The sky is the limit with this guy, but the basement is not that pretty. We’re talking serial killer-type basement, with limbs in the freezer and Detroit Lions games  on a constant loop. We’re talking Wily Mo Pena + Juan Encarnacion + A Bit More Defense. 30% K-rate, and 5%-BB rate type basement.

Last year Baseball Prospectus came in with Carlos Gonzalez at 26th overall, while Baseball America had him at 22nd overall.  CarGo is a great player, but that strike-out rate and swing-rate are potential deal-breakers. Whether or not these two things are tied to skill level or just the lack of desire to improve is up for debate.

As I mentioned in the Dexter Fowler article, the Rockies outfield is crowded.  Right now, it looks like the left-field job is a toss up between Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith. While Gonzalez has more upside, it looks like S. Smith is more MLB-ready which I’ll get into in the next article.

Carlos Gonzalez: Statistically Speaking

So the table isn’t particularly beautiful, but it is courtesy of fangraphs.com. Open Office was unstoppable in converting 5% to .050, but it’s 9am on a Saturday so we’ll wage that war at a later point in time.

The Strike-Out Rate stands out, as Gonzalez constantly puts up about 25%. It’s somewhat comical that whenever there’s a small sample size warning, Gonzalez has cut down on his K-Rate. His walk rate is atrocious for someone who strikes out that much.

We’ve almost got all of the bad out of the way:  Carlos Gonzalez swings at everything, absolutely everything.  Dave Cameron over at fangraphs put together an analysis of Cargo and his absolutely ridiculous Swing Rate, and O-Swing Rate (how often does he swing at pitches outside the zone). I really can’t praise the gentlemen over at fangraphs enough for putting together smart analysis and putting together the stats in an easily readable package.

Carlos Gonzalez in the Venezuelan Winter League: A New Hope

Carlos Gonzalez Regular Season VWL numbers:

MLB LINK

The 21 strike-outs in 100 PA, seems about in-line with Gonzalez’s regular numbers but an 11% BB rate is a nice improvement.  When you follow it up with his playoff numbers, we might just be on to something.

Gonzalez’s Venezuelan WL Playoff Numbers

MLB LINK

Of course there is the requisite small sample size warning, but he walked 11 times in 14 games. Maybe Carlos is starting to come due, and understand the game?

Opportunity and Final Analysis

The Rockies starting left-fielder job is about an open a competition as there is. Currently Gonzalez is listed as the starting left-fielder, but other than Brad Hawpe in RF no-one’s assured a job. (CBS seems to have the most-updated Depth Charts, why? no-one knows)

Gonzalez could hold onto the job with a strong camp, but Major League Ready Seth Smith could also nab the job.  Matt Murton was once listed as one of the Cubs’ better prospects, so technically he’s also got a shot at the job.  If Dexter Fowler breaks camp with the starting CF job, there’s a chance that Clint Hurdle could even move Ryan Spillbroghs over to left. If Spillbroghs ends up in CF, Scott Podsednik may steal the LF job as the Rockies desperately need a lead-off hitter.

There’s probably a few more possibilities, but for the most part — those are the more likely scenarios.

I have Gonzalez listed as a top-100 OF, as odds are that he’ll break camp with the job.  We all know how hitter-friendly Coors Field is, and Gonzalez has pop.  Even if Gonzalez can get his BB-Rate up to 8 or 9 percent, it’ll make a 20 percent K-Rate more palatable.

Gonzalez has about a 75 percent chance of breaking camp with the job, and I’d imagine he’d bottom out at about 350AB.  The Rockies should be looking to shop one of their young outfielders, or veterans as the depth is nutty.

Carlos Gonzalez has the opportunity to put up top-30 OF numbers if everything goes well, but a more realistic goal is top-50.

Gonzalez is one of my favourite sleepers going into 2009, but the bust potential is massive.

If you buy Cargo’s hype, then you better have a back-up plan or at least have suitable replacements on the waiver-wire.  He could be a very nice late round gamble though as there are very few players that you can nab in the very late rounds that have the potential to put up early mid-round numbers. Most of them have already been through the ringer more than a few times and everyone in your fantasy league will know their name.

If you’re in a keeper league, regardless of Gonzalez’s Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ratings, he’s far from a sure thing.  The risk and reward is exponentially increased when you’re dealing with Gonzalez in a dynasty-type league. Devaluing Gonzalez in a dynasty league is probably a wise move as there are safer “top prospects”.

Photo Provided By Kimberly* Flickr

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The Dallas Morning News summed it up pretty well:

Jones, a 13-year veteran who turns 32 in April, is another low-risk, high-reward signing by the Rangers. Overweight last season, Jones hit only .158 with three home runs for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he had knee surgery in May.

But Jones has lost weight, perhaps as much as 25 pounds, and the Rangers hope that Jaramillo can help him find the powerful stroke that produced at least 25 homers for 10 consecutive seasons from 1998 to 2007.

My favourite part by far, must be the Dodgers getting half of his cheddar:

Just found out that the Dodgers get HALF of whatever he makes with the Rangers. So, if he maxes out on his incentives and receive a total salary of $1.5 million from Texas in 2009, the Dodgers will get $750,000 of that, meaning they would owe him about $2.76 million instead of the $3.5 million they owe him now.

kla4067 flickr

Anyways, from a fantasy perspective this is interesting and you should keep an eye on this little situation.

Maybe you’re not drafting Andruw Jones but as I type this, David Murphy and Nelson Cruz are too very solid options for your third-OF position.

Obviously, the Texas Rangers would prefer to put Josh Hamilton into a less strenuous position than CF.  You want to leave enough gas in the tank come September, and Hamilton is bound to suffer playing CF all season.

With that said, it may be Hank Blalock who’s currently occupying the DH spot that feels the burn. Currently, I figure Murphy and Cruz are about equal production-wise and should get AB regardless of the situation. However, one of them should fail.  Texas gets lucky, but lucky enough to turn those two into fully productive corner-outfielders is pretty lucky.  One’s bound to be average, with the other increasing production and registering an above-average season.

Now Onto Andruw Jones:

I’m willing to wager a Taco-Bell half pound beef and bean burrito that Andruw Jones was on the Juice, Steroids, PED, HGH, or whatever and decided last year that it was about time to hit the kill switch.

Enter the Fatty-Era.

Jones does have a boatload of natural talent, and he is the ball-player that used to knock out 25-30HR regularly as a skinny little 20-something year old kid.

Jones has had a full-year steroid free to get his shit together. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Jones return to the fleet-footed center-fielder of old.

