Felipe Lopez

Sacks Juiced: May 18th

Homer Bailey went seven strong innings against the Brewers, giving up 4H, 2BB and a couple ER.  Bailey settled down well after giving up both earned runs in the first.  He relied heavily on his fastball (71%) but his change-up looked better than it had in a couple starts.

Jay Bruce stole a base and collected a couple hits off lefty, Manny Parra.  Bruce has slowly been improving his platoon splits but it’s still quite sensible to sit him against top-tier lefties.  Jay Bruce is now hitting .280 on the year after a .223 ’08 campaign.  Bruce may be striking out more in 2010 but his swing-rate and swinging strikes are both down.  More importantly, Bruce has upped his walk-rate by swinging less outside of the zone.  You get the feeling that a break-out month is on the horizon for Jay Bruce.

Casey McGehee continued to absolutely punish the baseball with 3 hits on Tuesday.  After a 2009 season where McGehee owned the fastball, he’s been doing most of his damage this year on off-speed stuff.  McGehee’s BABIP isn’t spectacularly high — it’s actually the same .330 it was last year – but with only 10% of his hits as line-drives, there’s some concern.

The Toronto Blue Jays continued to light up mistake prone pitches against the Twins and Carl Pavano.  Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion all went yard.  Blue Jays not named Aaron Hill or Adam Lind will eventually regress but I’m not going to be the one to predict it.  With Hill’s homer and Adam Lind’s 2-hit game, their batting averages now sit at .175 and .231, respectively.  Adam Lind will have trouble duplicating his 2009 break-out season without cutting his Ks down to 2009 levels:  currently, he’s at 29% versus 19% in 2009.

Shaun Marcum continues to dominate with control after missing all of 2009 but the ERA is a bit lucky.  Expecting something closer to 2008′s 3.40ERA rather than 2010′s current 2.61 ERA seems to make sense.  Marcum’s ability to move the fastball and place the change-up wherever he damn-well pleases is extraordinary.

Rick Porcello’s sinker just isn’t sinking which is a problem when your value’s tied up in ERA and WHIP. At this point, I’m having major issues seeing Porcello’s upside, especially if he continues to walk almost as many batters as he’s striking out. Rick Porcello walked another 3 batters last night in a very mediocre performance (7IP, 4ER, 8H, 3BB, 2K) against the White Sox.

With 2 Hits and a steal, Brennan Boesch is now hitting .387 on the strength of a .426 BABIP.  The rook’s slugging percentage sits at a darling .680 but this can only last so long with a BB-Rate of 3% and a 51% O-Swing.

Andruw Jones went 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts last night; Can you believe Jones has 7 SB on the year?

Thankfully for White Sox fans, Bobby Jenks pitched a pretty clean 9th inning:  1H, 0BB and 2 Ks.  Sergio Santos walked a couple in one inning’s work to raise his WHIP to 1.08.  Hitters are only hitting .165 against Santos and his very live fastball (AVG Speed: 95.6mph).

Florida spanked Arizona eight to nil on Tuesday.  Justin Upton was the only Diamondback position player to record a hit — which he bundled with another 2 SO, lovely.

Cameron Maybin hit in the 2-hole and recorded a homer, a walk and a strike-out.  The kid’s still hitting just .242 (on a .341 BABIP) and striking out 32.6% of the time.

David Price pitched another solid game for his sixth win of the year.  I’d really like to see Price return to the BB numbers of 2008 (2.57) before I fully endorse him as elite, though.  While Price is getting a bit lucky on balls in play, he’s still pitching incredibly well with a 3.06 FIP and a True ERA (tERA) of 2.91.

Ben Zobrist is still without a homer, but i’d hardly call him a major disappointment after his 7th steal of the year.  His .340 BABIP is almost negated by a 5% increase in line-drives over last year.  The major concerns that I have with Zobrist is his huge jump in O-Swing (’09: 19%, 10: 27%) and decline in BB-Rate (’09: 15%, ’10: 10%).

The Royals and Orioles game was a thriller, just ask the reported 9,715 fans that showed up at Camden to take in the baseball super-event.  Kevin Millwood, a man that I’ll never roster, continued his hot streak going 8 strong innings, striking out seven without a walk.  Millwood’s ERA is now 3.65 on the year and he’s striking out more than 7 batters per 9.

Jose Guillen had two more hits and is now batting .261 with 8HR.  Guillen has quietly gone about matching his 2009 power numbers in about half the games.  He’s already accumulated one more double, one fewer homer, seven fewer runs, and 15 fewer RBI in 41 fewer games.

Zack Greinke got yet another no-decision, despite 7IP, 2ER, 6K and 1BB.  That’s one whole win on the entire year, folks.  If there’s anyway that you can acquire Greinke, I’d do it.  He’ll still end up with at least 10-12 wins on the year.

I’m a bit sensitive about Josh Beckett as the former Texas Highschooler was one of my first ever keeper picks.  In 4.2IP, Beckett gave up another 3ER — That’s good for a season ERA on the wrong side of 7.

C.C. Sabathia allowed a single run in seven solid innings but I’m somewhat concerned about the strike-out and walk totals.  C.C. has a habit of starting out poorly but he’s barely striking out six batters per nine and walking almost 3-per-9.  He should eventually round back into form before that .239 BABIP catches up to him.

Roy Halladay’s complete game, two ER, six K, performance was out-dueled by Zack Duke et. al.  Evan Meek pitched another solid inning in relief, striking out one and walking another.  On the season, Meek has a ERA of 0.69 and has managed to strike-out a batter per inning while only walking 2.42-per-9.  Evan Meek’s added a couple of MPH across the board and his average fastball hitting 95mph is starting to look closer-worthy.  All the plate discipline indicators show that hitters are having trouble with his stuff; it’s just a matter of sustaining the BB-Rate, which he’s lopped in half since 2009.

Ike Davis hit a dinger, his first in a couple weeks.  While the strike-outs are worrisome, he’s walking almost 16% of the time.  There will inconsistency but Davis has looked pretty good thus far:  .275 AVG /.393 OBP/ .466 SLG.

Kris Medlen continued to prove his case with 6.1 innings of 4 Hit ball.  Medlen allowed a couple homers while striking out six and walking a couple.

I have absolutely no fucking clue how Carlos Silva continues to pitch this well.

Five walks in just over five innings got Jhoulys Chacin into trouble.  He still managed to strike-out six batters and his season ERA is now at 3.12.  If Chacin can keep his K:BB on the right side of two, he’ll have success going forward.  Expect the normal bumps and bruises, though.

Carlos Zambrano pitched a perfect ninth: two strike-outs and no walks!  The Cubs want him and his gigantic salary back in the rotation, which at least gives Big-Z owners hope.

Tyler Colvin took advantage of the playing time, knocking in a run and scoring a couple on three hits.  I’m not sure how the Cubbies can make this work but this kid needs to see some consistent at-bats.

Carlos Gonzalez had two hits for the Rockies but there is something dirty about his 2.7% BB-Rate hitting lead-off.

Ian Kinsler hit his first dinger of the year to help Texas beat the Angels.  On the season, Vladdy Guerrero now has eight homers after another one last night.  The question is not if Guerrero will come up with a bum hamstring but when.

Neftali Feliz is rounding back into form, pitching a scoreless ninth with two K’s.

At what point do the Angels just give up on Brandon Wood? Another hitless game for Wood.

Felipe Lopez lead off for the Cardinals last night.  You know the deal with Lopez, he’ll score runs and steal bases but it won’t be pretty.  I’ve got a feeling that Lopez might return to his 20 SB days after stealing just 14 over the course of the previous two years.

Six hits over two games was all it took Ian Desmond to raise his batting average from .246 to .279 — Wonky, eh?    This is a guy that flashed 30SB potential throughout the minors but it’s yet to translate.  In 2009, across two levels and a cup of coffee (AA-AAA-MLB,) Desmond stole 22 Bases.

Felix Hernandez got hit pretty hard (11H, 2BB) without it translating into ER (3).  Ben Sheets came back down to earth as he walked 4 more batters en route to 4ER.

Kurt Suzuki had 3 hits to raise his batting average from .239 to .264.  He’s still a viable option at catcher.

The story of the extra-innings game between the Padres and the Giants was Mat Latos.  Neither Latos nor the Padres got the win thanks in part to Mike Adams’ blown save in the eighth.  Mat Latos’ WHIP now sits just below 1.00 in part because he’s given up just 1 walk in his previous three starts.  Definitely someone worth locking your sights on.

Bud Norris exploded yet again against the Dodgers.  With a couple of hits and a homer, Carlos Lee may finally be starting to heat up.

Felipe Lopez

Attack Of The Ugly Ducklings

I’m not a male chauvinist, I just play one on the internet.  Objectifying women through the use of debatably clever often drawn out metaphors is just something that I enjoy.  Blonde jokes too, it’s a shame they’ve become passe.  Occasionally I’ll wonder what a blond and a screen door actually do have in common, or what that same blond could have in common with a beer bottle.

I mention this because the fantasy baseball world is no better.  In what other game are grown men described as sexy?  In fantasy baseball, the younger, the better, the sexier.  The more a prospect can do at a younger age, the sexier he becomes to the fantasy baseball world.  It’s a strange universe, and we’re all part of it.  With that said, the sexy picks never seem to produce.  The tools are of course there, but they’re still too young to know what they’re doing.

Enter the ugly duckings and the revival of the old, unattractive, powerless, speedless, middle infielder.

Over the last month there’s been a plethora of ugly ducklings forging their way to the top of the rankings, starting with:

1. Mark Ellis – Oakland Athletics – 15% Owned – 33rd in Y!

Ellis has posted a disgusting slash-line for a 32 year old second baseman:  .357 AVG /.371 OBP /.561 SLG.  Oakland’s recent offensive boom has resulted in 17 R /  3 HR /  25 RBI and  2 SB for Ellis.  The walks aren’t there and I’d be surprised if Ellis keeps this up, but expecting 15 of both RBI and Runs the rest of way home is a very conservative estimate.

2. Christian Guzman – Washington Nationals – 34% Owned – 34th in Y!

Speaking of an inability to walk, Guzman can’t stand the free pass.  Guzman’s scored 22 runs while knocking in 18 over the past month.  Much like Ellis, Guzman will steal the occasional base here and there.  A slashline of .357 AVG / .388 OBP / .510 SLG has kept Guzman afloat.  Guzman opened the season hitting everything in sight and he’s definitely capable of prolonged .350+ average streaks.

3. Jhonny Peralta – Cleveland Indians – 63% Owned – 44th in Y!

Peralta used to be one of those young, sexy picks, but got old in a hurry.  His four home-runs in the last month could mean that the kid’s finally healthy.  Jhonny could easily go on a 6 or 7 HR binge between now and the end of the season, but if you’re in a strike-out league leave ‘em alone.

4. Luis Castillo – New York Mets – 10% Owned – 45th in Y!

Castillo’s one to definitely take a look at because if he’s healthy, he’ll run.  He’s always been able to hit the ball, and is getting on base at a fairly solid clip this year.  Those who ignore the old-farts may have looked past Castillo’s increased walk rate and OBP of .411 on the season!  The Mets are falling apart at the seams, but there’s still value.

5. Evereth Cabrera – San Diego Padres – 8% Owned – 46th in Y!

Cabrera’s too young to be an ugly duckling, but at this pace he’s well on his way there.  Nine stolen bases in the last month and 18 on the season look pretty good. Like his mentors above, he has next to no power.

6. Macier Izturis – Los Angeles Angels – 26% Owned – 86th in Y!

Anyone on the LAA is worth taking a look at, but Izturis and Aybar are just painful names to roster.  Izturis has hit 4 Dingers over the last month, but he’ll have troubles keeping that up.  He should be able to continue his run production given that potent Angels line-up.  You could do worse than a .300 hitter with 7 HR and 10 SB on the year.

7. Chris Coghlan – Florida Marlins – 25% Owned – 89th in Y!

Like ya boy Cabrera, Coghlan’s still a youngin’.  Coghlan brings a little bit of everything to the table but nothing’s gaudy enough to stand out.  The kid manages to get on base at a steady clip and when you’re on base in a playoff hunt, good things happen.

8. Felipe Lopez – Milwaukee Brewers – 69% Owned – 117th in Y!

We’ll end with Lopez who’s an ugly duckling with a single terrific feature.   The strange thing is that Lopez hasn’t even tried to steal bases, let alone reach the 20′s that fantasy owners expected.  At this point, he’s got a starting gig and he’s getting on base to score runs.  Goodtimes.

All of these guys are useful in pretty much any league, but because they don’t excel in any single category they end up flying under the radar.  Rostering a kid like Coghlan, even at a UTIL spot, is a great way to get across the board production.  These guys won’t stand out, but they’ll help you win just about any league.

