Grady Sizemore

Sacks Juiced: May 26

Dallas Braden left the Oakland loss in the fourth inning with a sore ankle.  Braden had issued an unearned run and three hits in four innings before allowing a couple walks and being pulled.  Braden believes that he’ll make his next scheduled start.

Braden’s counterpart, Jeremy Guthrie, pitched six innings allowing one earned run for the quality start.  Guthrie walked three batters while only striking out a couple. As I’ve said before, Guthrie’s a rate-stat only fantasy pitcher with a penchant for keeping his BABIP low by inducing groundballs and catchable flies.  Guthrie’s FIP, xFIP and tERA will always trend above his actual ERA but hoping for a continuation of 3.64 ERA is a pipe dream.  Jeremy Guthrie is the king of average, and you should probably expect that going forward.

Jake Peavy got lit up by the Sizemore-less Cleveland Indians.  Peavy allowed 6ER on 8H but only walked a single batter while striking out 5.  Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald went deep off of Peavy.  Peavy hasn’t looked like this since his second year in the league (2007) where he went 12-11 with an ERA of 4.11 and a FIP of almost five.  The strike-outs are still there (8.02K/9) but the walks have ballooned past 3 and a half.

Mitch Talbot lowered his ERA to 3.73 and WHIP to 1.28 with a 7 inning, 2 earned run ball game against the Sox.  At this point, shutting down the Sox is nothing to celebrate.  After starting the season with an ERA in the twos, Talbot’s had 3 bad games in his last five (Jays, Detroit, and KC).

Travis Hafner’s average is up to .281 after a couple of hits but it’s an empty average.  Hafner’s power is nowhere near his career mark and his ISO is under .150.  There’s some good news on the horizon though, just not 30HR news.  Over the last 8-games, Hafner’s managed extra bases (4Doubles, 1HR) in five.  Hafner’s working on a 12-Game hitting streak, too!  For someone that started May with a .197 AVG and .324 SLG, closing it out with a .281 AVG and .430 SLG is pretty impressive.

Jason Heyward went 2-for-4 with a couple RBIs and now has a .296/.415/.578 line which makes for one hell of a .992 OPS.

Cameron Maybin had 2 hits and a DINGER! but this is me ignoring those numbers.

Maybe Anibal Sanchez gets his own article after 6.1IP of 5H, 2ER, 6K baseball.

Life sure is good for Martin Prado who now has 32 Runs on the year after a 3hit, 1R night.  Batting ahead of Heyward et. al means 52% of your pitches will be in the zone and almost 65% will be fastballs.

Doumit hit a homer and Andrew McCutchen had a couple hits to raise his BA to .324.  McCutchen’s .371 BABIP is high for even him — he’s more of a .290 hitter.

Mike Leake magically turned 10 hits and a walk into only a single earned run.  Leake went 7.1 innings and struck out three — This kid can pitch and if this were a different year (read. no Heyward,) he’d be the odds on favourite to win the NL ROY.

Lester walked FIVE! batters and gave up one hit in his 6 inning, 0ER, 9K performance.  Despite the walks, he’s back to being Jon Lester, future Cy Young award winner. A single by Wily Aybar was the only hit on the day against Lester.  I’m starting to think that the Rays enjoy being no-hit.

James Shields allowed 2 ER, 4H, 2BB while striking out 5 over his 8 inning stint.  Shields pitched a terrific game and is still amongst the elite.

Mike Cameron is back, yet it was Ellsbury rather than Hermida that sat.

Jose Reyes stole 2 bases, had 3 hits, and scored 3 runs last night.  He is an elite shortstop, even if the power’s not there.

R.A. Dickey had 7K in 6IP but I’d rather not discuss a knuckleballer.  Dickey managed to get his way out of three bases loaded jams in the first three innings, so thing’s aren’t exactly exciting.

Derrek Lee hit a homer but the BA is still a concern — Lee’s hitting 21% LD and his BABIP is .262 so there’s definitely room for improvement. ZiPS has him hitting .280 the rest of the season.

Ryan Dempster looked great holding LA scoreless while allowing three hits while striking out seven and walking a single batter.

Clayton Kershaw only allowed 4 H and a couple of walks but it once again took him 100+ pitches to get through 6IP.

Vladdy Guerrero went off for a couple of DINGERS! in his 5RBI performance.  Hamilton and Cruz didn’t miss out on the action, each hitting one of their own.

Billy Butler continued his hot hitting with a couple hits and a walk.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gil Meche is hurt; something’s wrong with his delivery and presence. Meche gave up 6 R (4ER) on 4HR and has a 6.66 ERA on the year.

Rich Harden continues to test my patience after allowing 6R (5ER) against the Royals.  Neftali Feliz got the save and looks to be doing his thang.

Rickie Weeks went 3-for-5 with 2R, 2RBI and a HR.  Weeks still strikes out too much and doesn’t walk nearly enough but this may be a sign that his mid-May slump is over.

Recent call-up, Jonathan Lucroy, has a couple hits in his first two games.  Unfortunately, the ballsy catcher saw it fit to try and steal a base — fail.  Lucroy did steal 8 bases in A-ball a couple years ago, but I wouldn’t count on more than 1 at the MLB level.  Lucroy will more than like split the platoon with Kottaras while Zaun’s out.

Both Jhouyls Chacin and Ian Kennedy pitched a’ight games.  If I had to pick one going forward, Chacin’s electric stuff takes it.

Yah, that’s Troy Tulowitzki’s third homer in 3 games and 4th in 5 games.

In THE pitching match-up of the night, Jon Garland tossed 7IP of scoreless baseball for the win but was outpitched by Adam Wainwright who, aside from a solo-knock by Hairston Jr, pitched brilliantly.  Wainwright struck out 12 Padres while only allowing a single walk and four hits — that’s how the cookie crumbles, I guess.

Jose Bautista hit another homer, as did Jeremy Reed and Aaron Hill, but it wasn’t enough.  Aside from the Dingers!, Ervin Santana pitched a masterful game by locating his fastball and getting the Jays to chase that dirty slider.  Santana pitched a complete game 4-hitter with 10Ks — going forward, I wouldn’t be too worried about those HR.

Mike Napoli is on fire: 4HR in his last 5G and 5HR in his last 8G.

Doug Fister got yet another win from a 7 inning, 3R, 2ER, 1K performance.  This guy blows my mind.

Maybe Milton Bradley’s finally rounding into form with a homer and 3RBI last night.

Livan Hernandez is finally regressing!!!!

4ER in 5IP on 7Hits last night.

Grady Sizemore

A Sneak Peak Into The Future! Playoffs?

Playoffs?!?! You’re talking about Playoffs? Playoffs? I’m just hoping we can win a game.

If you’re still scouring the internet for fantasy baseball details, you’re probably still in the hunt, and you’re probably thinkin’ about playoffs.  I figured I’d go old school for a bit, and remind everyone of the power of the schedule.  The schedule is a powerful beast:  Hell, up here in Toronto, people genuinely thought the Blue Jays had a shot of making a playoff run back in May.

The schedule doesn’t effect the top-tier players the same way that it effects the “guess hitters” or the “mistake hitters.”  When a mistake hitter starts facing pitchers that make mistakes, good things tend to happen.

First off, to establish the worst pitching in the big-leagues I used a simple, sloppy method:  I sorted by ERA.  It’s not pretty, nor precise, but it’s definitely close enough.

