Fantasy Baseball

The Fantasy Baseball Perfect Point System: Pitchers

Yesterday, we cycled through the hitters on our way to creating the perfect point system.  Everything worked out dandy, so it’s onto the pitchers today.

A Quick Note: these rankings do not take into account scarcity, which we’ll get into when I rank the players.  Simply applying the formula by itself to rank players will give you the best players, but you’ll end up with 10 SP and no RP.

Wins:

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	16.4	17.6	17.3	16.5	17.2
TOP-5	18.6	20.4	19.2	18	20.4
MAX	19	22	20	19	22

This is probably the easiest to predict because it remains pretty static from year to year.

Weighted Average: 19.2 Wins

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE WIN:  5.21

Strike-Outs:

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	211.7	197.5	199.65	191.3	195.1
TOP-5	247	224.4	230.6	219.4	217.2
MAX	269	265	240	245	238

Weighted Average: 233

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE STRIKE-OUT:  0.43

Saves:

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	36.1	35.4	36.5	35.5	38.55
TOP-5	44	46	43.6	42.4	44.6
MAX	48	62	47	47	47

Weighted Average: 44.2

Small Adjustment for K-Rod’s ridiculous 2008 season.

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE SV:  2.23

IP:

This is where we end up with a bit of a head-ache, at least in terms of explaining it.  IP is used in both WHIP and ERA, and will be split up like this, although it doesn’t really matter.

One Inning Pitched when calculating WHIP = 0.95

One Inning Pitched when calculating ERA = 0.90

One Inning Pitched is worth 1.85

Walks and Hits:

Now we have to start penalizing the things we don’t like.  Walks and Hits are equal when it comes to WHIP in Roto & H2H; so they’re equal here too.

One Walk or Hit is Worth: NEGATIVE 0.5

Earned Runs:

Earned runs follow the same pattern as WHIP and show just how dominant Zach Greinke’s was in the 2009 season.  Not only did he have a 2.16 ERA, but he did it over 230 IP.  It’s almost exactly on par with Roger Clemens’ 1.87 ERA over 211 IP in 2005.

One Earned Run  is Worth: NEGATIVE 1.5

2005 Perfect Pitcher Results

2006 Perfect Pitcher Results

2007 Perfect Pitcher Results

2008 Perfect Pitcher Results

2009 Perfect Pitcher Results

Fantasy Baseball

Elijah Dukes, Man Crush, Recalled From The ‘Cuse.

Entering the year, everyone knew that Washington was going to have some serious problems with their rotation but, at the very least, their offense was going to be respectable.

Jim Bowden had assembled some terrific young talent, and brought in a couple key free agents.  Unfortunately, the Washington Nationals found a way to let their premiere talent waste away on the bench, or in the minors, while trotting out league average scrubs day in, and day out.

To many, it appeared as though Bowden was building a fantasy baseball squad, where Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham would fill the UTIL spots while Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Corey Patterson, Willie Harris and Austin Kearns would split time in the outfield.

Elijah Dukes looked to have broken through in 2008, leaving the past behind, and becoming an actual ball-player.  Dukes’ was a terrific power/speed guy that managed to get on base at a .386-clip in 2008 — things were lookin’ up.

Lastings Milledge had a realistic shot at 20 HR / 20 SB this year, but we all know how that turned out.  Everyone understands that the kid doesn’t listen, won’t take a walk, and strikes out too much, but the talent is definitely there.

So rather than giving these two legitimate shots of improving as ball-players, the Washington Nationals decided that 30-year old Josh Willingham, and 29-year old Austin Kearns were going to be the future of their franchise.

Willingham has had a spectacular year, posting a .300 AVG /.412 OBP/.933 OPS slash-line in 2009, but he’s also the proud owner of a .329 BABIP and 20% HR/FB ratio.   When we look at 2009, we’re looking at Josh Willingham’s ceiling as a ballplayer.

Austin Kearns has been under the Mendoza line for almost the entire year, but has still managed 210 plate appearances.

Nyjer Morgan, acquired in the Milledge-deal,  provides a nice little spark plug and an unholy defensive improvement, but why are the Nationals trading for outfielders to begin with?

Jim Bowden and Manny Acta are both gone now, but they’ve left one hell of a mess. A mess that Mike Rizzo is attempting to clean up by trading Nick Johnson, who’s departure essentially freed up an outfield spot as Adam Dunn slid over to first base.

With that said, Elijah Dukes has found himself recalled to the Big Club.  It was around this time last year that Elijah Dukes started to catch fire and absolutely rake.  In 2009, much like 2008, it’ll probably come down to AB’s and not much else.  Dukes destroyed AAA pitching over the past month, posting a 1.13 BB/K ratio to compliment his .943 OPS.

