Hochevar’s had quite the ride in his brief professional career and while this isn’t a screw Scott Boras article, it probably should be.  Hochevar didn’t sign his first big-league contract until he was drafted for the third! time by the Royals first overall in the 2006 draft.  Since then, the 6’5″ mountain of a man showed promise in the minor leagues before making his big-league debut in 2007.  Then the wheels fell off.  Hochevar couldn’t get his ERA below five at the big league level, but continued to dominate after being optioned to AAA.

Fastforward to 2010 and Hochevar has finally gotten his ERA below five by a full five-hundredths of a run (4.95) — Exciting!

With two starts coming up in the next week, Hochevar could prove to be useful despite his propensity to lose control and blow-up.  On a team like the Royals, I wouldn’t count on Hochevar beating Ervin Santana (vs. LAA) or Justin Verlander (vs. DET) but that doesn’t mean Hochevar’s without value.

In the month of May, Hochevar’s pitched 32 innings of 3.94 ERA baseball.  Hochevar’s month-to-month splits perfectly showcases the role of luck in baseball:

April: AVG – .313, WHIP – 1.71, BABIP – .369, LOB% – 56.7%, FIP – 3.60.

May: AVG – .233, WHIP – 1.09, BABIP – .233, LOB% – 61.8%, FIP – 3.69.

It’s not all luck though, Hochevar’s reduced his line-drive percentage from 26% in April to 17.5% in May while maintaining a relatively constant 50% GB ratio.

To maintain any semblance of success, Hochevar will need to continue to pound the zone as he’s done in his last two starts.  Pitch location is key for a fastball that averaged 93.6mph against Cleveland (Note:  KC’s Gun renders a bit high, thus the spikes in velocity, so I’m using @CLE data).

Early strikes have allowed Hochevar to use his relatively new cut fastball which has been dominant thus far.  After throwing the pitch 0.2 and 0.8 percent over the previous years, Hochevar’s added a couple mph to the pitch and started throwing it 13.1% of the time.

In just his previous two games, Hochevar has went to the cut fastball 19.4% of the time eliciting a 62.5% swing rate and a whiff-rate of 22.5%. As a result of the cutter, Hochevar lasted 8 innings against Texas (2ER) and pitched a complete game against the Tribe (3ER).

Hochevar’s slider always been his best pitch and 2010 is no different as it’s registered a 3.07 (wSL/C) on fangraphs’ weighting system.   To round out Hochevar’s repertoire are a couple of less than stellar pitches that may be coming around.  Hochevar’s change-up has been consistently bad due to a lack of vertical movement but over the previous two starts he’s had a pretty good feel for it.  Finally, Hochevar will throw a steep curveball that breaks well below his slider but like his change-up, he’ll have issues locating the pitch from time to time and will often hang it up right around the belt.

Hochevar’s interesting combination of straight-heat with tail, a cutter and a rather dirty slider could be interesting to follow for the rest of the year.  If he’s able to maintain those three pitches while cleaning up his two-seamer, change and curveball, he may blossom into the pitcher that he should’ve been by now.

The case for Jon Lester isn’t made nearly enough; somewhere along the line we got stuck classifying Lester as a feel good story rather than an absolutely dominant pitcher.  The timing of his playoff success and subsequent no-hitter after coming back from cancer was extraordinary but has almost served to dull his star in the post-media circus .  While cancer has undoubtedly defined his life, at some point we’ve got to start viewing him as Jon Lester, Cy Young candidate, rather than Jon Lester, cancer survivor.

Furthermore, at this point it’s not even candidate, it’s favourite.

Lester sits tied for second in strike-outs behind Tim Lincecum after last night’s nine strike-out performance.  Lester’s ERA of 3.15 ranks 31st amongst starting pitchers which may seem pedestrian until perspective’s added:  On April 18th, Lester had already accumulated his 2 losses on the season with an ERA of 8.44 through three games.  In the 49 and two-thirds innings since, Jon Lester’s allowed exactly 8 ER for an ERA of 1.45 en route to five wins and two no decisions.

In addition to adding 3mph to his heater since entering the league, Lester’s ability to manipulate the spin of the ball, working it on both axis, has allowed him to dominate both like-handed and opposite-handed batters.

From the top, you’ll notice that Lester’s able to either cut or tail his fastball with distinctive movement in either direction.  Lefties have been unfortunate enough to see Lester’s cutter (2.86 wCT/C) almost 30% of the time which may have been the worst of it in previous years.

In 2010 however, Lester possesses a refurbished toy in his change-up that he’s been throwing over 15% of the time to righties.  Not only does the change-up drop an extra four inches (w/o gravity,) it exhibits very powerful tail (9.6″) and has been worth 4.29 runs per 100 pitches.

With Lester’s K-per-9 reaching almost 10, the only major concern has been his BB-Rate.  After last night’s five walk performance, Jon Lester’s BB/9 is approaching four.  While it’s impossible to completely ignore this, there’s been plenty of data that says Lester’s walk rate should settle in the high-twos and if this is the case, you’re looking at your AL Cy Young Winner.

Yesterday, we cycled through the hitters on our way to creating the perfect point system.  Everything worked out dandy, so it’s onto the pitchers today.

A Quick Note: these rankings do not take into account scarcity, which we’ll get into when I rank the players.  Simply applying the formula by itself to rank players will give you the best players, but you’ll end up with 10 SP and no RP.

Wins:

This is probably the easiest to predict because it remains pretty static from year to year.

Weighted Average: 19.2 Wins

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE WIN:  5.21

Strike-Outs:

Weighted Average: 233

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE STRIKE-OUT:  0.43

Saves:

Weighted Average: 44.2

Small Adjustment for K-Rod’s ridiculous 2008 season.

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE SV:  2.23

IP:

This is where we end up with a bit of a head-ache, at least in terms of explaining it.  IP is used in both WHIP and ERA, and will be split up like this, although it doesn’t really matter.