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Team	W	L	ERA	HR	BB	SO
Indians	49	63	5.07	127	406	685
Orioles	47	66	5.05	143	371	653
Nationals	40	73	5.03	114	426	623
Brewers	55	57	4.86	151	421	759
Angels	67	44	4.76	135	371	740
Twins	54	58	4.73	131	319	699
Royals	44	68	4.71	113	389	797
Padres	48	66	4.57	127	405	829
Athletics	50	63	4.49	112	386	770
Astros	55	58	4.45	125	392	800
Reds	49	63	4.43	138	417	740
Pirates	46	66	4.41	103	397	630
Phillies	62	48	4.37	141	362	783

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I arbitrarly drew the line at Philadelphia, but it seems fair enough considering the park factor and home-run rate.  It’s about the bottom third of the league, give or take.

So who faces these masterful pitching disasters, and how often?

National League:

St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds  & Pittsburgh Pirates

Each of these squads have at least 8 or 9 series in the closing months against the dirty bakers dozen of pitching staffs.

Schumaker, DeRosa and Ludwick are liable to go on monster streaks the rest of the way home.  The Rasmus/Ankiel platoon will also prove to be fairly useful.  The Reds will always be interesting and Johnny Gomes definitely stands out as a player that’ll benefit from a cushy schedule.  Chris Dickerson, who’s potential made everyone squirm a bit, should also provide a jump-start in deeper leagues, given ABs.  Finally, the Pirates — Oh, the Pirates:  If they’re  allowed to run, Milledge and McCutchen could be very interesting.  Steven Pearce is probably also going to put together at least a couple weeks of solid ball — we’re talking deep leagues now, though.

Milwaukee Brewers, Florida Marlins, Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves

Cameron and Lopez are two Brewers that’ll probably benefit the most from the August/September home stretch.  The Marlins are the Marlins, and they’ll swing at just about everything — they all get a bump.  I can’t really deal with the Braves, but Chipper should probably end the season on a tear if he stays healthy.

Finally, I’d like to solely focus on Alfonso Soriano, but Milton Bradley’s going to be pesky good.  Soriano is exactly the kind of player that’ll go on a huge tear when he faces a streak of bad pitching.  I’d love to whole-heartedly recommend Soriano, but the questions surrounding his age and steroid use are numerous.

Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros

A little bump across the board to everyone on these two trains.  I don’t think that I’ll be acquiring them, but I’d think about Stephen Drew.

American League:

Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and the Cleveland Indians.

The Bad Teams in the American League all start facing each other very shortly.  There should be a fair amount of high-scoring games, if over-under’s your thing.

Billy Butler, Carlos Quentin, Orlando Cabrera, all spring to mind as players who’ll benefit.  Furthermore, I’d love to recommend Magglio Ordonez for a nice little bounce back, but he’s so damn fat and old.  If you have bigger reproductive organs than I, please go ahead and make a deal.  Grady Sizemore could well be a top-20 player the rest of the way home, even if the Runs and RBI aren’t there.

Oakland, Anaheim, Baltimore and Seattle also have some interesting match-ups.

This is by no means a fantasy prediction, but rather just a recommendation.  Go ahead and take a quick look at the schedules, and I can promise you that Orlando Cabrera facing 5.00 ERA pitching is going to be better than even the best short-stop facing sub-2.50 ERA pitching down the stretch.

Grady Sizemore

It’s The Offense, Stupid.

Finding a break-out player is damn easy if you know what you’re looking for, and here’s what to look for (in order):

1. Does he play in a good offense?
2. Does he play in a good park?
3. Does he have a skill-set that could translate into major league success given ample playing time?

Ben Francisco of the Cleveland Indians fits the profile perfectly and has the stat-line to prove it:  Over the first couple months of the season Francisco has compiled a .275 AVG / .350 OBP / .458 SLG line to go along with 9 SB.

Here’s why I love me some Louis Ben Francisco going forward, though:  Even with Hafner and Sizemore out, the Indians still put up runs in bunches (The Indians currently rank fourth in runs scored behind only the Rays, Dodgers and Yankees.)  However, Francisco can also be incredibly useful in situations where the Indians aren’t scoring quite as many runs — In a sense, you’re hedging your bets by picking up a player like Francisco.  If he’s not scoring runs, or driving them in, I can promise you that he’ll be stealing bases.

Ben Francisco may have only stole 4 bases in 9 attempts prior to this year, but his minor league numbers show he’s quite the capable base-stealer. Over his entire MiLB career, Francisco went 124-for-158 in stolen base attempts; averaging about 20 SB a year and often surpassing that number when healthy.  Francisco also showcased potential 20-HR power and an above average slugging percentage – it’s actually quite surprising that it took Ben Francisco this long to find regular at-bats at the big-league level.

Francisco’s a legit 20/20 guy, but he does have flaws.  The main concern has been his lack of contact or high K-Rate, and his lack of a batter’s eye. Even while seeing fewer pitches in the zone in 2009, Francisco has managed to swing less, make better contact in the zone, and maintain his relatively high line-drive percentage of 19%.  While Francisco’s 20% K-Rate is still sub-par, he’s more than capable of functioning at a .40 – .50 BB:K rate, given his LD%.

Francisco’s luck indidcaters are generally a wash, his .315 BABIP and 10.2 HR/FB percent are nothing spectacular one way or another.  What’s intriguing about Francisco is his brand-spankin’ new line-up spot with the rash of Indians injuries.  Francisco’s spent the previous two games batting 2nd in the line-up squished between the hot-hitting Asdrubal Cabrera and the healthy Victor Martinez. Whether or not Francisco can stick in the two-hole largely depends on this stretch of games that Sizemore’s missing.  Even if Francisco gets thrown back to the ass end of the Indians line-up, he’ll still be batting between the Garkos and Shoppach’s of the world which isn’t all that terrible.

Of the players with 9 or more steals, only Jason Barlett, Matt Kemp, Torii Hunter, Derek Jeter, Brian Roberts, Ian Kinsler, Nelson Cruz, Jayson Werth, Vernon Wells, and Mark Reynolds can lay claim to 5 or more HR.  I’ve obviously tinkered with the stats, but it does showcase Francisco’s unique blend of power and speed.  All that’s realistically missing, assuming Francisco can maintain a .270 BA (which shouldn’t be a problem,) are the RUNS and RBI.

In fantasy baseball, owners take a lot of stupid risks that often yield very little pay-out.  Rather than taking a risk on an often injured player or a 20-year old kid, I’d much rather bet that Ben Francisco finds a way to permanently move up in the line-up.  If Francisco sticks atop the Indians’ line-up, his 65 RBI / 65 R line suddenly becomes a 75 RBI / 80 RUN season without Francisco doing a damn thing.

Considering Francisco’s only seen 32 at-bats against left-handed pitchers and is currently exhibiting a reverse platoon split, there’s definitely room for improvement. I’m sure when all’s said and done, Francisco will come tantalizingly close to posting a 20/20 season and there’s a  50/50 shot that each of the starting outfielders for the Cleveland Indians post 20/20 seasons. Shin-Soo Choo may be garnering the majority of the hype with his .296 / 30 R / 7 HR / 31 RBI / 6 SB – line, but Ben Francisco isn’t a bad option either.

Grady Sizemore

Magic Mark: 40 Stolen Bases.

Boogity, Boogity, Boogity. Let’s go racing.  Each year, somewhere around ten guys go and swipe forty bases. Occasionally, someone will go and destroy the 40-SB mark and post a number like 68 (Tavares, 2008) or 78 (Reyes, 2007).

