FTW

Welcome Back!

Mase, everyone’s favourite Diddy side-kick, set forth an epic career path that I decided to follow. At the top of my game, with bills-o-plenty in my wallet, I stepped aside to become a preacher-man. Now, I’m back with my kick-ass musings on the game, the fantasy baseball game.

Unfortunately, this career path ends with everyone ignoring me because the game’s gone-done changed. You used to be able to throw together some sleeper candidates based solely on a gut feeling, but now the public wants statistical proof. Everything is expected to be justified by BABIP’s and LD rates, even if they’re not pertinent.

So, with my fantasy baseball rankings just about complete, I’ve decided to welcome myself back in style.

Just like Mase…

FTW

No, Not For The Win: Literally, Fuck The What?!?

This has nothing to do with fantasy sports, unless you’ve got a fantasy track and field league that you don’t tell anyone about.  This is just one of those things that floored me.

Is the athlete to the right, male or female? That is the question.

South Africa’s Caster Semenya destroyed the competition in Berlin recently. Maybe you had a chance to catch it if you tuned in to watch Usain Bolt qualify for the 200M while speed-walking.

Semenya won the 800m by about 2.5 seconds, but that’s not the news.

From the AP via the National Post:

Her dominating run came on the same day track and field’s ruling body said she was undergoing a gender test because of concerns she does not meet requirements to compete as a woman.

Holy shit.

South Africa team manager Phiwe Mlangeni-Tsholetsane would not confirm or deny that Semenya was having such a test.

”We entered Caster as a woman and we want to keep it that way,” Mlangeni-Tsholetsane said. ”Our conscience is clear in terms of Caster. We have no reservations at all about that.”

Holy Shit.

I’m not even sure how to approach this.  If Semenya is a woman (xx) then this is equally as screwed up.  I’m sure Semenya will continue to dominate, but she’s basically been told that she’s the fugliest woman ever.

If Semenya has or had a penis, or the requisite genetic structure, then this is just screwed up.  I would be interested to know how the governing body deals with genetic pairings other than XX and XY…

Any information would be appreciated.

FTW

I Hate Jarrod Washburn…

I wouldn’t own Jarrod if my life came down to it, I haven’t the fondest clue why he’s on my list of hated players, but he’s there and a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP aren’t going to change my mind.  Anyone that owns Washburn is playing with fire and I’m not talking BIC lighter, I’m talking Molotov Cocktail.

Yet, after 20 starts and 133 Innings Pitched, I feel the need to look into this mysterious resurrection.  Maybe Washburn got healthy, maybe he took some “supplements,” but that would make for a dull article.

What’s Changed?

Washburn’s always been able to get lefties out, save a ridiculous 2006 season, but he’s seen his WHIP deflate to a minuscule 0.72 against lefties while holding them to a 0.168 batting average.

It’s righties that’s Washburn’s had difficulty getting out.  In 2007 and 2008, right-handed batters nearly hit .300 off Washburn, ballooning his WHIP to nearly 1.50.  In 2009, Washburn’s similarly lowered his WHIP (1.20) and BAA (.244) against righties.

So How’d He Do It?

Popular belief leans towards Washburn’s new fangled two-seam sinking fastball.  The pitch itself isn’t spectacular, it’s shockingly average actually, but considering that Washburn can throw every pitch in the book, it’s a useful pitch.

What does stand out is Washburn’s across the board improvement.  He not only added an extra pitch, all of his other pitches just got inexplicably better.  Normally when a pitcher adds velocity, he’ll sacrifice movement and vice-versa.  Washburn however has managed to add velocity across the board, while simultaneously increasing movement.

Washburn’s getting more swings and less contact by cutting and sinking his fastball, which is generally a good combo.  The mixture of these pitches with his average off speed stuff has resulted in a few more missed bats, but he still doesn’t have a true “out pitch.”  In turn, his K% has remained stagnant at around five and a half batters per nine.

The Other Stuff…

Washburn benefits from Seattle’s spacious confines as Safeco almost always falls in the bottom third of parks for home-runs.