Felipe Lopez

A Sneak Peak Into The Future! Playoffs?

Playoffs?!?! You’re talking about Playoffs? Playoffs? I’m just hoping we can win a game.

If you’re still scouring the internet for fantasy baseball details, you’re probably still in the hunt, and you’re probably thinkin’ about playoffs.  I figured I’d go old school for a bit, and remind everyone of the power of the schedule.  The schedule is a powerful beast:  Hell, up here in Toronto, people genuinely thought the Blue Jays had a shot of making a playoff run back in May.

The schedule doesn’t effect the top-tier players the same way that it effects the “guess hitters” or the “mistake hitters.”  When a mistake hitter starts facing pitchers that make mistakes, good things tend to happen.

First off, to establish the worst pitching in the big-leagues I used a simple, sloppy method:  I sorted by ERA.  It’s not pretty, nor precise, but it’s definitely close enough.

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Team	W	L	ERA	HR	BB	SO
Indians	49	63	5.07	127	406	685
Orioles	47	66	5.05	143	371	653
Nationals	40	73	5.03	114	426	623
Brewers	55	57	4.86	151	421	759
Angels	67	44	4.76	135	371	740
Twins	54	58	4.73	131	319	699
Royals	44	68	4.71	113	389	797
Padres	48	66	4.57	127	405	829
Athletics	50	63	4.49	112	386	770
Astros	55	58	4.45	125	392	800
Reds	49	63	4.43	138	417	740
Pirates	46	66	4.41	103	397	630
Phillies	62	48	4.37	141	362	783

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I arbitrarly drew the line at Philadelphia, but it seems fair enough considering the park factor and home-run rate.  It’s about the bottom third of the league, give or take.

So who faces these masterful pitching disasters, and how often?

National League:

St. Louis Cardinals, Cincinnati Reds  & Pittsburgh Pirates

Each of these squads have at least 8 or 9 series in the closing months against the dirty bakers dozen of pitching staffs.

Schumaker, DeRosa and Ludwick are liable to go on monster streaks the rest of the way home.  The Rasmus/Ankiel platoon will also prove to be fairly useful.  The Reds will always be interesting and Johnny Gomes definitely stands out as a player that’ll benefit from a cushy schedule.  Chris Dickerson, who’s potential made everyone squirm a bit, should also provide a jump-start in deeper leagues, given ABs.  Finally, the Pirates — Oh, the Pirates:  If they’re  allowed to run, Milledge and McCutchen could be very interesting.  Steven Pearce is probably also going to put together at least a couple weeks of solid ball — we’re talking deep leagues now, though.

Milwaukee Brewers, Florida Marlins, Chicago Cubs and Atlanta Braves

Cameron and Lopez are two Brewers that’ll probably benefit the most from the August/September home stretch.  The Marlins are the Marlins, and they’ll swing at just about everything — they all get a bump.  I can’t really deal with the Braves, but Chipper should probably end the season on a tear if he stays healthy.

Finally, I’d like to solely focus on Alfonso Soriano, but Milton Bradley’s going to be pesky good.  Soriano is exactly the kind of player that’ll go on a huge tear when he faces a streak of bad pitching.  I’d love to whole-heartedly recommend Soriano, but the questions surrounding his age and steroid use are numerous.

Arizona Diamondbacks and Houston Astros

A little bump across the board to everyone on these two trains.  I don’t think that I’ll be acquiring them, but I’d think about Stephen Drew.

American League:

Texas Rangers, Minnesota Twins, Kansas City Royals, Detroit Tigers, Chicago White Sox, and the Cleveland Indians.

The Bad Teams in the American League all start facing each other very shortly.  There should be a fair amount of high-scoring games, if over-under’s your thing.

Billy Butler, Carlos Quentin, Orlando Cabrera, all spring to mind as players who’ll benefit.  Furthermore, I’d love to recommend Magglio Ordonez for a nice little bounce back, but he’s so damn fat and old.  If you have bigger reproductive organs than I, please go ahead and make a deal.  Grady Sizemore could well be a top-20 player the rest of the way home, even if the Runs and RBI aren’t there.

Oakland, Anaheim, Baltimore and Seattle also have some interesting match-ups.

This is by no means a fantasy prediction, but rather just a recommendation.  Go ahead and take a quick look at the schedules, and I can promise you that Orlando Cabrera facing 5.00 ERA pitching is going to be better than even the best short-stop facing sub-2.50 ERA pitching down the stretch.

Felipe Lopez

Boogity-Boogity-Boo Let’s Go Racing: Bonifacio and Updates

Opening Day is jam-done, so what have we learned?

Emilio Bonifacio is better suited for America’s Mid-West, cause he’s cookin’ up some speed.  He’ll be the number one waiver wire claim, almost certainly. Will it last? Does Speed Last in a Trailer Park? Does a Trailer Park Last in Tornado Alley?

The Baseball Cube has Bonifacio coming in at a 97 speed which, after looking through his 6 minor league seasons, means he’s stealing a base every three games or so.  His speed numbers took a huge hit in the 2008 season, but I coudln’t be bothered sifting through injury reports at this point.  Bonifacio’s Minor League Numbers are available here, if you’d like to break it down.

So the speed is no joke, but what about the Pitcher / Catcher combo he was running on all night.  Lannan’s a lefty, so I’m assuming he’s at least half-decent with his pick-off move.  How he is out of the stretch, who knows — I didn’t get to watch the game.

Jesus Flores is about a league-average to slightly above average, defensive catcher.  Flores has thrown out roughly 30 percent of base runners in the past two years, which is quite a solid number. He’s predicted to throw out roughly 24 percent of theives this year, which puts him right at league average.

So there were no “free” passes, from what I can gather having not watched the game.  However, Bonifacio’s main problem is getting his arse on-base. He’s predicted to hit only .260-.270, and get on-base around .315 by just about all of the prediction robots.

Florida likes to run, and Bonifacio will run, if he can just get on base.  What you should be focusing on, is Bonifacio batting lead-off.  If he continues to hit lead-off, then he’ll have some serious fantasy value.  With the amount of power hitting strike-out artists batting behind him in the line-up, I’d expect plenty of straight-steals and plenty o’ runs scored.

How long he can hold off Maybin, will determine Bonifacio’s true value.  In deep leagues, I’d pounce if he’s still around.  I’d imagine he would have got nabbed after Dirty Dallas McPherson’s release, if you’re in a deep league though.

If someone like Carlos Gomez, Elvis Andrus or Michael Bourn isn’t rostered in your league — You probably don’t want to rush out and grab Bonifacio.

In other news, Brandon Ryan got the start at second base for the Cardinals.  Skip Schumaker came in to pitch hit, and promptly stole a base.   This is probably more to due with Paul Maholm being a lefty than anything else (Ryan’s a righty, and Skip’s a leftie.)

If you have a waiver-wire claim in for Skip Schumaker as your second-baseman, I’d make sure to keep it active.  In Yahoo Leagues, Schumaker should be a second basemen a week from now.

Neither Justin Upton, nor Mark Reynolds were in the line-up today to face Righty Aaron Cook. Eric Byrnes filled in nicely, going 0-fer with 2 strike-outs. Tony Clark on the other hand, who played first with Chad Tracy moving to third, KILLED THE OMFG SMASH-KILLING OF THE BASEBALL. He and my most favourite of Lopez’s (including, but not limited to, George Lopez,) Felipe Lopez, smashed killed the ball for 2 HR each.  Both Clark and Lopez, did it batting both left handed, and right handed.

No other real surprises, except that Caesar Izturis owners are probably talking a whole-lotta shit right now after 1 HR and 5 total bases.

Blue Jays Win! Lind and Snider look great! 161 left.

Felipe Lopez

Top Second Basemen In Keeper Dynasty League

Second basemen don’t grow on trees, and they’re pretty tough to predict coming out of the minors.  You’ll find most second basemen are converted shortstops that lack athleticism or a gun for an arm.  Learning the pivot, or learning how to read the ball from the other side of the diamond aren’t easy, but they’re a lot easier than adding range or a better arm…..now that steroids are gone, anyways.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Ian Kinsler – TEX Rangers – 26 – Edges out Pedroia’s career year of 2008.  Kinsler has to avoid injury, but other than that he’s a great power-speed combo. I’d like to see Kinsler show *it* for another year before giving him this spot, but I’m just not that high on Pedroia’s skill-set.

2. Dustin Pedroia – BOS Red Sox – 25 – Not the most talented guy, but he’s got a solid average and is in a great line-up.

3. Chase Utley – PHI Phillies – 30 - Utley starts the year out on the DL, and he’s starting to get old for a MI.  You should expect 3 or 4 more years of great power numbers.

4. Brandon Phillips – CIN Reds – 27 – Great Power / Speed combo, and so long as the Reds are mediocre, he’ll continue to swipe bags well into his early-to-mid thirties.  Great ballpark, and a maturing Bruce / Votto combo should start driving him in.

5. Alexei Ramirez – CHI White Sox – 27 - I couldn’t be more on the fence about Ramirez.  He ranks lower as a shortstop than a second basemen.  I tend to think that the Ramirez SS experience doesn’t last more than a year or so.  Ramirez reminds everyone of Alfonso Soriano, as he’ll swing at damn near anything.  If pitchers figure him out, he’ll be in trouble.

6. Dan Uggla – FLA Marlins – 29 - A Whole lotta power that’ll stick around for at least another 4 or 5 years. I dont know how many 100 R / 100 RBI seasons he’s got left in him though.

7. Howie Kendrick – LA Angels – 25 - Should eventually become a hitting machine. He’s a unique talent that just can’t stay healthy.  The Angels are a solid franchise, and although they’re aging — they’ll reload, allowing Kendrick to score boat-loads of runs.

8. Robbie Cano – NY Yankees – 26 - Cano should return to his .300+ ways, in which case he’ll be moved up a spot or two.  Wherever he hits, he’ll score ‘em and knock ‘em in. I’d like to see a couple months of the old Cano before I get too excited.

9. Kelly Johnson – ATL Braves – 27 - Should continue to develop as he matures.  Solid Braves line-up, and some power potential in there.

10. Jose Lopez – SEA Mariners – 25 – Young and talented, but I’m worried about him repeating his stellar 2008 season though.  Who knows how awful that Mariners line-up will be in 2009, let alone when Ichiro departs.

11. Brian Roberts – BAL Orioles – 31 - I’m not sure how much speed Roberts has left in those legs.  He’ll probably have a couple 30+ SB seasons left in ‘em, and the O’s line-up is improved enough to knock him in.  When he falls off though, he’s going to fall off hard and fast.  Roberts is one of the nicer guys in the big leagues, which is strange considering he was all up in that Mitchell Report.

12. Rickie Weeks – MIL Brewers – 26 - He’s got a year, maybe two, to put it all together.  Even if he doesn’t put it together, he’ll contribute steals and runs without hurting you *too* much.

13. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 - Injuries starting to catch up to him, and who knows how long he’ll keep his second base eligibility. It’ll be nice to see what Figgins can do with a return to full health.  He’s been used sparingly, so he’s probably got a few more years left in those legs.

14. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Power potential + Plays in Coors.  That’s pretty much all you need to know.  He may fit better at 3rd, or in the outfield.  Lots of potential here though.

15. Matt Antonelli – SD Padres – 23 – First of the big-name prospects, Antonelli has had a rollercoaster ride in the Minors.  He still projects to be damn good though. Unfortunately, he plays in San Diego.

16. Alexi Casilla – MIN Twins – 24 – I like Alexi more than most, and he’ll bring a solid BA and SB numbers to the table.

17. Aaron Hill – TOR Blue Jays – 27 - If Aaron Hill picks up where he left off, he’ll mature into a second basemen with low-20′s HR power.  Post Concussion really sidetracked him, and who knows if he’ll ever be the same.

18. Mike Aviles – KC Royals – 28 – KC will be improved, but you’re drafting Aviles average which isn’t the safest bet.  Remember how Sanchez followed up his .330 BA season?  Always be hesitant drafting late bloomers.

19. Felipe Lopez – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Yah Yah Yah – I’m big on Lopez, You get it.

20. Eric Young Jr. – COL Rockies – 23 - Young’s stock has been more volatile than the DOW.  With an amazing Arizona Fall League, and Spring Training — Young’s back.  With Colorado’s outfield crowded with top-tier prospects, he may stick at 2nd.  He’s back in the minors for the time being though. When he gets the call, he’ll at least contribute to SB to start.

21. Absdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians – 23 - He may take a while to mature, and you’re going to need patience.  He could show flashes as soon as this year. He’s a solid sleeper this year, and a great buy-low keeper option.

