I almost never account for WINS in fantasy baseball. I’ll rate the pitchers based on the other three (or four) categories and then casually nudge them in either direction depending on their projected run support and bullpen stability. In deep leagues, there’s a little something I like to do and it’s never really back-fired: I chase wins.

Starters will do what they do, but it’s relievers that I’m after. Find me a competent reliever that doesn’t pitch the ninth, has great ratios, and is generally slotted for 7th or 8th inning duties on a team with either great starting pitching and no offense or a terrific offense with no starting pitching.

I want gentlemen that’ll come in when the score’s tied or they’re behind and just pitch long enough to get the W. They’re normally pretty cheap, unless they’re next in line to get the saves and the absolute worst case scenario is 50-70 IP with good K-Rates and decent ratios. If they fall apart, you can go hunting for someone else. You’re barely paying a buck or a last round draft pick, it’s not like you’re going to be pissed off when Joba Chamberlain falls apart.

Speaking of Joba, he recorded the W yesterday for the Yankees. The only reason that he’s yet to be added to my fantasy rosters is that his velocity looked absolutely terrible. Maybe the pfx system was b0rked yesterday but Joba lacked zip on the head and depth on the breaking stuff.

For ideas, look no further than the various HOLDS lists spread across the interweb: Joba and Bard should be solid, and Soriano aint a bad option either. Aroldis Chapman will probably end up as the closer at some point and the same’s probably true for Johnny Venters. Gregerson is a freak in San Diego. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Hong-Chih Kuo notch six or seven wins in 2011 while providing you with stellar ratios. The entire Athletics rotation is solid enough to ensure that their stellar bullpen should get in on the W action. Bard, Jenks, and Wheeler will all benefit from an improved and healthy Red Sox line-up.

To me, this isn’t rocket science. Predicting reliever wins is volatile and arguably pretty stupid but you’re really just drafting players that’ll bring down your ERA and potentially contribute to W, K, WHIP and ERA over a handful of innings. I’m not going to recommend it for use in shallow leagues, but in deep leagues it’s better than throwing out an innings eater.

Aaron Hill has quickly become one of the most overvalued underrated players in baseball. It’s actually beginning to blow my mind, because it’s proof that advanced metrics are really seeping into the everyday fantasy baseball decision making process.

Aaron Hill had an awful 2010. If he repeats 2010, he’s a late-round pick that should be platooned. Hill’s home-run numbers and position still pretty much guarantee him a spot on somebody’s fantasy roster, especially if that somebody is just punting BA.

According to ESPN, Aaron Hill’s going 113th overall and is the 11th best second-base option. I find that number to be staggering. Here’s ESPN’s projections:

They’re basically saying that 2010 was a complete fluke and Hill’s power is absolutely, positively legit. Hill’s 2009 season is still in the minds of many fantasy owners (36HR/103R/108RBI/6SB/.286AVG) and they’re considering that as his upside. The Toronto Blue Jays of 2011 aren’t the Toronto Blue Jays of 2009 and 2010 though and you should be tempering your *upside estimates* for someone like Hill.

The Hardball Times does a great job dissecting Hill’s 2010 season and it hardly seems like Hill was just unlucky. But, the moderately informed statistician looking at Hill’s 2010 season just sees his atrocious BABIP. ESPN’s player rater has this blurb to only further the problem:

Think you’re unlucky? Even though Hill hit 26 homers in 2010, his batting average plummeted to .205 thanks to a .196 batting average on balls in play. To put that in perspective, that was almost 100 points below his career mark and 30 points below the next-lowest mark in the majors. That’s unlucky. Also consider that Hill’s strikeout rate held steady and that his walk rate improved, and it jibes with the scouting that says Hill hit the ball hard right at a lot of people for much of the year. He hit just .125 against southpaws, a mark that won’t be repeated. A lot of other fantasy players will be down on him, which means there’s definite profit potential here for the savvy owner. Hill could have a bounce-back season that puts him among the top 10 at the second base position again.

Yet, as the Hardball Times piece shows, it’s more than just luck. Hill was a different player with a different approach and it’s a very real possibility that he’ll have problems reverting to the past.

If Hill does reclaim his past skills though, I’d assume that he’d be sacrificing power and I see more of the 2007 Aaron Hill than the 2009 Aaron Hill. Second base is definitely shallow, but with guys like Gordon Beckham and Neil Walker out there, I find it tough to justify Aaron Hill at 113th overall.