In addition to the park, Seattle’s defense has been uncontrollably awesome.  Between Gutierrez, Ichiro, Chavez and Langerhans, the Seattle Mariners have one of the best outfields in the business.  All of their regulars have a positive UZR/150 and their team defense is second only behind the San Francisco Giants.

…The Other Stuff Part II — The Bad Stuff.

The move to Detroit and Comerica Park shouldn’t hurt Washburn too badly.  Comerica plays similarly to Safeco on deep flies, and the Tigers defense sans Magglio is also fairly solid.

Washburn’s posting a career best BABIP of .249, almost 50pts below his career average.  Furthermore, Washburn’s leaving almost 80% of runners on base, which comes close to matching his career best of 82% LOB from 2005.

Washburn’s posting yet another career high when it comes to keeping long-flies in the park, posting a 6.4% HR/FB percentage. What makes this even more concerning is that the majority of Washburn’s fly balls are leaving the infield (8.1% IFFP.)

Finally, the quality of batters that Washburn’s faced haven’t exactly been stellar:

Against the teams below .500 (Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Toronto, Arizona and San Diego,) Washburn has pitched incredibly well with a 1.17 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over the course of 76 IP.

Against teams above .500 (Detroit, Anaheim, New York, Tampa, Texas, Colorado,) Washburn hasn’t faired nearly as well posting a 4.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with a couple epic blow-ups against the Angels and Yankees.

It makes sense that his numbers would be worse facing the tougher squads, but considering that Washburn’s faced fairly poor teams 60% of the time, is at least moderately interesting.

Luckily for Washburn, he was traded to the AL Central and the Tigers have Baltimore, Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle mixed in with their series against Boston, Tampa, and Los Angeles.

Things get even better in September with series against Cleveland x 2, Kansas City x 2, Toronto, Minnesota x 2, before the Tigers face Tampa and the White Sox x 2.

From the looks of it, the Tigers have 12 series against mediocre squads and only 6 against .500 or better teams.

Finally, the end…

Washburn has improved, there’s no doubting that.  He’s also gotten fairly lucky as noted by the large difference between his ERA and FIP.  You should expect him to come back down to earth, but he also has a lot of easy games coming up.  He’s faced the majority of these teams before, and dominated them, but I’d be worried the second and third time that Washburn faces the same teams.

FTW

The Scott Rolen Trade

Finally, this Roy Halladay bull-shit is done and over with.  Unfortunately, I still think J.P. Ricciardi is a complete and total bone-head.  Toronto fans would have hated him, and it probably would have cost him his job, but he should have dealt Roy Halladay.  Instead, Ricciardi set infinite deadlines, each deadline more pointless than the previous.  Obviously, it’s going to come down to what teams are willing to pay next year at this time to really decide whether or not holding Halladay was the right move.

Ricciardi did redeem himself by trading arguably the Jay’s best player in 2009, Scottie “Too Hottie” Rolen.  I often wonder what kind of numbers Rolen would have at this point if Cito hadn’t stuck with his guns and hit Rios and Wells so early in the line-up for damn near half the season.

Either way, Rolen’s surprised me more than any other Blue Jay this year.  Aaron Hill? Naw.  Adam Lind? Naw… Ricky Romero?  Okay, Romero’s got ‘em but the point’s still the same:  Everyone wrote off Scott Rolen.  Watching Rolen run the bases is painful, yet somehow he manages to make diving stabs and terrific throws from the hole.  How?  I have no fucking clue.

So What Did the Blue Jays Get in Return For Rolen?

1.  First off, Rolen’s making a good chunk of change — So Bam!  That comes off the books.  Well, kinda sorta, the Blue Jays are paying a chunk of Rolen’s salary this year but are free and clear of the 11 Million that he’s owed next year.