22. Chris Getz – CHI White Sox – 25 – If he was guarenteed the job, he’d be higher.  Dustin Pedroia brought scrappy, unathletic, slow, short, white-dude back in style and Getz should cash in.  All Getz has to do is fight off Nix and Lillibridge.

23. Aki Iwamura – TB Rays – 30 - He’ll score 100 runs for the next couple years.

24. Alberto Callaspo – KC Royals – 25 - I thought the D-Backs would hold onto Callaspo; alas he’s part of the KC mess at 2b.  He might project as a better UTIL player than an everyday player but there’s upside in there, somewhere.

25. Mark DeRosa – CLE Indians – 34 - A solid bet for a year or two of solid production.  Not 2008-type production, but production.

26. Anderson Hernandez – WAS Nationals – 26 – I’m not sure how this mess turns out, but it’ll have minimum value for the next couple years unless Hernandez rises to the top of the newly potent Nats line-up.

27. Eric Patterson – OAK Athletics – 25 - Probably projects as an outfielder, but the A’s were wise to nab him from the Cubs. Patterson was recently optioned, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the call as soon as this year.

28. Orlando Hudson – LA Dodgers – 31 – He’s in a solid line-up, and he’ll contribute for maybe a year and a half.  Realistically, Hudson could go anywhere from 23rd to 30th.

29. Kaz Matsui – HOU Astros – 33 - No more anal fissures.  He’ll hit for a decent average, score runs and steal bases.  Nice filler while you wait on the next big thing.

30. Emmanuel Burriss – SF Giants – 24 - Lots of Speed, but’ll probably have to battle tooth and nail for the 2B job.  We’ll see soon enough… Bruce Bochy announces the winner tomorrow, I believe.

31. Placido Polanco – DET Tigers – 33 - Detroit’s got a solid line-up, and I think Polanco has another year and a bit left in it.  He’ll hit for a good average and score runs. Second Base gets old in a hurry.

32. Freddy Sanchez – PIT Pirates – 31 - Paying for batting average is the last thing I’d do.  If the LaRoche brothers somehow transform into the steroid era bash brothers, then maybe Sanchez will have long-term value.

33. Mike Fontenot – CHI Cubs – 28 - Fontenot or Miles, they’ll probably split the job until a Free Agent comes in.  Both of their values are thrown in the trash because of the time-share.

34. Blake DeWitt – LA Dodgers – 23 - I’m assuming he’ll eventually come in at third-base, rather than second. Should be an above average UTIL guy, with a season of two worth of starter’s production.

35. Jerry Hairston Jr. – CIN Reds – 32 - Cheapo steals and average this year.

36. Luis Valbuena – CLE Indians – 24 - Keep an eye out.

37. Clint Barmes – COL Rockies – 30 - Boring.

38. Mark Ellis – OAK Athletics – 31 - Ditto.

39. Willy Aybar – TAM Rays – 26 – There’s actually some value in Aybar’s versatility, but he’s not a keeper.

40. Kevin Frandsen – SF Giants – 26 - I don’t think he keeps the job for more than a year, or a month, or a month, or a week.

41. Travis Denker – SD Padres – 23 - Antonelli has it, but keep an eye out.

Skip Schumaker – STL Cardinals – 29 - Skip’s been working out at second base all spring and if he lands the job, which he should, he’ll be able to contribute.  I wouldn’t feel bad about putting him in the Mid-to-High Teens.

Mark Teahan – KC Royals – 27 - There’s no way he sticks at 2B.  He’s athletic as hell, and has a good arm — but he’ll need some serious seasoning to pick the position up.  If he does, he has above average power and is in an improving Royals line-up.  Low-20s.

Felipe Lopez

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Shortstops

If you’re in a keeper league, shortstop is always the hardest position to fill.  In 2009, the shortstop position is a mess and if you don’t get one early, you’re in trouble.

Luckily there’s help just around the corner, unfortunately it’s not in the yahoo player pool quite yet. Mike Moustakas, and Gordon Beckham aren’t all that far away and should probably be in the pool by next year, if not later this year.  Tim Beckham and Wilmer Flores on the other hand are still a couple years away, but you never know what Yahoo and ESPN will do to their player pool come 2010.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

Onto the Shortstop Rankings for a Deep (ish) Keeper or Dynasty League

1. Hanley Ramirez – FLA Marlins – 25 - Number one pick in fantasy this year, and probably for the next 5 years.  Any decrease in speed should be off-set by an increase in power.

2. Jose Reyes – NY Mets – 25 - At some point he’ll develop power, until then just enjoy the ride.  The first two picks really need no explanation at all.

3. Troy Tulowitzki – COL Rockies – 24 - This is where the explanations begin:  Tulo isn’t the most talented offensive shortstop left on the board, but he does play in Colorado. His glove-work will help keep him on the field throughout the worst o’ slumps.

4. Stephen Drew – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 – Drew has better offensive potential than Tulo and is starting to come into his own.  This may be Drew’s break-out year, and ranking Drew and Tulowitzki is a coin flip.

5. Alexei Ramirez – CHI White Sox – 27 - Ramirez is a popular pick this year, and he brings a rare power/speed combo to the table. He’s a free swinger, and while I woudln’t go out of my way to pick him in a one year league; he has solid long-term value.

6. J.J. Hardy – MIL Brewers – 26 - Hardy brings much needed power to a light hitting position. At 26, Hardy is just starting to enter his power prime.  Expect improvement.

7. Jimmy Rollins – PHI Phillies – 30 - Rollins had a terrible year last year, but he managed to save it by stealing a shit-tonne of bases.  The speeds slowly going to fade away, so Rollins needs to prove he return to his 20-30 HR days.

8. Rafael Furcal – LA Dodgers – 31 – Furcal’s starting to get up there in age and he’s pretty gosh-darn fragile.  I’m assuming 31 is his actual age, but who knows. He’s still performing at an efficient level, and there shouldn’t be a drop off for another couple years.  Nice Power/Speed combo.

9. Jhonny Peralta – CLE Indians – 26 - Peralta is a masher and after his disastrous 2006 season, he’s continued to improve.  He’s pretty much a lock for 20+ HR, and should continue to improve.  His batting average no longer kills him, so he’s a nice bet for your starting SS.

10. Yunel Escobar – ATL Braves – 26 - I probably have Escobar higher than most, but with an eye like Escobar’s — there’s something there.  Escobar posted damn-near as many walks as he did strike-outs, and while his batting average was sub-.300, he’ll push it up and over that mark to stay in 2009. Escobar isn’t a power guy, nor is he a speed guy but he is going to be the SS for a young, talented, Braves team.  With the amount he gets on base, he’ll be scoring plenty of runs with Franceour, Schafer, Heyward, and the harem of minor-league talent in Atlanta.

11. Elvis Andrus – TEX Rangers – 20 - Speed, Speed and more Speed.  He’ll develop the rest in due time.  The stolen bases should keep him rosterable during the slow maturation process though.

12. Derek Jeter – NY Yankees – 34 - I haven’t the fondest clue as to how much Jeter has left in the tank, let alone how long he’ll stick at shortstop.  While he’s there, he’ll provide a little bit of everything.

13. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 - Does he stick at short? Does he cut down on those strike-outs? Wood has all of the potential in the world, but unless he cuts down on those K’s, he’ll be one of the biggest busts of the century.

14. Alcides Escobar – MIL Brewers – 22 – Escobar’s got a great glove, that’ll keep him in any line-up.  He’s currently blocked by Hardy at SS, but Hardy will be the one to move.  Milwaukee has enough talent in the pipe-line to trade Matt LaPorta, so there’s no reason to believe that Escobar won’t be a run scoring machine.

15. Jed Lowrie – BOS Red Sox – 24 - I’m not a believer, and I’m not sure how long he’ll stick at the shortstop position.  If he sticks, he’ll provide great value from a hard to fill position.

16. Michael Young – TEX Rangers – 32 - Young’s shortstop eligibility is gone after this year.  I’m not sure where to rank him based on this.  He’ll probably log between 10 and 15 games at Shortstop this year, so he could potentially maintain his eligibility. He’s got a great team, and a great ballpark which leads  me to believe that he’ll remain useful for a few more years.

This is where the fun begins, as we’re getting into the guys that aren’t guarenteed a job, or are old as dirt.  Either way, expecting more than 2 seasons out of them is asking a lot.  If you’ve got a feeling — go with it!

17. Mike Aviles – KC Royals – 28 - Is Aviles a late-bloomer or a bust waiting to happen.  Aviles just keeping the seat warm for Moustakas.

18. Miguel Tejada – HOU Astros – 34 - I’m not sure what’s left in the tank, even if he avoided jail time.  He’s probably got about 2 years left of being somewhat rosterable. The solid Astro’s line-up should at least keep his counting stats up.

19. Khalil Greene – STL Cardinals – 29 - I’m tempering my man-crush on Khalil in the keeper rankings.  Greene has the potential to really move up these rankings, and he’s still young enough to contribute for 4 or 5 more years.  I’d definitely recommend taking a flier on Greene this year.

20. Ryan Theriot – CHI Cubs – 29 – As high as I am on Greene, I’m equally as down on Theriot.  I am not a believer, and after this year he may well be without a job.  There’s potential here, but I’m not buying the hype.  The solid line-up really saves him from a free-fall.

21.  Felipe Lopez – ARZ Diamondbacks – 29 - I like Lopez a good bit this year, and he has a whole lotta potential buried inside — somewhere.  If he’s allowed to run, he’ll fit somewhere between Wood and Jeter.

22. Jason Barlett – TAM Rays – 29 - Barlett’s in a solid line-up and has improved quite a bit since he was traded away from Minnesota. Tampa has a prospect line-up waiting to fill Barlett’s shoes.  If Brignac fails to man up, Bartlett will have a few years to put up stats before Beckham gets to the show.

23. Orlando Cabrera – OAK Athletics – 35 - You might get more than a couple years out of Cabrera. He seems like the kind of player that just wont go away.  He’ll be production for at least 2009, and he might be worth a pick if you think he’ll play at a high level into his late 30s.

24. Edgar Renteria – SF Giants – 34 - Renteria falls into the same category as Cabrera, and while there’s still a few prospects out there — I’d rather take someone like Renteria to contribute the next couple years while I wait to draft a SS prospect.

25. Erick Aybar – LA Angels – 25 – Aybar is a nice little mixture of speed and average.  I’m fairly high on Wood, because of his potential.  Aybar doesn’t have the potential, but he probably has a solid shot at sticking at SS even if Wood starts producing.

26. Absdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians – 23: I like Cabrera, and he should develop into a solid every day second basemen.  He’s got the potential to be above average, but there’s also a bit of risk associated with him.  He’s got the job however, so he’s one of the safer choices under 25 years old.

27. Yuniesky Betancourt

28. Clint Barmes

29. Chin-lung Hu

30. Alberto Gonzalez

31. Brendan Harris

32. Nick Punto

33. Reid Brignac

34. Emmanuel Burriss

35. Alberto Callaspo

36. Nick Punto

37. Brent Lillibridge

38. Marco Scutaro

39. Jerry Hairston Jr.

40. Cody Ransom

The back end of these rankings needs work, but if you’re in a league this deep — you’re probably pretty knowledge about fantasy baseball.

Felipe Lopez

Diva On A Dime: Fantasy Baseball Edition

Diva on a Dime is a downright awful show, that I believe is truly 100% Canadian Goodness. If left unchecked, Canadian televisions stations would just play American TV shows all day, every day — this is how we end up with CANCON, which forces Canadians to sit through hours of awful television.

Anyways, it’s time to create a fantasy baseball roster without using a single player drafted in the top-200 picks according to ESPN’s Average Live Draft Position.  Obviously, with fun little gimmicks like this, we’re going to be going high-risk/high-reward.

Diva On A Dime Hitters (ADP>200)

C: Kelly Shoppach – Pick 211: Shoppach had 21 homers in 352 AB. A lot of people are going to shy away from him because he doesn’t have a spot to play. A healthy Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko really clog up his options.  Lucky for you, good hitters find spots in the line-up.

If you think all three of the aforementioned players stay healthy, then maybe go with Ramon Hernandez (Pick 202) or Jeff Clement (Pick 245).  I’d also take a risk on Saltalamacchia who doesn’t even register with ESPN at this point.

1B: Big Ole Billy Butler – Pick 242: At this point in the draft it makes sense to go with a lighter hitting first baseman with a solid batting average, rather than a masher like Mike Jacobs / Adam LaRoche. Butler’s competition comes from Loney (ADP: 166), Kotchman (ADP: 237) and a few over-the-hill sluggers (Helton, Giambi, Konerko).

Butler however brings the best value, and best power potential of the doubles-machines.  Loney has the better line-up, and batting directly after Manny will allow him ample opportunity to drive in runs, but Butler has a shot at 22-25HR.  Toss in his .300+ average, and an improved Royal’s squad and we have our first baseman.