Of course if that doesn’t work, Andruw Jones could go back on the juice and make all of his fantasy owners happy.  In fantasy, the more numbers someone puts up, the better.  While you don’t want to waste an early rounder on a steroid monkey because he’ll end up tearing his ligaments to shreds, a late round flier is a great idea.

Is Jones worth a last round pick in your draft?

Absolutely, positively.  He could end up with 30HR in a very hitter friendly ball-park.

If he continues the suck, you can drop him and odds are you’ll be able to pick up a stop-gap until an idiot owner drops Cameron Maybin after a terrible first month.

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Refusing to “LOSE” a trade.  All but one guy loses the league every year, but no one wants  to lose a trade.  This is why the majority of leagues really don’t have that much action aside from the waiver-wire.

An Example: The stage is set for a monster trade, you need steals and he needs home-runs.  You have depth at first, and he has depth at short.  For simplicities sake, you have Albert Pujols and he has Hanley Ramirez.  No Injuries, nothing. It’s a perfect trade, that just doesn’t get done.

Why? Both owners are terrified that once they trade away their player, he’ll get hot and they’ll look like an idiot.

This is a problem in pretty much every league, and gets magnified when the conditions aren’t as perfect as mentioned above. Once you start throwing variables like age, injury risk, pitching/hitting, into the mix — the trade is bound to fail.

Solution: Lose the Trade.

First off, this only really applies to stubborn leagues.  Float some trades out there and if you can win the trade, go ahead and do so.  If after a couple of weeks you’re still plowing through details, go ahead and lose the trade. Everyone wants a grand-theft roto, so give it to ‘em.

Caveat 1: Only do this with teams that can’t beat you. Even if they’re ahead of you in the standings, give ‘em an honest look and figure out if they can realistically beat you over the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

Caveat 2: By losing the trade, you’re putting more value into the hands of your trading partner.  It’s generally best to lose a trade right at the trading deadline so he can’t go and peddle his new-found value off to another owner, an owner that CAN beat you.

If you’re trading before the Deadline, make sure he’s one stubborn son-of-a-bitch.  Make sure that once you give him this hidden value, that he’ll demand MORE value from anyone he trades with.  It’s easy to tell who the stubborn ones are as even the perfectly rational trades get shot-down.

So Why Am I Giving Up More Than I’m Getting?

Because you need it, or you want it. If you’ve managed to draft the perfectly balanced team, and pick up a few complimentary pieces from the waiver-wire, good on yah. Otherwise, you’re going to have some holes to fill.

Generally by the trading dead-line, you know where you stand in each of the categories. The plan is to trade away depth, and turn those 4-pointers into 7-pointers while only losing 1 point off your league leading 12-pts in HR. In Head to Head terms, win HR by 4 each week instead of 8 while giving yourself a 50/50 shot of winning the steals category.

Examine The Waiver Wire:

The best way to lose a trade, is to give up two players for one.  I’m not talking typical fantasy strategy where you trade two lesser players for a superstar. That’s probably not going to work unless you’re playing with idiots. What I’m saying is to trade a player of equal value, and then go ahead and toss in another player.

Eg. I’ll trade you Pujols for Ramirez, and I’ll throw in Player X.

Ideally, you’re going to want to have an immediate waiver-wire pick-up in mind when you throw in player X.  Obviously, Player X has to be “better” than the player the other team is dropping and presumably better than anyone he can find on the waiver wire.  When you lose a trade, you obviously want to lose it by as little as possible to still get the deal done.

What I’ve found, is that Player X doesn’t always have to be “better” than the players on the waiver wire Player X just has to be safer, or more consistant.  Sometimes you end up winning the trade because the high-risk player you snagged off the waiver-wire ends up panning out.  If he doesn’t, you wash, rinse, and repeat and just keep picking up filler until one pans out.

When to LOSE a trade?

The best times to lose a trade is at the trade deadline, as I mentioned earlier. This minimizes the risk of the fool you’re trading with from turning around and trading the value you gave up to your competition.

Another time, is right after the draft or as early in the season as possible.  You’re not going to get everyone you want in the draft, that’s a given.  After you examine your roster, it may make sense to trade someone you drafted in the 6th round for someone that was drafted in the late 7th round.

This has the added benefit of allowing you to snag an early waiver-wire gem to fill the void if you end up pulling a 2-for-1.

In the end, you’ll win some and you’ll lose some.  You can’t plan for injuries, and you definitely can’t plan for unexpected break-outs.

There’s a reason why the Green Packers traded Brett Favre to the New York Jets rather than the Minnesota Vikings.  Trading with people who you don’t play or “cant beat you” makes the most sense.  If you can be as  clever as the Packers and somehow work in a claus that limits your trading partner from trading Favre to the rival Vikings — You’re Golden.

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#11 John Lackey – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 11-9, 141K, 3.81ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.25 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130K, 7.16 K:9, 3.25 K:BB

Bill James isn’t kind to John Lackey, and his predictions seem a bit low to me. Lackey has a good chance to raise his K:9 to at least 8 or 9 which combined with 200-220 IP should lead to a 200K season.

His other ratios have continued to improve throughout his career, so expecting a season of 8K per 9, and 2BB per nine seems about right. Along with a decent WHIP of 1.20ish, and a decent ERA.

He put up an ERA of 3.01 in 2007, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops it below 3.00 after a full year of recovery from his strained bicep issue of 2008.

This list is obviously more about value than actual draft position. John Lackey may not be drafted as the 11th best pitcher — but he’ll more than likely produce at this level. I’m not sure how long you can wait on Lackey as he looks to be bouncing up draft boards.

#12 Felix Hernandez – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 11-12, 188K, 3.86ERA, 1.35WHIP, 8.25 K:9

2008: 9 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 175K, 7.85 K:9, 2.19 K:BB

I find it hard to believe that Hernandez will settle into a career WHIP of 1.35-1.40. In 2008, he walked 3.59 batters per nine innings which is up from 2.51 the year before.

Hernandez has some of the best stuff in the league, and last year was just a mess for the entire Seattle organization. It’s not unthinkable that Hernandez will drop his walks back down to the mid-to-low twos.

If Hernandez can stop walking batters, he’ll become the dominant pitcher that everyone’s been waiting for. A decrease in BB would probably result in a drop in ERA, and obviously WHIP.

An ERA of 3.35, and a WHIP of under 1.30 is a good possibility. I think this is the year Hernandez really puts it together and capitalizes on his unbelievable talent.

There’s obviously a good amount of risk here, but pitching at Safeco eliminates a chunk of that risk. It’s somewhat worrisome to see his Line Drive percentage rising over the past few years.