Only the total stolen bases will be factored when evaluating potential 40-SB guys in 2009.  I’ll include CS (caught stealing) and NSB (net stolen bases) if they stand out, or give some variety of insight — but I wont be ranking the players based on either of these statistics.

Value Predicated On Speed and Speed Alone:

Willy Tavares – Cincinnati Reds: Tavares managed to snag himself a 6.25M dollar deal with the Reds this off-season, paying him 2.25M in 2009 and 4M in 2010. Tavares does what he does, and does it well — He steals bases at a great clip: 68 SB in 75 attempts.  Recently Tavares dropped a WORD-BOMB courtesy of Dayton’s Daily-est of All Daily News:

Taveras, newest leadoff hitter for the Cincinnati Reds, doesn’t change expressions when he says, “I can steal 100 bases this year.”

That’s because Taveras believes he should get 700 plate appearances this year. He also believes he can hit .300 and raise his on-base average to .350.

“Do all that and, yes, I can see steal 100 bases,” he said.

While I’m not particularly high on guys like Tavares, last year’s .251 average wasn’t indicative of Tavares’ actual ability.  Tavares is more likely to go and put up a .275 to .280 average. Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel have him coming in at .282, .273, and .276 respectively. Competition: Chris Dickerson.

Michael Bourn – Houston Astros: With Bourn, you’re getting a terrible batting average. A Batting Average so bad, he may eventually swing himself out of the line-up. Hopefully last year’s .229 average was a mistake that can be improved upon, and even hiking it up to .250 would exponentially raise his value.

Bourn recently inked himself a 1-year 434K contract, and while he didn’t show that a contract year meant an increase in production last year — he hopefully does this year. Bourn went for 41 SB in 2008, and was only nabbed 10 times. If the speedy Bourn can keep his butt in the line-up, I’d expect an increase across the board.  With Carlos Lee back to health, Bourn’s opportunities may decline but he should still manage to top 40 stolen bases. Competition: OBP

Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins: In 2008, his first full season in the bigs, Carlos Gomez went 33 for 44 in the stolen base category. Unfortunately, like Michael Bourn, Gomez has some serious OBP issues which are magnified by a ridiculous K%.  There’s no conceivable reason that your lead-off hitter of the future should be striking out a quarter of the time while only walking 4.6% of the time.  This is unfortunately in-line with Gomez’s minor league numbers. There is a glimmer of hope though: Gomez managed to only strike-out 16.9% of the time, while walking 9.9% of the time in Triple-A in 2007.  Unfortunately when Gomez was called up in 2007, he posted a 21.7 strike-out percentage to go with a 6.0% walk rate.

If Gomez can maintain the starting CF job the entire year, he should have no problems getting to the magic mark of 40-SB.  Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins have a lot of young-talented-outfielders.  Right now, it’s shaping up with Delmon Young in left, Gomez in Center, and Cuddyer in right, with Kubel DHing. This leaves Denard Span as the fourth outfielder, and Jason Pridie out in the cold.  If Gomez can’t hack it, Span will step in and flourish. Competition: Getting the Bat on the Ball and Denard Span’s picture perfect smile.

Jerry Owens – Chicago White Sox: Owens has become a master of bringing the suck, but he can still fly. Owens currently sits atop the CF depth chart for your Chicago White Sox, but Ozzie Guillen tends to believe otherwise hinting that Wise has the inside gig on the starting CF job. It’ll be interesting to see if Owens can wrangle-up enough at-bats with Brian Anderson and DeWayne Wise out there.  In 2007, Owens managed 93 Games for the Sox and proceeded to steal 32 Bases (went 32/4o) — Good. If Owens can manage 450-500 AB in 2009, he has a realistic shot at 40 SB.

Unfortunately,  he brings nothing else to the table and will more than likely kill your average.  Right now, it does appear to be one of those full fledged “open-competitions” that we always hear about.  Monitor Owens and the chatter coming out of Sox camp over the net few weeks.  Competition: Brian N. Anderson and DeWayne Wise.

Rajai Davis – Oakland Athletics: Davis is quick-fast, yet built like a powder-keg.  He falls into the “not-wanna-fuck-wit” category. Davis does however have some issues, and most of those issues fall into the “baseball-skills” category.  His OPS should be better than the .643 he posted last year, but Davis should be a waiver-wire-flyer.  To make matters worse, it looks as though Ryan Sweeney may be snagging the starting center-fielder at bats.  Davis has got a shot at 40, but he needs at-bats.  Competition: Ryan Sweeney, Eric Patterson, Travis Buck — Who knows.  They’re all just keeping the seat warm for Cunningham.

San Francisco Giants Second Base Gig - This’ll be interesting. So long as Fransden doesn’t hold onto the second base gig — there will be speed. Whether it’s Velez, or Emmanuel Burriss, there’s going to be some stolen base attempts on a pretty God-Awful Giants squad.  The only way that anyone gets to 40, is a full-time gig or an injury to Renteria.  A very mediocre batting average should also be expected.

A Nice Average or OBP Means MOAR! MOAR! MOAR! Runs.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox: Ellsbury isn’t going to bring a whole lot of power, but you’ll snag 5 – 10 HR from him.  The value with Ellsbury comes from his average, as last year he put up a .280 average and his minor league numbers lead all of the robots to believe he should improve on that number (Bill James: .302, CHONE: .297, Marcel: .289, Oliver: .284)

With Ellsbury batting around the .290 mark and getting on base at a .350 clip; he should be scoring a boat-load of runs. There’s no reason the potent Red Sox line-up shouldn’t be lead off with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz/Youkilis.

With that said, Ellsbury swiped 50 bags in 2008 and should be somewhere around the same mark in 2009. Assuming Pedroia has a bit of a drop-off from his MVP season of 2008; Ellsbury should be given at least the same number of opportunities to steal — if not more. Competition: Ellsbury doesn’t have any competition, but you’re more than likely going to have to overpay to get him as every draft has at least one Red Sox nut.

Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle  Mariners: Ichiro has done the same thing for as I can remember, and there’s no reason to fault him for consistently putting up 200 Hits.  Ichiro is getting older however, so it’d make sense to expect a slight down-turn in his 2009 stats.

Ichiro wont bat .372 again, let alone .351 which he did as recently has 2007. Ichiro will hit .310-.320ish and with the awfulness that is the Mariners; You can safely assume he’ll steal at least 35 Bases.  Whether or not he gets to 40 will largely depend on how much he runs, obviously.  Last year Ichiro went and stole 43 Bases while only getting caught 4 times.

Most of the prediction models have Ichiro drastically declining in the stolen base category. Ichiro doesn’t age like other players born in ’73 though, Ichiro’s a machine. Expecting 100 Runs and 50 RBIs to go with a .300+ average and 35-40 SB seems about right. Competition: Father time, and the degree of suck Seattle brings to the table.

Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts just re-upped for another 4 years at 10M a pop with the Baltimore Orioles. Whether or not this is good for Roberts’ fantasy value is up in the air, but it does make projecting his value quite a bit easier. Roberts has leveled off over the past couple years, and like Ichiro, it’d make sense to expect a small decline.

As the Orioles are in the stacked AL East, I’d imagine the Orioles will have anyone that can run, blazin’ the base-paths. In 2007, Roberts stole 50 bases while only getting nabbed 7 times.  Roberts followed it up with a 40SB season, with only 10 CS.  Roberts has shown he’s capable of stealing at a rate that’s productive, rather than just stealing to steal.  With that said, 40SB, 100R, 55RBI, 5-10HR, and a .280-.290 AVG.  That’s pretty solid for an aging middle infielder.