Bill James’ Projection Model has Butler at: 73 R/ 18HR / 87 RBI / .295 BA with 15 SB — just kidding, but Zips and Marcel have Butler stealing 2 bases in 3 attempts.

2B: Felipe Lopez – Pick 216: I’m all over Lopez like white on rice. 2005 was a 23HR season, and 2006 brought us 44SB.  Lopez is still only 28 years old (turns 29 in May) but it seems like he’s been around forever.

With Lopez on a good team, and apparently wanting to play again — I expect big things.

SS: Khalil Greene – Pick 224: Greene has been smashing the hell out of spring-training pitching to the tune of a .400 average and .560 SLG percentage.  I’ve been high on Greene all winter, and this doesn’t change my mind.  I wouldn’t rate him terribly higher based on these spring training stats because he’s still Khalil Greene, which you can clearly see by comparing his .400 AVG to his .429 OBP.

MI: Orlando Cabrera – Pick 204: I was tempted to go with Elvis Andrus (ADP 228) here, because we’re going to need some serious steals — but we’ve already got Greene killing our BA.

I like Cabrera in the new and improved Oakland line-up, and expecting 20SB to go along with a solid .280 BA, and at least decent Run totals should fill the hole.

The potential for Andrus and his 50SB is tantalizing.

3B: Edwin Encarnacion – Pick 198: Hey, up until a couple days ago he was ranked right at 200th overall.  Every thing’s in-line for a break-out season. I did a write-up on Edwin a couple days ago, it’ll do all the ‘splainin’

CI: Mark Reynods – Pick 202: We need 30 HR from this spot, so this comes down to a brutal battle between Reynolds and Jason Giambi. I’d like to take a chance of Kendry Morales, who doesn’t even register on ESPN — but I’ll save him for later.

The battle between Reynolds and Giambi comes down to BA, and strangely enough Reynolds wins. All of the projection models believe his 2008 average of .239 was a mistake, and he should rebound to anywhere from .249 to .269.  I can live with that, so long as the HR, R, RBI are there.

We also just nabbed ourselves 10 more SB.

OF: Nelson Cruz – Pick 202: Bill James has him coming in at 31HR, 81R, 92RBI with a .280 average.  While i’m not completely sold, and I still somewhat see Cruz as a quad-A player — Cant turn him away at pick 202.

OF: Elijah Dukes – Pick 226: Oh Me, Oh My.  Dukes has all the talent in the world, and could easily go 25HR/25SB but he could also hit 3 HR and steal .75 Bases.  This is the high-risk/high-reward thing I was talking about.

OF: Chris Dickerson – Pick, I dont Know: Let’s drop the bomb and select another potential 25/25 guy with a whole lot of risk.  BJ Robot has him at 37 Steals and 21 HR! I’ll take that.  His skill set is nice, and Reds fan’s will appreciate him.

UTIL: Shin-Soo Choo – Pick 204: Might as well throw in another solid Power / Speed combo guy with a solid average.  At this point, the outfield and util spots have really saved this team.  Choo’s on many folks lists to break out in 2009, and I can’t blame ‘em.

…now onto pitching

SP1: Brandon Morrow – Pick 217: I thought with the hype Morrow was getting he’d be way above this point.  Take Morrow and Run.  He’s got a great K-rate, and while he’s a bit wild, don’t worry be happy.

SP2: Chris Young – Pick 219: Chris Young has bad luck, but isn’t a huge injury concern unless you think he’s been psychologically broken by that Pujols line-drive to the face. With Young you’re getting the potential for a Golden-WHIP (1.13 in 2006, and 1.10 in 2007) and at least 8K per 9.

SP3: Ubaldo Jiminez – Pick 227: You’ll notice we’re loading up on high-strikeout pitchers.  With the lack of saves available to us at this point, we’re probably going to have to punt the category and thus draft some very solid late-inning relievers.  They’ll be bringing low-era, low-whip to offset our massive control issues.

Jiminez is posed for a break-out year, even if half his games are pitched at Coors.

RP1: Jason Motte – Pick 210: Motte’s value will keep rising with the news that he’s won the closer role over Chris Perez, in St. Louis. We’ve got a shot at some saves here, so we might as well take it.

RP2: Jose Arredondo – Pick 233: There’s still a couple closers, but that’s no fun.  If you’re into Huston Street or George Sherrill, the choice is yours. At this point though, Arredondo brings a lot of goodies, like a solid era and a very good K-rate.

Expecting a return to 10-win-land is ridiculous, but pitching in late relief for the Angels will provide him with plenty of chances to nab those random-wins or even saves.  He should be one of the first non-closers off the board.

P: John Maine – Pick 226: Maine regressed in every possible category last year.  If he levels out, you should expect a sub-4.00 ERA, 180K, and round about 1.30ish WHIP.  This is pretty solid for a player who’s upside could easily eclipse these numbers.

P: Manny Parra – Pick 234: I’m banking on Parra improving in 2009, along with him pitching a full-season. Parra’s a solid lefty that should be able to put up 8ish K per 9. The K:BB ratio is only going to be around 1.5, which’ll limit your WHIP to around 1.40ish with a good amount of upside.  Parra won’t repeat the 1.54 disaster  that he called his 2008 WHIP, again.

P: Jared Weaver – Pick 216: Weaver was once a top-prospect that all the fantasy folk were drooling over.  Now, he seems to be an afterthought.  The man’s got terrible hair, but all the potential in the world.  His nearly 8 K per 9, combined with a very solid 2.81 strikesouts per walk, makes for a steal at this pick.

P: Hong Chih-Kuo – Pick 244: I figured I’d toss another reliever in here that’ll put up some solid rate stats.  We’ve got all these high-strikeout, high-walk rate starters that we need to offset. Kuo struck out 96 to only 21 walks in 2008, and in doing so posted a beautiful 4.57 K:BB ratio.

You can use this as a list of sleepers, or just something to kill time but each of these players are available after pick 200 and each could contribute to your team in even the shallowest of standard-leagues.

Felipe Lopez

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining Second Basemen.

ESPN seems to have some glaring holes in the second basemen rankings, so here’s your cup of tea for the day.

RANK	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	Mixed $	AL/NL $	UPDOWN
1	14	Dustin Pedroia	BOS	2B	28	27
There’s no arguing with Pedroia at 1, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of 2008. Pedroia doesn’t strike the same fear you’d expect from an MVP. 14th overall seems right, but second base has a lot of value this year.
2	16	Chase Utley	PHI	2B	26	27
If Utley comes in healthy, and gets at least a little time under his belt prior to the season – he’s number one. Utley has about 3 weeks of the season to take off, before I’d drop him below Brandon Phillips and crew.
3	25	Ian Kinsler	TEX	2B	22	26
The little guy cannot stay healthy, at all. He’s a superb talent that can’t seem to play a whole season. Obviously, you’re going to have to rank Kinsler based on the depth of your league. If you can fill the 25 or so games that Kinsler will miss with a half-decent player, then Kinsler might just be the best fantasy option at second base. As a player, I like him more than Pedroia but less than Utley.
4	34	Brandon Phillips	CIN	2B	17	23
Phillips brings everything except batting average, which he should hike up to at least .270ish this year. Phillips is a given for 20/20 with the possibility of 25/25 or even 25/30! The Reds should be a blast to watch this year, and having Phillips on your team will at least keep things fun.
5	38	Brian Roberts	BAL	2B	16	24
At least the Orioles think that Roberts has something left in the tank, giving him a new multi-year deal. Roberts leaves a little bit to be desired in the power category but more than makes up for it with SB numbers. He went for 50 a couple years ago, and 40 last year. Like the Reds, the O’s are stacked with young talent and should be fun to watch. I figure Roberts will miss 40 SB by a couple.
6	62	Alexei Ramirez	CHW	2B	13	21
Ramirez is the most interesting of the bunch, as he seems to have all the potential in the world. He could easily finish the season as the top second baseman in the league. Not often do you get a player outside the top-50, that has the potential to jump up into the top-15. Here’s the problem with Ramirez: He Swings at Everything and gets caught stealing way too much. Ramirez’s numbers will drop once pitchers completely clue into Ramirez’s hacking ways, and whether or not Ramirez can adjust remains up in the air. Ramirez hit 20 HR and stole 13 bases in limited playing time last year. He was unfortunately caught stealing 9 times. Is 30HR and 25 SB a possibility for Ramirez? A Resounding Yes. Could he also fall flat on his face? Indeed.
7	91	Dan Uggla	FLA	2B	9	18	Down
Uggla posted a career high strike-out rate last year, striking out nearly one third of the time. Thankfully, he also improved upon his walk rate, negating much of the increase. Uggla’s BA is going to kill you, as he’s bound to come in somewhere between .250 and .260. You’re either going to have to punt batting average, or draft a low-HR-high-AVG player in a typical power position. If you can get 20HR and a good AVG out of a player like that, you’ll have two players with about 50 HR between them, to go with a .280 AVG. That’s not bad, and you’ll probably be getting your money’s worth.
8	109	Robinson Cano	NYY	2B	7	18	Up
Robbie started off terribly last year, and playing in the stacked Yankees line-up will definitely help his counting stats. Most of Cano’s value will come from his AVG, or how often he gets on base. Throw Cano’s .270 AVG of 2008 out the window, and remember he used to hit .340.
9	118	Howie Kendrick	LAA	2B	7	17
Kendrick will get hurt, but the kid can hit. He’s in a good line-up and he’s approaching the age when things start to click. Kendrick’s a good boom/bust but Anaheim is stacked in youngins that can play the MI positions.
10	126	Placido Polanco	DET	2B	6	17	Down
Polanco is boring, but Detroit will be improved. Polanco doesn’t do the sexy things, but he hits for average and scores runs. A safety pick that brings about 10 HR, 10SB, a Boatload of Runs and RBI and a .300+ average. People will draft the guys after Polanco before him, because their ceiling is higher – If you want a safe pick though, Polanco’s your man. Nice pick here for ESPN.
11	143	Jose Lopez	SEA	2B	5	16
Lopez has been raking all spring, and a repeat of last year’s numbers seems a very safe bet. Can Lopez step up and reach the 20 HR mark? I’m banking on yes. Lopez’s average will drop but the power numbers should go up. He is in a fairly terrible offense though, so whether or not he brings elite R & RBI is still in question.
12	159	Mike Aviles	KC	2B/SS	4	15	Down
I’m not an Aviles fan, and I think this is still too high. I love the Royals this year, but Aviles is a bit old to be a rookie in my book.
13	175	Mark DeRosa	CLE	2B/3B/OF	3	14
DeRosa started out as a fairly sexy pick, and has returned to where he probably should be valued. He had a career year last year, and while I wouldn’t expect a complete repeat – there’s still good value here.
14	185	Rickie Weeks	MIL	2B	2	13
It’s Rickie’s last shot, and I think he goes hog-wild on the basepaths. Alcides Escobar is breathing down the neck of whomever falters in the infield. Rickie Weeks and the next couple guys showcase the benefits of waiting on a second baseman and then grabbing a couple high-risk players and hoping one pans out.
15	187	Kelly Johnson	ATL	2B	2	13
Kelly Johnson does what he does and does it well. He’s not spectacular, nor does he play in an incredible line-up, but he still has value. The .5 BB:K ratio isn’t awful, but he could cut down on his 20+ percent K Rate. BABIP says expect a downturn in AVG. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up the ante on last years 12HR. 15Ish? 17?
16	196	Felipe Lopez	ARI	2B	1	13	Up
My favourite sleeper this year. Lopez should be hitting near the top of that stacked Diamondback line-up. The deal with Lopez is he only plays when he wants to, so his stats tend to lie. Remember, it was only 2 years ago that Lopez stole 44 Bases.
17	222	Freddy Sanchez	PIT	2B	1	12	Down
The Pirates are improving but Sanchez’s value is based on his batting average. If you can predict BA, then you can go ahead and rank Sanchez wherever you please. If he hits .330 again, he’ll be a steal. The improvement in the Pirates give Sanchez a bit of lee-way, as he could well score 90-95 Runs.
18	223	Orlando Hudson	LAD	2B	1	12
Hudson and the Dodgers. I’d move him up. He’ll be in a great line-up and I’m starting to think he bats early in the line-up rather than late in it. With Kemp, Manny and Loney behind him he’s just gotta get on base. I’d take him over Sanchez any day.
19	253	Kazuo Matsui	HOU	2B	$-	12
Matsui is starting to get up there in age but he stole 20 bases in under 400 AB in 2008. Matsui’s nearly .300 average last year, made him a steal. He probably won’t repeat the average, but a slight increase in steals if he plays a full season is very realistic. The possibility of 30SB to go with a .280 AVG is pretty appealing at this point.
20	258	Mark Ellis	OAK	2B	$-	11
Ellis had a very solid year last year, and Oakland has went out and re-loaded this off-season. With the maturation of Travis Buck, Daric Barton and the addition of Matt Holliday, and Jason Giambi; Oakland should be a very solid offense. Expect Ellis to quietly put up solid numbers.
21	268	Akinori Iwamura	TAM	2B	$-	10
He’ll put up damn near 100 runs to go with a solid batting average. You get what you pay for.
22	294	Mike Fontenot	CHC	2B	$-	9
Fontenot should get the job, but Aaron Miles is right there. If either of these two can get to 550AB, they’re in a good enough offense to outperform their draft spot. Pick 300 seems about right for the higher-upside Fontenot.
23	295	Clint Barmes	COL	2B/SS	$-	8	Down
I’m not a Barmes fan, mainly because I love Ian Stewart so. You could do worse at this point, but this tier of second basemen is very deep.
24	299	Asdrubal Cabrera	CLE	2B/SS	$-	9	Up
I’m high on Cabrera, and Cleveland in general. I wouldn’t have any problem putting Cabrera in Aviles spot, but anyone from 15 to 5 Dollars has the possibility to preform.
25	323	Aaron Hill	TOR	2B	$-	8
Aaron Hill is a steal at this point if he plays all year. Post Concussion Syndrome is a bitch, though. The Jays have a solid, yet not spectacular, offense. Hill will probably outperform his peers.
26	334	Luis Castillo	NYM	2B	$-	7	Down
He has the second base job, but I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. At this point, the speed has gone and while he may have a resurgence in a decent Mets line-up, I wouldn’t expect too much.
27	378	Emmanuel Burriss	SF	2B/SS	$-	6
Speed, Speed, Speed, Kelly Fransden. Burriss needs to find a spot to play to be valuable. He’s definitely worth a late round flyer based on speed alone. Same goes for Velez. The Giants are going to have to manufacture runs this year, which means speed on the basepaths.
28	394	Maicer Izturis	LAA	2B/SS	$-	6
I’m not sure how Maicer falls into this spot with the Kendrick Ranking. Maybe he’s a solid fill-in, maybe he only gets 300 AB.
29	413	Anderson Hernandez	WAS	2B	$-	5
Hernandez is someone I’d take over the previous few guys. He’s got the starting gig in a good Nats line-up and he’ll steal bases even if he gets caught. The power wont be there, but at this point what can you expect. Most of the Robots have him coming in at .250, but I’d expect more in the range of the high-.260s, low-.270s and there’s always the chance of him maturing faster than expected.
30	424	Chris Getz	CHW	2B	$-	6	Up
Getz has been compared to Pedroia, at least in stature. I’m not certain as to why Getz has fallen so far in these rankings, but he definitely deserves to be higher in a good-line up that hits in a solid park. I bet he comes closer to 10 dollars than 6 dollars.
31	427	Ronnie Belliard	WAS	2B/3B/1B	$-	4	Down
Boring, and no place to play….yet. With his versatility, he’ll eventually find a place to play.
32	429	Blake DeWitt	LAD	2B/3B	$-	4	Down
Poor DeWitt. Blake’s got third, and Hudson was brought in to play second. The outfield is also packed. Someone’s gotta get hurt for DeWitt to produce.
33	460	Kevin Frandsen	SF	2B	$-	3
Boring, really boring. It’s hard to hype up Frandsen when you’re praying for Burriss or Velez to take his spot.
34	467	Aaron Miles	CHC	2B/SS	$-	3
Fontenot gets the job, but if you’re in a league this deep it makes sense to bet on Miles getting the job. Fontenot has some faults, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Miles snag the job
35	473	Nick Punto	MIN	2B/SS	$-	3
Punto was hurt a lot by the signing of Crede but like Belliard, he has all sorts of versatility. I think Punto out preforms the previous couple guys all the way up to Chris Getz.
36	479	Jeff Baker	COL	2B/1B	$-	2
If Helton goes down as expected, Baker will find a place to play. Otherwise, Barmes, Stewart, Tulu, and Atkins will fill the infield spots.
37	488	Brendan Ryan	STL	2B/SS	$-	1
We’re getting into very boring land, and I’d much rather take a risky pick with this selection but 1 dollar is fair.
38	523	Brendan Harris	MIN	2B/SS/3B	$-	1
A starting gig and maturation should get Harris at least to a few bucks. He’s a steal this late.
39	526	Marco Scutaro	TOR	2B/SS/3B	$-	1	Up
Full time starter, in a decent offense is worth more than a buck. His average isn’t so awful that he’ll hurt you.
40	529	Eugenio Velez	SF	2B	$-	1	Up
Ditto Emmanuel Burriss.
41	548	Alexi Casilla	MIN	2B	$-	1	Way Up
Really, this is what’s up? Casilla is a beast, and I adore the man. What the hell is ESPN thinking? .280 AVG with 25-30SB and you’re ranking him 41st? I have him in the top 10!
42	683	Ronny Cedeno	SEA	2B/SS	$-	1
43	704	Ray Durham	FA	2B	$-	$-
44	719	Adam Kennedy	TAM	2B	$-	$-
45	722	Mark Grudzielanek	FA	2B	$-	$-
46	730	Mark Loretta	LAD	2B	$-	$-
47	738	Adrian Cardenas	OAK	2B	$-	$-
48	739	Joe Inglett	TOR	2B/OF	$-	$-
49	745	Alberto Callaspo	KC	2B	$-	$-	Up
I have trouble believing that Teahan can stick at 2nd.
50	746	Edgar Gonzalez	SD	2B	$-	$-