#13 Scott Kazmir – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 10-8, 177K, 3.80ERA, 1.35WHIP, 9.83 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 166K, 9.81 K:9, 2.37 K:BB

Once again, Kazmir comes with a bit of risk. Kazmir is a guy that can put up almost 10K per 9, along with a 1.25ish WHIP. However, expecting a full 220 innings from him is a bit of a reach.

Currently, I’m banking on about 200 IP from Kazmir in 2009. As with Lincecum is just scary to see such a small guy throw the ball 90+ MPH. Kazmir also has a dirty slider to go with his 92mph heat.

As with Sabathia, Halladay and Beckett, I’m somewhat worried about AL East Pitchers. The offenses are now so stacked that there isn’t a break in the schedule.

Who knows how many wins Kazmir will garner, but I expect a pretty solid 2009 season from Scott Kazmir.

#14 Zack Greinke – SP – KC Royals

Bill James Prediction: 12-10, 156K, 3.98ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.24 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 183K, 8.14 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

I’m about as high on Zack Greinke as one can get. Hell, I”ll finance Greinke’s depression meds if he ever falls back off the wagon.

When Greinke came into the league, he was supposed to be the next big thing — then he shat the bed, developed social anxiety, and just stopped caring.

Now, Greinke is back and fulfilling his potential. If anyone comes out of nowhere to post a 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 220 Ks — It’s Zack Greinke.

Greinke has four damn good pitches, with his fastball pushing 94-95ish on a good day. He has amazing control, and I have a pretty big man crush on him.

One of my favourite websites, The Hardball Times, has a great article on Greinke. Apparently I’m not the only one in love with Greinke.

Realistically, I’d be willing to rank Greinke as high as 9th on this list if he starts shooting up expert charts. I’d have absolutely no problem trading Zack Greinke for Josh Beckett straight up. He’ll give you a good return on investment, wherever he’s drafted.

#15 Cliff Lee – SP – CLE Indians

Bill James Prediction: 14-9, 146K, 3.90ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.77 K:9

2008: 22 W, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170K, 6.85 K:9, 5.00 K:BB

I’m not a Cliff Lee fan, but I’m not sure how much further I can drop him after his 2008 Cy Young season. Who knows what kind of win totals Lee will put up in 2009, but Cleveland still has a good bullpen that’s been bolstered by the acquisition of Kerry Wood.

I still think Lee is risky, though. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him drop a 4.00 ERA on his owners. Lee’s always put up solid WHIP numbers, but when you examine last year in detail it just doesn’t seem sustainable.

Lee allowed less than half a HR per 9 and dropped his BB per 9 down to 1.37 after averaging around 1+ HR/9 and somewhere between 2.5 and 4 walks per 9.

Cliff Lee may have a Cy Young award to his credit, but he’s as risky as anyone. Bill James has as good of a guestimate as anyone, so I’ll go with that. If Lee does put up those numbers though, he doesn’t deserve to be drafted this high. Lee’s probably going to get drafted too high based on name recognition anyways, so none of this even matters at 15th overall.

#16 Chad Billingsley – SP – LA Dodgers

Bill James Prediction: 12-9, 189K, 3.69ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.81 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 201K, 9.03 K:9, 2.49 K:BB

Chad Billingsley is another sexy strike out guy that carries at least a bit of risk with him. As with Felix Hernandez, Billingsley’s risk is minimized by the ballpark he pitches in.

Generally, I’d sacrafice a bit of talent for a pitcher-friendly park or a weak schedule. Billingsley has all three. The teams in the NL west aren’t great. Most of the parks out there are extreme pitchers parks (SD, LA, SF) and Billingsley has crazy potential.

On the other hand, Billinglsey has some serious control issues. Billingsley can barely keep his walks per nine on the right side of 4.00 let alone 3.00.

Billingsley isn’t going to have a stellar WHIP because of this, and you’re probably going to be stuck with a 1.30, if you’re lucky.

Billingsley does make up for it with his crazy K:9 numbers, striking out more than a batter an inning which keeps his K:BB ratio at a respectable 2.50.

Billinglsey should improve this year, and I’d imagine his main focus would be control.

#16 Ricky Nolasco – SP – FLA Marlins

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 176K, 3.98ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.73 K:9

2008: 15 W, 3.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 186K, 8.06 K:9, 4.51 K:BB

I’m torn on Ricky Nolasco: There’s a lot of upside, but there’s a huge amount of risk.

There’s really no data to go off of, and if you draft him you’re more than likely in for a bumpy ride / sophomore slump. However, he put up great numbers, in what was essentially his first full season in the majors.

He put up such great ratios last year, and he pitches in such a pitchers park that he should be worth the cash-money. While I personally wouldn’t draft him in front of the next few guys he does have the potential to finish here with even the slightest increase in stats.

He’ll be much cheaper than the big name guys like Burnett, Lester, Vazquez and even Volquez.

At this point it becomes quite difficult to get high strikeout and low whip pitchers and his finish to the 2008 season is just too hard to look past.

#18 James Shields – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 14-10, 178K, 3.65ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.56 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160K, 6.70 K:9, 4.00 K:BB

Shields isn’t sexy and it’s iffy for him to pass 200K, but he should put up a stellar WHIP and ERA.

Some fantasy players end up falling in love with strikeouts and don’t pay nearly enough attention to a .10 decrease in WHIP or ERA. It’s easy to see the difference between 220 Ks and 190 but it’s a bit more difficult to wrap your head around the difference between a 1.35 and 1.19 WHIP.

It’ll be interesting to see whether 2008′s decrease in K rate is a permanent drop or just a temporary abberation. If Shields keeps his K:9 above 7.5 he’ll put up some great stats.

Shields stands out due to his gaudy K:BB ratio: 4.00K:BB is a great ratio for someone who strikes out as many batters as Shields does.

#19 Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-8, 174K, 3.58ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.51 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154K, 8.27 K:9, 1.64 K:BB

Dice-K is the Tracy McGrady of fantasy baseball. Just as McGrady will put up 20pts and 10 rebounds on 6-23 shooting; Dice-K will go and put up a 2.90 ERA while walking 5 batters per nine innings.

Each and every one of Dice-K’s stats lead you to believe that he’s primed for an off-year. A walk rate of 5.05 per 9, a BABIP of .267, a Left on Base percentage of 80.6% and a HR/FB ratio of 6.1 percent.

However, you get the feeling that if Dice-K stops nibbling on the corners and just pitches using his vast reservoir he’ll be just fine. He probably wont repeat his stellar 2008 season, as he was incredibly lucky, but he should be fine.

All of this is probably pointless considering that some fool will draft Dice-K far earlier than warranted.