2.  The 26-year old Edwin Encarnacion isn’t that far off, at least offensively.  Encarnacion’s defense is pretty terrible, but offensively he can rake.  Encarnacion’s still a hitter trying to find his way and his mojo as a hitter.  His contact and swing rates are average across the board, and he’s the proud owner of a 20% K-Rate to go along with a BB-Rate on the friendly side of 10 percent.  Essentially, Encarnacion’s a hitter that’s either a power hitter that’ll hit .250 with a 0.85 to 0.90 Ground Ball-to-Fly Ball rate and a solid amount of DINGERS! or a hard-hitting line drive hitter that’ll only hit 20 homers with a solid .270 average and a .360 OBP.  Unfortunately, injuries have erased any hope for a solid 2009 season — He’s barely hitting .210 in the 140 AB that he’s managed thus far.

However, In the 45 AB since the All-Star Game, Edwin’s been hitting .297 (AVG)/.407 (OBP)/.941 (OPS).  The Jays’ still have Encarnacion under contract for another year at around 4 Million before arbitration really kicks in.  If Edwin Encarnacion stays healthy, this is already a steal for the Blue Jays even if they have to fork over a large portion of Rolen’s 2009 salary.

3.  Josh Roenicke seems to be a fairly average arm coming out of the pen, and while he was Cinci’s number 9 prospect going into the 2008 season, he’s well past the prospect stage.  As a 26-year old, Roenicke’s always posted very solid strike-out numbers even with mediocre control.  Roenicke could provide a very solid arm coming out of the pen, but he’s a small piece of the puzzle, especially in a crowded Blue Jays Bullpen.

4. Zachary Stewart is indeed the piece that completes the deal. The piece that makes Ricciardi look somewhat competent. The Reds drafted Stewart out of Texas Tech in the third round of the 2008 draft, and he’s torn through the minors.  Stewart spent time in both A and High-A in his draft year of 2008, and has since risen quickly through the remainder of the system to his current Triple-A roster position. Stewart’s got a mid-to-upper 90′s fastball to go along with a fairly decent slide-piece in the midish-80′s.  His ability to harness his velocity and spot his pitches will obviously determine just how far he goes, but at this point he’s fairing as well as anyone could’ve expected. Stewart has the potential to be a damn good reliever with a couple terrific out-pitches.  The true test of a reliever is whether or not he can keep his off-speed stuff “tight” and “late-breaking” to complement the heat.  At this point, Stewart doesn’t look to be that far off and other than consistency, he’s lookin’ damn good.

This trade looks to benefit the Jays in every imaginable way, but unfortunately it’s more of a complementary trade.  If the Jays would’ve moved Holliday, this trade would’ve made perfect sense:  Get as many 2010 contracts off the books as possible.  Unfortunately, at this point it looks to be nothing more than Rolen requesting a trade, and J.P. making the deal.  Originally I thought that JP was a genius, but this seems to be more of a case of an idiot getting lucky after Rolen requested a trade for personal reasons.

Unfortunately, things are going to get a lot worse with the departure of Rolen.  Ricciardi has made a habit of keeping around just enough quality talent to guarentee a mediocre draft-slot (that he’ll eventually waste on a prospect that’s “close”.)  The Toronto Blue Jays will never be the worst team in the MLB, but they’ll probably never finish third in the AL East ever again.

FTW

Highlight Of The Night…

Seriously, how do you not love this kid…He’s Kennyi Kwaku Aouad and it’s about 9:30 EST, and I hope to hell he beats all them biiiatches.   The prop bets on the Scripps Spelling Bee are ridiculously awesome… Will there be vomiting? What about fainting?  Will the winner wear glasses?  Will it be a boy or girl who takes home the championship?

With only five or six games on the baseball schedule, and the Jays in the midst of an AWFUL stretch… why not watch competitive spelling?  On that note, Ricky Nolasco, who’s a mainstay on all of my fantasy squads, had a half decent outting in Triple-A New Orleans. Nolasco went 8 strong, giving up 3 runs, 6 hits and 2 walks with 7 strike-outs.

FTW

Washington: News-Worthy Notes, Note-Worthy News?