Here’s the problem: ESPN released new rankings, and has people floating around all over the field but failed to mention the two guys that seem like a lock at second base.

Skip Schumaker – St. Louis Cardinals: Skip is a dirty dirty man, and has faired very well at second base.  While he only hit 8 HR, he went for 87R and 8 SB while batting above .300.  Right now, he looks like a glamorized Aki Iwamura, but just wait — he’ll be a top-10 2nd basemen.

Mark Teahan – Kansas City Royals: Teahan looked half-decent at the WBC playing third, and he’s got a great arm.  However, playing second base for the Royals has been a chore.  He keeps committing errors, and Collaspo is a fine replacement.  In a perfect fantasy world, Teahan would get enough bats at 2nd Base to gain eligibility and then return to the outfield.  His bat makes him roster-able as a second basemen, but not particularly an outfielder.

Matt Antonelli – San Diego Padres: Antonelli slept through the majority of the 2008 season, waking up occasionally to strike out.  However, this is still the uber-prospect who made 2007 his bitch.  Maybe he makes the big club out of camp, but he’ll probably spend some time down in the minors now that the Padres got the super-talented David Eckstein.  I’d still rather have Antonelli over the Joe Inglett’s of the world.

The Phillies Situation – Marcus Giles, WHAT? and Eric Bruntlett: Bruntlett is penciled in at every conceivable spot on the Phillies depth chart.  If Utley misses serious time, one of these two gents could actually have some value.  Marcus Giles? Yah, he’s in camp.  He used to be very good too, so if you’re in a deep deep league — take a flyer, maybe.

German Duran – Texas Rangers: There’s some upside here, but he only gets a shot if Kinsler hurts himself, which is guarenteed.  25 Games, it is.  If Kinsler ever goes down permenantly, Duran should be nabbed up in deeper leagues.

Eric Young Jr. – Colorado Rockies: He killed Arizona fall league pitching, and has been taking some practice at second base — maybe worth a shot.  If he gets a job in the outfield or at second, he’ll steal some.

Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox: As of today, Tuesday March 17th, Gordon Beckham is listed atop the White Sox depth chart at second base.  AWESOME.  Beckham was drafted last year, 8th overall and is just a wee lil child.  Anyways, if he starts he’s good enough, as raw as he is, to ball out.  It’ll be a roller-coaster ride though.  White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen seems to think that Beckham shouldn’t be used as a UTIL man under any circumstances — which is stellar for Beckham’s development and his keeper league prospects.

Angel Berroa – New York Yankees: Here’s the deal, Cano had an MRI yesterday and it revealed bursitis of the shoulder.  This is not good, and there’s a good chance it’ll flare up again throughout the season.  Those little bursae sacs are bastards, and if Cano can’t go or Jeter gets hurt, Berroa steps in.  In that Yankee line-up, anyone can be successful.

Felipe Lopez

Magic Mark: 40 Stolen Bases.

Boogity, Boogity, Boogity. Let’s go racing.  Each year, somewhere around ten guys go and swipe forty bases. Occasionally, someone will go and destroy the 40-SB mark and post a number like 68 (Tavares, 2008) or 78 (Reyes, 2007).

Only the total stolen bases will be factored when evaluating potential 40-SB guys in 2009.  I’ll include CS (caught stealing) and NSB (net stolen bases) if they stand out, or give some variety of insight — but I wont be ranking the players based on either of these statistics.

Value Predicated On Speed and Speed Alone:

Willy Tavares – Cincinnati Reds: Tavares managed to snag himself a 6.25M dollar deal with the Reds this off-season, paying him 2.25M in 2009 and 4M in 2010. Tavares does what he does, and does it well — He steals bases at a great clip: 68 SB in 75 attempts.  Recently Tavares dropped a WORD-BOMB courtesy of Dayton’s Daily-est of All Daily News:

Taveras, newest leadoff hitter for the Cincinnati Reds, doesn’t change expressions when he says, “I can steal 100 bases this year.”

That’s because Taveras believes he should get 700 plate appearances this year. He also believes he can hit .300 and raise his on-base average to .350.

“Do all that and, yes, I can see steal 100 bases,” he said.

While I’m not particularly high on guys like Tavares, last year’s .251 average wasn’t indicative of Tavares’ actual ability.  Tavares is more likely to go and put up a .275 to .280 average. Bill James, CHONE, and Marcel have him coming in at .282, .273, and .276 respectively. Competition: Chris Dickerson.

Michael Bourn – Houston Astros: With Bourn, you’re getting a terrible batting average. A Batting Average so bad, he may eventually swing himself out of the line-up. Hopefully last year’s .229 average was a mistake that can be improved upon, and even hiking it up to .250 would exponentially raise his value.

Bourn recently inked himself a 1-year 434K contract, and while he didn’t show that a contract year meant an increase in production last year — he hopefully does this year. Bourn went for 41 SB in 2008, and was only nabbed 10 times. If the speedy Bourn can keep his butt in the line-up, I’d expect an increase across the board.  With Carlos Lee back to health, Bourn’s opportunities may decline but he should still manage to top 40 stolen bases. Competition: OBP

Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins: In 2008, his first full season in the bigs, Carlos Gomez went 33 for 44 in the stolen base category. Unfortunately, like Michael Bourn, Gomez has some serious OBP issues which are magnified by a ridiculous K%.  There’s no conceivable reason that your lead-off hitter of the future should be striking out a quarter of the time while only walking 4.6% of the time.  This is unfortunately in-line with Gomez’s minor league numbers. There is a glimmer of hope though: Gomez managed to only strike-out 16.9% of the time, while walking 9.9% of the time in Triple-A in 2007.  Unfortunately when Gomez was called up in 2007, he posted a 21.7 strike-out percentage to go with a 6.0% walk rate.

If Gomez can maintain the starting CF job the entire year, he should have no problems getting to the magic mark of 40-SB.  Unfortunately, the Minnesota Twins have a lot of young-talented-outfielders.  Right now, it’s shaping up with Delmon Young in left, Gomez in Center, and Cuddyer in right, with Kubel DHing. This leaves Denard Span as the fourth outfielder, and Jason Pridie out in the cold.  If Gomez can’t hack it, Span will step in and flourish. Competition: Getting the Bat on the Ball and Denard Span’s picture perfect smile.

Jerry Owens – Chicago White Sox: Owens has become a master of bringing the suck, but he can still fly. Owens currently sits atop the CF depth chart for your Chicago White Sox, but Ozzie Guillen tends to believe otherwise hinting that Wise has the inside gig on the starting CF job. It’ll be interesting to see if Owens can wrangle-up enough at-bats with Brian Anderson and DeWayne Wise out there.  In 2007, Owens managed 93 Games for the Sox and proceeded to steal 32 Bases (went 32/4o) — Good. If Owens can manage 450-500 AB in 2009, he has a realistic shot at 40 SB.

Unfortunately,  he brings nothing else to the table and will more than likely kill your average.  Right now, it does appear to be one of those full fledged “open-competitions” that we always hear about.  Monitor Owens and the chatter coming out of Sox camp over the net few weeks.  Competition: Brian N. Anderson and DeWayne Wise.