BABIP isn’t truly random. It depends on *how* you’re hitting the ball. To assume that Hill will just automatically reclaim his average while maintaining his power stroke is a bit of a stretch for me. Hill’s at the point in the draft where people start thinking “Oh, Shit. I need a second basemen” and he’s not a turrrible choice, but I’d definitely be drafting another second basemen in the next handful of rounds after Hill.

I think 75R/19HR/79RBI/.270/5SB is probably fair value for Hill not ESPN’s predicted 79R/25HR/74RBI/.269/4SB, but I guess there’s always a shot in hell that he does another Dan Uggla impersonation and posts Top-50 numbers.

In shallow leagues, it makes sense to take that risk because you can simply grab someone off the trash-heap or trade for Mr. Sean Rodriguez (ADP 193) and he’ll do what he does. In deeper leagues though, it’ll be hard to find a replacement and you’ll be stuck with a streaky second basemen at a position where you need a contribution.

Raw, unabashed power. That’s Oakland’s Chris Carter in a couple of words. In 2010, the 23-year old Carter absolutely murder-killed AAA pitching to the tune of a .296 ISO, .529 SLG and 31 Homers.

Yet somehow the man with the big stick toppled down Baseball America’s rankings from 28th in 2010 to 91st in 2011. There was a tremendous influx of talent in the 2009/2010 MLB June Drafts, but Carter deserves to be much higher than 91st. Carter may strike out about 30% and may only walk in the low teens, but when he makes contact the ball goes far….real far.

In his brief major league career, Carter’s posted some concerning yet predictable statistics for a power-hitter. His SwStr (15%) is too high. His contact rate (67%) is also too low, but most of that’s coming on bad pitches (O-Contact: 59%) and he’s not chasing more than average (O-Swing: 29.3%).

Carter is (along with Michael Taylor) the kind of player that will put up monsterous Spring Training numbers though. I’ll call it now, he’ll destroy the Spring and become one of the hottest sleepers out there.

Unfortunately for Carter, the Oakland Athletics don’t really have anywhere for Carter to play. The Athletics have compiled a wild assortment of depth at almost every position. In many cases, the bench players are just as solid as the starters. This team is built to withstand injuries on offense.

Carter’s natural position is probably DH, but the Athletics have brought in Hideki Matsui. He’s also a decent first basemen, but the Athletics currently have Daric Barton and Conor Jackson manning that spot. Carter’s pretty terrible but not insanely awful in left-field, but the Athletics now have Josh Willingham and fellow prospect, Michael Taylor out there. Ryan Sweeney’s also waiting in the wings for any one of the Athletics outfielders to end up on the DL.

Coco Crisp and David DeJesus both played under 100 games last year, and Willingham barely managed 114. Matsui is now 36 and Daric Barton and Conor Jackson are arguably the two most boring first basemen in the history of the game (although I’ve always sorta liked Jackson).

So, will Chris Carter find a spot to play? I think so. Something’s gotta give in Oakland eventually. I think the Athletics might be wise to keep Carter in AAA to get ABs rather than sit him on the bench, but he has proven everything he needs to prove down there.

Now, even if Carter does find himself the ABs, he plays in Oakland. Oakland is bad news for a power-hitting, flyball machine (54% last year). Carter isn’t likely to hit better than about 0.250, but the power’s definitely legit.  Oakland’s offense will also score a few more runs this year and while it’s not potent, it should be fun to watch that depth-chart shape up.

18 Games, 54 ABs and 59 Plate Appearances. I’m not sure if that buys you second base eligibility, but if it does you should probably draft Ryan Raburn and his fire-breathing fists because Ryan Raburn is a WARLOCK (Thanks Charlie, it was nice to see you wearing your old Indians Rick Vaughn get up today)

Some more Charlie Sheen Quotes that aptly describe Ryan Rayburn:

“I’m Bi-Winning. I win here, I win there. Now what?”

“I have one speed, I have one gear. GO!”

“I’ve got Tiger Blood, MAN!”