One Inning Pitched when calculating WHIP = 0.95

One Inning Pitched when calculating ERA = 0.90

One Inning Pitched is worth 1.85

Walks and Hits:

Now we have to start penalizing the things we don’t like.  Walks and Hits are equal when it comes to WHIP in Roto & H2H; so they’re equal here too.

One Walk or Hit is Worth: NEGATIVE 0.5

Earned Runs:

Earned runs follow the same pattern as WHIP and show just how dominant Zach Greinke’s was in the 2009 season.  Not only did he have a 2.16 ERA, but he did it over 230 IP.  It’s almost exactly on par with Roger Clemens’ 1.87 ERA over 211 IP in 2005.

One Earned Run  is Worth: NEGATIVE 1.5

2005 Perfect Pitcher Results

2006 Perfect Pitcher Results

2007 Perfect Pitcher Results

2008 Perfect Pitcher Results

2009 Perfect Pitcher Results

Entering the year, everyone knew that Washington was going to have some serious problems with their rotation but, at the very least, their offense was going to be respectable.

Jim Bowden had assembled some terrific young talent, and brought in a couple key free agents.  Unfortunately, the Washington Nationals found a way to let their premiere talent waste away on the bench, or in the minors, while trotting out league average scrubs day in, and day out.

To many, it appeared as though Bowden was building a fantasy baseball squad, where Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham would fill the UTIL spots while Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Corey Patterson, Willie Harris and Austin Kearns would split time in the outfield.

Elijah Dukes looked to have broken through in 2008, leaving the past behind, and becoming an actual ball-player.  Dukes’ was a terrific power/speed guy that managed to get on base at a .386-clip in 2008 — things were lookin’ up.

Lastings Milledge had a realistic shot at 20 HR / 20 SB this year, but we all know how that turned out.  Everyone understands that the kid doesn’t listen, won’t take a walk, and strikes out too much, but the talent is definitely there.

So rather than giving these two legitimate shots of improving as ball-players, the Washington Nationals decided that 30-year old Josh Willingham, and 29-year old Austin Kearns were going to be the future of their franchise.

Willingham has had a spectacular year, posting a .300 AVG /.412 OBP/.933 OPS slash-line in 2009, but he’s also the proud owner of a .329 BABIP and 20% HR/FB ratio.   When we look at 2009, we’re looking at Josh Willingham’s ceiling as a ballplayer.

Austin Kearns has been under the Mendoza line for almost the entire year, but has still managed 210 plate appearances.

Nyjer Morgan, acquired in the Milledge-deal,  provides a nice little spark plug and an unholy defensive improvement, but why are the Nationals trading for outfielders to begin with?

Jim Bowden and Manny Acta are both gone now, but they’ve left one hell of a mess. A mess that Mike Rizzo is attempting to clean up by trading Nick Johnson, who’s departure essentially freed up an outfield spot as Adam Dunn slid over to first base.

With that said, Elijah Dukes has found himself recalled to the Big Club.  It was around this time last year that Elijah Dukes started to catch fire and absolutely rake.  In 2009, much like 2008, it’ll probably come down to AB’s and not much else.  Dukes destroyed AAA pitching over the past month, posting a 1.13 BB/K ratio to compliment his .943 OPS.

Last night against the Pirates, Riggleman trotted Dukes out in the number six spot.  It’s a great spot for Dukes, hitting after Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham, and should increase his RBI numbers substantially.  He may have the Catcher (Bard/Flores,) Second Baseman (Hernandez/Gonzalez,) and Pitcher hitting after him, but at least he’s not forced to hit after Christian Guzman and his .322 OBP.

At the start of the season, I predicted that Elijah Dukes and Washington’s incredibly solid offense would put up fairly surprising numbers.  Little did I know that Dukes would find his ass on the bench, and then in the Minors.  I’m still not ready to admit that I was wrong because there’s no explanation for the shit-show that went down in Washington but I’d recommend picking up Elijah Dukes as soon as possible, especially if he starts getting regular at-bats.

I’m left to wonder what kind of numbers Dukes would be sitting on if Acta had shown enough trust in him to give him regular at-bats.  The Nationals have the worst pitching in the league by a country mile, and I’ll never be able to wrap my head around why the Manager and General Manager didn’t let their young guys play.

Maybe I’m just clinging to the past, unable to admit that I was simply incorrect.

This was going to be a simple article recommending Colby Rasmus and then jerking off his ego for a bit.  It’s still a good idea to go and pick up Colby Rasmus, especially if you’re the type to monitor rosters on a daily basis.  Colby Rasmus, like almost every other youngster, is handled with kiddie gloves when it comes to platooning. While I understand that putting the best line-up on the field is the manager’s job, I’m not completely sold on the premise that sitting a young player against a same-handed pitcher aids his development.  I’m more of a “throw ‘em to the wolves and see what happens” type of person.  Of course Rasmus is going to only hit .116 against lefties when he’s only faced them 43 times, and has rarely seen the same lefty twice in one game.  Baseball folk claim that sitting them will increase confidence, but I can’t fathom how showing a lack of confidence in a hitter increases their confidence.

This practice is definitely not limited to just Colby Rasmus; it pretty much spans every non-switching hitting uber-prospect.  Like Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider only saw 16 AB in 15 G against left handed pitching. Even if it’s a small sample size, Snider did manage to hit .313 in those 16 AB.  Jordan Schafer wasn’t ready, but he too only saw 52 AB in 27 games against lefties.  Carlos Gonzalez hasn’t been up long, but he too has only seen 4 AB in 4 games against same-handed pitchers.  Gerardo Parra rounds out the tentative list of top-100 prospects that simply do not get to face left handed pitching.

Can it be good for a young player to know that he’s sitting every time a left-hander starts?  Watching Travis Snider earlier this year was painful, as his frustration shone through.  There was no way that he was getting into a schedule and in turn, looked terrible against lefties and righties alike.  Strangely enough, he was sent down to the minors to get every day at-bats.  Whether you agree or disagree with the practice doesn’t particularly matter when gauging a player’s fantasy value.  You just have to know who sits, and when they sit.