Rajai Davis – Oakland Athletics: Davis is quick-fast, yet built like a powder-keg.  He falls into the “not-wanna-fuck-wit” category. Davis does however have some issues, and most of those issues fall into the “baseball-skills” category.  His OPS should be better than the .643 he posted last year, but Davis should be a waiver-wire-flyer.  To make matters worse, it looks as though Ryan Sweeney may be snagging the starting center-fielder at bats.  Davis has got a shot at 40, but he needs at-bats.  Competition: Ryan Sweeney, Eric Patterson, Travis Buck — Who knows.  They’re all just keeping the seat warm for Cunningham.

San Francisco Giants Second Base Gig - This’ll be interesting. So long as Fransden doesn’t hold onto the second base gig — there will be speed. Whether it’s Velez, or Emmanuel Burriss, there’s going to be some stolen base attempts on a pretty God-Awful Giants squad.  The only way that anyone gets to 40, is a full-time gig or an injury to Renteria.  A very mediocre batting average should also be expected.

A Nice Average or OBP Means MOAR! MOAR! MOAR! Runs.

Jacoby Ellsbury – Boston Red Sox: Ellsbury isn’t going to bring a whole lot of power, but you’ll snag 5 – 10 HR from him.  The value with Ellsbury comes from his average, as last year he put up a .280 average and his minor league numbers lead all of the robots to believe he should improve on that number (Bill James: .302, CHONE: .297, Marcel: .289, Oliver: .284)

With Ellsbury batting around the .290 mark and getting on base at a .350 clip; he should be scoring a boat-load of runs. There’s no reason the potent Red Sox line-up shouldn’t be lead off with Ellsbury, Pedroia, Ortiz/Youkilis.

With that said, Ellsbury swiped 50 bags in 2008 and should be somewhere around the same mark in 2009. Assuming Pedroia has a bit of a drop-off from his MVP season of 2008; Ellsbury should be given at least the same number of opportunities to steal — if not more. Competition: Ellsbury doesn’t have any competition, but you’re more than likely going to have to overpay to get him as every draft has at least one Red Sox nut.

Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle  Mariners: Ichiro has done the same thing for as I can remember, and there’s no reason to fault him for consistently putting up 200 Hits.  Ichiro is getting older however, so it’d make sense to expect a slight down-turn in his 2009 stats.

Ichiro wont bat .372 again, let alone .351 which he did as recently has 2007. Ichiro will hit .310-.320ish and with the awfulness that is the Mariners; You can safely assume he’ll steal at least 35 Bases.  Whether or not he gets to 40 will largely depend on how much he runs, obviously.  Last year Ichiro went and stole 43 Bases while only getting caught 4 times.

Most of the prediction models have Ichiro drastically declining in the stolen base category. Ichiro doesn’t age like other players born in ’73 though, Ichiro’s a machine. Expecting 100 Runs and 50 RBIs to go with a .300+ average and 35-40 SB seems about right. Competition: Father time, and the degree of suck Seattle brings to the table.

Brian Roberts – Baltimore Orioles: Brian Roberts just re-upped for another 4 years at 10M a pop with the Baltimore Orioles. Whether or not this is good for Roberts’ fantasy value is up in the air, but it does make projecting his value quite a bit easier. Roberts has leveled off over the past couple years, and like Ichiro, it’d make sense to expect a small decline.

As the Orioles are in the stacked AL East, I’d imagine the Orioles will have anyone that can run, blazin’ the base-paths. In 2007, Roberts stole 50 bases while only getting nabbed 7 times.  Roberts followed it up with a 40SB season, with only 10 CS.  Roberts has shown he’s capable of stealing at a rate that’s productive, rather than just stealing to steal.  With that said, 40SB, 100R, 55RBI, 5-10HR, and a .280-.290 AVG.  That’s pretty solid for an aging middle infielder.

Roberts put up a career high 17% K rate last year, and when you couple that with a slight decline in walk rate — we may have a problem. However, both of these are negated by his increase in Batting Average which makes clear his intentions: Be Aggressive, Be, Be, Aggressive.  However, if he keeps up this approach his counting stats will drop off far quicker with an age induced decline in skill. Competition: Age and the AL EAST pitching.

Chone Figgins – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 2008 wasn’t a banner year for Chone and after three consecutive years of 150+ games (2004-2006 inc.), Chone has put up two straight years of 115ish games. So what should we expect from Figgins?

Bill James’ robot has Chone at 153 Games, and 60 SB attempts.  This seems a wee bit optimistic.  Using this model, Chone comes out with 43SB and 17CS to go along with 101R, 56RBI, 5HR, and a .287 AVG.  The line would obviously make Chone Figgins one of the more valuable MI/CI.

Over the past couple years of 115 Games, Figgins has improved upon his BB% and in turn, OBP. 2007′s OBP of .393 may be a smidgen optimistic, but a replication of 2008′s OBP of .367 seems about right.

The Angels’ entire line-up is an injury waiting to happen, including Figgins. If Figgins can stay healthy, he’ll find himself a place to play even if Brandon Wood cashes in on his unlimited potential. Competition: His Health, and the Health of Others.

Kaz Matsui – Houston Astros: Here we’ve got a pretty simple analysis.  Matsui is gettin’ old, he was born in ’75, and he hasn’t played more than 114G in his MLB career. With that said, Matsui went for 20 SB in 96 Games in 2008 and 32SB in 104 games in 2007 as a member of the Rockies.  Matsui doesn’t get caught, and the only thing standing in his way is health.  Competition: General Health, including but not limited to, Anal Fissures.

Josh Anderson – Atlanta Braves: If Anderson can take hold of the Braves’ starting center-fielder job, he’ll be dangerous.  In 40 Games, Anderson stole 10 bases. Anderson has stole 40 bases in the last three Minor League seasons, and he’s predicted to be at least a capable hitter for average. If Anderson can post a .285 average, he’ll be a valuable cog in the Braves outfield.

Here’s what the Robots have to say: Bill James-132G, 39SB, 10CS. CHONE-140G, 33SB, 10CS. Oliver has Anderson racking up 631 AB, which is the most of the bunch but fails to list SB numbers.  Competition: Early in the season, Blanco. Late in the season, Heyward or Schaffer.

Juan Pierre – Los Angeles Dodgers: Well it appears as though the Dodgers’ fall-back plans have signed with Washington (Dunn) and the Angels (Abreu). So if Manny Ramirez doesn’t sign, it looks like Pierre will get his guaranteed AB.  If Manny does sign, Pierre will be relegated to a time-share with Andre Ethier. Pierre can steal 40 bases even if he only gets 115 Games.  His batting average will be respectable, so he wont hurt you. Competition: Manny for ABs. Hudson and Furcal for a Run-Scoring position in the line-up.

Coco Crisp – Kansas City Royals: The Royals traded Ramon Ramirez, noted ass scratcher, to the Sox in return for Crisp.  It looks initially like both teams got what they were looking for, so world peace shall ensue. Throwing Crisp in here is a testament to the “fuck-off” factor that allows mediocre players to become superstars once they leave Big-Market squads.  No reason to believe Crisp will steal 40, but he’s definitely capable of it while posting a half-decent batting average.

Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies: Thank the Lord for Victorino’s lack-luster start last year, as it allowed me to acquire him in a whole ‘ella lot of leagues. All of the Robots have Victorinio coming in somewhere between 25 and 30SB which seems a smidgen low, as they probably factor in Victorino’s minor league numbers. In 2001, 2002, Victorino was stealing 40+ bases and then for some reason unknown to me (yes, I’m lazy); Victorino stopped stealing bases from 2003-2006.

This has clearly fooled the Robots, who are generally pretty wise. If you just forget those years happened, the Robots will probably spit out a number in the high 30′s which puts Victorino close enough to 40 to warrant consideration.  Victorino doesn’t get to 40 SB in my book, but he’ll come close. It does indeedly do look as though the Phils’ outfield is set in stone with Ibanez in left, Victorino in center, and the Genkins/Werth time-share in right. Competition: The Robots

Finally, The Guys That’ll Actually Help You (In Most Categories)

If there’s the potential for at least 15-20 HR to go along with those 40 SB, here’s the category.  Obviously most of these guys will be top-5 rounders, or top-5 picks for that matter. Unless there’s a glaring hole, I won’t explain why you need to draft Grady, Jose, or Hanley.

Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies: Rollins is coming ridiculously close to falling into the previous category, alongside Ichiro Suzuki.  However, he’s clearly shown he has the potential to kill-smash the ball. In 2006, Rollins went for 25 HR and 36 SB and 2007 brought a career season with, 30HR and 41SB.

With that said, Rollins only hit 11HR while stealing 47 Stolen bases in only 137 Games.  The Robots tend to think Rollins is going to come in with 17-18 HR with 35+ SB. Rollins consistently puts up a solid K-Rate, and a half-decent BB-Rate.  The Phils are solid, and you should expect a nice little bounce-back year from Rollins.  Competition: Health. I’m not quite ready to toss in the “Age” problem yet, even though Rollins is 30 years old.

Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays: Crawford should be able to hit 15HR in 2009, even though he’s had a downturn in power since 2006. Crawford has the potential of bringing some of the best value in your draft, or any draft. Crawford was essentially a lock for 50SB each and every year, until he went and dropped 25 SB on all of his less than pleased owners, in 2008.

The Robots expect Crawford to bounce back to the mid-to-high 30′s, but I’d assume he’d easily eclipse 40 unless something goes wrong. Crawford also comes in as a very consistent .300 hitter, that’ll help you not just in Runs but RBI as well in an ever improving Rays’ line-up. Competition: Health, and Plate Approach.

Jose Reyes – New York Mets: After 60 in ’05, 64 in ’06, and then 78 in ’07, it made sense to expect Reyes to go for 56 SB in 2008. Reyes however, should have developed more than 16HR power by now.  He came in and everyone looked at him and figured upon 20HR power, yet he hasn’t quite closed in on that number.

Reyes may need to sacrafice some speed to get past that magical 20HR mark, but almost any fantasy owner would be happy with 45 SB, and 22-23HR over 55SB and 14HR.

There’s no reason to expect anything but a full, healthy, and productive 2009 from Jose Reyes.  Competition: Your expectations, and Random Injuries.

B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays: After 24 HR, and 22 SB in only 129 Games in 2007 greatness was expected from Mr. Upton.  Greatness was achieved, but it involved a massive decrease in power, and a massive increase in “speed”.

It’d be wise to assume that Upton will level off, and he’ll spit out the average of the previous two seasons:  18-20HR and 35-40SB seems about right. Upton was a sure-fire first round pick if he ever managed to figure out second base, but now it looks like he’s just a very good player at a very deep outfield position.

Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians: Sizemore is about as safe as you can get in a first round pick.  Most fantasy hounds are delighted with the 30HR power, and are willing to sacrafice the 15-20pt drop in batting average. Realistically, the 38 SB will probably decline rather than bounce up to the magical, mystical, 40SB mark but everything else is a beaut.  Expect round about 100RBI, 100R, 25-30HR, 30-35SB, and a .275 AVG. Competition: Your Draft Position.

Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins: After posting 51SB in his first two big-league seasons, Ramirez decided that he wanted to add 33HR power to his repertoire. Realistically, I’d bank on a decrease in power and a return to the 45-50SB area.  Ramirez’s production will depend on how the rest of the line-up fairs.  If guys get on base, Ramirez will mash. If something goes wrong, Hanley will steal.  Quite Simply: The production will be there, but whether or not the crazy-value comes from SB or HR is still up in the air.

Too Many Variables, Not Enough DATA! The Youngings

Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins: Not often do you see so much discussion on a top-prospect. People either love Maybin or hate everything that he stands for. The people who love Cameron Maybin are the “eyeball test” folk who believe you can judge a baseball player by watching him play.  The people who aren’t all that fond of Cameron Maybin are the stats geeks.  By no means do the stats-geeks think Maybin can’t contribute at the Major League level, they just take issue with the “next great player / five tool player” tag that follows Maybin wherever he goes. Normally when Florida wants a prospect however, he ends up being pretty darn solid.

With that said, I’m not sure what category Cameron Maybin will fall into.  His batting average may hurt you, and he could easily end up posting Carlos Gomez type numbers. There’s a great article here, which pretty much expresses how everyone with a clue feels about Maybin. Maybin does have solid power potential, which could easily develop into great power potential considering his position.

Maybin could end up being a top-50 player this year, if all goes well — real well.  Florida’s got a solid staff, but their offense is going to be iffy.  They’d be better suited having a guy who can get on-base ahead of the boom-or-bust squad that is Cantu, Uggla, McPherson, and Ross.

Competition: The Minors and AVG.

Elvis Andrus – Texas Rangers: Whoa, Nelly. I like Andrus quite a bit this year, and if you can understand what you’re getting from him — he’ll be a steal.  The one thing you’re guaranteed is speed, please understand that. Everything after stolen bases is just gravy, and expecting more from him could land you in hot water.