In response to “…but YOU LOVE TO PARTY?!?!” Charlie Sheen says, “What’s not to love? Especially when you see how I party! It was epic. The run I was on made Sinatra, Flynn, Jager, Richards, all of ‘em, look like droopy eyed armless children”

Good Morning America: “One of the women said that she was affraid she’d OD!”

Charlie Sheen: “What’s that got to do with me?!”

Good Morning America: ”You’re showing them the party!”

Anyways, back to Ryan Raburn. Raburn closed out the season hitting .308/.357/.606 in August and .358/.405/.566 in September/October. Raburn seemingly took off when he started getting regular at-bats around late-July.

Even if Raburn doesn’t qualify at second-base in your league, there’s a shot that Carlos Guillen’s current (and future) injuries may allow for him to gain eligibility at some point. As a corner infielder, he should still fall somewhere in the top-25, top-30 which still aint all that shabby.

Is Ryan Raburn For Real, Though?

Well, everything seems to point towards yes. He doesn’t appear to be getting terribly lucky in any regard. Raburn’s BABIP was high at .333, but that’s right around his career average. His flyballs were leaving the yard at an average rate (12.2%) and you can probably expect that rate to continue.

Pitchers will start to pay attention to Raburn’s troubles with the slider, but his success against the other pitches leaves him in a good spot. Raburn’s contact rates are almost across-the-board average which is nice to see from someone that flashed his kind of power.

There’s almost no reason to believe that Raburn’s success won’t continue. Even with a small decline, Raburn will be useful in the fantasy world at second base or in the outfield.

At this point, Rayburn may be more of a sleeper in the outfield than he is at second base. The only thing standing in Rayburn’s way is the plethora of mediocre talent in Detroit. Boesch, Sizemore, Guillen,

This isn’t exactly post-grad math or a groundbreaking thesis, I just really like Sean Rodriguez. Rodriguez appears to have second-base locked up and I’m banking on him nabbing at least 450-500 AB in 2011. Jason Barlett’s gone and until Tampa brought in Damon and Manny, Rodriguez had probably secured himself everyday ABs. Still, knowing Manny and Damon, there’s going to be a place for Rodriguez in most of the games.

I think it’s fair to say that Manny will play no more than five games in the field and make at least a couple trips to the DL. With that in mind, Matt Joyce will probably get his fair share of ABs bouncing around the OF. When Joyce or Desmond Jennings plays, Ben Zobrist will probably end up playing a fair bit of second base and potentially a lot of first base if Dan Johnson stumbles. The Rays seem pleased enough with Johnson, but Joe Maddon loves flexibility and that translates into fantasy conundrums. Within that mess, there’s the potential that Sean Rodriguez sees enough ABs to justify a roster-spot.

For a second basemen, Sean Rodriguez has quite a bit of pop. Last year’s 0.146 Isolated Power was slightly lower than you’d expect given Rodriguez’s minor-league track record. Rodriguez should sit somewhere in the .160-.170 ISO area with a BB:K of 0.30 rather than last year’s 0.22 mark.

Rodriguez still has room for improvement and his approach at the plate is still pretty raw ( 30% O-Swing, 70% Contact Rate, 12.5% SwStr) but he’s only 25-years old and can absolutely punish the straight-stuff. How Rodriguez deals with the breaking stuff in 2011 will largely determine his overall value.

In deeper leagues, Rodriguez is a must. In shallower leagues, Rodriguez makes one of the best flyers out there. Rodriguez should lock down at least 15 SB, 15HR, a .255-.260ish AVG, and decent but not stellar Runs and RBI depending on where he hits. The Rays should score a fairly often in 2011 considering the addition of Damon and Manny along with the standard progression you’d expect from what seems like an eternally young line-up. Believe it or not, B.J. Upton’s still only 26-years old and still has room for improvement.

All sorts of potential here and a 20/20 season definitely isn’t out of the question if Rodriguez gets close to 600ish AB.

Matusz underwent a rough start to 2010, but managed to turn things around after the Orioles brought in Buck Schowalter. The numbers certainly do not lie:

So what’s the deal with Matusz and is there a reason to select him higher than his current 186th overall according to Yahoo?

The Orioles selected Matusz as the fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft and he quickly made his way up Baseball America’s list of top one-hundred prospects. Heading into 2010, Matusz was the fifth best prospect in the nation, a couple of spots ahead of a Mr. Buster Posey. Matusz’s value has always come from his ability to competently throw four solid pitches for strikes and place them wherever the hell he wants. He doesn’t light up the gun and actually looked better operating in the high-80′s than he did early in the season when he was overthrowing.