If you’ve got a solid bench player, Colby Rasmus is entering must-own territory.  Against righties, Rasmus is hitting .331 with a .365 OBP and a .561 slugging percentage, which is good for a .926 OPS.  These are numbers that play in almost every league, even if his counting stats don’t match ‘em at this point. LaRussa still has Skip Schumaker leading off, but has let Colby Rasmus bat second 4 of the past 5 games. For obvious reasons, batting directly in front of Albert Pujols is beneficial.  If Rasmus can keep up his hot hitting against righties, his counting statistics which are currently pretty average, should sky-rocket.

Rasmus is going to have to start adapting shortly as he’s now been up long enough for pitchers to have fairly precise scouting reports.  He’s currently sitting below a 6% BB which will have to change if he plans on being successful through September.  There’s definitely a lot of risk associated with Rasmus, any youngster for that matter, but as a plug-and-play candidate against righties, Rasmus brings very solid value to the table. In the end, Rasmus should show some regression, as he’s been getting slightly lucky on his balls-in-play but that should be off-set by him running a little bit more.  There’s no reason why an athlete the calibre of Colby Rasmus shouldn’t be allowed at least a shot at stealing 10 bases

As a Blue Jays fan, I’m scared.  If you’re a Roy Halladay owner, you should share my trepidation.  Not because Roy Halladay has been lack-luster, he has won 9 games, but rather because he’s been too damn good.  Last night Roy Halladay notched 14 strike-outs for a career best, while limiting the Angels to four runs and earning himself the complete-game victory.  An extended home-half of the sixth really threw Halladay out of sync, and Roy allowed all four of his runs in the top-half of the seventh.  Who know’s how great Halladay’s final line could have been if the Jays had went 1-2-3 in their half of the sixth…

Anyways, this is why I’m worried if I’m a Halladay owner:

1. Cito Gaston trotted Roy Halladay out there for 133 pitches last night, almost unheard of now-a-days.
2. Roy Halladay leads the league in pitches thrown by a country mile at 1304.  Big Kevin Millwood sits second, a full 94 pitches behind Roy.
3. Halladay also leads the league in Innings Pitched at 91, nine full innings more than #2 Zack Greinke. Halladay’s thrown 2 complete games, 3 eight-inning games and seven seven-inning games.  Halladay’s yet to pitch 7 full  innings in 12 GS.
4. Halladay is throwing a lot of cutters, even more than last year, which aren’t the friendliest pitch for a pitchers elbow.  This is what I’d like to look into a bit more…

Fangraphs.com is reporting that Halladay’s throwing a cutter a full-45% of the time, averaging 90-91mph.  This is a huge increase in last year’s 33% and an astronomical increase over the 25% he threw the year before.  Currently, Halladay’s throwing 30% fastballs and 24% curveballs, to go along with that 45% Cutter Rate.

While I can’t speculate on the grip that Halladay’s using, it appears as though Halladay’s throwing about 70% of what could be considered “injury-elevating” pitches.

Roy Halladay's Latest Start vs. Angels

The rather large cluster of both Green and Black in the middle are fastballs with some degree of cut on them.  The left side green cluster are  four seam fastballs with a few two-seamers, towards the bottom of the graph in greeny-blue. The point here is that Halladay is throwing about as many four-seam fastballs as he’s throwing curveballs, and using cutters almost 50% of the time.

Halladay has had some fluke injuries, but he’s also had shoulder surgery in 2004 and forearm problems in 2006 when he first started really using his cutter.  Eitherway, as a Jays fan — I’m worried. As a fantasy owner, well, it’s up to you.

By the way, Rod Black and Pat Tabler are terrible, worse than terrible — awful.  It’s fucking painful to listen to these idiots speak.  Bring Back Michael Barrett and his clever little anecdotes — he pleasantly surprised me.

Back in 2007, a couple weeks after Mark Teixeira Scott Boras turned down an 8-year / 140M offer from the Texas Rangers, Teixeira was promptly shipped off, alongside Ron Mahay, to the Atlanta Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and a handful of the Braves’ top-prospects.

The deal made sense at the time as Teixeira was expected to re-sign with the Braves for a tidy sum. With Andruw Jones coming off the books, the Braves would have cash to throw around and the possibility of a long-term switch-hitting duo of Chipper and Teixeira would excite anyone.

At the very least, the Braves dealt from their organizational strengths:  Saltalamacchia was a terrific prospect and ranked as the 36th overall prospect by Baseball America, but was blocked at catcher by then 23-year old, Brian McCann.

With Saltalamacchia the centerpiece, the additional pieces were 2 of the remaining 3 Braves’ prospects in the 2006 edition of Baseball America’s Top-100. Elvis Andrus ranked 65th with an ETA of 2010, and Matt Harrison was the 90th best prospect who appeared close to major league ready. The Rangers luckily declined the Braves final top-100 prospect, baby-faced Brent Lillibridge.

The Braves were loaded with pitching prospects (Tommy Hanson, anyone?) and Yunel Escobar and Brent Lillibridge seemed to be capable shortstops negating the loss of the injury-plagued Harrison, and 18-year old Andrus.

In the play-off hunt with Canadian, Scott Thorman, manning first base was a problem for the Braves.  Teixeira was a premiere upgrade at the Braves’ weakest position and although the Braves missed out on the play-offs — it wasn’t that bad of a trade, was it?

Ron Mahay has proven to be a LOOGY to the bitter end and is still pitching moderately well for the Kansas City Royals at not-quite 38-years old.  In 2007, Mahay compiled a 2.25 ERA in 28 Innings for the Atlanta Braves and was generally considered a useful bullpen member.

The Braves gave up two more prospects though, one of which was Beau Jones who’s currently in AA-Frisco as a 22-year old.  Jones has a live arm and has posted around a strike-out per inning at every level thus far.  At the time, Jones impressed with his mid-90′s fastball and solid hook. Baseball America ranked Jones as Atlanta’s 10th best prospect in 2006 and he has a fairly realistic shot at eventually making the show as a number 4 or 5-type guy.