Roberts put up a career high 17% K rate last year, and when you couple that with a slight decline in walk rate — we may have a problem. However, both of these are negated by his increase in Batting Average which makes clear his intentions: Be Aggressive, Be, Be, Aggressive.  However, if he keeps up this approach his counting stats will drop off far quicker with an age induced decline in skill. Competition: Age and the AL EAST pitching.

Chone Figgins – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 2008 wasn’t a banner year for Chone and after three consecutive years of 150+ games (2004-2006 inc.), Chone has put up two straight years of 115ish games. So what should we expect from Figgins?

Bill James’ robot has Chone at 153 Games, and 60 SB attempts.  This seems a wee bit optimistic.  Using this model, Chone comes out with 43SB and 17CS to go along with 101R, 56RBI, 5HR, and a .287 AVG.  The line would obviously make Chone Figgins one of the more valuable MI/CI.

Over the past couple years of 115 Games, Figgins has improved upon his BB% and in turn, OBP. 2007′s OBP of .393 may be a smidgen optimistic, but a replication of 2008′s OBP of .367 seems about right.

The Angels’ entire line-up is an injury waiting to happen, including Figgins. If Figgins can stay healthy, he’ll find himself a place to play even if Brandon Wood cashes in on his unlimited potential. Competition: His Health, and the Health of Others.

Kaz Matsui – Houston Astros: Here we’ve got a pretty simple analysis.  Matsui is gettin’ old, he was born in ’75, and he hasn’t played more than 114G in his MLB career. With that said, Matsui went for 20 SB in 96 Games in 2008 and 32SB in 104 games in 2007 as a member of the Rockies.  Matsui doesn’t get caught, and the only thing standing in his way is health.  Competition: General Health, including but not limited to, Anal Fissures.

Josh Anderson – Atlanta Braves: If Anderson can take hold of the Braves’ starting center-fielder job, he’ll be dangerous.  In 40 Games, Anderson stole 10 bases. Anderson has stole 40 bases in the last three Minor League seasons, and he’s predicted to be at least a capable hitter for average. If Anderson can post a .285 average, he’ll be a valuable cog in the Braves outfield.

Here’s what the Robots have to say: Bill James-132G, 39SB, 10CS. CHONE-140G, 33SB, 10CS. Oliver has Anderson racking up 631 AB, which is the most of the bunch but fails to list SB numbers.  Competition: Early in the season, Blanco. Late in the season, Heyward or Schaffer.

Juan Pierre – Los Angeles Dodgers: Well it appears as though the Dodgers’ fall-back plans have signed with Washington (Dunn) and the Angels (Abreu). So if Manny Ramirez doesn’t sign, it looks like Pierre will get his guaranteed AB.  If Manny does sign, Pierre will be relegated to a time-share with Andre Ethier. Pierre can steal 40 bases even if he only gets 115 Games.  His batting average will be respectable, so he wont hurt you. Competition: Manny for ABs. Hudson and Furcal for a Run-Scoring position in the line-up.

Coco Crisp – Kansas City Royals: The Royals traded Ramon Ramirez, noted ass scratcher, to the Sox in return for Crisp.  It looks initially like both teams got what they were looking for, so world peace shall ensue. Throwing Crisp in here is a testament to the “fuck-off” factor that allows mediocre players to become superstars once they leave Big-Market squads.  No reason to believe Crisp will steal 40, but he’s definitely capable of it while posting a half-decent batting average.

Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies: Thank the Lord for Victorino’s lack-luster start last year, as it allowed me to acquire him in a whole ‘ella lot of leagues. All of the Robots have Victorinio coming in somewhere between 25 and 30SB which seems a smidgen low, as they probably factor in Victorino’s minor league numbers. In 2001, 2002, Victorino was stealing 40+ bases and then for some reason unknown to me (yes, I’m lazy); Victorino stopped stealing bases from 2003-2006.

This has clearly fooled the Robots, who are generally pretty wise. If you just forget those years happened, the Robots will probably spit out a number in the high 30′s which puts Victorino close enough to 40 to warrant consideration.  Victorino doesn’t get to 40 SB in my book, but he’ll come close. It does indeedly do look as though the Phils’ outfield is set in stone with Ibanez in left, Victorino in center, and the Genkins/Werth time-share in right. Competition: The Robots

Finally, The Guys That’ll Actually Help You (In Most Categories)

If there’s the potential for at least 15-20 HR to go along with those 40 SB, here’s the category.  Obviously most of these guys will be top-5 rounders, or top-5 picks for that matter. Unless there’s a glaring hole, I won’t explain why you need to draft Grady, Jose, or Hanley.

Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies: Rollins is coming ridiculously close to falling into the previous category, alongside Ichiro Suzuki.  However, he’s clearly shown he has the potential to kill-smash the ball. In 2006, Rollins went for 25 HR and 36 SB and 2007 brought a career season with, 30HR and 41SB.

With that said, Rollins only hit 11HR while stealing 47 Stolen bases in only 137 Games.  The Robots tend to think Rollins is going to come in with 17-18 HR with 35+ SB. Rollins consistently puts up a solid K-Rate, and a half-decent BB-Rate.  The Phils are solid, and you should expect a nice little bounce-back year from Rollins.  Competition: Health. I’m not quite ready to toss in the “Age” problem yet, even though Rollins is 30 years old.

Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays: Crawford should be able to hit 15HR in 2009, even though he’s had a downturn in power since 2006. Crawford has the potential of bringing some of the best value in your draft, or any draft. Crawford was essentially a lock for 50SB each and every year, until he went and dropped 25 SB on all of his less than pleased owners, in 2008.

The Robots expect Crawford to bounce back to the mid-to-high 30′s, but I’d assume he’d easily eclipse 40 unless something goes wrong. Crawford also comes in as a very consistent .300 hitter, that’ll help you not just in Runs but RBI as well in an ever improving Rays’ line-up. Competition: Health, and Plate Approach.

Jose Reyes – New York Mets: After 60 in ’05, 64 in ’06, and then 78 in ’07, it made sense to expect Reyes to go for 56 SB in 2008. Reyes however, should have developed more than 16HR power by now.  He came in and everyone looked at him and figured upon 20HR power, yet he hasn’t quite closed in on that number.

Reyes may need to sacrafice some speed to get past that magical 20HR mark, but almost any fantasy owner would be happy with 45 SB, and 22-23HR over 55SB and 14HR.

There’s no reason to expect anything but a full, healthy, and productive 2009 from Jose Reyes.  Competition: Your expectations, and Random Injuries.

B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays: After 24 HR, and 22 SB in only 129 Games in 2007 greatness was expected from Mr. Upton.  Greatness was achieved, but it involved a massive decrease in power, and a massive increase in “speed”.

It’d be wise to assume that Upton will level off, and he’ll spit out the average of the previous two seasons:  18-20HR and 35-40SB seems about right. Upton was a sure-fire first round pick if he ever managed to figure out second base, but now it looks like he’s just a very good player at a very deep outfield position.

Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians: Sizemore is about as safe as you can get in a first round pick.  Most fantasy hounds are delighted with the 30HR power, and are willing to sacrafice the 15-20pt drop in batting average. Realistically, the 38 SB will probably decline rather than bounce up to the magical, mystical, 40SB mark but everything else is a beaut.  Expect round about 100RBI, 100R, 25-30HR, 30-35SB, and a .275 AVG. Competition: Your Draft Position.

Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins: After posting 51SB in his first two big-league seasons, Ramirez decided that he wanted to add 33HR power to his repertoire. Realistically, I’d bank on a decrease in power and a return to the 45-50SB area.  Ramirez’s production will depend on how the rest of the line-up fairs.  If guys get on base, Ramirez will mash. If something goes wrong, Hanley will steal.  Quite Simply: The production will be there, but whether or not the crazy-value comes from SB or HR is still up in the air.

Too Many Variables, Not Enough DATA! The Youngings

Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins: Not often do you see so much discussion on a top-prospect. People either love Maybin or hate everything that he stands for. The people who love Cameron Maybin are the “eyeball test” folk who believe you can judge a baseball player by watching him play.  The people who aren’t all that fond of Cameron Maybin are the stats geeks.  By no means do the stats-geeks think Maybin can’t contribute at the Major League level, they just take issue with the “next great player / five tool player” tag that follows Maybin wherever he goes. Normally when Florida wants a prospect however, he ends up being pretty darn solid.

With that said, I’m not sure what category Cameron Maybin will fall into.  His batting average may hurt you, and he could easily end up posting Carlos Gomez type numbers. There’s a great article here, which pretty much expresses how everyone with a clue feels about Maybin. Maybin does have solid power potential, which could easily develop into great power potential considering his position.

Maybin could end up being a top-50 player this year, if all goes well — real well.  Florida’s got a solid staff, but their offense is going to be iffy.  They’d be better suited having a guy who can get on-base ahead of the boom-or-bust squad that is Cantu, Uggla, McPherson, and Ross.

Competition: The Minors and AVG.

Elvis Andrus – Texas Rangers: Whoa, Nelly. I like Andrus quite a bit this year, and if you can understand what you’re getting from him — he’ll be a steal.  The one thing you’re guaranteed is speed, please understand that. Everything after stolen bases is just gravy, and expecting more from him could land you in hot water.

With that said, Andrus could realistically bat .275 and force his way to the top of the Rangers line-up which would make him into an AVG, R, and SB player.

Now for the problems: He doesn’t walk enough, and he strikes out to much.  Asking him to bat in the top half of the order is asking a lot.  He has very little power to speak of, but should eventually grow into some.

Back to the Good-ness: Andrus, with a full-time gig, could steal 50-something bases.

Competition: Maturity as a hitter.

Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates: I’m not buying it yet, but he looks to at least have one of the outfield spots on lock-down.  He hasn’t stole 40 in the minors, but came close enough last year, posting 34 SB in 512 PA for the Pirates triple-A club.

Just a name to keep in mind…

Alcides Escobar – Milwaukee Brewers: Hrm. Maybe the Brewers can find a way to work Escobar into the mix, as right now he’s stuck behind Rickie Weeks and the J-iest of Hardys. If they could move Hardy to third, and take Bill Hall out back behind the woodshed, we’d be set.

Escobar stole 34 bags in 131 Games for the Brewers triple-a affiliate last year, so if he plays all year (he won’t) he could easily break the magical 40SB mark.

…just another guy to keep an eye on. Hopefully if I talk about putting Bill Hall out of his misery often enough, he’ll just….give up.

I’m not buying 40SB, But In Case You Do…

Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers: Joe Torre let him run, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll be throttled this year. Everyone’s favourite sleeper this side of Josh Hamilton last year; Kemp exhibited some traits that don’t bode well for a repeat. 7% BB Rate is worrisome by itself, but when combined with his strike-out rate of 25% — We’ve got a problem.  Kemp’s .363 BABIP is also curious but if the Robots are willing to believe Kemp can maintain it, I’ll buy it. I’m sure his 23% line drive rate has something to do with it.

So, why don’t I think Kemp will hit 40 after posting 35 in his first full season? It’s the economy, stupid.  Wait, no.  It has everything to do with his power numbers, though.  Kemp should easily develop into a 30 HR threat as soon as this year, but it’ll largely depend upon his plate approach.  This is a firm view I have, and it has very little to do with data or statistics, but everything to do with common sense.

If a player is ever described as a ridiculous athlete, he gets to choose whether he hits home runs or steals bases. Of course, there is a very small minority that can post a 30/30 and Kemp may well be one of these guys. Realistically, it makes more sense to look at Kemp as a 25/25 threat for the next five years rather than an 18HR/40SB threat.

Alex Rios – Toronto Blue Jays: Cito Gaston will not have it.  As regular visitor of the Rogers Centre, I’d like to see Rios up the power and dial-down the speed.  Of course if the Jays stink up the joint, which they surely will; There’s no reason to think that any Jay who wants to run will be prohibited from doing so.  I think last year was Rios’ ceiling, stolen-base wise.  A more realistic projection for 2009, would be about the 22-26SB range.

Rafael Furcal – Los Angeles Dodgers: I don’t even need to read this article, as the headline surely expresses every concern you could possibly have, “Can Rafael Furcal Overcome Injuries?“. Last time Raffy played a whole season, he stole 37 bases; The season before that he stole 46 Bases.

Proof Enough for Me!

Last year in limited action, Raffy was still running — stealing 8 bases in 36 games, or 164 PA which is about a fifth of the season. So, 40 is a possibility. Bam!

Proof Enough for Me!

An Outside Shot — Like Real Outside

Felipe Lopez and Eric Byrnes of Youuuurrrrrrrrr Arizona Diamondbacks: Lopez stole 44 bases in 2006 and before Byrnes was the “cool guy” on Fox’s baseball telecast he stole 50 in 2007.

Alfonso Soriano – Chicago Cubs: Remember when Soriano went 40-40 for the Nationals? Or went 35-35, two years in a row as a young Yankee? As a member of the Chicago Cubs, Soriano has almost stolen 40 bases. The problem is, it’s been 19 SB each year or 38 SB in 244 Games.

It could happen though…

Grady Sizemore

Top Fantasy Baseball Outfielders for 2009: Top 40? Top 60? Top 100? Who Knows.

There’s a lot of solid outfielders that can contribute to your fantasy squad.  Outfielders are like Starting Pitchers, there’s just too damn many of them. I tend to believe that ranking OF against each other is tough, as you have to choose a strategy and adjust your OF selections to fit that strategy.

The outfield positions will bring the most value to the table, and you’re liable to find the biggest steals here, as in most cases defense isn’t the largest priority.

Now, onto fantasy baseball’s 2009 top-whatever outfielders.

1. Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Grady Sizemore	634	33	38	101	90	0.268	0.374	0.502	0.75	0.876

Sizemore tops the list, at least for now. The only fault on Sizemore is his batting average, which he more than takes care of with a .374 OBP.  Most people are more than willing to live with a .275 average, as long as the other categories are amazing.  Sizemore is almost assured another 30/30 season, and his RBI and RUN totals should increase with an improved Indians offense.

If you’re planning on grabbing cheap steals later in the draft, which is a solid option, maybe Sizemore isn’t the choice for #1.  You’d probably be safer hedging your bets with a high BA guy like Hamilton, Holliday, or Manny as drafting a Carlos Gomez, Michael Bourn, or Jerry Owens tends to lead to a rather predictable drop in BA.

If you’re a believer in drafting well rounded fantasy players, then Sizemore is a great building block — but personally I find you pay more for the all around guys.