Despite last year’s results (linear weights,) Matusz’s go-to pitches are still the curveball and change-up. Both have terrific movement and Matusz’s repeatable delivery adds quite a bit of deception. When you’re talking about young lefties, the kid pretty much has it all.  There’s still room to grow, though.  While Matusz’s strike-outs are probably just about right (7-8K/9,) there’s still plenty of room for growth with his walk-rate (3.23BB/9).

A deeper look inside of Matusz’s numbers shows just how dominate the kid is against left-handers: In about 40IP, Matusz posted an 11.87 K/9 while only walking 2.56-per-9. Matusz is still just a pup and if you can quantify nervousness, I’d say it’d look like this.

The only problem is the teams that he’s forced to toss to in his division.  Last year, Matusz handled the Red Sox (2.43 ERA / 1.18 WHIP), dealt with the Yankees (2.92ERA/1.38 ERA), did alright against the Rays (4.24 ERA/1.29 WHIP), but got absolutely destroyed against the Blue Jays (20.25 ERA /3.38 WHIP).

The Red Sox made some huge off-season moves, but Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez are both lefties (so are Ellsbury, Drew and Ortiz). Almost the entire punch of the Red Sox line-up bats lefty. As for the Yankees, Gardner, Granderson, and Cano all hit lefty, but most of the punch comes from the right side. The Rays are still up in the air, but almost everyone hits righty in that group. As for the Blue Jays, Lind and Snider both hit from the left side, but unless Bautista comes backs big, I doubt this team will have anywhere near the amount of punch as they had last year.

In my opinion, Matusz is defintely the kind of player that you can ride for a couple months. You should be able to tell pretty early whether or not the kid has it and the upside is terrific. Especially with a revamped O’s line-up.

Mase, everyone’s favourite Diddy side-kick, set forth an epic career path that I decided to follow. At the top of my game, with bills-o-plenty in my wallet, I stepped aside to become a preacher-man. Now, I’m back with my kick-ass musings on the game, the fantasy baseball game.

Unfortunately, this career path ends with everyone ignoring me because the game’s gone-done changed. You used to be able to throw together some sleeper candidates based solely on a gut feeling, but now the public wants statistical proof. Everything is expected to be justified by BABIP’s and LD rates, even if they’re not pertinent.

So, with my fantasy baseball rankings just about complete, I’ve decided to welcome myself back in style.

Just like Mase…

This has nothing to do with fantasy sports, unless you’ve got a fantasy track and field league that you don’t tell anyone about.  This is just one of those things that floored me.

Is the athlete to the right, male or female? That is the question.

South Africa’s Caster Semenya destroyed the competition in Berlin recently. Maybe you had a chance to catch it if you tuned in to watch Usain Bolt qualify for the 200M while speed-walking.

Semenya won the 800m by about 2.5 seconds, but that’s not the news.

From the AP via the National Post:

Her dominating run came on the same day track and field’s ruling body said she was undergoing a gender test because of concerns she does not meet requirements to compete as a woman.

Holy shit.

South Africa team manager Phiwe Mlangeni-Tsholetsane would not confirm or deny that Semenya was having such a test.

”We entered Caster as a woman and we want to keep it that way,” Mlangeni-Tsholetsane said. ”Our conscience is clear in terms of Caster. We have no reservations at all about that.”

Holy Shit.

I’m not even sure how to approach this.  If Semenya is a woman (xx) then this is equally as screwed up.  I’m sure Semenya will continue to dominate, but she’s basically been told that she’s the fugliest woman ever.

If Semenya has or had a penis, or the requisite genetic structure, then this is just screwed up.  I would be interested to know how the governing body deals with genetic pairings other than XX and XY…

Any information would be appreciated.

I wouldn’t own Jarrod if my life came down to it, I haven’t the fondest clue why he’s on my list of hated players, but he’s there and a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP aren’t going to change my mind.  Anyone that owns Washburn is playing with fire and I’m not talking BIC lighter, I’m talking Molotov Cocktail.

Yet, after 20 starts and 133 Innings Pitched, I feel the need to look into this mysterious resurrection.  Maybe Washburn got healthy, maybe he took some “supplements,” but that would make for a dull article.