Last night against the Pirates, Riggleman trotted Dukes out in the number six spot.  It’s a great spot for Dukes, hitting after Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham, and should increase his RBI numbers substantially.  He may have the Catcher (Bard/Flores,) Second Baseman (Hernandez/Gonzalez,) and Pitcher hitting after him, but at least he’s not forced to hit after Christian Guzman and his .322 OBP.

At the start of the season, I predicted that Elijah Dukes and Washington’s incredibly solid offense would put up fairly surprising numbers.  Little did I know that Dukes would find his ass on the bench, and then in the Minors.  I’m still not ready to admit that I was wrong because there’s no explanation for the shit-show that went down in Washington but I’d recommend picking up Elijah Dukes as soon as possible, especially if he starts getting regular at-bats.

I’m left to wonder what kind of numbers Dukes would be sitting on if Acta had shown enough trust in him to give him regular at-bats.  The Nationals have the worst pitching in the league by a country mile, and I’ll never be able to wrap my head around why the Manager and General Manager didn’t let their young guys play.

Maybe I’m just clinging to the past, unable to admit that I was simply incorrect.

Fantasy Baseball

Protecting The Young!

This was going to be a simple article recommending Colby Rasmus and then jerking off his ego for a bit.  It’s still a good idea to go and pick up Colby Rasmus, especially if you’re the type to monitor rosters on a daily basis.  Colby Rasmus, like almost every other youngster, is handled with kiddie gloves when it comes to platooning. While I understand that putting the best line-up on the field is the manager’s job, I’m not completely sold on the premise that sitting a young player against a same-handed pitcher aids his development.  I’m more of a “throw ‘em to the wolves and see what happens” type of person.  Of course Rasmus is going to only hit .116 against lefties when he’s only faced them 43 times, and has rarely seen the same lefty twice in one game.  Baseball folk claim that sitting them will increase confidence, but I can’t fathom how showing a lack of confidence in a hitter increases their confidence.

This practice is definitely not limited to just Colby Rasmus; it pretty much spans every non-switching hitting uber-prospect.  Like Colby Rasmus, Travis Snider only saw 16 AB in 15 G against left handed pitching. Even if it’s a small sample size, Snider did manage to hit .313 in those 16 AB.  Jordan Schafer wasn’t ready, but he too only saw 52 AB in 27 games against lefties.  Carlos Gonzalez hasn’t been up long, but he too has only seen 4 AB in 4 games against same-handed pitchers.  Gerardo Parra rounds out the tentative list of top-100 prospects that simply do not get to face left handed pitching.

Can it be good for a young player to know that he’s sitting every time a left-hander starts?  Watching Travis Snider earlier this year was painful, as his frustration shone through.  There was no way that he was getting into a schedule and in turn, looked terrible against lefties and righties alike.  Strangely enough, he was sent down to the minors to get every day at-bats.  Whether you agree or disagree with the practice doesn’t particularly matter when gauging a player’s fantasy value.  You just have to know who sits, and when they sit.

If you’ve got a solid bench player, Colby Rasmus is entering must-own territory.  Against righties, Rasmus is hitting .331 with a .365 OBP and a .561 slugging percentage, which is good for a .926 OPS.  These are numbers that play in almost every league, even if his counting stats don’t match ‘em at this point. LaRussa still has Skip Schumaker leading off, but has let Colby Rasmus bat second 4 of the past 5 games. For obvious reasons, batting directly in front of Albert Pujols is beneficial.  If Rasmus can keep up his hot hitting against righties, his counting statistics which are currently pretty average, should sky-rocket.

Rasmus is going to have to start adapting shortly as he’s now been up long enough for pitchers to have fairly precise scouting reports.  He’s currently sitting below a 6% BB which will have to change if he plans on being successful through September.  There’s definitely a lot of risk associated with Rasmus, any youngster for that matter, but as a plug-and-play candidate against righties, Rasmus brings very solid value to the table. In the end, Rasmus should show some regression, as he’s been getting slightly lucky on his balls-in-play but that should be off-set by him running a little bit more.  There’s no reason why an athlete the calibre of Colby Rasmus shouldn’t be allowed at least a shot at stealing 10 bases

Fantasy Baseball

Doc, I’m Scared.