#20 Francisco Liriano – SP – MIN Twins

Bill James Prediction: 11-8, 171K, 3.62ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.27 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 57K, 7.93 K:9, 2.09 K:BB

I’m making a habit of ending each list with a massive injury risk.

Liriano missed 2007 with Tommy John surgery after an incredible 2006 in which he posted a 2.16 earned run average, a 1.00 walks/hits per innings pitched, and a remarkable 10.71 strikeouts per 9 in 28 games and 121 innings.

In 2008, not quite a full year removed from TJ surgery, Liriano started the season struggling mightily. After a minor league rehab stint, Liriano came back and showed flashes of his previous self.

There’s reason for concern as well as optimism with Liriano going forward. Last year, he shied away from using his devastating slider too much in order to protect his elbow. Now two years removed from surgery, he’ll hopefully be back to normal but you should keep an eye on his velocity and pitch selection to know for sure.

In 2005 and 2006 Liriano threw his fastball about 45% of the time at around 95 MPH. In his first year back, he threw it more (54%) at a lower velocity (91MPH)

To preserve his elbow he threw his slider 26% of the time at 84MPH in 2008 which is much less than the 37% and 87MPH he threw in the previous two years.

With Liriano, it comes down to velocity and pitch selection. You’ll be able to tell quite early in spring training whether or not he has it this year. Liriano is still a great pitcher when he throws his FB at 91 and his slider at 84 — but he’s not the 10+ K per nine guy, who’ll win you a fantasy league.

#21 Yovani Gallardo – SP – MIL Brewers

Bill James Prediction: 13-9, 141K, 3.61ERA, 1.30WHIP, 9.23 K:9

2008: 0 W, 1.88 ERA, 1.25WHIP, 20K, 7.50 K:9, 2.50 K:BB

Gallardo was primed for a break-out 2008 season, and then his ACL exploded while covering first base. Unlike just about every other sport, an ACL injury isn’t a career changing injury for a starting pitcher. Gallardo actually stayed in the game and recorded five outs after tearing his knee up.

Gallardo managed to come back from knee surgery to pitch seven innings in the 2008 playoffs.

With that said, Gallardo has buckets of talent and should come close to a strikeout per inning. He should be fully healthy by spring training, and more importantly regained complete faith in his knee. You’d have to imagine he’d probably improve on his K and BB numbers.

He’s one of the top young pitchers in the game and Bill James and CHONE have him at 9.30 K per nine, while MARCEL has him at 8K:9IP.

There’s obviously some risk here, as Gallardo has only pitched 134 innings in the show. With such a small sample size, anything could potentially happen. Gallardo’s been around for what seems like a while, but he’s still only going to be 23 when the season rolls around.

There is the potential that Gallardo starts to get too much fantasy hype rolling into the 2009 season. Anything higher than 18th or 19th is really just too high for Gallardo. He has the talent to be a top 10 pitcher, but he also comes with a bunch of risk. Liriano probably has a bit more talent, along with a bit more injury risk than Gallardo. Gallardo’s risk is probably composed of 25% injury and 75% lack of data.

#22 Ervin Santana – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 177K, 3.90ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.59 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.12WHIP, 214K, 8.79 K:9, 4.55 K:BB

Santana put up some great numbers last year, as he finally put everything together. It all seems to come down to the number of batters walked, and essentially BB:9.

Santana walked fewer batters in 2008 (47) than in 2007 (58) while pitching 70 more innings. His BB:9 went from 3.5 in 2007 to under 2.0 in 2008.

I’m not sure where this came from, other than the fact he was getting a 67% first strike, and getting batters to swing 32 percent of the time at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%).

It looks like Santana should be able to maintain his success, but he’s 26 yet somehow managed to add a good chunk of velocity across the board. I’m not certain how easy it is to add velocity after a certain age, but the usage of performance enhancing drugs definitely crossed my mind. Increased work ethic would probably be a better way to explain the increase in velocity, but its hard to ignore PEDs as a possibility in this day and age.

Just for the record, his Fastball the past 4 years: 93.4mph, 93.1mph, 92.2mph, 94.4mph.

His Slider, same period: 81.0mph, 80.9mph, 81.0mph, 83.9mph.

#23 Ben Sheets – SP – Free Agent

Bill James Prediction: 13-8, 159K, 3.39ERA, 1.15WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.15WHIP, 158K, 7.17 K:9, 3.36 K:BB

SURGERY FOR MR SHEETS.  CHECK BACK in the DOG DAYS!

I’m not sure where Ben Sheets is going to go, nor am I sure if he’ll stay healthy enough in 2009 to pitch 200 innings.

There’s a lot of possibilities with Ben Sheets though, and you’ll probably want to cash in on it. Sheets will more than likely go to a contender, and be assured at least a few wins throughout the season.

As with many of the elite pitchers, drafting Ben Sheets is essentially a referendum on whether or not he’ll stay healthy.

Since Sheet’s unbelievable 2004, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. His 2004 season was jaw dropping, as he posted a 2.70 ERA to go with 264 strikeouts. In 2008 he almost reached 200 innings, but his K numbers dropped drastically.

From a high of 10K per nine in 2004, Sheets has slowly declined to his 2008 total of 7.17K per nine. Sheets still has the talent to put up a K per IP, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the decline continues.

Hopefully Sheets can bounce his K rate up to at least 8K per 9, and he’ll be golden. Keep an eye on where Sheets goes this off-season.

#24 Matt Cain – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 192K, 3.57ERA, 1.30WHIP, 8.11 K:9

2008: 8 W, 3.76 ERA, 1.36WHIP, 186K, 7.69 K:9, 2.04 K:BB

Matt Cain started out 2008, terribly — awful, Painful.

He managed to salvage his season with some stellar 10, and 11 K performances. He still sprinkled in some stat lines of 5ER in 6IP, but all and all he ended the season very well.

Cain’s a power pitcher, and he’s built like a brick shit-house — so injuries aren’t a concern.

He pitches in the NL west and the Giants have a great stadium, and a half decent defense. Cain’s fastball tops out around 95, and he’ll throw 3 other pitches at you. All four of his pitches can be used as strike-out pitches.

Cain should keep his K:9 somewhere around 8, and pitch 200 IP easily.

Cain’s a pretty safe bet, with some upside which is hard to come by. Most of the pitchers with room for improvement and upside are risky as fuck. Cain’s going to give you some solid innings, and some great strikeout numbers.

