It’s that time of the year again, the annual dumping of contracts, better known as the dog days of August.  In a perfect world, players would sign contracts that compensate them based on their production and performance.

Unfortunately, mediocre teams sign mediocre players for not-so-mediocre sums of money to show their fans that they’re committed to winning.  Eventually these contracts become blockades that prevent them from competing for anything other than the first overall selection in the June Draft.

Thankfully, there’s a solution in most cases.  Uncompetitive teams place gaudy contracts on waivers and hope that another team’s desperate enough to make a claim, and if they’re lucky, a trade. Occasionally it makes sense to eat a large contract if it drastically increases your chances of a playoff birth.

Older proven players along with the youngsters that fill the void offer the best value you’ll get in a fantasy baseball league now that the fantasy baseball trade deadline has also come and gone.

Alex Rios is now a member of the White Sox, which opens the door for the beloved Travis Snider.  Snider’s still going to have his issues with strikeouts, but he absolutely mashed in AAA-Las Vegas (.337 AVG / .431 OBP / .633 SLG).  Snider led off his second ’09 major league stint with an opposite field shot against Josh Beckett, but has also struck-out three times in two games.  If you’re in need of power, Snider should fulfill that need with every day ABs as promised by Jays’ manager, Cito Gaston:

Manager Cito Gaston said the team’s top prospect will play pretty much every day from here on out as they prepare him for 2010, and Snider feels he’s much more ready to handle the ups and downs of life in the majors than before. Canoe

Aubrey Huff is now a Detroit Tiger, although his role is still unclear.  Huff’s versatility should prove useful and he should settle into the DH-spot nicely.  How the Orioles address this situation will prove to be much more interesting.  Immediately, it seems as though Reimold will occupy the DH spot on a full time basis with super-utility man, Ty Wigginton, getting first-base at-bats.  Wigginton currently has first, third and outfield eligibility in all leagues; However in many leagues he’s amassed enough games at second and shortstop to qualify at MI as well.   Wigginton is always useful if he’s given a shot and in deeper leagues, the situation’s well worth monitoring.  The Orioles also recalled former top-prospect, Michael Aubrey. Aubrey doesn’t have the bat, but really reminds me of a Lyle Overbay -type player.  Obviously Lyle just proved that anyone can go on a tear and everyone’s worth monitoring.  Even though Felix Pie has continued to be a huge dissappointment, I’m still keeping my eyes peeled.

The Indians placed Trevor Crowe on the 15-Day DL and V-Mart’s still a Red Sock — Really, Pinch yourself.  It’s not a dream, he is a Beantowner — which opened up a spot in the line-up for Matt LaPorta.  Much like Travis Snider, LaPorta has absolutely destroyed AAA pitching.  Unlike Snider, LaPorta has focused on exactly what needed improvement.  LaPorta’s seen his K-Rate decline while raising his BB%, which is good for a promising 0.75BB/K ratio. With Jamey Carroll as his only competition for the left-field gig, LaPorta should get more than his fair share of playing time.  If you’re looking for a spark, I’d be hedging my bets towards LaPorta rather than Snider.

In Texas, the catcher’s spot just got that much more confusing.  Salty’s on the DL and while Taylor Teagarden’s been told that the job is his, the recent acquisition of Pudge should interest deep-leaguers.  A return to Arlington shouldn’t hurt and Rodriguez has always been one to raise his level of play for a late-season push, but we’re still talking very-deep leagues only.  The player of interest here, is Julio Borbon who has 8 SB and 13 Hits in 9 games.  Borbon definitely has the speed, but his base running skills still need refinement.  This is a situation you’ll definitely want to monitor as Nelson Cruz is slated to come of the DL today or tomorrow.  If Borbon can find a way to stick with the big club or manage a September call-up, he’ll be very useful in short stints.

St. Louis has taken a chance on John Smoltz.  Old Grey Beard Smoltz has sparked more discussion than his NFL Counterpart, Brett Favre (okay, maybe not that much).  In Boston, Smoltz was all over the place with an ERA over eight.  He was however, still striking people out while posting solid peripherals. This has definitely become a must-watch situation, with Smoltz recently suggesting he’d be better suited to start rather than set up Ryan Franklin.   A return to the National League could prove the cure to Smoltz’s ailment and where else could you find a potential late-season ace?  If you’re riding high in your head-to-head league, you’ve probably got 3 weeks before your first playoff game which would allow Smoltz to show his worth or give you time to cut-bait.

Milwaukee has cut ties with Bill Hall, trading him to Seattle to replace the nutty Adrian Beltre.  Hall’s not particularly interesting, McGehee’s still doing what he does, and the Mat Gamel-era isn’t all that far away.  Gamel should be called up as rosters expand and barring utter-insanity, should see plenty of games at 3B to close out the season.  Just how hard is it to get rid of one of these high-paid under-producing veterans?  Milwaukee will eat the entirety of Hall’s 2009 contract, along with 7.5 of the 8.4 Million owed to Hall in 2010!

With Willy Tavares hitting the DL, the Cincinnati Reds recalled outfielder Drew Stubbs who promptly hit a walk-off, game-winning, extra-innings home run.  Unfortunately, Stubbs probably won’t produce as advertised.  Stubbs’ 46 SBs in AAA are tantalizing, until you realize he’ll have issues getting on base.  It shouldn’t surprise you to see Stubbs strike-out more than 1/3rd of the time and how well his walk-rate will translate is still up in the air.  There’s definitely power-potential in Stubbs’ 6’4″ frame, but probably not in 2009.

There are a couple interesting moves that don’t particularly have fantasy implications.  Firstly, Vicente Padilla is now a Dodger with all of their recent pitching injuries.  In extremely deep leagues, there’s a shot that Padilla could contribute in wins and maybe ERA.  The strike-outs are long gone, but I’m sure there’s a league somewhere interested in him.

Gaby Sanchez was called up and VandenHurk optioned, but more importantly it appears as though Anibal Sanchez may be healthy.  With the Marlins back in the playoff race, there’s a shot that Sanchez could be quite useful down the stretch.  If Sanchez is back to throwing 95mph (as advertised), there’s definitely intrigue.

After waivers comes the expansion of rosters in September.  A lot of two or three category youngsters will get the call.  These players will definitely contribute in small stints based on match-ups.

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30′s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30′s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30′s to low-40′s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.

As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago.  I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.

Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:

What’s Missing?

Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year.  If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.

Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy.  Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.

The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel.  Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.

Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam.  Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year.  The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.