The final prospect was a doozey in Neftali Feliz.  In rookie ball at the time, 18-year old Feliz had garnered some buzz, but wasn’t quite as hyped as some of the other Braves pitching prospects. Scouts saw Feliz’s fastball touch triple digits and were floored, it was just a matter of whether or not he could control his mid-90′s heat. The MiLB is filled with guys that can throw hard but all too often can’t harness their power. Feliz had only thrown 56 Innings for the Braves at that point, but had impressed mightily regardless of his control issues (4+BB/9).

At this point, Feliz was a high-ceiling prospect, nowhere near Baseball America’s  93rd best prospect as he was in 2008,  and definitely not the same pitcher that Baseball America currently ranks as the 10th best prospect in all of baseball.

The ETA of the now 20-year old Feliz shot from 2011 to 2009, over the course of a single year.  Arguably the 4th best prospect in the deal behind Salty, Harrison and Andrus, Neftali Feliz may turn out to be a steal and considering his current trade value; Feliz could already be considered the best value in the deal.

It’s hard not to wonder whether or not Feliz would have been included in the deal if the Braves would have acquired their left-handed bullpen help elsewhere.

We all know how this ends, the Braves didn’t make the playoffs and finished third in the NL East.  Teixeira was awarded a 1-year, 12.5 million dollar arbitration settlement, but was shipped off to the Angels at the deadline after it became clear that a long-term deal wasn’t likely.  Teixeira played out his year, and is now a member of the New York  Yankees…because his wife likes shopping?

In retrospect, the Atlanta Braves obviously gave up too much as they were unable to resign Teixeira.  They did manage to turn Teixeira into Casey Kotchman, and the Angels’ tenth overall prospect in Stephen Marek but that comes nowhere close to negating the loss of Saltalamacchia, Feliz, Harrison, Andrus and Jones.

The hypothetical question still remains: In a standard dynasty league with no limit on years-kept, would you trade Mark Teixeira for the aforementioned Rangers’ haul?

Teixeira, although currently hitting .182 AVG / .354 OBP / .338 SLG for the New York Yankees, is a lock to hit 30 home runs and drive in 100 runs well into his thirties.  In the initial draft of a  12-team dynasty league, Teixeira would go late first round / early second round, as he’s still only 29 years old.

Andrus, the defensively gifted speedster, already has shifted Michael Young to third base and is hitting a respectable .274 in his first big league season.  Andrus is still raw, posting a 0.33 BB:K ratio and a .308 OBP, but he’s already stolen 3 bases without getting caught. In Double-A Frisco last year, Andrus stole 54 bases in 118 Games which lead the projection models to predict anywhere from 29 to 51 stolen bases given starters at-bats. In the potent Texas Rangers’ line-up, Andrus should quickly become an above-average fantasy contributor based solely on his SB & R potential.

Saltalamacchia, after an injury plagued 2008 effort, seems to be back on track — well, sort of.  Saltalamacchia, a switch-hitting catcher, has always sported an above-average eye; generally keeping his BB% on the right side of 10%.  In 2009 thus far, Saltalamacchia is hitting a respectable .279, but has only walked 5% of the time while striking out nearly 35% of the time. Saltalamacchia’s line of .279 AVG / .313 OBP / .443 SLG is driven up by his ridiculously lucky .395 BABIP and regression should be expected. Saltalamacchia hasn’t come close to fulfilling expectations, but continues to hold off Taylor Teagarden and Max Ramirez. Saltalamacchia is still only 24-years old and should continue to improve. Saltalamacchia isn’t among the elite fantasy catchers, but considering his age, he still should rank somewhere around the top-12 dynasty league catchers.

The Rangers couldn’t have dreamt of a better progression for Neftali Feliz.  As mentioned earlier, Feliz has tremendous stuff and is well-deserving of Baseball America’s 10th overall prospect label.

In deeper keeper leagues or dynasty leagues with a minor league system, Neftali is a must-own.  Playing in Arlington should temper expectations, but he still has a dirty repitoire. Of Baseball America’s top-20 prospects, Number 10 Feliz sits in admirable company: Number 2 – David Price, Number 4 – Tommy Hanson, Number 7 – Brett Anderson, Number 9 – Madison Bumgarner, and Number 11 – Trevor Cahill.

Feliz should see some action late this year as a September call-up, so long as Texas doesn’t miraculously stick around in the playoff hunt.  Expecting dominance this year may  be a stretch, but Feliz could be dominant as soon as late next year.

Finally, onto Beau Jones and Matt Harrison, the final two peices in the deal.  Unless you’re in a 50-team dynasty league, you’re probably forgetting about Jones and Harrison.  You should probably keep an eye on the intriguing Matt Harrison though. Harrison’s had some elbow issues and 2009 hasn’t  been pretty, but the talent’s still there. Harrison’s a four-pitch pitcher featuring 91mph fastball, 86mph slider, 76mph curveball, and an 82mph change-up.  At this point, his ERA is north of 6.00 and he’s only managed to strike out 12 batters which matches the number he’s walked, in 26 Innings Pitched.

Saltalamacchia and Harrison were arguably the two biggest pieces to the original Teixeira trade, but to this point have been overshadowed by the massive potential of Andrus and Feliz.

In a deep keeper league of 14 teams or more, Teixeira for Feliz, Andrus, Saltalamacchia and Harrison would be an interesting one to say the least.  Anything under 14-teams and you probably have to lean the way of Teixeira because of that old saying, “a bird in the basket is worth two in the bush, ” or put in language that we can understand: ” a girl in the sac is worth ten numbers in your pocket. ”

In keeper leagues, prospects are nice and all but it never turns out the way it should.

Some Readings:

Rangers Happy With Teixeira Trade Returns, MLB.com

Rangers Future Bright Thanks To Teixeira Trade, MySanAntonio.com

Baseball America’s Top 100 (2009) (2008) (2007)

Braves trade Teixeira for Kotchman, ESPN.