#25 Erik Bedard – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 5-5, 86K, 3.72ERA, 1.31WHIP, 8.7 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 73K, 8 K:9, 1.95 K:BB

What a 2008 Bedard had. An injury plagued, sporadically dominant, sporadically awful season had the Seattle media out for Bedard’s throat.

Bedard was traded for by Seattle idiot-GM, Bill Bavasi, who gave up roughly seven arms and two legs to get him ( Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler)

Bedard is one hell of a pitcher though: The question is whether or not he’ll actually want to pitch for Seattle. The media hates him, everyone in Seattle looks back at his acquisition as stooopid, and he’s injury plagued.

If Bedard wants to put up 220 innings and 200K’s, he will. Otherwise, he’s just going to sit out with every ache and pain and pitch less than 100 innings again.

The Mariners aren’t even sure what they want to do with Bedard going forward. There’s no way they can realistically get anything solid for him in a trade and unless he has a great year, he’s only going to garner Type-B compensation when he hits the Free Agent Market.

So, I think Bedard pitches crazy-awesome this year and leaves to further screw over the Mariners.

Go Canada.

#26 A.J. Burnett – SP – NY Yankees

Bill James Prediction: 14-11, 218K, 3.62ERA, 1.28WHIP, 8.76 K:9

2008: 18 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 231K, 9.35 K:9, 2.69 K:BB

A.J. Burnett is a top 12 pitcher if he stays healthy, which he more than likely do now that he’s a Yankee.

I’m a Blue Jays fan, and like all Jays fans; I think A.J Burnett is a douche-bag. Of course everyone understands that you gotta make the cheddar but A.J. never seemed to want to be in Toronto.

A.J. Burnett does have some of the nastiest stuff in the majors, and his curveball is argueably the best in the league. He’s been plagued with injuries throughout his entire career in Florida and Toronto.

At some point, I’ll move AJ up to his rightful place among the top 20 pitchers but I just have trouble believing A.J. will stay healthy let alone duplicate his stellar numbers from last year.

Hopefully Mr. Burnett crumbles under the pressure of New York, or decides to once again stop trying because he’s made his money.

#27 Javier Vazquez – SP – ATL Braves

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 195K, 3.80ERA, 1.24WHIP, 8.20 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 200K, 8.64 K:9, 3.28 K:BB

The Braves acquired Javier Vazquez late last year, when their talks with the Padres f or Jake Peavy fell through.

Vazquez is probably going to give you some of the best value in the 2009 draft. He’s got all the talent in the world, and has put up terrific ratios, but for some screwy reason always seems to put up 4.00+ ERA numbers.

With Vazquez’s return to the NL, you can assume that his already great 8.5ish K:9 is going to rise a wee lil’ bit. Vazquez striking out a batter an inning is not out of the realm of possibility.

Vazquez at 33 is starting to get up there in age, but over the last 4 years h is velocity hasn’t declined even a smidge. He’s still topping out on his fastball at around 94-95, slider 84mph, and curve about 74mph.

Last year Vazquez put up a stupid-silly .328 BABIP, and you’d have to assume that’d regress to career averages + the mean. Bill James properly predicts a BABIP of about .310.

Vazquez also does not get injured: The man keeps trucking along posting 200IP seasons.

All told, you should expect one hell of a season from Javier Vazquez and should draft him as high as 15th, if you’re risk-adverse.

#28 Edinson Volquez – SP – CIN Reds

Bill James Prediction: 11-11,191K, 4.08ERA, 1.41WHIP, 8.95 K:9

2008: 17 W, 3.24 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 206K, 9.45 K:9, 2.22 K:BB

Volquez has always had a solid repitoire of pitches, and a big boy fastball (94-95MPH). Last year came as a complete surprise however. Volquez had been regularly awful in Texas for the past 2 or 3 years.

He put up impressive 2008 pre-season numbers, and showed improved control — but pre-season numbers are generally deceitful.

Volquez pitches in the Great American Bandbox, and there’s no way in hell he’s going to put up similiar numbers. After the all-star break last year, Volquez put up a 4.60 ERA and gave up 9 HR which was a drastic increase from his first half stats.

He still managed to put up an incredibly respectable 3.24 ERA, but that’s going to balloon. His HR/FB ratio is definitely going to go up from 8, and his numbers will suffer.

#29 Carlos Zambrano – SP – CHI CUBS

Bill James Prediction: 13-9,163K, 3.56ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.48 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.29WHIP, 130K, 6.20 K:9, 1.81 K:BB

There’s no way Zambrano can live with himself after posting 6.20 strike outs per nine. In 2008, Zambrano became a bitch-ass soft-tosser rather than a burly 250lb power pitcher.

He decreased his BB / 9 down 3.43 after two years of 4.80 and 4.34BB per nine. While Zambrano’s increased control is reminiscent of his amazing 2004 & 2005 numbers, his strike out rate took a major hit.

Zambrano is pretty much useless if he’s not putting up at least 7.50K per 9, and I obviously expect a return to that. If Zambrano isn’t putting up at least a 2.00 K to BB ratio, he’s pretty much useless other than his contributions to Wins.

Wrigley is a half decent park to pitch in, until the winds start blowing out.

All and all, Zambrano is capable of putting up 200+ K’s and he’s got the frame to stay healthy. He’ll generally be around league average in WHIP, but he should be up solid win totals as Chicago is once again favoured to win the central.

#30 Jon Lester – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-11,168K, 4.02ERA, 1.40WHIP, 7.13 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.21 ERA, 1.27WHIP, 152K, 6.50 K:9, 2.30 K:BB

If Lester puts up similiar numbers to last year, there’s a couple pitchers that make more sense at this spot (Oswalt, Lilly, Garza).

However, Lester is a young guy who’s bound to improve. While Lester’s K per 9 decreased in 2008, he improved his control quite a bit, lowering his BB:9 from 4.43 to 2.82.

Pitching for Boston affords Lester a good chance at 20 Wins, and he’s Boston’s only reliable lefty. Last year, Lester was probably Boston’s best pitcher and while his dominance doesn’t transfer particularly well into the fantasy world; he’s primed for a break out year.

Lester’s a fairly safe bet, with decent potential. 200 strikeouts is probably a bit of a reach for Lester, but 18 Wins, 1.25WHIP, 3.25 ERA and 180K’s isn’t unreasonable. Lester will help you in all categories without hurting you in any one category.

Photo Of Liriano: Aturkus / Flickr

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Which starting pitchers will excel in 2009? A quick little look at the numbers each SP should put up, combined with a gut feeling of what they’ll actually put up.