As a Blue Jays fan, I’m scared.  If you’re a Roy Halladay owner, you should share my trepidation.  Not because Roy Halladay has been lack-luster, he has won 9 games, but rather because he’s been too damn good.  Last night Roy Halladay notched 14 strike-outs for a career best, while limiting the Angels to four runs and earning himself the complete-game victory.  An extended home-half of the sixth really threw Halladay out of sync, and Roy allowed all four of his runs in the top-half of the seventh.  Who know’s how great Halladay’s final line could have been if the Jays had went 1-2-3 in their half of the sixth…

Anyways, this is why I’m worried if I’m a Halladay owner:

1. Cito Gaston trotted Roy Halladay out there for 133 pitches last night, almost unheard of now-a-days.
2. Roy Halladay leads the league in pitches thrown by a country mile at 1304.  Big Kevin Millwood sits second, a full 94 pitches behind Roy.
3. Halladay also leads the league in Innings Pitched at 91, nine full innings more than #2 Zack Greinke. Halladay’s thrown 2 complete games, 3 eight-inning games and seven seven-inning games.  Halladay’s yet to pitch 7 full  innings in 12 GS.
4. Halladay is throwing a lot of cutters, even more than last year, which aren’t the friendliest pitch for a pitchers elbow.  This is what I’d like to look into a bit more…

Fangraphs.com is reporting that Halladay’s throwing a cutter a full-45% of the time, averaging 90-91mph.  This is a huge increase in last year’s 33% and an astronomical increase over the 25% he threw the year before.  Currently, Halladay’s throwing 30% fastballs and 24% curveballs, to go along with that 45% Cutter Rate.

While I can’t speculate on the grip that Halladay’s using, it appears as though Halladay’s throwing about 70% of what could be considered “injury-elevating” pitches.

The rather large cluster of both Green and Black in the middle are fastballs with some degree of cut on them.  The left side green cluster are  four seam fastballs with a few two-seamers, towards the bottom of the graph in greeny-blue. The point here is that Halladay is throwing about as many four-seam fastballs as he’s throwing curveballs, and using cutters almost 50% of the time.

Halladay has had some fluke injuries, but he’s also had shoulder surgery in 2004 and forearm problems in 2006 when he first started really using his cutter.  Eitherway, as a Jays fan — I’m worried. As a fantasy owner, well, it’s up to you.

By the way, Rod Black and Pat Tabler are terrible, worse than terrible — awful.  It’s fucking painful to listen to these idiots speak.  Bring Back Michael Barrett and his clever little anecdotes — he pleasantly surprised me.

Fantasy Baseball

Keeper League Talk: The Mark Teixeira Trade Revisited.

Back in 2007, a couple weeks after Mark Teixeira Scott Boras turned down an 8-year / 140M offer from the Texas Rangers, Teixeira was promptly shipped off, alongside Ron Mahay, to the Atlanta Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and a handful of the Braves’ top-prospects. Read more

Fantasy Baseball

Jose Guillen Is A Bad, Bad Man.

Jose Guillen is bound to be one of the more popular pick-ups on Monday after his 4 RBI Sunday afternoon against Scott Baker and the Minnesota Twins. Over the past week, Jose Guillen’s hit .357 with 3 HR and 10 RBI and has seen his Yahoo! ownership increase to 19% — Yes, Jose Guillen is a bad, bad man.  If you already know Jose’s enjoyable history, you can skip the next couple paragraphs and go directly to his fantasy analysis. Read more

Fantasy Baseball

ESPN Added/Dropped Analysis – Top 10 Dropped

Today, we’ll do the Top-10 (ish) most dropped guys in an ESPN league.

Most Dropped

Read more

Fantasy Baseball

The Toronto Blue Jays, For The Wins?

Brian Burress and his brand-spankin’ new 12.76 ERA and 2.54 WHIP will not be included in this article.  The main benefactor, Alexei Ramirez and his 5RBI, will also be left out of this discussion.

In case you haven’t figured out by now, the Jays are my home squad and while they’re not my favourite club — I manage to watch at least a few innings of each game.

As always, the small-sample size warning is in effect, but here are your Toronto Blue Jays with some quick analysis and statistics that stand out, at least to me. Read more

Fantasy Baseball

Chris Davis, TEX: Getting What You Paid For…

The day Christopher Davis hit puberty was the day his career path was set: Chris was going to be a Major League Baseball player, or an alcoholic State Trooper that sat at home polishing his revolver, cheek packed with chewing tobacco, watching, you guessed it, Major League Baseball.
Read more

Fantasy Baseball

Alexei Ramirez, CWS: Getting What You Paid For…

I consider myself an expert in fantasy baseball yet I still feel obliged to provide detailed background information and a step-by-step analysis to help you understand how I’ve come to this particular conclusion.  Unfortunately, people don’t want to read incredibly verbose ramblings — they just want to know who to pick up and who to drop.
Read more

Next Page »