be deep as all hell. I can think of plenty of other pitchers I’d gamble on.

Photo Courtesy of TheWestEnd

How’s life in America, Mr. Ramirez? Chicago’s a bit colder than Cuba, but the people are lovely aren’t they.  Hope you’re doing well and enjoying the immense hype surrounding you, because it’s about time you’re fed to the hype machine.

The White Sox nailed Ramirez down with a 4 year deal paying 4.75 million of its course.  At this point, the White Sox have already paid for Ramirez with the super-rookie season he turned in.  Ramirez is a tad on the old-side for a prospect, as he’s already 27, but he’s made the transition to the MLB perfectly.

Ramirez can play Shortstop, Second Base, and some Outfield.  He doesn’t particularly play any of those positions well, but his above-average athletic ability makes him passable at all of these positions.  Ramirez has stated he feels most comfortable playing Shortstop, and this looks like where he’s going to start 2009.

Onto the stats and the corresponding Scouting Report for Alexei Ramirez.

Four things stand out:

1. 21 Home Runs in 480 AB from the MI position
2. 13 Stolen bases even if he was caught 9 times
3. A .290 Average with only a .317 OBP which means an AWFUL 3.6% BB rate
4. He Swings at everything: 59.9% Swing Rate, 42.7% Outside the Zone Swing Rate

Chicago, we’ve got a problem. Generally, a players physical skills begin to peak at around the age of 27 and you get to the point where you are what you are. Alexei Ramirez definitely has some leeway with regards to this, as he’s only spent a year in the MLB.  You should know by August, whether or not his bad habits have caught up to him.

But August doesn’t help you, as fantasy leagues don’t draft in August.

Alexei Ramirez’s BABIP seems about right sitting at .296, for someone with his Line Drive Rate (16.6%) and his Swing Rate (59.9%).

When you look at players with 400 AB, Ramirez ranks only behind Vladimir Guerrero for swing percentage.  Delmon Young, Jeff Franceour, Bengi Molina, and Josh Hamilton are other notables with a Swing Percentage above 55 percent. Alexei Ramirez does make contact at an 81.4% clip, which is right in line with Guerrero.

Ramirez has garnered quite a few comparisons to another second baseman turned outfielder, that he mirrors physically: Alfonso Soriano.  Soriano comes in at 6’1 – 180lbs, while Ramirez is 6’3″ – 185lbs.

Soriano’s 54 percent Swing Rate is not much better than Ramirez’s 60 percent, so it appears the comparisons seem about right. In 2007 Soriano did swing at about 60 percent of pitches, so the difference is more than likely marginal.

In Soriano’s first full season (2001) when he was 25 years old he put up very similiar statistics to Ramirez.

First off, all the usual caveats apply. Different eras, Different players, only a year for a sample size, etc etc.

Soriano clearly has more advanced base running skills than Ramirez, but I’d argue that the difference in pure speed isn’t as great as the stolen base numbers project. Soriano isn’t a great pure base-stealer to begin with, so Alexei Ramirez really needs some work to improve on his sub-60 percent success rate.

Other than that, everything favors Alexei Ramirez. While Alexei Ramirez’s OBP is an awful .317, Soriano got by with a .304. Soriano did have a slightly better WALK rate, notching an awful 4.8% it’s really not that much better than Ramirez’s 3.6%. In Soriano’s next year, one of his best years, he only walked 3.2% of the time.

There is a difference in K rate however, which favours Ramirez.  Soriano put up a 22-percent K-rate while Ramirez put up a respectable 13%.  Combine that with Ramirez’s slightly better SLG percentage and Batting Average and we’ve got ourselves a pretty good comparison.

So what did Soriano do after his first full season?

While it’s probably ridiculous to expect 39 Home Runs, 128 R, 102 RBI, 41 SB, a .300 average, and a .880 OPS percentage — Short of the SB, it is possible.

Conclusion:

Alexei Ramirez has so many layers to him, and whether or not you consider him a sleeper depends on how deep you dig. If you just look at last year and expect him to improve on his rookie numbers, that may be a bit ignorant considering his hacking ways and low walk rate.

If you peel the layers back, you’ll notice that all signs point to him showing a lot of bad signs going forward.  Whether it’s the Walk Rate, The Swing Rate, The Base Running Skills or his label as a “fastball hitter”.  Pitchers will adapt to him, and start throwing him more junk if he’s swinging at everything. Can he adapt?

If you pull the layers all the way, you see that it’s indeed possible for a player with Ramirez’s skill set to make use of it.  While he wont hit 40 HR, he does have the raw power and bat-speed to make pitchers pay for mistakes.  Maybe he follows the career path of Soriano, and dominants before getting shifted to the outfield.  On the other hand, maybe he flops.

Verdict: Feed the Hype-Machine, but draft a safe back-up plan. If Pitchers get the book on Ramirez he’s going to fail, and fail badly. With shortstop being so deep, you can pick up a cheap 2-category guy as an insurance plan. Whether that’s stolen bases and runs, or batting average and mild production across the board — is up to you.