#1 Johan Santana – SP – NY Mets

Bill James Prediction: 18-7, 234K, 3.01ERA, 1.07WHIP, 9.16 K:9

2008: 16 W, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206K, 7.91 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

Great things were expected of Santana last year after a tremendous 2007 campaign and while he didn’t disappoint, his strikeout numbers drastically decreased. 2008 was the first year that Santana failed to strikeout at least one batter per inning since becoming a starting pitcher.

Santana’s other 2008 numbers remained similar to career averages, and the slight increase in BB:9 isn’t concerning.

At this point, Santana is the safest bet. While another pitcher or two may finish ahead of Santana in the final standings — they’ll also come with larger risks.

CitiBank will almost certainly favour pitchers in the same manner that Shea did as the dimensions are almost exactly the same.

If Lincecum wasn’t 160lbs soaking wet, and Sabathia didn’t have the potential to eat the big apple; they’d both be able to give Santana a run for his money. As always, pitchers are a fickle bunch and even the dominant ones manage to get themselves hurt ruining your fantasy season.

#2 Tim Lincecum – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 17-9, 272K, 3.02ERA, 1.19WHIP, 10.2 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 265K, 10.5 K:9, 3.26 K:BB

Lincecum has potential to put up big boy stats, and quite possibly lead the league in just about every meaningful pitching category. I’d almost certainly put him as the top pitcher if not for his petite frame. At 5’11, 170lbs, the body just isn’t made to throw 95mph. His delivery is also a concern, and the possibility of injury is just to great to put Lincecum at number 1.

Everything else is great for Lincecum. He pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, and he’s got great ratios.

While his WINS may not stack up against the kids in New York, he’ll manage more than a couple. Wins are the most random stat of the bunch anyways, so banking on them is generally a silly idea.

James’ predictions are almost always insanely conservative, so to see Lincecum improving on last years strike out numbers is a great sign. If you think Lincecum pitches all year without injury — there’s no harm in drafting him above Santana.

#3 C.C. Sabathia – SP – NY Yankees

BJP: 16-10, 205K, 3.48ERA, 1.23WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 17 W, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251K, 8.93 K:9, 4.25 K:BB

Personally, I wouldn’t touch Sabathia with a ten foot pole. You’re going to have to pay too much for him in an auction draft, or draft him too early in a snake. Unless he falls into your lap, he’s probably going to be a reach due to the New York hype machine.

Sabathia also seems to have a bit of Manny Ramirez in him and now that he’s got the big fat contract, he may just let himself go.

Everyone will remember his 2008 finish, but the start of his 2008 season was concerning.

With all that said, C.C. Sabathia will fill the stat sheet for you. He’ll obviously put up solid win totals playing for the rebuilt Yankees.

C.C. Sabathia should top 200 Ks easily, and his ratios will remain as some of the best in the majors.

#4a Jake Peavy – SP – SD? Padres?

BJP: 14-8, 202K, 3.26ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.0 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166K, 8.60 K:9, 2.81 K:BB

Peavy’s 2008 numbers weren’t as flashy as normal which has more to do with his IP totals than the slight decline in K:9.

Peavy probably has the best value in the top 10 SP, as many experts have him rated lower.

Peavy pitches in a pitcher’s park, and generally keeps his WHIP in the 1.05-1.10 range. His 2008 strained right elbow more than likely raised his WHIP while his GS fell.

Predicting a “bounce back” year for Peavy is easy to do. The potential for 210Ks with a sub-1.10 WHIP, and sub-3.00 ERA is hard to resist.

The difference between Peavy and the next group of pitchers simply comes down to ratios. Peavy’s ERA the past five years is 2.27, 2.88, 4.09, 2.54, 2.85 along with a 1.20, 1.04, 1.23, 1.06, 1.18 WHIP.

#4b Cole Hamels – SP – PHI Phillies

BJP: 16-8, 214K, 3.24ERA, 1.12WHIP, 8.64 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196K, 7.76 K:9, 3.70 K:BB

The difference between Hamels and Peavy is negligible and you can’t go wrong with either one. Personally, I think you’re going to have to pay more for Hamels for the same amount of production. Both have similiar ceilings, but Hamels has an offense behind him — which should lead to increased wins. Philadelphia also has a rock-solid bullpen that’s capable of holding onto leads, even with the loss of J.C. Romero.

If you can get Hamels cheaper than Peavy, by all means take him for the guaranteed wins.

Hamels has been injury free since he came to the Majors, but I believe he had a small series of minor league injuries. The potential is always there when you’re not built like a brick shithouse.

Hamels is the last of the guaranteed 200K, 1.20WHIP guys without injury worries. If you’re going to draft a starting pitcher early, I’d recommend getting in before this cut off point.

#6 Brandon Webb – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 15-9, 176K, 3.37ERA, 1.24WHIP, 7.14 K:9

2008: 22 W, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183K, 7.27 K:9, 2.82 K:BB

Webb has been solid for a while now, and seems to go through an un-hittable phase each and every year. He’s got ridiculous sinking action on his fast ball which he throws about 3/4 of the time, at around 88-90mph.

He’s not a pure strike out pitcher, but he’ll creep up on 200k if he can notch 220-230 IP. This is a bit concerning however as he’s entering the “DEAR GOD- HIS ARM JUST FELL OFF” stage after 5 seasons of 200IP in a row. There’s the potential there for injury, but its limited.

Everything points to Brandon Webb keeping his WHIP in the 1.20 range. However, Webb went through a couple stints last year where he’d give up 5-7 runs per contest, which is worrisome.

There’s very little risk in drafting a player like Webb, and while he may not put up crazy K numbers he’ll hold his own as the ace of any staff.

#7 Dan Haren – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 14-10, 174K, 3.59ERA, 1.20WHIP, 7.46 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206K, 8.53 K:9, 5.15 K:BB

When the Oakland Athletics get rid of a pitcher, he almost always becomes terrible. Dan Haren actually improved, however.

Haren was a machine in 2008, and with a BABIP of .315 after 4 years of .305 and below — he may actually improve.

Pitchers generally get a bump when they switch leagues as the hitters haven’t timed their delivery, nor have they seen their arsenal. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Haren come back down to earth a little bit although he had pitched a year and a half in Cardinal red and white.

With a 2008 K:9 of 8.58, a WHIP of 1.13, and a remarkable K:BB ratio of 5.15 — Haren is looking solid.

As mentioned earlier, Bill James is generally quite conservative and will rely on a three year average rather than a stunning previous year, if the data is available. I tend to agree with this approach, unless you believe a player has turned the corner. Obviously, you can’t tell simply based on stats whether or not a player has turned the corner.

So it’s up to you. Haren could easily put up numbers better than Webb and on par with Peavy and Hamels. There’s a bit of risk here, but not enough to keep you up at night.