With that said, Andrus could realistically bat .275 and force his way to the top of the Rangers line-up which would make him into an AVG, R, and SB player.

Now for the problems: He doesn’t walk enough, and he strikes out to much.  Asking him to bat in the top half of the order is asking a lot.  He has very little power to speak of, but should eventually grow into some.

Back to the Good-ness: Andrus, with a full-time gig, could steal 50-something bases.

Competition: Maturity as a hitter.

Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates: I’m not buying it yet, but he looks to at least have one of the outfield spots on lock-down.  He hasn’t stole 40 in the minors, but came close enough last year, posting 34 SB in 512 PA for the Pirates triple-A club.

Just a name to keep in mind…

Alcides Escobar – Milwaukee Brewers: Hrm. Maybe the Brewers can find a way to work Escobar into the mix, as right now he’s stuck behind Rickie Weeks and the J-iest of Hardys. If they could move Hardy to third, and take Bill Hall out back behind the woodshed, we’d be set.

Escobar stole 34 bags in 131 Games for the Brewers triple-a affiliate last year, so if he plays all year (he won’t) he could easily break the magical 40SB mark.

…just another guy to keep an eye on. Hopefully if I talk about putting Bill Hall out of his misery often enough, he’ll just….give up.

I’m not buying 40SB, But In Case You Do…

Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers: Joe Torre let him run, and there’s no reason to believe he’ll be throttled this year. Everyone’s favourite sleeper this side of Josh Hamilton last year; Kemp exhibited some traits that don’t bode well for a repeat. 7% BB Rate is worrisome by itself, but when combined with his strike-out rate of 25% — We’ve got a problem.  Kemp’s .363 BABIP is also curious but if the Robots are willing to believe Kemp can maintain it, I’ll buy it. I’m sure his 23% line drive rate has something to do with it.

So, why don’t I think Kemp will hit 40 after posting 35 in his first full season? It’s the economy, stupid.  Wait, no.  It has everything to do with his power numbers, though.  Kemp should easily develop into a 30 HR threat as soon as this year, but it’ll largely depend upon his plate approach.  This is a firm view I have, and it has very little to do with data or statistics, but everything to do with common sense.

If a player is ever described as a ridiculous athlete, he gets to choose whether he hits home runs or steals bases. Of course, there is a very small minority that can post a 30/30 and Kemp may well be one of these guys. Realistically, it makes more sense to look at Kemp as a 25/25 threat for the next five years rather than an 18HR/40SB threat.

Alex Rios – Toronto Blue Jays: Cito Gaston will not have it.  As regular visitor of the Rogers Centre, I’d like to see Rios up the power and dial-down the speed.  Of course if the Jays stink up the joint, which they surely will; There’s no reason to think that any Jay who wants to run will be prohibited from doing so.  I think last year was Rios’ ceiling, stolen-base wise.  A more realistic projection for 2009, would be about the 22-26SB range.

Rafael Furcal – Los Angeles Dodgers: I don’t even need to read this article, as the headline surely expresses every concern you could possibly have, “Can Rafael Furcal Overcome Injuries?“. Last time Raffy played a whole season, he stole 37 bases; The season before that he stole 46 Bases.

Proof Enough for Me!

Last year in limited action, Raffy was still running — stealing 8 bases in 36 games, or 164 PA which is about a fifth of the season. So, 40 is a possibility. Bam!

Proof Enough for Me!

An Outside Shot — Like Real Outside

Felipe Lopez and Eric Byrnes of Youuuurrrrrrrrr Arizona Diamondbacks: Lopez stole 44 bases in 2006 and before Byrnes was the “cool guy” on Fox’s baseball telecast he stole 50 in 2007.

Alfonso Soriano – Chicago Cubs: Remember when Soriano went 40-40 for the Nationals? Or went 35-35, two years in a row as a young Yankee? As a member of the Chicago Cubs, Soriano has almost stolen 40 bases. The problem is, it’s been 19 SB each year or 38 SB in 244 Games.

It could happen though…

Felipe Lopez

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers By Team

Fantasy Baseball has its share of guys drafted in the late rounds, or picked up for a dollar that really pan out.  You’re generally not going to get anyone who absolutely kills it for a buck, or in the last round, unless you’re in a 10-12 team default league.  But here are some guy’s that’ll fill in nicely.

Minor Leaguers / Hot Prospects will have their own list, so they are excluded from this one.

Position Players

Anaheim Angels

Kendry Morales (1b) came over from Cuba in 2005 with a boatload of hype, and then proceeded to become spectacularly average.  The Fantasy World was abuzz just a few years ago about the Angels’ corner infielders, Dallas McPherson and Kendry Morales.  Then, they just stopped maturing, and when called up couldn’t produce.  None the less, Morales has had an incredible winterball season and obviously the talent is there.  Power hitting first basemen aren’t going to be gotten for a buck, but he’ll be cheaper come draft day.  Hopefully the Angels stay with Morales and resist the temptation to sign a first baseman.  Morales will produce and 25HR, 85RBI, 75R, and a .270 AVG seems reasonable.

Houston Astros

J.R. Towles (C) came into last year as the second hot catching prospect behind Soto. While Soto excelled as a major league backstop, Towles really shit the bed.  It Wouldn’t be out of the question to see Towles hit 15-20 HR, and Bill James has him hitting 17HR. Keep an eye on the starting Catcher’s job as Toby Hall was recently brought in to clean up the mess if Towles struggled.

Oakland Athletics

There’s going to be some value here, the problem is there are a lot of players around the same talent level fighting for jobs.

Ryan Sweeney (CF) wins the starting CF job, and has the possibility of going 15HR, 15SB.

Travis Buck (RF) has a tonne of talent, and flopped horribly last year.  He’s a top-tier young player that should develop power to go along with his solid batting eye.  As with all the stupid Athletics — Buck walks a lot and strikes out more.

Eric Patterson’s (OF /2B) AAA averages of .300+ have not translated well to the big leagues.  The Athletics acquired Patterson in the Harden deal, and will eventually end up with a solid player.  He’s got speed and, above all, second base eligibility.  If the Athletics can find a place for Patterson, he’ll be worth the dollar or two you’ll have to spend on him. His MLB strike-out rate isn’t a pretty sight though, so lets just hope he can drop it below 20%.

Daric Barton (1B) is yet another On Base Machine in the Oakland Athletics system.  He hit .347 in 84 PA in 2007, and then proceeded to stink up the joint (AAA and MLB) in 2008. Barton should have the inside gig on the first base job, with Jason Giambi as the DH.  If he continues to stink it up though; Giambi will move to first with Cust to DH which opens up the outfield for the two names above (Patterson or Buck).

Toronto Blue Jays

Travis Snider (OF / 1B) probably wont come as cheap as I’d like, but he should put up a solid rookie/sophmore season.  He came up for a cup of coffee in 2008, and impressed.  Generally listed among everyones top 10 MLB prospects, Snider is only 21 and has flown through the Jays system.  In limited action in 2008, he hit .300 with a couple dingers. There’s always the possibility the Jays start Snider off in the minors and keep him there for a good chunk, to save cash in the long run.  If Snider can keep ahold of the starting gig for the entire season, 20 HR aren’t out of the question.

While Snider may have more future potential, Adam Lind (OF) looks primed for a solid and productive 2009 campaign.  The Jays babied Lind quite a bit as he was coming through the system, and many Jays fans wanted Lind to stick with the big club a year earlier than he did.  Adam Lind has a realistic shot of hitting between .290 and .305 and, while his power numbers are sick-awesome, he should get to 20-25 HR on the season.  Lind brings incredible value to the table, and should be cheap come draft day.

Atlanta Braves

Josh Anderson(CF) will find a place to play in 2009, he’s gots-ta.  Anderson has quick-fast feet and should steal plenty of bases, cheaply.  He’ll hopefully get on-base somewhere between 33-35 percent of the time and could steal 35-40 bases this year if given the chance. Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones sit ahead of him, both of which have hopes and dreams of their own.  Anderson should be able to snake the starting CF job away from Blanco.  Anderson’s one of my favourites going into the season.

Martin Prado (UTIL) is a second baseman by trade, but has filled in for Chipper Jones and will continue to fill in at third whenever Jones goes down.  While Prado doesn’t have a starting gig, he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.  His .320 batting average last year was a result of a silly-stupid .360 BABIP but he appears to be a legitimate .290 – .300 hitter with not much else.  He gets on base, and has a good LD%.

Casey Kotchman will outperform his value, but by no means is he a sleeper.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bill Hall (3B) hit 290 in 2005, and everything was looking up. Then his strike out rates went as follows, presented with the corresponding averages: 2005 20 K%, .291  AVG, 2006 30 K%, .270 AVG, 2007 28 K%, .254 AVG, 2008 31 K%, .225 AVG.  To expect things from Hall is nutty, but if he can just manage to keep that bloody K percentage down to even 23-25%, he’ll be useful.

Anyone know if Alcides Escobar can play a solid third-base?

St. Louis Cardinals

Khalil Greene (SS). I like Greene this year, and I’m crazy for it.  It’s one of those doesn’t make sense gut feelings, that will either win you or lose you a fantasy league. Maybe he hits .260 and pulls his typical week with 5 HR, 4 Weeks with 0 HR type season.

David Freese (3B) went from three years of high and low A ball with the Padres to killing in triple A with the Cardinals.  Something smells fishy, but he’s listed as the guy behind Glaus.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Fontenot (2B) is the closest thing to a sleeper on this team, and who knows if he’ll out-perform his value.  He deserves to start over Aaron Miles, but weird shit happens in the windy city.  Keep an eye on this little situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Felipe Lopez (2B) will be filling the void at second left by Orlando Hudson, the O-Dog. I’m pretty high on Lopez, but he’s got some attitude issues.  Lopez probably makes my list of top 10 sleepers going into 2009. He should get down to business and put up some incredibly solid numbers.  He’s capable of batting .290 and stealing 30 or more bases, which cant be said for the other guys Melvin might think of batting atop the order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lopez occupy the 1 or 2 hole, and reap the rewards of a solid Arizona Diamondbacks line-up.

Lopez played 13 G at SS, 13 G at 3B, 17 G in the OF, and 101 at 2B.  Check your league settings because Lopez could be the ultimate fill-in.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Do the Dodgers get a deal done for Manny Ramirez?  If not Juan Pierre (OF) might become a bit more attractive with his huge contract floating around. However, Pierre’s name may add a couple bucks to his actual price tag, which you might care to avoid. 40 SB from someone who wont kill your batting average is always nice though.

Blake DeWitt (2B / 3B) has the inside line on the second base job over Mark Loretta.  He doesn’t bring anything particularly sexy to the table, but the kid can play.  The second and third eligibility helps.  All and all nothing overwhelming in Dodger-land.

San Francisco Giants

Lots of Fun in Giants camp! Pablo Sandoval (3B, 1B, C) is everyones favorite sleeper for the entirty of Fantasy Baseball for 2009.  He’s not a sleeper anymore, but the kid can play and did play 11 games at Catcher, 12 at third base, and 17 at first.  It looks like he’ll be playing third this year, but check your league settings.  Nothing is more annoying than finding out someone isn’t eligible for a position.  If he’s eligible for catcher in your league, snatch him the hell up.

Emmanuel Burriss (SS / 2B) should win the job over Kelly Frandsen, maybe.  Along with Burriss, Eugenio Velez (2B) has a shot of snagging that opening.  Velez will bring you ridiculous SB, and could be solid but is going to have issues matching Burriss defensively.  It’ll be itneresting to see how this plays out, as both Burriss and Velez should be able to get you a bunch of SB, assuming they win the job.

Cleveland Indians

Matt Laporta (OF / 1B) will go with the rookie rankings but hopefully he plays this year for the big club.

The Indians have quite a few guys with room for improvement and maturity, yet none of them really classify as sleepers. Shin-Soo Choo (OF / RF) looks darn good and had quite the season in just under 100 games for the tribe last year. The .309 BA is nice, but the .373 BABIP is ridiculous. His Line Drive percentage is nice and pretty above 20%, but .373 is ridiculous.  He got lucky, but he can still go and hit 20+ HR for the tribe this year, and he does still have some speed in the tank (enough for 10SB? Maybe)

Keep an eye on Ben Francisco as well, the other corner outfielder.

The Entire Indians Infield (DeRosa, Cabrera, Peralta, and Garko) have the ability to eclipse their dollar value / draft round, in 2009.  Not sleepers, but worth a look. I’m especially high on Cabrera and Garko, as the other two have gotten their fair share of pre-season hype.