Jose Guillen is bound to be one of the more popular pick-ups on Monday after his 4 RBI Sunday afternoon against Scott Baker and the Minnesota Twins. Over the past week, Jose Guillen’s hit .357 with 3 HR and 10 RBI and has seen his Yahoo! ownership increase to 19% — Yes, Jose Guillen is a bad, bad man.  If you already know Jose’s enjoyable history, you can skip the next couple paragraphs and go directly to his fantasy analysis.

First off, I’ll make this clear: I adore Jose Guillen  because you really have no clue what you’re going to get from him. Much like Milton Bradley, another favourite of mine, you could get anything from an All-Star to an Axe Murderer.

When my girlfriend and I snagged our first ever Major League Baseball, it was Jose Guillen that hung around and signed it.  Later Joey, I jump over cars, Gathright signed it as well. 

The story behind Jose Guillen is a long and complicated one, but he’s been on 9 different teams since he broke into the Majors in 1997 and hasn’t stayed with the same team longer than 2 years.  Guillen was also named in the Mitchell Report, after he allegedly purchased  steroids and HGH from a Florida Pharmacy:

The San Francisco Chronicle published a story linking Guillen to the purchase of more than $19,000 worth of steroids and human-growth hormone between May 2002 and June 2005.

In addition to the steroid use, Guillen’s had more than a couple run-ins with hecklers at the ballpark.  Check out Joey Gathright run in to stop Jose Guillen from more than likely beheading a fan that was heckling Guillen in the Royals home stadium.

Guillen also straight-up bitched Mike Scioscia when his current team, the Washington Nationals, played his former team, the Anaheim Angels, in inter-league play.  Upset at being left off the post-season roster and then traded by the Angels, Guillen told Nationals Coach, Frank Robinson, to ask the umpire to check Brendan Donnelly’s glove for any illegal substances — The ump found pine-tar. Guillen later admitted that he’d snitched, and went on an epic rant about Mike Scioscia being a little bitch:

He was talking to me last year about respect and class and how we have to move on, I don’t care really much about Mike Scioscia.

I have no respect for him any more, because I’m still hurt from what happened last year. Mike Scioscia to me is like a piece of garbage. I don’t care if I get in trouble. He can go to hell.

Finally, in one of my favourite moments of the 2008 season, Guillen went on a profanity laced tirade about his  Royals teammates during a 12-game losing streak:

“Too many fucking babies here. They don’t know how to fucking play the fucking game and win the game right, the way it’s supposed to be fucking played. And that’s the problem here. Now I know why this organization’s been losing for a while. Now I fucking know.”

But you’ve got to love Guillen for standing up for his coach, Trey Hillman. Guillen continued the rant by saying, “He [Hillman] cares more than anyone here about winning, That guy cares. Every single day. It’s killing him. We’ve just got to be smart and know what we need to do to win games. That’s it. There’s too many guys that won’t do this, do that, like they’ve given up, like they don’t care.”

I’m sure plenty of baseball purists dislike Jose Guillen, but you’ve got to admit that he’s entertaining as fuck, and equally as honest.

Jose Guillen’s Fantasy Impact

Prior to today’s home run and 4 RBI effort, Jose Guillen was batting .262 AVG / .326 OBP / .429 SLG, which is in-line with his career averages.

Jose Guillen will never hit for a great average, but .275 is a fair expectation given his track record (.273 Career AVG, .294 Career Max.)  So long as Guillen can maintain a solid average, he’ll help you in 3 of the 5 roto categories without hurting you too much, which is outstanding for a late-round draft pick or waiver-wire pick-up.

After playing 153 Games in each of his last two years, Guillen’s managed to top 95 RBI in both seasons.  Assuming Kansas City’s offense is at least mildly improved, Guillen should also score somewhere between 70 and 80 runs. When coupled with Guillen’s 20-30 HR power, you’ve got yourself a ball player with a fairly high-ceiling.

Plate discipline has never been Guillen’s strong-suit and in the early going he continues to chase pitches out of the zone. Pitchers are either being careful or have caught onto Guillen’s tendencies as he’s seeing a mere 43% of pitches in the zone.  This number should trend upwards to Guillen’s average of 50% even if Guillen refuses to take a walk.

Guillen’s proven the ability to function at a high-level with poor plate discipline, so to predict a drastic decline seems presumptive.  Guillen’s swinging at fewer pitches in general, both inside and outside of the zone.  It’s Guillen’s lack of contact (8% decrease, ) which is probably a direct result of minor injuries, that has rendered him a terrific waiver-wire or buy-low candidate.

Regardless of how it occurs, Guillen should start seeing more strikes and making solid contact as the season progresses.  Guillen will generally have trouble with control pitchers, but if a pitcher makes a mistake like Scott Baker did today, Guillen will make sound contact.

Considering the starters that Guillen has faced (Beurhle, Danks, Floyd, Galarraga, Perkins, Slowey, Purcey, Richmond,  Tallet and Baker, ) it’s no surprise he hasn’t smash-killed the ball to this point.  As Guillen works his way through the harder throwing / mistake-prone pitchers in the league, he should continue to improve across the board.

Guillen will have issues staying healthy, as seen by his recent hip-flexor / groin injury, which will rob Guillen of a lot of his natural (or chemically aided) potency. Although Guillen is generally an ass, he’s also a gamer that’ll play through minor injuries which chip away at his effectiveness.  While this is great for the Kansas City Royals and their 3-year / 36-Million dollar investment, it’s bad for fantasy owners.

If you pick up Guillen, you’ll have to monitor his injury situation fairly carefully.  The pay-off is absolutely worth the risk though as you could be provided with a 25+ HR / 100 RBI season from a free-agent you picked off the waiver-wire.

Today, we’ll do the Top-10 (ish) most dropped guys in an ESPN league.

Most Dropped

1. Ryan Doumit – C | PIT – Why? Injured

   Ryan Doumit broke his wrist in the fourth inning of Pittsburgh’s April 19th game and the prognosis doesn’t look good.  The wrist required surgery, and MLB.com reports that Doumit is looking to miss at least 8 weeks. The Pirates hand and wrist specialist, Dr. Mark Baratz, notes that Doumit broke a bone in his wrist that receives poor blood supply, and natural healing was out of the question.