#8 Roy Halladay – SP – TOR Blue Jays

BJP: 17-10, 172K, 3.18ERA, 1.13WHIP, 6.42 K:9

2008: 20 W, 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 206K, 7.53 K:9, 5.23 K:BB

Roy Halladay’s totals rely on how many games he starts. Halladay is a great pitcher, and a must have in any league that considers Complete Games or Quality Starts a category.

Roy’s K:9 took a huge leap last year, after many years of a consistent 5.5 to 6.5 ratio. To predict a repeat of his 2008 7.54 K per 9 is somewhat foolish.

When you draft Halladay, you’ll get your wins, era, and whip — guaranteed.

Unfortunately, his strike out numbers are going to depend heavily on innings pitched. He’s made a habit of throwing 230+ inninngs, and when he does that, he’ll put up solid K numbers.

While I have no data to suggest that Halladay ends up with a major shoulder injury this year, it seems quite possible given his workload and the Blue Jays dependance on him.

#9 Josh Beckett – SP – BOS Red Sox

BJP: 13-8, 176K, 3.57ERA, 1.22WHIP, 8.38 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172K, 8.88 K:9, 5.06 K:BB

Josh has the dirty dirty and can hang with anyone. Over the past two years, he’s drastically cut back on his walks per nine (from 3+ to under 2.00), which fantasy owners love.

Unfortunately, Beckett has blister issues. He’s always has blister issues, and they’re certainly caused by his uncle charlie. His Curve is probably his best strike out pitch and he needs it to be an elite pitcher.

To add to this, he’s now becoming a dirty old man who bitches about his back all the time. So, he’s got some serious injury issues and if you’re banking on 200IP you may be in for a ride.

When Josh Beckett does pitch however, it’s beautiful. He strikes out a batter an inning, he’ll put up a sub-1.20 WHIP, his K:BB is 5 and he plays for the Red Sox.

#10 Rich Harden – SP – CHI Cubs

BJP: 11-5, 151K, 3.02ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.44 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 181K, 11.01 K:9, 2.97 K:BB

Yah, this is stupid.

Rich Harden is going to get hurt.

This pick / rating depends on how deep your league is. In a deep league, Harden gets moved down. But in a shallow league, where when Harden makes his eventual DL trip you’ll be able to spot start guys with favorable match-ups and keep your ERA under four: Harden goes here.

Harden’s numbers last year were ridiculous: 11! K! per! 9! , 1.06 WHIP

Basically, sit down and realistically figure out how many innings you think Harden will pitch. If you think he pitches more than 150 innings, its worthwhile to draft him. Even at 150 innings, he’ll strike out 160-170 and when you add that with 50 innings of spot starting nice matchups — you’re going to end up with a 200K guy, with a 1.20 WHIP, a 3.20 ERA.

Harden does have a huge history of injuries, and he’ll probably go down. How you value him really depends on what kind of waiver wire you think you’ll have. If the top 80-90 SP are gone, you’re probably going to want to wait on Harden.

Harden’s the biggest boom / bust of the entire draft.

Generally, I like to see at least a 7.5 to 8 strikeouts per nine, to throw this tag on. However, if a pitcher has a realistic shot of accumulating enough innings to reach 200 Ks with a lower ratio he should still be viewed as a source of K’s

ESPN uses an incredibly simple formula to determine which ball parks favor hitters, and which favor pitchers. Its called park factors, and since your pitchers play half of their games at home — it’s pretty important.

Greg Maddux-type accuracy is great to have on your roster. Dice-K type accuracy, is not. Dice-K can hit all of the spots, and ends up walking quite a few batters because he’s going for the perfect pitch each and every time. This is as much about WHIP as it is about accuracy.

Simple: he’s either coming off an injury, has a history of injuries, or he’s someone who’s 5’10, 170lbs, and throws 100mph. Tiny frames aren’t meant to throw that hard.

If you play with fire, you get burnt. These are just risky players, and a few of them on a roster is brilliant, but stacking your roster with boom/bust guys will end you up losing more often than winning.

Tim Lincecum Photography From Dave Nelson, Flickr

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With the recent signing of Randy Wolf (1-year, 5-million) the Dodgers’ rotation is starting to take shape.  Considering Pitchers and Catchers are only a week away from reporting, it’s a safe bet to project the rotation as follows: Billingsley, Wolf, Kershaw, Kuroda, with Schmidt, Vargas and a handful of others fighting for the last spot.

So, for the sake of fantasy owners’ sanity, we’ll assume that Kershaw will have a starting gig throughout the entirety of 2009.

When dealing with young hurlers, you really only have to concern yourself with a few things.

1. A High Strike-out Rate (K%, or K per 9):  If the kid doesn’t strike batters out,  they’re generally not worth the risk.  There are very few exceptions where a players WHIP, and ERA will be useful and draft worthy but it can easily blow up in your face.  Ian Kennedy of the Yankees comes to mind.
2. Control, Control, Control. A kid can have all the stuff in the world, but at some point batters will stop swinging if he cant control at least two of his pitches.
3. Change Speeds / Keep Batters off balance.  Most of the young guys that get thrown into  the hype machine will be tossing at least 94-95 MPH but if he doesn’t have something else — he’ll more than likely end up in a relief role.

Now, lets see what Kershaw brings to the table:

Dominant Strike-Out Pitcher: Even though Kershaw’s dirty strike-out per nine numbers took a dip when he came to the bigs, he’s still dominant in the strike-out department.  Expecting anywhere from an 8 to 11 strike-outs per nine is realistic.

Strike-outs aren’t a problem, as Kershaw’s bringing 94-95mph heat to the mound with him.  If Torre lets Kershaw loose, which probably wont happen until at least the All-Star break, watch out.

Control, Control, Control: Statistically speaking, 100 innings pitched isn’t quite enough to go on especially when you consider it was Kershaw’s first major league action.  However, his BB/9 are ’round about where you’d expect a young power pitcher to be. If Kershaw continues pitching at around 8 or 9 K per 9, his walk rate should improve in 2009. If Kershaw starts going all out, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his K-Rate skyrocket to 11ish, and his BB rate bounce up to about 5ish.

Either way, Kershaw is going to be useful.  However, there are going to be some serious rough patches. For the most part Kershaw’s BAD games, were somewhat predictable.

6 ER in 4 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies on August 23.

5 ER in 3 IP agaist the Colorado Rockies in Coors on July 22.

5 ER in 2.1 IP against the Washington Nationals on August 28th. Guh?

It’d be nice to see Kershaw improve on his walk rate, and his minor league stats don’t particularly lean one way or another. In his final season in the Minors, Kershaw cut his walk rate to 2.79 per nine which looked like a good sign.