2. Manny Ramirez – Free Agent, Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Manny Ramirez	552	37	3	102	121	0.332	0.43	0.601	0.7	1.031

This could get ugly, but Manny Ramirez is one hell of a  baseball player.  It looks as though the Dodgers wont be giving many anything more than a year or two, so you can bet Manny will be giving his best.

If the Dodgers pay Manny too little, he’ll decide he doesn’t care for this whole baseball-game.  If they reward his idiocy with a long term contract, god help them because Manny will play when Manny wants to play.

With that said, Manny Ramirez isn’t going to run but everything else is the picture of perfection. In a potent Dodgers line-up his R and RBI totals should be terrific.  Manny’s batting average can fix a lot of high risk/reward guys and gives you a terrific safety net.

If Manny actually plays for the Dodgers, he’ll be better than Braun or Hamilton. If Manny and Boras decide to keep shitting the bed, who knows how far he’ll drop.

3. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Braun	611	37	14	92	106	0.285	0.335	0.553	0.33	0.888

Ryan Braun is a solid pick here, and he’s average across the board when you compare him to the elite guys. He’ll hit somewhere around 35HR, and steal somewhere around 10-15 bases. Braun’s got the potential to steal up to about 20 bases, but who knows if he’ll run that much.

The .285 average, and a combined 200 runs and rbi make a solid outfielder. Braun’s still very young and he’ll continue to improve so long as he maintains his plate discipline.

4. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Josh Hamilton	624	32	9	98	130	0.304	0.371	0.53	0.51	0.901

Hamilton was a steal last year, and now he’s ranked as the fourth best outfielder.  Who know’s if the wheels with just fall off, but I suppose you have to look at Hamilton in the same light as a productive sophomore.

There’s no sophomore slump in sight, and you can place a bit more confidence in his abilities than you would a normal rookie.

Hamilton proved to be an early season RBI machine, and Texas’ line-up is quite the machine. A 300 average to go with 35 HR, and ridiculous RBI numbers seem like a solid bet.

A .5 BB/K ratio should be enough to keep your doubts at bay.  Look for Hamilton to be productive throughout the season, and there’s no reason to expect a return to past-drug-addicted-form.

5. Matt Holliday – Oakland Athletics

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Matt Holliday	539	25	28	107	88	0.321	0.409	0.538	0.71	0.947

Matt Holliday’s numbers last year were terrific for his 539 AB, however without the trade to Oakland — things could change.

There was a recent article on fangraphs examining whether or not Holliday’s stolen base numbers would drop with the switch to Billy Beane’s Money-Ball loving style, and the answer was no. If Holliday continues to be successful stealing bases, the Athletics will let him run.

Aside from that, Holliday is going to an extreme pitchers park and leaving Coors’ field.  Problem.  Holliday is also switching leagues, and may take a while to adjust to American League pitching. Problem.

With that said, Holliday is a great ball player with a great eye.  He’ll still produce solid HR numbers, but most of his power will translate to gappers and extra-base hits.  This is good news for his RBI totals.

Since the departure of Giambi, the A’s really haven’t had anyone to knock in the trillions of guys they get on base with walks.  Now, they have that guy in Holliday to go along with the return of Jason Giambi.  Good news for A’s fans, Good news for Holliday owners.

6. Carlos Beltran – New York Mets

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Beltran	606	27	25	116	112	0.284	0.376	0.5	0.96	0.876

Beltran’s a solid player, and you could rank him as high as second in this list. The top-tier outfielders really tend to blend together, and you should draft one based on your strategy in the later rounds rather than who you think will perform best.  Beltran and Braun tend to be guys that’ll just contribute across the board, so if you’re solely drafting value: these are your guys.

Rarely will you win a draft with your first or second round pick, so it may be wise to play the safest bet on the board which favours Beltran.  Beltran’s 2005 mid-life crisis seems like eons ago, and he’s become a solid bet for 30/30 each and every year. While he’s never managed to get there as a member of the Mets; It’s a fair assumption to say his HR and SB will add up to around 60.

There appears to be a slight decline in Beltran’s power, but 30HR seems to be about the standard mark for prediction models.

…and then the sure things ended.

7. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
B.J. Upton	531	9	44	85	67	0.273	0.383	0.401	0.72	0.784

Upton’s numbers are enticing when you see how many at-bats he managed.  Maybe injuries continue to plague Upton, but more likely he’ll Man-Up and get it done.

The SLG percentage is worrisome for someone who was supposed to have it all, but as with many young players — he’ll grow into it.  All of the other indicators are there, and if you’re looking for a little bit of risk with a lot of upside look no further.

Upton could easily hit 50 steals to go along with 20 HR.  Lets just hope he stays healthy.

8. Alfonso Soriano

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alfonso Soriano	453	29	19	76	75	0.28	0.344	0.532	0.42	0.876

Everything looks good in Soriano land, other than the 453 AB.  Soriano is another guy who’s got a shot at going 30/30 but he’s far from a sure thing.  Soriano should be higher, especially if he finds his swing early in the season.

Playing in a stacked Cubs line-up keeps the risk to a minimum.  Basically, we’ve got ourselves another referendum on whether or not Alfonso Soriano can stay healthy.

9. Carlos Quentin – Chicago White Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Quentin	480	36	7	96	100	0.288	0.394	0.571	0.83	0.965

There comes a time in every can’t miss prospects life, where he’s just got ball the fuck out.  Carlos Quentin decides last year was that time.  If not for an injury that annoyed the hell out of fantasy owners enjoying the ride: Carlos Quentin would have been your AL MVP.

10. Jason Bay – Boston Red Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jason Bay	577	31	10	111	101	0.286	0.373	0.522	0.59	0.895

Commence operation over-valued. We have lift-off.  I’ve yet to play in a fantasy league where a Red Sox player is drafted ’round ’bout where they should go.  Jason Bay is a stellar talent, but odds are he’ll go too high.

If Bay doesn’t go in the first round, he’ll contribute across the board. So much so that his R and RBI totals will just look dandy with a health Red Sox line-up surrounding him for an entire year.

11. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Matt Kemp	606	18	35	93	76	0.29	0.34	0.459	0.3	0.799

It’s fun to predict improvement for absolutely no reason other than a gut feeling and the time-tested, but useless, mantra: “He’ll get better with age”.

Matt Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio isn’t pretty and his OBP of .340 isn’t all that sexy when you consider he’s a .290 hitter.

But Kemp’s young, and he’s definitely got a whole-hella lot of upside.  His HR should be closer to his steals this year. Whether or not that means his HR go up or his steals come down, is up to you.

12. Carlos Lee – Houston Astros

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Lee	436	28	4	61	100	0.314	0.368	0.569	0.76	0.937

Lee’s going to be a steal, wherever you draft him.  While throwing together this list, I even forgot about his all around awesomeness.

A .937 OPS will get it done, and done well. 28 HR in 436 AB also tends to get it done.  After so many years of 600+ AB, Bill James has him the highest at 573 AB for the 2009.  If Carlos returns to form and tops 600 AB, he’ll be a top 3 or 4 OF and probably put up Josh Hamilton type numbers.

Just keep an eye on Carlos Lee’s health and definitely mark him down in your under-ranked superstar category.

13. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Markakis	595	20	10	106	87	0.306	0.406	0.491	0.88	0.897

Nick Markakis is another guy with all-world talent, who can smash the shit out of the baseball if he chooses that option.

With an OBP of over .400 in 2008, he’s primed for a break out year — and I do mean breakout.  I have Markakis putting up stellar numbers in an Orioles offense that’ll prove its worth.  The Orioles seem to have all the pieces required to put together a solid season on offense.