The Washington Nationals Won!

vs.

President Obama Declares Amnesty for CIA Torture Mongers

I’ll start with the Nationals winning their first game as I watch the season premiere of The Deadliest Catch Season 5 and doze off, hopefully before 2:00 AM. Read more

FTW

MLB Game Day, New Features, Low-Price, Dustin Pedroia

MLB’s Pitch F/X system has pretty much reinvented the idea behind scouting pitching.  While the pitch classification system is still a bit off, it does provide ridiculously detailed data on every pitch thrown.

Pitch Analysis has taken on a life of it’s own with guys like Mike Fast, and Josh Kalk leading the way with terribly interesting analysis of spin, movement, trajectory, speed — whatever!

This isn’t about that though, this is about MLB.com’s new advanced Game Day.  19.99 per year, Game Day Premium.

You get a cute little video-game style hot and cold zone, along with whether or not a pitcher is maintaining solid velocity, varying his pitches, getting similiar movement, or moving his release point.  It’s interesting stuff, but it still has plenty of kinks.

I was following Brett Anderson pitch when I came across this GEM.  Many of you may not find this quite as funny as me, but seeing Dustin Pedroia — that TINY LITTLE MIDGET — standing in front of that gigantic strike-zone made me laugh.

Unfortunately it was ruined by the MLB disclaimer Batters Perspective Not To Scale

The sad part for Pedroia owners, or Red Sox fans, is that this disclaimer may not be needed.

The idea’s a great one, and I’m glad that they’re giving everyone a free couple weeks worth of Game Day Premium.  It’s finally beginning to spit-out somewhat reasonable stats after a week of spitting out:

Bobby Abreu:

Loves to Face: 4-Seam Fastball

Hates to Face: 4-Seam Fastball

If only Josh Beckett would have read the scouting report, he would have realized Abreu’s schizo tendencies.

FTW

Double J, Not Just Jeff Jarrett — Josh Johnson Too!

Jeff Jarrett, an up-and-coming country music star, needed to add some buzz to his music career so he took up wrasslin‘ in the Dubya-Dubya-Eff in 1993.

Jarrett, an incredible wrestler, decided on the catch-phrase “AIN’T I GREAT?”

Josh Johnson, Marlin’s starting pitcher, apparently has laid claim to not just the moniker Double-J, but also the “AINT I GREAT” catch-phrase.

So great that the boys over at ESPN  have decided he’s worthy of a major spot on the ESPN fantasy page.

Johnson, a 25-year old righty, has been floating around the Marlins rotation since 2005, but has run into his fair share of injuries. Luckily, unlike other Marlin’s youngsters, he’s refrained from getting tasered by police.

Jul 10, 2008: Missed 91 games (elbow surgery).
Oct 1, 2007: Missed the last 77 games of the regular season (forearm injury).
Jun 18, 2007: Missed 70 games (bicep injury). (courtesy of sportsnet)

Johnson’s yet to pitch a full-season in the majors, but has succeeded in each of his brief sprints.  2006 was Johnson’s most successful season, as he managed to rack up 133 strike-outs in 157 IP, while posting a 3.10 ERA, and a 3.99 FIP.

In 2008, Johnson managed 87 IP, a 7-1 record, 77 K and a 3.61 ERA.

So Is Josh Johnson The Fantasy Jesus?

2 Wins, 0.56 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 15 K in 15.2 IP – That’s Johnson so far in 2009, and it’s true, he may indeed be the Jesus.

Johnson’s posted these numbers against two fairly solid offenses in the Mets and Nats — unfortunately, neither of these two clubs has looked quite right against anyone yet.

Johnson’s Stuff

Rotoworld.com reports that Johnson’s trimmed a few mph off his slider during Spring Training which has probably contributed to his improved effectiveness.  I’ll do a pfx analysis of Johnson’s slider over the next couple days, but it’s almost a given that it’s been biting more.