What’s Changed?

Washburn’s always been able to get lefties out, save a ridiculous 2006 season, but he’s seen his WHIP deflate to a minuscule 0.72 against lefties while holding them to a 0.168 batting average.

It’s righties that’s Washburn’s had difficulty getting out.  In 2007 and 2008, right-handed batters nearly hit .300 off Washburn, ballooning his WHIP to nearly 1.50.  In 2009, Washburn’s similarly lowered his WHIP (1.20) and BAA (.244) against righties.

So How’d He Do It?

Popular belief leans towards Washburn’s new fangled two-seam sinking fastball.  The pitch itself isn’t spectacular, it’s shockingly average actually, but considering that Washburn can throw every pitch in the book, it’s a useful pitch.

What does stand out is Washburn’s across the board improvement.  He not only added an extra pitch, all of his other pitches just got inexplicably better.  Normally when a pitcher adds velocity, he’ll sacrifice movement and vice-versa.  Washburn however has managed to add velocity across the board, while simultaneously increasing movement.

Washburn’s getting more swings and less contact by cutting and sinking his fastball, which is generally a good combo.  The mixture of these pitches with his average off speed stuff has resulted in a few more missed bats, but he still doesn’t have a true “out pitch.”  In turn, his K% has remained stagnant at around five and a half batters per nine.

The Other Stuff…

Washburn benefits from Seattle’s spacious confines as Safeco almost always falls in the bottom third of parks for home-runs.

In addition to the park, Seattle’s defense has been uncontrollably awesome.  Between Gutierrez, Ichiro, Chavez and Langerhans, the Seattle Mariners have one of the best outfields in the business.  All of their regulars have a positive UZR/150 and their team defense is second only behind the San Francisco Giants.

…The Other Stuff Part II — The Bad Stuff.

The move to Detroit and Comerica Park shouldn’t hurt Washburn too badly.  Comerica plays similarly to Safeco on deep flies, and the Tigers defense sans Magglio is also fairly solid.

Washburn’s posting a career best BABIP of .249, almost 50pts below his career average.  Furthermore, Washburn’s leaving almost 80% of runners on base, which comes close to matching his career best of 82% LOB from 2005.

Washburn’s posting yet another career high when it comes to keeping long-flies in the park, posting a 6.4% HR/FB percentage. What makes this even more concerning is that the majority of Washburn’s fly balls are leaving the infield (8.1% IFFP.)

Finally, the quality of batters that Washburn’s faced haven’t exactly been stellar:

Against the teams below .500 (Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Toronto, Arizona and San Diego,) Washburn has pitched incredibly well with a 1.17 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over the course of 76 IP.

Against teams above .500 (Detroit, Anaheim, New York, Tampa, Texas, Colorado,) Washburn hasn’t faired nearly as well posting a 4.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with a couple epic blow-ups against the Angels and Yankees.

It makes sense that his numbers would be worse facing the tougher squads, but considering that Washburn’s faced fairly poor teams 60% of the time, is at least moderately interesting.

Luckily for Washburn, he was traded to the AL Central and the Tigers have Baltimore, Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle mixed in with their series against Boston, Tampa, and Los Angeles.

Things get even better in September with series against Cleveland x 2, Kansas City x 2, Toronto, Minnesota x 2, before the Tigers face Tampa and the White Sox x 2.

From the looks of it, the Tigers have 12 series against mediocre squads and only 6 against .500 or better teams.

Finally, the end…

Washburn has improved, there’s no doubting that.  He’s also gotten fairly lucky as noted by the large difference between his ERA and FIP.  You should expect him to come back down to earth, but he also has a lot of easy games coming up.  He’s faced the majority of these teams before, and dominated them, but I’d be worried the second and third time that Washburn faces the same teams.

Finally, this Roy Halladay bull-shit is done and over with.  Unfortunately, I still think J.P. Ricciardi is a complete and total bone-head.  Toronto fans would have hated him, and it probably would have cost him his job, but he should have dealt Roy Halladay.  Instead, Ricciardi set infinite deadlines, each deadline more pointless than the previous.  Obviously, it’s going to come down to what teams are willing to pay next year at this time to really decide whether or not holding Halladay was the right move.