   Prediction: This one’s a tough one:  Doumit’s one of the better catcher options after the fab-five of McCann, Mauer, Martin, Martinez and Soto, but this doesn’t sound good.  Assuming Doumit heals quickly and only misses the minimum 8 to 10 weeks, he’ll still have to battle atrophy in the wrist.  We’re pretty much looking at a full 3 months until Doumit will return to full effectiveness.  Doumit will provide a much needed boost in H2H leagues come play-off time, if you can stash him on your DL.   There is however the question of what you’ll do with Doumit after he comes off the DL, but before he returns to full health.

2. Ubaldo Jiminez – SP | COL – Why? Cold Streak

   When you’re record’s sitting at 1-3 with an ERA north of 7.00, you’re probably looking at getting dropped. Even Ubaldo Jiminez’s 95.1mph average fastball cannot redeem those numbers.  Although Jiminez was recently passed by Justin Verlander, he’s still a good bet to finish the season with a league-leading average fastball velocity.

   Rotowire’s also reporting that Jiminez has tweaked his mechanics:

   Update: Jimenez believes that he has fixed the mechanical glitch that negatively impacted his performance during his last start, the Denver Post reports.

   Recommendation: His left shoulder was flying open and his left foot was out of line as well. “My arm couldn’t catch up,” Jimenez said. “But I will be fine.” After shining in his season debut against the D-Backs, Jimenez has failed to get through the fifth inning in each of his last two starts while issuing 10 walks during that span.

   Prediction: After a stellar first outing where Jiminez went seven scoreless innings and struck out eight Diamondbacks, he’s yet to get through five.  If Jiminez was drafted in your league rather than a waiver-wire claim, I wouldn’t rush to judgment quite yet.  Jiminez’s lack-luster outings have come against the Cubs and Dodgers and while he’s having trouble finding the zone, he’s still the potential-packed pitcher that you drafted.  If you can afford to hold onto Jiminez without starting him for another week or two, definitely do so. However, Rather than focusing on Jiminez’s ERA and K’s, base your opinion on whether or not Ubaldo continues walking batters.  Jiminez can be effectively wild at 4BB per 9, but not at his current rate of 8 BB / 9.

3. Emilio Bonifacio – UTIL| FLA – Why? Cold-Streak

   I’m not sure why, but Chris Shelton will forever be THAT guy. The guy who goes from 5 percent ownership to 95% ownership in under one week.  Emilio Bonifacio appears to be 2009′s version of Shelton and people are already tossing him back to the waiver-wire.    However, there may be a reason to keep Bonifacio around in the right league, a very deep league.  Bonifacio clearly has speed potential, and Freddi Gonzalez has shown a willingness to bat him atop a stacked Marlins order.  Bonifacio really only has to do one thing to succeed: Get his ass on base.  Unfortunately, there’s nothing to show that Bonifacio can legitimately get on base at anything more than 30% of the time.  Cameron Maybin lead off Sunday with Bonifacio getting a day off, which isn’t good news — Luckily, Maybin wasted the opportunity going 0-fer with 3 strikeouts.

   Prediction: Bonfiacio really only has post an OBP of .335-.340ish to be useful in most leagues.  Unfortunately, there’s absolutely nothing to show that Bonifacio is capable of getting on-base at that clip.  If the Marlins wanted someone to strike out over 25% of the time, they should have just kept Dallas McPherson around.

4. Huston Street – RP | COL – Why? Cold-Streak

   This got ugly in a hurry. Sure, Street’s still striking out a batter per inning, but it probably has more to do with even the light-hitting players swinging balls-to-the-wall at every pitch Street throws.  Street’s currently the proud owner of a 7.88 ERA and only one SV.
   

   Prediction: Corpas and Grilli have both notched saves.  As I’m Canadian, I’ve yet to acknowledge that a certain Italian RP exists in space and time, even if the WBC ended months ago — The Job’s Corpas’ even though his 6.48 ERA isn’t much prettier than Street’s

5. Chien Ming Wang – SP | NYY – Why? Awful/Injured

   Wang’s been fairly terrible, and early reports show that it’s probably just an issue of strength and conditioning. Wang’s lost velocity across the board, and has barely used his slider.  With Wang’s recent DL stint, and Phil Hughes getting the call, this could get interesting down the road.

   Prediction: If you can stash Wang on your DL, you’ve got to do it.  Even if this means dropping a player like Ryan Doumit.  Wang’s injury doesn’t appear to be an injury at all, but rather a case of hanging out with C.C. and eating too many donuts.  As Wang builds up his strength, his effectiveness should increase.  Wang wont notch the K’s, but a ground-ball rightie in Yankee stadium should find a way to get back into the rotation.  Stash the Wanger, and monitor his velocity when he comes back.

6. Mike Aviles – SS | KCR – Why? Cold-Streak

   Whenever you consider a player without a proven track-record, try your best to view him without the high-average.  How will Freddy Sanchez and Mike Aviles perform when they’re not hitting better than .300? Mike’s seen his luck drastically change from 2008 to 2009. In 2008, Mike  Aviles had a .359 BABIP; Fast Forward and Aviles is now sitting at a .208 BABIP.

   Prediction: Looking to the other side of the ADDED/DROPPED page, I see me some Asdrubal Cabrera.  I had Cabrera and Aviles right next to each other to open the season, and thing’s really haven’t changed.  Whether or not I’d drop Aviles straight up for Cabrera would probably depend on what I had for breakfast that day. Aviles will get better, but will be limited by his vomit-worthy BB:K ratio of 0.07! …and you thought last year’s 0.30 BB:K was bad.

7. Orlando Cabrera – SS | OAK – Why? Oakland Can’t Hit?

   After spending all of that CASH-MONEY this off-season, the Athletics still can’t hit. Matt Holliday’s .091 Isolated Power is the stuff low-budget horror movies are made of.