Nick Markakis should hit 30 HR and drive in a bundle.  Maybe I’ll move Markakis up at some point.

…and now onto the mess that is stolen bases

14. Jacoby Elsbury – Boston Red Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jacoby Ellsbury	554	9	50	98	47	0.28	0.336	0.394	0.51	0.729

Ellsbury can boogy, but there’s no reason to think that he’ll improve dramatically on his HR numbers. Somewhere between 8 and 13 HR for the 2009 season seems about right, but you’re not buying Ellsbury based on HR.

Ellsbury’s stolen base numbers should float somewhere in the high-forties to low-fifties, and his runs scored should improve.

15. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ichiro Suzuki	686	6	43	103	42	0.31	0.361	0.386	0.78	0.747

Everything that Ichiro can control will remain consistent with career numbers, but I haven’t the slightest clue whom Ichiro Suzuki is going to drive in or who’s going to knock him in.

Maybe this is the year that Ichiro says screw it, and knocks out 20 HR.  He’s definitely got the power, but I’d expect a downturn in numbers not an upswing.

16. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Shane Victorino	570	14	36	102	58	0.293	0.352	0.447	0.65	0.799

A few more HR than Ichiro and a few less steals.  The BA isn’t going to top .300 but Victorino is a solid player, that’ll greatly benefit  from  a Jimmy Rollins comeback-year.

If Victorino can get off to a better start than 2008, he’ll have a terrific year and more than likely be a top tier-2 outfielder.

…and now back to reality

17. Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Vladimir Guerrero	541	27	5	85	91	0.303	0.365	0.521	0.66	0.886

How the mighty have fallen, or aged, or have just been plagued by a back-pain induced slump. 150 Games seems about right, which should bring Guerrero closer to the 30 HR, 100 R mark than he was last year.

Everything else should be the Guerrero you’ve come to expect.  About 110 RBI, and a .310 batting average.  There’s a good amount of risk that comes with Guerrero, but there’s also an insane amount of reward.

The benefit of rostering Guerrero, is you’ll generally know ahead of time when he’s getting a day off.

18. Magglio Ordonez – Detroit Tigers

This isn’t annoying. I type for 2 hours only to have my data erased by WordPress. God love it.  Remember when Magglio hit .363 and drove in 130-something runs?  How about we average the last two years of his career and stick him here.  The Detroit Tigers will be better.

19. Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays

Remember when Carl Crawford was a first round pick in almost every league? He’s still that good.  2008 was a down-year but he’ll fix that quick-fast.

20. Curtis Granderson – Detroit Tigers

Remember when everyone talked about Granderson being the only guy to hit x number of doubles, triples, and homers..  ever?  Well he started last year like crap, and just managed to be average for the majority of the year.  He’ll score a lot of runs, and come pretty close to the 25+ bases he stole 2 years ago.

21. Alex Rios – Toronto Blue Jays

Remember how the scouts said Alexi Rios was a 4.5 tool player, and that he should develop power to go with his massive frame? Well, instead of improving on his 24 HR season, he regressed but managed to steal 30+ bases.  Screwy, huh?

22. Adam Dunn – Free Agent

Dunn’s a top 10 OF if your league uses OBP instead of average. Dunn’s also a great choice if you decide to go ahead and punt average.  However, if you’re just playing it based on value you’re going to need 2 guys to cancel out the potential for another .240 season from Dunn. The upside is he only registers 500 AB, making that .240 a bit more tolerable.

23. Corey Hart – Milwaukee Brewers

I hate great white hopes, especially fast ones.  Hart Swings at everything and it’s annoying, but he gets the job done none the less. He’s got a boat-load of upside and he’ll be cashing in on that upside sooner rather than later.

24. Raul Ibanez – Philadelphia Phillies

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Raul Ibanez	635	23	2	85	110	0.293	0.358	0.479	0.58	0.837

Ibanez is undervalued each and every year, and yet he produces each and every year.  This may be a reach, but the switch to Citizens Bank Ballpark should do more than offset the league switch.  Maybe you’re best bet is to trade for Ibanez a month into the season before he’s found his grove.

Either way, in that line-up Ibanez is going to be dangerous. Some of his doubles, will turn into homers as soon as he realize he’s no longer in baseball hell.

25. Bobby Abreu – Free Agent

Where does he land? I dont know. Rumors have him going to the south side of Chicago.  I wouldn’t expect 20/20 but this old guy can still boogy.

26. Jermaine Dye – Chicago White Sox

An oldy but a goody! Expect another slight decline in Dye’s numbers

27. Nate McLouth – Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m not sure if he’ll repeat the power numbers, but bad teams seem to steal.  I’m just not sure if he can repeat.

28. Ryan Ludwick – St. Louis Cardinals

Same holds true for Ludwick.  Batting between Pujols and Glaus will make even the worst power-hitter viable.  With Glaus out, who know’s what kind of pitches Ludwick will see in 2009.

29. Johnny Damon – New York Yankees

Will Johnny Damon stay healthy in a massively crowded Yankees outfield / designated hitter mess? That is the question.

30. Torii Hunter – Anaheim Angels

He just keeps producing.  In 6 years, this is what Chris Young will be.

31. Pat Burrell – Tampa Bay Rays

A change of scenery should be nice for Burrell. Hopefully he can break his streak of being down-right awful after posting a great season.

32. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks

Speed, Power, everything you look for in a young kid.  Unfortunately he has no eye, which terrifies most of the younger Diamondback fans.

33. Brad Hawpe – Colorado Rockies

Improved on his splits, and has a boat-load of power.  Could finally put it together?

34. Xavier Nady – New York Yankees

Another piece of the crowded Yankees outfield.  If there is one thing that’s certain in life, it’s that Xavier Nady will have a ridiculous first month and a half of the season.

35. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros

Still young enough to remember what it’s like to hit above .300 with power and speed.

36. Lastings Milledge – Washington Nationals

Breakthrough year? Yes please.  I like each and every part of this Nationals outfield, with Milledge leading the way.

37. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds

When you’re universally considered one of the top prospects in baseball, you’re normally pretty good.  Bruce had a mediocre 2008 after a torrid start to the season.  Temper your enthusiasm, but he’ll be great as soon as this year.

38. Jack Cust – Oakland Athletics

Power o’ Plenty.  With the amount of low-average guys out there, i’m starting to think that this may be the perfect year to punt AVG.

39. Nick Swisher – New York Yankees

With that said, if you’re going to go ahead and punt average go ahead and pick Nick.  Swisher’s skill-set remained the same, but he got very very unlucky.  He’ll score a lot of runs, and get on-base a tonne.

40. Eric Byrnes – Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks outfield situation is pretty confusing, but when Byrnes plays he’s a difference maker.  Since he’s already injured both his left and right hamstring, there’s nothing left for him to hurt — right?

41. Jason Werth – Philadelphia Phillies

I’m a huge Jason Werth fan, and i’m hoping he gets the lions share of the AB in right field.  Geoff Jenkins is nice, but he isn’t a body double for “The Edge”.

42. Mike Cameron – Milwaukee Brewers

Another low-average guy that you may just want to own. He hit 25 HR and stole 17 Bases in only a 140 games last year.  If you can deal / cope with the sure-fire sub-.250 average, you’ve got yourself a steal.