Photo Courtesy of Kimberly / Flickr

The Hype Machine loves New York and while it prefers the Yankees, the Mets will suffice.  Daniel Murphy selected in the 13th round of the 2006 draft put up solid stats after an early August 2008 call-up.

While Murphy isn’t quite the prospect that Fernando Martinez is, he’ll be the one to break camp with a starting gig.  He’ll be battling former Baseball America top-prospect Jeremy Reed, veteran journey-man Fernando Tatis and everyone’s favorite oxymoron Angel Pagan for at-bats in the left field position.

Daniel Murphy, welcome to the hype-machine.

It’s pretty clear that we’re dealing with a tiny sample size, when examining Murphy’s professional career. So, to the minors we go:

An impressive 2007 gave way to a spectacular 2008, which lead to an incredible MLB-rookie debut.  Daniel Murphy probably wont continue raking at a .340+ clip as he did in the Minors, or even a .313 rate that he posted in the first 49 MLB games.

There’s no reason to believe that Daniel Murphy can’t at least hit between .290 and .300 over the course of a season while posting a .360 OBP.

In 2008, Murphy posted a stupid-silly BABIP of .386 which is bound to come down. This is why the stat-heads always warn you about small sample-sizes.  Of course Murphy’s batting average will drop as his BABIP drops, but his 33% LD rate seems like a half-decent indicator of a higher than average BABIP for the rest of Murphy’s career.

The problem is whether or not he’ll stick at the big-league level.  Murphy can competantly play the outfield, third-base, and first-base.  Last year the second base experiment began, and while he’s not naturally suited to the position, it’s one of the few places on the diamond where he has an above average bat.

If Murphy sticks at 2nd base going into 2009, he’ll be a steal.  Whether or not he bats in the two-hole, or in the 7th or 8th spot will also make a difference.

Murphy’s got double-digit HR potential, and should post a solid average. Even if he hits at the end of a decent Mets line-up the R & RBI should be fine.

Bill James’ prediction model has Murphy at 74 RBI / 73 RUN / 14 HR /  14 SB / .296 AVG.

This looks pretty rosterable to me.

Murphy also had a solid Arizona Fall league season posting a .397 AVG / .487 OBP / .619 SLG

The Verdict: Murphy’s going to be a great late round flyer in the outfield, with the upside of transforming that power into a starting second base gig.  As long as Murphy finds a way to play, he’ll be worth rostering in deeper leagues.  Feed the machine, it feasts on doubles hitters in high-octane offenses.

So Mr. Aviles, you appeared as if you were going to be a life-long minor leaguer.  Your skill set doesn’t particularly fill up the stat sheet, nor does it generally create all that much hype.  Then you get to the majors and put up a .325 Batting average in 419AB.

Mike Aviles, welcome to the hype machine.

Seeing as how Mike Aviles has only played but one season in the major leagues, it’s going to be somewhat useful to look deeper into his minor league past.  First off, the stats from 2008 for Mike Aviles, Royals Shortstop / Second Baseman.

Followed by his Minor League Statistics:

So what the hell happened in 2008? Somehow, through a series of levers and pulleys, Mike Aviles managed to put up amazing numbers in triple-A and then carry them over to the major league level.

First off, Aviles comes in as a useful cog even if he under performs.  Trey Hillman’s only other option is Tony Pena Jr. who may well be the worst hitting player, let alone shortstop, in the history of the game.  There are at least 5 pitchers I’d rather hand the bat too in a clutch situation.

The first problem with Aviles, is that he came out of nowhere.

1. This could be a random fluctuation in his stats, even when spread about 600 PA there is still an insane margin of error. I’ve recommended “The Book” before, but it does explain quite well that even a full season isn’t a particularly stellar means of judging a players talent.
2. Secondly, something like this screams performance enhancing drugs.
3. Third, and the one you’re hoping for if you’re drafting Aviles — something clicked.

In Six minor league seasons, Aviles hit a respectable .297 with very little power or speed.  In one major league season, Aviles hit .325.

Maybe something did click, but Aviles has very little margin for error.  While his contact rate is solid 84.4% contact rate, with a 91% contact rate in the zone.  With that said, Aviles only walks 4-5% of the time. As he only strikes out 10-13% of the time, this keeps his BB:K at a manageable .40-.50.

Aviles batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was an inflated .359, which is bound to come down. The standard practice of adding .120 to a players line-drive percentage brings an expected BABIP to about .320. Aviles batting average should come down to levels more likely around his minor numbers, and expecting something between .275-.290 is aboot right. Bill James’ projection system has Aviles hitting about .288, sounds good.

When you combine that with the fact that Aviles doesn’t walk, we’ve got a problem.  You’ve got to get on base to score runs, and while I’m high on the Royals offense, we’ve got a big problem.

This’ll more than likely mean a demotion in the batting order to the lower half, more than likely 6th or seventh which results in another problem, a lack of RBI.

Bill James’ has Aviles at 78 Runs and 72 RBI, but I’m not quite buying it. He’ll come close, but there are plenty of other guys that’ll have an equal shot at those numbers.

The Verdict: Do Not Feed The Machine! If you really want to, just get your tetanis shot first. It is old and rusty.

Photo Courtesy of TeresaHsu / Flickr.com