   Prediction: Pick up Cabrera. If anyone pulls off the role of “I-does-what-I-does-and-I-does-it-well!” It’s Orlando Cabrera.  He’s coming off of 3 straight seasons of 600+ AB, and he’ll contribute across the board. Cabrera’s BABIP currently sits in the low-.200′s and the Athletics are bound to eventually heat up.  I wouldn’t expect White Sox-type Run and RBI totals, but no-one expected them going into this year.

8. Randy Winn – OF | SFG – Why? Slow Start

   I am not a Randy Winn fan.  He’ll never find his way onto any of my fantasy teams, and I’ll never endorse him.

   Prediction: With that said, if you drafted Randy Winn — Why the hell are you dropping him?  Do you really think he’ll finish the season hitting in the low-200′s?  Randy Winn has shown that he’s a .300 hitter since joining the Giants.  There’s the possibility of him stealing 20 bases and hitting 10-15 HR.  If the next guy on this list did something like that, you’d be busting a nut.  I figured it out, I dislike the GIANTS, not just Randy Winn.   Sorry, Randy.

9. Cameron Maybin – OF | FLA – Why? Cold-Streak

   Debating whether or not Cameron Maybin is a premiere prospect will be left for another day.  I cannot see into the future, but I can peer into the past, and guess what I see?  Maybin strikes out way too much, and hasn’t exactly shown the ability to get on base at a consistent clip:  He’s currently batting .189 with a .271 OBP.  Everyone’s eyeing this kid’s ceiling, rather than looking at how he’ll produce this year.

   Prediction: His 8 Percent BB-Rate is nice, but he’s really gotta cut down on those strike-outs.  He just looks over matched.  Florida’s in desperate need of a lead-off hitter at this point though, and as mentioned earlier, Maybin lead-off yesterday.  Like Bonifacio, Maybin’s just gotta get that OBP to .345-.350ish and everything will click.  Unlike Bonifacio, I think Maybin has a realistic shot of eventually doing it.  Maybin only has 1 steal so far, but I’ll withhold judgment for another week, maybe two. If someone drops Maybin to pick up Endy Chavez, or Nyjer Morgan — I’m picking him up.

10. Milton Bradley – OF | CHC – Why? Injury

    Milton Bradley’s one of the larger headaches in Major League Baseball, but he’s also a must own in any league that uses OBP, SLG, or OPS.  With that said, Bradley’s already ruffling feathers in Chicago with his media boycott. He also revealed through the Cubs.com website that he wasn’t close to returning to full-form and was still dealing with a nagging groin injury.

    Prediction: This one’s interesting to say the least.  Going into the season, I figured Bradley might have some issues with playing the outfield on a daily basis and ranked him lower than his talent warranted.  You can, however, overlook Bradley’s .043 Batting Average prior to the injury.  Obviously, if you can stash Milton Bradley, that’s probably the route you should go.  If you have to devote a Bench Spot to the injured Bradley, I’d put this at a 50/50 ADD/DROP situation.  When Bradley comes back he’ll mash, but you’ll have to deal with frequent trips to the DL.  If you’re doing well thus far in your league, and can carry dead-weight — Bradley’s a solid bet.

11. Edwin Encarnacion – 3B | CIN – Why? Cold-Streak

    You knew Edwin wasn’t going to hit for a great average when you drafted him. His .136 AVG and 30% strike-out rate definitely aren’t pretty but there’s hope on the horizon: Edwin Encarnacion is walking at almost a 20% clip.  Good news! Unfortunately, Edwin’s not making solid contact posting a 1.40 GB/FB rate, to go along with a steep drop in overall contact percentage (68.5%.)

    Prediction: I’m still high as a kite on Edwin Encarnacion, but it looks like he may be battling an injury. Of all the players on the Dropped-List, Edwin’s my first pick up with O-Cab filling the 2-hole.

Brian Burress and his brand-spankin’ new 12.76 ERA and 2.54 WHIP will not be included in this article.  The main benefactor, Alexei Ramirez and his 5RBI, will also be left out of this discussion.

In case you haven’t figured out by now, the Jays are my home squad and while they’re not my favourite club — I manage to watch at least a few innings of each game.

As always, the small-sample size warning is in effect, but here are your Toronto Blue Jays with some quick analysis and statistics that stand out, at least to me.

1. Marco Scutaro – SS – 69 AB -  .275 AVG – 4 HR – 18 R – 11 RBI – 1 SB

   • 1.45 BB:K Ratio – Scutaro’s posted a career best, and is getting on base at a ridiculous clip
   • .414 OBP - could you ask for anything more in an under-priced lead-off hitter?
   • Scutaro’s also barely swinging and when he does swing, he’s making ridiculously high contact
   • Conclusion - Scutaro’s still terribly undervalued, but there’s no way he keeps up his torrid pace.  Expect his .920 OPS to come down to the .790 OPS range.

2. Aaron Hill – 2B -  83 AB - .373 AVG – 5 HR – 13 R – 18 RBI – 1 SB

   • Healthy, Finally Healthy. This is the most important point with Hill.
   • 1.024 OPS and .253 ISO – This will fall in line as other statistics regress…
   • .388 BABIP - …and this’ll be the reason.  Hill should be sitting around .310ish.
   • 17.9 HR/FB – This’ll also help.  Hill hasn’t topped 9% HR/FB in his career, and even an optimistic projection will put him somewhere around 11 or 12 %
   • Conclusion – Aaron’s going to be an above average second basemen this year, with the possibility of competing with someone like Dan Uggla.  He won’t match Uggla’s power numbers, but he wont kill your Batting Average. The Run and RBI totals also look good for Hill this year.

3. Alex Rios – RF – 77 AB -  .247 AVG – 1 HR – 10 R – 12 RBI – 2 SB

   • .295 BABIP - Rios generally sports a higher than normal BABIP, and it should eventually come up to the .320-range. Last year Rios posted a .335 BABIP.
   • 4.8 HR / FB - The Polar Opposite of Aaron Hill.  They both should end up somewhere around the league average of 11 or 12 percent.
   • 23.4 In Field Fly Ball Percent – Rios shouldn’t be anywhere near this high, and this isn’t one of the lucky/unlucky indicators.  Rios was just off to start the year, and he’s starting to turn it around.
   • Conclusion - Still a tremendous talent, but his draft value assumed he’d develop some power to go with his stolen base potential.  I’d expect an improvement in Rios’ counting stats, which should make up for a slight decline in SB numbers.  Once the Jays  stop hitting, Rios may start running a lot more. A 20-20 season is a very real possibility, but 30-30 is asking a bit too much. I’m buying Rios at 90-95 cents on the dollar.