43. Vernon Wells – Toronto Blue Jays

Vernon was plagued by injuries, again.  He wont run, because he’s always hurt.  He wont hit long bombs, because he’s already gettin’ paid.  One of the most overpaid, overvalued, plays in the game finally sings a redemption song. Maybe he gets back to topping 30HR and 15SB.

44. Milton Bradley – Chicago Cubs

An OPS machine, that has a temper. Where you value him depends largely upon how many games you think he’ll play.  I cannot make that decision for you, but I’m banking on 130 G.

45. Shin-Soo Choo – Cleveland Indians

The BABIP is ridiculous, which leads to all his other stats being stupid silly.  The hype-machine is hungry,  so  I shall feed it.

46. Jose Guillen – Kansas City Royals

I’ve got a soft-spot in my heart for this former top-prospect.  Mainly because he can do absolutely everything you’d want from an outfielder. Guillen never walks, and he swings for the fences.  If Guillen can keep his BA around the .290 range — he’s good to go.  Personally, I’m willing to admit that I have Guillen rated too high, but he does hit 25 HR and drive in almost 100 every year.

47. Elijah Dukes – Washington Nationals

My most favouritest sleeper out there.  Dukes can ball, but he’s got a whole lot of Guillen in him.  If he can stay on the field, and out of stank-ass cooters, he’ll have a break-out year.

48. Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins

Here we go again with another low-average gentleman.  Gomez is quick-fast and will steal you 40 bases in 2009.  He’s just gotta keep that average above .25o become a very useful cog.

49. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks

He’s a year away, but he could put up solid numbers through the 2009 season.  As mentioned earlier, the Diamondbacks situation is confusing and I’m not sure how many .250 hitters they plan on rostering.  There’s really no harm in taking a shot on Upton at this point because if he hits, he’s really going to hit.

50. Hideki Matsui – New York Yankees

The Yankees DH. ‘Nuff said.

51. Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins

Stolen from the Tigers, Cameron Maybin’s got a tonne of athletic ability but no hitters eye in sight. If he can retain the starting field gig for the entire year, 40 SB and 20 HR could be a possibility.  Maybe a pipe dream.  Hell, everyone’s gotta take some risks.

52. Andre Ethier – Los Angeles Dodgers

Can hit.  Not quite sure how the Dodgers situation will play out, but it seems as though Ethier always finds a way to work himself into the line-up.  You could do worse.

53. Delmon Young – Minnesota Twins

Delmon lost his power stroke and started hitting copious amounts of ground-balls.  He’s still a Grade-A hunk of beef and he’s got muscles on-top of muscles, but somethings off.  If Delmon realizes he’s awesome, the improvement wont come in baby-steps. It’ll come in giant, 30HR season type leaps.

54. J.D Drew – Boston Red Sox

Great line-up, Can’t stay healthy.

55. Rick Ankiel – St. Louis Cardinals

Ankiel is making a nice transition, but when is this party going to end.  He should be the one benefiting from the loss of Glaus, and I woudln’t be surprised to see Ankiels numbers go up and Ludwicks dip.

56. Travis Snider – Toronto Blue Jays

Far too high, but the potential is crazy nutty.  In case you haven’t noticed, I’m a Jays season ticket holder who <3s the Travis Snider.

57. Willy Taveras – Cincinnati Reds

Run Willy Run.  He’ll score a good amount of runs in the Cincinnati line-up and he’ll steal just as many bases as you’d expect. I expect 55.

58. David Murphy – Texas Rangers

I take this back, I didn’t mean it.

59. Adam Jones – Baltimore Orioles

Jones should improve and Orioles fans can continue mocking Mariners fans.  God  what a terrible trade.

60. Jeremy Hermida – Florida Marlins

When your swing is as sweet as Hermida’s you cant be this awful. Damnit, nutsac stop striking out.

61. Josh Willingham – Washington Nationals

The final piece of the Nationals OF should knock in the other two pieces.  Maybe Willingham can still play Catcher?

62. Coco Crisp – Kansas City Royals

He should steal, and he can still play.  I like the Royals quite a bit this year. They shoudl be fun to watch.

63. Jeff Francoeur – Atlanta Braves

Hrm.  Can Francoeur be this bad?  He coudln’t hit the broad side of a barn last year.  All signs point to yes, he can be this bad.  I have a hunch he’ll break out, but do you have a hunch?

64. Michael Bourn – Houston Astros

He’ll steal bases and improve with the stick. If you’ve sacraficed steals early in order to nail down a solid BA, it’s now time to grab a guy like Bourn.

65. Juan Pierre – Los Angeles Dodgers

This is a tentative agreement between me and Juan Pierre assuming that Manny isn’t signed.  If Pierre plays, he’ll get on base with cheap little singles and then proceed to steal.

66. Kosuke Fukudome – Chicago Cubs

Pitchers adapted to him, and now it’s his turn to adapt to the pitching.  He should be solid, I promise you.  If you’re board take a look at his month by month BABIP, it’s wacko.

67. Jason Kubel – Minnesota Twins

The Kubes. I draft this scrub every year, but not this year.  Which means Kubel goes for 30 HR and a .285 average.

68. Chris Dickerson – Cincinnati Reds

Well, he started to impress me, and then stopped. Keep an eye on the situation over in Cincinnati, it could get interesting.

69. Adam Lind – Toronto Blue Jays

Realistically, Lind and Snider should be switched on this list.  But we don’t deal in realism. Lind should be in for a super-solid season, and he’ll be a steal come draft day.

…and there comes a time where you decide whether or not you want someone with a starting gig for an entire season or crazy-awesome potential.

70. David DeJesus – Kansas City Royals

71. Cody Ross – Florida Marlins

72. Matt Joyce – Tampa Bay Rays

73. Randy Winn – San Francisco Giants

74. Felix Pie – Baltimore Orioles

75. Jerry Owens- Chicago White Sox

76. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies

77. Michael Cuddyer – Minnesota Twins

78. Daniel Murphy – New York Mets

79. Ryan Church – New York Mets

80. Melky Cabrera – New York Yankees

81. Marcus Thames – Detroit Tigers

82. Nelson Cruz – Texas Rangers

83. Fred Lewis – San Francisco Giants

84. Juan Rivera – Anaheim Angels

85. Denard Span – Minnesota Twins

86. Chase Headley – San Diego Padres

87. Ryan Spilborghs – Colorado Rockies

88. Jerry Hairston Jr. – Cincinnati Reds

89. Colby Rasmus – St Louis Cardinals

90. Franklin Gutierrez – Seattle Mariners

91. Ben Francisco – Cleveland Indians

92. Matt LaPorta – Cleveland Indians

93. Steven Pearce – Pittsburgh Pirates

94. Nyjer Morgan – Pittsburgh Pirates

95. Seth Smith – Colorado Rockies

96. Luke Scott – Baltimore Orioles

97. Aaron Rowand – San Francisco Giants

98. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates

99. Brian Giles – San Diego Padres

100. The Entire Oakland A’s outfield, ugh. Seriously: Davis, Patterson, Sweeney, Buck, and Cunningham.

Keep an eye on…

101. Ryan Freel – Baltimore Orioles

102. Josh Anderson – Atlanta Braves

103. Eric Hinske – Pittsburgh Pirates

104. Jason Heyward (wishfull thinking) – Atlanta Braves

105. Skip Schumaker – St. Louis Cardinals

106. Mark Teahan – Kansas City Royals

107. Gary Matthews Jr – Anaheim Angels

108.  Andruw Jones – Parts Unknown