Change Speeds & Buckle Knees: Kershaw’s got the right stuff and once he learns to control it, he’ll be great. What stands out is his ability to go from 94-95 on average, with about about a 97mph ceiling, and then buckle knees with what is already considered one of the best curve-balls in the game and comes in at about 74-75mph.

Kershaw’s change-up is getting better and while he’s only throwing it 5-6 percent of the time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this jump to about 12 % with a off-season and spring-training under his belt.

Spring-training generally means absolutely nothing, but watch Kershaw.  I’m sure they dont have the lovely PFX data during spring camp, but you can tell the difference between his change and curve pretty easily.

There’s a great article on Clayton Kershaw’s future from the hardballtimes.com that showcases a few things about his arm-angle, release point, and future projections.  The HardBallTimes.com is one of the best reads on the web.

The Verdict: Feed the machine, and throw Kershaw straight to the head of the young-pitchers pack. Lincecum, who was drafted the same year as Kershaw, had the benefit of college to hone his control skills and all of the little things. Keep in mind  that Lincecum is almost 4 years older than Kershaw, and Kershaw might requiring a bit of babying by Torre.

Kershaw’s breakout year could come as soon as 2009, but I’d instead be banking on about 185 IP / 8.5 K per 9 / and a 3.25 BB:9 / which puts Kershaw in pretty elite company. Expect improvement, and as long as he’s pitching in the pitcher-friendly NL West, enjoy the ride.

David Price may garner more hype going into 2009, but Kershaw is probably a slightly safer bet with equal, if not greater, upside.

Photo: wish_nbk flickr

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Is it 11th  overall selection Max Scherzer? Nope.

Is it 10th overall selection Tim Lincecum? Nope. Keep Going!

Is it Clayton Kershaw, drafted 7th overall? Nope. Further, my friend. Further and Higher.

What about Andrew Miller, Drafted 6th overall? Nope, higher still.

Oh, You must be searching for the 5th overall draft pick. The flame thrower from UC Berkeley, Brandon Morrow.  Yup, that’s it.

Morrow’s name has been plastered all over “Sleepers  for 2009″ sections, in all of the major magazines and websites. I’m guessing this has something to do with his 95.5 MPH fastball

Let’s take a little bit of a look at this flame thrower, and his limited relief statistics so far:

What Jumps out? Well, his K to BB ratio is not even 2.  This is a problem.

A quick look for pitchers that have a K:BB ratio of 2 and lower, reveals:

1. Jair Jurrgens posted a (1.99 K:BB)
2. Ubaldo Jiminez ( 1.67 K:BB)
3. Mike Pelfrey (1.72 K:BB)
4. Dice-K (1.64)
5. Dana Eveland (1.53)
6. Manny Parra (1.96)
7. Carlos Zambrano (1.81)
8. Ian Snell (1.52)
9. Oliver Perez (1.71)

You get the point.  It’s going to be tough for Morrow to be anywhere near as dominant as experts project unless he can drastically lower his walk rate. His 10.44 strike outs per nine is nice to look at, but as long as its accompanied by a 4.73 BB / 9 rate — he’s in trouble.

Morrow’s ERA Prior to becoming a starter 1.47 ERA over 36.2 IP

Morrow’s ERA  After becoming a starter in September, where he pitched 5 games, 3.34 ERA over 64.2 IP.

This is quite the jump.

Lets look at the projection systems: Bill James has him posting 10.04K:9, and a 5.70 BB:9. CHONE has him at 10.5 K per 9, and 5.05 BB per 9.

Bill James’ maths translate these numbers into 140 Innings Pitched, an 8-8 record, and a 3.84 ERA to go along with a 1.43 WHIP. This is not pretty.

Obviously, with the switch to the Starting Pitcher Role, you’d expect Morrow’s WHIP to rise from his 1.20 in 2007, and 1.14 in 2008.  How far you think it’ll go up, is really up to interpretation.

Morrow’s spent a season working with Pitching God, Mel Stottlemyre.  If there’s anything that’ll change a flame-throwing kid for the positive, it’s Mel.

Now, with that said.  There’s a few questions you should ask yourself before drafting Brandon Morrow.

1. Do you think he’ll pitch the entire year? 140 IP seems reasonable, 200 Seems possible.
2. If he does pitch the entire year, what are the odds he fatigues and sucks it up around the end of the season.  If you have an active league where you can trade Brandon Morrow after the All-Star break — then there’s a good amount of value here.  If you’re in a league where no one trades because everyone always needs to get the best of the trade — buyer beware.
3. Will he add a pitch? Right now Morrow is sitting on a blistering fastball, a good slider, and a splitter that tends to mimmick the slider pretty closely.  He has nothing that’ll tail from lefties.  If Morrow can get his change working, or pick up a decent curve he’ll be set.  Right Now, I tend to think he’s better served in a late rotation or bullpen role.

All and All, just keep an eye on Morrow.  If he’s looking good, and reports are good  — then he’s worth the risk with a K:9 above 10.

The Verdict: The Machine likes flame-throwers but it can find plenty of them floating around. Don’t overpay for Morrow based on the appearance of a pitcher with a sub-1.20 WHIP.  Understand you’re getting a High-K, High-BB guy with the potential of experiencing dead arm syndrome.  You’re getting more Ubaldo Jiminez (not a bad thing) than Joba Chamberlain.

Photo Courtesy of MarkSobba Flickr

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Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles

Matt Wieters . Gallery 2 Sports

Matt Wieters is far and away the best of the bunch, and should contribute early and often.  He’s worth a roster-spot in any format, and should bring plenty of everything to your fantasy squad. There’s been plenty of peeps comparing Matt Wieters to Joe Mauer + power.

What this means for people who are bad with addition and maths in general  is: Matt Wieters has a very sweet swing, a swing that you show in hitting clinics and can punish the ball. He’s got a superior eye, a major league ready eye, and the patience to go with it.

Of course, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Wieters prioritize one of his skills over the others, depending on coaching. Wieters could take the Joe Mauer route, and rely solely on his eye/patience and become a .320 hitter each and every year. In College, A+ and AA ball, Matt Wieters didn’t hit lower than .345.

Wieters could also sacrafice a few points in average, to become one of the best power-hitting catchers — ever.  It wouldn’t surprise me for Wieters to hit 25 Home Runs every year that he stays healthy.  At 6’4, 225lbs, the potential for a switch to first base after a few years is a definite possibility. I guess it all relies on whether or not his back holds up.

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