4. Vernon Wells – CF – 75 AB – .280 AVG – 3 HR – 15 R – 9 RBI – 3 SB

   • .300 AVG – Wells hasn’t reached these numbers for a couple years
   • .269 BABIP – …and he’s not just getting ass-faced lucky either
   • 42.3% FB and .97 GB/FB Ratio - Wells was nowhere near these numbers last year and this is a return to the Vernon Wells Hey-Day.
   • Conclusion – Everything looks great for Vernon, and I’m definitely buying it.  His predictor stats are starting to fall in line with the ones he posted during his career years.  The only concern with Vernon is his injury history.

5. Adam Lind – DH – 72 AB – .347 AVG – 3 HR – 13 R – 15 RBI – 0 SB

   • .423 BABIP – Al Pacino says, “H00 – Haah!”   Adam Lind is primed for some regression
   • 24% LD Rate — Lind doesn’t possess your typical uppercut swing, and is more of a doubles machine.  He’s increased his line-drive rate 3 percent all of which has come from his GB rate.
   • 18.8 HR / FB - Lind should eventually regress to league average, or somewhere around 12%
   • 10% BB Rate – This is a huge improvement for Lind, and his plate discipline in generally is up.
   • 51 % First Pitch Strike Percentage - This is down 13 percent from previous years.
   • Conclusion – There’s some good, some bad, and some ugly with Adam Lind.  You’ve got to expect regression, but Lind’s plate approach is stellar.  Lind’s not a top-50 guy over the course of the season, but he could easily crack the top-80 or top-100.  Lind could easily pop his head into Ryan Ludwick land, even after all of the regressions.  Just be sure to keep an eye on his plate approach — if he starts pressing, it’ll show up there first.

6. Scott Rolen – 3B – 63 AB- .317 AVG – 2 HR – 10 R – 7 RBI – 0 SB

   • .317 BA - After two years of hitting in the .260- range, Rolen’s found himself a time-machine.  The big thing with Rolen is definitely his health, and I really can’t see him staying healthy all year.
   • 9.5 K Rate – This blows my mind, and really confirms the fact that Rolen is probably as healthy as he’s going to get. Rolen gradually reduced his K rate during his time with the Cardinals, and this is the logical in the progression of an aging power hitter. I’d prefer to see an older slugger understand the aging process, rather than swinging for the fences even after his power’s been robbed.
   • Conclusion - In Deep Leagues, ride Rolen while he’s hot.  He’ll end up injured soon enough, as the Rogers Centre surface is anything but friendly to veterans. I wouldn’t be expecting a return to greatness, as Rolen’s still not making terrific contact, but he’ll be serviceable.

7. Lyle Overbay – 1B – 42 AB - .310 AVG – 3 HR – 7 R – 10 RBI – 0 SB

   • 42 AB – At this point, Overbay is splitting time with Kevin Millar.  Cito maintains that it’s not a platoon, but it’s really starting to look that way.
   • 2.17 BB:K Rate – Overbay is taking a lot of walks  (23.6% BB Rate) and it’ll pay off assuming that he’s got hitters batting behind him. Overbay’s plate discipline has improved across the board.  If Overbay ever finds his way to the top of the line-up, he could prove to be quite useful in deeper leagues.
   • 52.8% GB Rate – Unfortunately, as we all know, Overbay doesn’t bring the kind of power you’d hope for in a Corner Infielder.  While this sample-size is tiny, Overbay’s hitting far too many ground-balls (19 in total, thus far.)
   • Conclusion – In deeper leagues monitor Overbay’s spot in the line-up as he could provide half-decent production.

8. Travis Snider - LF – 42 AB – .310 AVG – 3 HR – 8 R – 10 RBI – 1 SB

   • 42AB - Same deal as Overbay, except Snider’s splitting time with Jose Bautista in left-field.  Cito’s going to have to hit Snider against lefties sooner or later, or the youngster will lose his confidence.  Wearing kids gloves while handling youngsters is always a wise idea though.
   • .357 BABIP – It’s not like we should expect regression; Snider’s posted high BABIP at every level.  I just wanted to make a note of that in case some foo’ told you he was getting lucky. This number’s actually perfectly in line with Bill James’ projection model for Travis Snider.
   • 5 BB - Snider’s already matched his walk total from 2008, in 5/8ths of the plate appearances.  Snider’s 10% BB rate is nice, but Snider still appears to be pressing from time to time.
   • Conclusion - Snider has some interesting numbers, but I’m going to write most of them off as random fluctuations.  I wouldn’t expect Snider to continue hitting 52% Fly-Balls compared to merely 10% line-drives.

9. Rod Barajas - C – 52 AB – .250 AVG – 2 HR – 5 R – 9 RBI – 0 SB

   • 0.30 GB/FB – Barajas is one of the few Jays that has yet to click.  Barajas is getting under the ball a lot, but I wouldn’t worry:  he’ll eventually finish close enough to his career average of .60 GB/FB.
   • 67.9 Fastball Percent - It really looks like pitchers are challenging Barajas this year, and he hasn’t quite caught up to the fastball.  He’ll adapt with time, so long as the Jays don’t trot him out there *too* often.
   • Conclusion - Barajas has been bating pretty late in the order, but the order has exceeded everyone’s expectations.  In two catcher leagues, Barajas is a viable option but otherwise I’d probably avoid him in most other leagues.  Unless of course you can stomach his .250 batting average.

…and that is that, maybe I’ll get around to doing the Jays Pitchers tomorrow but with so many of them currently injured, I’m not sure it’ll be worth it.

As always, thanks to fangraphs.com for their lovely website.