Aside from his above average slider, Johnson throws hard — real hard.  His average fastball velocity is up a couple miles per hour over his previous seasons.  This is further evidence that he’s put the Tommy John surgery behind him, and is no longer being nagged by his bicep/forearm.

Johnson’s fastball is coming in at 94.7mph, on average.  Everyone knows Johnson can hit 95-96mph on the radar gun, but to average 95 is almost ridiculous.  This puts Johnson very close to Ubaldo Jiminez’s league-leading 2008 number of 94.9.

Velocity isn’t everything though, as you can see by Johnson’s peers at the top of the velocity board:  Ubaldo Jiminez, Justin Verlander, Josh Beckett, and Edwin Jackson. Verlander has all sorts of potential, but it just seems to go to waste.  Edwin Jackson’s also very interesting, and will be looked at in a later article.

Johnson’s also added 1mph onto his change-up, increasing it’s value to 88.5mph too.

Josh Johnson isn’t quite this good…

Johnson’s increased velocity has resulted in 8.62 K per 9, which while it’s a small sample size, is still telling us something.  It would be wise to up your projections for his K to 9 from previous years, but at this point — Johnson’s probably more of a 8 K per 9 guy, rather than a 9 K per 9 guy.

Johnson’s leaving everyone on base (90% LOB), and the hits aren’t falling (.291 BABIP).  So we should obviously expect regression from his sub-1.00 ERA.  Currently his Fielding Independent Pitching, is sitting at a crisp 1.52.

The nice thing about Josh Johnson, is that he’s only walked 1 batter, producing a BB:9 of 0.50.  Josh Johnson may improve on the 3.50 BB/9 predicted by the robots — but he’s not a 0.50 BB per 9 type guy.  I’d put Johnson at about 2.50 BB per 9, which still makes him a reliable fantasy option.  This should put him at about 3 strike-outs per walk, which is floating in ACE territory.

Where do we go from here…

Johnson’s always been average with his pitch control: producing a league-average amount of swinging strikes both inside and outside of the zone.  Johnson’s average across the board, and throws about an average amount of first pitch strikes.

In 2009 however, Johnson’s getting a lot more swinging strikes outside of the zone (28%), and a lot less contact on those (44%) pitches. Combine this with Johnson throwing about 10 percent more first-pitch strikes, and we’ve got a dominant pitcher.

Conclusion

Johnson’s got dirty stuff, and taking a bit off his slider really appears to have helped him.  Johnson’s bringing it at 95mph, and batters are going to be baffled, so long as he maintains his velocity.  Contrary to the basic principles of physics, the ball tends to go further as it gets warmer which is mainly do to hitters being able to stay loose.

While you’d expect a bit of regression on Johnson’s part, he’s shown that he has a great arsenal and potential Cy Young stuff.

Unfortunately, Johnson’s still a massive injury risk.  While Johnson’s out there, I’d expect a sub-3.50 ERA, with the potential for a sub-3.00.  If Johnson’s improved control is for real, the days of him posting 1.30-WHIPs are long gone.  He’s definitely more of a 1.20-WHIP guy, at this point.

Johnson’s blazing fastball will catch your eye, but what you should focus on is his new-found control.  If he returns to the pitcher that walks 3 per 9, then you’ll want to sell high.  If he can keep it under 2.50 — expect Ace-Like numbers.

Whether or not Johnson can get 200 IP is up in the air.  I’d probably set the over/under at about 160 IP, with Johnson’s history.

If I was a Johnson owner, I’d wait about a month or two before I shopped him.  There is definitely still value in acquiring Johnson at this point, but in the long-term you’ll want to trade him when the Dog-Days of August roll around.

Great Stuff, Great Park, Solid Offense is what a Fantasy Ace needs.

Photo Courtesy of WallyG Flickr

FTW

Opening Day: Limit Your Stupidity, Capitalize on Others’

Opening Day is finally here, after a stellar Opening Night offering from Philly and Hot-Lanta.  Hopefully you’ve set the DVR to record House M.D. (Kutner Dies, hopefully I ruined that for you) and 24 (John Voight just majorly pwned a n00b.)