Ricciardi did redeem himself by trading arguably the Jay’s best player in 2009, Scottie “Too Hottie” Rolen.  I often wonder what kind of numbers Rolen would have at this point if Cito hadn’t stuck with his guns and hit Rios and Wells so early in the line-up for damn near half the season.

Either way, Rolen’s surprised me more than any other Blue Jay this year.  Aaron Hill? Naw.  Adam Lind? Naw… Ricky Romero?  Okay, Romero’s got ‘em but the point’s still the same:  Everyone wrote off Scott Rolen.  Watching Rolen run the bases is painful, yet somehow he manages to make diving stabs and terrific throws from the hole.  How?  I have no fucking clue.

So What Did the Blue Jays Get in Return For Rolen?

1.  First off, Rolen’s making a good chunk of change — So Bam!  That comes off the books.  Well, kinda sorta, the Blue Jays are paying a chunk of Rolen’s salary this year but are free and clear of the 11 Million that he’s owed next year.

2.  The 26-year old Edwin Encarnacion isn’t that far off, at least offensively.  Encarnacion’s defense is pretty terrible, but offensively he can rake.  Encarnacion’s still a hitter trying to find his way and his mojo as a hitter.  His contact and swing rates are average across the board, and he’s the proud owner of a 20% K-Rate to go along with a BB-Rate on the friendly side of 10 percent.  Essentially, Encarnacion’s a hitter that’s either a power hitter that’ll hit .250 with a 0.85 to 0.90 Ground Ball-to-Fly Ball rate and a solid amount of DINGERS! or a hard-hitting line drive hitter that’ll only hit 20 homers with a solid .270 average and a .360 OBP.  Unfortunately, injuries have erased any hope for a solid 2009 season — He’s barely hitting .210 in the 140 AB that he’s managed thus far.

However, In the 45 AB since the All-Star Game, Edwin’s been hitting .297 (AVG)/.407 (OBP)/.941 (OPS).  The Jays’ still have Encarnacion under contract for another year at around 4 Million before arbitration really kicks in.  If Edwin Encarnacion stays healthy, this is already a steal for the Blue Jays even if they have to fork over a large portion of Rolen’s 2009 salary.

3.  Josh Roenicke seems to be a fairly average arm coming out of the pen, and while he was Cinci’s number 9 prospect going into the 2008 season, he’s well past the prospect stage.  As a 26-year old, Roenicke’s always posted very solid strike-out numbers even with mediocre control.  Roenicke could provide a very solid arm coming out of the pen, but he’s a small piece of the puzzle, especially in a crowded Blue Jays Bullpen.

4. Zachary Stewart is indeed the piece that completes the deal. The piece that makes Ricciardi look somewhat competent. The Reds drafted Stewart out of Texas Tech in the third round of the 2008 draft, and he’s torn through the minors.  Stewart spent time in both A and High-A in his draft year of 2008, and has since risen quickly through the remainder of the system to his current Triple-A roster position. Stewart’s got a mid-to-upper 90′s fastball to go along with a fairly decent slide-piece in the midish-80′s.  His ability to harness his velocity and spot his pitches will obviously determine just how far he goes, but at this point he’s fairing as well as anyone could’ve expected. Stewart has the potential to be a damn good reliever with a couple terrific out-pitches.  The true test of a reliever is whether or not he can keep his off-speed stuff “tight” and “late-breaking” to complement the heat.  At this point, Stewart doesn’t look to be that far off and other than consistency, he’s lookin’ damn good.

This trade looks to benefit the Jays in every imaginable way, but unfortunately it’s more of a complementary trade.  If the Jays would’ve moved Holliday, this trade would’ve made perfect sense:  Get as many 2010 contracts off the books as possible.  Unfortunately, at this point it looks to be nothing more than Rolen requesting a trade, and J.P. making the deal.  Originally I thought that JP was a genius, but this seems to be more of a case of an idiot getting lucky after Rolen requested a trade for personal reasons.

Unfortunately, things are going to get a lot worse with the departure of Rolen.  Ricciardi has made a habit of keeping around just enough quality talent to guarentee a mediocre draft-slot (that he’ll eventually waste on a prospect that’s “close”.)  The Toronto Blue Jays will never be the worst team in the MLB, but they’ll probably never finish third in the AL East ever again.