Seattle Mariners

What a waste-land.  I’m not a fan of the Mariners, at all. Everytime they come to Toronto, hoards of japanese people come out and scream their faces off at Kenji Johjima and Ichiro Suzuki.  They’re like rockstars, and the 16-22 year old Japanese girls that scream for them act like their white peers at an All American Rejects concert.

Jeff Clement (C) isn’t a sleeper, but he should outperform his draft stock.

Florida Marlins

Much better, the Florida Marlins have some sleepers. Jeremy Hermida (RF) has all the tools to be great, not just good — but GREAT.  Most fantasy owners get pissed off when they read about sleepers for a couple years, and they just never pan out. Hermida falls into this group, the post hype sleeper group. 2008′s 28 percent strike-out rate is a weeeeeeeee bit concerning, but sometimes you just gotta trust your eyes and go with that sweet sweet swing.

Cameron Maybin (OF) should be good, not quite yet though — He’ll be hanging out with LaPorta in the “rookies who can make a difference” room.

John Baker (C), Oh how I like thee.  His outlook looks good, and he’ll be great value in the last round or two of your draft — If he flops, which he could well do, just cut bait.  Otherwise, I’m fixin’ on predictin’ 350-400 AB to go with 15 HR

Dallas McPherson (3B) should be good but the hype machine is starting it’s engines, and with the ridiculous amount of homers he’s put up in the Minors the past couple years — the experts are remembering just how much they LOVED McPherson 5 years ago.

New York Mets

The Mets’ outfield other than Beltran looks to have a good bit of talent floating around it. I’m generally against listing sleepers from big market teams, as ESPN tends to showcase the hell out of them but Ryan Church (OF) has been solid, but not spectacular for sometime now, and other than a broken brain looks good. With Church, you might get 20 HR, a handful of steals, and a guarenteed .275 average.  He’s quite serviceable in deeper leagues. The 20-25% K rate is concerning, but if he’s adding power while doing it — I’ll take it.

Daniel Murphy (OF / 2B? / 3b?) could make a big impact in fantasy circles this year. His .386 BABIP last year inflated his stats, but he’s still only 24 years old. Murphy can play just about anywhere, but will start the season qualifying only as an OF.  There’s a chance with the right set of circumstances that he snags eligibility at 2B and/or 3B.  If he comes out of camp as the starting second baseman, he’s value is going to be solid as all hell. His LD rate was a stupid-silly 33 percent last year, which makes that .386 BABIP not so ridiculous and while his K rate was 20+ percent last year — he should drop it down below 20 (if minor league stats have any influence whatsoever on MLB stats). If Murphy can steal 10 bases, which he’s more than capable of, he’ll be useful in all but the most shallow of leagues. If you consider him a sleeper, Murphy is top 5.

Jeremy Reed (OF) came over from Seattle, and the talent’s there.  He hasn’t managed to put it together, and his top-prospect status is long gone. Maybe he’ll react well to being out of Seattle and begin putting up the numbers once expected of him.

Washington Nationals

Their outfield is stacked with former top prospects, absolutely stacked.  I’m not sure if it’ll ever gell considering the attitude that’s out there but:

Lastings Milledge (OF) was the chosen one in the Mets farm system for a few years before coming over to the Nats.  As with all New York prospects, the great ones are blown up way too big, and the smaller ones get lost in the shadows to become great players. Milledge does have the talent though, as he can easily steal 25 bases to go along with his developing power.  Last Years 14 HR season should be improved upon, actually all of his numbers should be improved upon. If he can keep his LD rate above 20, and his K rate below it — he could outperform the massive hype surrounding him..lets hope.  He’s not a one dollar sleeper, and you’ll have to pay to get him but the potential is there.

Elijah Dukes (RF / OF) has more power than Milledge, but also has more issues.  If Dukes has 15 wives and each wife has 2 children, and each child has 3 Daddies,  how many children is Dukes really the father of? Dukes has all the talent in the world and if everything goes well he could smash his draft day value. Read this carefully: Elijah Dukes could reasonably go 30HR and 30SB, with a .275BA given he reaches about 600PA.

Josh Willingham (LF / OF) could get to 25 HR pretty easily, but keep in mind his BA isn’t pretty and he strikes out a hella-lot.

Jesus Flores (C) could be one to keep an eye on, but he’s not particularly a sleeper.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore and Mike Flanagan are doing a terrific job building their organization the right way — by fleecing other teams of their young talent.

Matt Weiters (C) cannot possibly be considered a sleeper, and he’ll join Laporta, Maybin, and Escobar in the Rookie Category.

Even Adam Jones (CF / OF), one of the nicest guys in baseball, isn’t particularly a sleeper.  He’ll improve upon his numbers of last year, and he’s a super prospect but you’ll probably have to pay some cash money to get him.  Jones has 20 HR pop in his bat as soon as this year, and on a team that loves to just go out and have fun — he should be fun to watch.  Throw in 10-15SB, and you’ve got yourself a ballplayer.

Felix Pie (LF / OF) will more than likely be a second half sleeper.  It may be worth it to draft him, but I’d wait a few months before grabbing him.  If your league is shallow, feel free to grab the speedy young OF whom the Cubs gave the Orioles for essentially nothing.  If he’s allowed to run free, expect a cheap source of stolen bases.

San Diego Padres

I’m not sure where I stand on Chase Headley (OF / 3B?). The Kid has all of the talent in the world, but is it too soon? Chase strikes out too damn much, 31.4% K Rate! but when he does hit the ball he’s a line-drive machine, 25% LD! The Homers aren’t there, but he’ll grow into it eventually — He’s a sleeper, but not one i’d like to have on my team unless I’ve got balls of steel. If Kouzmanoff gets hurt and Headley can move to third, we’ve got a whole new ball-game.

Edgar Gonzalez (2B) might be worth a look if not for that pesky David Eckstein.

Philadelphia Phillies

World Champs don’t produce sleepers.

Raul Ibanez (OF) might be worth a long, long, look though.  He’s no world champ — but he is a .290 hitter with power, who’s numbers have been skewed by Seattle’s awful ballpark.

Who know’s how he’ll adjust to NL pitching after 10 years in the AL, but he’s worth a very very long look.  He wont come for a buck, but i bet he outperforms his cost by at least 3 to 5 dollars.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Rookie Outfielders Andrew McCutchen (OF), Steve Pearce(OF), Jose Tabata(OF) could all make a difference in your fantasy league this year depending on its size.  They’re getting hucked into the Rookie category. I was thinking of putting Pearce here, but it’s easier to put him with the other two star prospects.

Really only Andy LaRoche (3B) sticks out as someone I’d genuinely like to have on my roster.  While Freddy Sanchez (2B) could put up a solid batting average, he’s too hit or miss.

Andy’s brother Adam LaRoche (1B) is primed for a breakout year but is in no way a sleeper.

Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus (SS) can boogey, and he’s won the starting shortstop gig. The Rangers were wise to sign Omar Vizquel (SS) just incase.  Andrus gets thrown in with the other rookies later, to a lesser extent.

Anyone in the Texas Line-Up should produce solid numbers, as Arlington is a  bloody Band-Box.

Take David Murphy (OF) if he takes the LF job, and all signs point to yessir — he’ll put up stellar numbers.

Chris Davis (1B / 3B) lost his position as a sleeper the day he was born, so please dont ask.

Tampa Bay Rays

I cant seem to find a sleeper here; eveyrone on their squad should probably perform up to par. Ben Zobrist (OF / SS) qualifies at shortstop and could well snag the right field job, but I still woulnd’t count on that many AB. His power seemingly came out of nowhere and with a 13% LD rate and a corresponding .255 BABIP, things dont look particularly solid moving forward. He’s got a solid walk rate (13%) which negates most of his 20% strike-out rate.  Hrmm, it’s interesting.

Matt Joyce (OF) who’s penciled in ahead of Zobrist at RF could provide you with solid power numbers to go with a beautifully awesome .260 AVG. Joyce strikes out about a quarter to a third of the time, but he’s a true masher. Against righties Joyce should put up solid numbers, and maybe your league undervalues him.

If you can get Joyce on the cheap, you’ll be incredibly happy as he’ll put up great numbers.  Just dont over-pay, mind you — what is overpaying for 30HR in 500 AB?

Keep his name on your cheat sheet and snag him if the time is right.

Boston Red Sox

There’s no sleepers on this team, who are we kidding. If Ortiz gets dead, Rocco Baldelli (OF / DH) should put up solid numbers.

Cincinatti Reds

Jay Bruce (OF) is a sleeper, sort of — I tend to think he’ll be overvalued come draft day but there’s no way to dismiss his raw talent.  He’ll be thrown in with the rookies as he compares best to them.

I like Jerry Hairston Jr (OF / SS) to be a solid source of steals for your middle infield, assuming he can hold off newly arrived masher Johnny Gomes (OF). If Gomes can get himself 350 AB, he seems to hit 20HR.  If he can land a full time gig, expect those numbers to go up in the Great American Bandbox. Striking out 30% of the time isn’t optimal, but if the HR come with it — The Reds will take it.

The whole Reds’ team should play well, with Encarnacion putting up a few more dollars than he’s worth along with Brandon Phillips.  There’s no reason to not take a Red this year.

Colorado Rockies

You’ve gotta take anyone with talent pretty serious in Colorado.

Ian Stewart (2b? / 3b?) has entered the hype machine and as of January, Garrett Atkins is in LF?? Stewart’s not a sleeper, but he should produce and strike out given playing time.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF) the 243 tooled player acquired in the Holliday deal should rake given the chance.  I have him in my top 5 sleepers.  The man swings at everything, in the zone or outside of it and he strikes out too damn much but whatever.

Sometimes swinging at everything works — oh wait, you have to make contact when you swing at everything? Shit.  Gonzalez is still in my top 5.

Kansas City Royals

Mark Teahen (OF / 2B) is a solid player, and a half decent corner outfielder.  He is not a Second Basemen, but if the Royals switch him to second base as the rumours indicate — he may well be useful. Optimally, Teahan would gain second base eligibility and then return to the outfield but we’ll see. Teahan had a down year last year, and he’s still striking out at a 23% clip — so buyer beware.

Big Fat Billy Butler (1B / DH) and Kila Ka’Ailhue (1B / DH) along with Mike Jacobs (1B) should all see time.  Butler was everyones favourite sleeper last year, and Jacobs can just straight up mash. 25 to 30 homers seems about right for Jacobs, considering all things — but you’ll lose out on the counting stats. Ka’Ailhue should be interesting — i’m not sure if he’s a sleeper at this point or not, but boy can he hit.

Ka’Ailhue would have been a huge addition to any team if not for the Mike Jacobs trade, and maybe he’ll still contribute to a lesser extent. Maybe the youngster can sit down with Jacobs and explain to him why it’s beneficial to Walk almost as much, if not more, than you strike out.  Everything is there except playing time.

Alberto Collaspo (2B) just as a side note, i really like Alberto Collapso and whenever playing Baseball Mogul 2007? I made sure to add him to my team — he always got good around 2009.  Computers rule!

Detroit Tigers

Nothing seems to pop out about the Tigers. Maybe Gerald Laird (C) away from Texas? No thanks. Nice line-up though.

Minnesota Twins

Alexi Casilla (2B) isn’t a sleeper but should put up solid stats. If people start snoozing on Delmon Young (OF), this might be the year.  I’d be more than willing to take a risk on Young, banking that he finally put stuff together in his head.  Young’s got all the talent in the world but like so many of these uber-talented top-prospects, maybe his work ethic isn’t quite there.  I’m not going to predict 20 HR for Young, but you should know incredibly early in the season whether or not he’s going to continue grounding balls harmlessly into the outfield.

Nick Puntu (UTIL / Everywhere) should also contribute.

Chicago White Sox

Should be interesting.  Josh Fields (3B) can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown he can hit, yet. If Jerry Owens (OF) takes the CF job he should be a huge source of steals and more than likely Runs — if he can get on base at a decent clip.

I’m a big fan of super utility man Wilson Betemit (1B/3B/14G @ SS) but whether or not he gets playing time is a different story. His strike out rate is an ugly 25%, but I’d still give him a chance.

New York Yankees

Welcome to the hype-machine. Robinson Cano (2B) will bounce back but the only real sleeper here is Nick Swisher (1B / OF), who could well be dealt.

Swisher hit .219 last year, which is awful. Swisher generally doesn’t hit that well, and expecting more than .260 is goofy but boy does he walk. Expect a nice little return to the .375 range for Swishers OBP, and he’ll regain his .840 OPS form.

Swisher was apparently one of the most unlucky players in 2008, and many are predicting a rebound.

Very rarely do you see a players LD rate go up, while his BABIP dips 50 pts. If Swisher can find a way to get full time playing time, he’s a top 5 sleeper. I just don’t know how he does that in a crowded Yankees outfield — mind you, it’s a crowded AGING Yankees outfield.