Maybe you got your fix last night and watched Myers shit the bed and Schafer look like an All-Star but please:

Do Not Do Anything Stupid!

Unless you autodrafted, you’re not allowed to make roster moves based on performance.  You obviously can switch ‘em up if someone gets hurt, or Motte’s the situation for 4 games in a row, but for the most part — No Roster Moves.

There are 162 Games in a season, and one game shouldn’t change your mind.   Ricky Nolasco looked great until shit hit the fan and he gave up 5 Runs (4 ER). The Blue Jays aren’t an offensive power house, and the Orioles aren’t going to finish ahead of those damn Yankees.

There are some notable exceptions though:

Maybe you wanted Schafer but didn’t feel he had value at the 8th spot, batting ahead of the pitcher.  If he starts batting lead-off, go ahead and pick ‘em up.

The Back-End, Last 5 Picks:

You are however allowed to play with the last five picks, if you get some crazy feeling.  The last five picks in your draft, or your bench spots are generally pretty much waiver-wire quality — so you can always get them back.

While I’d advise you to keep them, if you really wanted Felipe Lopez but couldn’t bring yourself to pull the trigger, then give ‘er tits.  If you just needed to see something, anything, just evidence that he existed in space AND time — then go ahead and pick up Lopez.

I’d recommend keeping your Waiver Wire claims to a minimum for the first week until you get a feel for your team. Almost all other sources will tell you to sit on your team for a month, but screw that cheese — if you’re not going to take a risk with the ass-end of your line-up and pick up a Michael Bourn-type, then you won’t win big.

Some people sit on their waiver-wire priority until the big-stud comes up, but I say screw it.

The first month of the season, and the first week after the All-Star break is when you win a fantasy league.  You shouldn’t deviate too much from your original rankings, and definitely don’t go dropping anyone outside of your bench guys.

If you start pouncing on these waiver-wire claims, don’t even bother starting them.  Just take the wait-and-see approach for a week or so before they even come close to your line-up.

Bigga Bigga Bigga Money

If someone does overreact and drop a player that sits higher than your bottom five, pick him up pronto.

If someone drops David Murphy because Nelson Cruz got the start, I’d have no problem picking him up if I liked him more than my 5th outfielder, Josh Anderson.

This may seem like common-sense, but you need some stick-to-it-ness if you’re looking at the standings and you’re in last place at 0-19-1 after two weeks, and you only managed a tie against the guy who was punting saves.

FTW

The Price is Right, Tampa Bay Edition.

The Rays optioned David Price late last month, and the fantasy crowd lost their head.  Today, the Rays have shown that they’re actually brilliant wizards with mythical, magical, MYSTICAL! powers:

Tampa Bay Rays
Acquired Minor League RHP Aneury Rodriguez from the Colorado Rockies in exchange for RHP Jason Hammel.

One down, one to go!

Jeff Neimann, who seemed like he was heading for the bullpen now fills the 5th starter role.

I find it next to impossible to believe that the Rays will keep Price in the minors until the end of June, which they’d probably have to do if they wanted to delay his Free Agent year.  This isn’t exactly about money: Generally prospects are sent down to delay their arbitration year, but Price is already purchased for 6 years.  This is about the possibility of delaying Price from entering free agency a year early. That’s the 2012/2013 season, I believe.

Maybe the old Rays would keep Price down, but the new Rays just got to the World Series.  If things take a turn for the worst, I’d expect Price up pronto.  There will come a point where someone gets hurt, or Niemann sucks it up.  At that point, Price will get the call.

I’d say the odds of Price getting the call before the end of June, just doubled or tripled with the trade of Hammel.

By the way, RHP Aneury Rodriguez, is a solid power-pitching prospect who showed all around improvement last year with Modesto in A+.  He’s still only 21 years old, and while he shouldn’t be on your fantasy radar for another 2 or 3 years, it shows that the Rays didn’t just give Hammel away; which would have been the case if they’d optioned him or Neimann instead of Price.

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